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Who Survives the Iran Counter-Offensive?
Who Survives the Iran Counter-Offensive?
Iran has had enough. I think it’s fair to say that after 60+ years of U.S. aggression towards Iran that the decision to shoot down a U.S. drone represents an inflection point in world politics.
In the first few hours after the incident the fog of war was thick. But a day later much of it has cleared thanks to Iran’s purposeful poke at U.S. leadership by coming clean with their intentions.
Iran chose to shoot down this drone versus hitting the manned P-8 aircraft and then chose not to lie about it in public, but rather come forward removing any deniability they could have had.
#Iran’s purpose by shooting down the drone was to warn the “#US terrorist forces”” as it could also target an #American P-8 military aircraft that was flying next to MQ-4C drone, but it didn’t: Brigadier General Hajizadeh
They did this after President Trump’s comments yesterday during a news conference with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau where Trump described the attack as “a big mistake” and “not intentional.”
But it was intentional.
And the reason for this was that despite Trump’s assurances yesterday there is considerable debate as to where the drone actually was. According to a report from the NY Times (and buried deep in a very long article):
Still, there remained doubt inside the United States government over whether the drone, or another American surveillance aircraft, this one flown by a military aircrew, did violate Iranian airspace at some point, according to a senior administration official. The official said the doubt was one of the reasons Mr. Trump called off the strike — which could under international norms be viewed as an act of war.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
The New Tanker War – Trump Pampers the US Shale Oil Industry
The New Tanker War – Trump Pampers the US Shale Oil Industry
The situation in the Gulf of Oman is getting worse. After the attacks on two tankers, Khamenei said that he would never sit at the negotiating table with the US again.1)So Iran will continue its nuclear program till the Israeli strategists interpret its advancement as unacceptable and will have Iranian targets attacked. Up to this time a new tanker war is more likely than 30 years ago, of which Gefira warned already in autumn 2018. 2)Our forecasts proved correct.
The attacks could indeed have been carried out by Iranians, and it is quite possible that they were a provocation of the Americans. Such a hypothesis is justified by the analysis of the history of the conflict between the Great Satan and Iran. In August 1953, MI6 and CIA overthrew democratically elected Prime Minister Mohammed Mossadeq for wanting to nationalize the British Anglo-Iranian Oil Company (now BP). The company earned huge sums, of which Iran received hardly anything. The CIA’s Shah Reza Pahlavi, installed in place of Mossadeq, guaranteed the US that Iran would not cross over to the Soviet Union. With the help of the Americans3)he founded the secret service SAVAK, which suppressed the population, tortured and committed numerous murders.4)The Americans were not bothered by this for decades, but today they are outraged by the violation of human rights in Iran: indeed by the violation of their interests in the region.
The nationalization of oil production did not take place under Pahlavi. Almost half of the proceeds continued to go to American and British companies. As in Afghanistan and other countries of the world, Americans have invented their future enemies themselves.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Persian Gulf oil export peak after tanker attacks?
Persian Gulf oil export peak after tanker attacks?
Tankers holed and burning in the Gulf of Oman are not a good sign for future oil exports from the Persian Gulf.
https://in.reuters.com/article/mideast-tankers-facts/latest-on-suspected-attacks-on-tankers-in-gulf-of-oman-idINKCN1TE1H3
Oil exports from the Persian Gulf have been peaking in the last 3 years 2016-2018 at around 22.3 mb/d. That was before the US sanctions on Iran were tightened in the 1st half of 2019.
Exports are defined here as the difference between oil production (crude oil, condensate and NGLs) and oil consumption with latest data taken from the BP Statistical Review published 11/6/2019.
https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html
Let’s go through this country by country with a focus on the period since 2005 when global (conventional) crude oil production started to peak.
The drop in Saudi exports after 2005 happened in 2 phases: first, production decline until mid 2007 – which contributed to the oil price shock in 2008 and then secondly lower demand during the 2009 financial crisis. The warnings in Matt Simmons’ book “The coming Saudi oil shock and the world economy” has materialized to some extent without this being recognised by governments, the private sector, the media and the public at large.
30/10/2018 Saudi Update October 2018 http://crudeoilpeak.info/saudi-update-october-2018
5/7/2018 Saudi Arabia was supposed to pump almost 14 mb/d in 2018
http://crudeoilpeak.info/saudi-arabia-was-supposed-to-pump-almost-14-mbd-in-2018
Sanctions imposed on Iraq after Desert Storm were replaced by an oil for food program started in 1995. It limited Iraq’s oil exports to around 2 mb/d. The objective of the 2003 Iraq war was remove this cap. It was only in 2011 that this export level was exceeded.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
If The U.S. And Iran Go To War, Tens Of Thousands Of Missiles Will Rain Down On Israel
If The U.S. And Iran Go To War, Tens Of Thousands Of Missiles Will Rain Down On Israel
We could be on the verge of the most cataclysmic war that the Middle East has ever seen. As you will see below, we are being told that there will be a “measured” U.S. response to the downing of a U.S. Navy drone by Iranian forces. In other words, we should expect some sort of U.S. military action against Iran to happen soon. If the Iranians choose not to respond to that attack, that will hopefully be the end of it for a while. But if the Iranians respond by firing their highly advanced anti-ship missiles at U.S. warships in the Persian Gulf, the Trump administration would feel forced to use overwhelming force in return, and that would likely spark an all-out war in the region.
And in the event of an all-out war, Iran would almost certainly hit Israel with a massive barrage of missiles. In fact, last month the Iranian Parliament’s vice-speaker Ali Motahhari specifically threatened this sort of an attack…
Mr Motahhari told FARS news agency: ‘The US military forces’ deployment in the Persian Gulf is more of the nature of psychological warfare. They are not ready for a war, specially when Israel is within our range.’
Today, Iran possesses a highly sophisticated missile arsenal, and some of those missiles are capable of hitting targets up to 2,500 kilometers away. For an in-depth examination of Iranian missile capabilities, I would commend a National Interest article entitled “Iran Has Amassed the Largest Ballistic Missile Force in the Middle East”.
Of course if Iran starts firing missiles at Israel, it is inevitable that Israel will start firing missiles back at Iran. And in such a scenario it is unthinkable that Iran’s proxy Hezbollah would sit quietly on the sidelines.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
President Trump: Please Find A Way To Stop World War 3 From Erupting In The Middle East
President Trump: Please Find A Way To Stop World War 3 From Erupting In The Middle East
The moment that I heard that a U.S. Navy high altitude drone had been blown out of the sky by Iran, I realized that a very important threshold had just been crossed. We now find ourselves on the brink of World War 3, and one wrong move could unleash death and destruction on a scale that most of us don’t even want to think about. We have reached one of the most critical junctures in modern American history, and the key decisions will be made by just one man. When Donald Trump initially ran for president, he promised to stop the endless wars in the Middle East, but now we are potentially facing the biggest one of them all. More than 80 million people live in Iran, they have a highly sophisticated military, and they have been preparing for a military confrontation with the west for a very long time.
When the media asked President Trump about a possible military response to the drone being shot down, Trump responded by telling the assembled reporters “you’ll soon find out”. The following comes from a USA Today article entitled “A US attack could be imminent after Iranians shoot down drone over international waters”…
Hours after Iran announced that it shot down a U.S. drone, President Trump told journalists at the White House, “You’ll soon find out” if the U.S. is planning a strike on Iran in retaliation.
“They’re going to find out they made a very big mistake,”Trump added, in comments that came as he met with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
Needless to say, those words have led many to speculate that military action against Iran could come very quickly.
In addition, it is being reported that military officials gathered at the White House on Thursday to discuss various military options…
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Putin Warns Attack On Iran Would Be “Catastrophic” As US Navy Deploys To Drone Crash Site
Putin Warns Attack On Iran Would Be “Catastrophic” As US Navy Deploys To Drone Crash Site
Following China’s warning this week that the United States is poised to open “Pandora’s Box” in the Middle East should it escalate military action against Iran, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin has weighed in, on Thursday saying any American military strike would have “catastrophic” consequences.
Putin warned further that US attack “would trigger a surge in violence and a possible refugee exodus,” according to Reuters. During an annual televised question and answer session hosted by the Russian leader, he reiterated Moscow’s position that Tehran is in full compliance with its nuclear commitments under the 2015 JCPOA. He also slammed the US-imposed sanctions now choking the Iranian economy as “groundless”.
“I want to say at once that this would be a catastrophe for the region” — Putin said.
Meanwhile, President Trump has been briefed on Thursday morning’s dramatic escalation of an already tense stand-off in the Strait of Hormuz which involved Iran’s alleged shoot down of a US drone near entrance to Persian Gulf.
Reports say it was US Navy high-altitude drone taken out by an Iranian surface-to-air missile directly over Strait of Hormuz in what the US says was international airspace, but which Iran claimed was over its sovereign airspace. US Central Command (CENTCOM) identified the drone as one of its RQ-4 Global Hawk aircraft, condemning it as an “unprovoked attack”.
“Iranian reports that the aircraft was over Iran are false. This was an unprovoked attack on a U.S. surveillance asset in international airspace,” CENTCOM spokesman Navy Capt. Bill Urban said following the confirmed drone downing.
And now, in a pattern suggesting significant US military build-up will continue in the Persian Gulf following last week’s tanker attack incident, also blamed on Iran, US naval assets have been dispatched to the “drone debris field in international waters” according to a breaking Reuters report.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Oil Prices Spike Most In 5 Months As US-Iran Tensions Soar
Oil Prices Spike Most In 5 Months As US-Iran Tensions Soar
WTI and Brent prices spiked overnight on the headlines about a US drone being shot down by Iran, and just legged higher once again following Trump’s tweet warning that “Iran made a very big mistake.”
“Geopolitics is helping oil bulls to make a spectacular come-back after a few days’ of directionless trading,” said Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates Ltd. in London.
WTI now trades at its highest since May.
Not Enough Proof to Blame Iran for Oil Tanker Attack: Energy Aspects
Iran Shoots Down US Drone, Says “Ready For War”
Iran Shoots Down US Drone, Says “Ready For War”
Tensions between the US and Iran flared on Thursday when the Iranian Revolutionary Guard shot down an American drone that was said to have flown into Iranian airspace (the US claims the drone flew over international territory). The drone was reportedly flying over the Strait of Hormuz – that critical chokepoint for the global oil trade – not far from where two oil tankerswere recently attacked.
“We will defend Iran’s airspace and maritime boundaries with all our might,” Ali Shamkhani, secretary-general for the Supreme National Security Council was quoted as saying by state-run Islamic Students’ News Agency. “It doesn’t matter which country’s aircraft cross our airspace.
IRGC Commander Hossein Salami said shooting down the drone had sent a clear and strong message for the US: Iran’s borders are ‘red lines’ and though Iran doesn’t seek war, Iran is ready for war. The US, meanwhile, denies that the drone crossed into Iran’s airspace, and says it was in international airspace the whole time.
The drone reportedly was shot down over a village called Kuhmobarak in Iran’s Hormozgan province.
The news sent oil prices surging, with Brent up as much as 3%. President Trump has been briefed on the incident and the White House is “monitoring the situation.” The US military has branded the shooting “an unprovoked attack.”
The shooting follows attacks on six tankers in the region, which Iran has denied responsibility for (including the two from last week). On Wednesday, a news agency operated by Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen said that the rebels had hit a power station in Jazan, Saudi Arabia, with a cruise missile, though these reports weren’t independently verified.
Numerous geopolitical experts warned that Thursday’s incident “significantly raises” the prospects for international conflict.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Pompeo To Present Military “Options” To Trump As Iran Threatens Carriers With “Precision” Ballistic Missiles
Pompeo To Present Military “Options” To Trump As Iran Threatens Carriers With “Precision” Ballistic Missiles
Echoing prior comments from Tehran’s leaders that a US aircraft carrier in the Persian Gulf would set the stage fora “shooting gallery,” the commander of Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) warned Tuesday that its ballistic missiles are capable of hitting “carriers in the sea” with great precision.
“These missiles can hit with great precision carriers in the sea… These missiles are domestically produced and are difficult to intercept and hit with other missiles,” Brigadier General Hossein Salami said in a televised speech, per Reuters.A 2017 Iranian military drill involving missile test on a carrier mock-up in the Persian Gulf.
He also asserted that Iran’s ballistic missile technology had tipped the balance of power in the Middle East in Tehran’s favor, even with an increasing build-up of American forces in the region, including the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group deployed last month.
As we previously analyzed, it appears Tehran is now waging its own “maximum counter-pressure” campaign against the White House, given its been largely blocked from exporting its vitaltwo million barrels per day, and the US economic blockade sending its economy into a tailspin. Tehran could force Trump to choose among two bad options: see global oil squeezed with soaring prices due to a “tanker war” and military threats in the Strait of Hormuz, or commit US forces to yet another disastrous regime change war in the Middle East.
Iran appears ready to match threat for threat, as we mentioned: a real war is fast unfolding in the Middle East today, a war where oil tankers and oil delivery to the world (30% of world oil supply goes through the Gulf) are the targets. Brigadier General Hossein Salami
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Will A False Flag Iran War Cause A Financial Crisis?
Will A False Flag Iran War Cause A Financial Crisis?
Just a couple of weeks ago the financial world’s biggest worry was the plunging price of oil. Supply was up, stockpiles were building and speculation was pointing towards $40 a barrel, a price at which the fracking/shale oil “miracle” would evaporate. A trillion dollars of related junk debt would default, taking a big part of the leveraged speculating community along for the ride.
Then it all changed. Someone attacked some ships and oil infrastructure in the Middle East, the US and Saudi Arabia accused Iran, and now the fear is that a major regional war will interrupt the flow of oil, sending its price way up and causing a financial crisis at least as severe as a shale oil debt collapse.
This is a legitimate concern, for two reasons.
First, oil shocks have happened in the past, most notably during the Arab-Israeli war of the 1970s. So we know what they do, and it isn’t pretty. Gas prices jump, workers can’t afford their commute, the economy slows dramatically and pretty much everyone other than domestic energy companies suffers badly.
Second and potentially more serious, the pretext for this war is so blatantly false that it risks destroying what little creditability the US government has left. Think about it: With the US doing everything it can to delegitimize and destabilize Iran while positioning assets for an invasion, Iran’s leaders … start attacking oil tankers in its offshore waters.
Does that make sense? Of course not. Much more likely is that this is yet another false flag – that is, an incident faked to give a pretext for war – and a clumsy one at that.
For readers who aren’t clear on the false flag concept and its ubiquity in geopolitics, here are just a few of the dozens of documented examples:
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
“The Countdown Has Begun:” Iran Warns It Will Breach Uranium Stockpile Limits In 10 Days
“The Countdown Has Begun:” Iran Warns It Will Breach Uranium Stockpile Limits In 10 Days
Iran certainly isn’t planning on backing down in the face of Washington’s accusations about the country’s role in last week’s tanker bombings, and as a result, the possibility of a boots-on-the-ground military conflict in the Islamic Republic cannot yet be ruled out. Making an already tense situation infinitely more precarious, Iran on Monday reminded the world that it’s preparing to violate the terms of the Iran deal during the next ten days.
By increasing its stockpiles of enriched uranium, Iran is bound to elicit accusations that it’s once again working on a nuclear bomb. Tehran has always maintained that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, but American neocons like John Bolton have warned that this was merely a ruse, and that Iran could target American allies like Israel with a missile.
The Iranian government announced on Monday that it was set to breach the cap on enriched uranium, unless Europe finds a way to trade with Iran, or otherwise fulfill its financial obligations made under the deal.
European officials have been somewhat more skeptical of Iran’s role in last week’s tanker attacks, though many have acknowledged that if this were to be true, it could seriously complicate efforts to preserve the nuclear deal. German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas, who visited Tehran last week, said Germany is still looking at evidence on whether Iran was responsible for last week’s attacks. Meanwhile, the UK has decided to deploy 100 Elite Royal Marines to the region to serve as a “rapid reaction force” to protect British assets.
Behrouz Kamalvandi, a spokesperson for the Iranian atomic energy agency, said Iran has “already increased” uranium production at a nuclear research site in Natanz in the central Isfahan province, according to RT.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Did the B-Team Overplay its Hand Against Iran?
Did the B-Team Overplay its Hand Against Iran?
Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif has a term of endearment for Iran’s enemies, “The B-Team.”
The “B-Team” consists of U.S. National Security Advisor John Bolton, Israeli Prime Minister (nee Dictator) Benjamin Netanyahu, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman and the UAE’s Mohammed bin Zayed.
When we look seriously at the attacks on the oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman this week the basic question that comes to mind is, Cui bono? Who benefits?
And it’s easy to see how the B-Team benefits from this attack and subsequent blaming Iran for it. With Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in Tehran opening up a dialogue on behalf of U.S. President Donald Trump the threat of peace was in the air.
And none of the men on the B-Team profit from peace in the Middle East with respect to Iran. Getting Trump to stop hurling lightning bolts from the mountain top the B-Team guided him up would do nothing to help oil prices, which the Saudis and UAE need/want to remain high.
Bin Salman, in particular, cannot afford to see oil prices drop back into the $40’s per barrel. With the world awash in oil and supply tight, even with OPEC production cuts, Bin Salman is currently on very thin ice because of the Saudi Riyal’s peg to the U.S. dollar, which he can’t abandon or the U.S. will abandon them.
Falling oil prices and a rising dollar are a recipe for the death of the Saudi government, folks. Iran knows this.
Netanyahu and Bolton don’t want peace because the U.S. fighting a war with Iran serves the cause of Greater Israel and opens up the conflict in the hopes of regime change and elimination of Iran.
Bolton, as well, is finally feeling the heat of his incompetence and disloyalty to Trump, according to John Kirakau at Consortium News.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Think US Media Won’t Help Lead Nation Into War With Iran Based on Flimsy or False Intelligence? Looks Like They Already Are
Think US Media Won’t Help Lead Nation Into War With Iran Based on Flimsy or False Intelligence? Looks Like They Already Are
“Do U.S. reporters, anchors, and editors really want more Middle Eastern blood on their hands? If not, they need to fix their rather credulous and increasingly hawkish coverage of Iran—and fix it fast.”
CNN’s presentation of video footage released by the U.S. military. (Photo: CNN/Screengrab)
If there were any lingering hopes that the corporate media learned from its role in perpetuating the lies that led to the 2003 invasion of Iraq and would never again help start a Middle East war on the basis of false or flimsy evidence, the headlines that blared across the front pages of major U.S. news websites Thursday night indicated that such hopes were badly misplaced.
The U.S. military late Thursday released blurry, black-and-white video footage that it claimed—without any underlying analysis or further details—showed an Iranian patrol boat removing an unexploded limpet mine from the Japanese-owned Kokuka Courageous, one of the oil tankers damaged in attacks in the Gulf of Oman.
Here’s how CNN presented the U.S. military’s video:
Iran has denied any involvement in the attacks, and Yutaka Katada—the owner of the Kokuka Courageous—contradicted the Trump administration’s account during a press conference on Friday.
“Our crew said that the ship was attacked by a flying object,” Katada said. “I do not think there was a time bomb or an object attached to the side of the ship.”
Independent critics were quick to call for extreme skepticism in the face of U.S. government claims, given the quality of the “evidence” and the warmongering track records of those presenting it.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Waiting For The Black Swan
Waiting For The Black Swan
War with Iran would be the beginning of the end
Two more tankers were attacked near the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday morning (6/13/19) in the Gulf of Oman, and if hostilities advance we could be facing a ‘black swan’ event. One that changes everything, and divides the world into ‘before’ and ‘after’ periods.
A lot of us are waiting for ‘something’ to happen. We know that there are too many unsustainable trends and practices running and we fall into the “let’s just rip the Band-Aid off” camp. Some, like myself, have lost faith in the political leadership and institutions and doubt they retain any capacity to attend to anything more than their own selfish interests, let alone manage the difficult tasks ahead rooted as they are in systems theory and managing complexity.
So, let’s get on with it already. Bring it on. Black swans are welcome to those who feel a swift kick to the behind is sometimes needed to begin setting things straight.
Like many, I am also conflicted because I also know that getting onto a new path will be disruptive and probably quite economically and financially painful for everyone, myself included. Hoping for ‘something to break’ and hoping nothing breaks hang in an uneasy balance.
Luckily, my hopes and wishes have nothing to do with what’s going to happen, or when. I might as well be performing a secret hand ritual before the TV in my living room to ensure that my team’s basketball free-throw goes in. The dry tinder of the next bonfire was laid down over many years and decades and it will catch fire when it does, no matter how much denial or how many superstitious practices we employ.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Trump Says Tanker Attack Has “Iran Written All Over It” As Tehran Slams US “False Flag”
Trump Says Tanker Attack Has “Iran Written All Over It” As Tehran Slams US “False Flag”
Iran has slammed what it’s mission to the United Nations said are “unfounded and reckless” claims put forth yesterday by US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo accusing Iran of conducting the “blatant” attack on two international oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman on Thursday. Meanwhile President Trump on Friday morning told Fox & Friends that the tanker attacks had “Iran written all over it” and dismissed Iran as “a nation of terror.”
Notably, Iranian officials have accused the US or one of its allies of conducing a false flag operation as part of the “disinformation campaign” to continue its “maximum pressure” which aims at bringing Tehran into the cross hairs of a US-led war.
“The US and its regional allies must stop warmongering and put an end to mischievous plots and false flag operations in the region,” Iran’s mission to the United Nations said.
Issued late Thursday, the statement said further: “Warning, once again, about all of the US coercion, intimidation and malign behavior, Iran expresses concern over suspicious incidents for the oil tankers that occurred today.”
“The US economic war and terrorism against the Iranian people as well as the massive military presence in the region have been and continue to be the main sources of insecurity and instability in the wider Persian Gulf region and the most significant threat to its peace and security,” the statement continued.
Iran’s foreign minister also later described the US accusations as “sabotage diplomacy” following his previous comments posted to Twitter saying “Suspicious doesn’t begin to describe what likely transpired” — especially given Iran’s president and the Ayatollah were hosting Japanese Prime Minister Shinzō Abe to mediate nuclear deal matters and sanctions relief at the very moment the attack took place.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
