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Designing Collective Security | Olivia Lazard

Designing Collective Security | Olivia Lazard

Navigating existential crisis in a time of political and social upheaval

We’re breaking all kinds of records at the moment: cities are boiling at 62C, ocean temperatures are literally off the charts, and governments have increased the global defence budget to an alarming $2440 billion.

War costs life, and not just human life. The environmental impacts of war are colossal, with one study already showing that the first few months of Israel’s assault on Gaza emitted more carbon dioxide than 20 climate-vulnerable nations do in one year. Our ecosystems are at their breaking point, with six of nine planetary boundaries crossed. We need global collaboration to commit the huge systems overhaul necessary to survive the planetary crises and mitigate the catastrophic decisions of the last centuries.

Olivia Lazard, environmental peacemaker and research fellow at Carnegie Europe, joins me to discuss just how complex that task is, detailing the five steps of the Anthropocene and how violence increases at each step. We discuss these legacy systems of extraction and violence and how they are embedded into decisions being made around A.I., creating security risks in a resource-scarce world. We also cover the dematerialisation of our economies, the myths that blind us to energy and materials, before discussing the balance of power tipping our planet and human systems further into crisis.

EU Prepares to Tighten Screws on Russian LNG Imports

EU Prepares to Tighten Screws on Russian LNG Imports

Yamal LNG

In a move that could reshape Europe’s energy landscape, the European Commission is poised to propose new sanctions targeting Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports. According to Reuters sources close to the matter, the proposed measures will include a ban on shipments within the EU and sanctions on three Russian LNG projects.

The European Commission’s decision comes amid growing concerns over Europe’s reliance on Russian energy, particularly in the wake of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. While the EU imposed a ban on Russian seaborne oil imports earlier this year, it has thus far refrained from taking similar action against LNG imports. However, with imports of Russian LNG surging since the start of the war, accounting for around 15% of EU gas supply, pressure has been mounting on Brussels to act.

The proposed ban on trans-shipments within the EU is aimed at preventing the diversion of Russian LNG cargoes to other destinations. Currently, Belgium, France, and Spain are the largest importers of Russian LNG, with many of these imports being re-exported to other countries, including China. By imposing restrictions on trans-shipments, the EU hopes to ensure that Russian LNG does not find its way to markets outside of Europe.

In addition to the ban on trans-shipments, the European Commission is also considering sanctions on three Russian LNG projects – Arctic LNG 2, Ust Luga, and Murmansk. While the details of these sanctions are still being discussed, they are expected to target projects that are not yet operational, further complicating Russia’s efforts to expand its LNG exports.

The move by the European Commission reflects growing unease within the EU over its dependence on Russian energy. With tensions between Russia and the West showing no signs of abating…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Oil Markets Were Unwise But Right in the Israel-Iran Crisis

Energy Blog

The Middle East seemed to be on the brink of war last week and oil prices fell. Was the market wrong?

Brent futures price closed at $90.45 per barrel on Friday, April 12 before Iran’s missile and drone attack on Israel (Figure 1). When markets opened on Monday, April 15, prices rose less than $1 before ending lower and closing at $90.02 on Tuesday. After Israel’s counter-attack on Friday, April 19, Brent rose from $86.96 to almost $91 only to close at $87.29.

Brent futures price fell -$3.16 (-3%) from $90.45 to $87.29 for the week ending April 19
Figure 1. Brent futures price fell -$3.16 (-3%) from $90.45 to $87.29 for the week ending April 19. Source: CME & Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

This seems remarkable considering that oil flows through the Persian Gulf could have been disrupted. About 15.5 mmb/d (million barrels per day) of crude oil pass through the Strait of Hormuz (Figure 2). There’s an additional 5 mmb/d of refined products, and 10 bcf of liquefied natural gas.

Crude oil volumes that passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the first half of 2023.
Figure 2. Crude oil volumes that passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the first half of 2023. Source: Modified from @Nate Hagens with EIA data & Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

There was a time when military outbreaks in the Middle East would have caused a sharp increase in world oil prices. Figure 3 shows a comparison of Brent price in the one hundred days following the 1990 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and after the 2023 Hamas attacks on Israel.

Figure 3. Comparison of Brent price in the one hundred days following the 1990 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and after the 2023 Hamas attacks on Israel. Source: Bloomberg and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.
Figure 3. Comparison of Brent price in the one hundred days following the 1990 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and after the 2023 Hamas attacks on Israel. Source: @johnauthers (Bloomberg) and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

It’s worth pointing out that there is no major oil production in Israel or in surrounding countries. The involvement of Iran in the recent conflict, however, makes these two events comparable at least in the last few weeks.

There are a slew of mainstream narratives for oil market’s phlegmatic reaction to recent attacks in the Middle East.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Oil prices aren’t the Fed’s biggest problem right now — American demand is, says an economist

Oil prices aren’t the Fed’s biggest problem right now — American demand is, says an economist

Inflation could see a resurgence in 2025, BlackRock strategists warned.
Inflation could see a resurgence in 2025, BlackRock strategists warned. Jonathan Kitchen/Getty Images

“I think what’s difficult for the Fed currently is actually the part of CPI that is being driven by demand, rather than the supply issues or the energy issues, which are perhaps easier to deal with,” Samy Chaar, the chief economist of Lombard Odier, told Bloomberg TV. The Swiss private bank managed 193 billion Swiss francs, or $212.8 billion, in assets at the end of December.

A key inflation metric for the Fed, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, was little changed in March over its 2.8% reading in February. Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell highlighted the index earlier this week as he signaled that interest rate cuts may come later, rather than sooner.

The US economy has been strong, with job growth and retail sales also rising more than expected for the month of March.

“The problem with the US is the sticky part that comes from services. Services is demand, and that demand needs to come from somewhere — and that’s a robust economy,” Chaar told Bloomberg. A gauge from the Institute for Supply Management showed the US service sector expanded moderately in March.

“Consumers are consuming because they have jobs, because they have rising incomes,” Chaar said.

This means inflation is fueled by demand rather than oil supply, even if a rise in energy prices complicates the Fed’s job, he said.

The Fed is now trying to engineer a soft landing for the hot US economy without causing it to tip into a recession.

“I would say the biggest challenge here for the Fed is to manage the demand of the US economy,” Chaar said. “It comes from domestic America, not from the Middle East.”

‘Where can you hide from pollution?’: cancer rises 30% in Beirut as diesel generators poison city

Lebanon’s economy and electricity system are broken and much power is now generated locally, with devastating effects on air quality and health

Smog hangs over Beirut most days, a brownish cloud that darkens the city’s skyline of minarets and concrete towers. An estimated 8,000 diesel generators have been powering Lebanese cities since the nation’s economic collapse in 2019. The generators can be heard, smelled and seen on the streets, but their worst impact is on the air the city’s inhabitants are forced to breathe.

New research, to be published by scientists at American University of Beirut (AUB), has found that the Lebanese capital’s over-reliance on the diesel generators in the past five years has directly doubled the risk of developing cancer. Rates of positive diagnosis, oncologists say, are shooting up.

“The results are alarming,” says Najat Saliba, an atmospheric chemist who led the study. In the area of Makassed, one of the more densely populated parts of Beirut tested, levels of pollution from fine particulates – that is, less than 2.5 micrometres in diameter (PM2.5) – peaked at 60 micrograms a cubic metre, four times the 15 mcg/m³ level the World Health Organization says people should be not exposed to for more than 3-4 days a year.

Since 2017, the last time AUB took these measurements, the level of carcinogenic pollutants emitted into the atmosphere has doubled across three areas of Beirut. Saliba says calculations suggest cancer risk will have risen by approximately 50%.

The Beirut skyline, just visible in the far distance amid a haze of smog caused by traffic and generators
The Beirut skyline is just visible amid a haze of smog. Photograph: NurPhoto/Getty Images

“It’s directly related,” she says. “We calculate the cancer risk based on the carcinogen materials emitted from diesel generators, some of which are classified as category 1A carcinogens.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

I Saw the Future of Europe… In India

I Saw the Future of Europe… In India

This is definitely not going to be an article what the title may suggest. At least not for those who still believe in the mainstream paradigm, according to which “everything can only get better with time”. This is also not going to be an article on the subcontinent’s culture or policies. No, this one is about something entirely different, something totally contraintuitive to the technutopist narrative.


I have an admission to make: I do enjoy browsing and watching YouTube videos without any particular goal in mind. You know, just gazing at “random” suggestions from the Home page of the application. Of course, these are neither random, nor unintended recommendations: the algorithm knows full well who I am, what I’m interested in, what type of videos I watch during the day, and what close to bedtime. Nevertheless, I still find it fun to play along, and indulge in watching some of the suggested videos from time to time. As a person involved heavily in dealing with manufacturing and supply chain issues as his daily job, I’m do interested in how stuff is made, and yes, sometimes enjoy watching complex machinery doing their work. (Yes, I’m fully aware that all of these technologies are wholly unsustainable, however that fact alone was unable to slain my fascination towards engineering ingenuity.)

I don’t know how or why, but after watching quite a number of videos featuring high tech manufacturing processes, the algorithm managed to surprise me with a few recordings on how some of the stuff is actually made in India. Let me tell you in advance, that I’ve been traveling extensively on business the past few decades, from North America to China, and saw quite interesting things in both places…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Oil Companies Must Set Aside More Money to Plug Wells, a New Rule Says. But It Won’t Be Enough.

For the first time in more than 60 years, the Bureau of Land Management will force oil and gas companies to set aside more money to guarantee they plug old wells, preventing them from leaking oil, brine and toxic or climate-warming gasses.

The rule, finalized this month, comes at a critical time. Money previously set aside to clean up wells on federal land would have covered the cost of fewer than 1 out of 100, according to the government’s own estimates, and the vast majority of the country’s wells sit inactive or barely producing, meaning they’ll soon need to be plugged.

But the federal agency’s work falls short of protecting taxpayers from the oil industry’s cleanup costs, according to a ProPublica and Capital & Main review of contracts or other cost estimates at tens of thousands of wells across the country. While the updated rule will shrink the gap between companies’ financial guarantees to plug wells, known as bonds, and the cost of the work, it still leaves a significant shortfall.

One math error alone leaves taxpayers on the hook for roughly $400 million more than they should be. A Bureau of Land Management employee’s arithmetic mistake yielded an incorrect average cleanup cost for wells that the agency has plugged, largely at taxpayer expense. That artificially low cost estimate became the foundation of the new bonding requirements.

When ProPublica and Capital & Main pointed out the error in December, and that it could potentially cost taxpayers — and save oil companies — hundreds of millions of dollars when multiplied across the many thousands of wells the new rule would touch, the agency downplayed the miscalculation.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Strait of Hormuz and ‘the Spice’

The Strait of Hormuz and ‘the Spice’

Frankly #61

In this week’s Frankly, I’d like to highlight the importance of the Strait of Hormuz, a global supply chain choke point where nearly half of the world’s oil available for export travels through on a daily basis. In the midst of high-stakes geo-political events where threats (and misery) from warring nations dominate the discourse, we remain (mostly) energy blind to the bottlenecks that lie at the center of these conflicts, which if disrupted could send our liquid-combustible-fuel dependent economies crashing.

How could the threat of expanding regional wars – especially Iran’s potential response in the Strait of Hormuz – impact the world’s reliance on the flow of oil? Who are the people making world-altering decisions – and do they have the best interest of the future in mind? Can a heightened awareness of our global system’s dependency on fragile energy supply chains shift our focus away from escalating risks towards deconfliction and peace?



In case you missed it…

Last week, I was joined by Luther Krueger to discuss one example of a category of innovation that I’ve taken to calling ‘Goldilocks tech’ – which uses accessible and abundant materials to achieve important tasks for human societies with less or considerably less energy and material throughput. In the western world, most of us are used to indoor, gas or electric stoves, typically powered by fossil fuels, and in a third of the world, people are still using solid fuels – wood, coal, or dung – which come with many health and environmental risks. Solar ovens are an alternative which makes use of passive solar energy at a range of temperatures and can be made from basic or reused materials.

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EROEI and Civilization’s Forced Decline

EROEI and Civilization’s Forced Decline

EROEI (Energy Return on Energy Invested) is possibly the most important ratio to human existence. This measure is foundational to our civilization, yet understood by few.

EROEI and Civilization's Forced Decline
Photo by NASA / Unsplash
EROEI (Energy Return on Energy Invested) is possibly the most important ratio to human existence. This measure is foundational to our civilization, yet understood by few.

EROEI is why we’re able to support 8 billion humans, why atmospheric CO2 is 425ppm and also why human civilization will eventually collapse.

It’s an essential metric that explains why we have computers, retirement funds and air travel. It’s essential to our progress as a species. This has been true since the dawn of agriculture and is even more so in a post-industrialized world.

To help broaden understanding of this deceivingly simply measure, I’m writing the following primer on EROEI.


What is EROEI?

EROEI is a metric used to evaluate the efficiency of energy production systems. It measures the amount of energy obtained from a particular source compared to the amount of energy invested to harness that energy. The formula used is:

Rethinking Growth Part Two - Pure Advantage

Example of EROEI: Solar Panels

Consider a solar panel system:

  1. Energy Invested: This includes the energy used in manufacturing the solar panels, transporting them, installing them, and maintaining them over their lifespan.
  2. Energy Produced: This is the energy the solar panels generate during their operational lifetime.

If a solar panel system uses 1,000 units of energy for its entire process (from manufacturing to operation) and generates 10,000 units of energy in its lifetime, the EROEI would be 10. This means that for every unit of energy invested, ten units of energy are returned.

EROEI in Agriculture: An Example of Caloric Return Versus Energy Investment

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Israeli Missiles Hit Iran, the Price of Oil Jumps 3 Percent

In a game of tit for tat, Israel strikes back at Iran for Iran’s missile launch against Israel. Iran’s attack on Israel was in response for Israel illegally striking an Iranian embassy in Syria.

Israeli Missiles Hit Site in Iran

The NPR reports Israel launches missile strikes into Iran in response to Tehran’s attack Sunday

Reuters reports Israeli Missiles Hit Site in Iran.

Israeli missiles have hit a site in Iran, ABC News reported late on Thursday, citing a U.S. official, while Iranian state media reported an explosion in the center of the country, days after Iran launched a retaliatory drone strike on Israel.

Iran’s Fars news agency said an explosion was heard at an airport in the central city of Isfahan but the cause was not immediately known. Iran suspended flights over the cities of Isfahan, Shiraz and Tehran, state media reported.

Several Iranian nuclear sites are located in Isfahan province, including Natanz, centerpiece of Iran’s uranium enrichment program.

Some Emirates and Flydubai flights that were flying over Iran early on Friday made sudden sharp turns away from the airspace, according to flight paths shown on tracking website Flightradar24.

Israeli Missile Hits Iran, U.S. Officials Confirm

CBS reports Israeli Missile Hits Iran, U.S. Officials Confirm

Two U.S. officials confirm to CBS News that an Israeli missile has hit Iran. The strike follows last weekend’s retaliatory drone and missile attack against Israel, which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had vowed to respond to.

Officials were tightlipped about the location or extent of the Israeli strike. When reached by CBS News, the Israeli Defense Forces had no comment on the attack.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Is There a Road Map for What’s Ahead?

Is There a Road Map for What’s Ahead?

One of our primary survival traits is the ability to anticipate the future to avoid threats and reap higher yields. We seek a vantage point to view the road ahead, or even better a road map to what’s ahead.

Is there a road map to what’s ahead?  An enormous amount of research and projections are issued daily, proposing answers to the question: what happens next?

In my view, a good starting point is to recall that there are critical differences between open systems and closed systems. A clock is a closed system, and so its functions are predictable.  An ecosystem is an open system, and so predictions are contingent on an unknowably large number of potential changes in inputs, processes and feedback: new invasive species may arrive and displace native species, predators might be decimated by a new disease, etc.

But even open systems operate according to principles we can discern, and so they are not entirely unpredictable or chaotic. For example, when a keystone species is wiped out, the entire ecosystem collapses.

The immense powers of modern technology, engineering, cheap energy and mass media have created an illusory aura of human agency, that we can control our future in the same way we control machinery. This aura has also created a sense that human leaders or elites control our world with god-like powers of precision. This too is an illusion, as the contingencies, forces, feedbacks and second-order effects of open systems are beyond the control of any human leadership.

Consider the collapse of marriage and birthrates globally; leaders recognize the threat this poses and have tried to reverse the tide, with little effect.  Some propose that these dynamics are the result of secret agendas to reduce the human populace, but the causal links required by this theory are not persuasive:…

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Almost Everything is About Oil in the Middle East

Energy Aware

Perhaps the most extraordinary part of Iran’s April 13 attack on Israel was that it was countered by a coalition that included Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). It is also noteworthy that this was the first time that the United States engaged militarily in Israel’s defense.

The events of April did not begin with the October 6, 2023 strike on Israel from Gaza but have their origins decades earlier. It is now evident, however, that the catalyst for Hamas’ attack was the impending normalization of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel.

This would have had significant consequences for Israel’s oil supply, an important aspect of the present crisis that is rarely discussed by the press or politicians. Almost everything is about oil in the Middle East.

The Saudis were ready to join the Abraham Accords that in 2020 established ties between the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, Morocco and Israel on regional security and trade.

As a direct consequence, Israel was officially moved under the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility in early 2021, shifting from its decades-long alignment with the U.S. European Command (EUCOM).

The timing of the Gaza incursion into Israel in October was designed to prevent Saudi Arabia from joining the Abraham Accords.

It is hardly a coincidence that Houthi attacks on shipping in the Suez Canal and the Red Sea started in November. Almost 9 million barrels of oil per day (mmb/d) pass through the Canal and the Bab al-Mandab Strait.

It’s worth recalling that the Houthis have been in an armed conflict with Saudi Arabia in Yemen since 2015, and were responsible for attacking the main Saudi refinery complex in 2019. Both Hamas and the Houthis, along with Hezbollah in Lebanon, are funded and largely directed by Iran.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

AI Computing Is on Pace to Consume More Energy Than India, Arm Says

(Bloomberg) — AI’s voracious need for computing power is threatening to overwhelm energy sources, requiring the industry to change its approach to the technology, according to Arm Holdings Plc Chief Executive Officer Rene Haas.

By 2030, the world’s data centers are on course to use more electricity than India, the world’s most populous country, Haas said. Finding ways to head off that projected tripling of energy use is paramount if artificial intelligence is going to achieve its promise, he said.

“We are still incredibly in the early days in terms of the capabilities,” Haas said in an interview. For AI systems to get better, they will need more training — a stage that involves bombarding the software with data — and that’s going to run up against the limits of energy capacity, he said.

Haas joins a growing number of people raising alarms about the toll AI could take on the world’s infrastructure. But he also has an interest in the industry shifting more to Arm chips designs, which are gaining a bigger foothold in data centers. The company’s technology — already prevalent in smartphones — was developed to use energy more efficiently than traditional server chips.

Arm, which began trading on the Nasdaq last year after 2023’s largest US initial public offering, sees AI and data center computing as one of its biggest growth drivers. Amazon.com Inc.’s AWS, Microsoft Corp. and Alphabet Inc. are using Arm’s technology as the basis of in-house chips that help run their server farms. As part of that shift, they’re decreasing reliance on off-the-shelf parts made by Intel Corp. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc.

By using more custom-built chips, companies can lessen bottlenecks and save energy, according to Haas. Such a strategy could reduce data center power by more than 15%.

“There needs to be broad breakthroughs,” he said. “Any piece of efficiency matters.”

Severe energy crisis paralyzes Ecuador for two days

Severe energy crisis paralyzes Ecuador for two days

President Daniel Noboa has suspended work and school on Thursday and Friday, and accuses the outgoing energy minister of having hidden the problem

Energy crisis Ecuador
A student reads a text by candlelight in Quito, Ecuador, on April 17, 2024.JOSÉ JÁCOME (EFE)

Ecuador is in the dark. Not only because the more-than-seven-hour long blackouts continued throughout the country on Wednesday, despite the presidential announcement that they would be suspended, but also because it’s not known who is behind the crisis in the energy sector, nor the scale of the problem. Decisions taken by the Ecuadorian government have provided some clues. For example, the president of Ecuador, Daniel Noboa, signed a decree that will paralyze the country for two days. On Thursday and Friday, school will be suspended and there will be no work in either the public or private sectors.

The document said that the move is to ensure “rest and leisure,” but a few hours after it was signed, the underlying reason for the move was revealed: the critical conditions of the two most important reservoirs that provide water to the country’s hydroelectric plants. “Mazar is registering an operational storage level of 0% and Paute of 4%,” said a statement from the presidency. Ecuador’s electricity provider CENACE said the situation has reached record lows, warning that the energy deficit in the country is up to 27 gigawatts per day.

The Ecuadorian government said that based on a preliminary investigation carried out by the new energy minister, Roberto Luque, the crisis is not only related to the lack of rain that has extended the drought period, but to acts of corruption and negligence by high-level Energy Ministry officials, including former minister Andrea Arrobo. “They intentionally hid information crucial for the functioning of the national energy system,” the statement said…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Russian Refineries Install Nets as Protection From Drone Attacks

Russian Refineries Install Nets as Protection From Drone Attacks

Russian oil company Bashneft, part of state-controlled giant Rosneft, has installed metal mesh at its refineries to protect them from drone attacks from Ukraine, Russian media reported on Friday, quoting Radiy Khabirov, the head of the Bashkortostan region where Bashneft is based.

“We don’t stop there. There are a number of solutions there, which I won’t talk about yet. They are classified. But believe me, we worry about this very much,” the Bashinform agency quoted Khabirov as saying.

This year, Ukraine has intensified attacks on oil refineries in Russia, which have reduced Russian refining capacity, and which, reportedly, have the White House concerned about rising international prices.

The United States has repeatedly urged Ukraine to halt its drone attacks on Russian oil refineries due to Washington’s assessment that the strikes could lead to Russian retaliation and push up global oil prices, the Financial Times reported last month, citing sources familiar with the exchange.

The drone attacks from Ukraine on Russian refineries could disrupt fuel markets globally, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said last week, estimating that up to 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) of Russia’s refinery capacity could be offline in the second quarter.

Russia has brought back online some oil refining units in recent weeks, reducing the capacity taken offline by Ukrainian drone hits to around 10%, from 14% at the end of March, calculations by Reuters showed earlier this week.

The refining capacity in Russia that is currently offline due to drone attacks is now estimated by Reuters at around 660,000 barrels per day (bpd), compared to 907,000 bpd offline at the end of March.

Still, maintenance and other outages at Russia’s refineries will actually raise the refining capacity that will be offline this month compared to March, according to Reuters’s data and calculations.

Russia said in early April it could repair all damaged units within two months. Russia’s Energy Minister Nikolai Shulginov has said that all damaged refineries in the country would be restarted by the beginning of June.

Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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