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At Last – Solar Minimum Discussions Begin

At Last – Solar Minimum Discussions Begin 

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong; You are the only one with your computer that has correctly forecast the weather years in advance. I understand these are not some premonition of you on a personal level. That means putting the major trends together as you do actually produce results.

My hat’s off to you.

Cheers from bitterly cold UK

NG

REPLY: It is amazing to me that we are still in the Stone Age when it comes to forecasting even weather. You are correct. This is NOT based upon a personal intuition or opinion. I am merely reporting what the computer is forecasting and why. Sorry, nobody speaks to me in my dreams or anything. I cannot even pretend that my opinion is better than someone else’s. There is no room for personal opinions in such matters.

Nevertheless, at last, there are people finally starting to talk about solar minimum and the DEEP FREEZE. There has been extremely cold weather, a WARNING that is finally being heard. Solar minimum has ARRIVED and could last for more than a DECADE, as many are starting to warn. The problem with this reality is that weather is impacted by Mother Nature. Then people like Alexandria OcasioCortez demand higher taxes to create her Green New Deal outlawing air travel. Even the National Geographic is starting to remember the Deep Freeze of 1709. Even the BBC was forecasting a Deep Freeze. Others were calling it the “‘Beast from the East’ to plunge Europe into a historic deep freeze.”

The European Crisis of Philosophy is the Destruction of the European Union

The European Crisis of Philosophy is the Destruction of the European Union 

The entire project of creating the Euro was a means to allow Northern Europe to effectively takeover Southern Europe and impose its philosophy in a totally one-sided arrangement. I have stated plenty of times that all the debts of member states should have been consolidated into the central Euro debt and thereafter each state would be on its own as is the case in the United States. But from the outset, this was like pretending to be one family, but you do not really want to associate with your drunken brother-in-law who is always asking for money. Oh yes, you have to pretend to be nice at funerals and weddings. But that is where family ends. The European Union is no different.

The crisis brewing here is monumental and it will tear the European Union apart at the seams. There is this crisis that because the Euro was NEVERdesigned properly to begin with, Brussels is trying to enforce its demands upon every member state to maintain austerity regardless of the consequences domestically in each member state.  When Southern European states joined the Euro, they had to convert all past debts from their local currency to the Euro. What happened was not only their national debts DOUBLED in real terms, but ALL PRIVATE debts also DOUBLED. Suddenly, banks that had lent Italian lira were now demanding to be paid in Euro which doubled in real value. Nonperforming loans skyrocketed and every politicians blamed the bankers for their own misguided creation of the Euro.

Noe the crisis in philosophy is rising to the surface. The new Italian government wants to provide €1.5 billion to compensate savers for bank failures. Brussels is insisting that violates their bail-in rules and cannot be done.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

New Monetary Theory is Like Sleepwalking

New Monetary Theory is Like Sleepwalking 

QUESTION: Bernie Sanders was basing his whole economic proposal to just keep spending and make everything free. They seem to be teaching this in school now. This macroeconomic theory whereby a country’s spending is only constrained not by revenue in taxes but by inflation when it creates a sovereign currency. It seems too good to be true, but some economists were teaching this to my son. Would you care to comment on this theory?

JH

ANSWER: The problem with what many call “new” or “modern” monetary theory is that it is like sleepwalking. You walk, creating GDP, while you are also dreaming. It reminds me of Shakespeare:

“To die, to sleep–To sleep–perchance to dream: ay, there’s the rub, for in that sleep of death what dreams may come when we have shuffled off this mortal coil, must give us pause.”

This economic theory is the same old incantation — how to prosper with other people’s money. Rome had no national debt and no central bank. It created money to fund itself. In hard times, they used the law to confiscate the property of people as they are doing today with their civil asset forfeitures.

What is missing in this theory is the question of debt. They assume they can borrow without end and never have to account for what they have done. They fail to understand that concept and try to regulate pension funds, which requires them to obtain government debt that they never pay off.

Yes, you can just create money to fund the government and it is confined by inflation. That is a true statement if taken by itself. However, you cannot then borrow with no intention of paying down the debt because the accumulative interest payments will end up representing 100% of the debt. This theory fails for it ignores dealing with the debt.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Business Cycle & Why They Pretend it Cannot be Forecast

The Business Cycle & Why They Pretend it Cannot be Forecast 

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I have studied you Economic Confidence Model and found it to be extremely accurate in forecasting the business cycle. When I showed it to my professor here at ——— he responded that itis impossible to forecast the business cycle. He would not even engage in a conversation about it. Why are they so intimidated by your work?

Thank you

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ANSWER: What you have to understand is that IF it is possible to forecast the business cycle, then that means politics have to change. The entire system is based upon the proposition of vote for me and I will reduce unemployment and bring world peace unless I do not like the people. If you listen to Larry Summers, he states that if you could forecast the business cycle, that would be bad because it would become a self-fulfilling prophecy. He also states that the economy is far too complex, like weather, with way too many moving components that make it impossible to forecast. That means the door is open to manipulate the economy, as he suggested with negative interest rates. When that failed, he then discovered there was the zero interest boundary where people would withdraw their cash from banks and defeat his negative interest tool. He has thus advocated eliminating physical paper money to allow his negative interest rate idea to then work — so he maintains. He ignores, of course, the entire pension fund system.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Revolution – Why it is Always Inevitable?

Revolution – Why it is Always Inevitable? 

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, I just went to see Les Miserables with my wife. I was really moved for it was indeed how history repeats. It just seems we always end up in the same position because government never changes.

PB

ANSWER: Unfortunately, socialistic governments pretend that they are taking your money for your own benefit. The excuses are endless. Nevertheless, they constantly oppress the people by taking an ever increasing portion of their net disposable income, crushing them into the dust. The motives seem to change, but the end is always the same. This is why the Founding Fathers forbid direct taxation. That was such a critical deterrent to prevent revolution. The governments followed Marx at the beginning of the 20th century, and then convinced themselves that they were doing it to care for the people. In the process, they paid themselves pensions that no one else could possibly attain. Forbidding direct taxation was the only possible way to prevent the recurrence of revolution.

Professor Jordan on Climate Change – the Reality 

Professor Jordan on Climate Change – the Reality 

Nothing Can be Reduced to a Single Cause & Effect be it Markets or Nature

Nothing Can be Reduced to a Single Cause & Effect be it Markets or Nature 

QUESTION: Dear Mr. Armstrong,

Thanks for the Socrates forecast.

Just a question. What will possibly happen to existing Tropic Belt countries like my region South East Asia when the world is turning into global cooling? Any forecast?

Regards,

SS

ANSWER: I am awaiting their data to run it through and see what comes out. This is what I mean about opinion. How can anyone forecast something without the data? What we do know is also that the Jet Stream moves up and down, so it would make sense that the Tropic Belt would also do the same. The Jet Stream has been dipping as well and creating a very diverse curve pattern. So this produced the COLDEST New Year’s Eve on record last year. This is also why you have people who want to claim it is irrelevant if people die of cold in Wales. They argue that since it is warm where they are in Canada, it must prove that Global Warming is real. They are not the brightest bulb in the box.

Then we have the Pacific Jet Stream. These people who always try to reduce any effect to a single cause should be barred from any research EVER!!! If you want to understand how interconnected our planet is then you also need to look at and study El Niño. The interconnectivity is similar to all the world financial markets, which create a level of complexity beyond most human’s ability to rationalize. Both the weather system and the financial system function on an extremely high level of complexity. The patterns and events in one place can affect life on the other side of the planet in both systems.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Climate Change & Commodities

Climate Change & Commodities 

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I love the fact that you look at everything from a pure cyclical perspective. Al Gore who started this whole mess was not a climatologist. He was a politician. You are 100% correct that people will believe what they want to believe. There is no talking to one of this idiots. When there is a food shortage, they will be the first to advocate taking food from those who did prepare. Did wheat rise in value during the Dust Bowl because of the decline in supply? They don’t have wheat charts that go back that far on ____ system.

WP

ANSWER: You cannot forecast the future of anything in isolation. I only look at the cycles. The computer correlates absolutely everything including the weather. The correlation models show that we are heading into a colder period. This is when crops fail and the ground freezes as far down as two feet, which makes winter crops impossible. We are also heading into a solar minimum and that is when there are far more volcanic eruptions and earthquakes. All I can say is that it appears that when the ECM turns, the next wave will be back to an inflationary run and we should also see a rise in commodity prices. We have two major trends behind that: 1) weather, and 2) fiscal mismanagement resulting in currency value changes.

The Dust Bowl Rally in wheat was about 245% advance 420 to 1452. What also came into play, interestingly enough, was the devaluation of the dollar in 1934 from $20.67 for one ounce of gold to $35. That was effectively a near 70% devaluation of the dollar. We are approaching our Monetary Crisis Cycle, which will again mark the decline in purchasing power of world currencies. Just maybe we will see a very similar convergence of trends that took place during the Dust Bowl era.Categories:AgricultureClimate
Tags:Climate ChangeDust BowlGlobal Warming

We are All Connected & for an End Game Purpose

We are All Connected & for an End Game Purpose 

COMMENT:  Dear Mr. Armstrong,
I’m reading your blog for 10 years, every single day, first thing in the morning. It changed me and my views on events in pretty much everything.
I want to say a heartfelt THANK YOU for your titanic work, that you made available to people around the world, changing them for the better.
I don’t know how you are able to wear so many hats plus write for us every single day. You are one of those few geniuses, like A. Einstein, who expand the horizons for many.
Happy New Year 2019, dear Martin! I wish you and your team all the best in the new year and on for always!
Yours Truly,
VL (Russia)

REPLY: I know, I seem to be addicted to work. Thank you very much for your comment. From my side, I am very glad we have so many readers in Russia. There were 37 countries represented at the WEC event in Orlando this year. It was Margaret Thatcher who remarked to me that I reminded her of Winston Churchill. She said we both had a passion for history and we were the best at what we took interest in. Maggie told me she entered politics before 1948. She was a member of the Conservative activist “Vermin Club,” and she ran for Parliament in 1950, 1951, 1954, and finally won her first seat in 1959. She knew Churchill and served in Parliament with him as an MP for five years until Winston left Parliament in 1964. She understood cycles and even spoke at our conference back in 1996.

My philosophy is we learn something from every person we meet, be it good or bad. Our clients have always been special. They are themselves all geniuses because a genius is NOT someone who knows everything.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

When will Niagara Falls Completely Freeze?

When will Niagara Falls Completely Freeze? 

It has been a bitterly cold season. Niagara Falls became a winter wonderland as frigid temperatures cause the falls to turn to ice. This is not so rare as people claim. In this 1911 photo of the Great Freeze, you can still see water flowing, but minimal and nowhere near the normal volume flow (hundreds of thousands of gallons per second) that we see in summer. Niagara Falls was a famous tourist spot. I remember as a child my parents traveling there to see the splendor. It use to be a big honeymooners’ destination before air travel. Historically, Niagara Falls does “freeze” but it is extremely rare to “completely” freeze.

The Falls have a lot of ice on them today during this bitterly cold winter. But they have not reach the historic cold period at the beginning of the 20th century. Still, cyclically speaking, it is right on time. The gold we have witnessed so far is ideally going to peak probably around 2023. Perhaps at that point in time we will see the falls also almost freeze completely. The only recorded incident of the Niagara Falls completely freezing so NO WATER flowed appeared to be 1848. That was the only documented incident on record when Niagara Falls was frozen completely during March of 1848. It was the Buffalo Express Newspaper that reported the shocking complete freeze was caused by ice damming at the mouth of Lake Erie. Our model indicates that if we see colder temperature BEYOND2023, then cyclically the peak will unfold in 2037.

Panic Cycles v Waterfall Events

Panic Cycles v Waterfall Events 

COMMENT: Hi There,
I suggest you do an article on the terminology you use.For example I noted that on your commentary on centamin Egypt you use the term waterfall pattern. You also you use the term panic cycle.An article on these words and their meaning would be helpful.
Thanks

S

REPLY: We do have terminology is the Glossary on this site. The Waterfall Event is a term I coined to describe what I discovered in the study of the rise and fall of empires, nations, and city-states. This differs from a Panic Cycle which reflects just a short-term increase in volatility, which can exceed the previous session high and penetrate the previous session low or make a big move in one direction.  They do not imply the destruction of the system being observed or an individual market.

I have encountered the Waterfall Events such as the collapse of Venice to the 1931 Sovereign DebtCrisis where the foreign government bonds listed on the New York Stock Exchange simple defaulted and went to zero. Thus, the Waterfall is a sharp collapse that will unfold in a market with a decline of generally greater than 50%.

The Difference between 2020 and 2032

The Difference between 2020 and 2032 

QUESTION: Hi Martin,

My girlfriend brought up a point about your work during coffee this morning. Basically, she’s confused about the two dates you often mention, 2020 and 2032. She wants to know which date (2020, 2032) you expect the markets move into crises mode due to the lack of confidence in government. I tried to explain but my insight wasn’t good enough.

Could you explain in a future blog the difference between these dates and what you (Socrates) expect to happen during these points in time?

Thanks,
J

ANSWER: The 2032 date is the conclusion of this Private Wave. That is when the power of the West will begin to shift to China for the next cycle that begins thereafter. The 2020 date is when the confidence begins to noticeably begin to turn down for the AVERAGE person.  You can “feel” it in the air already. What the Democrats have done is simply unbelievable. Sure the people who hate Trump cheer. But they fail to understand the system. Whatever they do to the Republicans sets the stage for what will be considered “normal” for the Republicans to do to the Democrats if power shifts.

I have explained that the Democratic victory in the House was really a disaster for this has allowed nothing but the next two years to be confrontation as we are witnessing on the funding of the wall which is only $5.7 billion. In Fiscal Year 2019, the federal budget will be $4.407 trillion. The U.S. government estimates it will receive $3.422 trillion in revenue. That creates a $985 billion deficit for October 1st, 2018 through September 30, 2019. Not only is this less than a single week’s interest payment of $6.7 billion, it is .001% of the annual budget. It is so meaningless it illustrates my point. The Democrats think all they have to do is demonize Trump and OPPOSE absolutely everything he proposes to win the White House in 2020. 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

New York Times Becomes Really A Puppet of the Deep State?

This entire affair of desperately trying to paint Trump in league with Putin to defeat Hillary is beyond any comprehension.  Not a single left-wing press from the New York Times to CNN will ever report the truth that the release of Hillary’s emails NEVER involved altered or forged documents. They were all REAL! So this entire conspiracy they are so desperate to create against Trump is astonishing. I would agree if there was any proof that the release of the emails was a fraud or fake and they traced to Putin. To paint Trump in a conspiracy for releasing emails that exposed the truth behind Hillary should warrant us sending a thank you card to Putin if he was ever actually involved.

I cannot imagine how unethical and intentionally misleading the New York Times actions were by reporting their latest questionable piece with a bold headline: F.B.I. Opened Inquiry Into Whether Trump Was Secretly Working on Behalf of Russia.” They claimed that after Trump fired FBI Director James Comey, the feds began investigating whether the President was an intelligence threat. This simply says that some people in the FBI tried to use their power to investigate and were most likely politically motivated. They did not claim Trump was such an agent, only that they investigated to see if he was. This suspicion of an anti-Trump political member of the FBI in the Deep State and then told the New York Times emerged after Trump complained about Comey to Russian diplomats and then told NBC’s Lester Holt that he had the “Russia thing” in mind when he axed the director. Even the Russian Dossiers on Trump ended up being funded by Hillary to smear her opponent.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Norway to Track Cars GPS to Tax Per KM (Mile) – Your Govt is Next

COMMENT: Hi,
The Norwegian Data Protection Authority is now arguing that GPS based taxation, for the amount of kilometers driven by car, can be done within 5-6 years! Norwegians trust the government way too much, because they believe that this system will eliminate the need for road tax, fuel tax, toll roads and reduce the cost of car insurance.
No way will the tax be reduced! GPS based taxation is a governments dream! Who is to stop them from issuing parking fees or speeding tickets?
Norway also has a high number of electric cars, and an electric car is sold without any tax or VAT, has reduced road tax, free of reduced toll road passage and does not contribute to fuel taxation. With GPS active, the government can finally collect taxes from electric cars without the messy environmentalists meddling.
In the worst case, a corrupt government can use the system against its people to create implications, push the burden of proof over to a troublesome citizen, in court.
Norway may be a great country regards to statistics, but will be some kind of self-imposed totalitarianism if this nonsense continues. Stay away from Norway if you cherish your hard-earned cash!
And as always, thank you, Mr. Armstrong, for your service and enlightenment.
AA
Ex-social democrat
(see source #1)

REPLY: The political-economic system post-World War II has been a socialist driven agenda. “Vote for me and I will give you other people’s money.” This system cannot be sustained when those in power have promised themselves pensions. As government workers retire, they need to be replaced. The growth rate of government has started to explode. Instead of looking at the problem objectively, they are simply looking from paycheck to paycheck on how to meet the next payroll.

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Why Silver & Barter Could Become the Alternative to Cryptocurrency

QUESTION: RE: ….& Coming Barter System.
So, are you suggesting that we may see a shift to Silver by private individuals as the only way to sidestep Government stupidity, or will it be even worse, like trading whiskey for toilet paper??

TWE

ANSWER: Assuming government attempts to follow the IMF’s advice and create cryptocurrencies to replace paper money, then the only alternative will be the barter system. To make this clear, the likelihood of the USA following this route is a last resort. It will NOT be the first, but the last. We will see this in Europe before we will ever see it in the USA.

This cannot be a question that is answered based upon OPINION, for we all have one. The only rational way to approach that question is to look at history and see how people responded to similar but not identical positions. What comes to mind in Japan. Each new emperor devalued the money issued his own coins worth 10x that of the coins of the previous emperor. People resorted to bags of rice and they used the coins of China. Everyone refused to use Japanese coins. The result was that Japan LOST the right to issue coins at all for 600 years.

Moving to a cryptocurrency to stop the underground economy from using paper money will simply switch it to foreign currency (dollars in Europe) or something commodity based. In federal prisons, when they banned smoking back in 2004, packs of mackerel industry became the prison currency. Everyone operated an internal economy. They used cigarettes as their currency of choice to purchase anything from food and home-brewed prison hooch. They also used books of stamps. Prisoners could ship books of stamps out and they could resell them at a discount.

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