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The Coming Big Freeze

The Coming Big Freeze 

The BIG FREEZE is upon us. The volatility in weather that our computer has been forecasting on a long-term basis should result in this winter being colder than the last. In Britain, the snow has hit an already flood-ravaged country as temperatures plunged to -7C. This is part of the problem we face. The ground freezes down and this prevents winter crops. During the late 1700s, the ground froze to a depth of 2 feet according to John Adams. When John Adams set out to travel to Philadelphia, it was bitterly cold and there was a foot or more of snow that covered the landscape that had blanketed Massachusetts from one end of the province to the other. Beneath the snow, after weeks of severe cold, the ground was frozen solid to a depth of two feet. Packed ice in the road made the journey very hazardous. In a letter to his wife, John Adams wrote:

“Indeed I feel not a little out of Humour, from Indisposition of Body. You know, I cannot pass a Spring, or fall, without an ill Turn — and I have had one these four or five Weeks — a Cold, as usual. Warm Weather, and a little Exercise, with a little Medicine, I suppose will cure me as usual. … Posterity! You will never know, how much it cost the present Generation, to preserve your Freedom! I hope you will make a good Use of it. If you do not, I shall repent in Heaven, that I ever took half the Pains to preserve it.”

On September 8, 1816, Jefferson described the weather in a letter to Albert Gallatin:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Volatility in Weather is Spot On! Are Pole Shifts Part of the Process?

Volatility in Weather is Spot On! Are Pole Shifts Part of the Process? 

QUESTION: What proof do you have that there is higher volatility in weather? I think you just make this up. I have not seen anywhere else with claims of new high and low records. Humans are responsible for climate change. You are spreading propaganda yourself.

JG

ANSWER: Well here is the list published by the NOAA that shows there have been 17,082 new record daily highs and 17.068 new record lows. If this is what you believe, then stop heating your home in the winter or using air conditioning. Quit your job, stay home. Do not use any public transportation. Grow your own food because even buying a head of lettuce means a truck has to deliver it to the store. You better not read a newspaper, for you are continuing to cutting down trees that suck up CO2. Then again, turn off your computer because even reading this consumes electricity and you are destroying the planet every second, according to your theory.

Do all that and if you are still alive after one year, then let me know how you survived.

For the rest of us who are objective, the VOLATILITY our computer has been forecasting is precisely on target. We have just over 17,000 new record highs and over 17,000 new record lows. That is what we call VOLATILITY in market-terms.

What is difficult to forecast short-term is the polar shifts. The magnetic North Pole is wandering about 34 miles (55 kilometers) a year. The North Magnetic Pole has moved so much, so fast, that a group of scientists rushed to change a model that helps guide shipping, airplanes, and submarines to know where they are in the Arctic Ocean.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Understanding the Repo Crisis

Understanding the Repo Crisis

COMMENT: Marty, thank you for a great conference. The comments out there on the liquidity crisis have been just domestically focused. Thank you for keeping my eyes focused on international events and your analysis about the crisis at Deutsche Bank

GH

REPLY: The raid on Deutsche Bank in Germany back in September over the money laundering probe of Danske Bank, which is the biggest lender in Denmark, contributed to the sudden collapse in confidence. The governments are desperate for money and they are hunting it on a global scale. Deutsche Bank served as a correspondent bank to Danske’s Estonia branch. That is where the latest money laundering is alleged to have occurred. The banker there in the Estonia branch of Danske, Aivar Rehe, was found dead by police there in Estonia. He had been previously questioned by prosecutors and was considered to be THE key witness in the money laundering probe. As always, just like Jeffrey Epstein, his death was declared to be a suicide. This is standard whenever they need to cover something up. Boris Berezovsky suddenly commits suicide being very remorseful for making billions I suppose. Anyone who could expose things others do not want always seems to commit suicide.

The crisis in liquidity is that American bankers will NOT lend to Europe. Because of the European Banking Crisis, banks just do not trust banks. Nobody knows who will be standing after a failure at Deutsche Bank. The Fed has had to step in to be the neutral lender NOT because of a crisis in the USA, but because of the collapse in confidence in Europe’s banking system as a whole. Stay alert – this is just getting started.

Europe is Losing 1,000 Farms Per Day & Climate Change Regulations May lead to Starvation

Europe is Losing 1,000 Farms Per Day & Climate Change Regulations May lead to Starvation 

The new EU Agriculture Commissioner has publicly stated that Europe loses 1,000 farms per day. He acknowledged that the EU is losing 400,000 farms per year. However, crop and livestock production in Europe is projected to decline and maybe completely abandoned Europe’s southern and Mediterranean regions due to the increased negative impacts of climate change, according to a European Environment Agency (EEA).

The study says that adapting to climate change must be made a top priority for the European Union’s agriculture sector if it is to improve resilience to extreme events like droughts, heatwaves, and floods. But the obsession with Climate Change in Europe which is destroying its economy and now its ability to even grow food many are concerned will lead to starvation once again as was the case in Ireland because of the British Corn Laws which prohibited the importation of grain from America.

The nonsense of Climate Change seems to be poised to accomplish what it is designed to do – reduce the population. The question that needs to be answered is: Whose grandchildren are we trying to prevent from being born? Those who do not believe in Climate Change created by Humans? Certainly not the promoters or politicians. So it must be the rest of us they want to starve.

It certainly appears that perhaps this is the backdrop as to why we may see a rise in agricultural prices into 2025 and our computer is showing this should be a cost-push inflationary wave.

Central Banks Trapped by Their Theories

Central Banks Trapped by Their Theories 

QUESTION: Hi Martin,

I can understand how JP and EU backed themselves into a corner with negative rates. Happy to give them the benefit of the doubt when this all started 3-4 years ago even though it was obvious this was not going to end well.
However, what I don’t understand is the thought process that reserve banks today need to perpetuate eternal growth when I would think their role should be to smooth out extremes (debatable this is even possible).

RBA is a case in point as while the Australian economy is slowing, it is nowhere near terrible. There is talk that they will now also look to lower rates to near zero and start QE. I get that all reserve banks are looking to maintain lower exchange rates and so they need to keep pace with the rest of the world but one would think they would learn better from mistakes of EU and JP.

My question is, is this a global conspiracy or just plain stupidity?

Thanks for all ….

David

ANSWER: The original theory was to smooth out the business cycle. The political governments turned to the central banks and argued that they were responsible for the money supply. Therefore, it was allegedly their duty to control inflation irrespective of the spending of politicians. This was an inconvenient economic truth.

The problem is that the ONLY theory they have is the Keynesian Model. They really have no other theory to rely on. So they keep lowering rates, hoping to stimulate demand and are oblivious to the economic reality that the political side is hunting taxes and becoming more aggressive in tax enforcement. The two sides are clashing and the central banks are now TRAPPED with no alternative.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Thucydides Trap & War Between China & USA

Thucydides Trap & War Between China & USA 

QUESTION: What do you make of Trump’s proposal to restrict US investment in China? Will this send the US economy into recession as everyone is saying?

DH

ANSWER: I have never seen the press so anti-president in the history of this nation. Every possible thing they claim will destroy the US economy. The US trade with China will by no means send the US economy into a deep recession. However, blocking US investment into China would send the Chinese economy down even harder.

This style of analysis always reduces the future trend to one simple event. The markets and the world economy are far more complex than a single event. This is the entire problem with Western Analysis – it is always linear and never cyclical. This is the same problem as Global Warming. They see a 1-degree rise, project that out for 50 years, and then assume the trend will remain the same – linear analysis. They always project the future in this manner and NEVER look at the trends in history to learn what are the “real” possibilities from similar events.

What you must understand is they often call this type of struggle between the current superpower (Financial Capital of the World) and the rising power to take that title, the Thucydides Trap. This is named after the ancient Greek historian Thucydides who wrote about a war that devastated the two leading city-states of classical Greece – Sparta & Athens.

Thucydides explained: “It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable.”

While Thucydides provided his opinion, there was another backdrop to this war which he did not cover. Looking at this from an economic issue, it was the ancient clash between Capitalism and Communism. Sparta never issued coins whereas the Athenian Owl coins became the international currency recognized even in barbarian regions.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Liquidity Crisis & the Pending European Banking Crisis

Liquidity Crisis & the Pending European Banking Crisis 

A lot of people have been writing in about the liquidity crisis and the banks with exposure to Deutsche Bank. This is clearly the European Banking Crisis we have been warning about. Most European (and Swiss) banks are having to overpay 30-40bps over libor. Even A+ rated banks are having to pay this premium.

Keep in mind that the Lehman and Bear crisis took place in the REPO market. This is why the crisis is appearing in a market most never hear about or see in interest rates. Those in Europe who have a position in cash, it may be better to have shares or a private sector bond or US Treasury. Given the policy in Europe of no bailouts, leaving cash sitting in your account could expose you to risk in the months ahead.

In all honesty, if this explodes in Europe, no-one will be safe and it will be pot-luck who’s cash you will be holding when it hits the fan. The Fed will bailout the US banks, but it cannot get involved in bailing out the European banks. This is becoming a clash in public policy which all stems from the FAILUREto have consolidated the debts. That refusal to consolidate, the terms demanded by Germany, also precludes bailouts where the money would cross borders. They want to pretend this is one happy family, but they insist on separate accounts.

As one European banker put it in a private conversation, it is almost a calm collapse. As I have REPEATEDLY warned, we are facing scenarios that nobody has ever seen before. The interconnectivity runs so deep, this clash in public policies can result in a serious crisis emanating from Europe.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Japan’s Monetary System is a Warning to Modern Society

Japan’s Monetary System is a Warning to Modern Society 

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; My friend who retired from the Bank of Japan told me you had recreated the monetary system of Japan and that was how you could predict the yen would go below par back in 1995 and again in 2011. Could you please publish the chart on the yen showing the full monetary system from the Meiji reform?

Thank you

AH

ANSWER: Japan has been through a truly wild ride when it comes to currency. The emperors would devalue the outstanding money supply when they came to the throne and reduce it to 10% of its former value. This allowed the new emperor to issue coins as if he were beginning anew. By the time the third emperor pulled this stunt, the people simply refused to accept the coins of the emperor ever again.

The Japanese resorted to using bags of rice as money and Chinese coins. Eventually, they also used ingots of silver or gold for larger transactions by the 18th to 19th century.

This is actually a very good reference point because Japan lost the ability to issue money for 600 years until the Meiji reform in 1870 when the yen was born. The last official Japanese coin issue was in 958 AD.

The Meiji Reform of 1870 set the yen at par with the US dollar based upon a silver yen which was the equivalent of the US silver dollar.

This is an important point because as governments today try to eliminate their currency in the hunt for taxes, people are hoarding US dollars exactly as the Japanese began to hoard Chinese coins. Governments should look well at what they are proposing for they can lose the confidence of the people and they will lose the right to issue money.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Climate Change That Ignores History

Climate Change That Ignores History 

Climate has ALWAYS changed from decade to decade.  There were major swings (volatility) during the 1930s. You had the dust bowl during the summer and in 1936 you had record cold. The 1936 North American cold wave, which also hit Japan and China, still rank among the most intense cold waves in the recorded history of North America. You cannot blame this on soccer moms driving the kids around town burning fossil fuels. Cars were a luxury in the 1930s still.

There is just no evidence of human-induced climate change. There is nobody willing to call them out on this nonsense with just showing the dramatic swings in temperature over the centuries.

Here is a piece that appeared in the Weekend Australian on the covert issues behind the curtain.


It’s a well-kept secret, but 95 per cent of the climate models we are told prove the link between human CO2 emissions and catastrophic global warming have been found, after nearly two decades of temperature stasis, to be in error. It’s not surprising.

We have been subjected to extravagance from climate catastrophists for close to 50 years.

In January 1970, Life magazine, based on “solid scientific evidence”, claimed that by 1985 air pollution would reduce the sunlight reaching the Earth by half. In fact, across that period sunlight fell by between 3 per cent and 5 per cent. In a 1971 speech, Paul Ehrlich said: “If I were a gambler I would take even money that ­England will not exist in the year 2000.”

Fast forward to March 2000 and David Viner, senior research scientist at the Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, told The Independent, “Snowfalls are now a thing of the past.” In December 2010, the Mail Online reported, “Coldest December since records began as temperatures plummet to minus 10C bringing travel chaos across Britain”.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Club & Why the Majority Must be Always Wrong

The Club & Why the Majority Must be Always Wrong 

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I did my own research on the 1998 Russian collapse. All the big names lost billions. Even the New York Times reported that George Soros lost $2 billion. You were the only one who made money so it made sense that you were named hedge fund manager of the year in 1998. My question is this. Since all the big names were involved in the Russia trade which took down Long-Term Capital Management, is this why you call them the “club” for they all do seem to be involved in the same trade?

DU

ANSWER: Correct. This is also why they try to prevent people from listening to me. They are convinced that the reason they lost was that I was too influential and had too many institutions listening to me. That absurdity is what they ran to the government with, so I was then accused of “manipulating” the world economy. They all lost after I warned them and refused to join in their takeover of Russia I believe I was given the nod by the Clintons. They told me they had the IMF in their back pocket and they would continue to fund Russia. I warned them that the IMF got their funding from governments and they were not going to back it.

The Russian financial crisis hit Russia on the 17th of August 1998. Our World Economic Conference was held in London that June. Our forecast was then published by the London Financial Times on the front page of the second section.

They did not give up. After they got the Federal Reserve to bail them out, they then focused on setting up Yeltsin and got him to divert $7 billion in IMF loans. Even CNN reported the money was stolen from the IMF.

CNN Theft of IMF Money – Sep. 1, 1999

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Do We Face Global Cooling or an Ice Age?

Do We Face Global Cooling or an Ice Age? 

QUESTION #1: You expect global cooling due to the decrease in solar energy. Why do glaciers melt?

MG

QUESTION #2: Now that the Greenland Glacier is growing, is this part of the shift back toward global cooling? Do you think we are headed to an ice age?

FH

ANSWER: There appears to be a 20-year cycle in the Arctic to begin with. The mere fact that at times the Northwest Passage has been ice-free and ice blocked proves there is a cycle to absolutely everything. The Arctic has not always been frozen. There are documented accounts from 1817 when the ice melted. The point is nature functions in a cyclical manner — hello, remember four seasons?

I do NOT believe we are heading into an “Ice Age” of such a dramatic duration. All the data clearly shows that we are in a declining trend with each warming peak being less than the former. Anyone who thinks humans have caused this last warming period just listens to propaganda and ignores all the historical evidence. There is ABSOLUTELY no period in history absent of a cycle — NONE!!!!

From an objective and unbiased view, yes, we will see a cooling period. However, this will most likely be just a retest of the last low of the Little Ice Age. I would not speculate on an Ice Age coming, just a swing downward in temperature enough to cause us a lot of inconveniences.

The Greenland Glacier is growing again at the edges because the water is colder. That seems to be in line with the downturn in the energy output of the sun since 2015. The global cooling puts food production at risk. Sure, there are those who just refuse to believe this since global warming has become a religion. The herd may be thinned for their propaganda will ensure they are unprepared for food shortages.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Surrender of Liberty in the Name of Security

The Surrender of Liberty in the Name of Security 

QUESTION: It seems that as we get closer to a change-over of economic systems that as a society we are more willing to give up our rights to the State. Is that part of a pattern during these types of events? Was it seen as Britain, Rome, and other countries lost power after their peaks?
DS

ANSWER: Unfortunately, the trend first materializes when people need the government to protect them usually from an external force. The British used this tactic against both the French and the American colonists. That prompted Ben Franklin to comment on this trend.

After the 3rd Century Monetary Crisis bottomed in the Roman Empire in 268 AD, there was a surge to build a wall around Rome by Emperor Aurelian following the same pattern. Aurelian saw the corruption that led to the debasement of the currency because those minting the coins were robbing the treasury. Aurelian moved to DRAIN THE SWAMP in Rome. When Aurelian returned to Rome in 271 AD after fighting off barbarians, he had to pacify a terrified city. He immediately halted the rioting and restored order to the capital. The controller of the mint in Rome began a rebellion over the monetary reforms laid out by Aurelian. He ordered that all the debased currency be purchased back and replaced with a new currency of higher content in silver. The rebellion was led by Felicissimus.

It appears that those who had been running the mint were embezzling the intended silver and issuing the debased coinage at least in part on their own authority. Obviously, any reform to the monetary system that called for an increase in silver content would have been unprofitable for those running the mint for personal gain.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Biggest Bubble in Modern Financial History

The Biggest Bubble in Modern Financial History 

QUESTION: You said before you were advising corporates to issue long-term bonds and lock in the low rates. Even the US Treasury seems to be following your advice and are looking at issuing 50 and 100-year bonds. Do you give governments the same advice?

DK

ANSWER: If asked, of course, I advise to issue long-term debt NOW at these absurd low rates. I also advise individuals to lock in fixed-rate mortgages.

Germany just tried to issue negative interest 30-year bonds with a total offering of 2bn€ of which they only sold 824million were purchased. This is showing that this whole theory of negative interest rates as seen its day. The US is now even considering issuing 50-year and 100-years bonds as interest rates plummet.

I have reviewed the buyers of these negative bonds which now amount to $15 trillion outstanding globally. What is actually taking place in the market is really dominated by punters rather than investors. In other words, the people have been buying them to flip assuming rates would just go lower.

The crisis on the horizon is MASSIVE!!!! These punters are going to get caught as they did with the Russian bonds when they collapsed in 1998 which led to the Long-Term Capital Market crisis. This is a game of musical chairs. Nobody thinks twice as long as rates decline. But the appetite for negative yields does NOT exist insofar as people actually investing in them.

Yields have dipped negative on short-term 30 days paper during panics. The 30-day TBills went negative several times from December 2008 onward. The reason was clear. Capital feared the banks so they were willing to park money at a slightly negative rate.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Will Governments ever Listen Before there is Blood in the Streets?

Will Governments ever Listen Before there is Blood in the Streets? 

COMMENT: Thank you for ‘Why Private Blogs’. You should get goose bumps once in a while about your work~,
the project is massive in scale, certainly worthy of my respect and everyone else in readerville and your employ as well. This piece is well written and also lays out a good mission statement reminder to all. So, feel free Martin to frame it, re post it once a year, and continue to knick knack patty whack away at the world and toss us bones …. it is a worthy and respected endeavor that is already making the world a better place, especially for those to come rolling home here in the future!!! Stay fired up my friend I have not yet met……. for BETTER DAYS ARE COMING.

REPLY: I do believe people tend to think this is just about forecasting the ups and downs in markets.  I have probably met with more central banks and governments than anyone over the years. I was called in by China during the 1997 Asian Currency Crisis and the Commission forming the Euro. I was called in at the formation of the G5 and by the Brady Commission for the 1987 Crash. All of these things and many more ONLY took place NOT because my opinion is worth something someone else does not have.

All of this has been because we forecast absolutely every country in the world and people even at the upper levels understand what we are doing and this is about demonstrating that absolutely EVERYTHING is connected on a global scale.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Difference Between Hyperinflation and Currency Inflation

Difference Between Hyperinflation and Currency Inflation 

QUESTION: What is the difference between asset inflation and hyperinflation? I believe you are saying that from Jan 2020 we will see inflation which I understand to be asset inflation?
Thanks
FL

ANSWER: Asset inflation is typically a reflection of a decline in the value of the currency, but this can be 50% over the course of one to two years. Hyperinflation typically occurs when confidence in the government itself completely collapses. This is usually in a peripheral economy or often in times of war or major domestic revolution, as was the case with the Continental Currency in the United States and the Assignats of the Revolutionary government in France. Asset inflation can be also caused by an investment boom concentrated within a single sector such as the Dot.com Bubble. The typical definition of hyperinflation is when prices rise by more than 50% per month over a period of time.

Then there is DEMAND inflation, which is typically one of two aspects. It can come in the form of a hot item like Pet Rocks, Cabbage Patch Dolls, etc. The second aspect is a shortage of something such as wheat or corn and the demand forces the price to rise.

Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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