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There Are No Coincidences – Why History Repeats

There Are No Coincidences – Why History Repeats 

QUESTION: Martin Today is Palm Sunday. In mass, they said HE colluded with the Galilean’s. HE was found innocent by the Council. They said HE was a tax evader. HE was found innocent by new leadership. HE correctly predicted that HE would be denied by his own party 3 times. The corrupt crowd lobbied to release a murderer, and sentence an innocent man to his fate. My question is do cycles go beyond what is physical as with planets and the stars that wobble and rotate around our galaxy? Does it include emotional and human behavior cycles? Does history rhyme? If so, are we living in a matrix that has been programmed with numerous cycles? We can show that animal life is irreducibly complex and therefore predesigned. But, I am now wondering about if the psychic has been programmed with cycles too?

Do we truly have free will?

EM

ANSWER: Your question is interesting. I have usually explained that history repeats because human nature never changes. Only technology does. Given the same circumstances, humans will ALWAYSrespond in the same manner. Just examine the same facts and you will see how there is NEVER any rule of law. It does not matter what century, for it is always the same. It is all a joke. Whatever the desire of those in power, they will always manipulate the law to produce the desired outcome.

Right now, just look at the government throwing Chelsea Manning in prison on contempt indefinitely, the $4.2 billion handed to Ecuador for Assange by the IMF, and then his immediate indictment and move for extradition. This is all a coordinated attack to launch against Trump for the 2020 election after the Mueller Report failed. There are NO COINCIDENCES when it comes to political maneuvers. You are watching history in the making. The Deep State is determined to get rid of Trump. They desperately want one of their own in power — a team player.

Turkey & the Real Risk of a Debt Crisis

Turkey & the Real Risk of a Debt Crisis 

The Treasury and Finance Ministry of Turkey announced that the country’s net external debt stock totaled $286.2 billion going into the end of the 3rd quarter of 2018. The country’s net external debt stock to its gross domestic product (GDP) ratio was 34.4% at the end of the third quarter of 2018. However, Turkey’s gross external debt stock amounted to $448.4 billion at the end of the 3rd quarter, bringing the debt/GDP ratio to 53.8% according to the official figures.

Interestingly, because of the fear of the Turkish lira, Turkish corporations have been often compelled to borrow in dollars. Therefore, the private sector’s share in the country’s gross external debt stock was 68.2% ($305.9 billion), while some $215.9 billion of this amount consisted of long-term debts with a maturity of more than one year. The Turkish public sector’s share of this debt was 30.6% in the country’s total foreign debt, which is about $21.4 billion in short-term (under one year) with $115.7 billion in the long-term (over one year). The banking sector’s (lenders and the central bank) external debt stock was $176.99 billion at the end of the 3rd quarter.

When we break this down further, 58.5% of the total gross external debt is denominated in U.S. dollars with only 32.3% denominated in euros. The amount denominated in Turkish lira among the external debt stock was a trifling 5.9%. This illustrates the crisis that will emerge with a change in the currency values.

IMF Hands $4.2 billion in loans for Ecuador for Julian Assange

IMF Hands $4.2 billion in loans for Ecuador for Julian Assange 

The evidence of political pressure on Ecuador is surfacing. The IMF Executive Board Approved US$4.2 Billion  (435% of quota and SDR 3.035 billion) Extended Fund Facility for Ecuador. The Executive Board agreed to this arrangement with strings attached. The Board’s decision enables the immediate disbursement of US$652 million (equivalent to SDR 469,7 million, or 67.3 percent of Ecuador’s quota). This arrangement provides support for the Ecuadorean government’s economic policies over the next three years provided they gave up Julian Assange.

It is very interesting how corruption and bribes grease the world. Every person who ever becomes a whistleblower on government goes to prison.

The USA immediately unveiled its request for extradition on computer hacking charges that carry 5 years. Of course, the US must put on its case to get its hands around Julian’s neck. Once he is extradited to the USA, they will unleash a battery of other charges to ensure he does life.

The rumblings behind the curtain are that the Democrats in league with the Deep State are behind this, hoping to force Assange to say he got Hillary’s emails from Putin as part of a plea deal. The danger of all of this nonsense is simply the plain fact it will bring us one more step closer to world war. What is clearly involved here seems to be a highly coordinated scheme that links the IMF and throwing Chelsea Manning in prison who will conveniently have to testify against Assange who can be eventually charged as was Manning and face the death penalty. By linking this to Russia, they hope to also prevent Trump from granting him any pardons.

This is getting very deep. Tyranny under the Banner of Liberty & Human Rights.

Fear of Inflation & Sterilization

Fear of Inflation & Sterilization 

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; you were friends with Milton Friedman. Do you agree with his view that the Great Depression was caused in part by the Fed refusing to expand the money supply? Isn’t Quantitative Easing expanding the money supply yet it too has failed to create inflation. Would you comment on this paradox?

Thank you for your thoughtful insight.

P

ANSWER: Yes, this certainly appears to be a paradox. This results from the outdated theory of economics which completely fails to grasp the full scope of the economy and how it functions. This same mistake is leading many down the path of MMT (Modern Monetary Theory) which assumes we can just print without end and Quantitative Easing proves there will be no inflation. They are ignoring the clash between fiscal policy carried out by the government and monetary policy in the hand of the central banks. This is a major confrontation where central banks have expanded the money supply to “stimulate” inflation. Governments are obsessed with enforcing laws against tax evasion and it is destroying the world economy and creating massive deflation.

In 1920, Britain legislated a return to the gold standard at the prewar parity to take effect at the end of a five-year period. That took place in 1925. Britain based its decision in part on the assumption that gold flows to the United States would raise price levels in Britain and limit the domestic deflation needed to reestablish the pre-war parity. In fact, the United States sterilized gold inflows to prevent a rise in domestic prices. In the 1920s, the Federal Reserve held almost twice the amount of gold required to back its note issue. Britain then had to deflate to return to gold at the pre-war parity. Milton saw that the Fed failed to monetize the gold inflows, fearing it would lead to inflation.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Why Has Everything Turned Sour? Is it the Press? Or is the Press Part of the Cycle?

Why Has Everything Turned Sour? Is it the Press? Or is the Press Part of the Cycle? 

QUESTION: Hello Mr. Armstrong,
I´d like your opinion on this,
During 7 Decades in which our lives got better, longer, richer, safer, healthier, better educated, more peaceful and more stimulating. Even World poverty has decreased in a rate never seen before, still, news coverage got increasingly negative

What explanation could there be for this? Is it excessive competition for attention as media sources multiply or an excessive any deeper reasons? I compare it to Markets, seems to be similar like trading on news, which is impossible because when the news is the worst, usually its the low and when everything and everyone is optimistic its the high.
regards

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ANSWER: Coming out of World War II, society really advanced in many ways from technology to medicine. This is the part of the societal cycle that is best to live in. Then what happens is corruption. The news becomes corrupt in sync with politics. I believe this becomes the case because news becomes institutionalized as it is owned by big firms who then direct the news to slant to their personal benefit. This is a funny skit on British News. It is so true here in the States as well. The Democrats love CNN and the Republicans love Fox. The news gravitates to a political slant and is no longer about news – it is always about selling more ads and pushing their propaganda like some religion handing out flowers in airports.

Yellow journalism was created by the battle between Pulitzer and Hearst. They created the Spanish American War to sell papers. Pulitzer’s name was worthless. To rehabilitate it he donated money to create the Pulitzer Prize for good journalism, which he never practiced.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Debt & the Point of No Return

Debt & the Point of No Return 

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; First I want to thank you for coming to Europe this year. It has been some time since your Berlin Conference. My question is simple. How can the ECB tell countries to reduce their debt when as you say nobody ever pays off the debt? Is this just fantasy or do they really believe what they are saying?

Looking forward to Rome.

WVM

ANSWER: The sheer demographics warn that more people will move into retirement, increasing expenditures at a faster pace than there are younger generations to compensate. This means that expenditures will rise and revenues will decline. Even if we were talking about governments that actually did pay off debt, they would still not be able to do so once we pass 2020.

Insofar as do they really believe their own nonsense? I am afraid they do. They have not yet reached the point where they will come to terms with the fact that this is a fictional world in which they dream of endless powers and they will prevail in the end. We have gone past the point of no return. We now require structural change and FAST!!!!!!!

The Perfect Financial Storm

The Perfect Financial Storm 

COMMENT: Martin,

Have read the two blogs on the Emerging Markets. Hit like a cold bucket of ice water. Knew something was coming from all your writings and the EMC, but Wow. Right in front of us.

Here is an observation, a thought:
Emerging Markets could turn out to be the Sub-Prime of this new era.
On the periphery. A Liquidity crises. Unplanned for, because Unexpected.

J

REPLY: This is going to be an extremely interesting WEC. Whatever could go wrong is going wrong in the world. It is becoming the perfect financial storm as we head into the bottom of the Economic Confidence Model. We have politicians only looking at saving their own power who are blind to the implications of their actions on a global scale. There are even rumors now that Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will claim some manipulation of the election by another country in a vast conspiracy. If he loses, he will likely refuse to leave office.

Trump – Israel – Putin – Middle East

Trump – Israel – Putin – Middle East 

The interesting aspect of our war models has been that this cycle turned up in 2014 and we really do not reach the point of a major peak before 2022/2023. Back in 2015, we published a segment on the rising tensions that would emerge in the Middle East – the War Cycle. We warned about the division along the lines of religion in the Middle East which has pitted Saudi Arabia against Iran would become the major issue. As far as Israel was concerned, this would tend to turn up from January 10th, 2019, which is the conclusion of a 51.6-year wave from the 1967 6-Day war. Now the pieces are beginning to line up.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s statement that “it is time for the United States to fully recognize Israel’s sovereignty over the Golan Heights” received an enthusiastic welcome in Israel. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, was boosted in his position in the upcoming April 9th elections. He said he welcomed this “Purim miracle.” His rival Benny Gantz, whose party’s leading lights helped push for American recognition of the Golan’s annexation, said in a statement that Trump was cementing his place in history as a true friend of Israel.

That Netanyahu and Gantz were both delighted no doubt. The annexation of the Golan and the settlements established there enjoy widespread support in Israel. Ever since the Yom Kippur War of 1973, Syria has refrained from any attempt to recover the Golan by force. After 51.6 years, even the Druze residents of the northern Golan had accepted Israeli rule without rebelling. Naturally, Syria slammed Trump’s statement that it was time to recognize Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights as “irresponsible” remarking that it confirms “the blind bias of the United States to the Zionist entity.”

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Climate Change: Real – Fake – Exaggerated?

Climate Change: Real – Fake – Exaggerated? 

QUESTION: I find it interesting that you are against human-induced global warming yet you confirm that climate change is natural. You seem to be in the middle of these arguments. You warned that solar activity was declining and there was a risk of going into a mini ice-age, but you did not seem to place high odds on that one. So can you elaborate on this since you seem to be the voice of reason?

GR

ANSWER: Sunspot activity has declined on schedule. February was an incredible month void of sunspots. This is clearly contributing to the extremely cold weather we are having. Cyclically, between 1645 and 1715, there was a prolonged collapse in sunspot activity known as the Maunder Minimum. Indeed, that was a period where sunspots all but disappeared. This coincided with the “Little Ice Age,” which was a period from 1500 to 1850 in the northern hemisphere. It was so cold, Viking settlers even abandoned Greenland.

I have stated many times that a major error in analysis is the attempt to reduce a problem to a single cause and effect. This topic of climate change is no different. Many scientists have strongly suggested that the Maunder Minimum caused the Little Ice Age. As I have shown, correlating everything that took place revealed that during solar minimum there is also an increase in volcanic activity and earthquakes.

You will read that scientists seem to be debating between the two rather than comprehending that EVERYTHING is absolutely connected. We cannot reduce everything to a single cause and effect. Therefore, in order for me to confirm that we are heading into a new ice age requires more volcanic activity in addition to a prolonged solar minimum.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

2019 is Breaking All Records for Cold – The Real Threat is a Global Freeze

2019 is Breaking All Records for Cold – The Real Threat is a Global Freeze 

QUESTION: Global cooling….you talk a lot about global cooling in the colder winter this year. But what effect does it have on the future summer temperatures and growing of crops?

GL

ANSWER: This type of climate change has the potential to be very profound. 2019 is already setting new records for cold and snowfall. In the center of the USA, the snowfall has risen to more than double that of 2000. There are many influences it has produced historically and the summer crop seasons grow shorter and dryer. Historically, this results in starvation in some areas but primarily malnutrition. That sets the stage for the rise of disease and plagues.

The Black Death was preceded by the Wolf Global Cooling where temperatures dropped by nearly 20% from the Medieval Warming period. As temperatures decline, the crop cycle shortens. In fact, so many people died during the 1300s that this brought an end to feudalism because there was a shortage of labor.

The Little Ice Age followed the Wolf Global Cooling. We can see that the price of wheat began to break out in 1545. Keep in mind that our model was created by pulling in everything we could get our hands on and correlating the entire world. When our model is showing Global Cooling and a pending bull market in the price of food, it is something rather important enough to put on the agenda. During the 1700s, even Thomas Jefferson and John Adams commented on how the ground froze to a depth of 2 feet. Nothing will grow under such conditions.

At Last – Solar Minimum Discussions Begin

At Last – Solar Minimum Discussions Begin 

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong; You are the only one with your computer that has correctly forecast the weather years in advance. I understand these are not some premonition of you on a personal level. That means putting the major trends together as you do actually produce results.

My hat’s off to you.

Cheers from bitterly cold UK

NG

REPLY: It is amazing to me that we are still in the Stone Age when it comes to forecasting even weather. You are correct. This is NOT based upon a personal intuition or opinion. I am merely reporting what the computer is forecasting and why. Sorry, nobody speaks to me in my dreams or anything. I cannot even pretend that my opinion is better than someone else’s. There is no room for personal opinions in such matters.

Nevertheless, at last, there are people finally starting to talk about solar minimum and the DEEP FREEZE. There has been extremely cold weather, a WARNING that is finally being heard. Solar minimum has ARRIVED and could last for more than a DECADE, as many are starting to warn. The problem with this reality is that weather is impacted by Mother Nature. Then people like Alexandria OcasioCortez demand higher taxes to create her Green New Deal outlawing air travel. Even the National Geographic is starting to remember the Deep Freeze of 1709. Even the BBC was forecasting a Deep Freeze. Others were calling it the “‘Beast from the East’ to plunge Europe into a historic deep freeze.”

The European Crisis of Philosophy is the Destruction of the European Union

The European Crisis of Philosophy is the Destruction of the European Union 

The entire project of creating the Euro was a means to allow Northern Europe to effectively takeover Southern Europe and impose its philosophy in a totally one-sided arrangement. I have stated plenty of times that all the debts of member states should have been consolidated into the central Euro debt and thereafter each state would be on its own as is the case in the United States. But from the outset, this was like pretending to be one family, but you do not really want to associate with your drunken brother-in-law who is always asking for money. Oh yes, you have to pretend to be nice at funerals and weddings. But that is where family ends. The European Union is no different.

The crisis brewing here is monumental and it will tear the European Union apart at the seams. There is this crisis that because the Euro was NEVERdesigned properly to begin with, Brussels is trying to enforce its demands upon every member state to maintain austerity regardless of the consequences domestically in each member state.  When Southern European states joined the Euro, they had to convert all past debts from their local currency to the Euro. What happened was not only their national debts DOUBLED in real terms, but ALL PRIVATE debts also DOUBLED. Suddenly, banks that had lent Italian lira were now demanding to be paid in Euro which doubled in real value. Nonperforming loans skyrocketed and every politicians blamed the bankers for their own misguided creation of the Euro.

Noe the crisis in philosophy is rising to the surface. The new Italian government wants to provide €1.5 billion to compensate savers for bank failures. Brussels is insisting that violates their bail-in rules and cannot be done.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

New Monetary Theory is Like Sleepwalking

New Monetary Theory is Like Sleepwalking 

QUESTION: Bernie Sanders was basing his whole economic proposal to just keep spending and make everything free. They seem to be teaching this in school now. This macroeconomic theory whereby a country’s spending is only constrained not by revenue in taxes but by inflation when it creates a sovereign currency. It seems too good to be true, but some economists were teaching this to my son. Would you care to comment on this theory?

JH

ANSWER: The problem with what many call “new” or “modern” monetary theory is that it is like sleepwalking. You walk, creating GDP, while you are also dreaming. It reminds me of Shakespeare:

“To die, to sleep–To sleep–perchance to dream: ay, there’s the rub, for in that sleep of death what dreams may come when we have shuffled off this mortal coil, must give us pause.”

This economic theory is the same old incantation — how to prosper with other people’s money. Rome had no national debt and no central bank. It created money to fund itself. In hard times, they used the law to confiscate the property of people as they are doing today with their civil asset forfeitures.

What is missing in this theory is the question of debt. They assume they can borrow without end and never have to account for what they have done. They fail to understand that concept and try to regulate pension funds, which requires them to obtain government debt that they never pay off.

Yes, you can just create money to fund the government and it is confined by inflation. That is a true statement if taken by itself. However, you cannot then borrow with no intention of paying down the debt because the accumulative interest payments will end up representing 100% of the debt. This theory fails for it ignores dealing with the debt.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Business Cycle & Why They Pretend it Cannot be Forecast

The Business Cycle & Why They Pretend it Cannot be Forecast 

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I have studied you Economic Confidence Model and found it to be extremely accurate in forecasting the business cycle. When I showed it to my professor here at ——— he responded that itis impossible to forecast the business cycle. He would not even engage in a conversation about it. Why are they so intimidated by your work?

Thank you

GMVideo Player00:0001:17

ANSWER: What you have to understand is that IF it is possible to forecast the business cycle, then that means politics have to change. The entire system is based upon the proposition of vote for me and I will reduce unemployment and bring world peace unless I do not like the people. If you listen to Larry Summers, he states that if you could forecast the business cycle, that would be bad because it would become a self-fulfilling prophecy. He also states that the economy is far too complex, like weather, with way too many moving components that make it impossible to forecast. That means the door is open to manipulate the economy, as he suggested with negative interest rates. When that failed, he then discovered there was the zero interest boundary where people would withdraw their cash from banks and defeat his negative interest tool. He has thus advocated eliminating physical paper money to allow his negative interest rate idea to then work — so he maintains. He ignores, of course, the entire pension fund system.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Revolution – Why it is Always Inevitable?

Revolution – Why it is Always Inevitable? 

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, I just went to see Les Miserables with my wife. I was really moved for it was indeed how history repeats. It just seems we always end up in the same position because government never changes.

PB

ANSWER: Unfortunately, socialistic governments pretend that they are taking your money for your own benefit. The excuses are endless. Nevertheless, they constantly oppress the people by taking an ever increasing portion of their net disposable income, crushing them into the dust. The motives seem to change, but the end is always the same. This is why the Founding Fathers forbid direct taxation. That was such a critical deterrent to prevent revolution. The governments followed Marx at the beginning of the 20th century, and then convinced themselves that they were doing it to care for the people. In the process, they paid themselves pensions that no one else could possibly attain. Forbidding direct taxation was the only possible way to prevent the recurrence of revolution.

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