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The Bulletin: June 5-11, 2025

The Bulletin: June 5-11, 2025

This past week’s articles of interest…

CLICK HERE

 

If you’re new to my writing, check out this overview.


In the Sightlines of Empire: The Gift and Curse of Thermal Optics

The Superfood That Replaces Every Toxic Oil in Your Kitchen

Why Analysts Misjudge Oil’s Future | Art Berman

CO2 is Good For You – by Ugo Bardi – Living Earth

‘Half the tree of life’: ecologists’ horror as nature reserves are emptied of insects

India-Pakistan conflict over water reflects a region increasingly vulnerable to climate change

The Untold Story Of How Water and Plants Already Cool Our Climate

U.S. and Global Money Supply Surges to Record Highs

Trust, Dirt, and Firelight: Shared Answers for a Collapsing World

The Myth of Human Progress and the Collapse of Complex Societies. Chris Hedges & Joseph Tainter. | Kevin Hester

A GPS Blackout Would Shut Down the World | WIRED

Dark Irony: 75th Anniversary Edition Of Orwell’s 1984 Comes With Trigger Warnings – modernity

The Ratchet Effect: Easy To Spend More, Spending Less Triggers Collapse

Short Bursts Of Movement Ignite Calorie Burn

WHERE TO DIG: Forging a Collapse-Aware Grower Community in the City, Suburb, or Country.

India Central Bank Shocks With Biggest Rate Cut Since Covid As Growth, Inflation Stall | ZeroHedge

Rich Countries’ Energy Transitions Threaten Indigenous Peoples and the Environment – Inside Climate News

Empire Of Extraction: AI, Capitalism, And The Unraveling Of The Biosphere | Collapse of Industrial Civilization

Our Atmosphere’s Growing Thirst Is a Hidden Cause of Worsening Droughts : ScienceAlert

The Cultural Consequences of Inflation | Mises Institute

Five Things to Know if Martial Law is Declared and How to Prepare

Small Modular Hallucinations – The Honest Sorcerer

The Real Energy Crisis No One’s Talking About

The Carbon Capture Mirage: Why We’re Betting on a Fantasy

The End of the Fiat Currency Experiment, in Seven Charts

Collapse Revisited: How do we Stand in Terms of Existential Risks?

War Is Peace, Gas Is Now “Clean Energy”

Get To Work – by Rachel Donald – Planet: Critical

UK: Mainstream Beliefs Meet the Terror Watchlist

Democracy Is the Ideal Distraction – Doug Casey’s International Man

Capitalism Doesn’t Want You To Survive What’s Coming – George Tsakraklides

Energy and debt – by Gunnar Rundgren

New study shows huge groundwater losses along Colorado River | Grist

What Should / Can / Could / Will We Do?

How Did We Get Here?

Take the Fast Eddy Challenge

The New World Order’s Endgame – OffGuardian

Secret Document: Is Germany’s Bundeswehr Preparing to Wage War on Russia? – Global Research

Test Case for Martial Law? What Trump Might Really Be Doing In Los Angeles.

AMOC decline linked to increased dry season rainfall in parts of the Amazon rainforest

Scientific Publishing: Enough is Enough – by Seemay Chou

Could AI Decide to Kill All Humans to Save the Planet?

WE ARE BEING AMUSED AND ABUSED TO DEATH – The Burning Platform

How Power Turns Chaos Into Currency

European Union Unveils International Strategy Pushing Digital ID Systems and Online Censorship


If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).

Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running). 

If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing. 

Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99

Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps… 

https://paypal.me/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US 

If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.

You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.

 

The Bulletin: April 17-23, 2025

The Bulletin: April 17-23, 2025

This past week’s articles of interest…

If you’re new to my writing, check out this overview.


How Climate Change Fuels Increasing Wildfire Disasters

Extended Heatwave in India, Pakistan To Test Survivability

History Will Not Repeat Itself – George Tsakraklides

Zero-Based Extinction: Nature’s Life Support Gets a Sunset Clause

The Structure of Geopolitical Revolutions | Art Berman

Technology Addiction and Lessons

The unregulated link in a toxic supply chain | Grist

The End Of Thinking

What will happen when the world runs out of oil? | 60 Minutes Australia

EIA Says U.S. Oil Production Will Peak in 2027 | OilPrice.com

Unintended Consequences in a Complex World – by Nate Hagens

How Things Break: Hyper-Optimization

Being Certain About Uncertainty – The Honest Sorcerer

2030 Doomsday Scenario: The Great Nuclear Collapse

Poverty and Progress – by Gunnar Rundgren

Our Sad Species | how to save the world

“China Will Never Accept It”: Beijing Warns Countries Against Trade Deal With Trump At China’s Expense | ZeroHedge

What’s “Normal” in a Hyper-Normalized World?

Science Snippets: The Disasters Of Cooking and Heating With Plastic

Pope Francis Failed: Now we Need a New Religion?

From Gridlock to Road Rage: What Collapse Feels Like

The first commercial carbon sequestration plant in the U.S. leaks – Peak Everything, Overshoot, & Collapse

Living In the Shadows


If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).

Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running). 

If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing. 

Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99

Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps… 

https://paypal.me/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US 

If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.

You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.

 

The Bulletin: January 23-29, 2025

The Bulletin: January 23-29, 2025

Collapse or Extinction: The Unholy Double Bind of the 21st Century

US Will Likely Stop Buying Oil From Venezuela: Trump | The Epoch Times

The End of the Regenerative Illusion?

Germany’s Outgoing Economy Minister Warns Europe Not to Over-Rely on US Energy | The Epoch Times

Modern Civilization is Proving to be a Very Fragile Thing

Canada Can’t Afford To Play Trade Chicken With the US

Do Money Supply, Deficit And QE Create Inflation? – RIA

Deforestation and world population sustainability: a quantitative analysis | Scientific Reports

Storm Éowyn: man killed and 725,000 properties without power in Ireland

Misled Climate CO2 Fanatics – Green Energy Is a Road to Nowhere – Global Research

Medical Journal Article Criticises Corrupt Medical Journals

Visualizing Europe’s Dependence On Chinese Resources | ZeroHedge

Gazprom In Turmoil, Forced To Hike Prices On Russians In Middle Of Winter | ZeroHedge

Should You Just Give Up?

Warming, cooling, or we don’t know?

Homo Sapiens Are Working Overtime to Join ‘The Great Silence’ | Collapse of Industrial Civilization

Where We’ve Been, Where We’re Going

Is Russia Running Out of Gas?

When Renewables Meet Their Limits to Growth

Letter From a Young Canadian: Authoritarianism, Media Propaganda and Repression

World Economic Forum Panel Praises EU Censorship Law

Green Deception: Environmental Activists Serve China’s Energy Agenda | RealClearDefense

Climate change is disrupting food systems across Latin America, UN report says | CNN

‘Last Ice Area’ in the Arctic could disappear much sooner than previously thought

Nursery Rhymes | Do the Math

“Landman” vs. the Environmentalists | Mises Institute

2025: On the Brink of the Biggest Oil Shock in History – International Man

The Uncertain Future of Oil: Energy Poverty, Depletion, and ‘Green’ Ambitions

Eating oil – by Gunnar Rundgren

The Bulletin: January 2-8, 2025

The Bulletin: January 2-8, 2025

End Of An Era: Ukraine Halts Transit Of Russian Gas To Europe | ZeroHedge

By Charles & Chris: Doomers Anonymous

We need dramatic social and technological changes’: is societal collapse inevitable? | Climate crisis | The Guardian

The System’s Self-Destruct Sequence Cannot Be Turned Off

Seeing overshoot – by Elisabeth Robson

Fear of the New Year – by Geoffrey Deihl

Three-quarters of the world’s land is drying out, ‘redefining life on Earth’ | Grist

Six Dynamics That Will Shape Our Future

1.3 – Our Energy Slave Boom and Bust

That Sense of Impending Doom: Could Anything Shock The World?

Russia promises retaliation after saying Ukraine fired US-supplied missiles

What If We Burned Everything

After Overshoot Can Life Prevail?

Norway Doubles Down on Oil and Gas | OilPrice.com

Climate crisis ‘wreaking havoc’ on Earth’s water cycle, report finds | Extreme weather | The Guardian

How much oil remains for the world to produce? Comparing assessment methods, and separating fact from fiction – ScienceDirect

Degrowth is the Answer – by Matt Orsagh

Status of US Dollar as Global Reserve Currency: USD Share Hits 30-Year Low as Central Banks Pile on Other Currencies & Gold | Wolf Street

Debate On “Peak Cheap Oil”: Fact Or Overblown Fear? | Doomberg vs Adam Rozencwajg

Energy Prices, Shale, Global Populism, & the Huge Problem We Must Address – Art Berman | #37

We Are Living In The Good Old Days

A Reality Check on Our ‘Energy Transition’ | The Tyee

Billionaires dangle free speech like a bauble. We gawp like open-mouthed babes

Repression of climate and environmental protest is intensifying across the world

The Bulletin: December 12-18, 2024

The Bulletin: December 12-18, 2024

The Baby Bust: How The Toxicity Crisis Could Cause the Next Economic Crash

Global Warming and the Great Unravelling

All Stories Are Propaganda | how to save the world

The Big Shining Lie: We’re Better Off Now–No, We’re Poorer, Much Poorer

Are We Running Out Of Copper? This Image Says Yes

America Is A Long Con

Saltwater will taint 77% of coastal aquifers by century’s end, modeling study finds

Fukushima: Disaster Response is to Spread Radioactive Waste to the Commons – CounterPunch.org

Drought alert issued in Pakistan

Water Scarcity

Environmental-Political Collapse Accelerates – resilience

Book review: Five Insights for Avoiding Global Collapse

Why I Am a Realist – by John J. Mearsheimer – Savage Minds

THE EVIL CYCLES OF WAR AND ECONOMIC DESTRUCTION – VON GREYERZ

“Thank You for Ruining My Life” – The Great Simplification

What it Takes to Master a Collapsing World

Collapse: A Timeline

​​Corporations Are Not Your Friends | how to save the world

Rhyming History: France’s First Hyperinflation

Before Societal Implosion Comes

Syria: Will It Prove To Be the Empire’s Final Quagmire?

Food From Commodity To Commons

World Coal Demand and Exports Set for New Record Highs in 2024 | OilPrice.com

Can Europe Afford Its Energy Transition

Science Snippets: Microplastics Changing Earth’s Climate

Kansas farmers wrestling with how to save their water source — and their future

#295: Beans on tech | Surplus Energy Economics

All Three Pillars Holding Up the Economy Have Cracked

Why it is urgent to take a proactive attitude towards protecting the extant natural forests

UN Talks Fail To Reach Agreement On Dealing With Rising Risk Of Global Drought

Santa, Please Bring Me a War for Christmas

The Real Cost of Net Zero

Peter Thiel Reveals How Scared Oligarchs Are Of The People

Control Oil and You Control Nations | Art Berman

Over 70% of the world’s aquifers could be tainted by 2100

Farming has always been gambling with dirt – but the odds are getting longer | Gabrielle Chan | The Guardian

Copper Mining: Totally Not Green, But Totally Needed for “Green” Energy

Mainstream Propaganda Machine. Galvanizing US Public for War with Iran. Worldwide Military Escalation? – Global Research

Whoever Does Not Respect the Penny is Not Worthy of the Dollar – Doug Casey’s International Man

Trump And Israel Can’t Wait To Start Bombing Iran

Book Review: After Progress – by Shane Simonsen

Egregious Inequality | Do the Math

The Bulletin: December 5-11, 2024

The Bulletin: December 5-11, 2024

The Argument for Assisted Collapse – George Tsakraklides

Total Grid Collapse Strikes Cuba (Again) | ZeroHedge

Yes, Climate Change Is Probably Going To Kill You

Reductionism Doesn’t Work Holistically

It was always about the oil

#294: The perils of extremes | Surplus Energy Economics

Lavrov Warns Europe The New Cold War Is Turning ‘Hot’ | ZeroHedge

Full Lavrov-Tucker Interview: US & Russia Need To Cooperate ‘For The Sake Of The Universe’ | ZeroHedge

‘Scary’ drought empties one of Bosnia’s largest lakes

Chevron Cuts Permian Capex for 2025 | OilPrice.com

Money is a Claim on Energy – Nate Hagens (The Great Simplification)

The war whores of the military-industrial complex are lighting the world on fire

Global Food Prices Hit 19-Month High As Upward Momentum Sparks Fears Of Stickiness | ZeroHedge

The Three Types of Elites – Charles Hugh Smith’s Substack

Ecological Overshoot: Humanity’s Countdown to Extinction

Too Many Elephants In The Room: The Overpopulation Taboo (Readers’ Poll) – George Tsakraklides

Car tyres shed a quarter of all microplastics in the environment – urgent action is needed

Lead In Gasoline May Have Caused Over 150 Million Excess Cases Of Mental Health Disorders, New Study Shows | ZeroHedge

Escobar: The Syria Tragedy & The New Omni-War | ZeroHedge

‘An existential threat affecting billions’: Three-quarters of Earth’s land became permanently drier in last 3 decades | Live Science

Grey Swans Are Circling – Charles Hugh Smith’s Substack

The Fall of Assad & What it Means for The Middle East (w/ Alastair Crooke) | The Chris Hedges Report

Oil, Power, and Statecraft: The Geopolitics of Energy in a Changing World | Art Berman

Disarming Propaganda | how to save the world

The future of extraction, energy dominance, and federal lands under Trump – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

Shortcut Brains | Do the Math

Ray Dalio predicts global debt crisis, backs Bitcoin, gold

De-Banked: It’s Only a Matter of Time Before It Happens to You

Grass, Roots, and Politics

World Coal Demand and Exports Set for New Record Highs in 2024 | OilPrice.com

East vs. West: A Global Dollar Dump Is Inevitable And The US Must Prepare

The Bulletin: November 14-20, 2024

The Bulletin: November 14-20, 2024

What We Refuse to Believe | how to save the world

“That’s Bait…” Chumming the Media Waters Doesn’t Work Like it Used To – Gold Goats ‘n Guns

US Deficit Explodes: Blowout October Deficit Means 2nd Worst Start To US Fiscal Year On Record | ZeroHedge

When The Show Is Over, The Actors Hold Hands And Take A Bow

Can we keep producing more food in a warmer world?

Civilizational Looting

The US Economy Will Collapse: How Trump Should Handle It

Microplastics In Clouds Impacting Weather

The Seeds of Social Revolution: Extreme Wealth Inequality

The Face At The Front Desk Changes, The Corporation Remains The Same | Patreon

Canadians to Hold National Day of Action Against F-35 Exports to Israel Via the United States – Global Research

Pressure on Canada to Export Water Will Be Immense | The Tyee

Refining Reality: The Hidden Struggles of a World Still Dependent on Oil | Art Berman

Canada Promises Climate Reparations at COP29 While Courting Big Oil at Home – DeSmog

Gazprom Cuts Gas To Austria Off, Just in Time for Winter | OilPrice.com

The Best Mental Health Hack

The 8 Essentials We Need to Control

“We Don’t Have Enough…”: Russia Temporarily Limits Exports Of Enriched Uranium To U.S. | ZeroHedge

A Diesel Powered Civilization – The Honest Sorcerer

Net Zero Rollback

The Impending Collapse of the European Union – by Ugo Bardi

The Great Silence of The Human Lambs – George Tsakraklides

Kremlin Responds To Joe Biden’s Authorization of ATACMS Missile Strikes – Newsweek

The Ten Commandments of War Propaganda

The Cure for What Ails Us: Market Crash and Mass Defaults

Too Much Focus on Carbon – by Kollibri terre Sonnenblume

Gaia’s Forge: When You Are the Hammer

2024 John Peach Peak Oil Report

Nuclear War Threat Mushrooms

The Bulletin: August 1-7, 2024

The Bulletin: August 1-7, 2024

Introducing The Bulletin, a collation of recent articles focusing upon those predicaments flowing from the ongoing collapse of our global, industrialised complex society.

Middle East On The Brink: Goldman Heads Discuss ‘Interconnected Realities’ Of Markets & Geopolitics Amid Looming Iran Strike | ZeroHedge

Russia’s Arctic Energy Expansion A Geopolitical And Economic Gambit

Weathering The Storm: Experts Weigh In On Recession Preparation

World War 3’s Decisive Battle – International Man

How Will Communities Handle Troublemakers?

Incrementalism is the slippery slope to slavery. Or worse, collapse.

EVERYBODY KNOWS THE CAPTAIN LIED – The Burning Platform

Geopolitics: The Anguish of a Divided World | Art Berman

“Anything Could Go Wrong”. Russia’s Drills to Practice the Deployment of Tactical Nuclear Weapons. In Response to the Deployment of Nuclear Capable F-16s. – Global Research

And Suddenly Things Change – by James Howard Kunstler

Has Peak Oil Become Self-Evident Yet?

Margin Calls Trigger Huge Global Equities and Bitcoin Selloff, Gold Fine – MishTalk

How to Build a Survival Community Before The Collapse

US deploys at least 12 warships to Middle East amid soaring tensions, report says

Climate migration is an urgent reality that cannot be ignored – Earth.com

Psychological Mechanisms To Deny Reality And Employ Optimism Bias

US National Debt Tops $35 Trillion for the First Time in History – Global Research

A Critical Juncture for Oil Prices | Art Berman

Global Power Demand Soars IEA Expects 4% Growth in ’24 & ‘25

Promoting Peace And Stability In The Middle East By Unconditionally Backing Its Worst Aggressor | Patreon

Beijing Helicopter Taking Off: China Central Banker Calls For Direct Money Transfers To Households | ZeroHedge

Climate migration is an urgent reality that cannot be ignored – Earth.com

Planetary Boundaries: Exceeding Earth’s Safe Limits

Canada, The Unexpected Winner in the Global Oil Boom

Canada, The Unexpected Winner in the Global Oil Boom

  • The Trans Mountain Expansion Project, now finally completed and operational after years of delays, is changing the fortunes of the oil sands.
  • Canada’s oil sands producers have started ramping up production last year in anticipation of the start-up of exports through the TMX pipeline.
  • The production increases in the oil sands are the result of the expansion of operational projects with existing infrastructure.
Canada

Canada’s oil output is booming as producers ramp up projects and extraction amid expanded market access and narrowing discounts of the Canadian heavy crude to the U.S. benchmark.

The Trans Mountain Expansion Project, now finally completed and operational after years of delays, is changing the fortunes of the oil sands producers in Alberta, giving them access to markets in Asia and the U.S. West Coast.

Constrained for years due to insufficient egress, Canada’s oil now has nearly 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) of additional market access. The expanded Trans Mountain pipeline is tripling the capacity of the original pipeline to 890,000 bpd from 300,000 bpd to carry crude from Alberta’s oil sands to British Columbia on the Pacific Coast.

And producers are taking advantage of this. They began ramping up production at the end of last year in anticipation of the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) start in the first half of this year. Canadian oil firms now get more bang for their buck as the discount of Western Canada Select (WCS), the benchmark for Canadian heavy crude sold at Hardisty in Alberta, has narrowed relative to the U.S. crude oil benchmark, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) in recent weeks.

Moreover, the production increases in the oil sands are the result of the expansion of operational projects with existing infrastructure, so the capital expenditure – which is very high for this type of crude extraction – has been lower than for building projects from scratch.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

IEA’s Staggering Oil Glut is Staggeringly Unlikely

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has become a dishonest broker of information because of its renewable energy bias. This week, it reported that there will be a staggering oil glut by the end of the decade.

“Total supply capacity is forecast to rise to nearly 114 million barrels a day by 2030 – a staggering 8 million barrels per day above projected global demand…This would result in levels of spare capacity never seen before other than at the height of the Covid-19 lockdowns in 2020.”

IEA Oil 2024

It’s important to clarify that the surplus in question pertains to spare capacity, not actual supply. Spare or excess oil capacity arises from production exceeding demand. Understanding the oil supply-demand balances that lead to excess capacity is critical.

Reproducing the IEA’s projections to 2030 from its Oil 2024 report was challenging because it did not include OPEC oil supply data for the projection period (Figure 1). Omitting a third of the world’s supply is significant and makes IEA’s conclusions difficult to verify. When comparing data from OPEC, discrepancies were found in the 2022 and 2023 data compared to IEA’s table.

Figure 1. IEA Table 1b WORLD OIL SUPPLY AND DEMAND - WEO Regions. Source: IEA Oil 2024.
Figure 1. IEA Table 1b WORLD OIL SUPPLY AND DEMAND – WEO Regions. Source: IEA Oil 2024.

Figure 2 shows that the IEA’s projected oil supply-demand surplus of 6.3 million barrels of oil per day (mmb/d) by 2030 is nearly seventy times greater than the average projections from OPEC and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) for the same period.

This significant discrepancy raises a red flag, suggesting potential issues with the IEA’s calculations, assumptions, or both. In two decades of monitoring these three agencies, I’ve never encountered a discrepancy of this magnitude.

Figure 2. IEA expects world oil supply-demand balance to exceed 6 mmb/d 2029-2030.
OPEC and EIA expect supply and demand to be near balance after 2025.
Source: IEA, OPEC, EIA & Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.
Figure 2. IEA expects world oil supply-demand balance to exceed 6 mmb/d 2029-2030.
OPEC and EIA expect supply and demand to be near balance after 2025.
Source: IEA, OPEC, EIA & Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Gold & Oil: Understanding Rather than Fearing Change

Gold & Oil: Understanding Rather than Fearing Change

There is much legitimate (as well as dramatic) talk about the failing US, its debased currency and its identity-fractured/inflation-taxed middle-class which has been increasingly described more aptly as the working poor.

The End, or Just Change?

But is America coming to an end? Will the USD lose its world reserve currency status? Will the greenback disappear? Will gold or BTC save us from all that is breaking before our media-clouded eyes and increasingly centralized state?

Nope.

America is slipping, but not ending.

The USD is being repriced not replaced.

The greenback is still a key spending, liquidity and FX currency. But it’s no longer the premier savings asset or store of value.

Gold (now a Tier-1 asset btw…) will continue to store value (i.e., preserve wealth) better than any fiat money; and BTC will certainly make convexity headlines in the future.

And yes, we all know the Fourth Estate died long before Don Lemon or Chris Cuomo stained our screens or insulted our collective IQ.

And as for centralization, it’s not coming, but already here.

Be Prepared Rather than Emotional

So, yes there is tremendous reason for informed and genuine concern, but rather than wait for the end of the world, it would be far more effective to logically prepare for a changing world.

Rather than debate left or right, black or white, straight or trans, safe or effective, smart (Barrington Resolution) or stupid (Fauci), we’d likely serve our individual and collective minds far better by embracing the logical and tabling the emotional.

Toward that end, we’d be equally better off relying on our own judgement rather than that of the children making domestic, monetary or foreign policy decisions from DC to Belgium…

Logically speaking, the USD (and US of A) is changing.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Oil’s Fate Hinges On OPEC+ Hanging Tough

Oil’s Fate Hinges On OPEC+ Hanging Tough

The global oil market is in OPEC+ walk-up mode.

That should keep prices supported this week ahead of the (now online) gaggle, which falls on June 2.

After that, price direction hinges on the immediate fallout from the meeting, plus bets about the market’s 2H trajectory.

Conventional wisdom points to an extension of the cartel’s current curbs, especially as weakening near-term timespreads suggest that physical conditions aren’t quite as tight as they have been of late.

Bloomberg’s Grant Smith, a well-seasoned OPEC+ watcher, leans that way, and that looks to be a sound call.

The existing reductions amount to ~2 million bpd, and the tap-tightening has contributed to a growing volume of unused capacity — a theme that may get an airing.

Crude’s sentiment this week will also be shaped by indications of just how strong Memorial Day weekend demand has proved to be in the US as the country embraces the start of the traditional driving season and takes to the roads (and skies).

Early signs have pointed to a solid showing, both on the highways and in the skyways.

Russia Discovers Massive Oil and Gas Reserves in British Antarctic Territory

Russia Discovers Massive Oil and Gas Reserves in British Antarctic Territory

  • Russia’s Rosgeo uncovered oil and gas reserves in British Antarctic territory, estimated at around 511 billion barrels.
  • The discovery poses environmental risks and challenges the 1959 Antarctic Treaty, which prohibits oil developments in the region.
  • Geopolitical tensions rise as Russia’s activities in Antarctica are viewed as a move towards resource extraction rather than scientific research, sparking concerns among international observers.
Antarctica

Russia has found huge oil and gas reserves in British Antarctic territory, potentially leading to drilling in the protected region.

The reserves uncovered contain around 511bn barrels worth of oil, equating to around 10 times the North Sea’s output over the last 50 years.

The discovery, per Russian research ships, was revealed in evidence submitted to the Commons Environment Audit Committee last week. The committee was assessing questions regarding oil and gas research on ships owned by the Kremlin’s Rosgeo, the largest geological exploration company in Russia.

Antarctica is currently protected by the 1959 Antarctic Treaty, which prohibits all oil developments in the area.

It was set up to ensure the region was used “exclusively for peaceful purposes” and would “not become the scene or object of international discord.”

The committee heard from minister David Rutley, who assured MPs Russia was conducting scientific research in the region. “Russia has recently reaffirmed its commitment to the key elements of the treaty,” he said.

But Klaus Dodds, a professor of geopolitics at Royal Holloway University, argued the Antarctic policy environment was “arguably at its most challenging since the late 1980s and early 1990s.”

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has created “widespread concern that a worsening relationship with the country will spark strategic competition and make it even more explicit in Antarctica.”

He believes Russian activity in the region equated to hunting for oil and gas as opposed to scientific research.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Biggest Risks of This Decade

Energy Contrarian Featured Image

Since the 2020 pandemic, many things have changed, but nothing more than geopolitics. Wars and clashes that used to be largely national have given way to more regional conflicts that threaten to upend the current world order. The Ukraine War and Israel-Iran conflicts have the potential to lead to world war.

The international arena once dominated by the United States has gradually changed into a more multipolar stage. China and India have grown in economic and military significance, and Russia and Iran have reasserted their influence. Rising world powers are increasingly challenging the over-extended leading power.

“The disintegration of the old order is visible everywhere…It is close to collapse.”

The Economist

Half of world’s nations feel that they are victims of economic and political inequality. A similar sentiment is found in the rising tide of populism—even in rich countries—because most people know that their economic situation has worsened in recent decades. At the core of both is the higher cost of energy and materials.

Figure 1 shows that oil price, inflation and interest rates rise and fall in tandem, and are considerably higher now than during the period before the Covid pandemic. The Ukraine War contributed to an energy shock that has moderated but oil prices have averaged nearly 60% higher after 2020 than they were in the six previous years. U.S. interest rates and inflation are more than three times higher.

Figure 1. U.S. inflation and oil price fell in 2023 but federal funds rate increased. Inflation was lower in Q1 2024, oil price rose and federal funds rate was marginally higher.
Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, EIA & Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.
Figure 1. U.S. inflation and oil price fell in 2023 but federal funds rate increased. Inflation was lower in Q1 2024, oil price rose and federal funds rate was marginally higher.
Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, EIA & Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

French president Emmanuel Macron observed in 2022 that these changes are probably secular.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Is China’s Oil Demand Set For A Major Bounce Back?

Is China’s Oil Demand Set For A Major Bounce Back?

  • China’s extraordinary economic expansion almost singlehandedly drove a supercycle in key commodities since the mid-90s.
  • This robust performance across several major sectors in China’s economy is in sharp contrast to the growth drivers seen last year.
  • China continues to buy oil from Russia and Iran at a discounted price.
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Since the mid-1990s, China’s extraordinary economic expansion almost singlehandedly drove a supercycle in key commodities prices it required to power such growth, including oil and gas. In 2013, it became the world’s largest net importer of total petroleum and other liquid fuels and, as late as 2017, its still high rate of economic growth allowed it to overtake the U.S. as the largest annual gross crude oil importer in the world. Late 2019 saw much of this activity grind to a halt as Covid hit the country, and the economic slowdown was exacerbated by its Draconian ‘zero-Covid’ policy that saw complete shutdowns of major economic centres at the slightest hint of infection. However, 2023 saw it achieve its official gross domestic product (GDP) growth target of “around 5 percent” – posting 5.2 percent in the end. The same official target is in place this year, with the key questions for oil markets being whether this will be achieved and if so, how easily?

16 April saw China’s National Bureau of Statistics release the country’s Q1 GDP figure, which showed a 5.3 percent year-on-year increase. This was way above consensus analyst expectations of 4.6 percent and was also a rise from the Q4 2023’s 5.2 percent. “Aside from the continued decline in the property sector, policy support is filtering through investment,” Eugenia Victorino, head of Asia strategy for SEB in Singapore exclusively told OilPrice.com. “With property sales now 60 percent lower than their mid-2021 peak, transaction volumes are now comparable to levels last seen in 2012,” she added…

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