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Energy vs DNA

Energy vs DNA

Rembrandt van Rijn Landscape With the Rest on the Flight into Egypt 1647

Hmm, energy. Is it a good idea I be drawn back into the subject? We used to do so much on the topic, Nicole Foss and I, in the first years of The Automatic Earth, and before that at the brilliant Oil Drum, where we had all those equally brilliant oil professionals to guide us on. So why revisit it? Well, for one thing, because a friend asked.

And for another because things -may have – changed over the past 15 years or so. Not that I think the peak oil idea, which is that we reached the peak in 2005 or so, changed. Yeah, unconventional oil, shale, fracking etc., came about, but that has nothing to do with peak oil. Just look at the EROEI (energy return) you get from shale. You go from 100:1 to, if you’re lucky, 5:1. You can’t build a complex society on that.

It’s not an accident that shale oil firms are going broke all over; even ultra low interest rates can’t save them. But all that still doesn’t come close to scratching the surface of our energy -or oil, for that matter.- conundrum.

I’ve never understood what the idea behind the Extinction Rebellion is. Or, you know, that they know what they’re talking about. Do they know the physics?

The general idea, yeah, but not how they aim to reach their goals. Far as I can tell, it’s about less CO2 -and methane, supposedly- emissions, but I don’t get how they want to achieve that. I’ve read some but not all of their theories, and it’s not obvious. It feels like they want less of various things, only to replace them with something else. Like they think once oil is gone, you can put wind and solar in its staid, and off we go. Tell me how wrong I am. Please do.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Getting Real About Green Energy: An honest analysis of what it CAN’T promise

Getting Real About Green Energy: An honest analysis of what it CAN’T promise

I want to be optimistic about the future. I really do.

But there’s virtually no chance of the world transitioning gently to an alternative energy-powered future.

These Are The ‘Good Old Days’

I’m often asked where I stand on wind, solar and other alternative energy sources.

My answer is: I love them. But they’re incapable of enabling our society to smoothly slip over to powering itself by other means.

They’re not going to “save us”.

Some people are convinced otherwise. If we can just fight off the evil oil companies, get our act together, and install a national alternative energy system infrastructure, we’ll be just fine.  Meaning that we”ll be able to continue to live as we do today, but powered fully by clean renewable energy.

That’s just not going to happen. At least, not without a lot of painful disruption and sacrifice.

The top three reasons why are:

  1. Math
  2. Human behavior
  3. Time, scale, & cost

I walk through the detail below. I’m doing so to debunk the magical thinking behind the current “Green Revolution” because I fear it offers a false promise.

Look, I’m a huge fan of renewable energy. And I’m 1,000% in favor of weaning the world off of its toxic addiction to fossil fuels.

But we have to be eyes wide open about our future prospects. Deluding ourselves with “feel good” but unrealistic expectations about green energy will result in the same sort of poor decisions, malinvestment, and crushed dreams as fossil-based system has.

As we constantly repeat here at Peak Prosperity: Energy is everything.  

Without as much available, the future is going to be exceptionally difficult compared to the present. Which is why I call the time we’re living in now The Good Old Days.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

How much oil left in America? Not much

How much oil left in America? Not much

If you think no worries because we can get arctic oil, think again. We can’t because icebergs knock the drilling platforms down, and massive amounts of new infrastructure — roads, rail lines, platforms, buildings — are needed to set up drilling in Alaska, since the permafrost soil heaves and sinks like a bucking bronco trying to shake them off.

It’s kind of dumb to be in this situation. In the first two oil shocks in the 1970s, many intelligent people proposed we should buy oil from other nations to keep ours in the ground when foreign oil declined. But hell no, Texas, Oklahoma, and other oil states said we need jobs and huge fat profits for shareholders more than national security as long as possible. I would guess this makes war a likely outcome in the future, which wouldn’t have occurred if we’d kept our oil in the ground.

The source material for this post is: Jean Laherrère, Updated US primary energy in quad (April 30, 2019) https://aspofrance.files.wordpress.com/2019/04/updateduspe2019-3.pdf

***

Philippe Gauthier. May 3, 2019. US Oil Exploration Drops by 95 Percent. Resilience.org 

It is well known that oil discoveries are in continuous decline worldwide in spite of ever-increasing investments. What is less known, however, is that spending on oil exploration is fast dropping in the United States. Exploratory drilling has been decreasing year after year and now stands at only five percent of its 1981 peak. In other words, once the currently producing shale oil wells are gone, there won’t be much to take their place.

According to figures derived from US Energy Information Agency (EIA) data by French oil geologist Jean Laherrère, oil exploration has already peaked twice in the United States. The first time was in the mid-1950s, with just over 16,000 wells drilled in a single year. The second major peak dates back to 1981, with 17,573 exploration wells. This number fell to only 847 in 2017.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

MbS: War With Iran Would Send Oil To Highs “That We Haven’t Seen In Our Lifetimes”

MbS: War With Iran Would Send Oil To Highs “That We Haven’t Seen In Our Lifetimes”

In an interview that aired just days before the one-year anniversary of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi’s disappearance and presumed murder, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman sat for an interview with 60 Minutes – reportedly the most extensive interview he has ever given to a Western media outlet.

During the nearly 15-minute discussion with ’60 Minutes’ correspondent Norah O’Donnell (in an interview that, fittingly, was aired during ’60 Minutes’ 52nd season premier), MbS addressed every controversy afflicting his regime: tensions with Iran and the recent attacks on Abqaiq, the murder of Khashoggi, MbS’s hopes for peace in Yemen and the arrest of female activists despite MbS’s landmark gender reforms like granting women the right to drive.

The two issues from the interview that garnered the most attention were MbS’s insistence that he wasn’t aware of the plot to kill Khashoggi (but that he ‘accepts responsibility’, as a leader should), and the disruption in global oil supplies – triggering a spike in global prices – that could result from a war with Iran (just look at how global benchmarks responded to the attack on Abqaiq, with the largest one-day spike since Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait).

Asked point-blank whether he ordered Khashoggi’s murder, MbS replied “absolutely not” and described the attack as a “heinous crime” (all via a translator).

“Absolutely not. This was a heinous crime. But I take full responsibility as a leader in Saudi Arabia, especially since it was committed by individuals working for the Saudi government.”

When pressed about how he could’ve been unaware of a mission in which some of his closest associates participated, MbS insisted that it would be ‘impossible’ for him to monitor what KSA’s 3 million government employees do on a daily basis.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Oil Explodes 20% Higher, Biggest Jump On Record

Oil Explodes 20% Higher, Biggest Jump On Record

With traders in a state of near-frenzy, with a subset of fintwit scrambling (and failing) to calculate what the limit move in oil would be (hint: there is none for Brent), moments ago brent reopened for trading in the aftermath of Saturday’s attack on the “world’s most important oil processing plant“, and exploded some 20% higher, to a high of $71.95 from the Friday $60.22 close, its biggest jump since futures started trading in 1988.

Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg

As Bloomberg notes, “for oil markets, it’s the single worst sudden disruption ever, surpassing the loss of Kuwaiti and Iraqi petroleum supply in August 1990, when Saddam Hussein invaded his neighbor. It also exceeds the loss of Iranian oil output in 1979 during the Islamic Revolution, according to data from the U.S. Department of Energy.”

Furthermore, in light of news that the Saudi outage could last for months, this could be just the start. As a reminder, according to Morningstar research director, Sandy Fielden, “Brent could go to $80 tomorrow, while WTI could go to $75… But that would depend on Aramco’s 48-hour update. The supply problem won’t be clear right away since the Saudis can still deliver from inventory.”

Of course, should Aramco confirm that the outage – which has taken some 5.7mmb/d in Saudi output after 10 drones struck the world’s biggest crude-processing facility in Abqaiq and the kingdom’s second-biggest oil field in Khurais – will last for weeks, expect the crude juggernaut to continue until the price hits $80, and keeps moving higher.

Finally, here is the price summary from Goldman commodity strategist Damien Courvalin, who earlier today laid out four possible shutdown scenarios, and the price oil could hit for each:

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

How Much Will Oil Surge When Trading Reopens

How Much Will Oil Surge When Trading Reopens

Now that Goldman has successfully sparked a near-frenzy of chaos, confusion (and market buy orders) ahead of tonight’s trading open, the only question is how high will oil surge. And according to some preliminary estimates, oil analysts expect crude prices to jump at least $5 to $10 a barrel at 6pm on Sunday after some 5% of world oil supply was pulled off the market after a drone strike hit a critical Saudi oil facility.

Saudi Aramco lost about 5.7 million barrels per day of output after several unmanned aerial vehicles on Saturday struck the world’s biggest crude-processing facility in Abqaiq and the kingdom’s second-biggest oil field in Khurais. And with Saudi Arabia admitting that it could take weeks to restore full production, Bloomberg reports that the Trump administration is ready to deploy the nation’s emergency oil reserves and help stabilize markets if needed.

While oil slumped 3% last week, dropping amid expectations of an Iran detente following John Bolton’s departure, expect a violent reversal when trading reopens tonight.

“This is a historically large disruption on critical oil infrastructure and these events represent a sharp escalation in threats to global supply with risks of further attacks”, wrote Goldman chief commodity strategist Damien Courvalin. “These events are therefore set to support oil prices at their open on Sunday, especially given recent growth concerns and low levels of positioning. The magnitude of such a price rally is difficult to estimate in the absence of official comments on the timeline and scale of production losses.”

Still, one can try to make some educated estimates of what happens next, with consensus gravitating to a $5-10 spike in kneejerk response.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Goldman Goes “Lehman Weekend” On Oil: Expects Chaos When Trading Reopens

Goldman Goes “Lehman Weekend” On Oil: Expects Chaos When Trading Reopens

Exactly 11 years to the day since traders organized an emergency impromptu CDS unwind session ahead of Lehman’s shocking September 15, 2008 bankruptcy filing, major banks are preparing for similar chaos, only this time in the crude oil market in the aftermath of Saturday’s shocking drone attack on the most important oil processing plant in Saudi Arabia (and the world) which may result in a production shortfall of millions of bpd that stretches for days if not weeks, and lead to an explosion in oil prices (for those who are reading this early on Sunday afternoon, gas up your car now before gasoline prices surge on Monday).

First, we present the email that was just sent out by Saxo’s Christopher Dembik, indicating that when Brent reopens, it will surge as much as $5-10 in the Asian session:

Very short comment on what is happening in the oil market.

Following the events in Saudi Arabia, well-informed market participants expect that oil prices may increase by $5-10 per barrel in the Asian session.

Higher pressure on CNY, but also negative for TRY and INR due to elevated current account deficits.

Too early to assess the exact macro impact by it is bright clear we don’t need an oil shock…

The bottom line: oil may spike much more if the return to normal production takes longer than expected. Sure enough, that is the main point conveyed in an email that was just blasted out by Goldman sales (not research) to the bank’s top clients around the globe, with a message is simple: expect chaos when oil reopens… and sharply higher prices.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Could Be “Weeks” Before Aramco Restores Full Production Capacity As Specter Of $100 Oil Looms

Could Be “Weeks” Before Aramco Restores Full Production Capacity As Specter Of $100 Oil Looms

With the Saudis now racing to restore full oil production to normal levels as one Sunday morningheadline noted, the industry is bracing for a potential significant delay in production — given rumors the fires at the facilities struck in the early hours of Saturday may not be fully “under control” as the kingdom was quick to assure hours after the raging explosions — which could translate into oil prices being very high for a long time. Industry sources said it could take weeks to return full production levels to normal.

Following what Yemen’s Houthis claimed was their own successful targeting of Saudi Arabia’s second largest oil field in the Khurais, as well as the sprawling Abqaiq oil processing facility in Buqyaq  described by Aramco as “the largest crude oil stabilization plant in the world” — the Saudi company acknowledged it was forced to slash its output by half, equal to about 5% of world supply, specifically 5.7 million barrels a day of oil production lost. In the meantime, Saudi Arabia’s stock market fell by 2.3% at Sunday’s open.

Satellite imagery showing the scene at Abqaiq crude processing facility in Buqyaq,Sept. 14, 2019. Via Planet Labs/NBC

What will Monday bring? Upon market opening there’s widespread prediction oil will rally by $5 to $10 per barrel, and as we were among the first to notecould eventually hit $100 per barrel — the latter alarming scenario dependent on how slow or fast the facilities can be brought back online.

As Bloomberg detailed, citing insiders familiar with Aramco operations:

Aramco would need weeks to restore full production capacity to a normal level, according to people familiar with the matter. The producer however can restore significant volume of oil production within days, they said. Aramco could consider declaring force majeure on some international shipments if the resumption of full capacity at Abqaiq takes weeks, they said.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Oil To Hit $100? Half Of Saudi Oil Output Shut After Drone Strikes Cripple World’s Largest Oil Processing Facility

Oil To Hit $100? Half Of Saudi Oil Output Shut After Drone Strikes Cripple World’s Largest Oil Processing Facility

Update: The WSJ is out with an update hinting at just how much the price of oil is set to soar when trading reopens late on Sunday after the Saudi Houthi false-flag drone attack on the largest Saudi oil processing plant:

Saudi Arabia is shutting down about half of its oil output after apparently coordinated drone strikes hit Saudi production facilities, people familiar with the matter said, in what Yemen’s Houthi rebels described as one of their largest-ever attacks inside the kingdom.

The production shutdown amounts to a loss of about five million barrels a day, the people said, roughly 5% of the world’s daily production of crude oil. The kingdom produces 9.8 million barrels a day.

And while Aramco is assuring it can restore output quickly, in case it can’t the world is looking at a production shortfall of as much as 150MM barrels monthly, which – all else equal – could send oil soaring into the triple digits. Just what the Aramco IPO ordered.


Supply loss from KSA may be as high as 150 MM barrels/month. Oil may hit $100.


* * *

What appears to be the most devastating Yemen Houthi rebel attack on Saudi Arabia to date, took place overnight on the world’s largest oil processing facility as stunning videos emerged of massive explosions rocking the major Aramco Buqyaq facility.

Fires burned into the morning daylight hours, with explosions also reported at the Khurais oil field, in what the Houthis said was a successful attack involving ten drones. “These attacks are our right, and we warn the Saudis that our targets will keep expanding,” a rebel military spokesman said on Houthi-operated Al Masirah TV.

Satellite images shows extent of fires following the attacks in eastern Saudi Arabia: NASA Worldview/AP

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Iranian Tanker Still Bound For Syria; US Working To “Disrupt” Oil Transfer: Report

Iranian Tanker Still Bound For Syria; US Working To “Disrupt” Oil Transfer: Report

As the Iranian oil tanker Adrian Darya 1 still appears to be circling in Mediterranean waters off western Cyprus after it turned away from approaching Turkey’s coast this week, a new Wall Street Journal report says it will ultimately attempt to offload its 2.1 million barrels of oil to Syria after all, in contravention of EU sanctions. 

The WSJ report issued late Friday cites US officials who describe a plan already in place to disrupt any ship-to-ship transfer that would get the oil into Syrian hands — precisely what UK/Gibraltar authorities detained the ship for in the first place, at the request of the United States

The U.S. State Department is working to disrupt what it sees as the vessel’s Syrian plan, according to a U.S. official. The State Department has been monitoring two other Iranian tankers in the Mediterranean that could pick up the cargo

As we observed before, all the erratic maneuvering and circling by the Adrian Darya 1 in the past two days between Turkey and Cyprus has actually put the vessel in the vicinity of its original suspected destination for which it was accused of busting EU sanctions in the first place  the Syrian port of Baniyas.

As Reuters described based on tracking data, the vessel “made a U-turn on Friday and headed for Turkey’s Iskenderun port – 200 km (124 miles) north of Syria’s Baniyas refinery, the tanker’s suspected original destination.”


Replying to @TankerTrackers

Just killing time. They might as well just stop moving and save some fuel.

View image on Twitter

“The vessel’s plan, the people said, is to deliver its crude to smaller tankers near Syria. The new itinerary, with the stated destination of Iskenderun, comes after a failed attempt to offload the cargo near Greece, the people said,” according to the WSJ

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Anatomy of the Coming Recession

The Anatomy of the Coming Recession

Unlike the 2008 global financial crisis, which was mostly a large negative aggregate demand shock, the next recession is likely to be caused by permanent negative supply shocks from the Sino-American trade and technology war. And trying to undo the damage through never-ending monetary and fiscal stimulus will not be an option.

NEW YORK – There are three negative supply shocks that could trigger a global recession by 2020. All of them reflect political factors affecting international relations, two involve China, and the United States is at the center of each. Moreover, none of them is amenable to the traditional tools of countercyclical macroeconomic policy.

The first potential shock stems from the Sino-American trade and currency war, which escalated earlier this month when US President Donald Trump’s administration threatened additional tariffs on Chinese exports, and formally labeled China a currency manipulator. The second concerns the slow-brewing cold war between the US and China over technology. In a rivalry that has all the hallmarks of a “Thucydides Trap,” China and America are vying for dominance over the industries of the future: artificial intelligence (AI), robotics, 5G, and so forth. The US has placed the Chinese telecom giant Huawei on an “entity list” reserved for foreign companies deemed to pose a national-security threat. And although Huawei has received temporary exemptions allowing it to continue using US components, the Trump administration this week announced that it was adding an additional 46 Huawei affiliates to the list.

The third major risk concerns oil supplies. Although oil prices have fallen in recent weeks, and a recession triggered by a trade, currency, and tech war would depress energy demand and drive prices lower, America’s confrontation with Iran could have the opposite effect. Should that conflict escalate into a military conflict, global oil prices could spike and bring on a recession, as happened during previous Middle East conflagrations in 1973, 1979, and 1990.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The G-7 Blues

The G-7 Blues


What’s at stake in all these international confabs like the G-7 are the tenuous supply lines that keep the global game going. The critical ones deliver oil around the world. China imports about 10 million barrels a day to keep its operations going. It produces less than 4 million barrels a day. Only about 15 percent of its imports come from next door in Russia. The rest comes from the Middle East, Africa, and South America. Think: long lines of tanker ships traveling vast distances across the seas, navigating through narrow straits. The Chinese formula is simple: oil in, exports out. It has worked nicely for them in recent decades. Things go on until they don’t.

That game is lubricated by a fabulous stream of debt generated by Chinese banks that ultimately answer to the Communist Party. The party is the Chinese buffer between banking and reality. If the party doesn’t like the distress signals that the banks give off, it just pretends the signals are not coming through, while it does the hokey-pokey with its digital accounting, and things appear sound a while longer.

The US produces just over 12 million barrels of oil a day. About 6.5 million of our production is shale oil. We use nearly 20 million a day. (We’re not “energy independent.”) The shale oil industry is wobbling under the onerous debt load that it has racked up since 2005. About 90 percent of the companies involved in shale oil lose money. The capital costs for drilling, hauling a gazillion truckloads of water and fracking sand to the rig pads, and sucking the oil out, exceed the profit from doing all that. It’s simply all we can do to keep the game going in our corner of the planet, but it’s not a good business model. After you’ve proved conclusively that you can’t make a buck at this using borrowed money, the lenders will quit lending you more money. That’s about where we are now.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Save The World By First Saving Yourself

Save The World By First Saving Yourself

We each have a role to play in how the world recovers from the coming crisis

Ripped from today’s headlines:

From news reports like these, it’s understandable to think that our future looks bleak.

At this point we can only ride out the consequences as the systems we depend on collapse and then ebb away — exposing that the structure of our modern way of life is really a just an edifice built of sand.

That may be true. But not necessarily.

I’m here with some good news today. There remains a multitude of options that each of us can and should do to prepare for what lies ahead. And in so doing, we can help to avert the worst of it, as well.

But only if enough of us try. Critical mass is key here.

Yes, the world is busy collapsing around us. That’s true.

But collapse is a process, not an event. It can be ameliorated and even reversed, depending on the actions we decide to take from here.

And there’s still time left to change our fate.  Not much, mind you. But enough to matter.

The good news is that more and more people are heeding the call and taking action. The bad news is that too many still aren’t.

And the worse news is that the many entrenched powers of the status quo are working against our future best interests, as they desperately cling to old notions of advantage, wealth, and privilege.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Another Tanker With Iranian Oil Now Headed For Syria, Intel Sources Say

Another Tanker With Iranian Oil Now Headed For Syria, Intel Sources Say

A new report suggests we could be headed toward yet another Grace 1-type incident and showdown involving an Iranian tanker intercept by US or UK forces.

A tanker full of Iranian oil is said to be currently on its way to Dubai, with an ultimate offload destination of its 600,000 barrels of oil in Syria. According to the breaking Fox report, citing unnamed Western intelligence sources:

The Bonita Queen loaded 600,000 barrels of crude oil on August 2 near the Iranian coast at Kharg Island. Shortly after, the tanker was de-flagged by the country of St. Kitts and Nevis, fearing retaliatory U.S. sanctions.

The vessel is now headed to Dubai, where it will refuel before beginning a months-long journey around the horn of Africa, through the Mediterranean and to the shores of Syria.

Bonita Queen tanker, via Baltic Shipping

The Bonita Queen, according to its reported route, intends to link up with two Syrian-owned tankers in the Mediterranean in the coming months, where it will conduct a ship-to-ship transfer of the Iran-sourced crude. 

Analysts have claimed to identify the Syrian tankers as the “Kader” and “Jasmine” — described as owned by a businessman said to be close to Assad, Muhammad al-Qatirji. Qatirji and his firm, the Qatirji Company, are under sanction by the US Treasury.

We can’t say for sure where Bonita Queen is going because she’s still anchored off of Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz. There are three other vessels currently en route to Syria. Also, BQ still doesn’t officially have an Iranian flag, and without it she’ll risk arrest at Suez https://twitter.com/HezbollahWatch/status/1163891213830959105 …

https://www.ranian-oil-syria-sanctions 

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article… 

Iran Warns US: Don’t Interfere With Tanker’s Passage, Mulls Naval Escort

Iran Warns US: Don’t Interfere With Tanker’s Passage, Mulls Naval Escort

With the Grace 1 now released after two failed attempts of Washington to bring the Iranian tanker under US custody, since renamed the Adrian Darya and flying the Iranian flag, Tehran officials are still refusing to confirm its ultimate destination where it will offload its 2.1 million barrels of oil.

On Monday Iran’s foreign ministry issued new warnings to the United States not to mount any new attempt to seize the tanker. “If this is done or even stated, it is a threat to free shipping,” a spokesman said. “Through its official channels, and especially the Swiss embassy, Iran has warned U.S. officials not to make the mistake of doing so, as they face bad consequences.”

….and there she goes! After 46 days in Gibraltar Waters sparking an international incident with Iran, the Adrian Darya, formerly the Grace 1, is leaving…

Embedded video

Per a breaking Bloomberg report, Iran issued a formal warning to the US via Switzerland to not interfere with the ship’s passage through international waters. 

Furthermore, Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif said at a press conference in Helsinki while attending diplomatic meetings in Finland that Iran cannot be “very transparent” about the tanker’s destination due to US sanctions

He said the US is trying “bully others from purchasing our oil” but expressed hope the Gibraltar court’s release of the tanker would serve to deescalate tensions, according to Bloomberg

The Adrian Darya’s shipping tracking data shows it intends to head to Kalamata, Greece, with an arrival date of Aug. 25, according to reports, where it’s likely to change crew and get fresh supplies. 

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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