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It will be a LONG time coming.

person holding lighted dollar bills — Photo by Jp Valery on Unsplash

One article highlighted below brings out a point that I made two years ago when everyone in the alternative press was writing (as many still are) about how the BRICS nations were determined to replace the US dollar as a global currency:

In early June, a rumour began to circulate — which was widely reported in the Indian press as true — that the government of Saudi Arabia had allowed its petro-dollar agreement with the United States to lapse.

This non-exclusive arrangement between the two countries never required the Saudis to limit their oil sales to dollars or to recycle their oil profits exclusively in U.S. Treasury securities (of which it holds a considerable $135.9 billion) and Western banks.

Indeed, the Saudis are free to sell oil in multiple currencies, such as the Euro, and participate in digital currency platforms such as mBridge, a trial initiative of the Bank of International Settlements and the central banks of China, Thailand, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

Nonetheless, the rumour that this decades-long petrodollar agreement had come to an end reflects the widespread expectation that a seismic shift in the financial system will overturn the rule of the Dollar-Wall Street regime. It was a false rumour, but it carried within it a truth about the possibilities of a post-dollar or de-dollarised world.

While I would disagree with the downtrend destination for the dollar in the last line, the rest confirms what I’ve said in the past two years about the dollar not being replaced with a BRICS currency (or any other currency) anytime soon, though many of my own readers may wish it would be. Collapse of the dollar is not imminent, though the collapse of anything is eventually inevitable.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Debt Brakes and Treaty Requirements About to Smash the EU

June 27, 2024

Debt Brakes and Treaty Requirements About to Smash the EU

The EU has launched an Excessive Debt Proceeding against France. It won’t stop there.

Debt Proceedings

Please note the EU Rebukes France, Italy and Others Over Excessive Debt.

The assessments of the 27 EU states’ budgets and economies will be published by the European Commission on Wednesday, with France, Italy and Belgium among the member states to be reprimanded over their accumulated excessive new debt.

The Commission said it was satisfied that “the opening of a deficit-based excessive deficit procedure is warranted” in the case of seven countries. The group also included Hungary, Malta, Poland and Slovakia.

The EU suspended debt and deficit regulations to help countries cope with the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The rules are now back in place and now any EU country going over debt and deficit limits run the risk of legal action.

EU’s Golden Rules

According to the reformed rules, an EU member state’s debt may not exceed 60% of gross domestic product (GDP).

Highly indebted EU countries with debt levels over 90% of GDP have to reduce their debt ratio by one percentage point annually, countries

Additionally, the general government deficit — the shortfall between government revenue and spending — must be kept below 3%.

According to the commission’s economic forecast, France is at -5.5%, Italy is at -4.4% and Belgium is at -4.4% and will breach this deficit limit in 2024.

Austria, Finland, Estonia, Hungary, Malta, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia also have deficits that are too high according to the rules. Spain is at exactly -3.0%.

Snap Elections

French President Emmanuel Macron was hammered in the European Parliamentary elections as expected in this corner, and generally elsewhere.

Winners: The Far Right

Losers: Renew Europe (Macron), and the Greens.

The response by Macron caught everyone off guard. He dissolved parliament and called for snap elections.

…click on the above to read the rest of the article…

After months of masturbatory freaking out about “the right,” the German government inches towards collapse, as the social democrats realise they’re wildly unpopular and have neither money nor answers

June 18, 2024

After months of masturbatory freaking out about “the right,” the German government inches towards collapse, as the social democrats realise they’re wildly unpopular and have neither money nor answers

The Süddeutsche Zeitung reports on growing discontent with Chancellor Olaf Scholz in the ranks of his own party.

Since January, German political elites have waged an unceasing “fight against the right.” For weeks at a time, the establishment press would report on little else. We have had freakouts about secret right-wing immigrant deportation plans, we have had freakouts right-wing political violence, we have had freakouts about right-wing fifth-columnists, we have had freakouts about televised political debates and we have had freakouts about right-wing song lyrics. We have had every last kind of freakout you could imagine about the right, all of it promoted by an absolutely deranged media establishment eager to revive pandemic-era hysteria. Then, after all of that screeching and scratching and crying and caterwauling, we had the EU parliamentary elections, and just like that – as if someone had simply flipped a switch – we have stopped freaking out about the right.

As campaign tactics go, the “fight against the right” didn’t work as intended. The point of it, I guess, was to blackmail voters into supporting the social democrats, the Greens and the liberals, by warning them that the alternative was fascism. Nobody bought that, and all three government parties got hammered in the European elections. The latest poll pegs their combined support at 32%.

Now the politicians of these parties are awakening with a pounding post-election hangover, and realising they’ve made a huge mistake. As the Süddeutsche Zeitung reports, “it is dawning on the SPD that they have underestimated the importance of migration and domestic security as political issues.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

IEA’s 2030 Outlook – I Don’t Even Know Where To Start

June 15, 2024

Summary

IEA predicts global oil demand will peak by 2030, leading to an 8 million b/d surplus due to Electric Vehicle and energy transition movement.
IEA’s outlook shows a disconnect between GDP growth and oil demand growth, with unrealistic assumptions about EV penetration and gasoline demand drop.
Despite IEA’s flawed projections, there are insights in the report suggesting peak oil supplies this decade, particularly in US shale production.
We see an oil market that’s going to be in a sustainable deficit by 2030.
Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of HFI Research get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate. Learn More »

Wig Rainbow hair Funny Party concept, clown face formed, Fluffy Synthetic Cosplay Anime Fancy Wigs Festive mood — Roman Mykhalchuk

IEA published its latest 2030 outlook yesterday, and I don’t even know where to start. The big headline from the IEA medium-term outlook is that global oil demand will peak by 2030, and oil producers are going to face a surplus as large as ~8 million b/d thanks to Electric Vehicles (“EVs”) and the energy transition movement.

For energy investors, this is the greatest confirmation signal you needed. As a golden rule in energy investing, we’ve learned that fading the IEA has almost always worked. Who remembers IEA’s famous call in March 2022 for Russia to lose ~3 million b/d of oil production following the Ukraine invasion?

We remember, and at the time, we published a piece cautioning those following IEA’s prediction. In addition, we also tweeted at the time the following:

With the benefit of hindsight, Russia lost zero barrels, and we ended up being wrong about the 400k b/d to 600k b/d export loss as well.

Nonetheless, the point of this article is to look at the rationale behind IEA’s massive surplus estimate. There are some notable bullish figures in these charts as well, disguised behind the hideous demand estimates.

Let’s get started.

Delusion

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Sparing vs Sharing: The Great Debate Over How to Protect Nature

June 13, 2024

Sparing vs Sharing: The Great Debate Over How to Protect Nature

What is the best way to save nature – to cordon off areas for parks and open space or to integrate conservation measures on working lands? Recent research makes a case for each of these approaches and has reignited a long-standing debate among scientists and conservationists.

It is one of the biggest questions in conservation: Should we be sharing our landscapes with nature by reviving small woodlands and adopting small-scale eco-friendly farming? Or should we instead be sparing large tracts of land for nature’s exclusive use – by creating more national parks and industrializing agriculture on existing farmland?

The argument between “sparing” and “sharing” as a conservation tool has been raging since researchers first coined the terms more than a decade ago. Arguably it began almost half a century before when Norman Borlaug, the father of the Green Revolution of high-yielding crop varieties, declared that “by producing more food per unit of cultivated area, more land would be available for other uses, including recreation and wildlife.”

E.O. Wilson’s 2016 book Half-Earth upped the ante by calling for us to extend protected areas from the current 15 percent of the earth’s land surface to 50 percent. Research studies and critiques have flourished on both sides.

So where do things stand today? It begins to look as if the sparers are winning the narrow scientific argument by showing that locally, and in the short term, more species are usually saved by segregating conservation from agriculture and other human land uses. But critics say that begs more questions than it answers, overlooking the issue of the long-term sustainability of such islands of biodiversity and failing to address whether we actually need to grow more food.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Ultimate Killer: Pollution Deadlier Than War, Terrorism, and Major Diseases

June 9, 2024

The Ultimate Killer: Pollution Deadlier Than War, Terrorism, and Major Diseases

Researchers reveal that pollution is a greater health threat than that of war, terrorism, malaria, HIV, tuberculosis, drugs, and alcohol combined. The study, involving global experts, examines traditional and lesser-known pollutants, advocating for better monitoring and awareness to mitigate cardiovascular impacts. Immediate action and broad public health campaigns are recommended to confront this escalating crisis. Credit: SciTechDaily.com

Manmade pollutants and climate change contribute to millions of deaths from cardiovascular disease each year, warn a coalition of leading scientists.

A new series published today (June 3) in the Journal of the American College of Cardiology highlights how pollution, in all its forms, is a greater health threat than that of war, terrorism, malaria, HIV, tuberculosis, drugs, and alcohol combined.

The researchers focus on global warming, air pollution, and exposure to wildfire smoke. They also highlight the lesser-known drivers of heart disease including soil, noise and light pollution, and exposure to toxic chemicals. The team includes researchers from the University of Edinburgh, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, Global Observatory on Planetary Health Boston College, Centre Scientifique de Monaco, University Medical Centre Mainz, and the Victor Chang Cardiac Research Institute.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Will the Revolution Be Televised?

June 9, 2024

Will the Revolution Be Televised?

That depends. Will we have water? Electricity? Who will revolt and over what?

Helmeted cop with automatic weapon in the air stands in the middle of an intersection as smoke from arson fills the sky. — The Detroit Rebellion of 1967. In the course of five days, 43 were killed, 33 black and 10 white. 1,189 were injured and 7,200 people arrested. National Guardsmen fired over 150,000 bullets during the riot.

This post may be too long for email. Please read in the app or online if it cuts off.

You will not be able to stay home, brother
You will not be able to plug in, turn on and cop out
You will not be able to lose yourself on skag and
Skip out for beer during commercials
Because the revolution will not be televised

In 1971, Gil Scott-Heron released the song The Revolution Will Not Be Televised from his album Pieces of Man. It was a ground-breaking song, a precursor to rap backed by the great jazz bassist Ron Carter, but more importantly it was a politically charged protest with relevance today, a cry against oppression, and an expression of anger against the mass media which was co-opting the civil rights movement while the Vietnam War raged on.

Gil’s sarcastic indictment of commercial culture at a time when the oppression of systemic racism blew up, rings true today, in the age of 24/7 brainwashing. The commercial-industrial entertainment complex races on, if anything more pernicious than 53 years ago, with journalism weaker than ever, and a proliferation of malevolent outlets of outright lies and propaganda, pioneered by FOX “news.” AM radio is filled with fringe lunatics. I occasionally turn it on during long car drives to get a pulse on crazy, and the internet is littered with similarly unhinged outlets.

Aerial view of four blocks of destroyed Detroit, one block roofless rubble, the rest smoldering. — Aftermath of Detroit riots.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Plastics are everywhere — but mostly in places they shouldn’t be

May 28, 2024

Plastics are everywhere — but mostly in places they shouldn’t be

Turns out, maybe we should have been a bit more responsible with how we used plastics.

Reducing plastic pollution by 5pc yearly may stabilise ocean microplastics: Study - The Statesman

A new study in Toxicological Sciences has millions of people searching the Internet to find out: “are microplastics stored in the balls”?

The short answer is yes, with the understanding “balls” is the colloquial term for testicles. Researchers tested human testicles and dog testicles and found microplastics in every sample. Back in February, a separate study found microplastics in every sample of the human placenta that was tested. In fact, “there hasn’t been a body part that people have looked but haven’t found [microplastics] in,” environmental health researcher Tracey Woodruff told Scientific American.

Microplastics — small pieces of plastic less than 5 millimeters long — are, literally, everywhere. They have been found in clouds, beer, wind, apples, poop, honeybees, and much more. Microplastics have been detected in the Mariana Trench and the Grand Canyon, on uninhabited Pacific islands and at the top of Mount Everest.

Woodruff says “it’s not a stretch to think that we’re just going to find more adverse health effects with microplastics.” Those adverse health effects can include reduced fertility, hormone disruptions, immune dysfunction, and other illnesses, according to experts.

Currently, the World Health Organization is busy with other crises with better fear-mongering potential. So they’re not using this unseen enemy to ratchet up concern. A 2019 report from the World Health Organization looked at the evidence related to microplastics in the water cycle. “Based on the limited information we have, microplastics in drinking water don’t appear to pose a health risk at current levels,” said Dr Maria Neira, a director of Public Health, Environment and Social Determinants of Health.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Oil’s Fate Hinges On OPEC+ Hanging Tough

May 28, 2024

Oil’s Fate Hinges On OPEC+ Hanging Tough

The global oil market is in OPEC+ walk-up mode.

That should keep prices supported this week ahead of the (now online) gaggle, which falls on June 2.

After that, price direction hinges on the immediate fallout from the meeting, plus bets about the market’s 2H trajectory.

Conventional wisdom points to an extension of the cartel’s current curbs, especially as weakening near-term timespreads suggest that physical conditions aren’t quite as tight as they have been of late.

Bloomberg’s Grant Smith, a well-seasoned OPEC+ watcher, leans that way, and that looks to be a sound call.

The existing reductions amount to ~2 million bpd, and the tap-tightening has contributed to a growing volume of unused capacity — a theme that may get an airing.

Crude’s sentiment this week will also be shaped by indications of just how strong Memorial Day weekend demand has proved to be in the US as the country embraces the start of the traditional driving season and takes to the roads (and skies).

Early signs have pointed to a solid showing, both on the highways and in the skyways.

Noxious Disinformation. Climate: The Movie

May 24, 2024

Noxious Disinformation. Climate: The Movie

Refuting lies takes far more time and energy than making them

Spitting oil? An excellent illustration by Jim Cooke perfectly illustrates this article. We are enveloped by disinformation every day.

This article is longer than usual. Slapping down lies takes extra time and work. It may need to be read in the app or in your browser if it’s too long for email.

A few weeks ago, I read an article talking about the potential for the slowing Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) to eventually tip Europe into an ice age. I’ve been aware of this scenario for a long while. On an intuitive level, it’s bewildering to consider as global temperatures inexorably rise. In fact, currently the European continent is warming faster than the world as a whole at 2.3° C above pre-industrial levels compared to 1.3° C globally. Another reader of the article who apparently didn’t understand the importance of AMOC’s role in regulating global temperature (or likely the basics of climate science) jumped on this possibility to share a movie promoting the lie that CO2 as a driver of climate change is a hoax, and posted a link to Climate: The Movie, a slick piece of disinformation posted on YouTube produced by Martin Durkin, a notorious climate change denier. Durkin sees the environmental movement as a threat to personal freedom and in favor of crippling economic development.

Many of you likely know such a denier in your life. The most important thing I can do as a writer is give you the facts needed to persuade others of the dilemma we face. You are my ambassadors. I watched this film as a necessary exercise to understand what this person believes…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Did the Dulles Brothers Seal Our Fate?

May 24, 2024

Did the Dulles Brothers Seal Our Fate?

The “Soviet Threat” which became Washington’s foreign policy mindset was a self-serving creation of Allen and John Foster Dulles. The consequences of their creation and its recreation by the US neoconservatives await us unaddressed.

brothers

Some years ago I reviewed Stephen Kinzer’s book, The Brothers, an extraordinary account of two men long serving at the top of the US government, Secretary of State John Foster Dulles and CIA Director Allen Dulles.

Both were appointed to office by President Eisenhower. Allen Dulles was the Director of the CIA, and John Foster Dulles was the Secretary of State. The interests of the two men’s law firm became in effect the agenda of the government of the United States.

Both men used their power in service of their powerful law firm, Sullivan & Cromwell. Both are examples of the privatization of government to serve private interests. Foreign government that got in the way of their firm’s clients’ interests, they plotted to overthrow.

To justify their use of the US government in service to the clients of their law firm, the brothers invented the “communist threat of world subversion” and inaugurated the Cold War. The brothers came up with six monsters to destroy.

Image: Mohammad Mosaddegh in court, 8 November 1953 (Source: Wikimedia Commons)

The first was the first democratically elected leader of Iran, Mohammad Mossadegh, certainly no communist. Mossadegh’s offense was that he nationalized Iranian oil, thus angering the British government. He also angered the brothers. Sullivan & Cromwell’s client, the J. Henry Schroder Banking Corp, was the financial agent for the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company on whose board Allen sat. The nationalization of Iranian oil also disrupted Foster’s activities in behalf of Chase Manhatten Bank.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Twitter Files Fuel Massie’s Fight Against Government-Funded Censorship

May 24, 2024

Twitter Files Fuel Massie’s Fight Against Government-Funded Censorship

Congressman Thomas Massie has announced HR 8519, legislation aimed at ending the practice of spending taxpayer money to fund various censorship and “disinformation” research programs.

A press release said that Elon Musk’s acquisition of Twitter, and the subsequent publishing of the Twitter Files – a batch of internal documents showing how the government and this social platform colluded in the previous period – played a pivotal role in opening the public’s eyes to the realities of the situation.

We obtained a copy of the bill for you here.

Ever since the 2016 elections and after those in 2020, speaking about what the Twitter Files revealed about online censorship, its methods, and levels, would have been discredited as “misinformation” or a “conspiracy theory.”

And one of the things revealed is that the US federal government had informally enlisted not only tech companies but also universities to do this, many say, unlawful work.

Unless it came as a result of pressure, like any work, it had to be paid for, and Massie now wants to make sure that kind of funding is banned going forward.

In this effort, the Republican senator had the backing of only his party colleagues, with over a dozen of them originally co-sponsoring HR 8519. Since it is blatantly unconstitutional for the money to change hands in any direct way, the bill aims to stop “the workaround”: the government using taxpayer money to further its political goals via various “disinformation” research grants.

Those would typically go to groups or networks made up of “select” universities and researchers. Moreover, HR 8519 seeks to prevent the government from bankrolling “specific programs within the National Science Foundation” which have been identified by the Select Subcommittee on the Weaponization of the Federal Government, which Massie is a member of.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Gresham’s Law Comes for Science

May 23, 2024

Gresham’s Law Comes for Science

Yves here. KLG below describes how science publications have become much less reliable over time, with the proliferation of “open access” journals part of the problem. As he said via e-mail:

As science has hypertrophied, the bad is supplanted the good as spurious quantification of scientific research has come to rule the practice of science. This has in many ways ruined the practice, the art, and the craft of scientific research. Yes, I am one of those.

This has been facilitated by the rise of open-access, mostly virtual publishing, which was not originally considered a threat. On the contrary, open-access online publishing was expected to be a positive good. And it often is. But it often is not. Predatory publishers were not long in appearing as online publishing became accepted. Neo-predatory, if not outright predatory, “journals” are now the repositories of an ever growing mountain, and a form of Gresham’s Law – the bad drives out the good – has taken over much of the scientific literature, which has become “pay-to-play.”

And the finish is something my colleagues and I have only recently determined. Pay-to-publish has extended its tentacles into medical education, probably with equally deleterious effects.

IM Doc has regularly inveighed against a narrower but more dangerous corrupting influence: the way Big Pharma games drug-related studies and touts (typically) small scale studies that promote off-label uses.

By KLG, who has held research and academic positions in three US medical schools since 1995 and is currently Professor of Biochemistry and Associate Dean. He has performed and directed research on protein structure, function, and evolution; cell adhesion and motility; the mechanism of viral fusion proteins; and assembly of the vertebrate heart…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Russia Discovers Massive Oil and Gas Reserves in British Antarctic Territory

May 23, 2024

Russia Discovers Massive Oil and Gas Reserves in British Antarctic Territory

Russia’s Rosgeo uncovered oil and gas reserves in British Antarctic territory, estimated at around 511 billion barrels.
The discovery poses environmental risks and challenges the 1959 Antarctic Treaty, which prohibits oil developments in the region.
Geopolitical tensions rise as Russia’s activities in Antarctica are viewed as a move towards resource extraction rather than scientific research, sparking concerns among international observers.

Russia has found huge oil and gas reserves in British Antarctic territory, potentially leading to drilling in the protected region.

The reserves uncovered contain around 511bn barrels worth of oil, equating to around 10 times the North Sea’s output over the last 50 years.

The discovery, per Russian research ships, was revealed in evidence submitted to the Commons Environment Audit Committee last week. The committee was assessing questions regarding oil and gas research on ships owned by the Kremlin’s Rosgeo, the largest geological exploration company in Russia.

Antarctica is currently protected by the 1959 Antarctic Treaty, which prohibits all oil developments in the area.

It was set up to ensure the region was used “exclusively for peaceful purposes” and would “not become the scene or object of international discord.”

The committee heard from minister David Rutley, who assured MPs Russia was conducting scientific research in the region. “Russia has recently reaffirmed its commitment to the key elements of the treaty,” he said.

But Klaus Dodds, a professor of geopolitics at Royal Holloway University, argued the Antarctic policy environment was “arguably at its most challenging since the late 1980s and early 1990s.”

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has created “widespread concern that a worsening relationship with the country will spark strategic competition and make it even more explicit in Antarctica.”

He believes Russian activity in the region equated to hunting for oil and gas as opposed to scientific research.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

How Might We Undermine the PMC?

May 23, 2024

How Might We Undermine the PMC?

Fourteen years ago, I wrote a very long article that became the lion’s share of Chapter Two of Keith Farnish’s book Underminers. My article was about the Tools of Disconnection — the cultural mechanisms by which we became disconnected from each other and the more-than-human world, and hence willing and able to endure civilization and all the atrocities that it has perpetrated. The image from the article is reproduced above.

I think the article still holds up, though if I were to rewrite it today it would be a lot less strident and blame-y. We have conditioned each other, the only way we could have, and with the best of intentions, to live in a way that no wild creature would ever tolerate. In so doing, we have created, with civilization, a pressure cooker culture that, tragically, seems to bring out the worst in us.

The tools of our disconnection — our education system, the media, propaganda, marketing, political indoctrination, and just our well-intended conditioning of each other from childhood and throughout our lives (“If you want to succeed in this world, you have to do this“) — have, I would assert, led to behaviours that have made us physically unhealthy, chronically frightened, angry, distrustful, dissatisfied, and traumatized, so that we have been cowed into accepting a culture that has, in just a few millennia, horrifically overpopulated and desolated the planet.

The “management” of this utterly unsustainable culture, which is now rapidly falling apart, has required the evolution of a caste system, much like the horrific system that arises in groups of rats in similar conditions of ghastly overcrowding and scarcity. The top caste has been labeled (by Barbara Ehrenreich in the 1970s) the Professional Managerial Caste, or PMC.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article..

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