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Just as President Biden was signing into effect the newly approved foreign defense package which includes $60 billion for Ukraine, the United Kingdom also rolled out its own massive aid package (though paling in comparison), first unveiled Tuesday.

Britain announced its single largest aid package for Ukraine yet, at the equivalent of $620 million (£500 million). According to UK NATO officials, the arms include Storm Shadow missiles among a total of 1,600 strike and air defense missiles, four million rounds of ammo, 60 boats, and over 400 vehicles.

Even though the White House is busy cautioning that in the coming months Russia is likely to make more gains on the front lines, according to fresh words of Jake Sullivan, British leadership is still talking about “winning”.

*Head of the UK military, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, Via The Telegram*

Defense Minister Grant Shapps, for example, had this to say about new aid: “This record package of military aid will give President Zelensky and his brave nation more of the kit they need to kick Putin out and restore peace and stability in Europe.”

“The UK was the first to provide NLAW missiles, the first to give modern tanks, and the first to send long-range missiles,” he added. “Now, we are going even further. We will never let the world forget the existential battle Ukraine is fighting, and with our enduring support, they will win.”

Britain’s military leadership is also echoing this optimism, with UK defense chief, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, telling Financial Times that the West’s new infusion of military aid will help Ukraine increase its long-range strikes on Russian territory:

Ukraine is set to increase long-range attacks inside Russia as an influx of western military aid aims to help Kyiv shape the war “in much stronger ways”, the head of the UK military has said.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Ukraine War Funding and Failed Russian Sanctions. Is the US Empire Shooting Itself in the Foot?

April 26, 2024

Ukraine War Funding and Failed Russian Sanctions. Is the US Empire Shooting Itself in the Foot?

***

This past weekend, April 20, 2024 the US House of Representatives passed a bill to provide Ukraine with another $61 billion in aid. The measure will quickly pass the Senate and be signed into law by Biden within days.

The funds, however, will make little difference to the outcome of the war on the ground as it appears most of the military hardware funded by the $61 billion has already been produced and much of it already shipped. Perhaps no more than $10 billion in additional new weapons and equipment will result from the latest $61 billion passed by Congress.

Subject to revision, initial reports of the composition of the $61 billion indicate $23.2 billion of it will go to pay US arms producers for weapons that have already been produced and delivered to Ukraine. Another $13.8 billion is earmarked to replace weapons from US military stocks that have been produced and are in the process of being shipped—but haven’t as yet—or are additional weapons still to be produced. The breakdown of this latter $13.8 amount is not yet clear in the initial reports. One might generously guess perhaps $10 billion at most represents weapons not yet produced, while $25-$30 billion represents weapons already shipped to Ukraine or in the current shipment pipeline.

In total, therefore, weapons already delivered to Ukraine, awaiting shipment, or yet to be produced amount to approximately $37 billion.

The remainder of the $61 billion includes $7.8 billion for financial assistance to Ukraine to pay for salaries of government employees through 2024. An additional $11.3 billion to finance current Pentagon operations in Ukraine—which sounds suspiciously like pay for US advisors, mercenaries, special ops, and US forces operating equipment like radars, advanced Patriot missile systems, etc. on the ground. Another $4.7 billion is for miscellaneous expenses, whatever that is.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Accepting Our Lack of Agency

April 26, 2024

Accepting Our Lack of Agency

An early morning picture at Black Rock Mountain State Park in Georgia

The last month has been focused on acceptance, and has been building up to the inexorable, immutable, and irrevocable truth that besets us within the confines of the set of predicaments we face. The one thing I constantly see and hear is about all the things that “we” can do to mitigate the situation – all the ways we can “regenerate” nature – and all the ways we can “save the planet.” While I do think that society is beginning to realize that something is wrong, most people are still following the constant narratives being delivered in an attempt to keep the public calm. George Tsakraklides says it best right here, quote:

“The toxic positivity theatre isn’t confined to the corporatocracy. Hope, whether real and justified or morbidly delusional, is an irresistible narcotic for humans.

A hopeful message will always win over bitter truths, and our information machine knows this: news media habitually turn even the most sobering news into fast-consumable entertainment, making a mockery of reality.

It used to be that this was the role of movies: to allow us to experience a funny or terrifying world and entertain ourselves either way, knowing that it is all fake and we are watching from the safety of our sofa. But now the same is done to real, actual news coming from around the world: reality has been gamified, turned into amusement, into a video game in the most morally corrupt, sick, and irresponsible way possible. All of this, in the name of “hope” and “bringing lightness” to our collapse predicament.“

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Iran Vs Israel: What Happens Next Now That Shots Have Been Fired?

April 25, 2024

Iran Vs Israel: What Happens Next Now That Shots Have Been Fired?

In October of 2023 in my article ‘It’s A Trap! The Wave Of Repercussions As The Middle East Fights “The Last War”’ I predicted that a multi-front war was about to develop between Israel and various Muslim nations including Lebanon and Iran. I noted:

“Israel is going to pound Gaza into gravel, there’s no doubt about that. A ground invasion will meet far more resistance than the Israelis seem to expect, but Israel controls the air and Gaza is a fixed target with limited territory. The problem for them is not the Palestinians, but the multiple war fronts that will open up if they do what I think they are about to do (attempted sanitization). Lebanon, Iran and Syria will immediately engage and Israel will not be able to fight them all…”

So far, both Lebanon and Iran have directly engaged Israeli military forces and civilian targets. Syrian militias are also declaring they will once again start attacking US military bases in the region. In my article ‘World War III Is Now Inevitable – Here’s Why It Can’t Be Avoided’ published on April 5^th I noted that:

“I warned months ago…that the war in Gaza would expand into a multi-front conflict that would probably include Iran. I also warned that it would be to Israel’s benefit if Iran entered the war because this would eventually force the US to become directly involved. To be sure, Iran has already been engaging in proxy attacks on Israel through Lebanon, but Israel’s attack on the Iranian “embassy” or diplomatic station in Syria basically ensures that Iran will now directly commit to strikes on Israeli targets.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Oil Markets Were Unwise But Right in the Israel-Iran Crisis

April 25, 2024

Oil Markets Were Unwise But Right in the Israel-Iran Crisis

The Middle East seemed to be on the brink of war last week and oil prices fell. Was the market wrong?

Brent futures price closed at $90.45 per barrel on Friday, April 12 before Iran’s missile and drone attack on Israel (Figure 1). When markets opened on Monday, April 15, prices rose less than $1 before ending lower and closing at $90.02 on Tuesday. After Israel’s counter-attack on Friday, April 19, Brent rose from $86.96 to almost $91 only to close at $87.29.

Figure 1. Brent futures price fell -$3.16 (-3%) from $90.45 to $87.29 for the week ending April 19. Source: CME & Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

This seems remarkable considering that oil flows through the Persian Gulf could have been disrupted. About 15.5 mmb/d (million barrels per day) of crude oil pass through the Strait of Hormuz (Figure 2). There’s an additional 5 mmb/d of refined products, and 10 bcf of liquefied natural gas.

Figure 2. Crude oil volumes that passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the first half of 2023. Source: Modified from @Nate Hagens with EIA data & Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

There was a time when military outbreaks in the Middle East would have caused a sharp increase in world oil prices. Figure 3 shows a comparison of Brent price in the one hundred days following the 1990 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and after the 2023 Hamas attacks on Israel.

Figure 3. Comparison of Brent price in the one hundred days following the 1990 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and after the 2023 Hamas attacks on Israel. Source: Bloomberg and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc. — Figure 3. Comparison of Brent price in the one hundred days following the 1990 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and after the 2023 Hamas attacks on Israel. Source: @johnauthers (Bloomberg) and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

It’s worth pointing out that there is no major oil production in Israel or in surrounding countries. The involvement of Iran in the recent conflict, however, makes these two events comparable at least in the last few weeks.

There are a slew of mainstream narratives for oil market’s phlegmatic reaction to recent attacks in the Middle East.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Sudan on brink of collapse and starvation as country marks one year of civil war

April 24, 2024

Sudan on brink of collapse and starvation as country marks one year of civil war

Sudanese security forces patrol in a commercial district in Gedaref city in eastern Sudan on April 3, 2024.

EBRAHIM HAMID/AFP/AFP via Getty Images

CNN —

As Sudan marks the grim anniversary of a year-long conflict, aid agencies have warned that the country teeters on the edge of collapse, facing an unprecedented humanitarian crisis that has been largely ignored by the rest of the world.

Islamic Relief, a humanitarian and development agency, painted a stark picture of Sudan’s situation, warning that it is on the brink of mass famine, with young children facing the prospect of starving to death.

The situation in Sudan is dire, with over 8.4 million people, including 2 million children under the age of 5, forced to flee their homes in the wake of the conflict, according to Doctors Without Borders (MSF).

Despite these alarming figures, the international response has been woefully inadequate, with only 5% of the 2024 humanitarian response plan for Sudan funded thus far, Islamic Relief said in a statement.

The agency’s country director for Sudan, Elsadig Elnour, said: “Over the past year I’ve seen my country descend into violence, madness, and destruction, neglected by the rest of the world.”

The conflict, which has pitted the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) against the paramilitary group Rapid Support Forces (RSF), has left millions displaced and countless civilians dead or severely injured.

UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk warned in a statement Monday of a further escalation in violence in Sudan “as parties to the conflict arm civilians, and more armed groups join the fighting.”

Since the start of the civil war, thousands of homes, schools, hospitals, and other vital civilian structures have been destroyed, “plunging the country into a severe humanitarian crisis, and creating the world’s largest displacement crisis,” his office said.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Russia warns the world is on the brink of a ‘direct military clash’ between nuclear powers

April 23, 2024

Russia warns the world is on the brink of a ‘direct military clash’ between nuclear powers

Russia warned Monday that the risk of a “direct military clash” between Russia and nuclear powers in the West is rising.

“Westerners are dangerously balancing on the brink of a direct military clash between nuclear powers, which is fraught with catastrophic consequences,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in a video message to the participants of the Moscow Nonproliferation Conference.

The comments come after Russia reacted angrily to the U.S. House of Representatives passing a $61 billion foreign aid package for Kyiv at the weekend.

House lawmakers approved the aid Saturday despite long-standing objections from hardline Republicans; the bill now passes to the Democratic-majority Senate, which is expected to approve the legislation later this week before it’s passed to President Joe Biden to sign it into law.

U.S. President Joe Biden and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy react during a joint press conference at the White House in Washington, U.S., December 12, 2023.

Leah Millis | Reuters

The aid is a lifeline for Ukraine, whose forces in the east of the country have had to ration their usage of shells amid shortages of supplies; Russian forces have been making gains in the Donbas region, with Ukraine pleading for more air defense systems, artillery and ammunition to turn the tide in the war.

Ukraine is given a reprieve by the U.S., but faces race against the clock over weapons supplies

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy thanked U.S. lawmakers saying the bill passed by the House “will keep the war from expanding, save thousands and thousands of lives, and help both of our nations to become stronger.” He urged the Senate to pass the bill as quickly as possible.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

A $250 Million War Game and Its Shocking Outcome

April 23, 2024

A $250 Million War Game and Its Shocking Outcome

At a cost of $250 million, Millennium Challenge 2002 was the largest and most expensive war game in Pentagon history.

With over 13,500 participants, the US government took over two years to design it.

The exercise pitted Iran against the US military. Washington intended to show how the US military could defeat Iran with ease.

Paul Van Riper, a three-star general and 41-year veteran of the Marine Corps, led Iranian forces in the war game. His mission was to take on the full force of the US military, led by an aircraft carrier battle group and a large amphibious landing force in the Persian Gulf.

The results shocked everyone…

Van Riper waited for the US Navy to pass through the shallow and narrow Strait of Hormuz, which made them sitting ducks for Iran’s unconventional and asymmetric warfare techniques.

The idea is to level the playing field against a superior enemy with swarms of explosive-laden suicide speedboats, low-flying planes carrying anti-ship missiles, naval mines, and land-based anti-ship ballistic missiles, among other low-cost but highly effective measures.

In minutes, Van Riper emerged victorious over his superior opponent and sank all 19 ships. Had it been real life, 20,000 US sailors and marines would have died.

Millennium Challenge 2002 was a complete disaster for the Pentagon, which had spent a quarter of a billion dollars to set up the extensive war game. It produced the exact opposite outcome they wanted.

So what did the Pentagon do with these humbling results?

Like a child playing a video game, they hit the reset button. They then rigged and scripted the game so that the US was guaranteed to win.

After realizing the integrity of the war game had been compromised, a disgusted Van Riper walked out mid-game. He then said:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

War, fear of war spur global military spending to new record: SIPRI report

April 23, 2024

War, fear of war spur global military spending to new record: SIPRI report

New high of $2.4 trillion is the ninth straight annual increase, suggesting the trend will continue, research institute says.

The world spent $2.4 trillion on military forces last year, the highest amount ever recorded by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

SIPRI has been monitoring military expenditures since 1949 and found in its annual report released on Monday that in 2023 they rose to 2.3 percent of the global gross domestic product (GDP) from 2.2 percent the year before.

It meant that every man, woman and child on the planet was taxed an average of $306 for military spending last year – the highest rate since the Cold War.

The increased spending exactly matched the global rate of inflation of 6.8 percent, so it doesn’t necessarily translate into greater military efficacy everywhere.

But as SIPRI said, spending was not evenly spread out because “world military expenditure is highly concentrated among a very small group of states”.

The United States remained the biggest spender at $916bn, representing 37 percent of the world’s military outlays. China came second with an estimated $296bn.

Russia was third at $109bn although SIPRI considers this an underestimation “due to the increasing opaqueness of Russian financial authorities since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022”.

India came fourth at $83.6bn.

The rate of increase in military spending was also uneven with European budgets ballooning due to the war in Ukraine.

The belligerents

Ukraine increased its defence spending by 51 percent to $64.8bn – not including $35bn in military donations from allies. That meant it was devoting 37 percent of its GDP and nearly 60 percent of all government spending to defence, SIPRI said.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Israel’s strike on Iran: Crisis shows how badly Iran and Israel understand each other

April 21, 2024

Israel’s strike on Iran: Crisis shows how badly Iran and Israel understand each other

Reuters

Israel says it will defend itself against Iran – but its allies want to avoid a wider Middle East war

Israel’s attack on Iran was not the fierce response that US President Joe Biden and other western leaders had feared.

They have been urging Israel to draw a line under the dangerous series of events that started with Israel’s assassination of a senior Iranian general in Damascus on 1 April.

More than six months after the Hamas attacks on Israel, war continues in Gaza and has spread to the area either side of the Lebanon-Israel border and to the Gulf.

The fear is that the Middle East is on the brink of an all-out war, with global as well as regional dangers.

The Iranians are playing down the significance of what’s happened in Isfahan.

Initial reports said there had been no attack. Later, an analyst on state TV said air defences had knocked out drones that had been launched by “infiltrators”.

Official media outlets have posted jokey photos of miniature drones.

Israel was responding to the attack last Saturday from Iran. Despite years of enmity and threats it was the first time since the establishment of the Islamic Republic in 1979 that Iran had launched a direct strike from its territory onto Israel’s.

During that attack Iran launched more than 300 missiles and drones. Almost all of them were destroyed by Israel’s air defences, augmented by forces from the US, UK and Jordan.

The Iranians had made their intentions clear, giving Israel and its allies time to prepare themselves, and quickly issued a statement at the UN in New York that their retaliation was over.

Mr Biden urged Israel to “take the win” but Israel insisted it would hit back.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

A World At War (Again)

April 21, 2024

A WORLD AT WAR (AGAIN)

World War III has already begun, and not much can stop it. That is an unpopular statement, for several reasons. Chief among them is the denial people are afflicted with when it comes to considering uncomfortable truths. But no matter what, the coming years will change the face of the earth forever, and we need to stop denying the reality of it. Instead, we need to wake up to the changes and begin preparing physically and mentally for the collapse of the civilization that we have known for so long. For a post-collapse world that brings into question our place in on this planet.

WE ARE ALREADY AT WAR

It does not have to feel like there is a global conflict for there to be one. In fact, such a war could already be set for kinetic manifestation at a moment’s notice, only waiting for a single small spark to ignite an undeniable conflagration. Some crazy nationalist shot Archduke Ferdinand back in 1914 and started the First World War, at least on paper. In reality, that war was already being fought, but that spark was the shock that everyone notes as the beginning. In our uniquely American understanding of it, World War II kicked off after the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, but there were plenty of places in Europe at the time that would say confidently that the war was already raging before that. We Americans just hadn’t gotten involved officially yet, that’s all. The marks of tension and brewing conflict had been there all along, and in hindsight, we can plainly see the ‘world domination’ goal of the aggressors.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Markets Are Biting Their Lips over Global Chaos

April 21, 2024

Markets Are Biting Their Lips over Global Chaos

And Fed Chair Powell is joining them because suddenly nothing is going right for his soft-landing plans!

Rising Middle-East tensions are driving up the price of crude oil and driving down the price of stocks and value of bonds. Analysts are saying oil could go to $100/bbl if the conflict between Israel and Iran goes any further. If Israel responds to the recent attack by Iran, some think Iran is likely to fight back with the West in a variation of what it has already done via its proxies. In the worst-case scenario for oil, Iran will block the Strait of Hormuz to tanker traffic, using its proxies to do there as they have already done on the other side of the Arabian Peninsula (or doing that directly, themselves, from Iran). That could raise oil to $130/bbl, which would blow the doors off inflation. Societe Generale puts the risk at $140/bbl if the US gets involved. For now, however, the oil market is just biting its lips … like this:

Well, that’s Fed Chair Jerome Powell, but he is biting his, too, as everything turns against his flight plans for a soft landing at the end of his own war … with inflation.

That’s because the Fed pumped so much money into the economy during the Covid lockdown fiasco that he can’t get the surplus money out quickly enough. As noted yesterday, and caught in the news again today, Powell has clearly pushed rate cuts back once again. In fact, Bank of America is now resetting its calendar for the first cut to March of next year (going for a different March than the one most analysts originally thought they would get…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Almost Everything is About Oil in the Middle East

April 21, 2024

Almost Everything is About Oil in the Middle East

Perhaps the most extraordinary part of Iran’s April 13 attack on Israel was that it was countered by a coalition that included Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). It is also noteworthy that this was the first time that the United States engaged militarily in Israel’s defense.

The events of April did not begin with the October 6, 2023 strike on Israel from Gaza but have their origins decades earlier. It is now evident, however, that the catalyst for Hamas’ attack was the impending normalization of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel.

This would have had significant consequences for Israel’s oil supply, an important aspect of the present crisis that is rarely discussed by the press or politicians. Almost everything is about oil in the Middle East.

The Saudis were ready to join the Abraham Accords that in 2020 established ties between the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, Morocco and Israel on regional security and trade.

As a direct consequence, Israel was officially moved under the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility in early 2021, shifting from its decades-long alignment with the U.S. European Command (EUCOM).

The timing of the Gaza incursion into Israel in October was designed to prevent Saudi Arabia from joining the Abraham Accords.

It is hardly a coincidence that Houthi attacks on shipping in the Suez Canal and the Red Sea started in November. Almost 9 million barrels of oil per day (mmb/d) pass through the Canal and the Bab al-Mandab Strait.

It’s worth recalling that the Houthis have been in an armed conflict with Saudi Arabia in Yemen since 2015, and were responsible for attacking the main Saudi refinery complex in 2019. Both Hamas and the Houthis, along with Hezbollah in Lebanon, are funded and largely directed by Iran.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Iran on the Rise: Retaliation, “Important Military Targets”. Peter Koenig

April 18, 2024

Iran on the Rise: Retaliation, “Important Military Targets”. Peter Koenig

The warning was on the wall. Ever since Israel attacked “out of the blue” on 1 April 2024 the Iranian Consulate in Damascus, Syria, killing 7, including two generals, an Iranian retaliation was to be expected.

The New York Times (NYT) reports

“Iran mounted an immense aerial attack on Israel on Saturday night, launching more than 200 drones [other sources talk about 300 drones] and missiles in retaliation for a deadly Israeli airstrike in Syria two weeks ago, and marking a significant escalation in hostilities between the two regional foes.”

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) say there were over 300 areal threats, including some 200 drones, 100 ballistic missiles, and 30 cruise missiles. See this.

Israel and her Western friends claim that many of the drones were intercepted by IDF and the help from allied military support. The latter apparently include the UK, France, and Jordan – and most likely also US-NATO forces that have long been stationed in the region.

Nevertheless, according to several RT reports, a large-scale missile and drone attack against Israel has been a success, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has said in a statement published by IRNA news agency. The Islamic Republic’s military managed to “hit and destroy” some “important military targets,” it added, without providing any further details.

Short video clips published by Iranian media on social networks, viewing Islamic Republic’s missiles hitting their targets in Israel. Several missiles appeared to have been striking targets in a settlement, RT reports, however without being able to confirm the veracity of the clips.

The Guardian informs, that it was the Islamic Republic’s first-ever direct attack on the Jewish State, a development that brings the two countries to the brink of all-out conflict after more than a decade of shadow war and soaring stress six months into Israel’s war in Gaza, following the Hamas attack last October.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Purpose Of War According To George Orwell (1984)

April 17, 2024

The Purpose Of War According To George Orwell (1984)

Some food for thought from George Orwell’s ‘1984’…

Does anything really ever change? (emphasis ours)

The primary aim of modern warfare is to use up the products of the machine without raising the general standard of living.

Ever since the end of the nineteenth century, the problem of what to do with the surplus of consumption goods has been latent in industrial society. From the moment when the machine first made its appearance it was clear to all thinking people that the need for human drudgery, and therefore to a great extent for human inequality, had disappeared. If the machine were used deliberately for that end, hunger, overwork, dirt, illiteracy, and disease could be eliminated within a few generations. And in fact, without being used for any such purpose, but by a sort of automatic process — by producing wealth which it was sometimes impossible not to distribute — the machine did raise the living standards of the average human being very greatly over a period of about fifty years at the end of the nineteenth and the beginning of the twentieth centuries.

But it was also clear that an all-round increase in wealth threatened the destruction — indeed, in some sense was the destruction — of a hierarchical society. In a world in which everyone worked short hours, had enough to eat, lived in a house with a bathroom and a refrigerator, and possessed a motor-car or even an aeroplane, the most obvious and perhaps the most important form of inequality would already have disappeared. If it once became general, wealth would confer no distinction. It was possible, no doubt, to imagine a society in which wealth, in the sense of personal possessions and luxuries, should be evenly distributed, while power remained in the hands of a small privileged caste.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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