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‘The economy is going to collapse,’ says Wall Street veteran Novogratz. ‘We are going to go into a really fast recession.’

‘The economy is going to collapse,’ says Wall Street veteran Novogratz. ‘We are going to go into a really fast recession.’

Veteran investor and bitcoin bull Michael Novogratz’s economic outlook is not rosy

Michael Novogratz, founder and chief executive officer of Galaxy Digital Capital Management LP, spoke with MarketWatch on Wednesday ahead of a historically aggressive Fed rate hike.

Veteran investor and bitcoin bull Michael Novogratz doesn’t have a rosy outlook on the economy, which he described as headed for a substantial downturn, with the likelihood of a “fast recession” on the horizon.

“The economy is going to collapse,” Novogratz told MarketWatch. “We are going to go into a really fast recession, and you can see that in lots of ways,” he said, in a Wednesday interview before the Federal Reserve decided to undertake its biggest interest-rate hike in nearly three decades.

“Housing is starting to roll over,” he said. “Inventories have exploded.”

“There are layoffs in multiple industries, and the Fed is stuck,” he said, with a position of having to “hike [interest rates] until inflation rolls over.”

Central-bank policy makers agreed to deliver an unusual 0.75-percentage-point rate increase, concluding a closely watched two-day policy meeting with a move that would push the Fed’s benchmark federal-funds rate rising to a range between 1.5% and 1.75% as it steps up the effort to quell an inflation rate that is hovering around a 40-year high.

It was the largest increase in the central bank’s policy rate since November 1994.

Before the Fed announced its decision, Novogratz speculated — accurately, it turned out — that the central bank would lift interest rates by 75 basis points and that the market would rally on that news. He also predicted that stocks will sell off in the coming days.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

ECB Holds Emergency Meeting To Discuss Market Turmoil

ECB Holds Emergency Meeting To Discuss Market Turmoil

Last week, shortly after the ECB’s latest meeting disappointed markets and concluded without a discussion of Europe’s growing bond market fragmentation (which is to be expected since QE – the glue that held the Euro area’s bond market together – is ending) and which has since sent Italian bond yields soaring above 4%, we joked that “at this rate the ECB would make an emergency rate cut” just hours after announcing an end to QT and guiding to a July rate hike.

Once again, our “joke” was spot on because on Wednesday morning, just hours before the Fed’s first 75bps rate hike sine 1994, and with Italian bonds in freefall, European Central Bank “unexpectedly” announced it would hold an emergency, ad hoc meeting of its rate-setters starting 11am CET in which it would “discuss current market conditions.” It wasn’t immediately clear if a statement would be published after the confab.

The meeting, which comes less than a week after the rate-setting governing council’s last vote, raised investor expectations that the central bank is preparing to announce a policy instrument to stave-off another debt crisis in the region, which can only come in the form of more QE… which is ironic at a time when the ECB just announced it was phasing out all QE!

Italian government bonds rallied in price following news of the planned meeting, reversing some of the recent sell-off that analysts said brought the country’s borrowing costs towards the “danger zone”. Gilles Moec, chief economist at Axa, an insurer, said the “stakes are high” for the ECB “now that everyone is dusting off their debt sustainability spreadsheets for Italy, they probably need to go up an extra notch”.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Market Is “On The Edge Of A Huge Collapse”

The Market Is “On The Edge Of A Huge Collapse”

This week I had a chance to interview my friend Andy Schectman, President & Owner of Miles Franklin Precious Metals, a company that has done more than $5 billion in sales.

Andy is a world-renowned expert in the field of precious metals and took the time to answer some pressing questions I had about the global economic picture, metals and markets in general.

This interview is not an advertisement; I sought out Andy’s opinion because I believe him to be a thought-leader in the space of metals and monetary policy.

Here is my unedited conversation with Andy from this week:

Hi, Andy. First off, what do you make of China shutting itself down again for Covid this recent time. They may be starting to lift restrictions now, but is there any chance they are doing this on purpose and it’s unrelated to Covid, in your opinion?

Well that would certainly add to the price inflation in the west and perhaps force the hand of the Fed a bit faster, but I would like to think they are not that stupid.

You can see the massive unrest and anger from their population being forced to lock down. It seems that the Chinese probably created Covid in the Wuhan lab but I am not sure they deliberately released it.

As you can see, once let out of the bottle, it goes everywhere, even through lockdowns.

Regardless, when do you think China will return to some normalcy?

Normalcy? Not sure we will ever see normalcy as long as the communist party runs the show. However, Covid will burn itself out and the lockdowns will end but it could take months.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

THE WOLF STREET REPORT: Tech Bust Takes Next Step: Layoffs & Hiring Freezes

THE WOLF STREET REPORT: Tech Bust Takes Next Step: Layoffs & Hiring Freezes

Dotcom Bust 2 has begun. Only bigger (you can also download the WOLF STREET REPORT wherever you get your podcasts).

Enjoy reading WOLF STREET and want to support it? Using ad blockers – I totally get why – but want to support the site? You can donate. I appreciate it immensely. Click on the beer and iced-tea mug to find out how:

The end of fiat hoving into view…

The end of fiat hoving into view…

Tragic though the situation in Ukraine has become, the real war which started out as financial in character some time ago has now become both financial and about commodities. Putin made a huge mistake invading Ukraine but the West’s reaction by seeking to isolate Russia and its commodity exports from the global marketplace is an even greater one.

Furthermore, with Ukraine being Europe’s breadbasket and a major exporter of fertiliser, this summer will bring acute food shortages, worsened by China having already accumulated the bulk of the world’s grains for its own population. Inflation measured by consumer prices has only just commenced an accelerated rise.

Because they discount falling purchasing power for currencies, rising interest rates, and collapsing bond prices are now inevitable. Being loaded up with bonds and financial assets as collateral, the consequences for the global banking system are so significant that it is virtually impossible to see how it can survive. And if the banking system faces collapse, being unbacked by anything other than rapidly disappearing faith in them fiat currencies will fail as well.

Unforeseen financial and economic consequences

Back in the 1960s, Harold Wilson as an embattled British Prime Minister declared that a week is a long time in politics. Today, we can also comment it is a long time in commodity markets, stock markets, geopolitics, and almost anything else we care to think of. The rapidity of change may not be captured in just seven calendar days, but in recent weeks we have seen the initial pricking of the fiat currency bubble and all that floats with it.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

All Hell Breaks Loose On Russian Oil Embargo Fears: Futures, Stocks Plunge As Oil Soars To $139, Gold Hits $2,000

All Hell Breaks Loose On Russian Oil Embargo Fears: Futures, Stocks Plunge As Oil Soars To $139, Gold Hits $2,000

All hell is breaking loose in the Sunday evening session where S&P equity futures and Asian markets tumbled, while havens such as sovereign bonds and gold soared amid fears of an inflation shock in the world economy as oil soared on the prospect of a ban on Russian crude supplies.

Emini futures were down 1.6% as of 9:00pm ET, while Nasdaq 100 futures plunged 2% and European futures were down 3%.

Ukraine conflict may portend end to current world trading system

Ukraine conflict may portend end to current world trading system

At the beginning of nearly every war including the current one in Ukraine, there are those who loudly declare that it will be over shortly and then business-as-usual can resume. They are rarely right. While no one can say for certain what the trajectory of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will be, the economic warfare that is going on alongside it is very likely to destroy the current global trading system.

The last time a worldwide trading system was destroyed was just over a century ago. From the late 1800s up to the eve of World War I the dominance of the British fleet on the high seas and the reach of the British Empire created an era of stability and interconnection highly favorable to worldwide trade.

Then, World War I blew that stability and interconnection apart. Later, the Great Depression led to a global trade war that finished off the remnants of the international trading system. The world did not achieve a trading system that spanned the globe unhampered again until the end of the Cold War—which had split the world into two trading blocks for nearly 50 years.

It is unlikely that Russia will simply back down even in the face of crippling economic sanctions. Things have gone too far and the Russian leadership has staked too much on its position that Russia must have its own sphere of influence free from NATO soldiers and rockets. What the Russians have historically called “the near abroad” must not harbor threats to Russian security, they say. Think of this as Russia’s Monroe Doctrine.

The sanctions against Russia are hard to keep track of, ambiguous and ever expanding. Their consequences, however, are clear. Through pressure exerted by the United States and European countries, most of the world will be forced to curtail its trade with Russia sharply.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“The Market Is Starting To Fail”: Buyers Balk At Russian Oil Purchases Despite Record Discounts, Sanction Carve Outs

“The Market Is Starting To Fail”: Buyers Balk At Russian Oil Purchases Despite Record Discounts, Sanction Carve Outs

While in their unprecedented broadside of sanctions on Russia, the U.S. and Western allies went out of their way to spare Russian energy shipments and keep economies humming and voters warm, the oil market has gone on strike anyway. Acting as if energy were already in the crosshairs of Western sanctions officials, refiners have balked at buying Russian oil and banks are refusing to finance shipments of Russian commodities, the WSJ reports citing traders, oil executives and bankers.

This self-imposed embargo which has effectively halted a majority of Russian oil shipments, threatens to drive up energy prices globally by removing a gusher of oil from a market that was tight even before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Meanwhile, Russia, waging war and in need of revenue with its financial system in turmoil, is taking extreme steps to convince companies to buy its most precious commodity.

We previously reported that owners of oil tankers had already started to avoid Russian ports because of both the military invasion of Ukraine and apprehension that sanctions for oil could also come soon, and as a result rates for oil tankers on Russian crude routes had exploded as much as nine-fold in the past few days.

But now, amid growing fears they will fall afoul of complex restrictions in different jurisdictions, refiners and banks are balking at purchasing any Russian oil at all, traders and others involved in the market say. Market players also fear that measures that target oil exports directly could land as fighting in Ukraine intensifies.

“This is going to make it very complex to trade with Russia,” Sarah Hunt, a partner at law firm HFW who works with commodities traders, said of the sanctions laid out as of Monday. “These sanctions against Russia will have an incredible effect on global trade and on trade finance.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

All Hell Breaks Loose As Global Markets Open: Stocks Crash, Oil & Gold Surge

All Hell Breaks Loose As Global Markets Open: Stocks Crash, Oil & Gold Surge

Update (1800ET): As expected – all hell breaks loose in global markets as futures open…

US equity futures are down 3% at the open – erasing all of Friday’s melt-up…

The Euro is plunging…

Bitcoin was already sliding into the open…

Treasuries are bid…

Which implied 10Y Yields are down around 10bps…

Gold is also soaring…

As is palladium, and crude oil prices are shooting back up to last week’s highs…

So is tomorrow ‘Lehman‘ or ‘1987‘?

*  *  *

As we detailed earlier, a great deal has changed for Russia (and Ukraine) since the close on Friday and traders are bracing for chaotic movers in commodity, bond, and FX markets.

Amid ATMs drying up, Central and Commercial bank sanctions (as well as personal sanctions), and talk of SWIFT-constraints; combined with significant credit ratings downgrades, capital flow from Russian assets could accelerate fast as we suspect most traders will live by the ‘Margin Call’ maxim of “be first, be smarter, or cheat” and sell-first before asking questions (despite some potential silver lining from talk of Ukraine being willing to talk).

As Bloomberg reports, sanctioning Russia’s central bank is likely to have a dramatic effect on the country’s economy and its banking system, Elina Ribakova, deputy chief economist for the Institute of International Finance, said before the latest round of penalties was announced.

This would likely lead to massive bank runs and dollarization, with a sharp sell-off, drain on reserves — and, possibly, a full-on collapse of Russia’s financial system.

S&P Global cut Russia’s credit rating one notch to BB+ (and Moody’s said it was reviewing for a potential downgrade, which could take Russian debt into junk). Additionally Ukraine was also downgraded to CCC from B.

The economic impact of the various sanctions are significant…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Global Stocks, Futures Crash; Nasdaq In Bear Market, Oil Soars Above $105 On Russia Attack

Global Stocks, Futures Crash; Nasdaq In Bear Market, Oil Soars Above $105 On Russia Attack

U.S. stock index futures crashed along with global markets on Thursday as Russia’s assault on Ukraine sent investors fleeing risky assets, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq was set to open in a bear market. Contracts on the Nasdaq 100 were down 2.9% by 7 a.m. in New York, having dropped as much as 3.6% earlier and signaling that the underlying gauge was poised to fall 20% from its November record high for the first time since the pandemic; the S&P 500 was down 2.23% or 98 points to, 4,214, while Dow futures lost 2.3%.  The flight to safety saw the 10-year Treasury yield tumble 14 basis points to under 1.9%. Gold hit the highest since September 2020, while the dollar also spiked higher.

The Nasdaq was set to open in a bear market, with NQ futures down more than 20% from its all time highs just two months ago…

… while the VIX spiked higher, and was last just around 37, up almost 10 points on the day.

Russian forces assaulted targets across Ukraine after Putin ordered an operation aimed at demilitarizing the country. Putin said Russia doesn’t plan to “occupy” its neighbor but that action was necessary after the U.S. and its allies crossed Russia’s “red line” by expanding the NATO alliance. Military vehicles breached into the Kyiv region that borders Belarus, Ukraine’s Border Guard Service said in a statement.

Western powers condemned the military incursion and vowed to step up penalties on Russia — President Joe Biden said the U.S. and its allies will impose “severe sanctions.” European leaders are planning sanctions that will target Russian banks. The government in Kyiv called it a “full-scale invasion” as it declared martial law and called for international support including harsher sanctions on Russia.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

A 50-Percent Decline Will Only Be A Correction

A 50-Percent Decline Will Only Be A Correction

A 50-percent decline will only be a correction and not a bear market.

I know. Right now, you are thinking, how could anyone suggest a 50-percent decline in the market is NOT a bear market. Logically you are correct. However, technically, we need an essential distinction between a “correction” and a “bear market.”

In March 2020, the stock market declined a whopping 35% in a single month. It was a rapid and swift decline and, by all media accounts, was an “official” bear market. But, of course, with the massive interventions of the Federal Reserve, the reversal of that decline was equally swift. As YahooFinance pointed out at the time.

“The S&P 500 set a new record high this week for the first time since Feb. 19, surging an eye-popping 51% from its March 23 closing low of 2,237 to a closing high of 3,389 on Tuesday. This represents the shortest bear market and third fastest bear-market recovery ever.” – Sam Ro

50-percent decline, A 50-Percent Decline Will Only Be A Correction

However, as I discussed at the time, March 2020, much like the “1987 crash,” was in actuality only a correction. To understand why March was not a “bear market,” we must define the difference between an actual “bear market” and a “correction.”

50-percent decline, A 50-Percent Decline Will Only Be A Correction

Defining A Correction & A Bear Market

Start with Sentiment Trader’s insightful note following the 2020 recovery to new highs.

“This ended its shortest bear market in history. Using the completely arbitrary definition of a 20% decline from a multi-year high, it has taken the index only 110 days to cycle to a fresh high. That’s several months faster than the other fastest recoveries in 1967 and 1982.”

Note their statement that the media’s definition of a “bear market” consisting of a 20% decline is “completely arbitrary.” Given that price is nothing more than a reflection of the psychology of market participants, using the 20% definition may not be accurate any longer.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The End of Free-Lunch Economics

rajan74_STEFANI REYNOLDSAFP via Getty Images_fedSTEFANI REYNOLDSAFP via Getty Images

The End of Free-Lunch Economics

CHICAGO – Smart economic policymaking invariably requires trading off some pain today for greater future gains. But this is a difficult proposition politically, especially in democracies. It is always easier for elected leaders to indulge their constituents immediately, on the hope that the bill will not arrive while they are still in office. Moreover, those who bear the pain caused by a policy are not necessarily those who will gain from it.

That is why today’s more advanced economies created mechanisms that allow them to make hard choices when necessary. Chief among these are independent central banks and mandated limits on budget deficits. Importantly, political parties reached a consensus to establish and back these mechanisms irrespective of their own immediate political priorities. One reason why many emerging markets have swung from crisis to crisis is that they failed to achieve such consensus. But recent history shows that developed economies, too, are becoming less tolerant of pain, perhaps because their own political consensus has eroded.

Financial markets have become volatile once again, owing to fears that the US Federal Reserve will have to tighten its monetary policy significantly to control inflation. But many investors still hope that the Fed will go easy if asset prices start to fall substantially. If the Fed proves them right, it will become that much harder to normalize financial conditions in the future.

Investors’ hope that the Fed will prolong the party is not baseless. In late 1996, Fed Chair Alan Greenspan warned of financial markets’ “irrational exuberance.”…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Prepare Yourself, This is Getting Serious

Prepare Yourself, This is Getting Serious

Financial Cycle Down, War Cycle Up – Charles Nenner

Financial Cycle Down, War Cycle Up – Charles Nenner


Renowned geopolitical and financial cycle expert Charles Nenner says his cycle analysis shows the highs are in for the stock market, and it’s downhill from here—way downhill.  Nenner’s analysis show major support was breached at the beginning of 2022.  Nenner explains, “If it closes below the trend line, you better get out of the stock market, and it did.  Now, in January, it has closed much lower that all the quarterly lows.  This is not making lows on a daily chart but a quarterly chart, and that is much more important than short term. . . . I did a report about how many stocks are in an uptrend and how many stocks are in a down trend.  I think 50% is already in a bear market. There are just a few stocks that are holding up the market, like . . . Microsoft, Apple, Google.  I looked into what the earnings are . . . it was clear they are never going to sustain those prices. . . . I think 1% of the stocks are holding up 40% of the S&P.  Once they give in, the markets go down.  A lot of people have already lost a lot of money because most stocks do not perform anymore.  I think we are very close, and my target is still 5,000 (on the DOW).  It seems very farfetched, but it you just do the math. . . . The media will not help you.  They will invite you if you talk about markets going up because the companies that want to advertise with them want to sell.  So, very few companies like to talk about stocks going up and do not care if it goes up or down.  We just tell you the truth.”  Nenner says he and his clients are out of the stock market since the first of the year.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

 

Callling a Super Bubble: Front Row With Jeremy Grantham

Callling a Super Bubble: Front Row With Jeremy Grantham

Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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