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Memo from Insiders: Dear Bagholders, Thanks for Buying Our Shares at the Top

Memo from Insiders: Dear Bagholders, Thanks for Buying Our Shares at the Top

The self-sustaining recovery is a fantasy that’s evaporated.

What looks like a powerful, can’t-lose rally to newbies is recognized as distribution by old hands. In low-volume markets (as in the past few months), insiders holding large positions can’t dump all their shares at once or the price of the stock would plummet due to the thinness of the bid.

The only way to get top-dollar for one’s overvalued shares is to play distribution games: sell a little each day on the upticks, and buy back shares when they threaten to drop below the key support levels followed by trading algos.

When insiders have finished distributing their shares to naive and trusting bagholders at the top, then the price can flush lower with a velocity that shocks the complacent bagholders who saw only the inevitability of an endless rally rather than the inevitability of a collapse of bubble valuations.

Stocks are priced for a V-shaped recovery and/or $1 trillion in federal giveaways per month. Neither is possible. The V-shaped recovery hopes were based on $6 trillion in federal/Federal Reserve stimulus washing over the nation, boosting household incomes and opening spigots of cash for enterprises and local governments.

The basic idea was to give the economy a needed shot of adrenaline to get to to the point where a recovery would be self-sustaining: companies would hire back laid-off workers, people would start borrowing and over-consuming again, sales and income tax revenues would return to pre-pandemic levels, etc.

The self-sustaining recovery is a fantasy that’s evaporated. The spike in activity was all the giveaways being spent. Now that most of the free-money programs are expiring, there’s no more stimulus to spend.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

There Ain’t No Such Thing as a Free Lunch – Part 3

There Ain’t No Such Thing as a Free Lunch – Part 3

In previous articles, I examined the negative externalities of post-Keynesian measures like unlimited monetary easing. First, I explained that such policies were inflating asset prices, squeezing working and middle classes, and thus leading to a core deflationary impact on the rest of the economy (see There Ain’t No Such Thing as a Free Lunch – Part 1). Then, I wrote that too many bailouts might lead to moral hazard and zombie companies, undermining future economic growth (see There Ain’t No Such Thing as a Free Lunch – Part 2).

If such policies tend to weaken the economy, then why assets like stocks, bonds, and real estate keep on rising?

Greed is Good

As already mentioned, bonds and equity markets have been more and more driven by the “Fed put” narrative (see The Fed Put Narrative Era). Besides, households might see the drop of interest rates as a screaming buy signal in the residential real estate space. People have been taught that any correction should be regarded as a huge investment opportunity, so everyone is willing to join the party.

Fear of missing out is a powerful catalyst, especially when wages inflation is so low that all you can do is hope for significant returns on investment markets. If the Fed has our back and if Nancy Pelosi is right about “the stock market floor”, then why not taking risks?

Narratives and Fantasy

Even if people love to state that “the market is not the economy”, assets like, stocks, bonds, and property, are supposed to reflect economic values somehow. And the bad news is that GDP growth has been decreasing for decades in Western economies (see chart below).

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Is the Dollar Overvalued or Undervalued?

Is the Dollar Overvalued or Undervalued?

The latest claim running around is that the dollar is overvalued relevant to its trading partners, and it will decline as the economy recovers due to imports. You really have to wonder if these analysts are just working from home and have lost all sense of the world because they are locked down. In that forecast, they are ASSUMING that the world economy will recover as if nothing has taken place.

This is the typical analysis that simply focuses on domestic numbers and assumes that if you import more goods, then the dollar must decline. This theory is up there with thinking raising interest rates will be bearish for the economy and the stock market. Interestingly, both the economy and the stock market rallied as long as interest rates were RISING!

This is not a world that you can judge simply by looking at trade statistics. It is pure sophistry. In 2018, exports of goods and services from the United States made up about 12.22% of its gross domestic product (GDP), while US imports amounted to 15.33%. We have allocated trade according to the flag the company flies, and then you will see that the US has a trade surplus. Moreover, I assisted the Japanese on how to reduce their trade surplus buying gold in New York, taking delivery, and exporting it to London and selling it there. It does not matter what is exported; the statistics only look at dollars — not goods. This theory about trade to claim the dollar will decline is laughable.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Super Bull

Super Bull

You know where I stand: Markets have been bloated to high heaven via unlimited and unprecedented liquidity injections creating the illusion of a bull market when there is none. Yes indices such as $SPX and $NDX show incredible strength driven by a few single stocks, but as we discussed the rest of the market is far from bullish.

Equal weight keeps lagging:

while virtually all market gains are driven by a handful of stocks:

In fact the broader markets has gone nowhere since mid April:

But still the few stocks are running overall market valuations to never before seen highs:

pushing P/E levels into ever higher extremes:

Who needs earnings growth when all you need is multiple expansion?

Hard to justify valuations with traditional metrics in this environment. You know metrics such as earnings, growth, etc. So best not do it according to none other than Fed hired Blackrock:

‘BlackRock Inc.’s senior quant has bad news for the likes of Bill Gross and Cliff Asness wagering on a comeback for value stocks. In the worldview of Jeff Shen, money managers need new investing methods because there’s no way to tell if betting on ostensibly cheap companies will work again. In fact, comparing share prices to fundamentals like corporate profits or book value is essentially futile in complex markets.

To fix misfiring quant strategies, the co-chief of the $106 billion systematic active equity group has a newfangled suggestion: Investors should scour alternative data for trading signals and end their obsession with valuation metrics.”

Yea, it’s hard to justify valuations in a bubble so best just make things up. It’s different this time. Don’t you know?

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Weekly Commentary: Drone Money

Weekly Commentary: Drone Money

In particular, to maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) likely will provide forward guidance about the economic conditions it would need to see before it considers raising its overnight target rate. And it likely will clarify its plans for further securities purchases (quantitative easing). It is possible, though not certain, that the FOMC will also implement yield-curve control by targeting medium-term interest rates.” Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen, Testimony on COVID-19 and Response to Economic Crisis, July 17, 2020.

With highly speculative securities markets having fully recovered COVID losses – and Nasdaq sporting a 17% y-t-d gain – why the talk of more QE? And with 10-year yields at 0.63% and financial conditions extraordinarily loose, what’s the purpose for discussing the pegging of Treasury bond prices (aka “yield curve control”)? Aren’t the markets already conspicuously over-liquefied?

Let us suppose now that one day a helicopter flies over this community and drops an additional $1,000 in bills from the sky, which is, of course, hastily collected by members of the community. Let us suppose further that everyone is convinced that this is a unique event which will never be repeated.” Milton Friedman, “The Optimum Quantity of Money,” 1969.

It was Dr. Ben Bernanke that, in the wake of the “tech” Bubble collapse, elevated Friedman’s academic thought experiment to a revolutionary policy proposal. And in this runaway real world experiment, “often repeated” supplanted Friedman’s “will never be repeated” – and it changed everything.

The U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

JPMorgan: “Central Banks Have Created A Collective Hallucination Where Valuations Are Entirely Fabricated”

JPMorgan: “Central Banks Have Created A Collective Hallucination Where Valuations Are Entirely Fabricated”

Over a decade ago we were mocked and ridiculed for saying that the Fed was manipulating and rigging stock markets, pushing risk assets higher (either singlehandedly or via Citadel) and its only mandate was to prop up consumer confidence by preventing a stock market crash when instead all it was doing was creating a record wealth and income divide which has now morphed into “Trump”, populism the likes of which have not been seen since WWII, the BLM movement, and a country so torn apart it is unlikely it can ever be put back together again.

Fast forward to today when things are very different, and everyone from SocGen, to Rabobank, to Bank of America trashes the joke that is the Fed, and whose devastating money-printing fetish – just to keep stocks elevated – has become so conventionally accepted that the only ones who can’t see it are either idiots or those whose paycheck depends on not seeing it.

We can now add JPMorgan to the list of those who do see what was obvious to everyone back in 2009.

In an interview with  Bloomberg TV, Oksana Aronov, head of alternative fixed-income strategy tat JPMorgan Asset Management, said that central bank buying has forced rising credit valuations out of line with deteriorating fundamentals, resulting in a market where everything is broken:

European and U.S. credit investors are “locked in this collective hallucination with the central banks around valuations and what they mean and that there is a lack of desire to acknowledge the fact that market valuations are entirely fabricated – or synthetically generated – by all the central bank liquidity and do not reflect fundamentals of the securities that they represent,” Aronov said in a Friday BTV interview, adding that “Central banks continue to run the show and investors need to be really cautious here.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

This Is a Financial Extinction Event

This Is a Financial Extinction Event

The lower reaches of the financial food chain are already dying, and every entity that depended on that layer is doomed.

Though under pressure from climate change, the dinosaurs were still dominant 65 million year ago–until the meteor struck, creating a global “nuclear winter” that darkened the atmosphere for months, killing off most of the food chain that the dinosaurs depended on. (See chart below.)

The ancestors of modern birds were one of the few dinosaur species to survive the extinction event, which took months to play out.

It wasn’t the impact and shock wave that killed off dinosaurs globally–it was the “nuclear winter” that doomed them to extinction. As plants withered, the plant-eating dinosaurs expired, depriving the predator dinosaurs of their food supply.

This is a precise analogy for the global economy, which is entering a financial “nuclear winter” extinction event. As I’ve been discussing for the past few months, costs are sticky but revenues and profits are on a slippery slope.

Businesses still have all the high fixed costs of 2019 but their revenues are sliding as the “nuclear winter” weakens consumer spending, investment in new capacity, etc.

Despite all the hoopla about a potential vaccine, no vaccine can change four realities: one, consumer sentiment has shifted from confidence to caution and from spending freely to saving. This is the financial equivalent of “nuclear winter”: there is no way to return to the pre-impact environment.

Two, uncertainty cannot be dissipated, either. There are no guarantees a vaccine will be 99% effective, that it will last more than a few months, that it won’t have side-effects, etc. There are also no guarantees that consumers will resume their care-free spending ways as credit tightens, incomes decline, risks emerge and the need for savings becomes more compelling.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Weekly Commentary: Utmost Crazy

Weekly Commentary: Utmost Crazy

The Shanghai Composite surged 7.3% this week, increasing y-t-d gains to 10.9%. The CSI 300 rose 7.6%, with 2020 gains of 16.0%. China’s growth-oriented ChiNext Index’s 12.8% surge boosted year-to-date gains to 54.5%. Copper jumped 7.1% this week. Aluminum rose 4.6%, Nickel 4.0%, Zinc 8.3%, Silver 4.2%, Lead 4.2%, and Palladium 3.5%. China’s renminbi advanced 0.9% this week to a four-month high versus the less-than-king dollar.

July 9 – Bloomberg: “Like millions of amateur investors across China, Min Hang has become infatuated with the country’s surging stock market. ‘There’s no way I can lose,’ said the 36-year-old, who works at a technology startup… ‘Right now, I’m feeling invincible.’ Five years after China’s last big equity boom ended in tears, signs of euphoria among the nation’s investing masses are popping up everywhere. Turnover has soared, margin debt has risen at the fastest pace since 2015 and online trading platforms have struggled to keep up. Over the past eight days alone, Chinese stocks have added more than $1 trillion of value — far outpacing gains in every other market worldwide.”

China’s Total Aggregate Financing (TAF) expanded a much stronger-than-expected $490 billion in June, up from May’s $455 billion expansion and 30% above growth from June 2019. TAF surged a remarkable $2.976 TN during the first-half, 43% ahead of comparable 2019 (80% ahead of first-half 2018).

It’s not easy to place China’s ongoing historic Credit expansion in context. While not a perfect comparison, U.S. Total Non-Financial Debt (NFD) expanded a record $3.3 TN over the four quarters ended March 31st. In booming 2007, U.S. NFD expanded about $2.5 TN. Chinese Total Aggregate Financing has expanded almost $3.0 TN in six months.

In the face of economic contraction, TAF increased a blistering $4.39 TN, or 12.8%, over the past year. For perspective, y-o-y growth began 2020 at 10.7% – and is now expanding at the strongest pace since February 2018. Beijing is targeting TAF growth of $4.3 TN (30 TN yuan) for 2020, about 25% ahead of record 2019 growth (and up 45% from 2018 growth).

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Drumbeats of the Epocalypse: The Economic Death March Has Come to Town!

Drumbeats of the Epocalypse: The Economic Death March Has Come to Town! 

Photo of breadlines during the Great Depression

The coronavirus pandemic inflicted a “swift and massive shock” that has caused the broadest collapse of the global economy since 1870 despite unprecedented government support, the World Bank said.

“This is a deeply sobering outlook, with the crisis likely to leave long-lasting scars and pose major global challenges,” said World Bank Group Vice President for Equitable Growth, Finance and Institutions Ceyla Pazarbasioglu….

The depth of the crisis will drive 70 to 100 million people into extreme poverty.

Yahoo! News

The Depression is deep, and the pain is wide.

Yet, the NADAQ is a rocket, attempting to break out of earth’s atmosphere. As I wrote several days ago and reiterated yesterday, saying I’d follow up with greater detail today, this bubble in stocks is the most extreme euphoria ever seen. It will, however, blow when the initial burst of good news from reopening gives way to the reality of all that did not recover after reopening.

That endless lineup of headlines is arriving now.

Since COVID-19 has been rebuilding its claimed outbreaks around the nation in the news, the market has become troubled, knocking the S&P 500 and the Dow back down to that seemingly magical 61% retracement fibonacci line on the charts that really big rallies after really big crashes like to top out at. 

As I mentioned yesterday, the Nasdaq has pressed on ahead in a tear. Here is how it looks relative to the rest of the economy (GDP). See if this picture looks stable to you:

Northman Trader

And how well did that work out last time?

“Ahh,” you may say, “but this time it is only because then denominator (GDP) has crashed so hard.” 

“Nay,” I say.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Market Update: A Titanic Disaster Ahead?

Market Update: A Titanic Disaster Ahead?

Tech stocks now in a classic blow-off top

At this point, as go the leading Tech stocks, so go the markets.

So much capital has crammed into the tech sector this year that it boggles the mind. Tech stocks now make up 40% of the market cap of the S&P 500.

And despite their huge size, they continue to race higher. Nearly. Every. Single. Day.

Here’s a chart of six of the biggest tech companies. Over just the past 7 trading days, they have increased a combined total of half a trillion dollars in market cap. That’s $500 billion, folks — in just a week!

Big tech stocks gain $500 billion in past 7 trading days

(Source)

Looking at Amazon’s (AMZN) stock price, up nearly 20%(!) since the start of July, we see a trajectory that we’re familiar with — a near-vertical blow-off top:

AMZN stock chart

(Source)

This is the classic manic ending to an asset price bubble — as seen when Bitcoin hit 19,000 in late 2017 and when silver hit $49/oz in 2011. For further affirmation, watch this short video chapter from Crash Course on Bubbles.

In a way, this is comforting to see because it gives us confidence this insane, mindless, unjustified market euphoria will end soon. We just need to be prepared for the predictable violent aftermath when it does.

As we do each week, we’ve once again asked the lead partners at New Harbor Financial, Peak Prosperity’s endorsed financial advisor, to share their latest insights on the end of Great Tech Bubble and what comes next.

We spend a fair amount of time in this week’s video asking New Harbor for actionable options to protect recent gains from a potential pull-back, as well as how to position for a larger market melt-down if indeed Tech soon reverses and we experience a crash greater in magnitude than what we suffered in February:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Game Over Spending

Game Over Spending

Second quarter 2020 came and went like a California wildfire.  The economic devastation caused by the government lockdowns was swift, the destruction immense, and the damage lasting.  But, nonetheless, in Q2, the major U.S. stock market indices rallied at a record pace.

The Dow booked its best quarter in 33 years.  The S&P 500 posted its best performance since 1998.  And the NASDAQ had its biggest increase since 1999…jumping 38.85 percent in just three months.

The economy, on the other hand, was severely scorched.  Decades of debt had built up like dead wood amongst a forest understory.  Then, at the worst possible time, government lockdown orders sparked a match and set it ablaze.

The results were predictable to everyone but the experts.  Supply chain disruptions followed by retail disruptions, followed by declining sales, followed by disappearing cash flow, followed by layoffs, followed by business closures, followed by shrinking tax receipts, followed by unserviceable public and private debt, followed by mass bankruptcies, followed by riots, followed by full societal breakdown.  The economic wildfire raged through so fast most people don’t comprehend what has happened.

The interim solutions from Washington, in concert with the Federal Reserve, have been to add more fuel.  That is, the solutions have centered around mega efforts to paper over the economic depression with massive amounts of fake money.

Money Printer Go BRRR

Mass corporate bailouts were just the beginning.  Payroll Protection Program (PPP) loans were made to over 650,000 small businesses, including presidential candidate Kanye West’s clothing brand, Yeezy, and Grover Norquist’s anti-tax group, Americans for Tax Reform.

On top of that, the Fed began creating money from thin air for the purpose of buying individual corporate bonds.  As of June 28, the Fed’s bought $428 million worth of corporate bonds in 86 different companies.  These companies include Berkshire Hathaway Energy, McDonald’s, Southwest Airlines, CVS, AT&T, Boeing, Coca-Cola, Exxon Mobil, Ford, Walmart, United Health Group, Philip Morris International, and many, many more.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

TOTAL MARKET INSANITY: Toyota vs. Tesla

TOTAL MARKET INSANITY: Toyota vs. Tesla

The present market insanity reminds me of the similar mentality of Americans right before the 1929 stock market crash and the pre-1999 Tech Bubble.  However, the big difference today is that technology has destroyed the ability of investors to understand the meaning of VALUE.  The notion that technology makes the world better fails the test of time, especially when you read Joesph Tainter’s book, THE COLLAPSE OF COMPLEX SOCIETIES.

The new generation of millennials and even the baby-boomers have fallen HOOK, LINE, and SINKER for the glamour and glitter of technology.  So, if we ask most Americans about our future energy predicament, their knee-jerk reply is that “Technology will solve all of our problems.”  This is quite hilarious when, in fact, complex, sophisticated technology is a massive ENERGY BLACK HOLE.  The more technology we throw at a problem, the more energy is consumed.  

Thus, this brings me to my comparison of Toyota Motors vs. Tesla Inc.   Toyota was the largest auto manufacturer in the world in 2018 but was overtaken by Volkswagon last year.  Toyota didn’t produce any electric cars in 2019 but plans on rolling out ten new EV models in 2020.  However, if we compare the market fundamentals for Toyota and Tesla, investors have gone completely insane.

Currently, Tesla’s market cap is worth $259 billion compared to $206 billion for Toyota.  Why did investors push Tesla’s stock up to $1,400 a share ($259 billion market cap) when its total revenues in 2019 were only a little more than Toyota’s net income profits?  As you can see, Toyota posted $19 billion in net income profits on total revenues of $278 billion compared to Tesla’s $862 million net income loss on $24.3 billion in revenues.

Again, a perfect example of the investor mindset today.  Profits don’t matter, just technology, regardless if it continues to lose money.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Who Will Get Hit When Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs) Blow Up? Banks or Unsuspecting “Market Participants”?

Who Will Get Hit When Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs) Blow Up? Banks or Unsuspecting “Market Participants”?

Answers emerge from the murky business of CLOs.

There has been quite some hoopla surrounding Collateralized Loan obligations (CLOs) because the underlying leveraged loans – junk-rated loans often used by private equity firms to fund leveraged buyouts (LBO) and other high-risk endeavors such as special dividends – are now starting to come apart. There are approximately $700 billion in US-issued CLOs outstanding.

US banks hold $99 billion of these CLOs, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. The rest are held by various institutional investors, such as insurance companies, pension funds, mutual funds, hedge funds, private equity firms, and the like. They’re also held by entities overseas, including certain banks in Japan that have gorged on these US CLOs. But that’s their problem.

One third of the CLOs in the US banking system are held by just one bank: JPMorgan Chase; and 80% of the CLOs in the US banking system are held by just three banks. But at each of these three gigantic banks, CLOs account for only 1.2% to 1.3% of total assets (total asset amounts per Federal Reserve Q1 2020):

  • JPMorgan Chase: $34.0 billion in CLOs = 1.3% of its $2.69 trillion in assets.
  • Wells Fargo: $24.6 billion in CLOs = 1.2% of its $1.76 trillion in assets.
  • Citigroup: $21.4 billion in CLOs = 1.3% of its $1.63 trillion in assets.

In 11th position down the list is the second largest bank in the US, Bank of America, with just $807 million in CLOs, accounting for barely over 0% of its $2.03 trillion in assets.

In other words, the largest four banks in the US hold $81 billion of the $99 billion of CLOs in the US banking system – but given the gargantuan size of their assets, this percentage-wise small CLO exposure is the least of their problems.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Blain’s Morning Porridge – June 29 2020: What if it’s just begun?

Blain’s Morning Porridge – June 29 2020: What if it’s just begun?

What if the real pain is still to come?

“That about sums it up for me..”

There is an amusing piece on the FTs’ Alphaville listing 20 things investors should look for when trying to work out who will be the next Wirecard. You don’t need to be a financial genius to work out which company they might be talking about… It’s a basic wake-up call. In periods of economic darkness, its all-to-easy to be persuaded as to the efficacy of snake oil. If something over-promises, makes lots of noise while underdelivering, and is basically a personality cult – then it’s long-term unlikely to be a particularly successful investment.

Back in the real world…

We are nearly half-way through 2020. Although we’ve been shocked, surprised and buffeted by the Virus, and buoyed by the swift and effective intervention of Governments to support companies and mitigate job losses while Central Banks have calmed markets with the opium of QE Infinity, I can’t help wonder if the real earthquake is yet to come. 

I am still bullish about long-term recovery as we adapt to the virus and it spurs a new tech development age. But I can’t help feeling deeply uneasy about current markets and the resilience of global financial systems. 

This crisis is unlike anything I’ve experienced before. Normally a market crash is explosive event – it occurs when something in the financial sphere breaks; like confidence in housing and financial systems in 2007, or valuations in the Dot.Com crash, or faith in credit constructs like during the European Sovereign Debt crisis in the 2010s. In each of case of financial mayhem I’ve experienced since the Great Perp Crash of 1986, the initial shock and horror gradually lessens as the market discounts the shock, shrugs it off, and carries on. 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Global Trade Recovery Could Be Weakened By Multiple Disputes

Global Trade Recovery Could Be Weakened By Multiple Disputes

According to CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, world trade experienced an “unprecedented” decline in April as major economies suffered from strict lockdowns due to coronavirus. The volume of global trade in goods dropped by 12.1% MoM in April (the largest monthly contraction since records began in 2000). On a three-month moving average, the index was also down 7.2% in April (largest decline since March 2009) and should contract even more in May.

However, WTO Director‑General, Roberto Azevêdo, noted that “The fall in trade we are now seeing is historically large – in fact, it would be the steepest on record. But there is an important silver lining here: it could have been much worse.” In the details, the latest WTO report highlighted that “In light of available trade data for the second quarter, the April forecast’s pessimistic scenario, which assumed even greater health and economic costs than what had transpired, appears less likely.”

As a matter of fact, latest high frequency data suggest that the worst seems behind us (if there is no second coronavirus wave later this year) with the Baltic Dry Index recovering since late May/early June. Looking at the 20-day moving average, the index could even turn positive on a YoY basis in early July.

The ongoing normalization (reopening) in China, Eurozone, several U.S. states and Asian countries imply that both private investment and household expenditures will mechanically rebound from 3Q20 so that global trade growth will exit almost two years of recession.

Nevertheless, excluding several risks such as a second coronavirus wave, several trade disputes could slow the recovery. First of all, the long-lasting clash between U.S. and China. Despite positive comments from U.S. officials, the latest figures showed that, even if China boosts significantly its purchases of U.S. goods, it will be far from meetings U.S. demands defined in the “phase one” agreement.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Olduvai IV: Courage
In progress...

Olduvai II: Exodus
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