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July 3, 2024 Readings

July 3, 2024 Readings

2019: Peak (Western) Civilization–The Honest Sorcerer

Summer Reflections–Erik Michaels

The Long Forum June 2024 – by Shane Simonsen

Can The Law Drag Fossil Fuels Into Greener Pastures?

We Are All Joe Biden (And Malthus Was Not a Reptilian)–Ugo Bardi

The Coming US Budget Disaster Will Impoverish Americans | Mises Institute

Ongoing Propaganda From Corporate Media Outlets–Guy McPherson

Category 4 Beryl on collision course with Windward Islands

Delhi experiences historic June rainfall, resulting in severe flooding and 11 deaths, India – The Watchers

Hundreds Dying Everyday In Karachi As Pakistan Battles Brutal Summer–Independent

Tropical rains will shift northward in the coming decades – Earth.com

Alaska’s snow crab season canceled for second year in a row as population fails to rebound – CBS News

Moderate to above-moderate harmful algal bloom predicted for western Lake Erie | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

The True Catastrophe of Our Times – TomDispatch.com

Restoring Nature Is Our Only Climate Solution – resilience

I saw first-hand just how much fracking destroys the earth | Rebecca Solnit | The Guardian

How World Leaders Are Scrambling to Secure Food in The Shadows | by Eric Lee | Jun, 2024 | Medium

China deploys aircraft carrier off Philippine coast amid tensions | World News – Business Standard

You Are Materials Blind–Matt Orsagh

Third Of Nuclear-Plant Owners In Talks With Tech Firms To Power Up AI Data Centers | ZeroHedge

NATO Mulls Imposing No-Fly Zone Over Western Ukraine | ZeroHedge

Biden’s De Facto EV Mandate At Risk After Supreme Court ‘Chevron’ Ruling

Trans Mountain Oil Pipeline Off To A Solid Start

July 2, 2024 Readings

Groundwater Depletion Maps Reveal Depths of “Extreme” and “Exceptional” Mexican Drought

Saudi Arabia Breaks US Global Power?

Very Hard Times are Coming – Charles Nenner | Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog

“The Train Has Left the Station and No One Can Stop It”. Europe Will be at War with Russia. Serbia’s President A. Vucic – Global Research

Debt Brakes and Treaty Requirements About to Smash the EU – MishTalk

Brazil’s Supreme Court Is Hiring Contractors To Monitor Social Media and Track Dissenters

EU’s Mass Surveillance Faces Fierce Resistance

The Delusion of Advanced Plastic Recycling Using Pyrolysis — ProPublica

‘Gold mine’ of century-old wheat varieties could help breeders restore long lost traits | Science

David Stockman on The Ukrainian Border War Folly – International Man

Episode 61: Psychological Warfare in Pharma Marketing ft: Robert Malone

U.S. Government Historical Debt – by Lau Vegys

Ticking Time Bomb: Space Junk Is Eating Away at Earth’s Ozone Layer

Big Tech Coalition Partners With WEF, Pushes “Global Digital Safety” Standards

World Economic Forum Pushes For AI Use and Collaboration in Fighting “Misinformation”

Wellbeing: UNCONNECT – by Robert W Malone MD, MS

Big Brother on Board: UK Train Stations Use Amazon-Powered AI to Read People’s Mood

The Failure of Switzerland’s Burgenstock “War-Peace Conference”, Russia Not Invited – Global Research

The Confiscation of Reality ⋆ Brownstone Institute

The Entire System Is Crumbling! Major Red Flags Are Popping Up For Banks, Small Businesses And Retailers

The Madness of War. Another Cuban Missile Crisis? USA and France Court Global War. Rodney Atkinson – Global Research

Science Snippets: The Ability to Grow Food is Threatened by Climate Change

Red Sea Diversion Causes Congestion at World’s Busiest Port | OilPrice.com

As Inflation Rises, Prepare for Crime | SchiffGold

“Remarkably Lopsided”: NYT Bestseller Bias Laid Bare | ZeroHedge

The Smoking Gun: Who Started the War. Was it Russia or Was it US-NATO? NATO Confirms that the Ukraine “War Started in 2014” – Global Research

July 1, 2024 Readings

Common Household Cleaning Product Found To Release Trillions of Microplastic Fibers

Widespread floods in Bangladesh leave over 2 million people stranded – The Watchers

Neo-Nazi Junta’s F-16s Flying From NATO Countries – Great Way to Start WW3 – Global Research

Amazon Sparks Outrage with “Do Not Promote” Book Ban List Following Biden Admin Pressure

Russia promises retaliation against US for Ukraine strike on Crimea | Reuters

Massive sewage spill prompts beach closures along California’s Central Coast | KTLA

New tipping point discovered beneath the Antarctic ice sheet

What’s Our Disease?

Is Globalization Dead? Two Views, Brad Setser’s and Mine – MishTalk

You Can’t Taper a Ponzi Scheme – International Man

Inflation Keeps Coming in Waves, but Economist Can’t Even Get on their Surfboards

Yet Another Self-Reinforcing Feedback Loop Ensures the Irreversibility of Climate Change

The Big Squeeze: Inflation as a Cover for Profiteering

What happened to Canada? – Lean Out with Tara Henley

Escalating Israel-Hezbollah clashes threaten to spark regional war and force US into conflict with Iran

Norway starts stockpiling grain again, citing the pandemic, war and climate change | AP News

Sydney receives a year’s worth of rain in less than six months, entering one of its wettest winters – The Watchers

From Black Sea to US Midwest, extreme weather threatens crop output | Reuters

Ending Growth Won’t Save the Planet

A Conservative Wins in Toronto for the First Time in Over 30 Years – MishTalk

The Third World War Has Been Cancelled. – by Aurelien

Assange’s Plea: A Controversial End to a 14-Year Legal Struggle and the Impact on Free Speech

Weekend Reads: Big Media’s Big Mistake

The Collapse Is Coming. Will Humanity Adapt? – Nautilus

Delhi Police Deploys Water Cannons on Water Shortage Protesters, Netizens Respond – Thar Tribune

Climate Code Red: 1.5 degrees Celsius is here and now

The “EU Defense Line” Is The Latest Euphemism For The New Iron Curtain

Hurricane Beryl To Intensify Into “Extremely Dangerous Cat. 4” Storm | ZeroHedge

More Than 40% of U.S. EV Buyers Want To Go Back To Combustion Engine Cars, McKinsey Study Says

13 Nations Sign Agreement to Engineer Global Famine by Destroying Food Supply – News Addicts

June 30, 2024 Readings

St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) 2024: Marking the Rise of the Global South Century and Decline of Western Economies

Up to half a million NATO soldiers waiting to enter Ukraine

It’s the End of the World As We Know It. The American-NATO Rush Toward Nuclear War with Russia. Scott Ritter – Global Research

Our Rulers Are Literally Driving Us Crazy

Doug Casey on Insider Trading… Why Politicians Can Do it and You Can’t

You Keep Using the Term ‘Authoritarian’ ⋆ Brownstone Institute

Over 80 UK war planes deployed from Cyprus to Lebanon since 7 Oct: Report

Dam In East Texas On ‘Potential Failure Watch’ | ZeroHedge

Lithium: A Clean Energy Solution with a Dirty Secret | OilPrice.com

Iran Threatens Israel With ‘Obliterating War’ If It Attacks Lebanon | ZeroHedge

Low snow on the Himalayas threatens water security: Study

Groundwater Depletion Maps Reveal Depths of “Extreme” and “Exceptional” Mexican Drought

The Supreme Court Punts on Censorship – by Matt Taibbi

Sky’s the Limit For Our Debt and the Money Supply

It was the media, led by the Guardian, that kept Julian Assange behind bars

Are Humans Worth More Than Other Organisms?

Climate crisis sees rise in illegal water markets in the Middle East

Panama Canal agency warns water shortage “is not over”

From Assange to 9/11 to Supply Chain Failures: When Can You Believe Government Explanations?

Pyongyang Says It Will Send Troops to Ukraine Within a Month

Electing the Next Dictator: Ugly Truths You Won’t Hear from Trump or Biden – Global Research

Trade War Between Europe and China Is Creeping Closer – Global Research

US, UK and EU Preparing for War Against Russia. Reinstating the Draft – Global Research

America’s Dark Day – Scott Ritter Extra

Scale Up Nature

Big Banks Pass an Extreme Stress Test Including 10 Percent Unemployment – MishTalk

As Putin floats peace terms, US-Ukraine call for prolonged war

G3P: Global Public-Private Partnerships and the United Nations

Here’s Why These Troubling Trends Mean Mass Chaos is Likely Coming to the West…

Chaos is Spreading Everywhere! – by David Haggith

Where and Why Tornado Risk is Growing as Climate – and Communities – Change

How To Stay Cool Without Air Conditioning

Heatwaves and wildfires strike across US as tropical storm forms in gulf | Extreme weather | The Guardian

We’ve Hit Peak Denial. Here’s Why We Can’t Turn Away From Reality | Scientific American

Scientists “Puzzled and Concerned” – by Guy R McPherson

Our Propagandized Society Is Like A Sick Man Who Doesn’t Know He’s Sick

What Would Happen If This Event of 41 Years Ago Happened Today? – Global Research

 

David Stockman on The Ukrainian Border War Folly

David Stockman on The Ukrainian Border War Folly

The Ukrainian Border War Folly

Someone should tell the European ruling elites to take a long jump off a short pier. Their endless whining about the Ruuskies and Putin is just plain pathetic because—

  • It’s not justified—Russia bears no hallmarks of an expansionist imperial power.
  • The Russia-Ukraine conflict is none of western Europe’s business—since its essentially a territorial and civil war within the borders of historic Russia.
  • If EU officialdom is really concerned about the purported Russian threat why do they spend just a pittance of their GDP on defense?

Yet, here we have Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, former German defense minister and full-throated war-hawk, talking absolute nonsense:

“Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to see empires and autocracies back in Europe, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told the European Economic Congress in Katowice.

Speaking alongside Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, von der Leyen insisted that she stands for a European Union that is ready to do whatever it takes to protect Europe, and especially Ukraine.

Putin’s war is about redrawing the map of Europe, but it is also a war on our Union and on the entire global rules-based system,” she said.”

Well, that’s rubbish if there ever was such. The only time the borders of Ukraine have been redrawn at the barrel of a gun is when Lenin, Stalin and Khrushchev did it between 1922 and 1954. That’s right, this bureaucratic half-wit wants to embroil the world in WWIII in order to enforce borders drawn by a trio if history’s most blood-thirsty tyrants.

As explained below, there never was a country even remotely resembling modern Ukraine until the Soviet communists decreed its existence…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

NYT: Zelensky’s Government Crushes Press Freedoms in Ukraine

NYT: Zelensky’s Government Crushes Press Freedoms in Ukraine

Reporters and press freedom monitors say the pressure, intimidation, and restrictions imposed on the media go well beyond the country’s wartime security needs

Journalists and media groups have come under intense pressure from the Kiev regime, including spying and other forms of persecution during Ukraine’s war with Russia, according to the New York Times. Reporters have been spied on and even presented with draft notices after exposing media restrictions imposed by President Volodymyr Zelensky’s government. In addition to Zelensky calling off elections and staying in power well past the end of his term, this is more evidence that Kiev is not the democratic bastion its Western military backers claim it is.

Following Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Zelensky nationalized the country’s media, among other authoritarian measures such as banning opposition parties. According to the NYT, Ukrainian journalists mostly went along with the wartime restrictive measures, that entailed prohibiting, among other things, the publication of locations where Russian missile strikes have taken place, accounts of military casualties, and reports on Ukrainian troop movements or positions.

Self-censorship has also become common, local reporters told NYT, as journalists have been “holding back on critical coverage of the government to avoid undermining morale or to prevent reports of corruption from dissuading foreign partners from approving aid.”

In addition to whitewashing the failures of Ukraine’s war, which it is fighting as a proxy for NATO, analysts say the pressure is “aimed at crimping positive coverage of the opposition and suppressing negative coverage of the government and the military.”

Journalists working for Ukrinform, an ostensibly non-partisan state news agency, were furnished with a list from their higher-ups late last year, telling them which local elected officials and opposition figures were “undesirable” and thus should not be quoted in articles…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Is a New Cuban Missile Crisis Brewing Over Ukraine? Dangers of Nuclear War. John J. Mearsheimer

Will the U.S. be involved with negotiating with the Russians to bring peace to Ukraine, as did Kennedy in the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis?

On June 12, three Russian ships and a nuclear-powered submarine arrived in Havana, Cuba. Having crossed the Atlantic, the ships performed maneuvers designed to enhance military capability, and have remained in Cuba through June 17.

Recently, President Vladimir Putin made a threat to supply unspecified countries with weapons capable of striking Kiev’s Western allies.

The Kazan nuclear-powered submarine is capable of firing Kalibr cruise missiles, which have a range of up to 2,500 kilometers and can be equipped with nuclear warheads. Along for the ride are the Frigate Admiral Gorshkov, which is carrying new hypersonic Zircon missiles that are nuclear-capable, the Akademik Pashin refueling tanker, and Nikolay Chiker tugboat.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has portrayed Zircon as a potent weapon capable of penetrating any existing antimissile defenses by flying nine times faster than the speed of sound at a range of more than 1,000km (more than 620 miles).
While the visit to Cuba is not seen as a military threat to the U.S., and none of the vessels carry a nuclear war-head, it has brought back memories of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis involving the U.S. and Russia in Cuba.

Cuba is Russia’s most important partner in the Western Hemisphere from a geopolitical point of view, and both are critical of the U.S. sanctions imposed on each other, and the enlargement of NATO. Havana also backed Russia’s right to “self-defense” against NATO following its 2022 military operation in Ukraine.

In 1959, an uprising called the “26th of July Movement” led to the communist rule under the leadership of Fidel Castro in Cuba.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Up to Half a Million NATO Soldiers Waiting to Enter Ukraine. “Offensive Oriented”, Preparing for “A Large Confrontation”.

When Russia launched its special military operation (SMO) on February 24, 2022, it became the active part of the Kremlin’s strategic counteroffensive against crawling NATO aggression.

At the time, President Vladimir Putin made it clear that anyone foolish enough to get directly involved would be met with consequences they’ve never experienced in their entire history. And indeed, nobody dared to get into a direct confrontation with Moscow. This forced the political West to find workarounds in order to provide indirect support for its favorite Neo-Nazi puppets. However, what started out with batches of ATGMs (anti-tank guided missiles) and MANPADS (man-portable air defense systems) ended up with heavy armor and even nuclear-capable fighter jets. In other words, NATO keeps probing Russia, testing its patience and willingness not to escalate the already highly volatile situation.

And yet, in recent months, the world’s most aggressive racketeering cartel has become more brazen than ever before. Its advanced ISR (intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance) systems are being actively used for target acquisition and guidance of Western weapons delivered to the Kiev regime forces.

Luckily, through the use of its advanced SAM (surface-to-air missile) systems and world-class electronic warfare (EW), Russia is able to negate most of the advantages that the Neo-Nazi junta is getting in this way.

All this is making NATO leaders quite nervous, as they believe that Russia’s victory would have disastrous consequences for the collective West’s geopolitical standing. This is going so far that the mainstream propaganda machine is now openly advocating for NATO and Neo-Nazi junta-sponsored terrorist attacks across Russia (public schools included).

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Kiev’s Plan to Store F-16s in NATO States Raises the Risk of World War III

It can’t be ruled out that Zelensky might task one of his pilots with carrying out a mission directly from NATO territory without first stopping at a Kiev-controlled airfield in order to provoke Russia into striking the base from which it departed in self-defense.

Ukrainian Air Force head of aviation Sergey Golubtsov told US state-run Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty in an interview over the weekend that Kiev plans to store some of its F-16s in NATO states for reserve and training purposes. While this might sound like a pragmatic policy, particularly since it would deter Russia from destroying its entire fleet since President Putin recently mocked speculation about him plotting to attack NATO as “bullshit”, it actually raises the risk of World War III.

To explain, although US Air Force chief Frank Kendell claimed last summer that the F-16s are “not going to be a game-changer” for Ukraine and Golubtsov himself confirmed in his latest interview that they’re “not a panacea and we do not wear rose-colored glasses”, both downplay the nuclear dimension. President Putin brought it up earlier this spring when he noted that “F-16 aircraft can also carry nuclear weapons, and we will also have to heed this while organising our combat operations.”

The Russian leader also warned that “we would see them as legitimate targets if they operate from the airfields of third countries, no matter where they are located.” Mutual mistrust between Russia and the US is at a record low and continues falling by the week, made all the worse by Ukraine’s recent attack(s) against Russia’s early nuclear warning systems that might have been tacitly approved by America. This comes as the US is playing a dangerous game of nuclear chicken with Russia.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Cautious US Escalation Against Russia Is Developing Not Necessarily to US Advantage

The Cautious US Escalation Against Russia Is Developing Not Necessarily to US Advantage

The feebleness of the US response to a Russian incursion into Kharviv, which was to prevent further strikes on civilian targets in the border city of Belgorod, and the quick Russian counter-moves, confirms how the Collective West has no good options, even if its leaders can’t yet admit that to themselves and come up with better alternatives than punching into air or a wall, as the case may be. Obama warned that Russia would have escalatory dominance with respect to Ukraine, and we are seeing that play out now.

The short version of what follows is that the Biden Administration may have made a tiny gain against its big objective of not losing in Ukraine before the November election, since Russia may slightly delay an expected next move, of entering Sumy oblast. An advance into Sumy would further lengthen the line of contact, increase the degree of over-extension of Ukraine forces, and thus accelerate the process of attrition, which is Russia’s big goal. But even if the US policy change did produce this effect (and since none of us have Russian plans, we can’t know if any change occurred), it is coming at considerable geopolitical cost, that of Putin suggesting, and deputy chair of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev confirming, that Russia will arm third countries in conflicts with the United States.

To recap the recent state of play: earlier this week, the US described a policy change regarding the use of US weapons by Ukraine On a superficial level it seemed simply to give permission for what Ukraine had been doing already, as in using Western (here US) missiles to hit Russian territory, as in pre-the-2014-dispute Russia.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Kiev’s Plan To Store F-16s In NATO States Raises The Risk Of World War III

Kiev’s Plan To Store F-16s In NATO States Raises The Risk Of World War III

It can’t be ruled out that Zelensky might task one of his pilots with carrying out a mission directly from NATO territory without first stopping at a Kiev-controlled airfield in order to provoke Russia into striking the base from which it departed in self-defense.

Ukrainian Air Force head of aviation Sergey Golubtsov told US state-run Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty in an interview over the weekend that Kiev plans to store some of its F-16s in NATO states for reserve and training purposes. While this might sound like a pragmatic policy, particularly since it would deter Russia from destroying its entire fleet since President Putin recently mocked speculation about him plotting to attack NATO as “bullshit”, it actually raises the risk of World War III.

To explain, although US Air Force chief Frank Kendell claimed last summer that the F-16s are “not going to be a game-changer” for Ukraine and Golubtsov himself confirmed in his latest interview that they’re “not a panacea and we do not wear rose-colored glasses”, both downplay the nuclear dimension. President Putin brought it up earlier this spring when he noted that “F-16 aircraft can also carry nuclear weapons, and we will also have to heed this while organising our combat operations.”

The Russian leader also warned that “we would see them as legitimate targets if they operate from the airfields of third countries, no matter where they are located.” Mutual mistrust between Russia and the US is at a record high and continues rising by the week, made all the worse by Ukraine’s recent attack(s) against Russia’s early nuclear warning systems that might have been tacitly approved by America. This comes as the US is playing a dangerous game of nuclear chicken with Russia.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

False Flag On The Horizon? The Strange Case Of The Destroyed Russian Nuclear Radar

False Flag On The Horizon? The Strange Case Of The Destroyed Russian Nuclear Radar

If we accept the fundamental truth that Ukraine is nothing more than a proxy battleground between Russia and the west, then you might say WWIII has already begun. The powers-that-be have been content to keep the situation contained primarily to Ukraine so far, but a recent event suggests things are about to change. There’s something very strange happening on the nuclear front between NATO and Russia and I believe it might be time to consider the possibility that a false flag threat is in the works.

In the past two weeks Ukraine has taken credit for at least two separate strikes on peculiar targets – Russian “over the horizon” radar stations using drones with an impressive flight range of at least 1200 miles. Until this point, long range attacks into Russian territory have been exceedingly rare. So, why these specifics radar stations?

The Voronezh-DM stations were positioned outside the city of Orsk and the region of Krasnodar (Armavir); far away from the front lines in Ukraine. The strikes are being hailed as the furthest Ukraine has attacked into the heart of Russia, but the corporate media has ignored the wider implications of the situation.

It is likely that the drones used were of US or European origin. NATO has (until the past couple of days) enforced tight restrictions on how their weapons can be used by Ukraine. Long range drones and cruise missiles hitting targets deep in Russia invites major blowback, including the threat of a nuclear response.

That said, it’s not so much the weapons used that concerns me, it’s the specific targets that Ukraine supposedly chose.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Ukraine Confirms France Will Send Military Trainers To Its Soil

Ukraine Confirms France Will Send Military Trainers To Its Soil

Ukraine’s military says it is ‘welcoming’ French trainers in Ukraine, in new remarks which strongly suggest that for the first time France is deploying its troops to Ukraine soil. This marks the beginning of major ‘boots on the ground’ escalation in a formal, public capacity by a NATO state.

“Ukraine’s top commander said on Monday he had signed paperwork allowing French military instructors to visit Ukrainian training centers soon,” Reuters reported Monday, referencing head of the armed forces Col. Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi.

“I am pleased to welcome France’s initiative to send instructors to Ukraine to train Ukrainian servicemen,” Syrskyi said following video link talks with French defense minister Sebastien Lecornu.

French military illustrative file image

“I have already signed the documents that will enable the first French instructors to visit our training centers shortly and familiarize themselves with their infrastructure and personnel,” he followed with, strongly suggesting the plan is a done deal but may not have been initiated yet.

Syrskyi suggested that France’s commitment and being out front on the “ambitious project” to train Ukrainian forces inside the country would encourage other allies to join the initiative. This follows French President Emmanuel Macron raising the idea repeatedly over the last months of placing Western boots on the ground in Ukraine. He said nothing should be ruled out.

France’s Defence Ministry said told Reuters, “As already mentioned several times, training on Ukrainian soil is one of the projects discussed since the conference on support for Ukraine convened by the President of the Republic on February 26.” This is in reference to the date on which Macron first voiced support for such a plan before a Paris security conference involving defense representatives from around the world.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Ukraine Biolab Watchtower

Ukraine Biolab Watchtower

An attempt to triangulate something approximating truth about Ukraine and Biolabs

This was first published in March 2022. It has withstood the test of time. It is helpful to look back at the early days of the Ukrainian hot war and remember that this all started with a series of USG lies. –

“No reason to get excited”

The thief, he kindly spoke

“There are many here among us

Who feel that life is but a joke

But you and I, we’ve been through that

And this is not our fate

So let us not talk falsely now

The hour is getting late”

Buckle up. This is going to be a long one, but I think the topic deserves a deep dive.

What a mess. Are there any grownups in the house?  This is what happens in a world in which no one trusts anyone anymore, integrity is treated as an obsolete concept, both information and legacy media have become weaponized to such an extent that what passes for official reality becomes just a funhouse hall of mirrors, and the experience, intellect and maturity of those entrusted to manage these matters is just not up to the task.

Yesterday I published a substack article titled “All Along the Watchtower”, which posed the question “Would the Russian invasion of Ukraine be justified if it were for biodefense?”.

Since then, we have had a flood of new information drop:

1)    Testimony of Under Secretary of State Victoria Nuland to Senator Marco Rubio, in which she admits that Ukraine has biological research facilities.

2)    Epoch times’ report “US State Department Denies Russian Allegations of Biological Weapons in Ukraine”.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Biggest Risks of This Decade

Energy Contrarian Featured Image

Since the 2020 pandemic, many things have changed, but nothing more than geopolitics. Wars and clashes that used to be largely national have given way to more regional conflicts that threaten to upend the current world order. The Ukraine War and Israel-Iran conflicts have the potential to lead to world war.

The international arena once dominated by the United States has gradually changed into a more multipolar stage. China and India have grown in economic and military significance, and Russia and Iran have reasserted their influence. Rising world powers are increasingly challenging the over-extended leading power.

“The disintegration of the old order is visible everywhere…It is close to collapse.”

The Economist

Half of world’s nations feel that they are victims of economic and political inequality. A similar sentiment is found in the rising tide of populism—even in rich countries—because most people know that their economic situation has worsened in recent decades. At the core of both is the higher cost of energy and materials.

Figure 1 shows that oil price, inflation and interest rates rise and fall in tandem, and are considerably higher now than during the period before the Covid pandemic. The Ukraine War contributed to an energy shock that has moderated but oil prices have averaged nearly 60% higher after 2020 than they were in the six previous years. U.S. interest rates and inflation are more than three times higher.

Figure 1. U.S. inflation and oil price fell in 2023 but federal funds rate increased. Inflation was lower in Q1 2024, oil price rose and federal funds rate was marginally higher.
Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, EIA & Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.
Figure 1. U.S. inflation and oil price fell in 2023 but federal funds rate increased. Inflation was lower in Q1 2024, oil price rose and federal funds rate was marginally higher.
Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, EIA & Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

French president Emmanuel Macron observed in 2022 that these changes are probably secular.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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