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Tropical System Could Bring Heavy Rainfall To New York City

Tropical System Could Bring Heavy Rainfall To New York City

Chances are, as early as Thursday, the 2020 hurricane season could get its sixth tropical system – now forming offshore of the North Carolina Outer Banks and likely headed to New York City. 

Earlier this week, the National Hurricane Center (NWS) had a 70% probability the storm would develop into a tropical system. If that is the case, within the next 24-hours, winds would have to sustain 39 mph to become Tropical Storm Fay.

NWS Weather Note h/t NWS 

“Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development and a tropical or subtropical cyclone is likely to form within the next day or so,” NWS said. 

The system began forming over the Florida Panhandle on Monday. Several weather models suggest the storm could track up the East Coast in the coming days, eventually striking New York City. 

“We’ve been watching the center of this system move across Georgia and the Carolinas for a few days now,” CNN meteorologist Taylor Ward said. “As the center moves offshore of North Carolina and hugs the coast, it will be able to tap into the warm waters of the Gulf Stream and could become a tropical storm.”

Tropical Weather Models h/t Reuters Commodity Desk 

“Residents along the mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts should expect conditions similar to a Nor’ easter,” said Ward. “Bands of rain and gusty winds will bring the potential for coastal flooding, beach erosion and rip currents from Thursday to Saturday.”

Deep European Recession Forecast For 2020

Deep European Recession Forecast For 2020

In its Summer Forecast published today, the European Commission downgraded its own projection from earlier in the year, making for an even grimmer outlook for the EU economy in 2020. The -7.4 percent contraction originally expected has been reassessed to -8.3 percent.

Infographic: Deep European Recession Forecast for 2020 | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

In the EC press release, the following context was given:

“The EU economy will experience a deep recession this year due to the coronavirus pandemic, despite the swift and comprehensive policy response at both EU and national levels. Because the lifting of lockdown measures is proceeding at a more gradual pace than assumed in our Spring Forecast, the impact on economic activity in 2020 will be more significant than anticipated.”

And don’t expect the European banks to help, as Daniel Lacalle recently notesbanks may face a tsunami of problems as three factors collide: rise in non-performing loans, deflationary pressures from a prolonged crisis and central bank keeping negative rates that destroy banking profitability. We estimate a rise in net debt to EBITDA of the largest corporations of the Stoxx 600 soaring to 3x from the current 1.8x. This means that banks may face a wall of delinquencies and weakening solvency and liquidity in the vast majority of their assets (loans) just as deflationary pressures hit the economy, growth weakens and the central bank implements even more aggressive but futile liquidity measures and damaging rate cuts.

This combination of three problems at the same time may generate a risk of a financial crisis created by using the balance sheet of banks massively to address the bailout of every possible sector. It may undo the entire improvement in the balance sheet of the financial entities achieved slowly and painfully in the past decade and destroy it in a few months.

Weakening the balance sheet of banks and hiding larger risk at lower rates in their balance sheets may be an extremely dangerous policy in the long run. 

Heat Wave To Bake Significant Parts Of US Through Mid-July

Heat Wave To Bake Significant Parts Of US Through Mid-July  

Extreme temperatures, mostly in the mid/the high 90s, are expected for the first half of July for much of the U.S., reported The Weather Channel

These hotter-than-usual temperatures have already begun this week and will bake a significant part of the country this holiday weekend, with elevated temperatures forecasted through the midpoint of the month. 

Current weather models show a heat dome is expected for much of the country: 

A broad ridge of high pressure and a jet stream that will remain well to the north will allow heat to spread across large sections of the Plains, Midwest, Northeast, and Rockies.

This pattern will be supported by two domes of high pressure – one over the East and a second, stronger dome over the Southwest – that will cause air to sink and warm over their respective regions. The domes will also bring warmer air northward on their western and northern sides and diminish rain chances. – The Weather Channel 

North America Temperature Anomalies: 4-Week Average 

The epicenter of the heat will be centered initially around the Great Lakes area, then spread to much of the Midwest, Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast. Temperatures will be 20 degrees above average in the Upper Midwest on July 4. 

“The first half of July looks to have well-above-normal temperatures, at pretty high probabilities, beginning around the Fourth of July or slightly before,” Jon Gottschalck, chief of the Operational Prediction Branch at the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center, told NBC News

Many large metropolitan areas in the Midwest and Northeast will be +10 degrees above average through the holiday weekend – an indication that energy demand will surge. 

The most common use of degree days is for tracking energy usage – so we will examine cooling degree days (CDD) in several U.S. regions to determine a spike in energy usage is imminent. 

Midwest CDD

Central CDD

Northeast CDD

Southeast CDD

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

3,500 Mile-Long “Godzilla Dust Cloud” Will Hit US Southeast Within Hours

3,500 Mile-Long “Godzilla Dust Cloud” Will Hit US Southeast Within Hours

A giant dust cloud which has traveled 5,000 miles from North Africa is touching down on the US Southeast this weekend, and will cause a brown haze and raising respiratory health concerns amid the coronavirus pandemic, according to Reuters.

The North African dust storm is an annual occurrence – however this year it’s the most dense it’s been in more than 50 years according to meteorologists, which some have dubbed the “Godzilla dust cloud.”

This weekend it will descend on Florida, moving west into Texas and into North Carolina through Arkansas, according to the National Weather Service (NWS).

“It’s a really dry layer of air that contains these very fine dust particulates. It occurs every summer,” according to NWS meteorologist Patrick Blood. “Some of these plumes contain more particles, and right now we expecting a very large plume of dust in the Gulf Coast.”

This year, the dust is the most dense it has been in a half a century, several meteorologists told Reuters earlier this week as it crossed over the Caribbean.

The Saharan dust plume will hang over the region until the middle of next week, deteriorating the air quality in Texas, Florida and other states where the number of COVID-19 cases has recently spiked. –Reuters

“There’s emerging evidence of potential interactions between air pollution and the risk of COVID, so at this stage we are concerned,” said Boston University School of Public Health professor of environmental health, Gregory Wellenius.

Skies in affected states are expected to be hazy with reduced visibility, along with a blanketing of dust. According to meteorologists, the dry air mass that carries the dust can suppress the formation of hurricanes and tropical storms, and can produce enhanced sunrises and sunsets.

“A Staggering Number”: Over $18 Trillion In Global Stimulus In 2020, 21% Of World GDP

“A Staggering Number”: Over $18 Trillion In Global Stimulus In 2020, 21% Of World GDP

On Friday, we relayed the latest observations from BofA chief investment officer, Michael Hartnett who concluded that there is just one bull market to short – namely credit – “and the Fed won’t let you” by which he means all central banks. As the following table shows, the balance sheet of the G-6 central banks has exploded, with the Fed’s total asset expected to double in 2020 amid an avalanche of money printing.

And visually:

Of course, it’s not just central banks: as Hartnett also explained there is also the 2020 fiscal bazooka which has a way to go, with the massive fiscal stimulus unleashed post-covid taking 3 forms in 2020: spending, credit guarantees, loans & equity.

Hartnett also noted that according to BIS data, US & Australia lead spending (>10% GDP), Europe is using aggressive credit guarantees (e.g. Italy 32% GDP), while Japan/Korea are stimulating via government loans/equity injections.

But the most staggering fact was when one puts it all together.

According to BofA calculations, in addition to the record 134 rate cuts YTD, the amount of total global stimulus, both fiscal and monetary, is now a “staggering” $18.4 trillion in 2020 consisting of $10.4 trillion in fiscal stimulus and $7.9tn in monetary stimulus – for a grand total of 20.8% of global GDP, injected mostly in just the past 3 months!

And to think none of this would have been possible if officials had not collectively decided to shutdown the global economy in response to the coronavirus pandemic.

For the interested, here is a full breakdown of all the fiscal and monetary stimulus as compiled by BofA:

China’s Central Bank Vows To Expand Total Credit By 30% Of GDP In 2020

China’s Central Bank Vows To Expand Total Credit By 30% Of GDP In 2020

One of the curiosities about the current global financial crisis is that unlike the global financial crisis of 2008 when a massive credit injection by China sparked a generous reflationary wave around the world which pulled it out of a deflationary slump, this time around China has been far more modest as the following chart shows.

All that may be about to change.

Speaking in a financial forum in Shangha, China’s central bank governor Yi Gang said that China will keep liquidity ample in the second half of the year, but it should consider in advance the timely withdrawal of policy measures aimed at countering the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

“The financial support during the epidemic response period is (being) phased, we should pay attention to the hangover of the policy,” Yi said. “We should consider the timely withdrawal of policy tools in advance.”

In other words, just like the Fed, China is pretending that whatever is coming will be temporary. Which, in a world of helicopter money will never again be the case.

But more importantly, we know that in order to boost its stagnating economy, China is about to unleash a historic credit injection: Yi said that new loans are likely to hit nearly 20 trillion yuan ($2.83 trillion) this year, up from a record 16.81 trillion yuan in 2019, and total social financing could increase by more than 30 trillion yuan ($4.2 trillion), or about 30% of GDP. A similar number for the US would be about $7 trillion which is more or less what the US deficit will be over the next 12 months.

In other words, we’re going to need a much bigger chart of China’s broad credit.

Yi added that the bank’s balance sheet remains stable around 36 trillion yuan.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Central Banks Bailed Out Markets To Avoid Trillions In Pension Losses

Central Banks Bailed Out Markets To Avoid Trillions In Pension Losses

The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) recently published a report showing how pension funds in OECD countries recorded a massive loss of approximately $2.5 trillion during the stock market meltdown in February through late March. Shortly, after that, central banks intervened with monetary cannons to rescue stock markets and other financial assets to avoid pension returns from going negative. 

The spread of COVID-19 worldwide and its knock-on effects on financial markets during the first quarter of 2020 are likely to have reversed some of these gains. Early estimates suggest that pension fund assets at the end of Q1 2020 could have dropped to USD 29.8 trillion, down 8% compared to end-2019 [or about a $2.5 trillion loss]. 

The drop in pension fund assets is forecast to stem from the decline in equity markets in the first quarter of 2020. Returns, inclusive of dividends and price appreciation, were negative on the MSCI World Index in the first quarter of 2020 (-20%), and between -11% and -24% on the MSCI Index for Australia, Canada, Japan, the Netherlands, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, the United States.

An increase in the price of government bonds that pension funds own could partly offset some of the losses that pension funds experienced on equity markets in Q1 2020. Some Central Banks, such as the Federal Reserve in the United States, cut interest rates in 2020 to support the economy. The fall in interest rates may lead to an increase in the price of government bonds in the portfolios of pension funds as the yields of newly issued bonds decline. – OECD

Bloomberg’s Lisa Abramowicz pointed out in a tweet, “this report [referring to the OECD report] shows the massiveness of pension assets & points to why central banks are tethered to bailing out markets: social infrastructures depend on their not going down too much.” 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

CDC Expects 200k COVID-19 Deaths By October As Dreaded ‘Second Wave’ Arrives: Live Updates

CDC Expects 200k COVID-19 Deaths By October As Dreaded ‘Second Wave’ Arrives: Live Updates


  • Scott Gottlieb explains the problem with Texas’ response
  • Epidemiologists warn about threat of ‘second wave’
  • Mumbai hospitals overwhelmed
  • Russia cases top 500k
  • Latin America death toll tops 80k
  • US projects nearly 200k COVID deaths by October
  • LA County still seeing ~1,300 new cases a day as reopening continues

* * *

Update (0720ET): Former FDA Commissioner and perennial “Squawk Box” guest Scott Gottlieb offered some commentary about the situation in Texas, explaining that characterizing this as a ‘second wave’ might be misleading since ‘they never really got over the first’.

The fact that Texas hasn’t traced the rising case numbers, which are overwhelmingly centered in the greater Houston area, to a specific source – like a meatpacking plant or something – worries Gottlieb, because that means the contact tracers in the state have failed at their basic mission: to find the source of any ‘super-spreader’ incidents quickly before they become ‘super-duper spreaders’.

Squawk Box✔@SquawkCNBC

“It’s not a second wave, they never really got rid of the first wave,” says @ScottGottliebMD on #COVID19 outbreaks in Arizona, Texas, South Carolina and North Carolina. “The more concerning part is they haven’t been able to isolate what the source of the infection is.”

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Thanks for the comforting words, doc.

* * *

With futures pointing to a sharp drop at the open for the Dow, it appears investors are finally confronting signs of a second wave that have emerged both in the US, and around the world.

As one scientist who appeared on CNBC’s Worldwide Exchange program Thursday morning claimed, signs of a genuine second wave have emerged around the world, including in Sweden and Iran. Fortunately, we haven’t seen a sharp move higher in mortality alongside the surge in cases – but that could follow.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Texas Reports Record Jump In COVID-19 Infections As US Total Tops 2 Million: Live Updates

Texas Reports Record Jump In COVID-19 Infections As US Total Tops 2 Million: Live Updates


  • NYT says US COVID cases top 2 million
  • Texas reports another record jump in new cases
  • Arkansas to enter phase 2 next week
  • Rhode Island Gov says students will return to schools on Aug. 31
  • BBG warns 4 states show signs of second wave
  • Mumbai surpasses case total from Wuhan as Indian outbreak worsens
  • Bangladesh, Jakarta reports record jump in new cases
  • Germany expands warning on international travel to non-European countries
  • 9 states see COVID hospitalizations hit record highs
  • National guardsmen deployed in Washington DC test positive
  • AP weighs in on WHO’s latest flip-flop
  • Gottlieb warns Texas on the brink of losing control of the outbreak
  • Greater New York area continues to bend the curve

* * *

Update (1830ET): The NYT just reported that the number of coronavirus cases in the US has exceeded 2 million…Gabe Fleisher@WakeUp2Politics

News: The United States has exceeded 2 million confirmed coronavirus infections, according to the New York Times count.

Cases are rising in 21 states. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-coronavirus&region=TOP_BANNER&context=storylines_menu …

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…while the 7-day average number of new infections confirmed is rising in 21 states.

It’s another grim milestone for the US, which has far and away the largest number of confirmed infections; Brazil, with nearly 800k, is No. 2.

* * *

Update (1825ET): Barely an hour after President Trump announced plans to hold campaign rallies in four states, beginning with one in Oklahoma on Friday, as well as a rally being planned in Arizona, the state where the virus appears to be spreading at an alarming rate. And after reporting a spike in hospitalizations yesterday, Texas reported ~2,500 new COVID-19 cases on Wednesday, its biggest one-day jump since the outbreak began.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“The Largest Ever Physical Transfer Of Gold”

“The Largest Ever Physical Transfer Of Gold”

Two months ago, when the market was in a state of near-total chaos as a result of a sudden collapse in global supply chains due to the hasty coronavirus lockdowns, one market that saw unprecedented turmoil was that of physical gold.

As we pointed out in late March, due to a sudden breakdown in physical gold supply as the world’s top gold refiners, those located in the southern Swiss town of Ticino, namely Valcambi, Pamp and Argor-Heraeus, suddenly stopped producing gold, the  result was a record divergence in the price of spot gold vs gold futures contracts…

… with gold futures decoupling and trading far above spot prices.

The resulting record divergence in gold futures vs spot (in some way analogous to what happened to the price of the prompt WTI contract in April, when the May WTI contract traded as low as ($40) as traders were willing to pay buyers to store oil in a world where there was suddenly no space for the physical commodity), unleashed a flood of physical gold into the US as a record scramble by traders rushing to take advantage of this arbitrage opportunity by shipping bullion to New York sparked what Bloomberg said “may be one of the largest ever physical transfers of the metal.

“The flows into New York are unprecedented,” Allan Finn, the global commodities director at logistics and security provider Malca-Amit told Bloomberg as his company’s teams in New York have been working 24 hours a day to cope with unprecedented demand for physical gold while navigating lockdowns, flight disruptions and social distancing.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Great Depression to our Depression: Debt Deflation Doom Loop Lessons

Great Depression to our Depression: Debt Deflation Doom Loop Lessons

We are now in the crosshairs of a mega debt deflationary bankruptcy phase.

Some of our sharpest forefathers left us illustrations to better understand how this cycle operates. It helps that many both actually lived through and studied the last one fresh off it happening. No not this fiat currency bifurcated ivory tower era thinking either ( not you bailout Bernanke).


Described as the last honest Federal Reserve governor, John Exter (1910 – 2006) believed by the early 1960s that the Federal Reserve was locking itself into currency expansionism it could not stop without disastrous outcomes and blowback.

He reportedly would say that the Fed was becoming a prisoner of its own currency stock and debt-based growth (effectively painting itself into a corner). Then a trend that risked a credit expansion reaching total US debt levels far in excess of the country’s GDP (quaint times). 

His was an envisionment of a major debt crisis ahead of his life, and he believed the crisis would then turn the economy down, to levels not seen since the Great Depression. 

Exter warned the Fed would one day find itself unable to prevent a wide-scale deflationary depression.

Perhaps the man could never envision our current viral scapegoat or how this global economic shutdown would quicken into existence some of his worst economic predictions.

But by the late 1950s and early 1960s, our financial system was effectively already devolving into a debt-based, debt-driven economy. To illuminate its growing unstable structure, Exter devised an upside-down debt pyramid as this original illustration shows.

Within it, the former central banker presented the US debt pyramid and drew attention to the fact that all foreign economies also had debt pyramids too. The structures are always perched in an unstable manner which Exter believed was also true for the financial system generally.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Hong Kong Erupts: Tear Gas Deployed As Thousands Fill Streets To Oppose China’s National Security Law

Hong Kong Erupts: Tear Gas Deployed As Thousands Fill Streets To Oppose China’s National Security Law

After months of relative quiet amid the coronavirus pandemic, thousands of protesters flooded the streets of Hong Kong, defying the city’s ban on gatherings to voice their opposition to a new “national security” law proposed by Beijing which would threaten the city’s autonomy and the civil liberties of its residents.

Ray Chan✔@ray_slowbeat

May glory be to thee, #HongKong! Call us terrorists, whatever you want, after the #WuhanVirus outbreak, #China has no more credibility in the world. #HongKongProtests #NationalSecurityLaw #StandWithHongKong

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James Pomfret@jamespomfret

Hundreds of riot police charge at protest lines outside Sogo. Some protesters arrested #HongKongProtests #HongKong

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Oh boy what a shot@ohboywhatashot

Mainstream media, what is happening in #HongKong?

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The protesters, most of whom could be seen donning masks, were hit with tear gas less than an hour after the start of the demonstrations which resulted in at least 120 arrests – including 40 of which were people accused of blocking Gloucester Road. A water cannon truck was also deployed according to SCMP.LucyO@Lucy0HKer

Tear gas in causeway bay 24May #HongKong

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The first rounds of tear gas were fired around 1:30 p.m. local time outside a Causeway Bay shopping mall. 20 minutes later, the first arrest was made, according to the Epoch Times.

SCMP Hong Kong✔@SCMPHongKong

Rounds of tear gas are fired in Causeway Bay on Sunday

Video: SCMP/Phila Siu

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Via @CP24


Tank man in #HongKong today. #YouCantStopUs #StandWithHongKong

View image on Twitter

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Here Comes The Wave: Loan Defaults Hit 6 Years High

Here Comes The Wave: Loan Defaults Hit 6 Years High

Two weeks ago, when looking at the recent flurry of chapter 11 filings and a striking correlation between the unemployment rate and loan delinquencies, we said that a “biblical” wave of bankruptcies is about to flood the US economy.

It now appears that the wave is starting to coming because according to Fitch, the monthly tally of defaults in the U.S. leveraged loan market has hit a six-year high, as companies are either missing payments or filing for bankruptcy because of the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic.

According to the latest Fitch Leveraged Loan Default Index data, the total amount of defaults in this high-risk, high-yielding area of the debt markets at $12.6 billion in May so far, the highest since April 2014, bringing the leveraged loan default total for the year to date is $33.3 billion.

At the end of April, the trailing 12-month default rate jumped to 2.8%, compared to just 1.8% at the end of last year. Fitch forecast that U.S. leveraged loan defaults would reach $80 billion in 2020, surpassing the previous high of $78 billion in 2009.

While many expect the US shale sector to lead in the coming default spike, US retailers have accounted for the bulk of defaults over the past two months, as they were forced to temporarily close stores in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. For now, energy remains in 5th spot after the telecom, services, and manufacturing sectors.

Retailers Neiman Marcus Group, J.Crew and J.C. Penney all filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection this month in the United States, while Chesapeake Energy said this month it was unable to access financing and was considering a bankruptcy court restructuring of its over $9 billion debt if oil prices did not recover from the sharp fall caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Not A Deterrent, But Massive Provocation: Russia Blasts US Ambassador’s ‘Move Nukes To Poland’ Remarks

Not A Deterrent, But Massive Provocation: Russia Blasts US Ambassador’s ‘Move Nukes To Poland’ Remarks

The deeply contentious issue of US and NATO nuclear weapons right on Russia’s European doorstep of Poland is front and center once again, as the redeployment of US nuclear weapons from Germany to Poland is said to actually be on the table following an ongoing fierce debate inside Germany’s coalition government over the possible removal of US nuclear weapons from their soil.   

It started with a hugely provocative statement from Rick Grenell, the US ambassador to Germany who is also the acting director of National Intelligence, who wrote last week, “The purpose of NATO’s nuclear share is to keep non-nuclear member states involved in the planning of NATO’s deterrence policy. Germany’s participation in nuclear share ensures that its voice matters.”  He followed up with what appears a threatening ultimatum to the allied country:

“Will Germany bear this responsibility, or will it sit back and simply enjoy the economic benefits of security provided by its other allies?”

German Chancellor Angela Merkel and U.S. Ambassador Richard Grenell in Meseberg, Germany, July 6, 2018. WSJ/Reuters

Amb. Grenell’s words were posted the US Embassy in Germany’s website. On the heels of these statements came a Saturday tweet by US Ambassador to Poland Georgette Mosbacher, who went so far to boldly suggest that America’s European nuclear arsenal could be hosted in Poland

Needless to say this is about the most outlandishly hawkish take proposed in years, even by Cold War standards:

Georgette Mosbacher✔@USAmbPoland

If Germany wants to diminish nuclear capability and weaken NATO, perhaps Poland – which pays its fair share, understands the risks, and is on NATO’s eastern flank – could house the capabilities here: https://cutt.ly/SyWQERl A credible nuclear deterrent remains needed | U.S. Embassy & Consulates in GermanyBy Richard A. Grenell US Ambassador to Germany   Before the fall of the Iron Curtain, Germany sat on the front lines of a possible nuclear conflict. So Germany and its NATO Allies came together to…de.usembassy.gov

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“We Print It Digitally”: Futures, Gold Soar After Powell Vows “Lot More We Can Do”

“We Print It Digitally”: Futures, Gold Soar After Powell Vows “Lot More We Can Do”

It took Jerome Powell just two days to confirm what we said late on Friday, namely that with the Fed expected to boost QE by over $3 trillion (assuming Powell doesn’t cut rates negative), the Fed chair said that “there’s a lot more we can do” and just so everyone, including Ben Bernanke understands what the Fed does, he added “We print [money] digitally… we have the ability to create money digitally and we do that by buying Treasury Bills or bonds or other government guaranteed securities.” Of course, traders ignored the “other” part of Powell’s message, namely that the recovery would take at least until the end of 2021, or the implication that stocks first need to crash before the Fed unleashes more QE, and as a result S&P futures surged more than 2% overnight, rising above 2,920, with the last 30 points in that burst coming after news out of biotech company Moderna which reported it may be getting closer to a coronavirus vaccine.

Positive sentiment was boosted by ongoing reopenings with California’s economy is now three-quarters open after virus restrictions were eased, while Apple said it will open more than 25 U.S. stores this week, adding to almost 100 globally, and helping push Apple stock 1.5% higher.

“With the worst of the pandemic likely behind us, central bank supported equity markets are unlikely to re-test their lows,” said Seema Shah, chief strategist at Principal Global Investors. “Yet, while reopening momentum may well carry risk assets a bit higher over the near term, the tepid economic recovery and deep uncertainty over the virus outlook argue against a pivot to more risk-on positioning.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Olduvai IV: Courage
In progress...

Olduvai II: Exodus
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