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China & Buying Gold – Why?

China & Buying Gold – Why? 

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I believe you said at the WEC in 2017 that central banks will diversify and increase their gold reserves going into the currency crisis coming in 2021. China has continued to increase its gold reserves. You would please update on that development.

Thank you

PK

ANSWER: Central banks are in a very difficult position. The ECB has really put the entire world at risk. Draghi is now realizing that negative interest rates have seriously harmed the European economy and led to a major growing liquidity crisis in European banking. The euro is regarded as a time bomb for it is neither a national currency nor a stable unit of account. The failure to have consolidated the debts from the outset has simply left the euro vulnerable to separatist movements and sheer chaos.

This is what has been behind the strength in the dollar. Central banks outside Europe have been caught in this dollar vortex. They have been selling dollars and buying gold in an effort to stem the advance of the dollar. China also has a debt problem with many provinces and companies who borrowed in dollars. Here in 2019, there is $1.2 trillion in Chinese dollar borrowings that must be rolled over. There is a rising concern that this year there could be a major threat of a dollar funding crunch. The total debt issued in US dollars outside the USA approached $12 trillion at the end of 2018. That is about 50% of the US national debt. The forex risk is huge, no less the interest rate risk on top of that. The more crises we see in Europe, the greater the pressure on the dollar to rise regardless of the Fed trying to stop capital inflows by delaying raising rates.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

China’s Debt Bomb Is Back: Beijing Injects Most Ever Credit For Month Of March

China’s Debt Bomb Is Back: Beijing Injects Most Ever Credit For Month Of March

One month ago, we asked if that was it for China’s “Shanghai Accord 2.0”? Turns out the answer was a resounding “no.

As we noted at the time, one month after the PBOC injected a gargantuan 4.64 trillion yuan ($685 billion) into the economy – more than the GDP of Saudi Arabia – in the month of January in the country’s broadest credit measure, the All-System Financing Aggregate a credit injection that was so massive it even prompted the fury of China’s prime minister Li Keqiang who lashed out at the central bank for its unprecedented debt generosity in a time when China was still pretending to be on a deleveraging path, in February the PBOC again surprised China-watchers, this time to the downside, when the Chinese central bank reported that aggregate financing increased by a paltry 703 billion yuan, roughly half the expected 1.3 trillion, the lowest print in the revised series history.

However, to assuage fears that China was turning off the credit taps just one month after the release of weak February TSF, PBOC governor Yi commented in his press conference during the NPC that (although February TSF data was weak) the data should be viewed in light of strong January data. He also noted that even combined Jan-Feb data could be distorted by the Chinese New Year, and one needed to wait for March data.

Well, we got just that overnight (as reported previously) and it was a monster: just after 4am ET, the S&P futures surged above 2,900 when the PBOC reported that in March, new yuan loans jumped by 1.69 trillion, far above 1.25 trillion estimate, while total social financing in March soared higher 2.86t yuan, the highest March increase on record; smashing the 1.85 trillion yuan estimate, and more than four times the February 703BN yuan increase.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

B-52 Bombers Conduct ‘Training ‘Mission’ With Japan Over East China Sea

B-52 Bombers Conduct ‘Training ‘Mission’ With Japan Over East China Sea 

Two Boeing B-52 long-range, subsonic, jet-powered strategic bombers recently conducted an “integration training” mission with the U.S. Navy and the Japan Air Self Defense Force (JASDF) over the East China Sea. 

statement issued by the U.S. Pacific Air Force (PACAF) last month indicated that two B-52s departed from Andersen Air Force Base in Guam, linked up with McDonnell Douglas F-15 Eagles assigned to the Kadena Air Base in Japan. The mission was conducted on March 20. 

“Training missions and patrols of the contested waters are not unheard of, having become a regular exercise by American forces. The US’ use of bombers in the region has been going on for more than 10 years as part of its Continuous Bomber Presence, a mission Washington says is “in support of a free and open Indo-Pacific.”

In response to the U.S. led military exercise, the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAF) conducted an exercise of their own, on March 30, with six Xian H-6 bombers, additional reconnaissance aircraft, and fighter jets, across the Miyako Strait, a waterway which lies between Miyako Island and Okinawa Island. 

The U.S. and Japan have routinely carried out air defense training missions in the East China Sea, home to the Japanese-controlled Senkaku Islands. 

Last September, we reported that internal documents from China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) specified a military crisis was inevitable over sovereignty disputes of the Senkaku Islands. 

The U.S. has repeatedly used freedom of navigation (FON) to sail its Arleigh Burke-class destroyers in the South China Sea, near China’s militarized islands. B-52s have made regular flights near some of these highly contested areas. Beijing has blasted these missions as “provocations.” 

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Where Is The World Headed?

Where Is The World Headed?

Since 2016 the United States has been in the Russiagate box, a hoax created by the US military/security complex to prevent President Trump from normalizing relations with Russia.  Normalized relations would devalue THE RUSSIAN THREAT, an orchestration that protects the $1,000 billion annual budget of the military/security complex.  

The Democratic Party, which most certainly is not democratic, supported the hoax hoping to do Trump in for their own reasons and pulled the presstitute media into the conspiracy against Trump.

Now that all the assurances from the Establishment that Trump was a traitor to America who conspired with Russian President Putin to steal the election from the killer-bitch in order that America could serve Russian interests have been exposed as lies by the Mueller report, American attention is free to take up some other nonsensical campaign. The succession of these stupidities is destroying America’s reputation.

True, some of the most crazed of the Democrats and media whores cannot let go of Russiagate.  The presstitutes are saying that Trump would be impeached for his non-crime except the unworthy Democrats had rather go back to the business of spending other people’s money.  A crazed professor or two have declared that Mueller was part of the “Trump coverup” and that Mueller needs to be investigated.  But these claims simply underline that the United States wasted three years of its existence.

Meanwhile, other countries moved on.  The Russians, for example, discovered that Washington’s sanctions had a silver lining.  Russia became more self-sufficient economically and moved out of the box of being an exporter of raw materials to the West, a box into which the Americans and the American-brainwashed Russian economics profession had put the Russian government.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

China Sends Over 120 Troops To Venezuela In Defiance Of US Warnings

China Sends Over 120 Troops To Venezuela In Defiance Of US Warnings

It doesn’t appear last Friday’s strong warning from national security adviser John Bolton for countries “external to the Western Hemisphere” to keep their militaries out of Venezuela had the intended effect. Bolton’s and other White House statements saying “Russia has to get out” came following Russian Air Force planes landing in Caracas with about 100 troops, which the Kremlin said were there as “specialists” servicing existing defense equipment contracts. 

And now according to Al-Masdar News, citing defense analyst photographs and local reports, “more than 120 soldiers from the Chinese People’s Liberation Army arrived at Venezuela’s Margarita Island to deliver humanitarian and military supplies to the government forces.”Chinese soldiers pose with Venezuelan troops, via Al-Masdar News

The military flight appears to have touched down on Sunday, two days after a prior Chinese cargo plane delivered 65 tons of medicine and other aid to Venezuela. The Chinese troops are also there ostensibly to assist with the humanitarian mission, but it appears Beijing is also now alongside the Russians pushing back against Washington ultimatums to stay out of Venezuela, after repeatedly condemning any external coup plotting against President Nicolas Maduro. 

“We strongly caution actors external to the Western Hemisphere against deploying military assets to Venezuela, or elsewhere in the Hemisphere, with the intent of establishing or expanding military operations,” Bolton had warned in his statement.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Is the World Already Multi-Polar?

Is the World Already Multi-Polar?

A hefty case can be made that the Empire of Chaos currently has no allies; it’s essentially surrounded by an assortment of vassals, puppets and comprador 5th columnist elites professing varied degrees of – sometimes reluctant – obedience. 

The Trump administration’s foreign policy may be easily deconstructed as a crossover between The Sopranos and late-night comedy.

– Pepe Escobar, in his recent Consortium News piece: Empire of Chaos in Hybrid War Overdrive

While the U.S. empire’s existed in various states of decline for much of the 21st century, I’ve been opining on the topic with far more frequency and urgency since the election of Donald Trump. This isn’t because he’s fundamentally much different from the imperial managers (aka presidents) that came before him on foreign policy, but because his personality, style and overall boorishness serve to accelerate the pace of decline.

As many astute observers have noted, what really bothers establishment types on the “NeverTrump” right and the “Russiagate conspiracy theory” left is not so much what Trump does, but how he does it. These political cliques may disagree on many issues, but what they have in common — aside from Trump derangement syndrome — is a love affair with U.S. empire and an unwavering dedication to the maintenance of American geopolitical dominance at all costs.

Both the NeverTrump right and the Russiagate conspiracy theory left are concerned that Trump, unlike Obama, is a poor global salesman for empire. Obama had the rare quality of being able to bailout bankers and keep them out of prison, pass healthcare “reform” only an insurance company could love, and expand American wars across the globe and still be revered around much of the world and celebrated as a liberal at home. That’s the sort of person you need in charge to keep a corrupt and violent empire running smoothly.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Beijing Orders 200 Ships To Spratly Islands, Provoking Panic In Manila

Beijing Orders 200 Ships To Spratly Islands, Provoking Panic In Manila 

What appears to be Beijing’s latest military flex in the South China Sea – the contested collection of shoals and reefs that plays a crucial role in global trade and also contains vast untapped gas reserves – has reportedly set off “alarm bells” in Manila, just as the Philippines and the US were preparing to begin a round of military drills. According to Bloomberg, Philippines personnel have lodged a complaint with a joint Chinese-Flippino commission created to resolve disputes in the regionafter authorities counted a mass of 200 Chinese shipsaround the Thitu, the second-largest island in the Spratly Islands.

Thitu

With a trade deal still in limbo, military tensions in the South China Sea have intensified as the US Navy has stepped up the pace of its “freedom of navigation” operations, while Beijing has stepped up its threatening rhetoric toward Taiwan and carried out more military drills.

A Philippines official said the ships appeared to be part of China’s sea militia. Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte’s spokesman Salvador Panelo said he would meet China’s ambassador and ask for an explanation for the bolstered presence, after the Philippine Foreign Affairs Department lodged its protest with the committee.

Philippines

Per BBG:

Philippine soldiers will continue their patrols in the disputed area, military chief General Benjamin Madrigal Jr. told reporters separately, adding that Chinese fishing vessels have repeatedly been spotted near the island. He urged a panel with representatives from both nations tasked with resolving South China Sea disputes to address Chinese presence in the area.

“This is a concern not only for the military, but for other agencies as well, including the Coast Guard. We are looking for ways to address this,” Madrigal told reporters on the sidelines of opening ceremonies for annual joint military drills between the Philippines and the U.S.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Reckoning

The Reckoning

The big macro wheels are turning and everybody better pay very close attention. The Reckoning is coming. Best hope for a substantive China trade deal and a last minute save on Brexit to perhaps delay the inevitable: The Coming Recession.

This week’s full frontal capitulation by the Fed has not only removed a key buying carrot, but also has brought about the inversion of the yield curve, a classic confirming warning sign that a recession is coming. The key question of course: The when and the how. Bulls will want to hope the recession is at least another year or two away to engage participants in a final game of musical chairs before the rug gets pulled. Bears will point to structural forces and factors that suggest that a recession may come a lot sooner than anyone expects.

In this edition of the Weekly Market Brief I’ll outline some key macro risk factors and dissect some key technical developments I think everyone should be aware of.

Before I do that a quick announcement: After considering all the feedback I’ve received (thanks by the way) I’ve decided to continue to provide a video component as part of the Weekly Market Briefs whenever possible. They truly help provide context and color to the charts. If you want get notifications of the videos you can subscribe via my channel here: NT YouTube Channel.

Now onto markets:

Let’s me get something straight here: Bulls continue to be wrong on the macro and bears continue to be right.

Fact: All the glorious projections made by bulls about growth and earnings continue to get overrun by the deteriorating macro reality. The same folks that didn’t forecast the 2015/2016 earnings recession also didn’t predict the 2019 earnings recession (or the 2018 20% market drubbing for that matter) and are once again clinging to dovish central banks to bail them out.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

More Frack Quakes Rattle Alberta, Cause Deaths in China

More Frack Quakes Rattle Alberta, Cause Deaths in China

Regulator shuts down operations near Red Deer. Thousands protest in Sichuan.

Gail Atkinson
Seismic hazard expert Gail Atkinson on dangerous earthquakes triggered by fracking: ‘It is not just happening in Western Canada. It can happen anywhere.’

On Monday Albertans living around the oil-service city of Red Deer, got an early morning wake-up call – a 4.6 earthquake. 

Vesta Energy, a privately owned oil and gas company, halted its fracking operations west of the city after the company most likely triggered the quake that temporarily shut down power to nearly 5,000 residents. 

It was one of the largest recorded tremors ever to shake central Alberta.

A day later, Mar. 5, the provincial energy regulator ordered the company to suspend fracking operations and report all seismic data for the last three months. 

The order announced the regulator was suspending operations at the well site “in order to protect the public and the environment.” Among the harms fracking induced earthquakes can cause are “adverse effects to the environment, public safety and property damage and/or loss,” said the order. 

The widely felt earthquake rattled dishes, cracked walls and swayed buildings. 

“Crazy loud and very strange — feeling your house shake,” reported one citizen on social media. “What the heck just happened? Our whole house shook!!”

“Sounds like I just experienced my first earthquake in Red Deer… thought I was in a horror movie when my room started shaking in the black of night,” tweeted another resident. 

Red Deer optician Melissa Hall tweeted: “HOLY EFF… did we just have an #earthquake?? My bed just shook like it took quarters at a bad motel!”

Meanwhile residents of Sichuan province in southwest China marched and grieved after a swarm of industry-triggered earthquakes rocked that shale gas basin on February 25.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Marines Seize Pacific Island As Training For War With China

Marines Seize Pacific Island As Training For War With China

The 31st U.S. Marine Expeditionary Unit (31st MEU) seized a tiny island and airfield with special operations airmen and soldiers as part of a new island-hopping strategy.

Last week, 31st MEU, backed by the 3rd Marine Division, 3rd Marine Logistics Group and 1st Marine Aircraft Wing, members of the Air Force 353rd Special Operations Group, and Army soldiers with 1st Battalion, 1st Special Forces Group, conducted a series of simulated military exercises attacking and seizing Ie Shima Island located off the northwest coast of Okinawa Island in the East China Sea, reported Task Purpose.

The new military strategy, known as Expeditionary Advanced Base (EAB) Operations, will allow Marine units to seize, establish, and operate multiple small bases across the Pacific Ocean, a tactic that will be beneficial in a high-end fight with China.

During the exercise, special forces seized the island’s airport, 31st MEU then established a Forward Arming and Refueling Point. Marine Corps F-35B stealth fighters patrolled the island’s perimeter while C-130J Super Hercules transport aircraft delivered heavy artillery pieces.

M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems were hauled in by the transport aircraft, carried out simulated long-range precision fire missions while stealth fighter jets conducted strikes with guided munitions.

“This entire mission profile simulated the process of securing advanced footholds for follow-on forces to conduct further military operations, with rapid redeployment,” the Marines said in a statement.

Task & Purpose said the EAB exercise is an updated version of the WWII-era island-hopping strategy.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Former India Envoy To Pakistan: Massive Navy Operation A Warning To Beijing

Former India Envoy To Pakistan: Massive Navy Operation A Warning To Beijing

Former Indian government officials and military analysts have told Russian media sources that India’s large scale naval deployment, including nuclear submarines and an aircraft carrier, was fundamentally aimed at sending a message to China, not necessarily Pakistan. Indian warships on parade off the coast of Mumbai, via Reuters.

A major naval deployment exercise called TROPEX 2019 involvingsome 60 ships and an equal number of aircraft had been slated to run from January to early March, but according to reports quickly turned into a real time operational situation following the Feb. 27 crisis over Kashmir.

Notably, the games which had already been underway at the time of the crisis had involved the INS ‘Vikramaditya,’ a Russian-built aircraft carrier, and multiple other nuclear submarines essentially becoming “active” as the situation unfolded

But now Indian analysts in an interview with Russia’s RT have presented the interesting prospect that the TROPEX 2019 naval exercises-turned-“active” was “a clear signal to Beijing, rather than Islamabad.”

“China is using Pakistan as a tool to contain India, so the redeployment of an aircraft carrier, warships and nuclear-powered submarines to North Arabian Sea is a clear signal to Beijing, rather than Islamabad,” the analysts, including former Indian envoy to Pakistan Gopalaswami Parthasarathytold RT.

Parthasarathy insisted that “India does not base its defense preparedness on what Pakistan does or does not do,” however cited India’s greater concern as what China does to contain Indian influence in the Indian Ocean.”

Once India’s top envoy to its rival nuclear-armed neighbor, Parthasarathy continued, “Pakistan is an instrument used by China to contain India through supplies of weapons, missiles and even nuclear weapon designs.” And he emphasized further while significantly downplaying Islamadad as a threat: “Pakistan, by itself, does not worry us. We can more than match and manage Pakistan.”

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Recycle Crisis Sweeps Across America After China Halts Plastic Waste Imports

Recycle Crisis Sweeps Across America After China Halts Plastic Waste Imports 

The green movement of the 1970s formed the modern American recycling industry, although there is some concern today that it could be collapsing in many parts of the country, The New York Times warned.

“The sooner we accept the economic impracticality of recycling, the sooner we can make serious progress on addressing the plastic pollution problem,” said Jan Dell, an engineer who leads Last Beach Cleanup.

The report cited Philadelphia, Memphis, and Sunrise and Deltona, Florida, as metropolitan areas where the economics of recycling are not feasible anymore.

“We are in a crisis moment in the recycling movement right now,” California state treasurer Fiona Ma told the Times.

The major dilemma, per the Times, is China’s ban on imported plastic waste.

Recovered plastic shipments to China collapsed by 99.1% in 2018 versus 2017. The government halted mixed paper and post-consumer scrap plastic on Jan. 1, 2018.

“Recycling has been dysfunctional for a long time,” nonprofit Recycle Across America Executive Director Mitch Hedlund told the Times. “But not many people really noticed when China was our dumping ground.”

It seems like Americans are recycling more than they need too, blending trash with recycled items, which triggered the Chinese to ban plastic waste shipments from abroad.

With China no longer a buyer of American post-consumer plastics, recycling and waste companies are now slapping municipalities with higher service fees.

“Amid the soaring costs, cities and towns are making hard choices about whether to raise taxes, cut other municipal services or abandon an effort that took hold during the environmental movement of the 1970s,” the Times reported.

Sunrise, Florida is now burning its recycled waste and transforming it into energy.

Philadelphia has also resorted to burning its recycled waste.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Social Media, Universal Basic Income, and Cashless Society: How China’s Social Credit System Is Coming To America

Social Media, Universal Basic Income, and Cashless Society: How China’s Social Credit System Is Coming To America

Some well-informed Americans may be aware of China’s horrifying “Social Credit System” that was recently unveiled as a method of eradicating any dissent in the totalitarian state. Essentially freezing out anyone who does not conform to the state’s version of the ideal citizen, the SCS is perhaps the most frightening control system being rolled out today. That is, until you consider what is coming next.

Unbeknownst to most people, there appears to be a real attempt to create a system in which all citizens are rationed their “wages” digitally each month in place of a paycheck, including the ability to gain or lose money. This system would see any form of dissent resulting in the cut off of those credits and the ability to work, eat, or even exist in society. It would not only be the end of dissent but of any semblance of real individuality.

Here’s how the Social Credit System operates in China.

First, however, for those who are unaware of the Social Credit System as it operates in China, we should briefly describe just what has taken place there. The Social Credit System in China isn’t merely a punishment for criticizing the state as is the case in most totalitarian regimes, the SCS can bring the hammer down for even the slightest infraction such as smoking in a non-smoking zone.

One summary of the SCS can be found in Business Insider’s article by Alexandra Ma entitled “China has started ranking citizens with a creepy ‘social credit’ system — here’s what you can do wrong, and the embarrassing, demeaning ways they can punish you,” where Ma writes,

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

China’s Looming Liquidity Shortage (Or Why Endless Stimulus Isn’t Working)

China’s Looming Liquidity Shortage (Or Why Endless Stimulus Isn’t Working)

Chinese Premier Li promised yet more stimulus measures overnight from tax cuts to focused rate reductions (but, he admitted, not blanket liquidity provision).

But, after over 60 different ‘stimulus’ measures in the last few months and last night’s promises, nothing seems to be working as China’s economic data continues to tumble.

As Goldman’s Andrew Tilton (Chief Asia Economist) suggested:

There are reasons to be concerned [that easing is becoming less effective]. Local government officials who typically implement infrastructure spending and other forms of stimulus are facing conflicting pressures. The emphasis in recent years on reducing off-balance-sheet borrowing, selecting only higher-value projects, and eliminating corruption has made local officials more cautious. But at the same time, the authorities are now encouraging local officials to do more to support growth, like accelerate infrastructure projects. President Xi himself recently acknowledged the incentive problems and administrative burdens facing local officials.”

And Nomura’s Ting Lu has an explanation for why China stimulus i snot working…

Chinese easing- / stimulus- escalation being a likely requirement for any sort of “reflation” theme to work beyond a tactical trade: 

yes, more RRR cuts are coming eventually (a better way for Chinese banks to obtain liquidity vs borrowing from MLF or TMLF, bc it’s cheaper and more stable)

…but that the timing of such a cut is primarily dependent on the Chinese stock market, as the “re-bubbling” happening real-time in Chinese Equities (CSI 300 +26.8% YTD; SHCOMP +24.4%; SZCOMP +34.0%)  likely then constrains the room and pace of Beijing’s policy easing / stimulus

This “Chinese Equities rally effectively holding further RRR cuts hostage” then could become a serious “fly in the ointment” for near-term / tactical “reflation” (or bear-steepening) themes, as Q2 is on-pace to see a significant liquidity shortage.

Ting estimates the liquidity gap could reach ~ RMB 1.7T in Q2 due to the following factors:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Rabo: The World Is Banking On China (But Japan Points To Our Future)

Rabo: The World Is Banking On China (But Japan Points To Our Future)

Market comments

There is a saying in the market that if you want to see the future of monetary policy, you just have to look at Japan. Well, as expected, BoJ Governor Kuroda and his team decided to keep policy unchanged, despite a fresh downward adjustment of its economic assessment. Two out of the nine board members dissented, with one of them being very outspoken in favour of more easing, thus underlining the dovish slant. But, like in Europe, headwinds are mostly blowing from the external environment, leading to weaker exports and industrial output – according to the Bank. In essence, the Japanese economy is feeling the hurt from slower global growth as a result of Brexit, protectionism and the slowdown in China.

And apparently Japanese monetary policy makers still have some hope the economy can recover from this downdraft pretty quickly or that any ongoing weakness would be offset by a better domestic economy. But when many central banks are thinking like that, you can be sure it won’t add up! Or are we all banking on the Chinese now? Well, at least Mr. Draghi and Mr. Kuroda seem to be on the same page, with Kuroda saying this morning that “China’s stimulus is pretty big and will have an impact”.

Even more worrisome is that refraining from action whilst keeping up a brave face perhaps only highlights that the central bank has ran out of options. Despite being arguably the most aggressive central bank in terms of monetary easing since 2008, underlying inflation’s basically gone nowhere (inflation ex-food and energy being at a paltry 0.4% y/y). And while there is an increasing chorus –recently joined by finance minister Taro Aso– to lower or make more flexible the BoJ’s 2% inflation target, Mr. Kuroda confirmed this morning that this is not (yet) the way to go.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Olduvai IV: Courage
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