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Today’s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh CCI– Peak Oil, Economic Growth, and Wildlife Conservation: Envisioning An Alternative Future
Today’s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh CCI–
Peak Oil, Economic Growth, and Wildlife Conservation: Envisioning An Alternative Future
Pompeii, Italy (1992). Photo by author.
Following on the heels of my Contemplation that looked at a Peak Oil article that focused upon whether our cities would ‘collapse’ or not as a result of waning hydrocarbons (see: Website; Medium; Substack), I offer a summary and some thoughts regarding the final chapter of the book Peak Oil, Economic Growth, and Wildlife Conversation that forwards the prospects for an alternative future to a ‘collapsing’ one.
The book itself offers a variety of perspectives written by an assortment of academics and other experts on subjects that overlap with energy, economics, and ecology. Below is the Table of Contents from this monograph.
While I only read the final chapter, there seemed to be some conflicting messages within its body: a recognition of our predicaments but the proposal of ‘solutions’ that tend to prolong or exacerbate the mechanisms mostly responsible for our dilemma.
First, on the one hand the editors argue that ‘renewables’ cannot possibly support industrial civilisation, their production consists of ecologically-destructive processes, and the scale of industrial manufacturing being called for by many would result in devastating and significant detrimental environmental impacts. On the other hand, they suggest that we should pursue these technologies to help us with the impending consequences of Peak Oil and climate change.
Another example of such conflicting messaging is the argument that ‘advanced’ economies need to reduce their consumption dramatically but that material throughputs should continue in order for ‘emerging’ economies to grow theirs. This is one of the suggestions that I have heard from a number of people within the ‘environmental’ movement and have some difficulty with.
Is shifting economic growth from advanced economies to emerging ones going to dramatically reduce material throughputs and all the deleterious impacts such activity has on our planet and its ecosystems?
It seems increasingly obvious that advanced economies need to throttle back their consumption dramatically if we are to hope for a reduction in the destruction that has accompanied economic growth systems, but I am not in agreement with the suggestion that this should be shifted towards emerging economies in an attempt to bolster their growth–and consequently their dependence upon modernity’s extractive and destructive industrial systems. Given how far we seem to be into ecological overshoot and the fact that continued material throughput exacerbates that situation, attempts to grow economies anywhere is problematic (and certainly not ‘sustainable’).
In fact, in their discussion on economic growth the authors raise the unsustainability of its pursuit. So, why would we encourage it anywhere? This problematic aspect of complex societies’ chasing of perpetual growth should be obvious to anyone who appreciates the finiteness of resources within the closed system that is our planet.
Unfortunately, many do not see this impediment to continuing growth. I believe this is thanks mostly to the stories that have been created to rationalise it–particularly the tales about human ingenuity and associated technological innovation’s ability to ‘bypass’ the restrictions that the finiteness of resources creates. It is here I would recommend viewing the presentation by the late Dr. Albert Bartlett, entitled Arithmetic, Population, and Energy, that demonstrates how quickly exponential growth can overwhelm a system.
The tendency of many to deny the issues raised in their book and place their faith in technological ‘breakthroughs’ is also discussed. What I believe most of the tech-faithful don’t realise is that the vast majority of such ‘breakthroughs’ never materialise and tend to be marketing/hype to attract investment in the project being highlighted–either directly or by way of government. But ‘success’ in controlled lab settings or with small-scale trials rarely if ever can be scaled up to meet civilisational needs–if such ‘success’ is even ever realised.
Add to this that many ‘innovations’ are energy and/or resource intensive (sometimes even sinks), requiring the destructive extraction and refinement of materials to continue and/or grow. ‘Breakthroughs’ are often simply profit-seeking schemes perpetuated by snake oil salesmen with media complicity through the ‘advertising’ of them. Their hype is meant to attract investors, not ‘solve’ anything for the benefit of society.
Another of the suggestions in the chapter that I have difficulty with is looking to our political systems to steer the establishment of self-sufficient communities. This is, in my opinion, misguided; as I have written about repeatedly. Subscribing to the Conflict Theory of how our governing institutions came to be and have ‘evolved’ (as opposed to Integrationist/Structural Functionalism Theory which the elite tend to push), I hold that our political systems are not the beneficent institutions we have been led to believe and that the political class and media crow on about repeatedly.
The systems’ primary role is and has been to help the ruling caste of society control and expand the wealth-generation and -extraction systems that provide their revenue streams. They ‘kick back’ a portion of this wealth to the masses to support the narratives about them being ‘representative’ of the people and acting in their best interests, but they siphon off most of the ‘wealth’ being generated by society and extracted from Nature. They only care about the environment in their messaging, not in their actions. And they certainly take no responsibility for the consequences of these actions.
Apart from these ‘inconsistencies’, the chapter (and book) cover some of the most important issues that confront our species and planet. Perhaps the most significant aspect raised in this text is the need to protect the planet’s wildlife and the ecosystems that all species depend upon. The options for doing this ‘successfully’, I’m afraid, are few.
If humanity wishes to avoid Nature responding in ways we probably don’t want or will ‘enjoy’, it seems to me that rapid and significant degrowth is the only remaining option. Given the ‘costs’ that would be involved and who the primary societal ‘influencers’ tend to be, I am increasingly doubtful that humanity as a whole will opt for a ‘managed’ path and that Nature will have the final say in our fate.
Time, of course, will tell how this all unfolds.
Some of my personal Contemplations that discuss the above topics:
Collapse Cometh CXCV–‘Renewable’ Energy: See, Hear, and Speak No Evil, Part 1 (Website; Medium; Substack), Part 2 (Website; Medium; Substack), Part 3 (Website; Medium; Substack)
Collapse Cometh CXCII–Sorry, folks, but ‘renewables’ are NOT going to save humanity or the planet (Website; Medium; Substack)
Collapse Cometh CXCI–The Nexus of Population, Energy, Innovation, and Complexity. (Website; Medium; Substack)
Collapse Cometh CLXXXIII-Complexity and Sustainability (Website; Medium; Substack)
Collapse Cometh CLXXXII-Tech ‘Solutions’ Are Us (Website; Medium; Substack)
Collapse Cometh CLXXXI-The Politics of Dancing: The politicians are now dj’s… (Website; Medium; Substack)
Collapse Cometh CLXXI–A ‘Solution’ to Our Predicaments: More Mass-Produced, Industrial Technologies (Website; Medium; Substack)
Collapse Cometh CLXV-Rackets: Keeping the Curtains on Reality Drawn (Website; Medium; Substack)
Summary Notes
Peak Oil, Economic Growth, and Wildlife Conservation
J.E. Gates, D.L. Trauger, & B. Czech (editors)
Springer Science and Business Media (2014)
Chapter 15: Envisioning An Alternative Future (pp. 316-339)
J.E. Gates, D.L. Trauger, & B. Czech
The authors argue that the planetary limits to growth of human activity seems imminent as does the peaking of energy production and economic growth (that will impact human populations directly). On top of this, our hydrocarbon-based industrial civilisation has contributed to destabilising our planet’s climate and the loss of biodiversity and wildlife habitat
With our population continuing to grow due to demographic momentum, in spite of falling reproductive rates in most advanced economies, we must aim to reduce our material consumption within these advanced economies to help them move towards sustainability while those experiencing widespread poverty can pursue economic growth.
A Peak Oil recap is provided with the conclusion that humans have squandered their hydrocarbon reserves on all sorts of frivolous things. Oil has become indispensable and there is no other form of energy that can replace it. A mythology surrounding a new oil boom has arisen in the US but it saw its best energy reserves extracted more than 70 years ago.
Even if new reserves that are inexpensive can be discovered, it would be in the planet’ best interests to stop extracting and burning hydrocarbons since ”exponential growth of our fossil-fuel-driven economy is accelerating biodiversity loss, and potentially contributing to irreversible planetary state shifts” (p. 318)
Whether we can adapt to an elimination of hydrocarbons depends on a number of factors including the rate of decline and lifestyle changes. A number of substitutes and technologies have been proposed to aid our weaning from hydrocarbons but they cannot provide the energy density and the cost and scale necessary is extremely problematic..
While environmentalists have railed against coal and oil, they have failed to consider arguing against all forms of energy production due to the continuing environmental damage from alternatives. And politicians have embraced the ‘green’ bandwagon as a way of providing jobs and stimulating the economy (while many continue to also support hydrocarbons)–they appear more concerned about increasing energy production than what source it comes from, its costs, or the environmental impacts; their actions appear to be mostly about supporting economic growth and business as usual.
The ‘solutions’ that have been proposed to address the various hurdles are insufficient due to issues of scale and dependence upon non-renewables. In addition, the rollout of alternatives have been adding to our energy use and not resulting in a decline in hydrocarbon use.
“Many proponents of industrial-scale solar arrays and wind turbines also fail to acknowledge their detrimental impacts on wildlife species and massive alteration of wildlife habitats in many locations (southwestern deserts, forested mountain ridge-lines, prairie and sagebrush habitats); plus, these devices produce electricity, not liquid fuels that are needed” (p. 320)
Liquid fuel ‘solutions’ carry their own environmental destruction aspects, low EROEI, and have issues of scale. In fact, virtually all ’solutions’ to the predicament of Peak Oil appear to be the result of wishful thinking, delay tactics, and/or for appearance. Disentangling our societies (especially economies) from hydrocarbons is near impossible
-convincing society to pay much more for ‘renewables’ to help us is also near impossible. Hydrocarbons are likely to continue to play a role in the future despite all the negative repercussions as alternatives have not been adopted to the scale required and as a result any action in response to possible catastrophic ecosystem collapse or climate system chaos will be too late.
Peak Economic Growth and Interest On Debt
Economic Growth
All world economies are pursuing growth (usually gauged via Gross Domestic Product; based upon personal consumption, business investment, goods and services exports, and government spending). While GDP is criticised as a measure for a variety of reasons, it does seem to be a good indicator of biodiversity loss. Anathema to economic growth is a stable or declining population/workforce and/or per capita consumption. Regardless, there must exist a limit to economic growth since the materials and energy required are of finite supply, and these limits must be recognised and respected to avoid an extended contraction and/or collapse. Growth rates are not sustainable and current growth has led to a number of negative consequences (e.g., sink overloading, biodiversity loss).
Monetary System
Our credit-/debt-based monetary system is one aspect of our economic system. To maintain this system and GDP growth, new debt must grow faster than old debt (this also ensures that loan principal plus debt is paid off). A decline in the rate of growth of the energy required to sustain these systems is resulting in increasing debt defaults with wealth being transferred to the rich (currently in the US, the top 1% of wealth-holders claim 40% of the total wealth). Such inequality has negative impacts upon social stability and are also destroying our natural assets.
Peak Nature and Earth’s Biodiversity
Mass Extinctions
Based upon past species extinctions, many biologists believe we are experiencing another Mass Extinction and caused primarily by human activity. Current extinction rates are about 1000-10,000 times higher than typical rates.
Threats To Human Health and Well-Being
Extinctions are irreversible and can have profound consequences for humans. “[T]he loss of one keystone species on which numerous other species are dependent could cause a trophic cascade, resulting in the extinctions of numerous species and compromising the functioning of the entire ecosystem. Many species also provide critical ecosystem services, such as processing wastes and recycling nutrients, at no cost to us. Other species aid in the control of pest species in agriculture and forestry, reducing the use of insecticides and treatment costs to society.” (p. 325). Plant pollinators are one such keystone species.
Anthropogenic Causes Of the Sixth Mass Extinction
Most, if not all, human activity is contributing to the mass extinction occurring; for example: ecosystem destruction, overexploitation of resources, land system changes, population growth, agriculture, pollution, introduction of invasive species. Many of these activities stem from our pursuit of economic growth. “Our sheer numbers and activities have made us a force of nature that now threatens the functioning of our planet’s life-support system.” (p. 326)
Reconnecting With the Earth
Most ignore this relatively slowly unfolding tragedy given seemingly more-pressing problems. “Trying to reconcile the cognitive dissonance that occurs in our perceptions of the future, ranging from a utopian, technological paradise to something out of “Mad Max”, can cause much mental stress and discomfort.” (p. 327) It’s easier to believe that all these ‘problems’ will be solved and we can continue with our business-as-usual path.
Existence without hydrocarbons would be vastly different from today’s modern complex societies. Hydrocarbons have provided the energy to grow our industrial civilisation and the benefits of many ‘energy slaves’. Given these are finite, either we will choose to scale them back on our own terms or this will be forced upon us. It is likely that many/most will not support purposeful contraction of their use and our economies, and will tend to blame the usual suspects when this happens. Some will claim to have ‘solutions’ if given enough power, and/or technological ‘breakthroughs’ will be heralded as the answer to Peak Oil.
Moving Toward Sustainability
Any sustainability movement should attempt to address a number of issues (e.g., resource depletion, biodiversity loss, sink overloading, etc.) and biodiversity loss should be a prominent component given its importance but it has not been. Current population growth and consumption are not sustainable (i.e., being maintained without exhaustion of resources or resulting in ecological damage).
“[W]e need to adapt our entire civilization to withstand shocks and roll with the punches of Peak Oil, resource depletion, climate change, and biodiversity loss; in other words, we need to build resilience and redundancy into our human and natural systems to increase their viability, which up until now have been shaped entirely by growth in the human economy.” (pp. 328-329)
To help transition to a shrinking economy, localised self-sufficient communities should be developed with significant rethinking about the many complexities of modern society (e.g., manufacturing, banking, transportation, governance, etc.). A more sustainable economic system is needed and should be founded in ecological economics and aiming to reduce consumption. A more sustainable agricultural system is also required using methods that protect the environment, human health, and animal welfare–practices must protect biodiversity and foster healthy ecosystems first and foremost. Such systems require more intensive manual labour as they are less reliant upon hydrocarbons and their adoption would result in far more people being involved in food production
“However, meeting the needs of a growing population would require producing more food on the same amount of agricultural land—a daunting task without fossil-fuel energy, herbicides, pesticides, fertilizer, and hybrid and genetically engineered (GMO) crops!” (p. 330)
Human Impacts On Earth’s Biodiversity
Human activity impacts natural landscapes in a number of ways but especially edge effects that provide routes for invasive species and are created by such things as power transmission corridors, fencing, and roadways
-in many countries, roadways are the most pervasive form of fragmentation (in the US alone, there are over 6 million kilometres of mapped roads). The continuing proliferation of this particular activity is leading to increasing edge effect impacts, habitat isolation, and species extinction. While there is “little that can be done at this point in time to save pristine ecosystems and their biota…benign neglect by humans could make it even worse, speeding up extinction rates and causing ecosystems to collapse rather than degrade. Humans need functioning ecosystems to provide the ecological services on which our civilization depends for its continued existence.” (p. 332)
Managing the Biodiversity Crisis
There exist a number of operations actively attempting to address the biodiversity crisis but the challenge is beyond environmental; it is human attitudinal and trying to get people to understand the importance of functioning ecosystems and how they support human welfare. This need, however, is “often up against powerful, well-connected and ecologically illiterate developers and interest groups, who feel that their way is the only way, particularly if they can cloak their project around economic growth.” (p. 333) Past compromises to provide mitigation have failed with total protection now being the only viable option that must be communicated to decision-makers.
Human population growth and its associated consumption must be confronted. This is challenging at the best of times, but even more so as we experience energy and resource depletion, economic uncertainty, climate chaos, and social unrest.
Hope For the Future
The hope is to take the steps necessary to save biodiversity but so long as economic growth is pursued that is unlikely to occur. “We need to reassess our long-term vision for human civilization and decide what we must do now to move it toward a more sustainable future for the benefit of the planet and generations yet to come.” (p. 335)
Once we envision where we want to go, we can begin our work to get there. “We envisage a future society distinguished by a stable population and per capita consumption, a more equitable distribution of income and wealth, full recycling of materials, waste streams that the environment can easily absorb or reuse in productive ways, and use of alternative, non-fossil-fuel sources of energy. Populations will be much smaller and in dynamic balance with available resources. Improvements in infrastructure by governments will be made without consumption of fossil fuels or piling on more debt and interest on debt.” (p 335)
Achieving this may or may not be possible and a balance between consumption and the planet’s ability to regenerate resources will eventually occur, either by human choice or Nature’s rebalancing processes. We can do things better and that are ecologically healthier but must reign in the pursuit of wealth/status and develop resilient, sustainable systems. If we cannot do this, we will be confronted by collapse of our modern societies alongside the loss of large portions of our biodiversity.
The more detailed summary notes can be found here.
Recent articles of related interest:
Natural Ecosystems and Climate Stabilization
The Local System Builds Community, The Global System Destroys It
The Energy Transition That Isn’t
Energy limits are forcing the economy to contract
Zooplankton study reveals how rising temperatures could lead to population crashes
EROEI and Civilization’s Forced Decline
How many more species will we let disappear?
Butterfly population in US shrinking by 22% over last 20 years, study shows | US news | The Guardian
Drill Baby Drill, Imperial Trump and the Collapse of American Energy Dominance
Acres of Amazon rainforest trees cut down to build road for climate summit
The 7 Fundamental Drivers of Overshoot – by Nate Hagens
Many U.S. bird species seen as reaching population ‘tipping point’ – The Japan Times
Reality Check: Energy Transition
Saudi Aramco, IEA Chiefs Clash In Houston Over the Future of Oil
US wild bird populations continue steep decline | Climate & Capitalism
Trump Says He’s Authorizing Use of Coal for Energy Production | The Epoch Times
Why OPEC+ is Supporting a Potentially Disastrous Rise in Oil Production | OilPrice.com
The “Energy Transition” is a Pipe Dream | Jean-Baptiste Fressoz
Biodiversity loss in all species and every ecosystem linked to humans – report
What is going to be my standard WARNING/ADVICE going forward and that I have reiterated in various ways before this:
“Only time will tell how this all unfolds but there’s nothing wrong with preparing for the worst by ‘collapsing now to avoid the rush’ and pursuing self-sufficiency. By this I mean removing as many dependencies on the Matrix as is possible and making do, locally. And if one can do this without negative impacts upon our fragile ecosystems or do so while creating more resilient ecosystems, all the better.
Building community (maybe even just household) resilience to as high a level as possible seems prudent given the uncertainties of an unpredictable future. There’s no guarantee it will ensure ‘recovery’ after a significant societal stressor/shock but it should increase the probability of it and that, perhaps, is all we can ‘hope’ for from its pursuit.”
If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).
Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running).
If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing.
Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99
Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps…
https://paypal.me/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US
If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.
You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.
AND
Released September 30, 2024
It Bears Repeating: Best Of…Volume 2
A compilation of writers focused on the nexus of limits to growth, energy, and ecological overshoot.
With a Foreword by Erik Michaels and Afterword by Dr. Guy McPherson, authors include: Dr. Peter A Victor, George Tsakraklides, Charles Hugh Smith, Dr. Tony Povilitis, Jordan Perry, Matt Orsagh, Justin McAffee, Jack Lowe, The Honest Sorcerer, Fast Eddy, Will Falk, Dr. Ugo Bardi, and Steve Bull.
The document is not a guided narrative towards a singular or overarching message; except, perhaps, that we are in a predicament of our own making with a far more chaotic future ahead of us than most imagine–and most certainly than what mainstream media/politics would have us believe.
Click here to access the document as a PDF file, free to download.
The Bulletin: March 13-19, 2025
The Bulletin: March 13-19, 2025
The Great Gas Pipeline Caper of 2025 – by Terry Cowan
BlackRock CEO Says American ‘Practicalism’ Can ‘Make Energy Great’ | The Epoch Times
Some Psychology for Responding To a World in Chaos
Can We Feed Ourselves Just out of Our Vegetable Gardens?
The Lost Art of Grieving: Grief as Ritual, Resistance, and Resilience
Welcome to the Era of Energy Realism – by Roger Pielke Jr.
We Have Even Less Time than We Thought to Get Ready for Collapse
Canada’s critical minerals and why Trump wants them
What about installing solar arrays on farms? Isn’t that a good use of land?
Acres of Amazon rainforest trees cut down to build road for climate summit
When Dissent Becomes a Crime: The War on Political Speech Begins – Global Research
Power and Control- The Vast Censorship Enterprise
The 2027 American War with Canada — A Soldier’s Perspective
The Ponzi Is Crumbling – by Lau Vegys
Mind-Boggling: Microplastics are Blotting Out Photosynthesis
The 7 Fundamental Drivers of Overshoot – by Nate Hagens
The twilight of American hegemony – Collapse Life
You’ve Got a Blackout in Pennsylvania | RealClearWire
Doug Casey on Fort Knox, Government Secrecy, and the True Role of Gold
9 Takeaways from the JP Morgan Chase Energy Study You Won’t Want to Miss
Many U.S. bird species seen as reaching population ‘tipping point’ – The Japan Times
Europe Faces Late-Winter Test to Its Energy System Resilience | OilPrice.com
The Global Reset: Energy, Geopolitics, and Market Upheaval | Art Berman
Throwing the Monkey Wrench Into the System
A Civilisation Built on Conflict and Supremacy – George Tsakraklides
Alexa’s Privacy Backtrack: Amazon Pushes All Voice Data to the Cloud
Degrowth: Sanity in Spiraling Chaos – by Geoffrey Deihl
Saudi Aramco, IEA Chiefs Clash In Houston Over the Future of Oil
US wild bird populations continue steep decline | Climate & Capitalism
Jeff Currie’s “New Joule Order”—A Compelling but Flawed Energy Framework | Art Berman
The Ball Comes to Rest | Do the Math
Trump Says He’s Authorizing Use of Coal for Energy Production | The Epoch Times
Is 100 Years Of Cheap Food Coming To An End?
Shut Up About Trump, It’s Not Resistance
Trump Positions US Military For Imminent War With Iran
If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).
Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running).
If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing.
Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99
Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps…
https://paypal.me/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US
If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.
You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.
Today’s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh CC–‘Olduvai’: What’s It All About?
Today’s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh CC–‘Olduvai’: What’s It All About?
Permit me some self-indulgence by way of sharing what my writing is all about for this my 200th Contemplation. This is especially intended for those relatively new to my writing but might also provide some ‘insights’ for those who have been following me for some time.
“Sometime in late 2010 I rented the documentary Collapse and my view of the world changed almost overnight.”
This is how I lead off the ‘About’ section on my personal website that I posted online more than a dozen years ago. It’s been one hell of a rollercoaster ride since that ‘fateful’ videotape viewing which subsequently altered my perspective on almost everything.
That ‘Star Trek’ future I believed our species and planet were headed towards began to fade rather quickly from my vision. I subsequently travelled through the various stages of grief as my view took on a new, far more uncertain and far less ‘utopian’ perspective.
I have tried to raise awareness with my family and close friends of the impending consequences for and the increasing fragility of our society’s complexities–not with much success, I might add; most prefer to hold onto the comforting narratives of modernity lasting forever and a day. Nowadays, I only discuss the topic within my personal social circle if someone else initiates some concerns.
I believe I have finally reached the stage of acceptance with the realisation that there’s little that our species can do to avoid the negative impacts of pursuing infinite growth on a finite planet (and has resulted in ecological overshoot)–a pursuit that seems to have started off unintentionally and innocently enough, but has become the dominant ‘force’ driving planetary ‘events’ for some time now. Even if humanity were to stop our ecologically-destructive behaviours immediately, the momentum that’s been initiated will ensure some of the worst consequences will still arrive regardless of efforts by our species.
My fall down the rabbit’s hole of Peak Oil and Ecological Overshoot have resulted in this journey of putting ‘pen to paper’ to express my thoughts. It began as a cathartic exercise with a few chapter drafts of a fictional sojourn by a number of Canadians caught up within and by the repercussions of a failing world. A ‘project’ I initiated due to my long-lived enjoyment of writing and wanting to express my thinking about my reading and ‘research’, even if it was just going to be for my personal use. This eventually transformed into the self-publication of a novel trilogy and the periodic online Contemplations I’ve posted for the last couple of years based on my ‘learnings’.
My view on things continues to morph and ‘muddy’ (there’s a reason for the saying ‘the more I learn, the more I realise how much I don’t know’). What began as a belief that we could ‘science-our-way-out-of’ the various predicaments we face–especially via our ingenuity and technology–is no longer where I find myself; in fact, far from it. Complexity of the universe and our species’ cognition (particularly its rationalising nature) has me currently questioning almost everything, but especially the dominant ‘stories’ that are told and are meant to help us comprehend (very poorly) the world and continue to pursue ‘business-as-usual’.
Whether my present beliefs are an accurate reflection of our exceedingly complex world is yet to be determined, I suppose–especially given all the psychological mechanisms, cognitive distortions, and machinations by others that influence my (and everyone’s) perceptions.
Regardless, below you will find what one of the Large Language Model ‘Artificial Intelligence’ programmes states my writings are all about. These summaries can serve as an introduction and/or detailing of my writing and its orientation for those relatively new to my work which–if the number of subscribers to my various platforms are accurate, and they’re not picking up too many ‘fake’ profiles–has been increasing nicely over the past year or two.
Before I share these, however, I’d like to take a moment to thank all the people that have purchased close to 700 copies of my novels over the years. I’d love it to be millions more with a television series or major motion picture in the works but, hey, I had a tongue-in-cheek goal of selling 423 copies when I set out self-publishing my initial novel (1 more copy than John Cusack’s character in the movie 2012) and reached that a couple of years ago so all is good. Dwindling sales don’t come close to covering the fees to keep the first novel in print and/or the ever-increasing website/internet fees; however, this was always more of a self-indulgent hobby so, again, all is good. I will, hopefully, continue to keep doing this enjoyable ‘obsession’ for some time.
As well, I’d like to thank Ron E. who a couple of weeks ago (completely unsolicited) asked how he could financially support my work beyond purchasing the trilogy and motivated me to add the option to ‘Buy Me A Coffee’. A special thank you to Ron and, of course, to the close to 800 ‘followers’ that have signed up to check in on my writing from time to time; I hope you find the writing informative and thought-provoking.
And, finally, a big thank you to the other writers/thinkers with whom I’ve had the pleasure to interact with in a variety of ways. From social media conversations to co-operative writing projects and to personal text messages; your feedback and thoughts are greatly appreciated–even if we don’t always see eye-to-eye.
Without further ado, I offer the following ‘AI’ summaries in chronological order of my writing. First off is my ‘fictional’ novel, Olduvai, penned mostly in 2012 but had its roots in 2011 after a year of reading all I could in an attempt to better understand the late Michael Ruppert’s claims made in the documentary featuring him, Collapse, mentioned above.
Second, is my website that was prompted by the company I self-published my novel through (see here) who suggested that I create an online presence to help market the book.
Finally, a summary of my Today’s Contemplations (Website; Medium; Substack) that I have been writing for the past couple of years.
I believe the summaries have captured relatively well the essence of my work. I leave it to those familiar with it to agree or disagree. For those relatively new to my work, you can check out a ‘mostly’ updated list of my ‘publications’ here.
Olduvai Novel
Steve Bull’s novel ‘Olduvai’ is a post-apocalyptic thriller that explores themes of societal collapse, survival, and the fragility of modern civilization. The story is set in a dystopian future where humanity faces a catastrophic breakdown of infrastructure and resources, often referred to as the ‘Olduvai theory’ or ‘Olduvai Gorge theory’. This theory, popularized by Richard C. Duncan, suggests that industrial civilization will have a lifespan of approximately 100 years, after which society will revert to a pre-industrial state.
In the novel, the Olduvai theory serves as the backdrop for a gripping tale of survival as the world descends into chaos. The characters must navigate a collapsing society, dwindling energy supplies, and the breakdown of social order. The story often focuses on the struggles of individuals and groups as they attempt to adapt to a world where technology and modern conveniences are no longer available, and survival depends on resourcefulness, resilience, and often brutal decision-making.
Bull’s ‘Olduvai’ is a dark and thought-provoking exploration of humanity’s vulnerability and the potential consequences of over-reliance on finite resources. It appeals to fans of post-apocalyptic fiction and those interested in speculative scenarios about the future of civilization.
Olduvai Website
Steve Bull’s website, olduvai.ca, serves as a platform for his writings and reflections on topics related to societal collapse, resource depletion, sustainability, and the challenges facing modern civilization. The site is heavily influenced by the ‘Olduvai theory’, a concept popularized by Richard C. Duncan, which suggests that industrial civilization has a limited lifespan and will eventually revert to a pre-industrial state due to the depletion of finite resources, particularly fossil fuels.
Key features of olduvai.ca include:
- Essays and Articles: Steve Bull shares his contemplations on issues such as energy depletion, economic instability, environmental degradation, and the potential for societal collapse. These writings often critique the unsustainable practices of modern society and explore possible futures.
- Olduvai Theory: The website provides an in-depth exploration of the Olduvai theory, explaining its implications for humanity and how it might play out in the coming decades.
- Sustainability and Resilience: Bull discusses strategies for adapting to a post-collapse world, emphasizing self-sufficiency, local solutions, and the importance of community resilience.
- Critiques of Modern Society: The site often critiques the over-reliance on technology, globalization, and economic growth, arguing that these systems are inherently fragile and unsustainable.
- Personal Reflections: Bull shares his personal thoughts and experiences, offering a candid and often sobering perspective on the state of the world and humanity’s future.
Overall, olduvai.ca is a thought-provoking resource for those interested in peak oil, sustainability, and the potential collapse of industrial civilization. It encourages readers to think critically about the trajectory of modern society and to consider alternative ways of living that are more aligned with the planet’s limits.
Today’s Contemplation
Steve Bull’s ‘Today’s Contemplation’ is a series of essays or reflections that delve into themes related to societal collapse, resource depletion, and the challenges facing modern civilization. Drawing inspiration from the ‘Olduvai theory’—a concept popularized by Richard C. Duncan, which posits that industrial civilization has a limited lifespan and will eventually revert to a pre-industrial state—Bull’s writings often explore the fragility of our current way of life.
In ‘Today’s Contemplation’, Bull discusses topics such as:
- ‘Energy Depletion’: The reliance on finite fossil fuels and the potential consequences of dwindling energy resources.
- ‘Economic Instability’: The vulnerabilities of global economic systems and the potential for collapse as resources become scarcer.
- ‘Environmental Degradation’: The impact of human activity on the planet, including climate change, deforestation, and pollution.
- ‘Societal Collapse’: The possibility of a breakdown in social order, infrastructure, and governance as resources become increasingly strained.
- ‘Human Resilience’: Reflections on how individuals and communities might adapt to a post-collapse world, emphasizing self-sufficiency and local solutions.
Bull’s work is often critical of the unsustainable trajectory of modern society and serves as a warning about the potential consequences of ignoring the limits of growth and resource consumption. His contemplations are thought-provoking and appeal to readers interested in sustainability, peak oil, and the broader implications of humanity’s impact on the planet.
What is going to be my standard WARNING/ADVICE going forward and that I have reiterated in various ways before this:
“Only time will tell how this all unfolds but there’s nothing wrong with preparing for the worst by ‘collapsing now to avoid the rush’ and pursuing self-sufficiency. By this I mean removing as many dependencies on the Matrix as is possible and making do, locally. And if one can do this without negative impacts upon our fragile ecosystems or do so while creating more resilient ecosystems, all the better.
Building community (maybe even just household) resilience to as high a level as possible seems prudent given the uncertainties of an unpredictable future. There’s no guarantee it will ensure ‘recovery’ after a significant societal stressor/shock but it should increase the probability of it and that, perhaps, is all we can ‘hope’ for from its pursuit.”
If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).
Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running).
If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing.
Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99
Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps…
https://paypal.me/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US
If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.
You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.
AND
Released September 30, 2024
It Bears Repeating: Best Of…Volume 2
A compilation of writers focused on the nexus of limits to growth, energy, and ecological overshoot.
With a Foreword by Erik Michaels and Afterword by Dr. Guy McPherson, authors include: Dr. Peter A Victor, George Tsakraklides, Charles Hugh Smith, Dr. Tony Povilitis, Jordan Perry, Matt Orsagh, Justin McAffee, Jack Lowe, The Honest Sorcerer, Fast Eddy, Will Falk, Dr. Ugo Bardi, and Steve Bull.
The document is not a guided narrative towards a singular or overarching message; except, perhaps, that we are in a predicament of our own making with a far more chaotic future ahead of us than most imagine–and most certainly than what mainstream media/politics would have us believe.
Click here to access the document as a PDF file, free to download.
Today’s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh CXCIX– Imperial Longevity, ‘Collapse’ Causes, and Resource Finiteness
I thought I would try something a little different in this Contemplation as I work on reading and summarising a chapter from a monograph–Peak Oil, Economic Growth, and Wildlife Conservation. Today’s Contemplation is a Large Language Model Artificial Intelligence-generated summary of three specific questions pertaining to the longevity of ‘empires’, what causes complex societies to ‘collapse’, and what role resource finiteness would play in the longevity of a complex society.
My limited understanding of these computer programmes is that they are exposed to vast datasets of information and then collate this in a summary directed at the query posed. Based upon my personal reading and understanding of the topics I inquired about, the summarised answers below provide a very good synopsis and great starting point for anyone interested in exploring them.
As an aside, I have to wonder how influencing mainstream narratives (something our ruling elite are very good at via numerous avenues) impacts the datasets such programmes depend upon, leading to less-than-accurate summaries/answers to many questions and especially in the sociopolitical and socioeconomic realms–the two areas I would argue that the elite are most interested in ‘managing’ beliefs/perceptions about. But even within areas where the ruling elite may have little skin-in-the-game, and depending upon the prevalent paradigm of the moment, AI-generated responses can simply result in further echoing of the ideas/worldview that are dominant without much critical or outside-the-box thinking involved.
As an example of this is the answer provided to the final question where the impact of finite resources on the longevity of a complex society is proposed to be addressed via increased technological innovation–especially the adoption of ‘renewable’ energy products, given the recognition that our societies are heavily dependent upon hydrocarbons. As I and a few others argue, an increase in mass-produced, complex industrial technologies exacerbates the predicaments we face and are not in any way a ‘solution’. The mainstream zeitgeist, however, is and will probably continue to be that human ingenuity and our technological prowess can address and solve anything that comes our way. There is, after all, a lot of wealth to be made through the pursuit of these technologies and attempting to sustain the unsustainable so it’s important to get that story out and about–repeatedly–and accepted without much in the way of questioning or critical thought.
Our world ‘leaders’ are, if nothing else, fairly consistent in their machinations to ensure they continue to draw revenue streams through whatever means they can control, expand, and/or leverage. And the majority of people outside of the ruling class would prefer to continue and/or improve upon our business-as-usual trajectory rather than think about a less-than-appealing alternative. In fact, my personal experience suggests that the overwhelming majority of people don’t even think about these issues to any degree. But, yeah, let’s put all our eggs in the basket of ecologically-destructive, mass-produced industrial technologies that humanity is so fantastic at spitting out and slap ourselves on the back for our brilliance–Wise Human indeed!
Anyways, without further ado here are the responses I received on my three questions.
How long do empires tend to last?
The lifespan of empires can vary widely depending on numerous factors, including their political structure, economic stability, military power, cultural cohesion, and external pressures. Historically, empires have lasted anywhere from a few decades to several centuries. Here are some examples:
1. Short-lived Empires:
– The Mongol Empire (1206–1368): Lasted about 162 years at its peak, though its fragmentation began earlier.
– The First French Empire (1804–1814/1815): Lasted about 10 years under Napoleon Bonaparte.
2. Medium-lived Empires:
– The Aztec Empire (1428–1521): Lasted about 93 years before falling to Spanish conquistadors.
– The Ottoman Empire (1299–1922): Lasted about 623 years, though its peak power declined significantly after the 17th century.
3. Long-lived Empires:
– The Roman Empire (27 BCE–476 CE in the West, and until 1453 CE in the East): The Western Roman Empire lasted about 500 years, while the Eastern Roman (Byzantine) Empire endured for nearly 1,500 years.
– The Chinese Empires (various dynasties): Some, like the Han Dynasty (206 BCE–220 CE) or the Tang Dynasty (618–907 CE), lasted for centuries, with periods of fragmentation in between.
4. Factors Influencing Longevity:
– Strong Institutions: Empires with stable governance, legal systems, and administrative efficiency tend to last longer.
– Economic Prosperity: Wealth and trade networks can sustain an empire through challenges.
– Military Power: The ability to defend against external threats and maintain internal order is crucial.
– Cultural Cohesion: Shared identity, religion, or ideology can help unify diverse populations.
– Adaptability: Empires that adapt to changing circumstances (e.g., technological advancements, shifting trade routes) are more likely to endure.
On average, empires tend to last between 200 and 300 years, though this is a rough estimate. Many decline due to overexpansion, internal strife, economic decline, or external invasions.
What causes complex societies to collapse?
The collapse of complex societies is a multifaceted phenomenon that can result from a combination of internal and external factors. Historians, archaeologists, and sociologists have identified several recurring causes, often interrelated, that contribute to the decline and fall of complex societies. Here are some of the most significant factors:
1. Environmental Degradation and Resource Depletion
– Deforestation, soil erosion, and overfarming: These can lead to agricultural decline, food shortages, and famine.
– Water mismanagement: Overuse or poor management of water resources can cause droughts and desertification.
– Climate change: Natural shifts in climate (e.g., prolonged droughts, cooling periods) can destabilize societies reliant on specific environmental conditions.
– Example: The collapse of the Maya civilization has been linked to prolonged droughts and deforestation.
2. Economic Instability
– Overextension: Empires that expand too quickly may struggle to maintain control over distant territories, leading to economic strain.
– Resource inequality: Extreme wealth disparity can lead to social unrest and weaken the economic foundation of a society.
– Trade disruption: Loss of trade routes or economic partners can cripple a society’s economy.
– Example: The Roman Empire faced economic troubles due to overexpansion, inflation, and reliance on slave labor.
3. Political Instability and Governance Failure
– Corruption and inefficiency: Weak or corrupt leadership can undermine governance and public trust.
– Succession crises: Power struggles or unclear lines of succession can lead to civil wars or fragmentation.
– Overcentralization: Excessive reliance on a central authority can make a society vulnerable if that authority weakens.
– Example: The fall of the Western Roman Empire was exacerbated by political instability and ineffective leadership.
4. Social Unrest and Inequality
– Class conflict: Extreme inequality between elites and commoners can lead to rebellion or civil war.
– Loss of social cohesion: Divisions along ethnic, religious, or cultural lines can weaken societal unity.
– Example: The French Revolution was fueled by widespread inequality and social discontent.
5. External Pressures
– Invasions and warfare: External attacks or prolonged conflicts can overwhelm a society’s defenses.
– Migration pressures: Influxes of migrants or refugees can strain resources and destabilize societies.
– Example: The fall of the Western Roman Empire was hastened by invasions from Germanic tribes and the Huns.
6. Cultural and Ideological Decline
– Loss of shared identity: A decline in cultural or religious unity can erode societal cohesion.
– Resistance to change: Societies that fail to adapt to new ideas or technologies may stagnate and collapse.
– Example: The decline of the Byzantine Empire was partly due to cultural and religious divisions.
7. Epidemics and Disease
– Population decline: Pandemics can devastate populations, leading to labor shortages and economic collapse.
– Example: The Black Death in the 14th century contributed to the decline of feudal systems in Europe.
8. Technological and Military Stagnation
– Failure to innovate: Societies that fall behind in technological or military advancements may be overtaken by rivals.
– Example: The Aztec Empire was outmatched by Spanish conquistadors due to superior European technology.
9. Interconnected Crises (The “Perfect Storm”)
– Often, collapses result from a combination of the above factors rather than a single cause. For example:
– Environmental stress can lead to food shortages, which trigger social unrest and weaken the state, making it vulnerable to external invasions.
– Example: The Bronze Age Collapse (c. 1200 BCE) involved climate change, invasions, economic disruption, and political fragmentation.
Theories on Societal Collapse
– Joseph Tainter’s “Diminishing Returns of Complexity”: As societies grow more complex, the costs of maintaining that complexity (e.g., bureaucracy, infrastructure) eventually outweigh the benefits, leading to collapse.
– Jared Diamond’s “Five-Point Framework”: In Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed, Diamond identifies environmental damage, climate change, hostile neighbors, loss of trading partners, and societal responses to problems as key factors.
Conclusion
The collapse of complex societies is rarely due to a single cause but rather a combination of environmental, economic, political, social, and external factors. Understanding these dynamics can provide insights into the vulnerabilities of modern societies and the importance of resilience and adaptability.
How will the finiteness of resources impact the longevity of complex societies?
The finiteness of resources is a critical factor that can significantly impact the longevity of complex societies. Throughout history, the availability and management of resources—such as food, water, energy, and raw materials—have played a central role in the rise and fall of civilizations. In the modern era, the finite nature of resources poses unique challenges due to global interconnectedness, population growth, and increasing consumption. Here’s how resource limitations could affect the longevity of complex societies:
1. Resource Depletion
– Non-renewable resources: Fossil fuels, minerals, and metals are finite and will eventually run out or become prohibitively expensive to extract. Societies heavily reliant on these resources (e.g., for energy, manufacturing, or technology) may face economic and social instability as supplies dwindle.
– Renewable resources: Even renewable resources like fresh water, fertile soil, and forests can be overexploited, leading to scarcity and environmental degradation.
Impact: Resource depletion can lead to economic collapse, social unrest, and conflict over remaining supplies, undermining the stability of complex societies.
2. Energy Transition Challenges
– Fossil fuel dependence: Many societies rely on fossil fuels for energy, transportation, and industry. Transitioning to renewable energy sources (e.g., solar, wind) is essential but requires significant investment, infrastructure, and time.
– Energy return on investment (EROI): As finite resources become harder to extract, the energy required to obtain them increases, reducing the net energy available to society.
Impact: A poorly managed energy transition could lead to energy shortages, economic decline, and geopolitical tensions, threatening the stability of complex societies.
3. Food and Water Scarcity
– Agricultural limits: Soil degradation, water scarcity, and climate change can reduce agricultural productivity, leading to food shortages.
– Water stress: Overuse and pollution of freshwater resources can exacerbate water scarcity, particularly in arid regions.
Impact: Food and water shortages can trigger mass migration, social unrest, and conflict, destabilizing societies and straining global systems.
4. Economic Instability
– Resource-driven economies: Societies dependent on finite resources (e.g., oil-exporting nations) may face economic collapse as resources are depleted or demand shifts.
– Inflation and inequality: Scarcity of essential resources can drive up prices, exacerbating economic inequality and social tensions.
Impact: Economic instability can weaken governance, increase poverty, and lead to societal breakdown.
5. Technological and Innovation Limits
– Substitution challenges: While technology can mitigate some resource limitations (e.g., renewable energy, recycling), it may not fully replace finite resources or address all environmental impacts.
– Innovation bottlenecks: Developing and scaling new technologies requires time, investment, and resources, which may be constrained in a resource-scarce world.
Impact: Failure to innovate or adapt to resource constraints could lead to stagnation or decline in complex societies.
6. Environmental Degradation
– Pollution and waste: Overexploitation of resources often leads to environmental damage, such as pollution, deforestation, and loss of biodiversity.
– Climate change: Resource extraction and consumption contribute to greenhouse gas emissions, driving climate change and its associated risks (e.g., extreme weather, sea-level rise).
Impact: Environmental degradation can reduce the carrying capacity of ecosystems, making it harder for societies to sustain themselves.
7. Geopolitical Tensions and Conflict
– Resource competition: Scarcity of critical resources (e.g., water, oil, rare earth metals) can lead to geopolitical tensions and conflict between nations.
– Inequitable distribution: Resource-rich regions may face exploitation or intervention by external powers, while resource-poor regions may struggle to meet basic needs.
Impact: Resource-driven conflicts can destabilize regions, disrupt global trade, and threaten the longevity of complex societies.
8. Social and Cultural Responses
– Adaptation and resilience: Societies that prioritize sustainability, resource efficiency, and equitable distribution may be better equipped to handle resource limitations.
– Resistance to change: Cultural or political resistance to reducing consumption or adopting new technologies can hinder efforts to address resource scarcity.
Impact: Societal responses to resource constraints will play a key role in determining whether complex societies can adapt and endure.
Historical Precedents
– Collapse of the Roman Empire: Overexpansion, resource depletion (e.g., soil degradation), and economic instability contributed to its decline.
– Easter Island: Deforestation and overexploitation of resources led to societal collapse.
– Modern parallels: Current trends in resource depletion, climate change, and environmental degradation raise concerns about the sustainability of modern societies.
Strategies for Longevity
To mitigate the impact of finite resources and enhance the longevity of complex societies, the following strategies are essential:
1. Sustainable Resource Management: Prioritize conservation, recycling, and efficient use of resources.
2. Transition to Renewable Energy: Invest in renewable energy sources and reduce dependence on fossil fuels.
3. Technological Innovation: Develop technologies for resource efficiency, alternative materials, and environmental restoration.
4. Economic Diversification: Reduce reliance on resource-driven economies and promote sustainable industries.
5. Global Cooperation: Address resource scarcity and environmental challenges through international collaboration and equitable resource distribution.
6. Social Adaptation: Foster cultural and behavioral changes that prioritize sustainability and resilience.
Conclusion
The finiteness of resources poses a significant challenge to the longevity of complex societies. While resource limitations can lead to economic instability, environmental degradation, and conflict, proactive measures—such as sustainable resource management, technological innovation, and global cooperation—can help societies adapt and thrive. The ability to balance resource use with environmental and social needs will be critical in ensuring the long-term survival of complex societies in a resource-constrained world.
What is going to be my standard WARNING/ADVICE going forward and that I have reiterated in various ways before this:
“Only time will tell how this all unfolds but there’s nothing wrong with preparing for the worst by ‘collapsing now to avoid the rush’ and pursuing self-sufficiency. By this I mean removing as many dependencies on the Matrix as is possible and making do, locally. And if one can do this without negative impacts upon our fragile ecosystems or do so while creating more resilient ecosystems, all the better.
Building community (maybe even just household) resilience to as high a level as possible seems prudent given the uncertainties of an unpredictable future. There’s no guarantee it will ensure ‘recovery’ after a significant societal stressor/shock but it should increase the probability of it and that, perhaps, is all we can ‘hope’ for from its pursuit.”
If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).
Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running).
If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing.
Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99
Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps…
https://paypal.me/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US
If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.
You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.
AND
Released September 30, 2024
It Bears Repeating: Best Of…Volume 2
A compilation of writers focused on the nexus of limits to growth, energy, and ecological overshoot.
With a Foreword by Erik Michaels and Afterword by Dr. Guy McPherson, authors include: Dr. Peter A Victor, George Tsakraklides, Charles Hugh Smith, Dr. Tony Povilitis, Jordan Perry, Matt Orsagh, Justin McAffee, Jack Lowe, The Honest Sorcerer, Fast Eddy, Will Falk, Dr. Ugo Bardi, and Steve Bull.
The document is not a guided narrative towards a singular or overarching message; except, perhaps, that we are in a predicament of our own making with a far more chaotic future ahead of us than most imagine–and most certainly than what mainstream media/politics would have us believe.
Click here to access the document as a PDF file, free to download.
The Bulletin: February 20-26, 2025
The Bulletin: February 20-26, 2025
US Flies Bomber Group Over Middle East In Warning To Enemies | ZeroHedge
Bizarre Symptoms of Societal Collapse
Peak Oil. Food. Fascism. Collapse.
Guest post: How the global ‘water gap’ will grow under climate change – Carbon Brief
Bird study finds much larger volumes of toxic PFAS chemicals than previously reported
Trump energy chief says there are upsides to ecological collapse
The ‘Decline’ of Nations: How Elite Surplus and Inequality Lead to Societal Upheaval
The Electrify Everything Myth | Damn the Matrix
The Wider Boundary of Symptom Predicaments
Science Snippets: Human Activity Changes Tilt, Rotation of Earth as Arctic Mercury Bomb Poses Threat
Sustainability is destroying the Earth | Deep Green Resistance New York
Radioactive leaks found at 75% of US nuke sites – CBS News
Racing to Extinction – by Elisabeth
Action 101: Anatomy of a Campaign
Arctic Defence: The Growing Geopolitical Battle for the North | The Epoch Times
Lula pushes oil drilling at mouth of Amazon despite climate risks
A Combination of Supplements and Exercise May Slow Biological Aging
This Next Market Crash Will Break Our Fragile Brains
Solutions: The Art of Avoiding Reality | Art Berman
In 1177 BCE, Civilizations Fell Apart In A Mysterious Simultaneous Collapse | IFLScience
Complexity – Diversity = Fragility – by Eric Keyser
‘Green Grab’: Solar and Wind Boom Sparks Conflicts on Land Use – Yale E360
Scientists discover unexpected decline in global ocean evaporation amid rising sea temperatures
Short-termism is killing the planet – by Jonathan Tonkin
How do you write about collapse, from within in a collapsing world?
Why We’re Failing: We’re Not a Mechanism
The Link Between Soil Health and Water
I Believe The World Is Ending – Does That Make Me Crazy?
The Great Escape | Do the Math
The #1 Warning Sign Capital Controls Are Coming Soon and 3 Ways To Beat Them
Engineered Collapse of the Middle Class
The Great Game Reborn—Energy, Geopolitics, and the Reversal of the Liberal Order | Art Berman
Telling others about peak oil and limits to growth
State of emergency declared after blackout plunges most of Chile into darkness | CNN
Today’s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh CXCVIII–Beyond Peak Oil: Will Our Cities Collapse?
Today’s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh CXCVIII–Beyond Peak Oil: Will Our Cities Collapse?
For long-time readers of mine, you will know that I have emphasised repeatedly the importance of energy to human existence and its complex societies. It is the net surplus energy that we have been able to leverage that allows us to continue growing our material throughputs and keep alive our perception of ‘progress’–particularly via our various technological ‘innovations’–and continue to expand (seemingly without limits) our modern complex societies, especially their economies1.
Over the past two centuries in particular, it is the extraction and refinement of relatively easy-to-access and cheap-to-extract, energy-dense petroleum–what some refer to as our ‘master resource’–that has well and truly led to an explosion of trends that began when we first started gathering in large, complex settlements about 10,000-12,000 years ago.
Further, there’s a very good argument to be made that this extraction and use of hydrocarbons is one of the prime causes of a huge leap in our ecological overshoot predicament with its influence upon our various technologies–especially with regard to food production (that has helped to support exponential population growth), resource extraction, and industrialisation.
On the flipside, however, our use of petroleum-derived energy also drives a variety of negative impacts upon the planet and its ecosystems–something ‘growth’ advocates often ignore and/or rationalise away. (Here I would argue that this ‘purposeful’ overlooking of detrimental consequences is primarily to avoid the anxiety-provoking thoughts that arise when one sees these repercussions and recognises their potential for significant and possibly irreversible harm–better to deny these and go along with the majority that wish for a happy ending to this latest experiment in large, complex societies.)
The realisation that hydrocarbons are a finite resource and have seen the easiest-to-access and least-costly-to-procure reserves already extracted has led a number of people to contemplate a future without this fundamental energy resource2. And as with most things, the prognostications about an unknowable future span a wide spectrum of ideas from a return to a stone-age way of life that is ‘short and brutish’3 to a technological-based utopia in sync with the planet’s ecosystems and the limits that exist on a finite planet.
The issues that get ‘debated’ within the ‘Peak Oil-aware community’ are varied and not unlike those that emerge in any complex subject area. The following are only a handful of the subtopics that arise when discussions occur regarding this significantly important resource and our future, and are by no means complete and somewhat overlapping: net surplus energy; energy-return-on-energy-invested (EROEI); diminishing returns; peak timing; conventional vs. unconventional–i.e., types of oil; socioeconomics; sociopolitics; supply vs. demand; ecological impacts; scale required of resources/new technologies to ‘replace’ hydrocarbons’; and biogeophysical limits to continued growth.
I pivoted towards doing archaeological research commentary/summaries in the past year or so to explore what the numerous pre/historical experiments in complex societies tell us about societal ‘collapse’, but came across the article summarised below just as a somewhat contentious debate began to arise within the Peak Oil community regarding the timing of Peak Oil, and the potential reserves that exist and can be extracted by us in our quest to continue growing and supporting our complex, global-industrial societies.
So, I thought it would be interesting to also include summaries of some published articles on the topic of Peak Oil. Below is my first by Dr. Peter Newman that appeared in the Journal of Urban Technology (2007).
The focus of this paper is basically that ‘the right technology can solve the consequences of Peak Oil’. This conclusion is not surprising given the academic focus of the author and the audience that the journal publishes for–its focus is primarily upon sustaining economic growth via ‘smart’ planning and technology.
While there are suggestions made by the author that I fully agree with (such as advocating for localism), there are others that I do not (such as pushing for mass-produced, industrial technologies to counter oil vulnerability). I do not believe we should be pursuing these industrial-based products because there has been increasing evidence that the production of these devices are helping to push greater hydrocarbon demand/use and contributing to the increased broaching of important planetary boundaries as material throughputs grow accordingly. The believers in such technologies to ‘solve’ our various predicaments, however, refuse to acknowledge or rationalise away such evidence; arguing for the most part that there is no other option–mostly ignoring the perspective of those who advocate for a low-/no-tech future.
The question posed in the article title, as to whether cities will ‘collapse’ post-Peak Oil, is in my mind quite clear: they will. All of humanity’s previous experiments in complex societies have ended more or less the same way: a significant simplification (i.e., ‘collapse’). I see little reason or evidence that our globalised, industrialised complex societies will be any different and capable of staving off a return to a far less complex way of living. In fact, I would argue (and have done so repeatedly) that our ‘decline’ may be far more precipitous than in the past given the degree to which we have expanded and become, for the most part, very dependent upon a finite resource that has ‘allowed’ most of our species to lose the skills and knowledge to survive without it.
In fact, it may be that our complex societies are already in the process of ‘collapsing’ but this has been well hidden via narrative management and massive credit-/debt-expansion. Regardless, it is the realisation of this ‘dependency’ that has prompted a concern for some regarding our societal vulnerability to a waning of our master resource and a call for planning in response. The plans to confront oil vulnerability that are highlighted in the summarised article appear to be focussed upon sustaining what is increasingly looking to be unsustainable, being quite blind to a number of issues.
I sense a significant blindness in this article to some specific impacts of declining hydrocarbon availability that cannot be met–or, at least, not well met due to issues of scale–via ‘renewables’ or other innovative technology, but also to the ecological systems destruction wrought by our materials-intensive industries. Instead, we are exposed to an argument that more mass-produced, industrial products are the ‘solution’ to resource decline rather than a reconsideration of the ‘industrial technology as solution’ mythology.
Despite the rising evidence that these technological ‘solutions’ are anything but a panacea and actually exacerbating our predicaments, it is my feeling that they will continue to be pursued for a variety of reasons–not least of which are the profiteering motives that are associated with them and the general acceptance by the masses of the marketing narrative (i.e., greenwashing) that surrounds them.
My shorter summary notes of the article can be found below the following post and follow-up comment from a fellow ‘Peak Oiler’ as it is apropos to the above Contemplation. It is from Schuyler Hupp whose insightful commentary within the Peak Oil Facebook group we are both members of I have shared previously. I thank him for giving me permission to do so once again (with some very minor edits):
Energy analysts say that the life cycle of aggregate domestic tight oil production will likely be much shorter than that of conventional oil, which peaked in 1970… So if the peak in aggregate domestic production occurs within the next few decades as some predict, then it would raise a bunch of pretty obvious questions:
1) When will tight oil actually peak?
2) As tight oil goes into terminal decline, what alternative energy resources and technology paradigms will replace oil?
3) What will be the net energy return of those alternatives to oil?
4) Does anyone actually know how to manufacture and maintain those replacements without cheap and abundant fossil hydrocarbons?
5) How long might it take to rebuild the infrastructure of western civilization to accommodate whatever new energy paradigm happens to emerge?
6) If net energy and surplus energy are lower under the new paradigm, with lower economic output and less to go around as a result, how well will societies manage the paradigm shift?
7) If indeed a broader decline scenario ensues, how long might it take before a new social and economic equilibrium is to be reached?
8) How much of a risk is it to assume that technological developments will necessarily materialize, so as to make up for the loss of our most essential resource, the one on which our current civilization is largely based?
Of course oil isn’t the whole energy picture, and although energy has primacy when it comes to economic prosperity, there are other factors to consider such as the broader natural resource base and the health of ecological systems… There’s much food for thought.
PS
I forgot to mention… that chart is for domestic, U.S. production, though it’s implied by “Lower 48 States. There are a number of prominent voices predicting a peak in our tight oil production within the decade. The exact date for global aggregate oil production won’t be known until it’s further behind us, but current data suggests that we may have passed that point as far back as 10 years ago. When tight oil goes into decline it will be a real life lesson in biophysical economics that nobody signed up for; people will have no choice but to adapt.
So far as climate…the range of possibilities is broad, at least from what I’ve seen. When it comes to climate models, when you get to 100 years out, at least the dozen or so I’ve seen… the average surface temperature predictions vary by as much as 400%. It certainly could be that it’s game over for humans and a lot of other species… or it could be that it becomes an evolutionary bottleneck, subsistence to follow… or it could be that things suck, and maybe civilization crumbles, but things somehow continue at a much smaller scale and under a very different paradigm.
Even in the best scenario, I don’t think it would involve 8 billion people living sustainably, or anything close to it. The main takeaway from that oil production data is that economic decline in “developed” nations is at the doorstep. So for a generation or so, it will be a question of how people will adapt physically, psychologically, and socially… Mainly, how people resolve claims on limited resources.
Whatever happens over the longer term, climate wise, is something that will just happen when it happens and to the degree that it happens, regardless of the reality of peaking fossil hydrocarbons, though that certainly won’t hurt when it comes to the climate system. Given the shortcomings of human nature, cognitive and otherwise, there’s no reason to expect preemptive actions toward preventing climate change, certainly not at a broad scale… but people are still going to have to deal with the shorter term challenges with regard to resource limits and economic effects.
Summary Notes
Beyond Peak Oil: Will Our Cities Collapse?
Peter Newman
Journal of Urban Technology 14:2 (2007), pp. 15-30
Acknowledging the inevitable decline in the production of oil fields (and providing a brief introduction regarding the history of this realisation) and arguing that the exact date of Peak Oil is not as relevant as the recognition of it, human societies need to plan for this eventuality as time is running out to prepare adequately. There are four possible scenarios that need to be considered for this planning, especially for urban centres in advanced economies.
- Collapse–given pre/historical examples, this is a distinct possibility–especially for those cities that require massive amounts of oil to support their complexities (i.e., those in advanced economies);
- Ruralised Cities–a dispersal of urbanites out of the city into the countryside to establish permaculture villages and suburban agriculture is what some envision but is unlikely without a significant population decline as well as the adoption of far more sustainable lifestyles;
- Divided Cities–the creation of ‘electrified cores’ for the wealthy few while the remainder of the urban population is on the periphery fighting for survival;
- Resilient, Sustainable, Solar City–this is what we should be striving for, an electrified city for all residents.
Arguing that the threat of Peak Oil needs to be taken seriously, the author suggests that the United Nations must take the lead in setting goals for weaning economies off of oil with cities/states creating strategies to accomplish this. Some have begun to explore options, such as the prospects of a Hydrogen Economy.
Cities must plan for significantly reduced car use since they are the factor that most impacts urban vulnerability to oil decline. Public transport must be prioritised (e.g., electric rail lines and buses) as well as mixed land use and denser populations within urban cores and rural lands left for food production.
The impacts from declining oil supplies on agriculture will be significant and we need to halt the expansion of suburban residences onto arable lands. Establishing ‘Horticultural Precincts’ beside urban centres is recommended. Food production needs to become localised and surpluses pursued for trade purposes with nearby communities.
Localism needs to be pushed and innovation in it funded, especially of urban technologies.
A variety of regulations subsidise oil consumption and it is likely that regulations need to be developed to help reduce the use of internal combustion engine vehicles and increase that of hybrid transport. Massive investment in wind farms should occur. As there seems to be no alternatives to hydrocarbons for aviation, unnecessary travel should be reduced via increased pricing.
Advanced economies have virtually no plans for handling oil vulnerability. We need to adapt by using less and shifting our technology.
The more detailed summary notes can be found here.
What is going to be my standard WARNING/ADVICE going forward and that I have reiterated in various ways before this:
“Only time will tell how this all unfolds but there’s nothing wrong with preparing for the worst by ‘collapsing now to avoid the rush’ and pursuing self-sufficiency. By this I mean removing as many dependencies on the Matrix as is possible and making do, locally. And if one can do this without negative impacts upon our fragile ecosystems or do so while creating more resilient ecosystems, all the better.
Building community (maybe even just household) resilience to as high a level as possible seems prudent given the uncertainties of an unpredictable future. There’s no guarantee it will ensure ‘recovery’ after a significant societal stressor/shock but it should increase the probability of it and that, perhaps, is all we can ‘hope’ for from its pursuit.
Some recent and related articles of interest:
What Will Energy Dominance Be Used For? – by Arthur Berman
America’s War On Coal Power-Plants Is Over | ZeroHedge
The Double Bind of Collapse | how to save the world
Ecological Collapse Supersedes Financial Collapse
We Are the Stewards of Our Future – by Nate Hagens
On Human (Over)Population – by Andrea P
Shell’s Flawed Report: The 2025 Energy Security Scenarios
Supercharging the Predicaments We Face
The Renewable Houdini Act – PenguinEmpireReports
Nuclear Fusion Is Just More Bullshit
Solar Panels for Collapse, Are They Worth It? Here’s an Honest Answer.
Overshoot Deficit Disorder – George Tsakraklides
Averting Collapse Is No Longer Profitable
The world isn’t close to breaking free from coal — in some countries, demand for it is surging
Dr William Rees Our obsolescent brains The climate, economics and overshoot
Peak Oil. Food. Fascism. Collapse.
The Wider Boundary of Symptom Predicaments.
If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).
Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running).
If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing.
Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99
Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps…
https://paypal.me/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US
If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.
You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.
AND
Released September 30, 2024
It Bears Repeating: Best Of…Volume 2
A compilation of writers focused on the nexus of limits to growth, energy, and ecological overshoot.
With a Foreword by Erik Michaels and Afterword by Dr. Guy McPherson, authors include: Dr. Peter A Victor, George Tsakraklides, Charles Hugh Smith, Dr. Tony Povilitis, Jordan Perry, Matt Orsagh, Justin McAffee, Jack Lowe, The Honest Sorcerer, Fast Eddy, Will Falk, Dr. Ugo Bardi, and Steve Bull.
The document is not a guided narrative towards a singular or overarching message; except, perhaps, that we are in a predicament of our own making with a far more chaotic future ahead of us than most imagine–and most certainly than what mainstream media/politics would have us believe.
Click here to access the document as a PDF file, free to download.
Although much of the expansion of the past handful of decades can be greatly attributed to a gargantuan increase in debt-/credit-based currencies; including the growth of energy resources.
Note, however, that some still refuse to accept such finiteness and/or rationalise it away with assertions that a ‘free’ market will adjust to such biogeophysical realities introducing alternatives or humanity will simply colonise other planets and mine passing asteroids for our resource needs once we’ve exhausted our planet’s supplies.
I would remind readers here that this phrase is often used to describe life before ‘modernity’ and its various technologies but this is not what Thomas Hobbes was referring to when he used it. Hobbes was advocating for strong, central authority as a result of people living in a constant state of fear, lacking the necessities of life, and having to struggle to survive prior to its existence.
The Bulletin: February 13-19, 2025
The Bulletin: February 13-19, 2025
CLICK HERE
What Will Energy Dominance Be Used For? – by Arthur Berman
Thirsty For Solutions, Water Scarcity Grips Iraq
Humans will Not Go Gentle into That Good Night
The Double Bind of Collapse | how to save the world
Ecological Collapse Supersedes Financial Collapse
The Crisis Report – 101 – by Richard Crim
We Are the Stewards of Our Future – by Nate Hagens
On Human (Over)Population – by Andrea P
Shell’s Flawed Report: The 2025 Energy Security Scenarios
Earthconomics 101: There Is a Killer on the Loose – George Tsakraklides
The War for Mineral Non-Resources – by Ugo Bardi
Are We Doomed? – Biocentric with Max Wilbert
The Tug of War Between Forests and Oceans
The Psychology of Collapse: A Deep Dive in Human Misbehavior
From the Archives: The Epic Failure Of Modern Experts
The Shape of Things to Come – The Honest Sorcerer
Plant Once, Harvest Forever: 15 Perennial Veggies for Endless Abundance – Garden Beds
Humans Are The Only Animal That Willingly Destroys Their Own Home
How America will collapse (by 2025) | Salon.com
AMOC Collapse: The Looming Climate Catastrophe & Global Consequences
The West Faces Uranium Shortage Amid Competition From China and Russia
Money as an Agent of Death – George Tsakraklides
The Story You’ve Been Told About Recycling Is a Lie
Prepping isn’t just for preppers anymore—it’s time to get a go-bag | Popular Science
The Bulletin: February 6-12, 2025
The Bulletin: February 6-12, 2025
When efficiency becomes a problem: Jevons Paradox in the Age of AI – Conhecimento Hoje
Supercharging the Predicaments We Face
Please, be a NIMBY – by Elisabeth Robson
Nuclear Fusion Is Just More Bullshit
Solar Panels for Collapse, Are They Worth It? Here’s an Honest Answer.
Fiji Water Lawsuit Raises Concerns About Microplastics – Newsweek
Overshoot Deficit Disorder – George Tsakraklides
“Recycling” Makes Plastic Pollution Worse
The end of the dollar has already begun – Collapse Life
The Biggest, Most Corrupt News Organization You Have Never Heard of
Report: Apple Ordered to Provide Gov’t Access to ALL User Data on the Cloud | Headline USA
The Grocery Store Hack That Helps You Avoid Ultra-Processed Foods
The Collapse of the US Elite – by Ugo Bardi
The world isn’t close to breaking free from coal — in some countries, demand for it is surging
Danger of Deep Worldwide Recession in 2025 – Ed Dowd | Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog
Dr William Rees Our obsolescent brains The climate, economics and overshoot
The Daily: 10 February 2025 – By My Solitary Hearth
12 Simple Things That You Can Start Doing Right Now To Become More Independent Of The System
Earth’s water cycle is off balance for the first time in human history | Climate & Capitalism
Trump Says Talk Of Wanting Canada to Be A Part of US Is Serious | ZeroHedge
In Soviet Germany, the government protests YOU
If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).
Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running).
If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing.
Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99
Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps…
https://paypal.me/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US
If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.
You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.
The Bulletin: January 23-29, 2025
The Bulletin: January 23-29, 2025
Collapse or Extinction: The Unholy Double Bind of the 21st Century
US Will Likely Stop Buying Oil From Venezuela: Trump | The Epoch Times
The End of the Regenerative Illusion?
Germany’s Outgoing Economy Minister Warns Europe Not to Over-Rely on US Energy | The Epoch Times
Modern Civilization is Proving to be a Very Fragile Thing
Canada Can’t Afford To Play Trade Chicken With the US
Do Money Supply, Deficit And QE Create Inflation? – RIA
Deforestation and world population sustainability: a quantitative analysis | Scientific Reports
Storm Éowyn: man killed and 725,000 properties without power in Ireland
Misled Climate CO2 Fanatics – Green Energy Is a Road to Nowhere – Global Research
Medical Journal Article Criticises Corrupt Medical Journals
Visualizing Europe’s Dependence On Chinese Resources | ZeroHedge
Gazprom In Turmoil, Forced To Hike Prices On Russians In Middle Of Winter | ZeroHedge
Warming, cooling, or we don’t know?
Homo Sapiens Are Working Overtime to Join ‘The Great Silence’ | Collapse of Industrial Civilization
Where We’ve Been, Where We’re Going
When Renewables Meet Their Limits to Growth
Letter From a Young Canadian: Authoritarianism, Media Propaganda and Repression
World Economic Forum Panel Praises EU Censorship Law
Green Deception: Environmental Activists Serve China’s Energy Agenda | RealClearDefense
Climate change is disrupting food systems across Latin America, UN report says | CNN
‘Last Ice Area’ in the Arctic could disappear much sooner than previously thought
“Landman” vs. the Environmentalists | Mises Institute
2025: On the Brink of the Biggest Oil Shock in History – International Man
The Uncertain Future of Oil: Energy Poverty, Depletion, and ‘Green’ Ambitions
The Bulletin: January 9-15, 2025
The Bulletin: January 9-15, 2025
The Falsification of Everything | how to save the world
Emissions Are SO Not the Only Problem with Cars
Rhyming History: Weimar Germany’s Hyperinflation
At least 6 dead, more than 300 000 without power as major winter storm sweeps through U.S.
Net Energy Cliff & the Collapse of Civilization
Quarter of Freshwater Animals Face Extinction, New Study Warns – Newsweek
Arresting and Killing Greenies: Targeting Climate Change Protests – Global Research
The Science of Anti-Russian Propaganda – by Glenn Diesen
Decoupling what!? – by Gunnar Rundgren
One Way or Another, the World is Headed for a Degrowth Future | by Doug Bierend
The UK’s Strange Collapse – John Rubino’s Substack
Positioned For a Historic Crash – The Daily Reckoning
Natural Gas Production is Contracting
The blackouts are coming – by Elisabeth Robson
The Energy March of Folly | Art Berman
Government Spending Will Cause the Next Financial Crisis | Mises Institute
America’s Great Climate Migration Has Begun. Here’s What You Need to Know. | Columbia Magazine
From Crisis to Connection: Why Radio is the Lifeline You Need to Learn Now
#296: Predicament, not outcome | Surplus Energy Economics
Escobar: Empire Of Chaos, Reloaded | ZeroHedge
The Human Souffle – The Honest Sorcerer
Oh, YouWhat the world needs now is directions for reducing our dependence on technology
Grabbing Greenland’s Oil. But does it Exist? – by Ugo Bardi Mean THAT Democracy | how to save the world
The adverse, long-term health effects of wildfires
Have You Been Faked Out by the Panama-Canada-Greenland Syndrome? – Global Research
What If Tech, the Market and the State Are No Longer Solutions?
Russia, Iran To Sign ‘Comprehensive Strategic Partnership’ Treaty This Week | ZeroHedge
Extreme rainfall leaves 10 dead in Ipatinga, Minas Gerais, Brazil – The Watchers
Thrust Into Power: A Thought Experiment | how to save the world
Never Mind the Propaganda, the World Should Know About America’s Countless Wars – Global Research
Chapter 3 – How energy and natural resources inhibit growth
Los Angeles burns: What you need to know
Credit Card Default Wave Hits U.S. Banks
2025: The Year the Federal Debt Bubble Bursts – International Man
The Bulletin: January 2-8, 2025
The Bulletin: January 2-8, 2025
End Of An Era: Ukraine Halts Transit Of Russian Gas To Europe | ZeroHedge
By Charles & Chris: Doomers Anonymous
The System’s Self-Destruct Sequence Cannot Be Turned Off
Seeing overshoot – by Elisabeth Robson
Fear of the New Year – by Geoffrey Deihl
Three-quarters of the world’s land is drying out, ‘redefining life on Earth’ | Grist
Six Dynamics That Will Shape Our Future
1.3 – Our Energy Slave Boom and Bust
That Sense of Impending Doom: Could Anything Shock The World?
Russia promises retaliation after saying Ukraine fired US-supplied missiles
After Overshoot Can Life Prevail?
Norway Doubles Down on Oil and Gas | OilPrice.com
Degrowth is the Answer – by Matt Orsagh
Debate On “Peak Cheap Oil”: Fact Or Overblown Fear? | Doomberg vs Adam Rozencwajg
Energy Prices, Shale, Global Populism, & the Huge Problem We Must Address – Art Berman | #37
We Are Living In The Good Old Days
A Reality Check on Our ‘Energy Transition’ | The Tyee
Billionaires dangle free speech like a bauble. We gawp like open-mouthed babes
Repression of climate and environmental protest is intensifying across the world
Today’s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh CL–Carbon Tunnel Vision and Resource/Energy & Ecological Blindness, Part 2
Today’s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh CL–Carbon Tunnel Vision and Resource/Energy & Ecological Blindness, Part 2
September 20, 2023 (original posting date)
As I stated at the close of Part 1:
“We have, as a rationalising but not rational story-telling ape, created myths about our place in the universe and how we have contributed to it. Over the past several centuries, and certainly during the most recent one, we story-tellers have weaved narratives that it is our human ingenuity — particularly around technology — that has led to our expansion and apparent ‘successes’ (not the leveraging of a one-time cache of easily-accessible, storable, and transportable dense energy).
Along the way, we have lost sight of our place and dependence upon Nature, and how fundamentally important its complexities are to our very survival. As a result, many continue to cheerlead that which is most dangerous to our and every species existence on this planet; ignoring or rationalising away the signals being sent.”
This story-telling aspect of our species appears to be applicable to every sociocultural institution or school of thought that humans use to help them interpret, understand, and explain the universe and its workings.
As this paper that reviews the evidence surrounding the “…mainstream narrative for achieving socially just ecological sustainability” reminds:
“…humans are storytellers by nature. We socially construct complex sets of facts, beliefs, and values that guide how we operate in the world. Indeed, humans act out of their socially constructed narratives as if they were real. All political ideologies, religious doctrines, economic paradigms, cultural narratives — even scientific theories — are socially constructed ‘stories’ that may or may not accurately reflect any aspect of reality they purport to represent. Once a particular construct has taken hold, its adherents are likely to treat it more seriously than opposing evidence from an alternate conceptual framework.”
Before unpacking the psychology behind this phenomenon, let’s consider the concept of ‘energy blind spots’.
Energy Blind Spots
The term ‘blind spot’ arises from the idea that there exists a “spot within one’s range of vision but where one cannot see”. It’s initial use was physiological in nature but just as the word ‘blind’ had become used to suggest confusion or not controlled by reason, ‘blind spot’ became a reference to other more figurative aspects of life (e.g., morals, intellectual pursuits, general understanding) that one could not see, was confused about, or just simply ignored — the ‘carbon tunnel vision’ I discuss in Part 1 is an example.
In the sense of ‘energy’, it’s the inability to connect the fact that energy is the fundamental underpinning of all life and life processes but also, as Nate Hagens argues (in this video), our tendency to misattribute or ignore the ‘power’ derived from the energy sources we depend upon: “To our ancestors, the benefits from carbon energy would’ve appeared indistinguishable from magic. And instead of appreciating this giant one-time windfall, we developed stories that our newfound wealth and progress had emerged purely from human ingenuity. We had become energy blind.”
Hagens goes on to point out that everything requires energy from animal physiological functioning to human economic systems and everything in between. The ‘benefits’ that energy — particularly the one-time cache of easily-accessible/recoverable, dense, storable, and transportable hydrocarbon fuels — provides to human complex systems is, in human time scales, virtually indistinguishable from magic (see this video).
One barrel of oil, for example, can provide the equivalent of 4–5 years of human labour, but since we have been growing the supply and creating enormous surplus energy we hardly — if at all — take note of the tremendous impact and benefits of this energy source. It has been taken for granted, particularly as it pertains to our expansion of complex socioeconomic systems and technology. And this extremely unique period of our human existence (where we are drawing down a finite resource to ‘power’ our expansion well beyond the natural environmental carrying capacity of our planet) has been normalised within our social zeitgeist. It is the way things have been and will continue to be…to infinity and beyond.
Much gets discounted/ignored/misattributed by most people in their thinking (or, rather, non-thinking) about the hydrocarbon energy that goes into our existence: the millions of years necessary to create it; the complexity of accessing, extracting, refining, and distributing it; the pollution streams that arise from our extraction and use; and, all the energy that is lost in these processes — let alone the significant complexities of the socio-economic and -political aspects (from financial/monetary manipulation to resource wars).
While we appear to have more of this resource each year, we are also growing in both our population and economies resulting in less actual energy available per capita (NB: this metric has plateaued since 2018 when oil production hit its peak) and the very important surplus energy it provides to ‘fuel’ our continuing pursuit of growth (see Dr. Tim Morgan’s website for great insight into this aspect). But rather than consider these aspects of our energy windfall, we instead tend to focus upon our technology and economies (especially in terms of money) believing our current living arrangements have no limit.
In doing so, we fail to consider the drawdown of this finite resource and also the diminishing returns we are encountering as the cheap and easy-to-access reserves have mostly been extracted. To counter this (and other stressors) we have greatly expanded debt and manipulated interest rates. These financial/monetary manipulations have aided our efforts to access perhaps the last of our reserves via tight/shale oil extraction[1].
This has also helped to make it appear that our reserves are boundless — it’s simply our technology and politics holding back endless extraction — ignoring, of course, the significant fall-off in extraction experienced with these shale wells and thus the necessity to increase exponentially the drilling to maintain rates[2]. As Hagens argues, we are simply widening the straw to drawdown more quickly a finite quantity of our most important energy resource.
In addition, these shale oil reserves are drawn from the source rock that feeds other deposits; and once these are used up there are no other places to extract from except perhaps bitumen deposits — an extremely ecologically-destructive and energy-intensive process[3].
Most people’s views of energy production — be it from hydrocarbons or non-renewable, renewable energy-harvesting technology — is rather simplistic; in fact, the vast majority probably don’t even think about it at all as with most complex processes in today’s world and thus the ‘magical’ nature that arises with our technologies.
Hydrocarbon refining is rather complex and energy intensive (with intensity and complexity depending upon the source material) with the various products the result of distillation, cracking, reforming, treating, and blending. Basically, crude oil is heated in a distilling column that vapourises the various chemicals with each condensing at different temperatures as it rises in the distiller. Collection trays then siphon off each product.
As some products are in greater demand than others, ‘cracking’ (so named as it breaks up longer hydrocarbon molecules) is used to convert certain liquids. ‘Reforming’ is the process used to increase product quality and volume for some of these liquids. Natural contaminants (e.g., sulphur, nitrogen, various heavy metals) are removed by binding them with hydrogen (produced by the reforming process) and then used in other industries. Finally, ‘blending’ of various refined liquids is carried out to create the different products that get used to power our vast array of technologies.
Another brick in this energy wall that gets lost for most people is the vast array of products that get produced from hydrocarbons[4]. It’s one thing to argue that non-renewable, renewable energy-harvesting technologies will replace our hydrocarbons, it’s quite another to then look at the products — some of them quite important to our modern complexities, others quite superfluous — and imagine how these will be produced without oil and gas.
There are compelling stories, especially from economic schools of thought, that virtually everything is ‘replaceable’ if there is the demand — ignoring/denying, of course, the biogeophysical limits that exist upon a finite planet (to say little of the Laws of Thermodynamics).
Perhaps among the most important hydrocarbon inputs (and ones that are most people are blind to) include those into our modern, industrial agricultural and transportation systems (especially those involved in our long-distance supply chains). While there exist competing narratives about whether these inputs can be replaced by non-hydrocarbon ones, the scale and economy of such a transition are often glossed over or completely ignored — I find this particularly true for those advocating for the immediate cessation of hydrocarbon energy extraction and use — and with no real plan in place for the consequences of this approach.
The ‘Green’ or ‘Third Agricultural Revolution’, for example, has been made almost entirely possible because of the Haber-Bosch Process. This industrial-scale process for the creation of agricultural fertilisers, herbicides, and pesticides (as well as other non-agricultural products) converts atmospheric nitrogen to ammonia by a reaction with hydrogen that is produced using natural gas as the feedstock but also requiring significant oil and coal inputs.
And while some have argued that the non-renewable hydrocarbon inputs for this undertaking can be replaced by ammonia production via concentrated solar energy (ignoring the same complexities and ecological destructiveness that accompanies the production, distribution, maintenance, and disposal/reclamation of these non-renewable, renewable energy-harvesting technologies), all such bargaining does is attempt to sustain a population well above the natural carrying capacity — a predicament created by our leveraging of hydrocarbons.
As Vaclav Smil highlights in this essay on our population explosion:
“What is the most important invention of the twentieth century? Aeroplanes, nuclear energy, space flight, television and computers will be the most common answers. Yet none of these can match the synthesis of ammonia from its elements…the world’s population could not have grown from 1.6 billion in 1900 to today’s six billion [over eight today] without the Haber–Bosch process.”
Removing the hydrocarbon inputs into our global food supplies would be catastrophic without a well-planned and in-place substitute readily available — and probably one that could not support current population levels, let alone be created in a short period of time. And, because of how the world works, such a withdrawal of these inputs would be felt most horrifically by the disadvantaged members of our species.
Blindness to the importance of hydrocarbon energy to almost all of our complex systems is leading us to offer narratives that most assuredly are making our predicament of ecological overshoot worse. They mostly depend upon tales that highlight human ingenuity, especially with respect to technology, and offer ‘solutions’ to maintain for the most part our status quo systems and complexities.
Perhaps the most mainstream stories are that that rally around alternative energy production and technologies but that continue to depend upon ecologically-destructive industrial processes.
Why do we do this? Why do we construct stories that, depending upon one’s perspective, could be considered suicidal in nature? This I will explore in Part 3.
NB: Note that I did not go into detail about our ‘resource- and ecological-blindness’ but remained focussed upon our energy blindness in this essay. My discussion was already getting longer than originally planned so I decided to leave those aspects since the principles are virtually identical.
In our attempts to simplify our perspective on complexities, we create stories to aid our understanding and then view the world through the lens of our socially-constructed narratives that tend to ignore/deny/rationalise away aspects that don’t fit into our preconceived paradigm/worldview/schema. This is as true for material resources and the ecological impacts of our extractive enterprises as it is for the energy aspect.
[1] See this recent article on US shale oil extraction.
[3] See this, this, this, this, and/or this.
[4] See this, this, this, and/or this.
If you’ve made it to the end of this contemplation and have got something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).
Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running).
If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing.
Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99
Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps…
https://paypal.me/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US
If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.
You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially Catton’s Overshoot and Tainter’s Collapse: see here.
It Bears Repeating: Best Of…Volume 1
A compilation of writers focused on the nexus of limits to growth, energy, and ecological overshoot.
With a Foreword and Afterword by Michael Dowd, authors include: Max Wilbert; Tim Watkins; Mike Stasse; Dr. Bill Rees; Dr. Tim Morgan; Rob Mielcarski; Dr. Simon Michaux; Erik Michaels; Just Collapse’s Tristan Sykes & Dr. Kate Booth; Kevin Hester; Alice Friedemann; David Casey; and, Steve Bull.
The document is not a guided narrative towards a singular or overarching message; except, perhaps, that we are in a predicament of our own making with a far more chaotic future ahead of us than most imagine–and most certainly than what mainstream media/politics would have us believe.
Click here to access the document as a PDF file, free to download.
Today’s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh CXLIX–Carbon Tunnel Vision and Resource/Energy & Ecological Blindness, Part 1
Today’s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh CXLIX–Carbon Tunnel Vision and Resource/Energy & Ecological Blindness, Part 1
September 7, 2023 (original posting date)
In my attempt to ‘market’ the article compilation that was recently published, I joined a couple of Facebook Groups in order to post about the document. I subsequently posted my last Contemplation (that shares my thoughts on the extreme difficulties, if not impossibility, of a ‘managed’ contraction by our species) and received some ‘interesting’ comments within one climate-change group, many of which I attempted to respond to (I’ve included some of these conversations at the end of this post).
Most comments were perhaps only marginally connected to my post. They tended to extoll the virtues of technological ‘solutions’ to climate change (not that I discussed climate change).
In reflecting on the ‘pushback’ to my post and my responses to comments, it would appear that the thinking behind the comments were mostly due to what could be viewed as resource/energy and ecological blindness, as well as carbon tunnel vision. These cognitive ‘blinders’, along with much in the way of rampant ‘marketing’ for technological ‘solutions’, have resulted in many viewing the world along the lines of: ‘human ingenuity and technology’ can, will, and is, saving us from ourselves. And, most certainly, the ‘gate-keepers’ for this particular group.
And the following is not to denigrate the perspectives that pushed back against mine (even if some of them wandered into ad hominem territory). We all believe what we believe based on the ‘best’ (and favoured) information available to us, and then we go to significant lengths to rationalise and ‘protect’ our beliefs. All of us.
As this has become a much longer Contemplation than the ‘ideal’ short ones I aim for, it will be at least in two parts (it may be longer as I’ve only jotted down a few brief notes for Part 2).
Carbon Tunnel Vision
There is an evolutionary-advantageous tendency for humans to view our universe through rather narrow keyholes. It’s quite normal and ubiquitous. It is the way we attempt to perceive, in relatively simple terms, the exceedingly complex world that we exist within.
In our attempts to understand the world, we rely upon experience, deductions, and external sources of information (e.g., social milieu). We make relatively quick assessments of the significantly complex world about us and make choices (e.g., should I flee or fight?) or form beliefs using a variety of heuristics (mental shortcuts). This leads to us focussing upon a narrow array of information out of all that is available — usually that which supports our ‘needs’ at the time — and ignoring for the most part superfluous inputs.
Once we’ve gravitated towards a decision or particular interpretation of our environment, we continue to view the world through this lens. We justify/rationalise our decision and/or cling to our beliefs, particularly if it has served us well or it is held by the majority of people. We tend to disregard that information/evidence that challenges our decision/beliefs, creating a bias that serves to reinforce our interpretation of things and maintain the image of ourselves as rational, perceptive, and ‘objective’ individuals.
As Wikipedia states: “Tunnel vision metaphorically denotes a collection of common heuristics and logical fallacies that lead individuals to focus on cues that are consistent with their opinion and filter out cues that are inconsistent with their viewpoint.”
The ‘bias’ that many people (not all) seem to have, including those that have concerns about the impacts of a changing climate and/or atmospheric sink overloading, is what appears to be a hyper-focus upon carbon emissions. To oversimplify, there appear to be two main viewpoints on the issue. There exist many who hold that carbon emissions are not a problem at all because not only have they been higher in the past but they are what our planet’s vegetation requires as food. In stark opposition are those who argue that our fossil fuel burning is leading to excessive emissions that are causing both extreme weather events and long-term global climate anomalies, especially global warming.
As the following graphic demonstrates (with respect to particular aspects of the issue of ‘sustainability’) this tendency to narrow our perspective can prevent the acknowledgement of so many other aspects of our world — and the graphic only includes some of the many others that could be considered, such as land-system change and biogeochemical flows. Perhaps most relevant is that this tunnel vision keeps many from recognising that humans exist within a world of complex systems that are intertwined and connected in nonlinear ways that the human brain cannot fathom easily, if at all.
My own bias leads me to the belief that this hyper-focus on carbon emissions is leading many well-intentioned people to overlook the argument that atmospheric overloading is but one symptom predicament of our overarching predicament of ecological overshoot. As a result, they miss all the other symptom predicaments (e.g., biodiversity loss, resource depletion, soil degradation, geopolitical conflicts, etc.) of this overshoot and consequently advocate for ‘solutions’ that are, in fact, exacerbating our situation.
This rather narrowed perspective tends to be along the lines that if we can curtail/eliminate carbon emissions — usually through a shift in our technology to supposed ‘carbon-free’ ones — then we can avoid the negative repercussions that accompany the extraction and burning of fossil fuels, most prominently climate change. For many this is the only (or, at least, the most prominent) issue that needs to be addressed to ensure our species’ transition to a ‘sustainable’ way of living.
So, let’s try for a moment to open up this rather narrow keyhole and take in a wider perspective. Let’s look at how some of the other significant planetary boundaries are being broached.
When one opens the keyhole wider, the concern with carbon emissions/climate change may be seen as an outsized one in comparison to boundaries that appear to have been more significantly broached, such as: novel entities, biosphere integrity, land-system change, biogeochemical flows, and fresh water change.
This is not to say that the boundary of climate change is not important, it’s to try to better understand why a hyper-focus on carbon emissions is problematic: it’s one of several tipping points that need our attention, and not even the worst. The most pressing areas that we appear to have overshot beyond climate change include:
· Biogeochemical flows: agriculture and industry have increased significantly the flow of phosphorous and nitrogen into ecological systems and overloaded natural sinks (e.g., atmosphere and oceans)
· Novel entities: geologically-novel (i.e., human-made) substances that can have large-scale impacts upon Earth system processes (e.g., chemicals, plastics, etc.) have grown exponentially, even to the point of some existing in all global water supplies
· Biosphere integrity: human demand for food, water, and natural resources are decimating ecosystems (clearing land for mining and agriculture, for example, may have the worst impacts)
· Freshwater change: global groundwater levels in particular have been significantly altered by human activity and expansion (especially our drawdown of aquifers that exceed significantly their replenishment)
· Land-system change: human conversion of land systems (e.g., solar farms, agriculture, etc.) has impacts upon several of the other boundaries (i.e., biosphere integrity, biogeochemical flows, freshwater change) and the significantly important hydrological cycle
Carbon tunnel vision tends to help minimise, or at worst, ignore these other predicaments of our ecological overshoot. In fact, what I sense and what some of my conversations did suggest is that the issue of ecological overshoot itself is completely off the radar for these commenters. One, in fact, admitted he had never read Catton’s book on the subject but in ‘skimming over’ the summary notes I sent a link for he simply saw “a bunch of vague assertions…didn’t learn anything…probably heading towards a hard wall…”. He then added for effect: “I don’t see any solutions from you. I do see almost entirely your focus on smearing renewables with the exact same material the Deniers and carbon pollution people do. Exactly the same.”
Again, my own bias suggests to me that the reason for this hyper-focus (perhaps the most significant one) has been manufactured by a ruling caste and others that have created a means of monetising carbon emissions, mostly through carbon taxes and cheerleading greater industrial production via a narrative around ‘green/clean’ energy technologies. For, if we were to address those boundaries that have been more severely broached and that require curtailing of the causes contributing to this overshoot (which is human growth — economic and population), we would need to curtail industrialisation and its associated revenue streams significantly; something that would undermine greatly the power and wealth structures that benefit a large but very privileged minority class of humans.
And the marketers of this particular point of view know full well the psychological mechanisms that are effective in ‘persuading’ the masses to hold it and support it — especially the human tendency to defer to expertise/authority and engage in groupthink (see my 6-part series on Cognition and Belief Systems). It should be no surprise, given these tendencies, that the profit-/revenue-seekers amongst us have leveraged them to market the narrative, and associated industrial products, extolling the virtues of them while downplaying/denying/obfuscating the ecologically-destructive nature of what they are marketing.
Even those aware of this issue can fail to see the connection to industrial technology, cheerleading ‘sustainable’ development/practices and ‘clean/green’ (and supposedly) non-fossil fuel-based technologies[1].
As the Energy Blind animated presentation on Nate Hagen’s The Great Simplification website suggests: “…To our ancestors, the benefits from carbon energy would have appeared indistinguishable from magic and instead of appreciating this one-time windfall we developed stories that our newfound wealth and progress had emerged purely from human ingenuity. We had become energy blind.”
This energy blindness (along with ecological blindness) is what I will discuss in Part 2.
We have, as a rationalising but not rational story-telling ape, created myths about our place in the universe and how we have contributed to it. Over the past several centuries, and certainly during the most recent one, we story-tellers have weaved narratives that it is our human ingenuity — particularly around technology — that has led to our expansion and apparent ‘successes’ (not the leveraging of a one-time cache of easily-accessible, storable, and transportable dense energy).
Along the way, we have lost sight of our place and dependence upon Nature, and how fundamentally important its complexities are to our very survival. As a result, many continue to cheerlead that which is most dangerous to our and every species existence on this planet; ignoring or rationalising away the signals being sent.
As I stated to another in a subsequent discussion about another post within the same FB Group that was, again, extolling the virtues of ‘green/clean’ technology:
“We’re going to have to agree to disagree over this. Ideally we would not be debating which industrial-produced transport vehicles or energy sources are ‘better’; they are all horrible. We can’t even get a handle on the growth that is killing our planet so this debate, in that context, is meaningless — especially in a world where the dominant species is in Overshoot. Degrowth, especially in our technologies and industries is where our focus should be. Relocalising everything but especially food production, potable water procurement, and regional shelter needs. All else is superfluous at this point.”
Some examples of comments that suggest ‘narrow keyhole’ perspectives:
Electric Vehicles
KFT: DS what really annoys me is the belief that someone’s time is far too precious to spend it charging an ev. Clearly way more precious than the quality of life of their children. You are correct, people refuse to use their agency.
Me: EVs are no help to ecological overshoot; in fact, they are as bad as ICE vehicles.
KFT: nonsense. Evs cancel out their manufacturing carbon in the first year of driving. ICE vehicles add carbon for their lifetime. By the way evs are likely to last much longer than ICE vehicles further reducing their manufacturing footprint. Ev batteries are 95% recyclable, gasoline is 0% recyclable unless they perfect carbon capture. I don’t anticipate that. By the way people who won’t charge an ev sure as hell won’t ride a bicycle. Just FYI I was bike commuting while you were very likely still in diapers so I know a bit about it.
DS: that’s def not true unless you cherry pick emissions and ignore externalities. in fact, it’s literally impossible for an car to “cancel out” their emissions, that’s literally not scientifically possible and a gross misunderstanding.
and even then, lithium mining still causes drought and leaches brine into natural habitat. mining still chops down rainforests and kills animals. electric vehicles are even more deadly than gas vehicles, even very large animals can’t survive a 7,000lb truck at 45 MPH or higher
Me: I think you need to scratch below the surface of the ‘green/clean’ marketing of EVs and the entire ‘electrification of everything’ narrative. I suggest starting with this article by Dr. Bill Rees: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/15/4508. I would also suggest this compilation of articles by a number of writers on ecological overshoot (in particular read Max Wilbert’s entitled ‘Climate Profiteers Are the New War Profiteers’): https://olduvai.ca/?page_id=65433. PS — you must be quite old given I’m 10+ years into retirement.
Also: https://www.skynews.com.au/opinion/chris-kenny/weve-got-a-problem-here-electric-vehicles-require-a-lot-of-minerals-to-produce/video/e6e3a6c000f8a7890657d5cba2f17324
Overshoot and Food Production
Me: It would appear that you don’t understand that overshoot is a predicament without a solution. The best we might hope for is to mitigate some of the inevitable consequences.
DS: I don’t agree with that, you may not like the solutions but they are available. apathy is the biggest problem we face in society now
Me: DS I don’t agree that there is a ‘solution’ to overshoot except what Nature is going to provide. Most of the ‘solutions’ proposed by homo sapiens make our predicament worse, particularly if they involve more complex technologies/industrial production. In an ‘ideal’ world we could degrow our species and its impacts; unfortunately, we don’t live in an ideal world and most of the ‘decision-makers’ are steering us in an unsustainable and destructive trajectory because there are power and wealth structures that provide their revenue streams and must be maintained regardless of costs (especially environmental). Given that the ruling castes of large, complex societies have been doing this for the 10,000+ years, I see no chance we will do anything different. Of course, only time will tell…
DS: the world currently produces enough food for 16 billion humans
you think reducing food production to 8 billion peoples will make the predicament worse?
Me: Our food production is going to be reduced a lot more than 50% once fossil fuels are no longer available…and the estimates of how many we can feed currently vary tremendously: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2230525-our-current-food-system-can-feed-only-3-4-billion-people-sustainably/
DS: I have no idea why you think that
earth’s agricultural capacity is …..insane…. the Netherlands is the second largest exporter of food in the world next to the USA.
Me: Look into fossil fuel inputs into agricultural. Pesticides. Fertilizer. Herbicides. Diesel machinery. The list goes on. Here’s a paper just on inputs in the UK: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2935130/
DS: I can literally do this for ever
indoor agricultural reduces herbicides and pesticides by 95–100%
Technology
DS: you literally said there is no solution to prevent overshoot, I have to assume you’re a techno-solutionist, basically you’re in the same group as elon musk who believes the future of humanity is on mars
Me: No, technology is what has put us in Overshoot. More of it only exacerbates the predicament.
DS: technology is the only way to survive overshoot, I think overshoot should be avoided. you said we can’t stop overshoot
Me: Please read some of Erik Michael’s work at: https://problemspredicamentsandtechnology.blogspot.com/?m=1.
DS: I’m sorry but this is bullshit
“This new series is critical of the Just Stop Oil Movement, specifically for how the movement makes no real sense to anyone who understands the predicament we are actually part of. Just stop oil means stopping the energy that civilization rests and depends upon — do this and civilization also stops, meaning that 7 billion people and countless millions of other animal species die in rather short order.”
“Just Stop Oil is a British environmental activist group. Using civil resistance, direct action, vandalism and traffic obstruction, the group aims for the British government to commit to ending new fossil fuel licensing and production”
Steve Bull let me repeat that to make sure
“THE GROUP AIMS FOR THE BRITISH GOVERNMENT TO COMMIT TO ENDING NEW FOSSIL FUEL LICENSING AND PRODUCTION”
I really don’t think it’s worth my effort to debunk this gish gallop, I specifically used my self agency to live in a 15 minute city and it’s possible if people choose it
you should honestly stop reading this bullshit blog
Me: Your 15 minute city is based and depends upon fossil fuels. It cannot survive without it.
DS: that’s also bullshit, buses can run on biofuel, buses can literally run on garbage. my neighbor Mesa Arizona literally fuels their garbage trucks with garbage, they make a fuel from gases.
Me: And the production of said buses and garbage trucks?
DS: most of the production can be done with materials like hemp and because hemp is efficient at phytoremediation it creates a completely closed carbon cycle.
by the way, carbon neutrality does not require eliminating 100% of fossil fuels, we can create strict environmental standards and reduce production by 90% -100%
KP: Advanced technologies helping humankind reduce our footprint is what Ecomodernism is about.
Without killing billions we can reduce the population footprint and travel to the stars. This preserves wild spaces and restores natural biodiversity.
And to top it all off:
Space: The Final Frontier
JN: You said, “technology is what has put us in Overshoot. More of it only exacerbates the predicament”
Yes, because and as long as we are trapped on this ‘closed system’ planet we call Earth. But if we can escape the gravity trap we will have unlimited resources in Space.
Interesting statement:
“‘Opting out’ in today’s world is more difficult as there are no more ‘New Worlds’ to exploit for their resources”
Comment: Collapse Cometh? Yes, unless we do something! But why in 148 years? Not sure if this is saying that opting out is ‘giving up’ or a ‘solution’? Yes, we need a new frontier to explore — and we don’t have any territory left on Earth to do that. The areas still remaining ‘unexploited’ must be preserved to save the biosphere and cannot be used for ‘exploitation’.
And why using the term ‘opting out’? Why not word it as part of a solution instead?
There are new worlds to exploit in Space. 148 years is plenty of time to set that up — as long as we have an economic system that will allow it! We need a space colonization and mining program as a solution to the human dilemma — which is lack of territory on Earth to ‘exploit’ and to ‘blow the fuse’…
Our species needs to become a space faring species, with future colonization in space and with mining of minerals on the Moon, Mars, and the Asteroids.
‘Why the human race must become a multiplanetary species’
(https://www.weforum.org/…/humans-multiplanetary-species/)
If you’ve made it to the end of this contemplation and have got something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).
Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running).
If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing.
Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99
Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps…
https://paypal.me/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US
If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.
You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially Catton’s Overshoot and Tainter’s Collapse: see here.
It Bears Repeating: Best Of…Volume 1
A compilation of writers focused on the nexus of limits to growth, energy, and ecological overshoot.
With a Foreword and Afterword by Michael Dowd, authors include: Max Wilbert; Tim Watkins; Mike Stasse; Dr. Bill Rees; Dr. Tim Morgan; Rob Mielcarski; Dr. Simon Michaux; Erik Michaels; Just Collapse’s Tristan Sykes & Dr. Kate Booth; Kevin Hester; Alice Friedemann; David Casey; and, Steve Bull.
The document is not a guided narrative towards a singular or overarching message; except, perhaps, that we are in a predicament of our own making with a far more chaotic future ahead of us than most imagine–and most certainly than what mainstream media/politics would have us believe.
Click here to access the document as a PDF file, free to download.
Today’s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh CXXXI–Sociopolitical Agency, Narrative Management, And Collapse
Today’s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh CXXXI–Sociopolitical Agency, Narrative Management, And Collapse
May 22, 2023 (original posting date)
Today’s reflection is a comment I left in response to an article by Bruce Wilds at his Advancing Time site that discusses the increasing anger building across the planet with respect to growing government oppression and the media’s role in suppressing this through purposeful omission of it.
My comment:
Having studied pre/history for some years I’ve come to the conclusion that none of this is novel or unique. It’s just different than in the past as the ruling caste’s scope is wider and the tools they manipulate/leverage are different.
One avenue has been the manipulation of our sense of agency (something all humans desire to have). The elite have sold us the narrative that we have such agency because of our ‘democratic’ sociopolitical systems and the ‘choices’ we make at the ballot box. That’s simply nonsense.
As is the idea that our ruling caste (especially their frontline propagandists — the political system) puts front and foremost the welfare and prosperity of the hoi polloi. Their primary concern/motivation is the control/expansion of the wealth-generation/-extraction systems that ensure their revenue streams and thus positions of power and prestige.
This has been the way since our first large, complex societies provided differential access to and control of net surpluses to a minority of ‘functionaries’ that helped to organise re/distribution of these resources.
I am also convinced that as we run up against the diminishing returns inherent in resource extraction/use (especially energy, the fundamental resource supporting all these complexities) we will (and are) witnessing a tightening-of-the-screws by the elite since they can no longer rely almost exclusively upon narrative control (their preferred method as it tends to be more efficient and economical, and prevents social unrest) but must increase their use of coercion (mostly via legislation) to keep the masses in ignorance and feeding their insatiable desires for power and wealth.
How this ends is anybody’s guess but in every iteration to date in our experiments with large, complex societies, diminishing returns has led to eventual ‘collapse’ where the masses find the ‘costs’ of remaining in the elite-controlled system greatly outweigh the ‘benefits’ and opt out in whatever way they can.
If you’ve made it to the end of this contemplation and have got something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).
Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running).
If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing.
Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99
Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps…
https://paypal.me/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US
If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.
You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially Catton’s Overshoot and Tainter’s Collapse: see here.
It Bears Repeating: Best Of…Volume 1
A compilation of writers focused on the nexus of limits to growth, energy, and ecological overshoot.
With a Foreword and Afterword by Michael Dowd, authors include: Max Wilbert; Tim Watkins; Mike Stasse; Dr. Bill Rees; Dr. Tim Morgan; Rob Mielcarski; Dr. Simon Michaux; Erik Michaels; Just Collapse’s Tristan Sykes & Dr. Kate Booth; Kevin Hester; Alice Friedemann; David Casey; and, Steve Bull.
The document is not a guided narrative towards a singular or overarching message; except, perhaps, that we are in a predicament of our own making with a far more chaotic future ahead of us than most imagine–and most certainly than what mainstream media/politics would have us believe.
Click here to access the document as a PDF file, free to download.
