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Tag Archives: climate change
The Bulletin: April 17-23, 2025
The Bulletin: April 17-23, 2025
This past week’s articles of interest…
If you’re new to my writing, check out this overview.
How Climate Change Fuels Increasing Wildfire Disasters
Extended Heatwave in India, Pakistan To Test Survivability
History Will Not Repeat Itself – George Tsakraklides
Zero-Based Extinction: Nature’s Life Support Gets a Sunset Clause
The Structure of Geopolitical Revolutions | Art Berman
Technology Addiction and Lessons
The unregulated link in a toxic supply chain | Grist
What will happen when the world runs out of oil? | 60 Minutes Australia
EIA Says U.S. Oil Production Will Peak in 2027 | OilPrice.com
Unintended Consequences in a Complex World – by Nate Hagens
How Things Break: Hyper-Optimization
Being Certain About Uncertainty – The Honest Sorcerer
2030 Doomsday Scenario: The Great Nuclear Collapse
Poverty and Progress – by Gunnar Rundgren
Our Sad Species | how to save the world
What’s “Normal” in a Hyper-Normalized World?
Science Snippets: The Disasters Of Cooking and Heating With Plastic
Pope Francis Failed: Now we Need a New Religion?
From Gridlock to Road Rage: What Collapse Feels Like
If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).
Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running).
If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing.
Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99
Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps…
https://paypal.me/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US
If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.
You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.
The Bulletin: March 27-April 2, 2025
The Bulletin: March 27-April 2, 2025
This past week’s articles of interest…
Swedish shoppers boycott supermarkets over ‘runaway’ food prices | Sweden | The Guardian
The future of wetlands: Predicting ecological shifts in the Middle Yangtze River Basin
Agriculture in the Crosshairs: Breadbasket Collapse at 2°C and 3°C
US Government is a Big Money Laundering Operation – John Rubino | Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog
Ukraine Was CIA Regime Change Operation – by Jeffrey Sachs
Collapse: What Would Grok Do? – by Ugo Bardi
Clouds may amplify global warming far more than previously understood
States Work To Make Gold and Silver Alternative Currencies To US Dollar
Resistance and the First Amendment: What You Can (and Can’t) Say in a Dying Empire
Earth’s storage of water in soil, lakes and rivers is dwindling. And it’s especially bad for farming
Earth’s Land Masses Are Drying Out Fast, Scientists Warn – Inside Climate News
Can We Find Unity in Collapse? – by Geoffrey Deihl
Researchers Identify Diets In Mid-Life Linked To Healthy Aging
Foes and Friends of Nuclear Power Face Off Near Three Mile Island
MIT Predicted Society Collapse: Are We Doomed Sooner Than Expected?
From the Archives: So That’s Who’s Screwing Up Everything
Guide to Personal and Household Preparedness
Biodiversity Collapse, Climate Feedback Loops, the Population Bottleneck, and Human Extinction
This Is Collapse. What Do We Do Now?
Ishmael: Chapter 2 | Do the Math
Biden Lied About Everything, Including Nuclear Risk, During Ukraine Operation
Advanced Economies Are Being Pushed Toward Financial Collapse
Ice storm leaves more than 450 000 customers without power in U.S. and Canada
The Loneliness Of Ecological Awareness
The High Price Of War With Iran: $10 Gas And The Collapse Of The US Economy
Rethinking Science, Reclaiming Wisdom | Art Berman
BRACE FOR IMPACT – by Margi Prideaux, PhD – Radically Local
Redrawing Boundaries in a Multipolar World: A New Phase of World War 3
If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).
Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running).
If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing.
Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99
Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps…
https://paypal.me/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US
If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.
You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.
The Bulletin: March 20-26, 2025
The Bulletin: March 20-26, 2025
Threats to U.S. Security: Aging Infrastructure, Fragile Systems, and Information Warfare
The Planet Can’t Afford AI – by Kollibri terre Sonnenblume
The Market Will Crash – Here’s When
Here is how the government will force you to enlist in the army
Infrastructure is the collapse indicator no one is talking about
The “Energy Transition” is a Pipe Dream | Jean-Baptiste Fressoz
Health Prepping: Stop Poisoning Yourself, Part 1
Americans See the Risks but Still Do Nothing
The Nuclear War Plan for Iran – Ken Klippenstein
Major-power conflict ‘no longer unimaginable’, Australian intelligence review finds
Forests: The Impossible Mitigation Task – by Ugo Bardi
Trump Invokes Wartime Powers to Boost U.S. Critical Minerals Output | OilPrice.com
How NATO provoked Russia in Ukraine and prevented peace
The Eternal Present: The Good That’s Been Forgotten Has Been Lost
We are in the middle of a climate apocalypse. But do we really care? | The Indian Express
Andean Glaciers Threaten Million People
The Evolution of Modernity – resilience
How Decades Of Factory Farming Paved the Way For Today’s Superbugs Crisis
Is the AI juice worth the carbon squeeze?
The Nuclear Non-Solution – The Honest Sorcerer
The Mad Scramble for Power: Global Superpowers’ Strategies for Energy, Economics, and War
Hegseth Orders Additional Carrier To Middle East Amid Yemen Escalation | ZeroHedge
A Hidden Risk That Could Trigger Financial Collapse
Iran in the Crosshairs. Mike Whitney – Global Research
Ishmael Overview | Do the Math
How to Die by Living: A User’s Guide to Modern Collapse
Scientists identify ‘tipping point’ that caused clumps of toxic Florida seaweed
From deluges to drought: Climate change speeds up water cycle, triggers more extreme weather
Microplastics: a quick beginner’s guide | by The Medium Newsletter | Mar, 2025
Canada Pressures Social Media to Censor Election Content
America’s Self-Destruction Continues
If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).
Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running).
If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing.
Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99
Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps…
https://paypal.me/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US
If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.
You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.
The Bulletin: March 13-19, 2025
The Bulletin: March 13-19, 2025
The Great Gas Pipeline Caper of 2025 – by Terry Cowan
BlackRock CEO Says American ‘Practicalism’ Can ‘Make Energy Great’ | The Epoch Times
Some Psychology for Responding To a World in Chaos
Can We Feed Ourselves Just out of Our Vegetable Gardens?
The Lost Art of Grieving: Grief as Ritual, Resistance, and Resilience
Welcome to the Era of Energy Realism – by Roger Pielke Jr.
We Have Even Less Time than We Thought to Get Ready for Collapse
Canada’s critical minerals and why Trump wants them
What about installing solar arrays on farms? Isn’t that a good use of land?
Acres of Amazon rainforest trees cut down to build road for climate summit
When Dissent Becomes a Crime: The War on Political Speech Begins – Global Research
Power and Control- The Vast Censorship Enterprise
The 2027 American War with Canada — A Soldier’s Perspective
The Ponzi Is Crumbling – by Lau Vegys
Mind-Boggling: Microplastics are Blotting Out Photosynthesis
The 7 Fundamental Drivers of Overshoot – by Nate Hagens
The twilight of American hegemony – Collapse Life
You’ve Got a Blackout in Pennsylvania | RealClearWire
Doug Casey on Fort Knox, Government Secrecy, and the True Role of Gold
9 Takeaways from the JP Morgan Chase Energy Study You Won’t Want to Miss
Many U.S. bird species seen as reaching population ‘tipping point’ – The Japan Times
Europe Faces Late-Winter Test to Its Energy System Resilience | OilPrice.com
The Global Reset: Energy, Geopolitics, and Market Upheaval | Art Berman
Throwing the Monkey Wrench Into the System
A Civilisation Built on Conflict and Supremacy – George Tsakraklides
Alexa’s Privacy Backtrack: Amazon Pushes All Voice Data to the Cloud
Degrowth: Sanity in Spiraling Chaos – by Geoffrey Deihl
Saudi Aramco, IEA Chiefs Clash In Houston Over the Future of Oil
US wild bird populations continue steep decline | Climate & Capitalism
Jeff Currie’s “New Joule Order”—A Compelling but Flawed Energy Framework | Art Berman
The Ball Comes to Rest | Do the Math
Trump Says He’s Authorizing Use of Coal for Energy Production | The Epoch Times
Is 100 Years Of Cheap Food Coming To An End?
Shut Up About Trump, It’s Not Resistance
Trump Positions US Military For Imminent War With Iran
If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).
Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running).
If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing.
Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99
Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps…
https://paypal.me/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US
If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.
You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.
The Bulletin: February 20-26, 2025
The Bulletin: February 20-26, 2025

US Flies Bomber Group Over Middle East In Warning To Enemies | ZeroHedge
Bizarre Symptoms of Societal Collapse
Peak Oil. Food. Fascism. Collapse.
Guest post: How the global ‘water gap’ will grow under climate change – Carbon Brief
Bird study finds much larger volumes of toxic PFAS chemicals than previously reported
Trump energy chief says there are upsides to ecological collapse
The ‘Decline’ of Nations: How Elite Surplus and Inequality Lead to Societal Upheaval
The Electrify Everything Myth | Damn the Matrix
The Wider Boundary of Symptom Predicaments
Science Snippets: Human Activity Changes Tilt, Rotation of Earth as Arctic Mercury Bomb Poses Threat
Sustainability is destroying the Earth | Deep Green Resistance New York
Radioactive leaks found at 75% of US nuke sites – CBS News
Racing to Extinction – by Elisabeth
Action 101: Anatomy of a Campaign
Arctic Defence: The Growing Geopolitical Battle for the North | The Epoch Times
Lula pushes oil drilling at mouth of Amazon despite climate risks
A Combination of Supplements and Exercise May Slow Biological Aging
This Next Market Crash Will Break Our Fragile Brains
Solutions: The Art of Avoiding Reality | Art Berman
In 1177 BCE, Civilizations Fell Apart In A Mysterious Simultaneous Collapse | IFLScience
Complexity – Diversity = Fragility – by Eric Keyser
‘Green Grab’: Solar and Wind Boom Sparks Conflicts on Land Use – Yale E360
Scientists discover unexpected decline in global ocean evaporation amid rising sea temperatures
Short-termism is killing the planet – by Jonathan Tonkin
How do you write about collapse, from within in a collapsing world?
Why We’re Failing: We’re Not a Mechanism
The Link Between Soil Health and Water
I Believe The World Is Ending – Does That Make Me Crazy?
The Great Escape | Do the Math
The #1 Warning Sign Capital Controls Are Coming Soon and 3 Ways To Beat Them
Engineered Collapse of the Middle Class
The Great Game Reborn—Energy, Geopolitics, and the Reversal of the Liberal Order | Art Berman
Telling others about peak oil and limits to growth
State of emergency declared after blackout plunges most of Chile into darkness | CNN
The Bulletin: February 13-19, 2025
The Bulletin: February 13-19, 2025

CLICK HERE
What Will Energy Dominance Be Used For? – by Arthur Berman
Thirsty For Solutions, Water Scarcity Grips Iraq
Humans will Not Go Gentle into That Good Night
The Double Bind of Collapse | how to save the world
Ecological Collapse Supersedes Financial Collapse
The Crisis Report – 101 – by Richard Crim
We Are the Stewards of Our Future – by Nate Hagens
On Human (Over)Population – by Andrea P
Shell’s Flawed Report: The 2025 Energy Security Scenarios
Earthconomics 101: There Is a Killer on the Loose – George Tsakraklides
The War for Mineral Non-Resources – by Ugo Bardi
Are We Doomed? – Biocentric with Max Wilbert
The Tug of War Between Forests and Oceans
The Psychology of Collapse: A Deep Dive in Human Misbehavior
From the Archives: The Epic Failure Of Modern Experts
The Shape of Things to Come – The Honest Sorcerer
Plant Once, Harvest Forever: 15 Perennial Veggies for Endless Abundance – Garden Beds
Humans Are The Only Animal That Willingly Destroys Their Own Home
How America will collapse (by 2025) | Salon.com
AMOC Collapse: The Looming Climate Catastrophe & Global Consequences
The West Faces Uranium Shortage Amid Competition From China and Russia
Money as an Agent of Death – George Tsakraklides
The Story You’ve Been Told About Recycling Is a Lie
Prepping isn’t just for preppers anymore—it’s time to get a go-bag | Popular Science
The Bulletin: February 6-12, 2025
The Bulletin: February 6-12, 2025
When efficiency becomes a problem: Jevons Paradox in the Age of AI – Conhecimento Hoje
Supercharging the Predicaments We Face
Please, be a NIMBY – by Elisabeth Robson
Nuclear Fusion Is Just More Bullshit
Solar Panels for Collapse, Are They Worth It? Here’s an Honest Answer.
Fiji Water Lawsuit Raises Concerns About Microplastics – Newsweek
Overshoot Deficit Disorder – George Tsakraklides
“Recycling” Makes Plastic Pollution Worse
The end of the dollar has already begun – Collapse Life
The Biggest, Most Corrupt News Organization You Have Never Heard of
Report: Apple Ordered to Provide Gov’t Access to ALL User Data on the Cloud | Headline USA
The Grocery Store Hack That Helps You Avoid Ultra-Processed Foods
The Collapse of the US Elite – by Ugo Bardi
The world isn’t close to breaking free from coal — in some countries, demand for it is surging
Danger of Deep Worldwide Recession in 2025 – Ed Dowd | Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog
Dr William Rees Our obsolescent brains The climate, economics and overshoot
The Daily: 10 February 2025 – By My Solitary Hearth
12 Simple Things That You Can Start Doing Right Now To Become More Independent Of The System
Earth’s water cycle is off balance for the first time in human history | Climate & Capitalism
Trump Says Talk Of Wanting Canada to Be A Part of US Is Serious | ZeroHedge
In Soviet Germany, the government protests YOU
If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).
Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running).
If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing.
Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99
Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps…
https://paypal.me/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US
If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.
You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.
The Bulletin: January 30-February 5, 2024
The Bulletin: January 30-February 5, 2024
Trump’s Bold Energy Gamble: It’s Not What You Think | Art Berman
The Geopolitics of Climate Change || Peter Zeihan
The longest 10 minutes of your life have just begun – George Tsakraklides
The Dangers of Propaganda, Language Manipulation, and Thought Crimes
They Don’t Just Tell Us What To Think, They Train Us HOW To Think
Megadroughts are on the rise worldwide
Finally, an answer to why Earth’s oceans have been on a record hot streak | Grist
AMERICAN EMPIRE (Part Two): Holy War – by David Haggith
The Sweet Spot Between Doomscrolling and Hopium Smoking
Tom Cotton Admits The US Doesn’t Actually Care About Spreading Democracy
Surprising science — There’s no such thing as clean energy?
Trump Claims “We Have All the Oil We Need” True or False? – MishTalk
#298: Energy, not money – the sequence unfolds | Surplus Energy Economics
Lots of Solutions, But for Which Problems?
Peak Oil: Requiem for a Failed Paradigm | Art Berman
Our Project Is Self-Contradictory
Towards a WW III Scenario. The Privatization of Nuclear War. Michel Chossudovsky – Global Research
Ukraine Open To Trump Demand To Exchange Rare Earth Elements For Arms | ZeroHedge
EU AI Act Effectively Legalizes Biometric Mass Surveillance
From the Archives: This Is What Inflation Does To Our Kids
Trump Goes All-In On Stealing Gaza For His Zionist Owners
Always Adding More: The Unpopular Reality about Energy Transitions
The Bulletin: January 23-29, 2025
The Bulletin: January 23-29, 2025
Collapse or Extinction: The Unholy Double Bind of the 21st Century
US Will Likely Stop Buying Oil From Venezuela: Trump | The Epoch Times
The End of the Regenerative Illusion?
Germany’s Outgoing Economy Minister Warns Europe Not to Over-Rely on US Energy | The Epoch Times
Modern Civilization is Proving to be a Very Fragile Thing
Canada Can’t Afford To Play Trade Chicken With the US
Do Money Supply, Deficit And QE Create Inflation? – RIA
Deforestation and world population sustainability: a quantitative analysis | Scientific Reports
Storm Éowyn: man killed and 725,000 properties without power in Ireland
Misled Climate CO2 Fanatics – Green Energy Is a Road to Nowhere – Global Research
Medical Journal Article Criticises Corrupt Medical Journals
Visualizing Europe’s Dependence On Chinese Resources | ZeroHedge
Gazprom In Turmoil, Forced To Hike Prices On Russians In Middle Of Winter | ZeroHedge
Warming, cooling, or we don’t know?
Homo Sapiens Are Working Overtime to Join ‘The Great Silence’ | Collapse of Industrial Civilization
Where We’ve Been, Where We’re Going
When Renewables Meet Their Limits to Growth
Letter From a Young Canadian: Authoritarianism, Media Propaganda and Repression
World Economic Forum Panel Praises EU Censorship Law
Green Deception: Environmental Activists Serve China’s Energy Agenda | RealClearDefense
Climate change is disrupting food systems across Latin America, UN report says | CNN
‘Last Ice Area’ in the Arctic could disappear much sooner than previously thought
“Landman” vs. the Environmentalists | Mises Institute
2025: On the Brink of the Biggest Oil Shock in History – International Man
The Uncertain Future of Oil: Energy Poverty, Depletion, and ‘Green’ Ambitions
The Bulletin: January 9-15, 2025
The Bulletin: January 9-15, 2025
The Falsification of Everything | how to save the world
Emissions Are SO Not the Only Problem with Cars
Rhyming History: Weimar Germany’s Hyperinflation
At least 6 dead, more than 300 000 without power as major winter storm sweeps through U.S.
Net Energy Cliff & the Collapse of Civilization
Quarter of Freshwater Animals Face Extinction, New Study Warns – Newsweek
Arresting and Killing Greenies: Targeting Climate Change Protests – Global Research
The Science of Anti-Russian Propaganda – by Glenn Diesen
Decoupling what!? – by Gunnar Rundgren
One Way or Another, the World is Headed for a Degrowth Future | by Doug Bierend
The UK’s Strange Collapse – John Rubino’s Substack
Positioned For a Historic Crash – The Daily Reckoning
Natural Gas Production is Contracting
The blackouts are coming – by Elisabeth Robson
The Energy March of Folly | Art Berman
Government Spending Will Cause the Next Financial Crisis | Mises Institute
America’s Great Climate Migration Has Begun. Here’s What You Need to Know. | Columbia Magazine
From Crisis to Connection: Why Radio is the Lifeline You Need to Learn Now
#296: Predicament, not outcome | Surplus Energy Economics
Escobar: Empire Of Chaos, Reloaded | ZeroHedge
The Human Souffle – The Honest Sorcerer
Oh, YouWhat the world needs now is directions for reducing our dependence on technology
Grabbing Greenland’s Oil. But does it Exist? – by Ugo Bardi Mean THAT Democracy | how to save the world
The adverse, long-term health effects of wildfires
Have You Been Faked Out by the Panama-Canada-Greenland Syndrome? – Global Research
What If Tech, the Market and the State Are No Longer Solutions?
Russia, Iran To Sign ‘Comprehensive Strategic Partnership’ Treaty This Week | ZeroHedge
Extreme rainfall leaves 10 dead in Ipatinga, Minas Gerais, Brazil – The Watchers
Thrust Into Power: A Thought Experiment | how to save the world
Never Mind the Propaganda, the World Should Know About America’s Countless Wars – Global Research
Chapter 3 – How energy and natural resources inhibit growth
Los Angeles burns: What you need to know
Credit Card Default Wave Hits U.S. Banks
2025: The Year the Federal Debt Bubble Bursts – International Man
The Bulletin: January 2-8, 2025
The Bulletin: January 2-8, 2025
End Of An Era: Ukraine Halts Transit Of Russian Gas To Europe | ZeroHedge
By Charles & Chris: Doomers Anonymous
The System’s Self-Destruct Sequence Cannot Be Turned Off
Seeing overshoot – by Elisabeth Robson
Fear of the New Year – by Geoffrey Deihl
Three-quarters of the world’s land is drying out, ‘redefining life on Earth’ | Grist
Six Dynamics That Will Shape Our Future
1.3 – Our Energy Slave Boom and Bust
That Sense of Impending Doom: Could Anything Shock The World?
Russia promises retaliation after saying Ukraine fired US-supplied missiles
After Overshoot Can Life Prevail?
Norway Doubles Down on Oil and Gas | OilPrice.com
Degrowth is the Answer – by Matt Orsagh
Debate On “Peak Cheap Oil”: Fact Or Overblown Fear? | Doomberg vs Adam Rozencwajg
Energy Prices, Shale, Global Populism, & the Huge Problem We Must Address – Art Berman | #37
We Are Living In The Good Old Days
A Reality Check on Our ‘Energy Transition’ | The Tyee
Billionaires dangle free speech like a bauble. We gawp like open-mouthed babes
Repression of climate and environmental protest is intensifying across the world
Today’s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh CXLIX–Carbon Tunnel Vision and Resource/Energy & Ecological Blindness, Part 1
Today’s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh CXLIX–Carbon Tunnel Vision and Resource/Energy & Ecological Blindness, Part 1
September 7, 2023 (original posting date)

In my attempt to ‘market’ the article compilation that was recently published, I joined a couple of Facebook Groups in order to post about the document. I subsequently posted my last Contemplation (that shares my thoughts on the extreme difficulties, if not impossibility, of a ‘managed’ contraction by our species) and received some ‘interesting’ comments within one climate-change group, many of which I attempted to respond to (I’ve included some of these conversations at the end of this post).
Most comments were perhaps only marginally connected to my post. They tended to extoll the virtues of technological ‘solutions’ to climate change (not that I discussed climate change).
In reflecting on the ‘pushback’ to my post and my responses to comments, it would appear that the thinking behind the comments were mostly due to what could be viewed as resource/energy and ecological blindness, as well as carbon tunnel vision. These cognitive ‘blinders’, along with much in the way of rampant ‘marketing’ for technological ‘solutions’, have resulted in many viewing the world along the lines of: ‘human ingenuity and technology’ can, will, and is, saving us from ourselves. And, most certainly, the ‘gate-keepers’ for this particular group.
And the following is not to denigrate the perspectives that pushed back against mine (even if some of them wandered into ad hominem territory). We all believe what we believe based on the ‘best’ (and favoured) information available to us, and then we go to significant lengths to rationalise and ‘protect’ our beliefs. All of us.
As this has become a much longer Contemplation than the ‘ideal’ short ones I aim for, it will be at least in two parts (it may be longer as I’ve only jotted down a few brief notes for Part 2).
Carbon Tunnel Vision
There is an evolutionary-advantageous tendency for humans to view our universe through rather narrow keyholes. It’s quite normal and ubiquitous. It is the way we attempt to perceive, in relatively simple terms, the exceedingly complex world that we exist within.
In our attempts to understand the world, we rely upon experience, deductions, and external sources of information (e.g., social milieu). We make relatively quick assessments of the significantly complex world about us and make choices (e.g., should I flee or fight?) or form beliefs using a variety of heuristics (mental shortcuts). This leads to us focussing upon a narrow array of information out of all that is available — usually that which supports our ‘needs’ at the time — and ignoring for the most part superfluous inputs.
Once we’ve gravitated towards a decision or particular interpretation of our environment, we continue to view the world through this lens. We justify/rationalise our decision and/or cling to our beliefs, particularly if it has served us well or it is held by the majority of people. We tend to disregard that information/evidence that challenges our decision/beliefs, creating a bias that serves to reinforce our interpretation of things and maintain the image of ourselves as rational, perceptive, and ‘objective’ individuals.
As Wikipedia states: “Tunnel vision metaphorically denotes a collection of common heuristics and logical fallacies that lead individuals to focus on cues that are consistent with their opinion and filter out cues that are inconsistent with their viewpoint.”
The ‘bias’ that many people (not all) seem to have, including those that have concerns about the impacts of a changing climate and/or atmospheric sink overloading, is what appears to be a hyper-focus upon carbon emissions. To oversimplify, there appear to be two main viewpoints on the issue. There exist many who hold that carbon emissions are not a problem at all because not only have they been higher in the past but they are what our planet’s vegetation requires as food. In stark opposition are those who argue that our fossil fuel burning is leading to excessive emissions that are causing both extreme weather events and long-term global climate anomalies, especially global warming.
As the following graphic demonstrates (with respect to particular aspects of the issue of ‘sustainability’) this tendency to narrow our perspective can prevent the acknowledgement of so many other aspects of our world — and the graphic only includes some of the many others that could be considered, such as land-system change and biogeochemical flows. Perhaps most relevant is that this tunnel vision keeps many from recognising that humans exist within a world of complex systems that are intertwined and connected in nonlinear ways that the human brain cannot fathom easily, if at all.

My own bias leads me to the belief that this hyper-focus on carbon emissions is leading many well-intentioned people to overlook the argument that atmospheric overloading is but one symptom predicament of our overarching predicament of ecological overshoot. As a result, they miss all the other symptom predicaments (e.g., biodiversity loss, resource depletion, soil degradation, geopolitical conflicts, etc.) of this overshoot and consequently advocate for ‘solutions’ that are, in fact, exacerbating our situation.
This rather narrowed perspective tends to be along the lines that if we can curtail/eliminate carbon emissions — usually through a shift in our technology to supposed ‘carbon-free’ ones — then we can avoid the negative repercussions that accompany the extraction and burning of fossil fuels, most prominently climate change. For many this is the only (or, at least, the most prominent) issue that needs to be addressed to ensure our species’ transition to a ‘sustainable’ way of living.
So, let’s try for a moment to open up this rather narrow keyhole and take in a wider perspective. Let’s look at how some of the other significant planetary boundaries are being broached.
When one opens the keyhole wider, the concern with carbon emissions/climate change may be seen as an outsized one in comparison to boundaries that appear to have been more significantly broached, such as: novel entities, biosphere integrity, land-system change, biogeochemical flows, and fresh water change.
This is not to say that the boundary of climate change is not important, it’s to try to better understand why a hyper-focus on carbon emissions is problematic: it’s one of several tipping points that need our attention, and not even the worst. The most pressing areas that we appear to have overshot beyond climate change include:
· Biogeochemical flows: agriculture and industry have increased significantly the flow of phosphorous and nitrogen into ecological systems and overloaded natural sinks (e.g., atmosphere and oceans)
· Novel entities: geologically-novel (i.e., human-made) substances that can have large-scale impacts upon Earth system processes (e.g., chemicals, plastics, etc.) have grown exponentially, even to the point of some existing in all global water supplies
· Biosphere integrity: human demand for food, water, and natural resources are decimating ecosystems (clearing land for mining and agriculture, for example, may have the worst impacts)
· Freshwater change: global groundwater levels in particular have been significantly altered by human activity and expansion (especially our drawdown of aquifers that exceed significantly their replenishment)
· Land-system change: human conversion of land systems (e.g., solar farms, agriculture, etc.) has impacts upon several of the other boundaries (i.e., biosphere integrity, biogeochemical flows, freshwater change) and the significantly important hydrological cycle

Carbon tunnel vision tends to help minimise, or at worst, ignore these other predicaments of our ecological overshoot. In fact, what I sense and what some of my conversations did suggest is that the issue of ecological overshoot itself is completely off the radar for these commenters. One, in fact, admitted he had never read Catton’s book on the subject but in ‘skimming over’ the summary notes I sent a link for he simply saw “a bunch of vague assertions…didn’t learn anything…probably heading towards a hard wall…”. He then added for effect: “I don’t see any solutions from you. I do see almost entirely your focus on smearing renewables with the exact same material the Deniers and carbon pollution people do. Exactly the same.”
Again, my own bias suggests to me that the reason for this hyper-focus (perhaps the most significant one) has been manufactured by a ruling caste and others that have created a means of monetising carbon emissions, mostly through carbon taxes and cheerleading greater industrial production via a narrative around ‘green/clean’ energy technologies. For, if we were to address those boundaries that have been more severely broached and that require curtailing of the causes contributing to this overshoot (which is human growth — economic and population), we would need to curtail industrialisation and its associated revenue streams significantly; something that would undermine greatly the power and wealth structures that benefit a large but very privileged minority class of humans.
And the marketers of this particular point of view know full well the psychological mechanisms that are effective in ‘persuading’ the masses to hold it and support it — especially the human tendency to defer to expertise/authority and engage in groupthink (see my 6-part series on Cognition and Belief Systems). It should be no surprise, given these tendencies, that the profit-/revenue-seekers amongst us have leveraged them to market the narrative, and associated industrial products, extolling the virtues of them while downplaying/denying/obfuscating the ecologically-destructive nature of what they are marketing.
Even those aware of this issue can fail to see the connection to industrial technology, cheerleading ‘sustainable’ development/practices and ‘clean/green’ (and supposedly) non-fossil fuel-based technologies[1].
As the Energy Blind animated presentation on Nate Hagen’s The Great Simplification website suggests: “…To our ancestors, the benefits from carbon energy would have appeared indistinguishable from magic and instead of appreciating this one-time windfall we developed stories that our newfound wealth and progress had emerged purely from human ingenuity. We had become energy blind.”
This energy blindness (along with ecological blindness) is what I will discuss in Part 2.
We have, as a rationalising but not rational story-telling ape, created myths about our place in the universe and how we have contributed to it. Over the past several centuries, and certainly during the most recent one, we story-tellers have weaved narratives that it is our human ingenuity — particularly around technology — that has led to our expansion and apparent ‘successes’ (not the leveraging of a one-time cache of easily-accessible, storable, and transportable dense energy).
Along the way, we have lost sight of our place and dependence upon Nature, and how fundamentally important its complexities are to our very survival. As a result, many continue to cheerlead that which is most dangerous to our and every species existence on this planet; ignoring or rationalising away the signals being sent.
As I stated to another in a subsequent discussion about another post within the same FB Group that was, again, extolling the virtues of ‘green/clean’ technology:
“We’re going to have to agree to disagree over this. Ideally we would not be debating which industrial-produced transport vehicles or energy sources are ‘better’; they are all horrible. We can’t even get a handle on the growth that is killing our planet so this debate, in that context, is meaningless — especially in a world where the dominant species is in Overshoot. Degrowth, especially in our technologies and industries is where our focus should be. Relocalising everything but especially food production, potable water procurement, and regional shelter needs. All else is superfluous at this point.”
Some examples of comments that suggest ‘narrow keyhole’ perspectives:
Electric Vehicles
KFT: DS what really annoys me is the belief that someone’s time is far too precious to spend it charging an ev. Clearly way more precious than the quality of life of their children. You are correct, people refuse to use their agency.
Me: EVs are no help to ecological overshoot; in fact, they are as bad as ICE vehicles.
KFT: nonsense. Evs cancel out their manufacturing carbon in the first year of driving. ICE vehicles add carbon for their lifetime. By the way evs are likely to last much longer than ICE vehicles further reducing their manufacturing footprint. Ev batteries are 95% recyclable, gasoline is 0% recyclable unless they perfect carbon capture. I don’t anticipate that. By the way people who won’t charge an ev sure as hell won’t ride a bicycle. Just FYI I was bike commuting while you were very likely still in diapers so I know a bit about it.
DS: that’s def not true unless you cherry pick emissions and ignore externalities. in fact, it’s literally impossible for an car to “cancel out” their emissions, that’s literally not scientifically possible and a gross misunderstanding.
and even then, lithium mining still causes drought and leaches brine into natural habitat. mining still chops down rainforests and kills animals. electric vehicles are even more deadly than gas vehicles, even very large animals can’t survive a 7,000lb truck at 45 MPH or higher
Me: I think you need to scratch below the surface of the ‘green/clean’ marketing of EVs and the entire ‘electrification of everything’ narrative. I suggest starting with this article by Dr. Bill Rees: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/15/4508. I would also suggest this compilation of articles by a number of writers on ecological overshoot (in particular read Max Wilbert’s entitled ‘Climate Profiteers Are the New War Profiteers’): https://olduvai.ca/?page_id=65433. PS — you must be quite old given I’m 10+ years into retirement.
Also: https://www.skynews.com.au/opinion/chris-kenny/weve-got-a-problem-here-electric-vehicles-require-a-lot-of-minerals-to-produce/video/e6e3a6c000f8a7890657d5cba2f17324
Overshoot and Food Production
Me: It would appear that you don’t understand that overshoot is a predicament without a solution. The best we might hope for is to mitigate some of the inevitable consequences.
DS: I don’t agree with that, you may not like the solutions but they are available. apathy is the biggest problem we face in society now
Me: DS I don’t agree that there is a ‘solution’ to overshoot except what Nature is going to provide. Most of the ‘solutions’ proposed by homo sapiens make our predicament worse, particularly if they involve more complex technologies/industrial production. In an ‘ideal’ world we could degrow our species and its impacts; unfortunately, we don’t live in an ideal world and most of the ‘decision-makers’ are steering us in an unsustainable and destructive trajectory because there are power and wealth structures that provide their revenue streams and must be maintained regardless of costs (especially environmental). Given that the ruling castes of large, complex societies have been doing this for the 10,000+ years, I see no chance we will do anything different. Of course, only time will tell…
DS: the world currently produces enough food for 16 billion humans
you think reducing food production to 8 billion peoples will make the predicament worse?
Me: Our food production is going to be reduced a lot more than 50% once fossil fuels are no longer available…and the estimates of how many we can feed currently vary tremendously: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2230525-our-current-food-system-can-feed-only-3-4-billion-people-sustainably/
DS: I have no idea why you think that
earth’s agricultural capacity is …..insane…. the Netherlands is the second largest exporter of food in the world next to the USA.
Me: Look into fossil fuel inputs into agricultural. Pesticides. Fertilizer. Herbicides. Diesel machinery. The list goes on. Here’s a paper just on inputs in the UK: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2935130/
DS: I can literally do this for ever
indoor agricultural reduces herbicides and pesticides by 95–100%
Technology
DS: you literally said there is no solution to prevent overshoot, I have to assume you’re a techno-solutionist, basically you’re in the same group as elon musk who believes the future of humanity is on mars
Me: No, technology is what has put us in Overshoot. More of it only exacerbates the predicament.
DS: technology is the only way to survive overshoot, I think overshoot should be avoided. you said we can’t stop overshoot
Me: Please read some of Erik Michael’s work at: https://problemspredicamentsandtechnology.blogspot.com/?m=1.
DS: I’m sorry but this is bullshit
“This new series is critical of the Just Stop Oil Movement, specifically for how the movement makes no real sense to anyone who understands the predicament we are actually part of. Just stop oil means stopping the energy that civilization rests and depends upon — do this and civilization also stops, meaning that 7 billion people and countless millions of other animal species die in rather short order.”
“Just Stop Oil is a British environmental activist group. Using civil resistance, direct action, vandalism and traffic obstruction, the group aims for the British government to commit to ending new fossil fuel licensing and production”
Steve Bull let me repeat that to make sure
“THE GROUP AIMS FOR THE BRITISH GOVERNMENT TO COMMIT TO ENDING NEW FOSSIL FUEL LICENSING AND PRODUCTION”
I really don’t think it’s worth my effort to debunk this gish gallop, I specifically used my self agency to live in a 15 minute city and it’s possible if people choose it
you should honestly stop reading this bullshit blog
Me: Your 15 minute city is based and depends upon fossil fuels. It cannot survive without it.
DS: that’s also bullshit, buses can run on biofuel, buses can literally run on garbage. my neighbor Mesa Arizona literally fuels their garbage trucks with garbage, they make a fuel from gases.
Me: And the production of said buses and garbage trucks?
DS: most of the production can be done with materials like hemp and because hemp is efficient at phytoremediation it creates a completely closed carbon cycle.
by the way, carbon neutrality does not require eliminating 100% of fossil fuels, we can create strict environmental standards and reduce production by 90% -100%
KP: Advanced technologies helping humankind reduce our footprint is what Ecomodernism is about.
Without killing billions we can reduce the population footprint and travel to the stars. This preserves wild spaces and restores natural biodiversity.
And to top it all off:
Space: The Final Frontier
JN: You said, “technology is what has put us in Overshoot. More of it only exacerbates the predicament”
Yes, because and as long as we are trapped on this ‘closed system’ planet we call Earth. But if we can escape the gravity trap we will have unlimited resources in Space.
Interesting statement:
“‘Opting out’ in today’s world is more difficult as there are no more ‘New Worlds’ to exploit for their resources”
Comment: Collapse Cometh? Yes, unless we do something! But why in 148 years? Not sure if this is saying that opting out is ‘giving up’ or a ‘solution’? Yes, we need a new frontier to explore — and we don’t have any territory left on Earth to do that. The areas still remaining ‘unexploited’ must be preserved to save the biosphere and cannot be used for ‘exploitation’.
And why using the term ‘opting out’? Why not word it as part of a solution instead?
There are new worlds to exploit in Space. 148 years is plenty of time to set that up — as long as we have an economic system that will allow it! We need a space colonization and mining program as a solution to the human dilemma — which is lack of territory on Earth to ‘exploit’ and to ‘blow the fuse’…
Our species needs to become a space faring species, with future colonization in space and with mining of minerals on the Moon, Mars, and the Asteroids.
‘Why the human race must become a multiplanetary species’
(https://www.weforum.org/…/humans-multiplanetary-species/)
If you’ve made it to the end of this contemplation and have got something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).
Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running).
If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing.
Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99
Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps…
https://paypal.me/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US
If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.
You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially Catton’s Overshoot and Tainter’s Collapse: see here.
It Bears Repeating: Best Of…Volume 1
A compilation of writers focused on the nexus of limits to growth, energy, and ecological overshoot.
With a Foreword and Afterword by Michael Dowd, authors include: Max Wilbert; Tim Watkins; Mike Stasse; Dr. Bill Rees; Dr. Tim Morgan; Rob Mielcarski; Dr. Simon Michaux; Erik Michaels; Just Collapse’s Tristan Sykes & Dr. Kate Booth; Kevin Hester; Alice Friedemann; David Casey; and, Steve Bull.
The document is not a guided narrative towards a singular or overarching message; except, perhaps, that we are in a predicament of our own making with a far more chaotic future ahead of us than most imagine–and most certainly than what mainstream media/politics would have us believe.
Click here to access the document as a PDF file, free to download.
The Bulletin: December 19-25, 2024
The Bulletin: December 19-25, 2024
The Great Simplification in Action: Building Resilience Through Local Communities
Antarctica’s tipping points threaten global climate stability
Homesteading 101: Regenerative Farming and the American Farmer.
Population Decline & Overshoot – Itsovershoot
American Can’t Escape Its Water Crisis | by Angus Peterson | Edge of Collapse | Dec, 2024 | Medium
How ‘the mother of all bubbles’ will pop
Prices Rise As Food Production is Threatened by Drought, Topsoil Loss, and Overheated Earth
Technocracy Rising: Why It’s Crucial to Understand the End Game – Global Research
US Shale Nears Limits Of Productivity
Middle East – Towards Endless Chaos? – Global Research
Even NASA Can’t Explain The Alarming Surge in Global Heat We’re Seeing : ScienceAlert
Nuclear Neo-Feudalism – The Honest Sorcerer
Political Economy Forever? – by Steve Keen
Depression, Debt, Default & Destruction in 2025 -Martin Armstrong | Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog
Health Prepping: Stop Poisoning Your Family
Are You Willing To Reduce Your Standard Of Living By 50%, Or Even 10%
Trump’s Trade Wars Will Fail, Currency Wars Will Be Next – MishTalk
Central Banks Will Prioritize Government Spending Over Inflation In 2025 | dlacalle.com
Superorganism – by Nathan Knopp – System Failure
The American Shale Patch Is All About Depletion Now
US Shale Nears Limits Of Productivity Gains
A Debt Jubilee of Biblical Proportions Is Coming — Are You Ready?
The End Of The Age Of Scientism
A List Of 24 Things That You Will Desperately Need In A Post-Apocalyptic World
The Impending Collapse of Modernity: A Stark Warning for the Next Few Decades
Today’s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh CXCIII—Societal Collapse, Abrupt Climate Events, and the Role of Resilience
Today’s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh CXCIII—Societal Collapse, Abrupt Climate Events, and the Role of Resilience
Tulum, Mexico. (1986) Photo by author.
This Contemplation comments upon and summarises two short archaeology articles on societal collapse.
The first raises the increasing evidence of abrupt climate events being a precipitating factor in societal collapse over the past dozen millennia.
The second discusses the possibility of identifying Early Warning Signals that indicate declining societal resilience and could be used to suggest when preparations for ‘collapse’ would be advisable.
Summaries of both of these articles follow my introductory comments directly below.
Climate shifts happen. Not only do we have evidence that these shifts occurred long, long before our hominid species evolved (100,000-300,000 years ago) but have been occurring with regularity since we appeared. The planet’s orbit around our star, its geology (tectonic plate shifts and volcanic activity), and solar radiation fluctuations have all contributed to past climate changes.
The last dozen millennia have tended to be seen as a period of relatively stable climate which helped to give rise to large, complex human societies. However, there is increasing evidence suggesting that this is not so and that abrupt climate shifts occurred and contributed to both the emergence of these societies and their eventual collapse.
The argument that relatively sudden climate shifts during the past dozen or so millennia may have been more significant in leading to societal collapse than some acknowledge is interesting on a number of levels, not least of which is the concern over the speed with which our current climate system appears to be shifting.
Archaeologist Joseph Tainter argues that complex societies themselves emerge as a result of our problem-solving strategy of increasing complexity. The innovation of sedentary agriculture, around 12,000 years before present (BP), is perhaps one of our species’ more significant ones. It has been theorised that the main impetus to this particular adaptation was a changing climate–people migrated from drying environments, gathered in more suitable areas (particularly in terms of water availability), and these denser populations eventually led to groupings requiring food production innovations and organisational complexities.
The research evidence presented in the first article argues that, regardless of where and when during the past dozen millennia, abrupt climate shifts have served to disrupt this relatively new food acquisition technique to the extent that prehistoric societies that depended upon it were unable to adapt and subsequently collapsed–settlements were abandoned with populations dispersing or dying off.
While the article focuses upon possible disruptions to food production for those that continue to engage in subsistence and small-scale agriculture (a still substantial number on our planet) and the consequences for them, it fails to consider the negative impacts for those in modern complex societies.
Rather than an abrupt climate event being problematic for modern, industrial societies, the authors conclude that they have an advantage over past ones and current small-scale agriculturalists of being capable of tracking and thus predicting potential deleterious environmental changes that would negatively impact food production and thus respond appropriately.
What ‘appropriate responses’ might be is not delved into by the authors but rather they close with the suggestion that strategies be designed to minimise the impacts for those areas to be impacted by impending climate events.
Without getting into the psychological mechanisms that suggest such a proactive and widespread shift in human behaviour and action in the face of impending environmental shifts is unlikely (the second article touches on some of these), complex systems by their very nature are virtually impossible to predict with much accuracy–particularly with regard to timing–and thus why some dismiss modelling predictions of climate change as mostly fear mongering. So there’s this not unsubstantial hurdle.
And, even if we could predict where and when such impacts may occur with precision there may not be adequate time nor capacity for adaptation–particularly given the significantly increased population densities of our modern world and lack of fertile, arable lands to shift to as some past societies did–and, of course, there are some models that suggest that future climate shifts will be of an amplitude that is unadaptable.
The past practice of simply migrating our food production system to suitable areas for agriculture is not only inhibited by political borders and vested interests, but humanity has already leveraged all the best food production regions of the planet and there is little, if any, in the way of rich, arable lands to shift to should significant and/or abrupt climate shifts disrupt currently-used regions.
The standard option of increasing complexity via technological innovation is also problematic given the limits that such an approach has encountered in terms of resources–especially energy–but also the tendency to experience diminishing returns on the investments made: innovations are becoming ever more costly and less effective.
Throw on top of these basic impediments that our current industrial system of food production is destroying the present environments and ecosystems it is using via significant water drawdown of underground aquifers and application of massive amounts of petrochemical-based products, and our societies are in even more of a dire position with regard to feeding everyone in the present let alone at a future time that may experience an abrupt climate shift.
To say we are on a knife’s edge with regard to our global food production systems being capable of adapting to significant environmental disruptions is not hyperbole, particularly in the face of a growing global population and increasing geopolitical turmoil as we encounter limits to growth and resource extraction–especially of our master resource: oil.
The ability to adapt successfully to such changes raises the issue of resiliency, which the second paper discusses. It suggests using Early Warning Signals (EWSs) to identify periods of low resilience in a society so that preparations for impending collapse can be made proactively.
While a commendable suggestion, the roadblocks to the successful widespread adoption of such preparations are in all likelihood insurmountable–for a variety of reasons, not least of which is the vast chasm of disagreement over the recognition or acknowledgement of low societal resiliency and impending ‘collapse’.
It is quite likely our modern, complex societies are well into a low-resilience regime and there exist a number of EWSs that could confirm this. It is also likely that the recognition of and ‘preparations’ for impending and widespread collapse should have begun decades ago.
Instead, as I have argued previously, we have pursued a doubling/tripling of our propensity to pursue more complexity via investments in technological innovations and institutional growth rather than consider the alternative of choosing less complexity and avoiding the pursuit of perpetual growth.
Regardless, in a somewhat hubristic and narcissistic manner, many humans in today’s societies hold on to the notion that our species stands above and separate from Nature, and that we can conquer and control what is for all intents and purposes a completely unpredictable and chaotic world–including threats to our food production systems from a changing climate. There is, then, no need for heeding any warning signals nor preparing for impending collapse through any kind of resilience building nor simplification. For some, the entire ‘impending collapse’ narrative–especially as it concerns resource limits–is a conspiracy by the world’s elite to maintain and extend control over the masses.
For those that perceive there are no limitations to humanity’s increasing prosperity, it is through the pursuit of greater complexity via human ingenuity, technological innovation, and institutional growth that humanity will ‘solve’ any potential societal stresses. The issues of finite resource limits and ecosystem destruction are for all intents and purposes meaningless in this worldview: should resource limits hinder our progress and forever-increasing prosperity, we will simply leave this planet for others.
Perhaps, rather than expending resources and time to identify low-resilience regimes as the authors suggest (that I would argue we are well into), we might be ahead by identifying what constitutes high-resilience behaviours and actions, encouraging the widespread adoption of these at this point in our journey, and attempting to ensure these are maintained in perpetuity. I know, I’m dreaming in technicolour here but it does align somewhat with what I’ve been advocating for some years now.
The best one might do given the circumstances of our existence is to encourage and facilitate the increasing need for one’s local community to be as self-sufficient/-reliant as is possible. Particularly in terms of food production, potable water procurement, and regional shelter needs.
We have no agency in what is happening globally, nationally, and/or province-/state-wide. Probably not even much, if any, in one’s local community depending upon its size and/or the people who compose it. Most people are caught up in day-to-day struggles and don’t even ponder the issues raised in this post. And in our so-called ‘advanced’ economies, the majority hold tightly to the mainstream belief that human ingenuity and technology will ‘solve’ our more pressing issues and predicaments, and they have no interest in simplifying their lifestyles or pursuing self-sufficiency.
The denial, bargaining, and purposeful ignorance among many in our complex societies is astounding…but not surprising given the human proclivity to suppress anxiety-provoking thoughts.
Only time will tell how this all unfolds but there’s nothing wrong with preparing for the worst by ‘collapsing now to avoid the rush’ and pursuing self-sufficiency. By this I mean removing as many dependencies on the Matrix as is possible and making do, locally. And if one can do this without negative impacts upon our fragile ecosystems or do so while creating more resilient ecosystems, all the better.
Building community (maybe even just household) resilience to as high a level as possible seems prudent given the uncertainties of an unpredictable future. There’s no guarantee it will ensure ‘recovery’ after a significant societal stressor/shock but it should increase the probability of it and that, perhaps, is all we can ‘hope’ for from its pursuit.
What Drives Societal Collapse?
H. Weiss and R.S. Bradley
Science, Jan. 26, 2001, New Series, Vol. 29, No. 5504, pp. 609-610
https://www.jstor.org/stable/3082228
The authors argue that there is a significant amount of archaeological evidence demonstrating rather quick collapse of past societies. While social, political, and economic factors have traditionally been identified as the root cause(s), increasing research and improved techniques are pointing the finger at abrupt climate events being a precipitating factor.
They cite several examples from across the planet and throughout the past 11,000 years where sudden changes in environmental conditions due to a changing climate led to settlement abandonment. They assert that “[m]any lines of evidence now point to climate forcing as the primary agent in repeated societal collapse.” (p. 610)
The climate during the past dozen or so millennia has tended to be viewed as relatively stable but paleoclimatic data is now showing this not to be true and that there was significant instability. This unstable situation appears to have repeatedly disrupted food production with societies unable to adapt to the rapidity, amplitude, and duration of the changing conditions.
Models of future change suggest that modern societies may face environmental shifts of even greater magnitude as a result of human activity and for a greatly increased and more dense population. And despite modern technology and industrial agriculture, many communities in the world continue to live as subsistence or small-scale agriculturalists who may be greatly affected by such changes.
The habit-tracking adaptations of past societies and communities will not be an option in our increasingly crowded world. Modern societies may have some advantage in their capacity to track these changes and possibly predict where issues may arise. The authors conclude by suggesting that data be used to design strategies to minimise the impacts of these shifting conditions otherwise unprecedented social disruptions are likely to occur.
The more detailed summary notes for this article can be found here.
Anticipating Societal Collapse; Hints From the Stone Age
M. Scheffer
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Vol. 113, No. 39 (September 27, 2016), pp. 10733-10735
https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.2307/26471823
New research has demonstrated that just prior to collapse prehistoric societies exhibit reduced resilience. Several examples are cited where growing societal stress caused by a variety of factors builds over a number of years/decades. This reduces the resilience of the society with a sudden stressor tipping it into a fairly abrupt collapse.
The author wonders if there may be indicators of such a loss of resilience that might signal that collapse is imminent and thereby provide some time to prepare.
This research is based upon systems theory that proposes subtle changes occur in a complex system’s dynamics as it approaches a tipping point. Systems naturally experience fluctuations in their conditions with fairly quick recovery when their resilience is high, but when their resilience is low recovery is much slower. When this occurs near a tipping point, the chances of “an avalanche of self-propelling change” increases. Tipping points, therefore, may be signalled by a noticeable loss in resilience. See Figure 1.
A 2016 paper by Downey et al. claims to have found evidence of such signalling about 8000 years ago. Agricultural societies that spread out from the Tigris-Euphrates region showed rapid growth followed by collapse with population densities just prior to collapse showing rising variance suggesting declining resilience. The data further shows a cyclical boom-bust cycle lasting 400-1000 years.
If it is a case of a user-resource cycle, the declining conditions should have alerted communities to alter their economies and institutions to adapt prior to collapse. However, a number of factors led to societies resisting the necessary change to avoid a crash (i.e., sunk-cost effect, bystander effect, vested interests). These factors may actually become stronger with a more complex and elaborate society.
It may be impossible for a society to avoid collapse via adaptation, if it is in a low-resilience situation. Identifying resilience indicators and scanning for them to determine a society’s level and vulnerability may be a useful endeavour.
The more detailed summary notes for this article can be found here.
If you’ve made it to the end of this contemplation and have got something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).
Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running).
If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing.
Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99
Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps…
https://paypal.me/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US
If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.
You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially Catton’s Overshoot and Tainter’s Collapse: see here.
Released September 30, 2024
It Bears Repeating: Best Of…Volume 2
A compilation of writers focused on the nexus of limits to growth, energy, and ecological overshoot.
With a Foreword by Erik Michaels and Afterword by Dr. Guy McPherson, authors include: Dr. Peter A Victor, George Tsakraklides, Charles Hugh Smith, Dr. Tony Povilitis, Jordan Perry, Matt Orsagh, Justin McAffee, Jack Lowe, The Honest Sorcerer, Fast Eddy, Will Falk, Dr. Ugo Bardi, and Steve Bull.
The document is not a guided narrative towards a singular or overarching message; except, perhaps, that we are in a predicament of our own making with a far more chaotic future ahead of us than most imagine–and most certainly than what mainstream media/politics would have us believe.
Click here to access the document as a PDF file, free to download.