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The Bulletin: June 19-25, 2025

The Bulletin: June 19-25, 2025

This past week’s articles of interest…

CLICK HERE

 

If you’re new to my writing, check out this overview.


Study finds planetary waves linked to wild summer weather have tripled since 1950

A.I. Is Poised to Rewrite History. Literally. – The New York Times

IEA Doubles Down On Peak Oil Demand Forecast | OilPrice.com

“Unconditional Surrender!” | ZeroHedge

What Should Individuals Do In A World Filled With Conflict?

A Brief Guide to Status Panic – Ecosophia

The War on Terrorism is Fabricated. “Iran is the Next Phase of this War”. Michel Chossudovsky – Global Research

Trump Has Reportedly Approved Iran Attack Plans But Is Withholding Final Order | ZeroHedge

Why You Should Hate the Rich Even More (w/ Rob Larson)

Demystifying the Dirty Dozen: Why Some Fruits and Vegetables Carry More Pesticides

Wheat and corn crops in Canada’s Prairies, U.S. Midwest could see biggest losses due to climate change | CBC News

‘Like everyone on the planet giving up breakfast’: Calories from food production set to plummet as the world heats up | CNN

What Should Individuals Do In a World In Conflict?

Returns on resilience – by Katharine Hayhoe

Kremlin Warns Against US Intervention In Iran, Tells Israeli Leaders ‘Come To Your Senses’ | ZeroHedge

Interior Dept. Proposes Opening Up 82 Percent Of Alaskan Petroleum Reserve | ZeroHedge

Canada’s Bill C‑2 Sparks Outcry Over Warrantless Data Access and Privacy Erosion

NIRP Is Back As Swiss National Bank Cuts Rates To Zero, Introduces Stealth Negative Rates | ZeroHedge

EXCLUSIVE: Leaked Emails Prove UK Gov’t Scripted TV Shows to Push Propaganda | Daily Pulse

U.S. And Europe Face 40% Drop In Food Production, Scientists Warn

‘Planet Wreckers’: 4 Rich Nations Plotting Nearly 70% of New Oil and Gas Over Next Decade | Common Dreams

The 10 Core Myths Still Taught in Business Schools

IAEA Chief Warns UN Security Council That Strike On Iran’s Bushehr Plant Would Create Nuclear Disaster | ZeroHedge

How Societies Morph With the Seasons

Alarming Fox Report Says Tactical Nukes ‘Not Off The Table’ For Trump’s Iran Response | ZeroHedge

Liebig’s Law applies

Loss of Narrative Control: How State Power Struggles Against Free Speech | ZeroHedge

How “Green” Wind and Solar Could Trash the Planet

A Long Overdue Reckoning – The Honest Sorcerer

“A Spectacular Military Success” – Trump Says ‘Bully’ Iran’s Nuclear Facilities Have Been “Completely & Totally Obliterated” | ZeroHedge

NO WAR: Avoiding Disaster at the End of Empire

Gas Stations Will Go Empty In The Days Ahead As Oil Supplies Collapse And Prices Skyrocket

Rule of Idiots – Read by Eunice Wong

Governments: Did We Ever Really Need Them? – George Tsakraklides

The U.S. Just Bombed Iran – Biocentric with Max Wilbert

The Half Life of Empire

Global Fertilizer Market Thrown In Chaos After Mideast War Shutters Iran Urea Production | ZeroHedge

Governments: Do We Ever Really Need Them?

It’s Official: We’re Back in the 1970s

The Big Beautiful Land Grab: Technocrats Stand To Profit As 250 Million Acre Bonanza Hidden In H.R.1 – Beef News

Iran Reportedly Agrees To Trump-Backed, Qatari-Mediated Ceasefire With Israel | ZeroHedge

Power Blackout Hits Parts Of Queens, NYC: Con Edison Urges Energy Conservation As Temps Spike | ZeroHedge

How Long Can the US Dollar Remain the Global Reserve Currency? – MishTalk

A Degrowth Coalition – by Matt Orsagh

The Debt Bomb | Art Berman

We are in societal and ecological collapse and there is no way out | by Saumya Sharma | Medium

Global Catastrophe Scenarios. The shorter (than Wikipedia article) of… | by Eric Lee | Jun, 2025 | Medium

The Atlantic’s chilling secret: A century of data reveals ocean current collapse | ScienceDaily

‘We will seize all 6 rivers’: Bilawal Bhutto says India’s Indus water cutoff is call for another war – BusinessToday

Russia’s Lavrov Says ‘WW3 Could Be Near’ After US Drawn In To Iran War | ZeroHedge

Is Life Now a Snack?

Spare Capacity | Do the Math

Brazil records 62% jump in area burned by forest fires: monitor

The Soils Of the World Are Losing Massive Amounts Of Moisture


If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).

Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running). 

If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing. 

Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99

Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps… 

https://paypal.me/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US 

If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.

You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.

 

The Bulletin: June 12-18, 2025

The Bulletin: June 12-18, 2025

This past week’s articles of interest…

CLICK HERE

If you’re new to my writing, check out this overview.


Australia – carbon bomber of the Indo-Pacific

The Gas Industry Is Redefining Methane as “Clean Energy”

The role of aerosol declines in recent warming

By Disaster Or Design

The Renewables Farce

US On High Alert In Anticipation Of Potential Israeli Strike On Iran, WaPo Reports | ZeroHedge

‘All US bases within our reach’: Iran responds to threats from Washington

Remember the Future?

Wealth – by Matt Orsagh – Degrowth is the Answer

Globalization End Game: How Localization Builds Resilient Communities & Economies

Why the Environment Always Loses

Putin Reminds West That Russia Has World’s Most Advanced Nuclear Weapons | ZeroHedge

Futurecasting: How Civilization Will Drive Off a Cliff in 2040 | by Julian Scaff | The Futureplex | May, 2025 | Medium

Trump Needs The Money Printer – by Quoth the Raven

Science Snippets: Human Activities Cause Inland Waters to Become Oxygen Sinks

The Folly of A War With Iran – The Chris Hedges Report

And So It Begins

Oklahoma’s loophole: How Tyson’s water use goes unchecked – Investigate Midwest

Collapse Part 4 / 5: Bargaining–Grasping At Reality

For the Love of God, Stop Recycling Plastic

Green New Steal Meets Drill Baby Drill: Farmland Caught In Crosshairs | ZeroHedge

When the Pentagon Orders Pay Attention

Geopolitical Fallout: China and Russia React to Middle East Conflagration

Trump Hints At ‘Possible’ US Entry Into War Amid Stepped-Up Israeli Daytime Attacks On Tehran | ZeroHedge

The Bull and the Crow

What if the ruling class finally realized that this civilization is over?

Moving Beyond Two Sides-ism – Charles Eisenstein

Cheap oil will come at a cost for the US | Semafor

WHERE TO DIG: Forging a Collapse-Aware Grower Community in the City, Suburb, or Country.

The End Of the Consumer Society and the Militarization of the Economy

Speech and Protest Won’t Work. Here’s What Will.

Chokepoint Watch: GPS Jamming Impacts Tankers Across Strait Of Hormuz | ZeroHedge

Trump Says US Forces ‘Could Get Involved’ as Israel Expands Deadly Assault on Iran | Common Dreams

Mossad spent ‘eight months’ preparing surprise attack against Iran: Report

Scientists looked back in time to find the first signs of human-caused global warming. It’s far earlier than previously thought | CNN

The Hands That Sustain Us: On Skill, Respect, and Gratitude

We Must Oppose War With Iran At The Top Of Our Lungs

After Iraq There’s No Excuse For Buying The War Lies About Iran

Japan Is Broke and Its America’s Problem

Report: How The United States is Months Away from Full Collapse | by HR NEWS | Jun, 2025 | Medium

Trump Demands “Unconditional Surrender” by Iran, Threatens to Enter the War – MishTalk


If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).

Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running). 

If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing. 

Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99

Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps… 

https://paypal.me/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US 

If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.

You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.

The Bulletin: April 24-30, 2025

The Bulletin: April 24-30, 2025

This past week’s articles of interest…

If you’re new to my writing, check out this overview.


Killing People by Lies: The New CO2 Campaign

$10T Money Print! Fed’s New Plan Will Dwarf Bernanke Era | ZeroHedge

The Wile E. Coyote Recession

How I Unintentionally Became an Urban Farmer

Banned DDT discovered in Canadian trout decades after use, research finds | Pollution | The Guardian

The Once and Future Nuke – by Albert Bates

By Disaster or Design – by Matt Orsagh

Rights of Nature as Direct Action to Confront Unjust Systems of Power

Brace for rapid changes in the economy; the world economy is reaching Limits to Growth

The 19 richest households in America added $1 trillion in wealth last year

Pakistan Warns Of ‘Act Of War’ After India Cancels Landmark Water Treaty | ZeroHedge

Kremlin Issues Nuclear Warning Aimed At West As Ukraine Peace Efforts Stall | ZeroHedge

Told You So. Trump’s Top Adviser Just Confirmed the Reset

Bringing Back the Rains To Southern Africa

“Fragile, impermanent things”: Joseph Tainter on what makes civilizations fall – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

Seeing lost winters, not just rising temperatures, shakes climate indifference

India Warned of ‘Act of War’ By Pakistan As Relations Collapse – Newsweek

India, Pakistan Trade Gunfire & Build-Up Militaries After Kashmir Terror Attack | ZeroHedge

There is No Way Out of This That Doesn’t Involve Money Printing | ZeroHedge

Major Iranian Port Paralyzed: 700 Injured, 5 Dead After Massive Explosion | ZeroHedge

“Take Control Of Their Food Supply”: Tractor Supply CEO Says Backyard Chicken Demand Skyrockets | ZeroHedge

Tensions over Kashmir and a warming planet have placed the Indus Waters Treaty on life support

Health Prepping: Seed Oils Are Poison

Energy transition: the end of an idea – by Chris Smaje

Thorium nuclear bombs and reactors have too many challenges – Peak Everything, Overshoot, & Collapse

How Much Is Enough? – Charles Hugh Smith’s Substack

Part 2: Interview With Just Collapse

Longtermism: The Key to Human Survival?

Resources and Our Future

Belligerence On ‘Energy Dominance’ Is Losing The U.S. Respect

It’s Always About the System

The CEOs of Walmart, Target, Home Depot Warn That Store Shelves All Over America Could Soon Be Empty

‘They Lied To Us About Iraq’s WMDs, But They’ve Taken It To Another Level With Ukraine…’; Hitchens | ZeroHedge

The Endlessness of a Temporary Tax – Doug Casey’s International Man

Population Control Versus Population Growth

William of Ockham and the Collapse Of Complexity: A Razor’s Edge for the End Times

Supply Chain Crisis Looms: Shortages Set to Slam Markets! | ZeroHedge

Product shortages and empty store shelves loom with falling shipments from China

How a solar storm could lead to a US nuclear disaster worse than Chernobyl | Mark Leyse | The Guardian


If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).

Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running). 

If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing. 

Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99

Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps… 

https://paypal.me/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US 

If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.

You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.

The Bulletin: April 10-16, 2025

The Bulletin: April 10-16, 2025

This past week’s articles of interest…


Living Without Fossil Fuels: How Living Energy Farm Created a Comfortable Off-Grid Lifestyle

German Journalist David Bendels Sentenced for Satirical Post Targeting Interior Minister Nancy Faeser

The Economics Of A Dying Empire

The Sharp Turn: Global Collapse Picks Up Speed

Uruguay – by Matt Orsagh – Degrowth is the Answer

New Trump Orders Aim to Keep Coal Power Alive, Despite Climate and Economic Costs

Economists now say a dire economic slowdown has already begun – MarketWatch

Street Medics For A Just Collapse

Trump Suggests Israel Would ‘Lead’ Possible Attack On Iran | ZeroHedge

Philosophical Reflections on Predicting the Future in an Age of Existential Threats | Collapse of Industrial Civilization

Contamination threatens the last source of clean groundwater in west New Mexico – High Country News

The Spiritual Poverty of Statism, Perpetual manufactured cultural adolescence and their ecological impacts

Water Wars, Begun They Have | ZeroHedge

We are losing soil moisture, why? – by Anastassia Makarieva

THE DEEPER DIVE: The Economic World Order Is Cracking up and Taking the Dollar Down with it

On the Path to War with Iran – Glenn Diesen’s Substack

Peak Population: The Global Reversal Unfolds – by Ugo Bardi

China Halts Rare Earth Exports Desperately Needed by the US – MishTalk

Why Bug Out States Are Not a Good Idea to Move Into

Canadian mayors push federal leaders for action on climate, not pipelines | CBC News

Fox Business pushes “clean coal” and other energy falsehoods to rally behind Trump’s so-called energy dominance plan | Media Matters for America

Trade, Tariffs, Currencies, Colonialism, the Gold Watch and Everything

Election 2025 Part One: Canadian Sovereignty at Stake! Interviews with Politicians and David Orchard. – Global Research

Putting the Earth Back in Model Land | Art Berman

As more communities have to consider relocation, we explore what happens to the land after people leave

Our World Is Paved With Indifference

A Byproduct of Manure Runoff Is Polluting Drinking Water in Thousands of US Communities, According to a New Report – Inside Climate News

How Modern Lifestyles Contribute to Disease – Global Research

No More Heroes Or Seeking Strong Gods

The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada, March 2025: Sales Plunge, Supply Surges, Overall Prices Drop to Multi-Year Lows, Driven by Toronto | Wolf Street


If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).

Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running). 

If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing. 

Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99

Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps… 

https://paypal.me/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US 

If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.

You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.

The Bulletin:  March 13-19, 2025

The Bulletin:  March 13-19, 2025

 


CLICK HERE


The Great Gas Pipeline Caper of 2025 – by Terry Cowan

BlackRock CEO Says American ‘Practicalism’ Can ‘Make Energy Great’ | The Epoch Times

Some Psychology for Responding To a World in Chaos

Can We Feed Ourselves Just out of Our Vegetable Gardens?

The Lost Art of Grieving: Grief as Ritual, Resistance, and Resilience

Welcome to the Era of Energy Realism – by Roger Pielke Jr.

We Have Even Less Time than We Thought to Get Ready for Collapse

Canada’s critical minerals and why Trump wants them

What about installing solar arrays on farms? Isn’t that a good use of land?

You’re Not Special

Acres of Amazon rainforest trees cut down to build road for climate summit

Eukaryotic phytoplankton decline due to ocean acidification could significantly impact global carbon cycle

‘The riskometer has been going up all the time’: Tim Lenton on tipping points – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

When Dissent Becomes a Crime: The War on Political Speech Begins – Global Research

Power and Control- The Vast Censorship Enterprise

The 2027 American War with Canada — A Soldier’s Perspective

The Ponzi Is Crumbling – by Lau Vegys

Mind-Boggling: Microplastics are Blotting Out Photosynthesis

The 7 Fundamental Drivers of Overshoot – by Nate Hagens

The twilight of American hegemony – Collapse Life

Surviving Collapse: Mobility

You’ve Got a Blackout in Pennsylvania | RealClearWire

Doug Casey on Fort Knox, Government Secrecy, and the True Role of Gold

9 Takeaways from the JP Morgan Chase Energy Study You Won’t Want to Miss

Many U.S. bird species seen as reaching population ‘tipping point’ – The Japan Times

Blooming Neo-Imperialism

Europe Faces Late-Winter Test to Its Energy System Resilience | OilPrice.com

Masters of the Universe

What’s the Difference Between “Surplus” and “Waste”? The Waste Is Waste High Quality of Life Economy.

The Global Reset: Energy, Geopolitics, and Market Upheaval | Art Berman

Throwing the Monkey Wrench Into the System

A Civilisation Built on Conflict and Supremacy – George Tsakraklides

Alexa’s Privacy Backtrack: Amazon Pushes All Voice Data to the Cloud

“Beyond Reasonable Doubt”: Former MI6 Head Told Boris Johnson COVID-19 “Was Engineered In The WIV” | ZeroHedge

Degrowth: Sanity in Spiraling Chaos – by Geoffrey Deihl

Saudi Aramco, IEA Chiefs Clash In Houston Over the Future of Oil

Accelerationism

US Treasury Slashes Cash Reporting Threshold to $200, Expanding Financial Surveillance in Border Areas

Trump Is Now At War With Iran

In likely message to Iran, Israeli and US air forces carry out joint drill with heavy bomber | The Times of Israel

US wild bird populations continue steep decline | Climate & Capitalism

Jeff Currie’s “New Joule Order”—A Compelling but Flawed Energy Framework | Art Berman

The Ball Comes to Rest | Do the Math

Trump Says He’s Authorizing Use of Coal for Energy Production | The Epoch Times

Is 100 Years Of Cheap Food Coming To An End?

Shut Up About Trump, It’s Not Resistance

Trump Positions US Military For Imminent War With Iran


If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).

Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running). 

If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing. 

Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99

Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps… 

https://paypal.me/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US 

If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.

You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.

The Bulletin: January 9-15, 2025

The Bulletin: January 9-15, 2025

The Falsification of Everything | how to save the world

Emissions Are SO Not the Only Problem with Cars

Rhyming History: Weimar Germany’s Hyperinflation

At least 6 dead, more than 300 000 without power as major winter storm sweeps through U.S.

Net Energy Cliff & the Collapse of Civilization

Quarter of Freshwater Animals Face Extinction, New Study Warns – Newsweek

A Nickel Rush Threatens Indonesia’s Last Nomadic Tribes and Its Forests, Fishermen and Farmers – Inside Climate News

Arresting and Killing Greenies: Targeting Climate Change Protests – Global Research

The Science of Anti-Russian Propaganda – by Glenn Diesen

Decoupling what!? – by Gunnar Rundgren

One Way or Another, the World is Headed for a Degrowth Future | by Doug Bierend

The UK’s Strange Collapse – John Rubino’s Substack

Trump’s Threats Against Greenland, Canada and Elsewhere Are All About Energy Interests – Global Research

Positioned For a Historic Crash – The Daily Reckoning

Natural Gas Production is Contracting

The blackouts are coming – by Elisabeth Robson

The Energy March of Folly | Art Berman

Government Spending Will Cause the Next Financial Crisis | Mises Institute

America’s Great Climate Migration Has Begun. Here’s What You Need to Know. | Columbia Magazine

From Crisis to Connection: Why Radio is the Lifeline You Need to Learn Now

#296: Predicament, not outcome | Surplus Energy Economics

Escobar: Empire Of Chaos, Reloaded | ZeroHedge

The Human Souffle – The Honest Sorcerer

Oh, YouWhat the world needs now is directions for reducing our dependence on technology

Grabbing Greenland’s Oil. But does it Exist? – by Ugo Bardi Mean THAT Democracy | how to save the world

The adverse, long-term health effects of wildfires

Have You Been Faked Out by the Panama-Canada-Greenland Syndrome? – Global Research

What If Tech, the Market and the State Are No Longer Solutions?

Russia, Iran To Sign ‘Comprehensive Strategic Partnership’ Treaty This Week | ZeroHedge

Extreme rainfall leaves 10 dead in Ipatinga, Minas Gerais, Brazil – The Watchers

Thrust Into Power: A Thought Experiment | how to save the world

Never Mind the Propaganda, the World Should Know About America’s Countless Wars – Global Research

Chapter 3 – How energy and natural resources inhibit growth

Going, Going…

Los Angeles burns: What you need to know

Credit Card Default Wave Hits U.S. Banks

2025: The Year the Federal Debt Bubble Bursts – International Man

Cool Nights Needed to Grow Potatoes Slipping Away

Houthis Warn Drone & Missile Attack Coverage Expanding To Mediterranean Sea

Houthis Warn Drone & Missile Attack Coverage Expanding To Mediterranean Sea

Yahya Saree, spokesperson for the Iranian-backed Houthi terror group, declared in a televised speech to supporters at a Friday rally in Al-Sabeen Square, Sana, that they intend to target Israel-linked ships in the eastern Mediterranean. The risk of conflict spilling over from the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden remains high.

“We will target any ship heading to Israeli ports in the Mediterranean, in any area we are able to reach,” Saree said. 

Given that the eastern Mediterranean is 1,900 kilometers (1,180 miles) from Yemen, this may indicate that the conflict area is broadening, triggering a new escalation of the multi-month war.

Fernando Ferreira, energy analyst at Rapidan Energy Group, noted:

“The Houthi nuisance continues, but they are at the limit of their ability to cause disruptions. The real risk of escalation comes from Israeli retaliation on IRGC officers/assets helping the Houthis.”

This comes as Houthis have attacked dozens of Western and Israel-linked commercial vessels and military ships across the southern Red Sea, Bab al-Mandab Strait, Gulf of Aden, and even the Strait of Hormuz since last November. The group claims these maritime attacks are in solidarity with the Palestinians in Gaza.

Saree warned if the Israel Defense Forces launched an attack on the southern Gaza city of Rafah, where hundreds of thousands of Palestinians are sheltering from the seven-month-long war. They would’ve no other choice but to impose sanctions on all ships of the companies that are supplying Israel and entering Israeli ports.

What’s clear—and the West won’t like it—is that the Houthis appear to be expanding their attack coverage as numerous maritime chokepoints in the region are under constant threat.

We pointed out Thursday that Operation Prosperity Guardian, the US-led maritime coalition launched by the Biden administration earlier this year, has been largely a failure.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Will Israel “Do the Dirty Work for Us”? Towards Military Escalation? “Theater Iran Near Term (TIRANNT)”? The War on Iran is No Longer On Hold?

Author’s Update

In recent developments, in response to Israel’s bombing of Iran’s Consulate in Damascus, according to media reports:

Iran has launched more than 300 cruise and ballistic missiles and drones at Israel, IDF officials said, a retaliatory attack weeks after an Israeli strike on the Iranian consular building in Syria killed two of Tehran’s top commanders.

“There were explosions visible in the air over Jerusalem as air sirens rang throughout the country.”

“Iran said that after tonight’s attack, the “matter can be deemed concluded” unless there is more violence.”

“Doing the Dirty Work For Us”

The fundamental question is whether this retaliatory attack will lead to escalation, including an Israeli counter-attack on Iran.

In this regard, Israel is largely serving the strategic interests of  the U.S. acting on behalf of Washington. 

The dirty work concept is embedded in U.S foreign policy.

Let your allies do the Dirty Work for You. The Israeli attack against the Iran Consulate in Damas was conducted in consultation with Washington. 

The geopolitical and strategic implications as well as the probability of a retaliation by Iran had been carefully analyzed. 

Let’s be under no illusions. The use of nuclear weapons by Israel in response to Iran’s retaliation is being discussed behind closed doors both in Tel Aviv and in Washington. That does not mean that it is contemplated as an option. 

Déjà Vu

It is worth noting that at the outset of Bush’s Second Term, Vice President Dick Cheney dropped a bombshell, hinting, that Israel would, so to speak: be doing the dirty work for us (paraphrase) without US military involvement and without us putting pressure on them “to do it”.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Iran Vs Israel: What Happens Next Now That Shots Have Been Fired?

Iran Vs Israel: What Happens Next Now That Shots Have Been Fired?

In October of 2023 in my article ‘It’s A Trap! The Wave Of Repercussions As The Middle East Fights “The Last War”’ I predicted that a multi-front war was about to develop between Israel and various Muslim nations including Lebanon and Iran. I noted:

Israel is going to pound Gaza into gravel, there’s no doubt about that. A ground invasion will meet far more resistance than the Israelis seem to expect, but Israel controls the air and Gaza is a fixed target with limited territory. The problem for them is not the Palestinians, but the multiple war fronts that will open up if they do what I think they are about to do (attempted sanitization). Lebanon, Iran and Syria will immediately engage and Israel will not be able to fight them all…”

So far, both Lebanon and Iran have directly engaged Israeli military forces and civilian targets. Syrian militias are also declaring they will once again start attacking US military bases in the region. In my article ‘World War III Is Now Inevitable – Here’s Why It Can’t Be Avoided’ published on April 5th I noted that:

I warned months ago…that the war in Gaza would expand into a multi-front conflict that would probably include Iran. I also warned that it would be to Israel’s benefit if Iran entered the war because this would eventually force the US to become directly involved. To be sure, Iran has already been engaging in proxy attacks on Israel through Lebanon, but Israel’s attack on the Iranian “embassy” or diplomatic station in Syria basically ensures that Iran will now directly commit to strikes on Israeli targets.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

 

Oil Markets Were Unwise But Right in the Israel-Iran Crisis

Energy Blog

The Middle East seemed to be on the brink of war last week and oil prices fell. Was the market wrong?

Brent futures price closed at $90.45 per barrel on Friday, April 12 before Iran’s missile and drone attack on Israel (Figure 1). When markets opened on Monday, April 15, prices rose less than $1 before ending lower and closing at $90.02 on Tuesday. After Israel’s counter-attack on Friday, April 19, Brent rose from $86.96 to almost $91 only to close at $87.29.

Brent futures price fell -$3.16 (-3%) from $90.45 to $87.29 for the week ending April 19
Figure 1. Brent futures price fell -$3.16 (-3%) from $90.45 to $87.29 for the week ending April 19. Source: CME & Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

This seems remarkable considering that oil flows through the Persian Gulf could have been disrupted. About 15.5 mmb/d (million barrels per day) of crude oil pass through the Strait of Hormuz (Figure 2). There’s an additional 5 mmb/d of refined products, and 10 bcf of liquefied natural gas.

Crude oil volumes that passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the first half of 2023.
Figure 2. Crude oil volumes that passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the first half of 2023. Source: Modified from @Nate Hagens with EIA data & Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

There was a time when military outbreaks in the Middle East would have caused a sharp increase in world oil prices. Figure 3 shows a comparison of Brent price in the one hundred days following the 1990 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and after the 2023 Hamas attacks on Israel.

Figure 3. Comparison of Brent price in the one hundred days following the 1990 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and after the 2023 Hamas attacks on Israel. Source: Bloomberg and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.
Figure 3. Comparison of Brent price in the one hundred days following the 1990 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and after the 2023 Hamas attacks on Israel. Source: @johnauthers (Bloomberg) and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

It’s worth pointing out that there is no major oil production in Israel or in surrounding countries. The involvement of Iran in the recent conflict, however, makes these two events comparable at least in the last few weeks.

There are a slew of mainstream narratives for oil market’s phlegmatic reaction to recent attacks in the Middle East.

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Israel’s strike on Iran: Crisis shows how badly Iran and Israel understand each other

Israel’s strike on Iran: Crisis shows how badly Iran and Israel understand each other

Reuters An Israeli air force jetReuters
Israel says it will defend itself against Iran – but its allies want to avoid a wider Middle East war

Israel’s attack on Iran was not the fierce response that US President Joe Biden and other western leaders had feared.

They have been urging Israel to draw a line under the dangerous series of events that started with Israel’s assassination of a senior Iranian general in Damascus on 1 April.

More than six months after the Hamas attacks on Israel, war continues in Gaza and has spread to the area either side of the Lebanon-Israel border and to the Gulf.

The fear is that the Middle East is on the brink of an all-out war, with global as well as regional dangers.

The Iranians are playing down the significance of what’s happened in Isfahan.

Initial reports said there had been no attack. Later, an analyst on state TV said air defences had knocked out drones that had been launched by “infiltrators”.

Official media outlets have posted jokey photos of miniature drones.

Israel was responding to the attack last Saturday from Iran. Despite years of enmity and threats it was the first time since the establishment of the Islamic Republic in 1979 that Iran had launched a direct strike from its territory onto Israel’s.

During that attack Iran launched more than 300 missiles and drones. Almost all of them were destroyed by Israel’s air defences, augmented by forces from the US, UK and Jordan.

The Iranians had made their intentions clear, giving Israel and its allies time to prepare themselves, and quickly issued a statement at the UN in New York that their retaliation was over.

Mr Biden urged Israel to “take the win” but Israel insisted it would hit back.

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Israeli Missiles Hit Iran, the Price of Oil Jumps 3 Percent

In a game of tit for tat, Israel strikes back at Iran for Iran’s missile launch against Israel. Iran’s attack on Israel was in response for Israel illegally striking an Iranian embassy in Syria.

Israeli Missiles Hit Site in Iran

The NPR reports Israel launches missile strikes into Iran in response to Tehran’s attack Sunday

Reuters reports Israeli Missiles Hit Site in Iran.

Israeli missiles have hit a site in Iran, ABC News reported late on Thursday, citing a U.S. official, while Iranian state media reported an explosion in the center of the country, days after Iran launched a retaliatory drone strike on Israel.

Iran’s Fars news agency said an explosion was heard at an airport in the central city of Isfahan but the cause was not immediately known. Iran suspended flights over the cities of Isfahan, Shiraz and Tehran, state media reported.

Several Iranian nuclear sites are located in Isfahan province, including Natanz, centerpiece of Iran’s uranium enrichment program.

Some Emirates and Flydubai flights that were flying over Iran early on Friday made sudden sharp turns away from the airspace, according to flight paths shown on tracking website Flightradar24.

Israeli Missile Hits Iran, U.S. Officials Confirm

CBS reports Israeli Missile Hits Iran, U.S. Officials Confirm

Two U.S. officials confirm to CBS News that an Israeli missile has hit Iran. The strike follows last weekend’s retaliatory drone and missile attack against Israel, which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had vowed to respond to.

Officials were tightlipped about the location or extent of the Israeli strike. When reached by CBS News, the Israeli Defense Forces had no comment on the attack.

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Almost Everything is About Oil in the Middle East

Energy Aware

Perhaps the most extraordinary part of Iran’s April 13 attack on Israel was that it was countered by a coalition that included Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). It is also noteworthy that this was the first time that the United States engaged militarily in Israel’s defense.

The events of April did not begin with the October 6, 2023 strike on Israel from Gaza but have their origins decades earlier. It is now evident, however, that the catalyst for Hamas’ attack was the impending normalization of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel.

This would have had significant consequences for Israel’s oil supply, an important aspect of the present crisis that is rarely discussed by the press or politicians. Almost everything is about oil in the Middle East.

The Saudis were ready to join the Abraham Accords that in 2020 established ties between the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, Morocco and Israel on regional security and trade.

As a direct consequence, Israel was officially moved under the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility in early 2021, shifting from its decades-long alignment with the U.S. European Command (EUCOM).

The timing of the Gaza incursion into Israel in October was designed to prevent Saudi Arabia from joining the Abraham Accords.

It is hardly a coincidence that Houthi attacks on shipping in the Suez Canal and the Red Sea started in November. Almost 9 million barrels of oil per day (mmb/d) pass through the Canal and the Bab al-Mandab Strait.

It’s worth recalling that the Houthis have been in an armed conflict with Saudi Arabia in Yemen since 2015, and were responsible for attacking the main Saudi refinery complex in 2019. Both Hamas and the Houthis, along with Hezbollah in Lebanon, are funded and largely directed by Iran.

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Iran on the Rise: Retaliation, “Important Military Targets”. Peter Koenig

The warning was on the wall. Ever since Israel attacked “out of the blue” on 1 April 2024 the Iranian Consulate in Damascus, Syria, killing 7, including two generals, an Iranian retaliation was to be expected. 

The New York Times (NYT) reports

“Iran mounted an immense aerial attack on Israel on Saturday night, launching more than 200 drones [other sources talk about 300 drones] and missiles in retaliation for a deadly Israeli airstrike in Syria two weeks ago, and marking a significant escalation in hostilities between the two regional foes.” 

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) say there were over 300 areal threats, including some 200 drones, 100 ballistic missiles, and 30 cruise missiles. See this.

Israel and her Western friends claim that many of the drones were intercepted by IDF and the help from allied military support. The latter apparently include the UK, France, and Jordan – and most likely also US-NATO forces that have long been stationed in the region.

Nevertheless, according to several RT reports, a large-scale missile and drone attack against Israel has been a success, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has said in a statement published by IRNA news agency. The Islamic Republic’s military managed to “hit and destroy” some “important military targets,” it added, without providing any further details.

Short video clips published by Iranian media on social networks, viewing Islamic Republic’s missiles hitting their targets in Israel. Several missiles appeared to have been striking targets in a settlement, RT reports, however without being able to confirm the veracity of the clips.

The Guardian informs, that it was the Islamic Republic’s first-ever direct attack on the Jewish State, a development that brings the two countries to the brink of all-out conflict after more than a decade of shadow war and soaring stress six months into Israel’s war in Gaza, following the Hamas attack last October.

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Europe’s Metacrisis Just Got Worse

Energy Contrarian Featured Image

The latest conflict between Iran and Israel just made Europe’s already precarious energy and economic situation a lot worse.

Many analysts and politicians are celebrating Europe’s resilience after losing its natural gas supply from Russia.

“Two years on from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, trade in energy products between Russia and the European Union has largely disappeared. The EU has adapted remarkably well to a decoupling that many would have considered impossible.”

Bruegel

There is some truth here but it misses the larger picture. In the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the world has witnessed a major shift in its geopolitical, economic, and social order. These changes have had a particularly large effect in Europe. Events in the Middle East make things even worse.

The Covid-19 Pandemic in 2020 resulted in a re-arrangement of supply chains and trade dependencies, prompting countries to consider the vulnerabilities inherent in globalized production networks. The era of unipolar dominance by the United States has given way to a more multipolar world. The traditional alliances and partnerships that underpinned the post-World War II order are unraveling.

Just before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China and Russia issued a joint statement declaring that their partnership had “no limits” in opposing NATO expansion. They further stated their intention to reshape the global governance system to be more representative of the changing global landscape, challenging the current US-dominated world order.

In early 2024, the BRICS group of emerging-market nations—Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa–expanded to include Saudi Arabia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Ethiopia and Egypt. These countries now hold a dominant position on more than half of the global oil exports, with major implications for oil prices and energy geopolitics…

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