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The Bulletin: May 15-21, 2025

The Bulletin: May 15-21, 2025

This past week’s articles of interest…


If you’re new to my writing, check out this overview.


Pharaohs to AI: The Long Ascent of the Superorganism | Art Berman

No Economies Without Biodiversity: Why Our Markets Rely on the Complexity of Nature

Wetlands Disappearing Three Times Faster than Forests | UNFCCC

Intensive farming depletes European and UK soils, weakening climate defenses – EHN

6 Warning Signs of a Looming Epic Economic Collapse – Prepper1cense

The UK Is Heading For a Full-Blown Financial Crash

How Much Oil Can We Burn?

Anthropocentric Narratives and Bargaining

Water Wars: One-Fifth Of Pakistan’s Electricity Comes From Hydro | ZeroHedge

Why None of These People Will Ever Talk to You About Overpopulation. – George Tsakraklides

New Analysis Reveals Glacier Retreat Will Lead To Loss Of Biodiversity As Vital Habitats For Specialist Species Disappear

‘We are witnessing ecocide’: Santander accused of funding vast deforestation

Peak oil returns

#303 At the End of Modernity, Part Two

“Collapse” is unevenly distributed

Global recycling rates have fallen for eighth year running, report finds

Everglades dry up as worst drought since 2012 lingers in Florida – UPI.com

Serious problem’: Kabul losing race against water shortages – World – DAWN.COM

The New Dark Age

Jean-Marc Jancovici — Sobriété vs Poverty: Preparing for a New Cultural Paradigm | The Great Simplification

Living with Collapse – The Honest Sorcerer

The AI Colossus Is Rapidly Enveloping the World

On the Scientific Essence Of Dr. James Hansen’s Recent Appeal

Living with Uncertainty: Rethinking Truth in a Quantum World | Art Berman

How much land do we have to restore to bring back the rain?

The Fourth Turning is Here | Neil Howe Explains What Comes Next

The Shock of Waking Up in Carney’s Canada – Global Research

Goldman Raises Oil Demand Outlook | OilPrice.com

How Farmers Defeat the Empire

A new cold war is brewing over rare earth minerals | The Verge

Global Hunger Rises for 6th Consecutive Year in a ‘World Dangerously off Course’: UN Report – EcoWatch

Deforestation Is Reducing Rainfall in the Amazon – Eos

Operation Northwoods

Banks Are Hiding This: This Isn’t a Recession… It’s a Reset I Francis Hunt

Boomers, Let’s Face It: The Math Doesn’t Work


If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).

Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running). 

If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing. 

Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99

Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps… 

https://paypal.me/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US 

If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.

You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.

 

Today’s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh CCIII–We Must Destroy the Earth To Save It

Today’s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh CCIII–
We Must Destroy the Earth To Save ItIf you’re new to my writing, check out this synopsis.


As I have done a handful of times in the past, I offer some conversations I had with others regarding a post shared on Facebook. Take from it what you will…

I would love to hear from some readers their thoughts on the subject.


The post by: WH – Permaculture Apprentice 

Some good news, but note that much of this growth has been driven by China, which by 2023 accounted for about 43% of the cumulative installed capacity worldwide.


Me: Great news for those who own: the land that the finite resources must be extracted from; the mining companies that perform the extraction; the refineries that process the minerals; the industries that produce the technologies; the retailers that sell the products; [Also]: the installers; those who maintain them; the financiers who create the debt to support all the above; and the governments who tax everything and need the continued growth to support the gargantuan Ponzi that is the financialised economy they have helped create. Not so great for our sensitive and fragile ecosystems that suffer from the continuing extractive and exploitive processes these industrial technologies require.

NP: SB, Steve just found out what it takes to build stuff, but he’s only mad about this particular thing.

Me: NP,  Industrial technologies, all of them, are detrimental to our ecosystems. I never claimed otherwise.

AD: SB, no, they are not. They only do so because human consumers demand energy, goods and services

Me: AD, So, only human demand motivates industry? Not profit?

JT: SB, you should raise a support ticket with Meta as the last 4 characters of your surname are not showing

Me: JT, Please prove me wrong.

AD: SB, only shareholders demand profits. All shareholders are ultimately humans.

SL: SB, you just described fossil fuels

Me: SL, Agreed. And let’s also not lose sight of the fact that massive amounts of hydrocarbons are required for these ‘renewables’.

LB: SB,  ,,,you “lost sight” when you ignored full lifecycle accounting of grams CO2/kWh.
Grams CO2/kWh:
Off Shore Wind 9
Onshore Wind 10
Hydroelectric 11
Run of the river 200kW 13
Solar PV 32
Geothermal 38
Nuclear 90-140 (highly dependent on fuel ore quality)
Methane gas peakers 500
Fuel cell 662
Methane gas 443 (excluding leaks)
Scrubbed coal 960 (excluding mine methane leaks)

MD: SB, I just brought 36 panels. 6mm thick glass. no frame.. so mostly made of sand… when done. they grind back to sand or recycle..

Me: MD, Aside from the issue of entropy, recycling is energy intensive, creates ecologically-destructive pollutants and toxins, and ineffective for parts of the panel, the charge controllers, and inverters. And then there’s the battery issues…‘Renewables’ are no panacea and are, in fact, additive to our energy consumption.

MD: SB, running our house on old batteries. cost not much and saves a bunch.. seem to be getting value them..

Me: MD, Now, scale the production of your items up to meet the needs of everyone on the planet. Then factor in that current electric needs are a tiny fraction of the power required to support the complexities of modernity for 8+ billion.

LB: SB, …those are all lame opinions.

Me: LB, Once again we will have to agree to disagree. Perhaps peruse physicist Dr Tom Murphy’s work on the math behind why ‘renewables’ won’t ‘save’ humanity, but instead help us destroy the planet. Perhaps start with this one: https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/…/08/mm-11-renewable-salvation/

LB: SB, …no. It is your claim. I don’t have to do the work of figuring out why you like degrowth.

If we are playing “appeal to authority” here is who supports AGW:
–every scientific institution on Earth in every scientific discipline. Individual scientists are just people until they falsify journal literature. And there is 200 years of journal literature on AGW.
–195 nations of Earth as members of the Paris Accord 2050 Net Zero plan.
–195 nations of Earth as members of the IPCC.
–All the O&G executive who confessed in US Congressional testimony to having lied and obfuscated their role and contribution to AGW so as to hinder RE and the remedy of AGW. We have their internal memos.
That leaves you with nothing.

DT: SB, yea ignore the oil man who does the same thing lmfao. Ignore the tailpipes making the only habitable planet man knows of becoming less habitable.
-Ignore the last oil platform, tanker, or pipeline disaster.
-The solar panels and wind turbines are recycled.

Me: DT, Where do I ignore such things. Hydrocarbon extraction and use is highly problematic for the planet, and it has helped to put our species into ecological overshoot. I have never said anything positive about them or favoured their use. But I am also not blind to the significant destruction being wrought via the production of ‘renewables’.

DT: SB, renewables are definitely the lesser of two evils

Me: DT, But one of the significant issues (of many) that the ‘renewables’ faithful ignore is that their power generation is additive to our energy needs; in fact, the growth of them over the past few decades is not even keeping pace with the growth in energy demand resulting in increasing hydrocarbon extraction and use. In other words, we are painting ourselves further and further into a corner…

DT: SB, do u refer to the making of them? Yes unfortunately ai has taken up any benefits of renewable installations. Not sure what to say other than putting limits on ai installations and scaling up of renewable energy sources. Do u have any solutions?

Me: DT, The issue far predates AI. And this is a predicament not a solvable problem. I have long advocated that local communities relocalize as much as possible, but especially food production, potable water procurement, and regional shelter needs to be as self-sufficient as possible then cross your fingers. Modernity cannot be saved.

DT: SB, I agree modern man’s ways are not sustainable.

Me: DT, Every experiment our species has attempted in large, complex societies has failed. Every. One. Throw the predicament of ecological overshoot on top of that recurring phenomenon and the writing is on the wall. Unfortunately, most adhere to a faith in technological ‘solutions’ (that are simply expediting our collapse this time around, and overshoot—and are being pushed by the world’s profiteers and snake oil salesmen), and rather than move through the grieving stages to acceptance, they remain stuck in denial and bargaining arguing over ways to sustain the unsustainable.

LB: SB, …there! You made a verifiable claim.
So what counts as evidence, and how does the evidence verify that “the growth of them [RE] over the past few decades is not even keeping pace with the growth in energy demand resulting in increasing hydrocarbon extraction and use. In other words, we are painting ourselves further and further into a corner…”
It is empirically clear that RE is 30% of all electrical energy now, trending to 50% in 2035 and 90% by 2050. RE typically adds two GW per day of load following capacity. It is also empirically clear that unless address AGW by 2050, our current societal, ecological, and industrial vectors will be terminally disrupted.
And where in your degrowth agenda do you address the 4-5 billion new middle class of the 2050s?
Degrowthers never have a plan for anything. They just harp on the Fallacy of Perfection as if all growth in civilization and science is terminally extractive.

LB: SB, ….more opinions. Still no evidence. Never any comparisons. Never a reasoned plan for anything.

LB: ….all fair critique requires evidence based comparison to alternatives. LCoE, final phase ERoI, grams CO2/kWh, externalized social cost, retail $/kWh, upstream fuel and water infrastructure, downstream waste and pollution management, and a hundred other things you either ignore or gloss over with opinion.

Me: LB, There’s plenty of research showing the negative environmental impacts of ‘renewables’ production; particularly beyond the carbon tunnel vision most view the issue from.

LB: SB, …no there isn’t any such journal research. NONE. You can’t produce it. And you weaken your claim further by resorting to ad hominem characterization. I offered several terms of comparison. Which ones are you using?

Me: LB, So, you are claiming that there is no peer-reviewed evidence showing that there are negative consequences to the industrial production of technologies? On this, we will have to disagree.

And, I would suggest that you get a better handle on what the logical fallacy of ad hominem is—it is not arguing that most people fail to acknowledge the ecological destruction caused by the production of ‘renewables’ beyond the one of carbon emissions.

LB: SB, …ad hominem is personal characterization as an argument against fact. I gave you several measures of COMPARISON for renewables vs. legacy power. You can’t apply any of them. If you also chose the Fallacy of Perfection and Unreasonable Expectations, then you add another flaw to your claim.
For context, fossil extraction today is 535 times greater than that of all renewables tech materials… as fossil at 15 billion tons per year… and RE peaking in the 2040s at 28 million tons per year. But after the 2040s, most all new renewables will be made from recycled renewables. The one-time production of renewables technology is thus superior to the recurring commodity cost of fuel based generation, its upstream fuel and water supply infrastructure, and its downstream waste and pollution cost management. ….just for starters.

Me: LB, Please show me where I attacked any person’s character.

LB: SB, ..you don’t recognize your accusations of criminal behavior?

Me: LB, What on earth are you referring to?

LB: SB, ..these are your accusations of criminal and antisocial behavior, for which you provide zero evidence, reasoning, or comparative critique. Because you cannot do so.
“…governments who tax everything and need the continued growth to support the gargantuan Ponzi that is the financialised economy they have helped create. Not so great for our sensitive and fragile ecosystems that suffer from the continuing extractive and exploitive processes these industrial technologies require….”

Me: LB, Governments do tax all the activities I listed. A financialised economy that governments have helped to create and that requires perpetual growth (increasingly through the creation of debt/credit) fits the definition of a Ponzi scheme. So where is the personal attack in that statement?

BTW, I am finished discussing this with you today. I have far better things to do, such as get all my seedlings into my ever-expanding food gardens.

LB: SB, Ponzi schemes are illegal and antisocial. You paint all government, regulation, investment, industry, science, and technology with the same brush of immoral behavior. That not only makes discourse impossible, it renders your claims ridiculous. In fact, all professions are based on altruistic service to society. All members in violation are decertified. See any code of professional conduct.

[Insert laugh track here!!]


WL: SB, from the same guy that will swear that humans have no effect on the climate when talking about fossil fuels.

Me: WL, And I say this where? I am not and never have been in favour of hydrocarbon extraction and use, but I am also not blind to the ecological destruction that occurs with the creation of ‘renewables’.


GG: SB, Oli companies are no profit institutions

Me: GG, Of course they are. I never claimed otherwise.


DM: SB, you mean the oil companies?

Me: DM, Well, oil companies are huge investors in ‘renewables’. And the production of ‘renewables’ requires massive amounts of hydrocarbons.

DM: SB, well that’s an interesting take, but it’s actually rather like your name….

Me: DM, Do some research.

From the Large Language Model AI DeepSeek:
“Yes, many **large oil companies** have invested in **renewable energy**—though the extent and motivations vary. Here’s a breakdown:
**Major Oil Companies & Their Renewable Investments**

– **BP**
– Plans to invest **$7–9 billion annually** in renewables (wind, solar, biofuels, EV charging) by 2030.
– Aims for **50 GW of renewable capacity** by 2030 (up from ~3.4 GW in 2022).
– Acquired **Lightsource BP** (solar) and invested in offshore wind (e.g., **Empire Wind** in the U.S.).

– **Shell**
– Targets **$10–15 billion** in low-carbon energy (2023–2025), including wind, solar, hydrogen, and CCS.
– Developing **offshore wind farms** (e.g., **Hollandse Kust Noord** in the Netherlands).
– Expanding EV charging networks (e.g., **Shell Recharge**).

– **TotalEnergies**
– Plans to invest **$5 billion/year** in renewables (mostly solar & wind) by 2030.
– Owns **Total Eren** (solar/wind developer) and has stakes in **Adani Green Energy**.
– Expanding battery storage and renewable hydrogen.

– **ExxonMobil & Chevron (More Cautious Approach)**
– **ExxonMobil** focuses on **carbon capture (CCS), hydrogen, and algae biofuels** rather than wind/solar.
– **Chevron** invests in **renewable fuels (biofuels) and hydrogen**, with limited wind/solar exposure.

– **Equinor (Formerly Statoil)**
– Leading in **offshore wind** (e.g., **Hywind Scotland**, the world’s first floating wind farm).
– Plans to spend **$23 billion on renewables by 2026**.”

“Yes, the production of **renewable energy technologies** currently relies on **hydrocarbons (fossil fuels)** at various stages, from raw material extraction to manufacturing and transportation. Here’s how:

### **1. Key Renewable Energy Technologies & Their Fossil Fuel Dependencies**

**A. Solar Panels**
– **Polysilicon Production:** Requires high heat (~1,000°C), often generated using **natural gas or coal** (especially in China, where ~80% of solar panels are made).
– **Materials:** Silver (conductive paste), aluminum (frames), and glass all involve mining and refining—energy-intensive processes often powered by fossil fuels.
 **Transportation:** Shipping panels globally relies on **diesel-powered ships and trucks**.

**B. Wind Turbines**
– **Steel & Concrete:** Turbine towers and foundations require vast amounts of steel (made using **coking coal**) and cement (a major CO₂ emitter).
– **Fiberglass & Carbon Fiber:** Derived from petroleum-based resins.
– **Rare Earth Metals:** Neodymium and dysprosium (for magnets) are mined and processed using fossil fuels.

**C. Batteries (For EVs & Grid Storage)**
– **Lithium, Cobalt, Nickel Mining:** Heavy machinery runs on diesel; refining is energy-intensive.
– **Electrolyte & Plastics:** Derived from petrochemicals.

**D. Hydrogen (Green vs. Blue/Gray)**
– **”Green” Hydrogen** (made via electrolysis using renewables) still often depends on fossil fuels for:
– Electrolyzer manufacturing (steel, plastics).
– Transport (compressed H₂ may use methane-derived energy).
– **”Blue” Hydrogen** is made from **natural gas + carbon capture**, keeping fossil fuels in the loop.”


What is going to be my standard WARNING/ADVICE going forward and that I have reiterated in various ways before this:

“Only time will tell how this all unfolds but there’s nothing wrong with preparing for the worst by ‘collapsing now to avoid the rush’ and pursuing self-sufficiency. By this I mean removing as many dependencies on the Matrix as is possible and making do, locally. And if one can do this without negative impacts upon our fragile ecosystems or do so while creating more resilient ecosystems, all the better. 

Building community (maybe even just household) resilience to as high a level as possible seems prudent given the uncertainties of an unpredictable future. There’s no guarantee it will ensure ‘recovery’ after a significant societal stressor/shock but it should increase the probability of it and that, perhaps, is all we can ‘hope’ for from its pursuit.”

If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).

Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running). 

If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing. 

Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99

Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps… 

https://paypal.me/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US 

If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.

You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.

AND

Released September 30, 2024
It Bears Repeating: Best Of…Volume 2

A compilation of writers focused on the nexus of limits to growth, energy, and ecological overshoot.

With a Foreword by Erik Michaels and Afterword by Dr. Guy McPherson, authors include: Dr. Peter A Victor, George Tsakraklides, Charles Hugh Smith, Dr. Tony Povilitis, Jordan Perry, Matt Orsagh, Justin McAffee, Jack Lowe, The Honest Sorcerer, Fast Eddy, Will Falk, Dr. Ugo Bardi, and Steve Bull.

The document is not a guided narrative towards a singular or overarching message; except, perhaps, that we are in a predicament of our own making with a far more chaotic future ahead of us than most imagine–and most certainly than what mainstream media/politics would have us believe.

Click here to access the document as a PDF file, free to download.

 

The Bulletin: May 8-14, 2025

The Bulletin: May 8-14, 2025

This past week’s articles of interest…

If you’re new to my writing, check out this overview.


“The Fourth Turning Is Now Raging…” And Neil Howe Warns “It’s Gone Global” | ZeroHedge

Disaster of Diesel’s Decrease

Musical Chairs on the Global Chessboard: Greenland, Panama, and the Coming Resource Grab

The Fall and Rise of Peak Oil – Ecosophia

Balsa Wood Logging For Wind Turbine Blades Is A Nasty Scene

The Blackout That Shook Spain: Exploring the Fragility of Modern Electric Grids

Complexity, energy, people and inequality

The Money is in Tomorrow’s Denial – by Misanthropocene

Heat and drought are quietly hurting global crop yields

U.S. Orders Intelligence Agencies to Increase Spying on Greenland – MishTalk

Fact Check on Trump’s Claim “We Don’t Do Much Business with Canada” – MishTalk

Ontario To Debut World’s First Small Modular Reactor, GE Predicts | ZeroHedge

The Pillars of Human Dominance and the Path to Ecological Collapse: A 21st-Century Reckoning

Global emergence of unprecedented lifetime exposure to climate extremes | Nature

50,000 Foot View

I’ve been talking civilisational collapse on MSM… and NOT been laughed out of the country!

Social Overshoot? Dunbar’s Number, Real Relationships, and Musical Chairs

Are we heading for another world war – or has it already started?

Plant communities in the Arctic are changing along with the climate, study finds | CBC News

War Is A Growing Concern Across Europe | ZeroHedge

India And Pakistan Agree To US-Mediated “Full & Immediate Ceasefire” | ZeroHedge

America’s Largest Grid Operator Warns Of Summer Power Shortages | ZeroHedge

Carrying Capacity and Overshoot

On Preempting Collapse – The Honest Sorcerer

Technophilia: The Mental Illness Behind Civilisational Collapse – George Tsakraklides

What if Malthus Was Right? – by Ugo Bardi

The Multi-Pronged Relentless Attacks on Our Oceans. | Kevin Hester

Antibiotics from human use are contaminating rivers worldwide, study shows

A River Starves Through It

The Greatest Disasters In Human History

It’s Not “If;” It’s “When” – Doug Casey’s International Man

Russia, Ukraine Exchange Large-Scale Drone Fire Despite Plan For Istanbul Peace Talks | ZeroHedge

The Green Energy Scam and the Deceptive UN/WEF Narratives of Green Politics – Global Research

Signs of Collapse: How It Seems To Be Unfolding

Finding Lights In a Dark Age

How To Make Your Mind Harder For The Propagandists To Manipulate

Paradise Lost

Journey To End Of Empire


If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).

Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running). 

If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing. 

Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99

Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps… 

https://paypal.me/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US 

If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.

You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.

 

The Bulletin: May 1-7, 2025

The Bulletin: May 1-7, 2025

This past week’s articles of interest…

If you’re new to my writing, check out this overview.


A Key Longevity Antioxidant Is Fading From Our Food Supply

The Limits of Business-as-Usual in AEO 2025 | Art Berman 

Complexity, Collapse, and the Lessons of Late Antiquity

More Than 150 Nobel-Prize Winning Scientists Warn of Imminent Global Famine: “We Must Act Now”

Major Escalation By Pakistan, Firing At International Border, India Responds

The Spanish Power Outage. A Catastrophe Created By Political Design and a Warning To The World | dlacalle.com

Do You Believe In Magic? – by Aurelien

Pakistan Warns It Has ‘Credible Intelligence’ India Will Attack Within 36 Hours | ZeroHedge

States of Fragility, 2025

Resource Scarcity and Eco-Fascism | Antonio Turiel

Heat and Fire Making Pollution Worse Across Much of the U.S. – Yale e360

Old growth forests in eastern Canada show that the climate started changing almost 100 years ago

Technology Addiction and Lessons, Part 2

Act of Sabotage Directed Against Iran? What Really Happened at Bandar Abbas? Mike Whitney – Global Research

Power Outage and Blackout Games: How the EU May be Using Fear to Tighten Social Control as Geopolitical Tensions Rise – Global Research

Death of Empires: History Tells Us What Will Follow the Collapse of US Hegemony | Covert Geopolitics

The 5 Stages of Collapse: Will We Survive the Breaking Point?

Information Burnout: Are We Past Peak Sensemaking?

The problem squared

The two horsemen of the net zero apocalypse

Self-Inflicted Civilizational Collapse — An Ancient Climate Story

Rockefeller Brothers Fund and the International Dictatorship of the Future

Global Food Prices Climb Toward Arab Spring-Era Highs Amid Trade War Turmoil | ZeroHedge

Europe Goes to War

El Blackout – by Isaac Orr and Mitch Rolling

How to reduce microplastic exposure and protect your health

Seabed Mining, Health Mining, and Health/Enviro Unity

A Clash of Titans – The Honest Sorcerer

Implanted Sociopolitical Identities – weapons of mass destruction delivered through trojan horses of the mind

#302: At the end of modernity, part one | Surplus Energy Economics

Human Extinction Ahead: How Many Years Left? – by Ugo Bardi

Why More Shale Oil Is Not Gonna Happen

Trump says he ‘doesn’t rule out’ using military force to control Greenland | Donald Trump | The Guardian

The Fragile Foundations of the Modern World – Why Collapse Is Already Underway | by Vansh Shah | May, 2025 | Medium

The Mouse Utopia That Ended in Collapse — And Why Humanity is Next

Climate change and the Overton Window – resilience

The 6th Mass Extinction | Are We Witnessing a Silent Apocalypse?

Global Wars, Depressions, Defaults & Debt Crisis Begin in 2025 – Martin Armstrong | Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog

Waking Up From The Nightmare Of Western Civilization

Techno-Optimism Won’t Save the Day

US Crude Oil Output to Peak As Early As This Year: Kpler | ZeroHedge

Trump Leaves Another Clue About Who Blew Up the Nord Stream Pipeline

“We Are At A Tipping Point”: Shale Giant Diamonback Says US Oil Output Has Peaked, Slashes CapEx Amid OPEC Price War | ZeroHedge

The Collapse of Civilization is Ongoing. There’s a Lot to Like About That.

Does the Concept of Pollution Match the Complexity of Human-Biosphere Interactions?

India Launches Strikes On Pakistan After Terror Attack | ZeroHedge


If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).

Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running). 

If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing. 

Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99

Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps… 

https://paypal.me/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US 

If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.

You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.

 

The Bulletin: April 24-30, 2025

The Bulletin: April 24-30, 2025

This past week’s articles of interest…

If you’re new to my writing, check out this overview.


Killing People by Lies: The New CO2 Campaign

$10T Money Print! Fed’s New Plan Will Dwarf Bernanke Era | ZeroHedge

The Wile E. Coyote Recession

How I Unintentionally Became an Urban Farmer

Banned DDT discovered in Canadian trout decades after use, research finds | Pollution | The Guardian

The Once and Future Nuke – by Albert Bates

By Disaster or Design – by Matt Orsagh

Rights of Nature as Direct Action to Confront Unjust Systems of Power

Brace for rapid changes in the economy; the world economy is reaching Limits to Growth

The 19 richest households in America added $1 trillion in wealth last year

Pakistan Warns Of ‘Act Of War’ After India Cancels Landmark Water Treaty | ZeroHedge

Kremlin Issues Nuclear Warning Aimed At West As Ukraine Peace Efforts Stall | ZeroHedge

Told You So. Trump’s Top Adviser Just Confirmed the Reset

Bringing Back the Rains To Southern Africa

“Fragile, impermanent things”: Joseph Tainter on what makes civilizations fall – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

Seeing lost winters, not just rising temperatures, shakes climate indifference

India Warned of ‘Act of War’ By Pakistan As Relations Collapse – Newsweek

India, Pakistan Trade Gunfire & Build-Up Militaries After Kashmir Terror Attack | ZeroHedge

There is No Way Out of This That Doesn’t Involve Money Printing | ZeroHedge

Major Iranian Port Paralyzed: 700 Injured, 5 Dead After Massive Explosion | ZeroHedge

“Take Control Of Their Food Supply”: Tractor Supply CEO Says Backyard Chicken Demand Skyrockets | ZeroHedge

Tensions over Kashmir and a warming planet have placed the Indus Waters Treaty on life support

Health Prepping: Seed Oils Are Poison

Energy transition: the end of an idea – by Chris Smaje

Thorium nuclear bombs and reactors have too many challenges – Peak Everything, Overshoot, & Collapse

How Much Is Enough? – Charles Hugh Smith’s Substack

Part 2: Interview With Just Collapse

Longtermism: The Key to Human Survival?

Resources and Our Future

Belligerence On ‘Energy Dominance’ Is Losing The U.S. Respect

It’s Always About the System

The CEOs of Walmart, Target, Home Depot Warn That Store Shelves All Over America Could Soon Be Empty

‘They Lied To Us About Iraq’s WMDs, But They’ve Taken It To Another Level With Ukraine…’; Hitchens | ZeroHedge

The Endlessness of a Temporary Tax – Doug Casey’s International Man

Population Control Versus Population Growth

William of Ockham and the Collapse Of Complexity: A Razor’s Edge for the End Times

Supply Chain Crisis Looms: Shortages Set to Slam Markets! | ZeroHedge

Product shortages and empty store shelves loom with falling shipments from China

How a solar storm could lead to a US nuclear disaster worse than Chernobyl | Mark Leyse | The Guardian


If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).

Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running). 

If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing. 

Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99

Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps… 

https://paypal.me/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US 

If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.

You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.

Today’s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh CCII– Hydrocarbons: Our Finite, Master Energy Resource and the Implications Of Its Peak For Modernity

Today’s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh CCII–
Hydrocarbons: Our Finite, Master Energy Resource and the Implications Of Its Peak For Modernity

Sun setting on an oil field.


If you’re new to my writing, check out this overview.


I’m finding that Large Language Models (LLMs) are a fantastic tool for skimming large amounts of information and summarising what it has scanned–it might take me hours/days/weeks to locate, access, read, interpret, summarise in my own words, and then review multiple times for grammar/spelling/flow of thought/etc. a fraction of the data that these computer programmes can take seconds to do. As such, I’ve spent some time using one for the purpose of following some thoughts on Peak Oil, a topic that I have been interested in for 15+ years and continue to keep at the forefront of my thinking when interpreting world events and attempting to better understand our modern, complex societies.

As I’ve asserted repeatedly, energy is everything. Nothing exists without it and it is most certainly fundamental to human complex societies–the more energy we have available and use, the larger and more complex our societies and their various systems become. Yes, our ingenuity and technological prowess have helped us create and build these complexities, but it is all underpinned by energy of one form or another and we have repeatedly leveraged energy to support our various adaptations, technologies, and massive expansion to most corners of our planet. 

Our modern world is dependent upon huge amounts of energy and in particular that provided by a finite cache of hydrocarbons. From an energy perspective hydrocarbons–particularly oil–are the commodity resource that should be considered humanity’s ‘master energy resource’; and it is one that appears irreplaceable given its energy-return-on-investments, density, transportability, and a variety of other characteristics that have led to its primacy in supporting our societal complexities.

And for better or worse, the waning days of this phenomenal and paramount energy resource are clearly in sight (or at least should be). So what are the implications of this for ‘Modernity’?

Let’s explore what the LLM Deepseek (DS) garners from the information it has access to regarding this hugely significant resource.

I asked the following five preparatory questions:

  1. How much oil does the world use per day?
  2. What percentage of oil reserves get extracted within 5-10 years of discovery?
  3. What percentage of discovered oil reserves tend to end up as actually recoverable?
  4. What percentage of recent oil production comes from unconventional sources?
  5. What is the trend for new oil field discoveries for the past twenty years?

My culminating question based upon the responses to the above inquiries:

  1. Given that: the world uses 100 million barrels of oil per day; only 10-30% of conventional oil fields, 20-50% of unconventional oil, and 5-15% of heavy oil can be recovered within 5-10 years of discovery; only 35-45% of conventional fields and 5-30% of unconventional oil is typically recovered; unconventional oil sources provide a significant and growing share of oil production; and that for the past twenty years new oil discoveries have failed to keep up with demand, what are the implications for modern, complex societies?

The response to this last question begins by stating: “The implications of these trends for modern, complex societies are profound, touching on energy security, economic stability, geopolitics, and environmental sustainability.” 

And DS concludes: “Modern societies built on cheap, abundant oil face a decade of reckoning. The choices made now—between clinging to fossil fuels or aggressively transitioning—will determine whether the 21st century sees managed adaptation or chaotic collapse.” (You can find the full responses to my questions directly below my opening comments.)

First, ‘profound’ would be one way to describe what Peak Oil portends for our societies. The peaking and subsequent shortfall in hydrocarbon extraction will send (is sending?) our current societal systems spinning in some very ‘interesting’ ways–including some Black Swan events that few, if any, can envision.

There’s a very good argument that this process began quite a number of years ago and has resulted in such ‘adaptations’ as significant expansion of manipulation/machination within impacted societal systems, especially our economic and geopolitical ones. And this will be/is particularly true for the current global hegemon (i.e., the US-NATO Empire) whose ‘power’ is greatly at risk as a result–continued expansion and control is virtually impossible without massive energy resources to support them.

Second, while I disagree with the ‘solution’ (pursuit of an aggressive transition to ‘renewables’) proposed by DS–not that I asked for one–I am not surprised by it. 

LLMs base their ‘answers’ to questions upon the prompts that are inputted by the person performing the inquiry and the data/information they have access to. Most individuals and groups (including, but especially profit-driven industries, governments, and academic institutions) are firmly entrenched in the denial and bargaining phases of awareness concerning our energy-resource predicament, and they are the ones that have dominated our research, reporting, and conversations about the issue. 

As such, our media and public spaces are flooded with the narrative (and derivations of it) that human ingenuity and our technological prowess can ‘solve’ any ‘problem’ that we encounter–and those that can have leveraged this societal belief to extract ‘wealth’ and reinforced it at every opportunity. On top of this, most have not only been conditioned to believe this tale but want to believe desperately that it is true. So, it is not the least bit surprising that LLMs would ‘conclude’ that we can address the predicament of Peak Oil via our technology of ‘renewables’ and forthcoming ‘clean’ energy ‘breakthroughs’. (I can’t help but think of the saying “garbage in, garbage out”, or in this case: “hopium in, hopium out”.)

Whether you agree with DS’s proposed ‘solution’ to this predicament depends greatly upon your worldview/paradigm/schema/interpretive lens and the stage of awareness/grieving you find yourself presently within. If you do hold this story to be ‘true’, I recommend looking behind the curtain of the ‘renewables-will-save-us’ storyline and especially into the dark corners where is hidden the disastrous impacts upon our ecosystems of the production of these industrial products and their reliance upon massive hydrocarbon inputs.

To sum up the ‘risks’ and ‘solutions’ the LLM DS suggests regarding a peaking of oil resources [along with what I suspect may accompany each]:

-Hydrocarbon price volatility due to supply shocks and geopolitical conflict [expect deflection regarding what is causing price volatility and the ramping up of nationalism, warmongering, and othering in light of geopolitical tensions].

-Risk to economic systems as prices inflate due to higher energy costs [expect dramatic debt-/credit-based money ‘creation’ and significant price inflation–blamed on anything but waning hydrocarbon supplies, money ‘printing’, and wealth extraction by the ruling ‘elite’ and various snake oil salesmen].

-Escalating geopolitical tensions due to resource nationalisation and competition [even more nationalism, warmongering, and othering along with reasons for everyone (except the elite) to tighten their belts as we invest ever-greater amounts of resources into domestic resource exploration/extraction and the military–to help in accessing/controlling non-domestic resources].

-Technological adaptation to minimise reliance upon hydrocarbons [expect the narratives surrounding our ability to ‘solve’ hydrocarbon supply shocks to be ever-present and arguments for gargantuan monetary investments in these technologies and research around them; along with massive wealth gains for those connected to these–completely ‘justifiable’ because they’re ‘saving the world’]. 

-Increasing energy poverty, particularly for the already ‘disadvantaged/marginalised’ [expect those already suffering from our current socioeconomic and sociopolitical systems to take it on the chin even more while our ‘leaders’ argue that just the opposite will occur with our energy-security and military ‘investments’–in other words, even more pronounced socioeconomic inequality and increasing narrative management regarding this].

It’s certainly a fine mess we find ourselves caught up in. Prepare accordingly…


A handful of my recent Contemplations that touch on the subjects discussed above:

-Peak Oil, Economic Growth, and Wildlife Conservation: Envisioning An Alternative Future. March 28, 2025. Website     Medium     Substack

-Imperial Longevity, ‘Collapse’ Causes, and Resource Finiteness. March 7, 2025. Website     Medium     Substack 

-Beyond Peak Oil: Will Our Cities Collapse? February 20, 2025. Website Medium     Substack

-‘Renewable’ Energy: See, Hear, and Speak No Evil, Part 1. January 12, 2025. Website     Medium     Substack; Part 2. January 25. Website     Medium     Substack;  Part 3. January 31. Website     Medium     Substack

US Peak Shale Oil & Gas: When the Walls Come Tumblin’ Down. December 30, 2024. Website Medium Substack

-Sorry, folks, but ‘renewables’ are NOT going to save humanity or the planet. December 1, 2024. Website      Medium      Substack 

Collapse = Prolonged Period of Diminishing Returns + Significant Stress Surge(s), Part 1. October 7, 2024. Website    Medium    Substack; Part 2. October 15. Website    Medium    Substack;Part 3. October 23. Website     Medium     Substack; Part 4. October 28. Website     Medium     Substack

‘Renewables’: The Great ‘Solution’ (NOT). August 20, 2024. Website     Medium     Substack


The detailed DeepSeek responses follow.

  1. How much oil does the world use per day?

As of recent data (2023-2024), the world consumes approximately 100 million barrels of oil per day (mb/d). This figure includes all forms of petroleum liquids, such as crude oil, lease condensate, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and refinery processing gains.  =

Key Insights on Global Oil Consumption:

  1. Top Consumers: 

   – United States (~20 mb/d)  

   – China (~15–16 mb/d)  

   – India (~5–6 mb/d)  

   – European Union (~13–14 mb/d combined)  

  1. Demand Trends:  

   – Oil demand has been rising gradually, driven by emerging economies (Asia, Africa, Middle East).  

   – Developed nations are seeing slower growth due to energy transitions and efficiency improvements.  

  1. Future Projections:  

   – The International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC expect demand to peak between 2030–2040 as renewable energy and electric vehicles expand.  

   – Short-term demand remains strong due to industrial needs, aviation, and petrochemicals.  


  1. What percentage of oil reserves get extracted within 5-10 years of discovery?

The percentage of oil reserves extracted within 5–10 years of discovery depends on several factors, including the type of reservoir, technology, economics, and geopolitical conditions. Here’s a general breakdown:

Typical Recovery Rates in Early Years  

  1. Conventional Oil Fields (Easy-to-extract reserves):  

   – ~10–30% of the total recoverable reserves may be extracted in the first 5–10 years.  

   – Faster extraction occurs in large, high-pressure fields (e.g., Saudi Arabia’s Ghawar).  

   – Offshore and deepwater projects (e.g., Brazil’s pre-salt) may take longer due to complexity.  

  1. Unconventional Oil (Shale, Tight Oil, Oil Sands):  

   – ~20–50% of reserves can be extracted quickly (within 5–10 years) due to hydraulic fracturing (fracking) and horizontal drilling.  

   – However, shale wells decline rapidly (~60–70% in the first year), so continuous drilling is needed.  

  1. Heavy Oil & Oil Sands (e.g., Canada’s Alberta):  

   – Only ~5–15% may be extracted in the first decade due to slower, energy-intensive extraction methods (e.g., steam-assisted gravity drainage).  

Key Factors Affecting Early Extraction  

– Technology: Enhanced oil recovery (EOR) methods (e.g., CO₂ injection) can speed up extraction.  

– Economics: High oil prices incentivize faster development.  

– Regulations: Strict environmental policies (e.g., Norway, U.S. offshore) may delay production.  

– Field Size: Giant fields (>1 billion barrels) take longer to develop but produce for decades.  

Long-Term vs. Short-Term Extraction 

– Most fields produce for 20–50 years, with peak output often 5–15 years after discovery.  

– Example: The Permian Basin (U.S.) saw rapid fracking-driven extraction, while deepwater fields (e.g., Guyana’s Stabroek) take ~5–7 years from discovery to first oil.  


  1. What percentage of discovered oil reserves tend to end up as actually recoverable?

The percentage of discovered oil reserves that end up being actually recoverable depends on geological, technological, and economic factors. Here’s a breakdown of key concepts and estimates:

  1. Definitions  

– Original Oil in Place (OOIP): Total oil in a reservoir (100%).  

– Proved Reserves (1P): Oil that is ~90% likely to be recoverable with current tech/economics.  

– Recoverable Reserves: What can realistically be extracted over time (usually 30–60% of OOIP).  

  1. Recovery Factors by Reservoir Type:
Reservoir Type Typical Recovery Factor Notes
Conventional Oil (e.g., Saudi Arabia, North Sea) 20–50% Depends on pressure, permeability, and secondary recovery (water/gas injection).
Unconventional (Shale/Tight Oil) (e.g., U.S. Permian Basin) 5–15%** (per well) Fracking improves extraction, but wells decline fast.
Heavy Oil/Oil Sands** (e.g., Canada, Venezuela) 5–30% Requires steam or solvent injection (SAGD).
Deepwater/Offshore** (e.g., Brazil pre-salt) 15–40% High-tech extraction but challenging conditions. 
Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR)** (CO₂, chemical flooding 30–60%+ Can boost recovery beyond primary/secondary methods.

 

  1. Why Isn’t 100% Recovered? 

– Physical Limitations: Oil sticks to rocks (residual saturation), and reservoirs lose pressure.  

– Economic Constraints: Extracting the last 20–30% may cost more than the oil’s value.  

– Technological Barriers:Some reserves (e.g., ultra-deep, Arctic) are too difficult with current tech.  

  1. Industry Trends Improving Recovery  

– Digital Oilfields (AI, sensors) optimize extraction.  

– EOR Methods (CO₂ injection, microbes) push recovery rates higher.  

– Nanotechnology & Advanced Fracking** help tap more shale oil.  

  1. Real-World Examples  

– Ghawar Field (Saudi Arabia): ~50–60% recovery (best-case conventional).  

– Permian Shale Wells: ~5–10% per well, but new drilling keeps reserves “replenished.”  

– Alberta Oil Sands: ~10–20% recovery via mining, up to ~30% with in-situ methods.  

Bottom Line  

Globally, only about 35–45% of discovered oil is typically recovered from conventional fields, with some EOR pushing it to 50–60% in ideal cases. Unconventional oil (shale, heavy oil) often recovers far less (5–30%).  


  1. What percentage of recent oil production comes from unconventional sources?

As of recent data (2023–2024), unconventional oil sources (shale/tight oil, oil sands, and deepwater) contribute a significant and growing share of global oil production. Here’s the breakdown:  

Global Oil Production: Unconventional vs. Conventional

Source Share of Global Production Key Regions
Unconventional (Total) ~30–35% (~30–35 million barrels per day) U.S., Canada, Brazil, Argentina
Shale/Tight Oil ~15–18%** (~15–18 mb/d) U.S. (Permian, Bakken), Argentina (Vaca Muerta)
Oil Sands ~5–6%** (~5–6 mb/d) Canada (Alberta)
Deepwater/Ultra-Deep ~8–10%** (~8–10 mb/d) Brazil (pre-salt), Gulf of Mexico, West Africa
Conventional Oil ~65–70%** (~65–70 mb/d) Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE

 

Key Trends

  1. U.S. Dominance in Shale Oil  

   – The U.S. is the world’s **top oil producer**, thanks to fracking (shale/tight oil accounts for ~65% of U.S. production).  

   – The Permian Basin alone produces ~6–7 mb/d (more than most OPEC countries).  

  1. Canada’s Oil Sands  

   – Alberta’s oil sands produce ~3.5–4 mb/d, but growth is slowing due to climate policies.  

  1. Brazil’s Deepwater Boom  

   – Pre-salt fields (e.g., Tupi, Búzios) now produce ~2.5–3 mb/d, making Brazil a top-5 global producer.  

  1. OPEC’s Declining Share  

   – Conventional oil (led by OPEC+) still dominates, but its market share has dropped from ~50% in 2000 to ~35–40% today due to the U.S. shale revolution.  

Future Outlook  

– Unconventional production (especially shale) will remain critical but faces challenges:  

  – Shale decline rates (wells lose ~60% of output in Year 1).  

  – Investment constraints (ESG pressures, fewer new drillings).  

– Deepwater and oil sands will grow moderately, while shale may peak in the 2030s.  


  1. What is the trend for new oil field discoveries for the past twenty years?

Over the past 20 years (2004–2024), the trend in new oil field discoveries has shifted dramatically, with significant implications for global supply. Here’s a breakdown of key trends:

  1. Declining Volume of Discoveries  

– 2000s (Peak Era):  

  – Annual discoveries averaged ~15–20 billion barrels (Gb) of oil equivalent (boe) in the early 2000s.  

  – Major finds: Kashagan (Kazakhstan, 2000), Tupi (Brazil pre-salt, 2006), Jubilee (Ghana, 2007).  

– 2010s (Sharp Drop):  

  – Discoveries fell to ~5–10 Gb/year, with a record low of ~4 Gb in 2016 (Rystad Energy).  

  – Reason: High exploration costs, focus on shale, and underinvestment in conventional drilling.  

– 2020s (Partial Recovery):  

  – Improved technology (AI, seismic imaging) boosted discoveries to ~8–12 Gb/year, but still below replacement levels.  

  – Recent giants: Guyana’s Stabroek Block (Exxon, 2015+), Namibia’s Venus (2022).  

  1. Shift to Offshore & Unconventional  

– Deepwater/Ultra-Deepwater Dominance:  

  – ~60% of new reserves since 2010 came from offshore (Brazil, Guyana, Namibia).  

  – Example: Guyana’s discoveries (>11 Gb since 2015) now produce ~600,000 b/d (rising to 1.2+ mb/d by 2027).  

– Shale’s Short-Term Boom:  

  – U.S. tight oil surged but relies on reserve growth via drilling (not new field discoveries).  

  – Shale adds ~5–10 Gb/year in “technically recoverable” reserves but has steep decline rates.  

  1. Smaller Average Field Size  

– Pre-2000: Average discovery size was ~500 million barrels (Mb).  

– Post-2010: Dropped to ~100 Mb, with fewer “elephant” fields (>1 Gb).  

– Exceptions:  

  – Guyana (Exxon’s Stabroek: 11 Gb+**).  

  – Namibia (TotalEnergies’ Venus: **~3 Gb+**).  

  1. Replacement Ratio Crisis  

– Global oil consumption:~35–40 Gb/year.  

– Discoveries vs. Demand:  

  – Only ~20–30% of consumed oil was replaced by new discoveries in the past decade.  

  – The industry now relies more on reserve growth in existing fields (e.g., EOR, shale drilling). 

     5. Future Outlook  

– Offshore Focus: Brazil, Guyana, Namibia, and the East Mediterranean will drive new supply.  

– Exploration Risks:  

  – ESG pressures limit investment in frontier regions (e.g., Arctic).  

  – National oil companies (NOCs) now dominate exploration (vs. shrinking major oil firm budgets).  

Key Takeaway  

New discoveries have failed to keep pace with demand since the 2010s, pushing the industry toward:  

  1. Smaller, technically complex fields (deepwater, shale).  
  2. Lower-carbon extraction (methane reduction, CCUS).  
  3. Geopolitical shifts (Guyana/Namibia rising, Middle East stabilizing).  

  1. Given that: the world uses 100 million barrels of oil per day; only 10-30% of conventional oil fields, 20-50% of unconventional oil, and 5-15% of heavy oil can be recovered within 5-10 years of discovery; only 35-45% of conventional fields and 5-30% of unconventional oil is typically recovered; unconventional oil sources provide a significant and growing share of oil production; and that for the past twenty years new oil discoveries have failed to keep up with demand, what are the implications for modern, complex societies?

The implications of these trends for modern, complex societies are profound, touching on energy security, economic stability, geopolitics, and environmental sustainability. Here’s a breakdown of the key challenges and potential outcomes:

  1. Energy Security & Supply Crunches  

– Growing Demand vs. Stagnant Discoveries:  

  – The world consumes ~35–40 billion barrels/year, but discoveries replace only 20–30% of that.  

  – Result: Dependence on existing fields (many in decline) and unconventional sources (costly, finite).  

– Geopolitical Vulnerabilities:  

  – Reliance on a shrinking number of producers (OPEC+, U.S. shale, Guyana, Brazil) increases price volatility.  

  – Conflicts or underinvestment could trigger supply shocks (e.g., 1970s-style crises).  

  1. Economic Risks  

– Higher Oil Prices:  

  – Tighter supply + rising demand (especially from Asia) could push prices above $100/barrel long-term.  

  – Inflationary pressure on transport, manufacturing, and food production.  

– Shale’s Limits:  

  – U.S. tight oil has peaked in prime basins (Permian growth slowing by 2030s).  

  – Fracking requires continuous drilling—capital and labor shortages could disrupt output.  

  1. Geopolitical Shifts  

– New Power Centers:  

  – Guyana, Brazil, and Namibia gain influence; traditional producers (Saudi Arabia, Russia) face budget strains.  

– Resource Nationalism:  

  – Countries may hoard reserves (e.g., Mexico’s PEMEX reforms, Venezuela’s sanctions battles).  

– Energy Wars:  

  – Competition over remaining resources (Arctic, South China Sea) could escalate tensions.  

  1. Industrial & Technological Adaptation  

– Efficiency & Substitution:  

  – Airlines, shipping, and petrochemicals will face scarcity-driven innovation (e.g., biofuels, hydrogen).  

  – Electric vehicles (EVs) reduce transport demand but won’t offset industrial/oil-heavy sectors fast enough.  

– Enhanced Recovery:  

  – AI, robotics, and nanotechnology may squeeze 5–15% more oil from old fields, delaying collapse.  

  1. Societal & Environmental Strains  

– Energy Poverty:  

  – Rising prices disproportionately hit low-income households (heating, transportation costs).  

– Climate Trade-Offs:  

  – Societies may delay decarbonization to secure oil (e.g., Europe’s post-Ukraine coal revival).  

  – Or accelerate renewables if oil shocks become frequent (1970s spurred nuclear/solar investments).  

  1. Potential Scenarios 

    1. “Muddling Through” (Most Likely)

– Oil prices oscillate between $80–150/barrel, driving slow adoption of alternatives.  

– Repeated supply crunches spur stop-gap measures (coal-to-liquids, gas-to-liquids).  

         2. Crisis & Collapse  

– A major geopolitical disruption (e.g., war in the Gulf) triggers global recession.  

– Shortages cripple logistics chains (food, medicines) and destabilize governments.

          3. Rapid Transition

– Oil shocks force WWII-scale mobilization into renewables, nuclear, and synthetic fuels.  

– Cities redesign transport (walkability, EVs), industries pivot to circular economies.  

Key Takeaways for Policymakers & Businesses  

  1. Diversify Energy Mix: Fast-track renewables, nuclear, and hydrogen to reduce oil dependence.  
  2. Strategic Reserves: Expand stockpiles for supply disruptions.  
  3. Demand Reduction: Mandate efficiency (CAFE standards, industrial electrification).  
  4. Geopolitical Alliances: Secure partnerships with stable producers (e.g., U.S.-Guyana ties).  

Bottom Line  

Modern societies built on cheap, abundant oil face a decade of reckoning. The choices made now—between clinging to fossil fuels or aggressively transitioning—will determine whether the 21st century sees managed adaptation or chaotic collapse. 


Exploring questions of the impact upon the planet’s ecosystems of the proposed ‘solution’ of an aggressive transition to ‘renewables’ is fodder for a future Contemplation…


What is going to be my standard WARNING/ADVICE going forward and that I have reiterated in various ways before this:

“Only time will tell how this all unfolds but there’s nothing wrong with preparing for the worst by ‘collapsing now to avoid the rush’ and pursuing self-sufficiency. By this I mean removing as many dependencies on the Matrix as is possible and making do, locally. And if one can do this without negative impacts upon our fragile ecosystems or do so while creating more resilient ecosystems, all the better. 

Building community (maybe even just household) resilience to as high a level as possible seems prudent given the uncertainties of an unpredictable future. There’s no guarantee it will ensure ‘recovery’ after a significant societal stressor/shock but it should increase the probability of it and that, perhaps, is all we can ‘hope’ for from its pursuit.”


If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).

Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running). 

If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing. 

Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99

Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps… 

https://paypal.me/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US 

If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.

You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.

AND

Released September 30, 2024
It Bears Repeating: Best Of…Volume 2

A compilation of writers focused on the nexus of limits to growth, energy, and ecological overshoot.

With a Foreword by Erik Michaels and Afterword by Dr. Guy McPherson, authors include: Dr. Peter A Victor, George Tsakraklides, Charles Hugh Smith, Dr. Tony Povilitis, Jordan Perry, Matt Orsagh, Justin McAffee, Jack Lowe, The Honest Sorcerer, Fast Eddy, Will Falk, Dr. Ugo Bardi, and Steve Bull.

The document is not a guided narrative towards a singular or overarching message; except, perhaps, that we are in a predicament of our own making with a far more chaotic future ahead of us than most imagine–and most certainly than what mainstream media/politics would have us believe.

Click here to access the document as a PDF file, free to download.

 

The Bulletin: April 17-23, 2025

The Bulletin: April 17-23, 2025

This past week’s articles of interest…

If you’re new to my writing, check out this overview.


How Climate Change Fuels Increasing Wildfire Disasters

Extended Heatwave in India, Pakistan To Test Survivability

History Will Not Repeat Itself – George Tsakraklides

Zero-Based Extinction: Nature’s Life Support Gets a Sunset Clause

The Structure of Geopolitical Revolutions | Art Berman

Technology Addiction and Lessons

The unregulated link in a toxic supply chain | Grist

The End Of Thinking

What will happen when the world runs out of oil? | 60 Minutes Australia

EIA Says U.S. Oil Production Will Peak in 2027 | OilPrice.com

Unintended Consequences in a Complex World – by Nate Hagens

How Things Break: Hyper-Optimization

Being Certain About Uncertainty – The Honest Sorcerer

2030 Doomsday Scenario: The Great Nuclear Collapse

Poverty and Progress – by Gunnar Rundgren

Our Sad Species | how to save the world

“China Will Never Accept It”: Beijing Warns Countries Against Trade Deal With Trump At China’s Expense | ZeroHedge

What’s “Normal” in a Hyper-Normalized World?

Science Snippets: The Disasters Of Cooking and Heating With Plastic

Pope Francis Failed: Now we Need a New Religion?

From Gridlock to Road Rage: What Collapse Feels Like

The first commercial carbon sequestration plant in the U.S. leaks – Peak Everything, Overshoot, & Collapse

Living In the Shadows


If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).

Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running). 

If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing. 

Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99

Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps… 

https://paypal.me/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US 

If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.

You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.

 

The Bulletin: April 10-16, 2025

The Bulletin: April 10-16, 2025

This past week’s articles of interest…


Living Without Fossil Fuels: How Living Energy Farm Created a Comfortable Off-Grid Lifestyle

German Journalist David Bendels Sentenced for Satirical Post Targeting Interior Minister Nancy Faeser

The Economics Of A Dying Empire

The Sharp Turn: Global Collapse Picks Up Speed

Uruguay – by Matt Orsagh – Degrowth is the Answer

New Trump Orders Aim to Keep Coal Power Alive, Despite Climate and Economic Costs

Economists now say a dire economic slowdown has already begun – MarketWatch

Street Medics For A Just Collapse

Trump Suggests Israel Would ‘Lead’ Possible Attack On Iran | ZeroHedge

Philosophical Reflections on Predicting the Future in an Age of Existential Threats | Collapse of Industrial Civilization

Contamination threatens the last source of clean groundwater in west New Mexico – High Country News

The Spiritual Poverty of Statism, Perpetual manufactured cultural adolescence and their ecological impacts

Water Wars, Begun They Have | ZeroHedge

We are losing soil moisture, why? – by Anastassia Makarieva

THE DEEPER DIVE: The Economic World Order Is Cracking up and Taking the Dollar Down with it

On the Path to War with Iran – Glenn Diesen’s Substack

Peak Population: The Global Reversal Unfolds – by Ugo Bardi

China Halts Rare Earth Exports Desperately Needed by the US – MishTalk

Why Bug Out States Are Not a Good Idea to Move Into

Canadian mayors push federal leaders for action on climate, not pipelines | CBC News

Fox Business pushes “clean coal” and other energy falsehoods to rally behind Trump’s so-called energy dominance plan | Media Matters for America

Trade, Tariffs, Currencies, Colonialism, the Gold Watch and Everything

Election 2025 Part One: Canadian Sovereignty at Stake! Interviews with Politicians and David Orchard. – Global Research

Putting the Earth Back in Model Land | Art Berman

As more communities have to consider relocation, we explore what happens to the land after people leave

Our World Is Paved With Indifference

A Byproduct of Manure Runoff Is Polluting Drinking Water in Thousands of US Communities, According to a New Report – Inside Climate News

How Modern Lifestyles Contribute to Disease – Global Research

No More Heroes Or Seeking Strong Gods

The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada, March 2025: Sales Plunge, Supply Surges, Overall Prices Drop to Multi-Year Lows, Driven by Toronto | Wolf Street


If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).

Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running). 

If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing. 

Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99

Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps… 

https://paypal.me/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US 

If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.

You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.

The Bulletin: April 3-9, 2025

The Bulletin: April 3-9, 2025

This past week’s articles of interest…


Nuclear Infrastructure and Radioactive Threats in a Post-Collapse World

We May Be Directly at War with Russia Already

Green Colonialism Is Still Colonialism

How the US Ran the War In Ukraine

Rewilding 15 Million Acres: Why True Wealth Means More Than Money

Planned blackouts are becoming more common − and not having cash on hand could cost you

Iran, False Flags, and Manufacturing Consent For War

The Amazon rainforest emerges as the new global oil frontier

Everything in Moderation – by Matt Orsagh

Beliefs Versus Facts

Pollinator and Civilizational Collapse

Water Is the New Oil’ as Texas Cities Square Off Over Aquifers – Inside Climate News

Doomed

Chemical industrial farming is unsustainable and does not work: pests evolve immunity – Peak Everything, Overshoot, & Collapse

Net Zero and Other Delusions: What Can’t, Won’t and Might Happen

China Strikes Back With 34 Percent Tariffs, Stocks Plunge Second Day – MishTalk

Great Depression 2.0

Catastrophe Looms Above: Space Junk Problem Grew ‘Significantly Worse’ In 2024 | ZeroHedge

Is a Global Economic Crash Required to Trigger a Social Reset?

Oxygen is running low in inland waters—and human activities are to blame

Did the Bronze Age Collapse Predict Our Future? Ancient Lessons for Modern Civilization

Wars Make the Rich Richer and the Poor Dead

Bye-Bye Saudi America – The Honest Sorcerer

The Collapse of the American Empire – by Ugo Bardi

Words Won’t Cut It – by Rachel Donald – Planet: Critical

The Financial Kessler Effect

Empire Diminished. – by Matt Orsagh

15 Biggest Environmental Problems of 2025 | Earth.Org

How Survivors Spanned The Globe After Earth’s Biggest Mass Extinction – Astrobiology

Pentagon Prepares for Trump to Go Berserk

Maximum Power, Minimum Awareness | Art Berman

3 Shocking Truths Most People Don’t Know About Money in Bank Accounts…

The Doomer’s Dilemma | Collapse of Industrial Civilization

What Are the Rights of Nature? – Inside Climate News

Canada: Liberal Leader Mark Carney Supports Major CBC/Radio-Canada Funding Increases to Combat “Misinformation”

Oil Execs Warn Privately That Trump’s ‘Chaos’ Could Be ‘Disaster’ for Their Industry – DeSmog

“The Bailout Of All Bailouts” Is Coming

We’ve Become Business Partners in the Apocalypse


If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).

Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running). 

If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing. 

Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99

Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps… 

https://paypal.me/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US 

If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.

You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.

 

The Bulletin: March 27-April 2, 2025

The Bulletin: March 27-April 2, 2025

This past week’s articles of interest…

Swedish shoppers boycott supermarkets over ‘runaway’ food prices | Sweden | The Guardian

The future of wetlands: Predicting ecological shifts in the Middle Yangtze River Basin

Agriculture in the Crosshairs: Breadbasket Collapse at 2°C and 3°C

US Government is a Big Money Laundering Operation – John Rubino | Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog

Ukraine Was CIA Regime Change Operation – by Jeffrey Sachs

Collapse: What Would Grok Do? – by Ugo Bardi

Scientists sound the alarm as new study predicts dire consequences of human activity: ‘The power to wipe out entire landscapes’

Clouds may amplify global warming far more than previously understood

States Work To Make Gold and Silver Alternative Currencies To US Dollar

Resistance and the First Amendment: What You Can (and Can’t) Say in a Dying Empire

The Unseen Accelerators of Climate Change and The Final Unraveling | Collapse of Industrial Civilization

Earth’s storage of water in soil, lakes and rivers is dwindling. And it’s especially bad for farming

Earth’s Land Masses Are Drying Out Fast, Scientists Warn – Inside Climate News

Can We Find Unity in Collapse? – by Geoffrey Deihl

Researchers Identify Diets In Mid-Life Linked To Healthy Aging

Foes and Friends of Nuclear Power Face Off Near Three Mile Island

MIT Predicted Society Collapse: Are We Doomed Sooner Than Expected?

From the Archives: So That’s Who’s Screwing Up Everything

Guide to Personal and Household Preparedness

Biodiversity Collapse, Climate Feedback Loops, the Population Bottleneck, and Human Extinction

This Is Collapse. What Do We Do Now?

Honeybee Deaths Surge in US

Ishmael: Chapter 2 | Do the Math

Paris court strips Marine Le Pen of the right to run for public office – at one stroke disqualifying the highest-polling candidate from the 2027 French presidential elections

Biden Lied About Everything, Including Nuclear Risk, During Ukraine Operation

Advanced Economies Are Being Pushed Toward Financial Collapse

Status of US Dollar as Global Reserve Currency: Central Banks Diversify into Other Currencies and Gold | Wolf Street

Ice storm leaves more than 450 000 customers without power in U.S. and Canada

The Loneliness Of Ecological Awareness

The High Price Of War With Iran: $10 Gas And The Collapse Of The US Economy

Rethinking Science, Reclaiming Wisdom | Art Berman

BRACE FOR IMPACT – by Margi Prideaux, PhD – Radically Local

Redrawing Boundaries in a Multipolar World: A New Phase of World War 3



If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).

Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running). 

If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing. 

Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99

Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps… 

https://paypal.me/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US 

If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.

You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.

 

Today’s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh CCI– Peak Oil, Economic Growth, and Wildlife Conservation: Envisioning An Alternative Future

Today’s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh CCI–
Peak Oil, Economic Growth, and Wildlife Conservation: Envisioning An Alternative Future

Pompeii, Italy (1992). Photo by author.

Following on the heels of my Contemplation that looked at a Peak Oil article that focused upon  whether our cities would ‘collapse’ or not as a result of waning hydrocarbons (see: Website; Medium; Substack), I offer a summary and some thoughts regarding the final chapter of the book Peak Oil, Economic Growth, and Wildlife Conversation that forwards the prospects for an alternative future to a ‘collapsing’ one.

The book itself offers a variety of perspectives written by an assortment of academics and other experts on subjects that overlap with energy, economics, and ecology. Below is the Table of Contents from this monograph.

While I only read the final chapter, there seemed to be some conflicting messages within its body: a recognition of our predicaments but the proposal of ‘solutions’ that tend to prolong or exacerbate the mechanisms mostly responsible for our dilemma.

First, on the one hand the editors argue that ‘renewables’ cannot possibly support industrial civilisation, their production consists of ecologically-destructive processes, and the scale of industrial manufacturing being called for by many would result in devastating and significant detrimental environmental impacts. On the other hand, they suggest that we should pursue these technologies to help us with the impending consequences of Peak Oil and climate change.

Another example of such conflicting messaging is the argument that ‘advanced’ economies need to reduce their consumption dramatically but that material throughputs should continue in order for ‘emerging’ economies to grow theirs. This is one of the suggestions that I have heard from a number of people within the ‘environmental’ movement and have some difficulty with. 

Is shifting economic growth from advanced economies to emerging ones going to dramatically reduce material throughputs and all the deleterious impacts such activity has on our planet and its ecosystems? 

It seems increasingly obvious that advanced economies need to throttle back their consumption dramatically if we are to hope for a reduction in the destruction that has accompanied economic growth systems, but I am not in agreement with the suggestion that this should be shifted towards emerging economies in an attempt to bolster their growth–and consequently their dependence upon modernity’s extractive and destructive industrial systems. Given how far we seem to be into ecological overshoot and the fact that continued material throughput exacerbates that situation, attempts to grow economies anywhere is problematic (and certainly not ‘sustainable’).

In fact, in their discussion on economic growth the authors raise the unsustainability of its pursuit. So, why would we encourage it anywhere? This problematic aspect of complex societies’ chasing of perpetual growth should be obvious to anyone who appreciates the finiteness of resources within the closed system that is our planet. 

Unfortunately, many do not see this impediment to continuing growth. I believe this is thanks mostly to the stories that have been created to rationalise it–particularly the tales about human ingenuity and associated technological innovation’s ability to ‘bypass’ the restrictions that the finiteness of resources creates. It is here I would recommend viewing the presentation by the late Dr. Albert Bartlett, entitled Arithmetic, Population, and Energy, that demonstrates how quickly exponential growth can overwhelm a system.

The tendency of many to deny the issues raised in their book and place their faith in technological ‘breakthroughs’ is also discussed. What I believe most of the tech-faithful don’t realise is that the vast majority of such ‘breakthroughs’ never materialise and tend to be marketing/hype to attract investment in the project being highlighted–either directly or by way of government. But ‘success’ in controlled lab settings or with small-scale trials rarely if ever can be scaled up to meet civilisational needs–if such ‘success’ is even ever realised. 

Add to this that  many ‘innovations’ are energy and/or resource intensive (sometimes even sinks), requiring the destructive extraction and refinement of materials to continue and/or grow. ‘Breakthroughs’ are often simply profit-seeking schemes perpetuated by snake oil salesmen with media complicity through the  ‘advertising’ of them. Their hype is meant to attract investors, not ‘solve’ anything for the benefit of society.

Another of the suggestions in the chapter that I have difficulty with is looking to our political systems to steer the establishment of self-sufficient communities. This is, in my opinion, misguided; as I have written about repeatedly. Subscribing to the Conflict Theory of how our governing institutions came to be and have ‘evolved’ (as opposed to Integrationist/Structural Functionalism Theory which the elite tend to push), I hold that our political systems are not the beneficent institutions we have been led to believe and that the political class and media crow on about repeatedly. 

The systems’ primary role is and has been to help the ruling caste of society control and expand the wealth-generation and -extraction systems that provide their revenue streams. They ‘kick back’ a portion of this wealth to the masses to support the narratives about them being ‘representative’ of the people and acting in their best interests, but they siphon off most of the ‘wealth’ being generated by society and extracted from Nature. They only care about the environment in their messaging, not in their actions. And they certainly take no responsibility for the consequences of these actions.

Apart from these ‘inconsistencies’, the chapter (and book) cover some of the most important issues that confront our species and planet. Perhaps the most significant aspect raised in this text is the need to protect the planet’s wildlife and the ecosystems that all species depend upon. The options for doing this ‘successfully’, I’m afraid, are few.

If humanity wishes to avoid Nature responding in ways we probably don’t want or will ‘enjoy’, it seems to me that rapid and significant degrowth is the only remaining option. Given the ‘costs’ that would be involved and who the primary societal ‘influencers’ tend to be, I am increasingly doubtful that humanity as a whole will opt for a ‘managed’ path and that Nature will have the final say in our fate.

Time, of course, will tell how this all unfolds.


Some of my personal Contemplations that discuss the above topics:

Collapse Cometh CXCV–‘Renewable’ Energy: See, Hear, and Speak No Evil, Part 1 (Website; Medium; Substack), Part 2 (Website; Medium; Substack), Part 3 (Website; Medium; Substack)

Collapse Cometh CXCII–Sorry, folks, but ‘renewables’ are NOT going to save humanity or the planet (Website; Medium; Substack)

Collapse Cometh CXCI–The Nexus of Population, Energy, Innovation, and  Complexity. (Website; Medium; Substack)

Collapse Cometh CLXXXIII-Complexity and Sustainability (Website; Medium; Substack)

Collapse Cometh CLXXXII-Tech ‘Solutions’ Are Us (Website; Medium; Substack)

Collapse Cometh CLXXXI-The Politics of Dancing: The politicians are now dj’s… (Website; Medium; Substack)

Collapse Cometh CLXXI–A ‘Solution’ to Our Predicaments: More Mass-Produced, Industrial Technologies (Website; Medium; Substack)

Collapse Cometh CLXV-Rackets: Keeping the Curtains on Reality Drawn (Website; Medium; Substack)



Summary Notes

Peak Oil, Economic Growth, and Wildlife Conservation
J.E. Gates, D.L. Trauger, & B. Czech (editors)
Springer Science and Business Media (2014)

Chapter 15: Envisioning An Alternative Future (pp. 316-339)
J.E. Gates, D.L. Trauger, & B. Czech

The authors argue that the planetary limits to growth of human activity seems imminent as does the peaking of energy production and economic growth (that will impact human populations directly). On top of this, our hydrocarbon-based industrial civilisation has contributed to destabilising our planet’s climate and the loss of biodiversity and wildlife habitat

With our population continuing to grow due to demographic momentum, in spite of falling reproductive rates in most advanced economies, we must aim to reduce our material consumption within these advanced economies to help them move towards sustainability while those experiencing widespread poverty can pursue economic growth. 

A Peak Oil recap is provided with the conclusion that humans have squandered their hydrocarbon reserves on all sorts of frivolous things. Oil has become indispensable and there is no other form of energy that can replace it.  A mythology surrounding a new oil boom has arisen in the US but it saw its best energy reserves extracted more than 70 years ago. 

Even if new reserves that are inexpensive can be discovered, it would be in the planet’ best interests to stop extracting and burning hydrocarbons since  ”exponential growth of our fossil-fuel-driven economy is accelerating biodiversity loss, and potentially contributing to irreversible planetary state shifts” (p. 318)

Whether we can adapt to an elimination of hydrocarbons depends on a number of factors including the rate of decline and lifestyle changes. A number of substitutes and technologies have been proposed to aid our weaning from hydrocarbons but they cannot provide the energy density and the cost and scale necessary is extremely problematic.. 

While environmentalists have railed against coal and oil, they have failed to consider arguing against all forms of energy production due to the continuing environmental damage from alternatives. And politicians have embraced the ‘green’ bandwagon as a way of providing jobs and stimulating the economy (while many continue to also support hydrocarbons)–they  appear more concerned about increasing energy production than what source it comes from, its costs, or the environmental impacts; their actions appear to be mostly about supporting economic growth and business as usual.

The ‘solutions’ that have been proposed to address the various hurdles are insufficient due to issues of scale and dependence upon non-renewables. In addition, the rollout of alternatives have been adding to our energy use and not resulting in a decline in hydrocarbon use.

“Many proponents of industrial-scale solar arrays and wind turbines also fail to acknowledge their detrimental impacts on wildlife species and massive alteration of wildlife habitats in many locations (southwestern deserts, forested mountain ridge-lines, prairie and sagebrush habitats); plus, these devices produce electricity, not liquid fuels that are needed” (p. 320)

Liquid fuel ‘solutions’ carry their own environmental destruction aspects, low EROEI, and have issues of scale. In fact, virtually all ’solutions’ to the predicament of Peak Oil appear to be the result of wishful thinking, delay tactics, and/or for appearance. Disentangling our societies (especially economies) from hydrocarbons is near impossible

-convincing society to pay much more for ‘renewables’ to help us is also near impossible. Hydrocarbons are likely to continue to play a role in the future despite all the negative repercussions as alternatives have not been adopted  to the scale required and as a result any action in response to possible catastrophic ecosystem collapse or climate system chaos will be too late.

Peak Economic Growth and Interest On Debt

Economic Growth
All world economies are pursuing growth (usually gauged via Gross Domestic Product; based upon personal consumption, business investment, goods and services exports, and government spending). While GDP is criticised as a measure for a variety of reasons, it does seem to be a good indicator of biodiversity loss. Anathema to economic growth is a stable or declining population/workforce and/or per capita consumption. Regardless, there must exist a limit to economic growth since the materials and energy required are of finite supply, and these limits must be recognised and respected to avoid an extended contraction and/or collapse. Growth rates are not sustainable and current growth has led to a number of negative consequences (e.g., sink overloading, biodiversity loss).

Monetary System
Our credit-/debt-based monetary system is one aspect of our economic system. To maintain this system and GDP growth, new debt must grow faster than old debt (this also ensures that loan principal plus debt is paid off). A decline in the rate of growth of the energy required to sustain these systems is resulting in increasing debt defaults with wealth being transferred to the rich (currently in the US, the top 1% of wealth-holders claim 40% of the total wealth). Such inequality has negative impacts upon social stability and are also destroying our natural assets.

Peak Nature and Earth’s Biodiversity

Mass Extinctions
Based upon past species extinctions, many biologists believe we are experiencing another Mass Extinction and caused primarily by human activity. Current extinction rates are about 1000-10,000 times higher than typical rates.

Threats To Human Health and Well-Being
Extinctions are irreversible and can have profound consequences for humans. “[T]he loss of one keystone species on which numerous other species are dependent could cause a trophic cascade, resulting in the extinctions of numerous species and compromising the functioning of the entire ecosystem. Many species also provide critical ecosystem services, such as processing wastes and recycling nutrients, at no cost to us. Other species aid in the control of pest species in agriculture and forestry, reducing the use of insecticides and treatment costs to society.” (p. 325). Plant pollinators are one such keystone species.

Anthropogenic Causes Of the Sixth Mass Extinction
Most, if not all, human activity is contributing to the mass extinction occurring; for example: ecosystem destruction, overexploitation of resources, land system changes, population growth, agriculture, pollution, introduction of invasive species. Many of these activities stem from our pursuit of economic growth. “Our sheer numbers and activities have made us a force of nature that now threatens the functioning of our planet’s life-support system.” (p. 326)

Reconnecting With the Earth

Most ignore this relatively slowly unfolding tragedy given seemingly more-pressing problems. “Trying to reconcile the cognitive dissonance that occurs in our perceptions of the future, ranging from a utopian, technological paradise to something out of “Mad Max”, can cause much mental stress and discomfort.” (p. 327) It’s easier to believe that all these ‘problems’ will be solved and we can continue with our business-as-usual path.

Existence without hydrocarbons would be vastly different from today’s modern complex societies. Hydrocarbons have provided the energy to grow our industrial civilisation and the benefits of many ‘energy slaves’. Given these are finite, either we will choose to scale them back on our own terms or this will be forced upon us. It is likely that many/most will not support purposeful contraction of their use and our economies, and will tend to blame the usual suspects when this happens. Some will claim to have ‘solutions’ if given enough power, and/or technological ‘breakthroughs’ will be heralded as the answer to Peak Oil.

Moving Toward Sustainability

Any sustainability movement should attempt to address a number of issues (e.g., resource depletion, biodiversity loss, sink overloading, etc.) and biodiversity loss should be a prominent component given its importance but it has not been. Current population growth and consumption are not sustainable (i.e., being maintained without exhaustion of resources or resulting in ecological damage).

“[W]e need to adapt our entire civilization to withstand shocks and roll with the punches of Peak Oil, resource depletion, climate change, and biodiversity loss; in other words, we need to build resilience and redundancy into our human and natural systems to increase their viability, which up until now have been shaped entirely by growth in the human economy.” (pp. 328-329)

To help transition to a shrinking economy, localised self-sufficient communities should be developed with significant rethinking about the many complexities of modern society (e.g., manufacturing, banking, transportation, governance, etc.). A more sustainable economic system is needed and should be founded in ecological economics  and aiming to reduce consumption. A more sustainable agricultural system is also required using methods that protect the environment, human health, and animal welfare–practices must protect biodiversity and foster healthy ecosystems first and foremost. Such systems require more intensive manual labour as they are less reliant upon hydrocarbons and their adoption would result in far more people being involved in food production

“However, meeting the needs of a growing population would require producing more food on the same amount of agricultural land—a daunting task without fossil-fuel energy, herbicides, pesticides, fertilizer, and hybrid and genetically engineered (GMO) crops!” (p. 330)

Human Impacts On Earth’s Biodiversity

Human activity impacts natural landscapes in a number of ways but especially edge effects that provide routes for invasive species and are created by such things as power transmission corridors, fencing, and roadways

-in many countries, roadways are the most pervasive form of fragmentation (in the US alone, there are over 6 million kilometres of mapped roads). The continuing proliferation of this particular activity is leading to increasing edge effect impacts, habitat isolation, and species extinction. While there is “little that can be done at this point in time to save pristine ecosystems and their biota…benign neglect by humans could make it even worse, speeding up extinction rates and causing ecosystems to collapse rather than degrade. Humans need functioning ecosystems to provide the ecological services on which our civilization depends for its continued existence.” (p. 332)

Managing the Biodiversity Crisis

There exist a number of operations actively attempting to address the biodiversity crisis but the challenge is beyond environmental; it is human attitudinal and trying to get people to understand the importance of functioning ecosystems and how they support human welfare. This need, however, is “often up against powerful, well-connected and ecologically illiterate developers and interest groups, who feel that their way is the only way, particularly if they can cloak their project around economic growth.” (p. 333) Past compromises to provide mitigation have failed with total protection now being the only viable option that must be communicated to decision-makers.

Human population growth and its associated consumption must be confronted. This is challenging at the best of times, but even more so as we experience energy and resource depletion, economic uncertainty, climate chaos, and social unrest.

Hope For the Future

The hope is to take the steps necessary to save biodiversity but so long as economic growth is pursued that is unlikely to occur. “We need to reassess our long-term vision for human civilization and decide what we must do now to move it toward a more sustainable future for the benefit of the planet and generations yet to come.” (p. 335)

Once we envision where we want to go, we can begin our work to get there. “We envisage a future society distinguished by a stable population and per capita consumption, a more equitable distribution of income and wealth, full recycling of materials, waste streams that the environment can easily absorb or reuse in productive ways, and use of alternative, non-fossil-fuel sources of energy. Populations will be much smaller and in dynamic balance with available resources. Improvements in infrastructure by governments will be made without consumption of fossil fuels or piling on more debt and interest on debt.” (p 335)

Achieving this may or may not be possible and a balance between consumption and the planet’s ability to regenerate resources will eventually occur, either by human choice or Nature’s rebalancing processes. We can do things better and that are ecologically healthier but must reign in the pursuit of wealth/status and develop resilient, sustainable systems. If we cannot do this, we will be confronted by collapse of our modern societies alongside the loss of large portions of our biodiversity.

The more detailed summary notes can be found here.


Recent articles of related interest:

Natural Ecosystems and Climate Stabilization

The Local System Builds Community, The Global System Destroys It

The Energy Transition That Isn’t

Energy limits are forcing the economy to contract

Complex Societies Collapse

Zooplankton study reveals how rising temperatures could lead to population crashes

EROEI and Civilization’s Forced Decline

How many more species will we let disappear?

Butterfly population in US shrinking by 22% over last 20 years, study shows | US news | The Guardian

Drill Baby Drill, Imperial Trump and the Collapse of American Energy Dominance

Acres of Amazon rainforest trees cut down to build road for climate summit

The 7 Fundamental Drivers of Overshoot – by Nate Hagens

Many U.S. bird species seen as reaching population ‘tipping point’ – The Japan Times

Reality Check: Energy Transition

Saudi Aramco, IEA Chiefs Clash In Houston Over the Future of Oil

US wild bird populations continue steep decline | Climate & Capitalism

Trump Says He’s Authorizing Use of Coal for Energy Production | The Epoch Times

Why OPEC+ is Supporting a Potentially Disastrous Rise in Oil Production | OilPrice.com

The “Energy Transition” is a Pipe Dream | Jean-Baptiste Fressoz

The Greatest Shortcoming of the Human Race Is Our Inability to Understand the Exponential Function | by Eric Lee | Mar, 2025 | Medium

Biodiversity loss in all species and every ecosystem linked to humans – report 


What is going to be my standard WARNING/ADVICE going forward and that I have reiterated in various ways before this:

“Only time will tell how this all unfolds but there’s nothing wrong with preparing for the worst by ‘collapsing now to avoid the rush’ and pursuing self-sufficiency. By this I mean removing as many dependencies on the Matrix as is possible and making do, locally. And if one can do this without negative impacts upon our fragile ecosystems or do so while creating more resilient ecosystems, all the better. 

Building community (maybe even just household) resilience to as high a level as possible seems prudent given the uncertainties of an unpredictable future. There’s no guarantee it will ensure ‘recovery’ after a significant societal stressor/shock but it should increase the probability of it and that, perhaps, is all we can ‘hope’ for from its pursuit.”


If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).

Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running). 

If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing. 

Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99

Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps… 

https://paypal.me/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US 

If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.

You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.

AND

Released September 30, 2024
It Bears Repeating: Best Of…Volume 2

A compilation of writers focused on the nexus of limits to growth, energy, and ecological overshoot.

With a Foreword by Erik Michaels and Afterword by Dr. Guy McPherson, authors include: Dr. Peter A Victor, George Tsakraklides, Charles Hugh Smith, Dr. Tony Povilitis, Jordan Perry, Matt Orsagh, Justin McAffee, Jack Lowe, The Honest Sorcerer, Fast Eddy, Will Falk, Dr. Ugo Bardi, and Steve Bull.

The document is not a guided narrative towards a singular or overarching message; except, perhaps, that we are in a predicament of our own making with a far more chaotic future ahead of us than most imagine–and most certainly than what mainstream media/politics would have us believe.

Click here to access the document as a PDF file, free to download.

 

The Bulletin: March 20-26, 2025

The Bulletin: March 20-26, 2025

Threats to U.S. Security: Aging Infrastructure, Fragile Systems, and Information Warfare

The Planet Can’t Afford AI – by Kollibri terre Sonnenblume

The Market Will Crash – Here’s When

Here is how the government will force you to enlist in the army

Sahara flooding, Amazon tributaries drying, warming tipping over 1.5°C—2024 broke all the wrong records

Infrastructure is the collapse indicator no one is talking about

The “Energy Transition” is a Pipe Dream | Jean-Baptiste Fressoz

Health Prepping: Stop Poisoning Yourself, Part 1

True Wealth

Americans See the Risks but Still Do Nothing

The Nuclear War Plan for Iran – Ken Klippenstein

Energy CEOs Ask Canadian Party Leaders To Declare ‘Energy Crisis’, Reduce Oil And Gas Regulations | ZeroHedge

Major-power conflict ‘no longer unimaginable’, Australian intelligence review finds

Forests: The Impossible Mitigation Task – by Ugo Bardi

Trump Invokes Wartime Powers to Boost U.S. Critical Minerals Output | OilPrice.com

How NATO provoked Russia in Ukraine and prevented peace

The Eternal Present: The Good That’s Been Forgotten Has Been Lost

We are in the middle of a climate apocalypse. But do we really care? | The Indian Express

Andean Glaciers Threaten Million People

The Evolution of Modernity – resilience

How Decades Of Factory Farming Paved the Way For Today’s Superbugs Crisis

Is the AI juice worth the carbon squeeze?

The Nuclear Non-Solution – The Honest Sorcerer

The Mad Scramble for Power: Global Superpowers’ Strategies for Energy, Economics, and War

Hegseth Orders Additional Carrier To Middle East Amid Yemen Escalation | ZeroHedge

The Coming Population Crash

A Hidden Risk That Could Trigger Financial Collapse

Iran in the Crosshairs. Mike Whitney – Global Research

Ishmael Overview | Do the Math

How to Die by Living: A User’s Guide to Modern Collapse

Scientists Warn Major Glaciers Won’t ‘Survive This Century,’ With Grave Impacts for Billions | Common Dreams

Scientists identify ‘tipping point’ that caused clumps of toxic Florida seaweed

EPA Considers Giving Oil and Gas Companies More ‘Flexibility’ to Dispose of Highly Toxic Wastewater – Inside Climate News

From deluges to drought: Climate change speeds up water cycle, triggers more extreme weather

Microplastics: a quick beginner’s guide | by The Medium Newsletter | Mar, 2025

Canada Pressures Social Media to Censor Election Content

America’s Self-Destruction Continues


If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).

Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running). 

If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing. 

Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99

Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps… 

https://paypal.me/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US 

If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.

You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.

The Bulletin:  March 13-19, 2025

The Bulletin:  March 13-19, 2025

 


CLICK HERE


The Great Gas Pipeline Caper of 2025 – by Terry Cowan

BlackRock CEO Says American ‘Practicalism’ Can ‘Make Energy Great’ | The Epoch Times

Some Psychology for Responding To a World in Chaos

Can We Feed Ourselves Just out of Our Vegetable Gardens?

The Lost Art of Grieving: Grief as Ritual, Resistance, and Resilience

Welcome to the Era of Energy Realism – by Roger Pielke Jr.

We Have Even Less Time than We Thought to Get Ready for Collapse

Canada’s critical minerals and why Trump wants them

What about installing solar arrays on farms? Isn’t that a good use of land?

You’re Not Special

Acres of Amazon rainforest trees cut down to build road for climate summit

Eukaryotic phytoplankton decline due to ocean acidification could significantly impact global carbon cycle

‘The riskometer has been going up all the time’: Tim Lenton on tipping points – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

When Dissent Becomes a Crime: The War on Political Speech Begins – Global Research

Power and Control- The Vast Censorship Enterprise

The 2027 American War with Canada — A Soldier’s Perspective

The Ponzi Is Crumbling – by Lau Vegys

Mind-Boggling: Microplastics are Blotting Out Photosynthesis

The 7 Fundamental Drivers of Overshoot – by Nate Hagens

The twilight of American hegemony – Collapse Life

Surviving Collapse: Mobility

You’ve Got a Blackout in Pennsylvania | RealClearWire

Doug Casey on Fort Knox, Government Secrecy, and the True Role of Gold

9 Takeaways from the JP Morgan Chase Energy Study You Won’t Want to Miss

Many U.S. bird species seen as reaching population ‘tipping point’ – The Japan Times

Blooming Neo-Imperialism

Europe Faces Late-Winter Test to Its Energy System Resilience | OilPrice.com

Masters of the Universe

What’s the Difference Between “Surplus” and “Waste”? The Waste Is Waste High Quality of Life Economy.

The Global Reset: Energy, Geopolitics, and Market Upheaval | Art Berman

Throwing the Monkey Wrench Into the System

A Civilisation Built on Conflict and Supremacy – George Tsakraklides

Alexa’s Privacy Backtrack: Amazon Pushes All Voice Data to the Cloud

“Beyond Reasonable Doubt”: Former MI6 Head Told Boris Johnson COVID-19 “Was Engineered In The WIV” | ZeroHedge

Degrowth: Sanity in Spiraling Chaos – by Geoffrey Deihl

Saudi Aramco, IEA Chiefs Clash In Houston Over the Future of Oil

Accelerationism

US Treasury Slashes Cash Reporting Threshold to $200, Expanding Financial Surveillance in Border Areas

Trump Is Now At War With Iran

In likely message to Iran, Israeli and US air forces carry out joint drill with heavy bomber | The Times of Israel

US wild bird populations continue steep decline | Climate & Capitalism

Jeff Currie’s “New Joule Order”—A Compelling but Flawed Energy Framework | Art Berman

The Ball Comes to Rest | Do the Math

Trump Says He’s Authorizing Use of Coal for Energy Production | The Epoch Times

Is 100 Years Of Cheap Food Coming To An End?

Shut Up About Trump, It’s Not Resistance

Trump Positions US Military For Imminent War With Iran


If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).

Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running). 

If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing. 

Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99

Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps… 

https://paypal.me/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US 

If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.

You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.

Today’s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh CC–‘Olduvai’: What’s It All About?

Today’s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh CC–
‘Olduvai’: What’s It All About?

Permit me some self-indulgence by way of sharing what my writing is all about for this my 200th Contemplation. This is especially intended for those relatively new to my writing but might also provide some ‘insights’ for those who have been following me for some time.

Sometime in late 2010 I rented the documentary Collapse and my view of the world changed almost overnight.” 

This is how I lead off the ‘About’ section on my personal website that I posted online more than a dozen years ago. It’s been one hell of a rollercoaster ride since that ‘fateful’ videotape viewing which subsequently altered my perspective on almost everything. 

That ‘Star Trek’ future I believed our species and planet were headed towards began to fade rather quickly from my vision. I subsequently travelled through the various stages of grief as my view took on a new, far more uncertain and far less ‘utopian’ perspective.

I have tried to raise awareness with my family and close friends of the impending consequences for and the increasing fragility of our society’s complexities–not with much success, I might add; most prefer to hold onto the comforting narratives of modernity lasting forever and a day. Nowadays, I only discuss the topic within my personal social circle if someone else initiates some concerns.

I believe I have finally reached the stage of acceptance with the realisation that there’s little that our species can do to avoid the negative impacts of pursuing infinite growth on a finite planet (and has resulted in ecological overshoot)–a pursuit that seems to have started off unintentionally and innocently enough, but has become the dominant ‘force’ driving planetary ‘events’ for some time now. Even if humanity were to stop our ecologically-destructive behaviours immediately, the momentum that’s been initiated will ensure some of the worst consequences will still arrive regardless of efforts by our species. 

My fall down the rabbit’s hole of Peak Oil and Ecological Overshoot have resulted in this journey of putting ‘pen to paper’ to express my thoughts. It began as a cathartic exercise with a few chapter drafts of a fictional sojourn by a number of Canadians caught up within and by the repercussions of a failing world. A ‘project’ I initiated due to my long-lived enjoyment of writing and wanting to express my thinking about my reading and ‘research’, even if it was just going to be for my personal use. This eventually transformed into the self-publication of a novel trilogy and the periodic online Contemplations I’ve posted for the last couple of years based on my ‘learnings’. 

My view on things continues to morph and ‘muddy’ (there’s a reason for the saying ‘the more I learn, the more I realise how much I don’t know’). What began as a belief that we could ‘science-our-way-out-of’ the various predicaments we face–especially via our ingenuity and technology–is no longer where I find myself; in fact, far from it. Complexity of the universe and our species’ cognition (particularly its rationalising nature) has me currently questioning almost everything, but especially the dominant ‘stories’ that are told and are meant to help us comprehend (very poorly) the world and continue to pursue ‘business-as-usual’. 

Whether my present beliefs are an accurate reflection of our exceedingly complex world is yet to be determined, I suppose–especially given all the psychological mechanisms, cognitive distortions, and machinations by others that influence my (and everyone’s) perceptions. 

Regardless, below you will find what one of the Large Language Model ‘Artificial Intelligence’ programmes states my writings are all about. These summaries can serve as an introduction and/or detailing of my writing and its orientation for those relatively new to my work which–if the number of subscribers to my various platforms are accurate, and they’re not picking up too many ‘fake’ profiles–has been increasing nicely over the past year or two. 

Before I share these, however, I’d like to take a moment to thank all the people that have purchased close to 700 copies of my novels over the years. I’d love it to be millions more with a television series or major motion picture in the works but, hey, I had a tongue-in-cheek goal of selling 423 copies when I set out self-publishing my initial novel (1 more copy than John Cusack’s character in the movie 2012) and reached that a couple of years ago so all is good. Dwindling sales don’t come close to covering the fees to keep the first novel in print and/or the ever-increasing website/internet fees; however, this was always more of a self-indulgent hobby so, again, all is good. I will, hopefully, continue to keep doing this enjoyable ‘obsession’ for some time. 

As well, I’d like to thank Ron E. who a couple of weeks ago (completely unsolicited) asked how he could financially support my work beyond purchasing the trilogy and motivated me to add the option to ‘Buy Me A Coffee’. A special thank you to Ron and, of course, to the close to 800  ‘followers’ that have signed up to check in on my writing from time to time; I hope you find the writing informative and thought-provoking.

And, finally, a big thank you to the other writers/thinkers with whom I’ve had the pleasure to interact with in a variety of ways. From social media conversations to co-operative writing projects and to personal text messages; your feedback and thoughts are greatly appreciated–even if we don’t always see eye-to-eye. 

Without further ado, I offer the following ‘AI’ summaries in chronological order of my writing. First off is my ‘fictional’ novel, Olduvai, penned mostly in 2012 but had its roots in 2011 after a year of reading all I could in an attempt to better understand the late Michael Ruppert’s claims made in the documentary featuring him, Collapse, mentioned above. 

Second, is my website that was prompted by the company I self-published my novel through (see here) who suggested that I create an online presence to help market the book.

Finally, a summary of my Today’s Contemplations (Website; Medium; Substack) that I have been writing for the past couple of years. 

I believe the summaries have captured relatively well the essence of my work. I leave it to those familiar with it to agree or disagree. For those relatively new to my work, you can check out a ‘mostly’ updated list of my ‘publications’ here


Olduvai Novel

Steve Bull’s novel ‘Olduvai’ is a post-apocalyptic thriller that explores themes of societal collapse, survival, and the fragility of modern civilization. The story is set in a dystopian future where humanity faces a catastrophic breakdown of infrastructure and resources, often referred to as the ‘Olduvai theory’ or ‘Olduvai Gorge theory’. This theory, popularized by Richard C. Duncan, suggests that industrial civilization will have a lifespan of approximately 100 years, after which society will revert to a pre-industrial state.

In the novel, the Olduvai theory serves as the backdrop for a gripping tale of survival as the world descends into chaos. The characters must navigate a collapsing society, dwindling energy supplies, and the breakdown of social order. The story often focuses on the struggles of individuals and groups as they attempt to adapt to a world where technology and modern conveniences are no longer available, and survival depends on resourcefulness, resilience, and often brutal decision-making.

Bull’s ‘Olduvai’ is a dark and thought-provoking exploration of humanity’s vulnerability and the potential consequences of over-reliance on finite resources. It appeals to fans of post-apocalyptic fiction and those interested in speculative scenarios about the future of civilization.


Olduvai Website

Steve Bull’s website, olduvai.ca, serves as a platform for his writings and reflections on topics related to societal collapse, resource depletion, sustainability, and the challenges facing modern civilization. The site is heavily influenced by the ‘Olduvai theory’, a concept popularized by Richard C. Duncan, which suggests that industrial civilization has a limited lifespan and will eventually revert to a pre-industrial state due to the depletion of finite resources, particularly fossil fuels.

Key features of olduvai.ca include:

  1. Essays and Articles: Steve Bull shares his contemplations on issues such as energy depletion, economic instability, environmental degradation, and the potential for societal collapse. These writings often critique the unsustainable practices of modern society and explore possible futures.
  2. Olduvai Theory: The website provides an in-depth exploration of the Olduvai theory, explaining its implications for humanity and how it might play out in the coming decades.
  3. Sustainability and Resilience: Bull discusses strategies for adapting to a post-collapse world, emphasizing self-sufficiency, local solutions, and the importance of community resilience.
  4. Critiques of Modern Society: The site often critiques the over-reliance on technology, globalization, and economic growth, arguing that these systems are inherently fragile and unsustainable.
  5. Personal Reflections: Bull shares his personal thoughts and experiences, offering a candid and often sobering perspective on the state of the world and humanity’s future.

Overall, olduvai.ca is a thought-provoking resource for those interested in peak oil, sustainability, and the potential collapse of industrial civilization. It encourages readers to think critically about the trajectory of modern society and to consider alternative ways of living that are more aligned with the planet’s limits.


Today’s Contemplation

Steve Bull’s ‘Today’s Contemplation’ is a series of essays or reflections that delve into themes related to societal collapse, resource depletion, and the challenges facing modern civilization. Drawing inspiration from the ‘Olduvai theory’—a concept popularized by Richard C. Duncan, which posits that industrial civilization has a limited lifespan and will eventually revert to a pre-industrial state—Bull’s writings often explore the fragility of our current way of life.

In ‘Today’s Contemplation’, Bull discusses topics such as:

  1. ‘Energy Depletion’: The reliance on finite fossil fuels and the potential consequences of dwindling energy resources.
  2. ‘Economic Instability’: The vulnerabilities of global economic systems and the potential for collapse as resources become scarcer.
  3. ‘Environmental Degradation’: The impact of human activity on the planet, including climate change, deforestation, and pollution.
  4. ‘Societal Collapse’: The possibility of a breakdown in social order, infrastructure, and governance as resources become increasingly strained.
  5. ‘Human Resilience’: Reflections on how individuals and communities might adapt to a post-collapse world, emphasizing self-sufficiency and local solutions.

Bull’s work is often critical of the unsustainable trajectory of modern society and serves as a warning about the potential consequences of ignoring the limits of growth and resource consumption. His contemplations are thought-provoking and appeal to readers interested in sustainability, peak oil, and the broader implications of humanity’s impact on the planet.


What is going to be my standard WARNING/ADVICE going forward and that I have reiterated in various ways before this:

“Only time will tell how this all unfolds but there’s nothing wrong with preparing for the worst by ‘collapsing now to avoid the rush’ and pursuing self-sufficiency. By this I mean removing as many dependencies on the Matrix as is possible and making do, locally. And if one can do this without negative impacts upon our fragile ecosystems or do so while creating more resilient ecosystems, all the better. 

Building community (maybe even just household) resilience to as high a level as possible seems prudent given the uncertainties of an unpredictable future. There’s no guarantee it will ensure ‘recovery’ after a significant societal stressor/shock but it should increase the probability of it and that, perhaps, is all we can ‘hope’ for from its pursuit.”


If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).

Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running). 

If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing. 

Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99

Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps… 

https://paypal.me/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US 

If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.

You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.

AND

Released September 30, 2024
It Bears Repeating: Best Of…Volume 2

A compilation of writers focused on the nexus of limits to growth, energy, and ecological overshoot.

With a Foreword by Erik Michaels and Afterword by Dr. Guy McPherson, authors include: Dr. Peter A Victor, George Tsakraklides, Charles Hugh Smith, Dr. Tony Povilitis, Jordan Perry, Matt Orsagh, Justin McAffee, Jack Lowe, The Honest Sorcerer, Fast Eddy, Will Falk, Dr. Ugo Bardi, and Steve Bull.

The document is not a guided narrative towards a singular or overarching message; except, perhaps, that we are in a predicament of our own making with a far more chaotic future ahead of us than most imagine–and most certainly than what mainstream media/politics would have us believe.

Click here to access the document as a PDF file, free to download.

The Bulletin: March 6-12, 2025

The Bulletin: March 6-12, 2025



CLICK HERE


Oil & gas extraction’s move offshore: Trends and risks – Global Energy Monitor 

How Are Microplastics Getting into Our Brain? | Scientific American

Solar and Wind Energy Are Surging But CO2 Is Still Climbing Because of Natural Gas Use | Scientific American

The Collapse of Belief – by Ugo Bardi – The Seneca Effect

The Age of Territorial Expansion | Michael Albertus

Zooplankton study reveals how rising temperatures could lead to population crashes

The Difference Between Hope (Fear) and Courage (No Fear)

Clear-cutting is Clear-cutting, No Matter Where the Trees are From

The Deep State’s War on Truth—Waged with Doublespeak, Delusion and Propaganda – Global Research

President Trump Has Exposed the U.S Side of the Proxy War by Disabling Ukraine Access to U.S. Missile and Drone Targeting Systems – The Last Refuge

“$1 Trillion Labyrinth”: Canada’s Brookfield Investigated By FT For Self-Dealing, Complex Financials | ZeroHedge

As Globalism Breaks, Nations Must Produce Their Own Survival Necessities – Alt-Market.us

EROEI and Civilization’s Forced Decline

Butterfly population in US shrinking by 22% over last 20 years, study shows | US news | The Guardian

Trump is no free speech warrior, he is just as guilty of censorship as Biden

Introducing “Project 451” – by Matt Taibbi – Racket News

A Love Letter to My Old Home – Biocentric with Max Wilbert

Plastic Triggered a New Geological Epoch—and the Evidence May Be in Bird Nests

If You’re Preparing for Collapse, Don’t Forget Your Survival Helmet

Dealing With Crises, Chaos, and Collapse | how to save the world

When Corruption Is the Path – Peak Prosperity

Until Debt Tear Us Apart – The Honest Sorcerer

Science Snippets: WaPo Continues Misleading Its Readership

Climate Change Threatens Earth’s Major Crops, Study Finds – EcoWatch

Going Cold Turkey In Our Addiction Economy

So It Begins: The Disappearing Of Mahmoud Khalil and Authoritarian Capture

Price of Natural Gas Futures Up 140% Year-over-Year: One More Reason for Inflation to Not Back off Easily | Wolf Street

Our Planet-Sized Gordian Knot

We Are Duped Into Blaming Our Problems On Everyone Except Our Rulers

NZ’s glaciers have already lost nearly a third of their ice—as more vanishes, landscapes and lives change

Reuters Fake Fact Check Fails Again – by Paul D. Thacker

Canada First – Trump Unites Canada and Mexico Against the US – MishTalk

URGENT WARNING: Trump is Planning to Invade Canada & Greenland

The Simple Routine That Slashes Your Cancer Risk by 60%

More Guns, Less Butter: Starmer’s Defence Spending Splash – Global Research


If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).

Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running). 

If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing. 

Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99

Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps… 

https://paypal.me/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US 

If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.

You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.

Olduvai IV: Courage
Click on image to read excerpts

Olduvai II: Exodus
Click on image to purchase

Click on image to purchase @ FriesenPress