Home » Posts tagged 'central banks'

Tag Archives: central banks

Olduvai
Click on image to purchase

Olduvai III: Catacylsm
Click on image to purchase

Post categories

Have Central Banks Crossed the Line into Tyranny?

With all the conspiracy theories that somehow the bankers are the real culprits in creating excess money supply, there has been an evolution in central banks that has finally crossed the line since 2019. The Federal Reserve was, once upon a time, responsible. The Fed was originally designed as an authority to create money, which was an elastic money supply. That made perfect sense when the Fed was designed in 1913.

Yes, the bankers owned the shares BECAUSE the Fed was actually designed to do what JP Morgan did in herding the bankers together to save the day during the Panic of 1907. Morgan convinced the bankers that if they did not chip in money to bail out the troubled banks, panic would unfold, and ALL the banks would be hit as a contagion. They listened and joined his effort to stem the Panic of 1907. The design of the Fed was to recreate what JP Morgan put together. The shareholders were the bankers because it was a bail-out fund for the bankers, and TAXPAYER money should not be used to bail out the bankers.

Democrat President Woodrow Wilson signed the 1913 Act, creating the Federal Reserve as well as the income tax. Wilson signed the Revenue Act of 1913, which lowered average tariff rates from 40 percent to 26 percent. It also established a one percent tax on income above $3,000 per year; the tax affected approximately three percent of the population. The Federal Reserve, as designed, was independent, and thus there was the Fed policy v fiscal policy set by Congress.

The elastic money was a brilliant idea where the Fed would buy-in corporate paper to provide lending of the last resort when the bankers could not lend due to the hoarding of cash in a crisis. The corporate paper was typically 90 days…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

A Self-Fulfilling Prophecy: Systemic Collapse and Pandemic Simulation

A year and a half after the arrival of Virus, some may have started wondering why the usually unscrupulous ruling elites decided to freeze the global profit-making machine in the face of a pathogen that targets almost exclusively the unproductive (over 80s). Why all the humanitarian zeal? Cui bono? Only those who are unfamiliar with the wondrous adventures of GloboCap can delude themselves into thinking that the system chose to shut down out of compassion. Let us be clear from the start: the big predators of oil, arms, and vaccines could not care less about humanity.

Follow the money

In pre-Covid times, the world economy was on the verge of another colossal meltdown. Here is a brief chronicle of how the pressure was building up:

June 2019: In its Annual Economic Report, the Swiss-based Bank of International Settlements (BIS), the ‘Central Bank of all central banks’, sets the international alarm bells ringing. The document highlights “overheating […] in the leveraged loan market”, where “credit standards have been deteriorating” and “collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) have surged – reminiscent of the steep rise in collateralized debt obligations [CDOs] that amplified the subprime crisis [in 2008].” Simply stated, the belly of the financial industry is once again full of junk.

9 August 2019: The BIS issues a working paper calling for “unconventional monetary policy measures” to “insulate the real economy from further deterioration in financial conditions”. The paper indicates that, by offering “direct credit to the economy” during a crisis, central bank lending “can replace commercial banks in providing loans to firms.”

15 August 2019: Blackrock Inc., the world’s most powerful investment fund (managing around $7 trillion in stock and bond funds), issues a white paper titled Dealing with the next downturn. Essentially, the paper instructs the US Federal Reserve to inject liquidity directly into the financial system to prevent “a dramatic downturn.”…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Seven Possible Causes of the Next Financial Crisis

The great financial historian, Charles Kindleberger, pointed out in the 1970s that over several centuries, history showed there was a financial crisis about once every ten years. His observation still holds. In every decade since his classic Manias, Panics and Crashes of 1978, such crises have indeed continued to erupt in their turn, in the 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, 2010s, and again in 2020. What could cause the next crisis in this long, recurring series? I suggest seven possibilities:

1. What Nobody Sees Coming

A notable headline from 2017 was “Yellen: I Don’t See a Financial Crisis Coming in Our Lifetimes.” The then-head of the Federal Reserve was right that she didn’t see it coming; nonetheless, well within her and our lifetimes, a new financial crisis arrived in 2020, from unexpected causes.

It has been well said that “The riskiest stuff is what you don’t see coming.” Especially risky is what you don’t think is possible, but happens anyway.

About the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-09, a former Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve candidly observed: “Not only didn’t we see it coming,” but in the midst of it, “had trouble understanding what was happening.” Similarly, “Central banks and regulators failed to see the bust coming, just as they failed to anticipate its potential magnitude,” as another top central banking expert wrote.

The next financial crisis could be the same—we may take another blindside hit for a big financial sack.

In his memoir of the 2007-09 crisis, former Secretary of the Treasury Henry Paulson wrote, “We had no choice but to fly by the seat of our pants, making it up as we went along.” If the next financial crisis is again triggered by what we don’t see coming, the government reactions will once again be flying by the seat of their pants, making it up as they go along.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Central Bank Visions of Absolute Control

Central Bank Visions of Absolute Control

There’s not much you can do in the year 2021 that doesn’t leave a digital trail.  The collusion of big tech and big government has assured this.

Still, there does remain one simple way to elude the busybodies.  In fact, one of the last ways to preserve some level of economic privacy is to pay with cash.

Because when you pay with cash the authorities cannot monitor and track what you buy.  They don’t know if the cash you pulled from the ATM was stuffed in your mattress, or used to buy groceries or ammo or silver coins.  What’s more, the authorities don’t like this.

The control freak central planners want to know what you are buying, and where and when you are buying.  They also want to know how much you spend down to the very last cent.  A digital dollar, coupled with the abolition of cash, would allow them to do this.  Moreover, it would provide them the ability to have full control over every transaction you make.

For example, if a purchase falls outside of the parameters established by the digital dollar’s monitoring algorithm, it could be cancelled on the spot.  Should an attempted purchase not align with the buyers social credit score it would not go through.  Are you overweight?  Then no glazed donuts for you.

To be clear, digital dollars would have nothing to do with cryptocurrencies or decentralized finance.  Rather, digital dollars would be issued by the Federal Reserve and would allow the Fed to monitor and control every transaction you make.

Absolute Control

Certainly, with digital dollars, control over how you spend your money could be executed in countless ways.  Monthly limits could be placed on how much you’re allowed to spend.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Desperate Money Printing Leads to Depression – Dr. Marc Faber

Desperate Money Printing Leads to Depression – Dr. Marc Faber

Legendary investor, economist and market forecaster Dr. Marc Faber thinks central banks (CB) are not going to cut back the money printing.  Just the opposite.  He predicts CBs are going to print even more money at a faster pace to hold the failing economic system together for a little while longer.  Dr. Faber explains, “What is perceived to be safe, namely cash, isn’t safe anymore.  It is unsafe.  You ask me what is safe?  I don’t know what is safe anymore when you have money printers who print money indefinitely.  I don’t think they can stop.  I actually think they have to accelerate their money printing.  So, stocks may go up, but in real terms, it doesn’t mean your standard of living will go up.  Maybe the standard of living of the 50 richest people in the world will go up, but not the standard of living of the typical American . . . or the average American.  That standard of living will go down. . . . All the money printing is a desperate measure to keep the voters from rebellion.”

Dr. Farber predicts that not only are we going to see more asset inflation, but dramatic wage inflation too.  Dr. Faber, who holds a PhD in economics, says, “What I think will happen, and most people have not really considered, we will get wage inflation.  For the first time since the late 1970’s, we will get accelerating wage inflation, and in some cases, quite dramatic.   In some states, the minimum wage is $15.  I could see that going up to $30 per hour very quickly.  I don’t think inflation is ‘transitory’ (as the Fed proclaims).  We will not have stagflation.  We will have something worse.  We will have rising prices and a depression in the standard of living of most people.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

 

The ECB is the Reason We Have the Great Reset

The European Central Bank (ECB) has kept its monetary policy unchanged. However, it did slow down the pace of net asset purchases under its pandemic emergency purchase program. The ECB’s main refinancing operations remain at 0%, on the marginal lending facility at 0.25%, and on the deposit facility at -0.5%. The ECB said that it believes that “favourable [sic] financing conditions can be maintained with a moderately lower pace of net asset purchases under the (PEPP) than in the previous two quarters.”

The junkies think what the central banks have to say is still relevant and are eagerly waiting for word to come down from above to see if their unwinding of pandemic-era stimulus in the face of surging inflation would take place. That seems like reading a nice bedtime story to the kids so they sleep with pleasant dreams. The ECB reiterated that interest rates will remain at their present or lower levels until inflation is seen reaching 2% “well ahead of the end of its projection horizon and durably for the rest of the projection horizon,” and until the ECB determines that inflation will stabilize at 2% over the medium-term.

It is really extraordinary to think that there will ever be a return to normal. The ECB has had negative interest rates since 2014. The Federal Reserve warned the ECB that they could get trapped. The warnings were coming in, and even in 2016, the London Evening Standard warned of the black hole of negative interest rates. This entire Great Reset is now due to the fiscal mismanagement of governments and central banks. Those who still think there will be some return to normal finance are no doubt those wearing masks and lining up for booster shots every six months. They can’t wait for the new Pfizer daily pills as well and are ready to listen to Bill Gates and never buy beef again.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Is Anyone Willing to Call the Top of the Everything Bubble?

Is Anyone Willing to Call the Top of the Everything Bubble?

Can extremes become too extreme to continue higher? We’re about to find out.

Is anyone willing to call the top of the Everything bubble? The short answer is no. Anyone earning money managing other people’s money cannot afford to be wrong, and so everyone in the herd prevaricates on timing. The herd has seen what happens to those who call the top and then twist in the wind as the market continues rocketing higher.

Money managers live in segments of three months. If you miss one quarter, the clock starts ticking. If the S&P 500 beats your fund’s return a second time because you were bearish in a bubble, your doom is sealed.

When the bubble finally pops and everyone but a handful of secretive Bears is crushed, the rationalization will cover everyone’s failure: “nobody could have seen this coming.”

Actually, everyone can see it coming, but the tsunami of central bank liquidity has washed away any semblance of rationality. My friend and colleague Zeus Y. recently summarized the consequences of this decoupling of markets and reality:

“I used to be with the Bears until the uncoupling was complete when the Fed started guaranteeing non-investment grade junk bonds. At that point, any semblance of sanity, much less probity, much less integrity was gone. Rinse and repeat with digital dollars going into the tens and even hundreds of trillions of dollars.

For two decades we fiscal sanity-ists have been assuming SOME baseline reality. I see none in sight and still plenty of assets to plunder and pump and still resources to suck and suckers to shake down. The system is running hot and wild on its own algorithms, and actual people are lying back and simply lapping up the “passive” income created by delusion-made-reality.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

Facing Inflation Threat, German Investors Loading Up on Gold

Facing Inflation Threat, German Investors Loading Up on Gold

While most American investors have faith that the Federal Reserve can and will successfully tighten monetary policy to fight inflation — or have simply bought into the “transitory” inflation narrative — Germans are loading up on gold as a hedge against growing inflationary pressures.

Through the first half of the year, gold coin and gold bar demand in Germany hit the highest level since 2009 – the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. First-half demand for bar and coins in Germany increased by 35% from the previous six months, compared with a 20% increase in the rest of the world, according to World Gold Council data.

Raphael Scherer serves as the managing director at Philoro Edelmetalle GmbH. He told Bloomberg that gold sales for the company are up 25% on what was already a strong 2020.

We have a long history of inflation fear in our DNA. Now the inflation risk is picking up. The outlook for precious metals is very positive.”

Given Germany’s experience with hyperinflation under the Weimar Republic, it comes as no surprise that Germans are wary of inflation.

Gold investment took off in the country in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis and has been strong ever since. The global recession after the ’08 meltdown led to extremely loose monetary policy in Germany. The country has been in a negative interest rate environment for several years, and the Bundesbank has done billions in quantitative easing. Two and five-year government bonds have traded at negative yields since 2015.

The World Gold Council summarized why Germans tend to turn to gold when inflation looms.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

After the Gold Standard, Government Grew While the Dollar Shrank

Why ending the gold standard led to a bigger government and a smaller dollar

As The Hill’s Robert P. Murphy notes, most Americans associate the end of the gold standard and the ensuing dollar erosion with Nixon and his 1971 decision to “close the gold window.” In truth, however, the U.S. dollar was weakening long before that, something that can be explained by evaluating the length of the tether between gold and the dollar.

Between our nation’s founding and the Civil War, there was practically no difference between gold and currency. U.S. coins were minted with face values based on the quantity and price of gold or silver they contained. This kind of policy minimized the government’s role in monetary issues. Instead of being stored in vaults, the nation’s precious metals circulated. This decision essentially allowed the public to dictate monetary policy based on natural supply of the metals: individuals presented gold or silver to the U.S. Mint to be manufactured into into coins.

The Civil War saw the first shift away from this approach, when paper notes not immediately redeemable in gold and silver coins were issued by both the Union and the Confederate states (primarily to pay for war efforts). Both sides engaged in inflation, an obvious temptation when no other controls exist on money issue.

Between 1879 and 1914, the government did away with silver monetization, but restored convertibility between the dollar and gold with a roughly $20.67 an ounce ratio. By this time, however, the view of paper as money had already established itself. So long as a $5 bill and a $5 gold coin are fungible (interchangeable, with no loss of value between them), carrying $100 in paper money is just more convenient than carrying $100 in coins.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Inflation, Covid, Central Banks and Politics – about half the things to really worry about…

Inflation, Covid, Central Banks and Politics – about half the things to really worry about…

As markets shake off their summer slumbers, what should we be worrying about? Lots..! From real vs transitory inflation arguments, the long-term economic consequences of Covid, the future for Central Banking unable to unravel its Gordian knot of monetary experimentation, and the prospects for rising political instability in the US and Europe.

“How many divisions does the Pope have?”

This morning: As markets shake off their summer slumbers, what should we be worrying about? Lots..! From real vs transitory inflation arguments, the long-term economic consequences of Covid, the future for Central Banking unable to unravel its Gordian knot of monetary experimentation, and the prospects for rising political instability in the US and Europe.

Same as, same as….  

Not an Apology

I’ve been told I should apologise for yesterday’s Porridge. A reader unsubscribed because I don’t treat Tesla seriously. (Shock, horror.. somehow I shall live with the pain of rejection…) Another commented: “hating Tesla must be a very difficult way to make a living.” Sure. I agree – it is. In my private Jihad versus Elon Musk I have missed massive market upside… but then again, it’s not my job to pump up illusory market valuations. It’s to paint the picture as I see it, and caution foolish markets about their gullibility. I will continue to characterise Tesla as an unjustifiably overpriced automaker, pretending to be something else, run by a narcissistic show-boater.

Meanwhile…

What should we really be worrying about?……

  • China?
  • US Politics in the wake of the Afghan Skedaddle?
  • Overpriced Markets and Asset Bubbles?
  • The future of Tech and ESG?
  • Central Banks trapped by the consequences of their own monetary experimentation?
  • Boom or Bust post Covid Economies?
  • Inflation, Deflation or Stagflation?

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Fed Says, “Let Me Squeeze Your Dollars…5 Basis Points at a Time”

The Fed Says, “Let Me Squeeze Your Dollars…5 Basis Points at a Time”

I still maintain no one will mark June 16th, 2021 as the day the world changed. Watching the dollar surge into this weekend thanks to a breakdown in the euro only validates that conclusion in my mind.

Remember, on June 16th Presidents Biden and Putin met for a summit which altered the course of geopolitics forever, agreeing to disagree about Nordstream 2 and reversing the worst of U.S./Russian relations among other things.

While that was happening the FOMC met and reversed the flow of dollars globally.

I told my Patrons something was up on June 18th. Then I did 2 hours worth of podcasts on it (herehere, and here) after thinking it through. Finally, after fully digesting it I wrapped it all up in a lengthy post on July 3rd.

The Fed’s decision to pay 5 basis point on Reverse Repos was the subtlest but most effective way to taper without tapering, tighten without tightening and undermine the WEF’s Great Reset while seemingly still supporting it.

I can hear the howls from the gallery who think otherwise so I’ll address them first.

Yes, normie macro-guys, the bond market has been screaming at the Fed that inflation is soaring and they need to raise rates.

Yes, first year domestic policy students, the Fed looks like it is putting pressure on Republicans to cave to Nancy Pelosi’s hardball over the Infrastructure, Budget and Debt Ceiling deadlock, so far to no avail.

Yes, second year geopolitics students, the Fed is forcing China to respond to soaring commodity prices while simultaneously trying to defend the yuan.

Yes, these are all effects of the Fed’s move in June.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

A Look Back at Nixon’s Infamous Monetary Policy Decision

Putting the World on a Paper Standard

Half a century ago one of the most disastrous monetary policy decisions in US history was committed by Richard Nixon.  In a television address, the president declared that the nation would no longer redeem internationally dollars for gold.  Since the dollar was the world’s reserve currency, Nixon’s closing of the “Gold Window” put the world on an irredeemable paper monetary standard.

Richard Nixon during his televised speech on the “temporary” closing of the gold window (effectively a debt default). [PT]

The ramifications of the act reverberate to this very day.  America’s current financial mess, budget deficits, the reoccurring booms and busts, the decline of living standards (particularly the middle class), all have their genesis with Nixon’s infamous decision in August, 1971.

Culmination of a Long-Term Plan  

Abandoning the last vestiges of the gold standard was the culmination of a long-term plan of the banksters, politicians, financial elites, and deceitful economists.  The first step was the establishment of the Federal Reserve in 1913 whose primary purpose was to allow its member banks to inflate the money supply without fearing the consequences – bank failures/panics, bank runs, recessions/depressions.  The Fed could, and still does, through the control of the money supply enrich itself, the government, and its aligned financial elites at the expense of the public at large.

Woodrow Wilson signs the Federal Reserve Act in late 1913 – conveniently just half a year before WW1 breaks out.. [PT]

The next step on the road to monetary debasement was Franklin Roosevelt’s draconian measure of outlawing the private ownership of gold.  This was not only an unprecedented and outrageous attack on private property, but it also eliminated gold redemption of dollars domestically, which gave the Fed unlimited power to print money without fear of its notes being redeemed.

FDR’s decree outlawing private gold ownership in the US. [PT]

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Central Banks Are Now in the Endgame

Central Banks Are Now in the Endgame

The $2 quadrillion debt bubble will be the central bank endgame

Central bankers were handed the Midas curse half a century ago. Midas turned everything that he touched into gold– even his own food. Exactly 50 years ago (15 Aug, 1971) central bankers were handed a much worse curse by Nixon. But instead of turning everything into gold, their curse was to turn all real assets, including gold, into worthless paper, creating the perfect setup for this central bank endgame.

Nixon had of course not studied history. Because if he had, he would have understood that his lie was $100s of trillions worse than the Watergate lies:

“THE EFFECT OF TODAY’S ACTION will be to stabilise the dollar”

Hmmmmmm!

As the chart below shows the dollar has lost 98% in real terms (GOLD) since 1971. Just a one hour history lesson would have taught Nixon that no currency has ever survived in history since all  leaders without fail have done what Nixon did.

Reminds me of the line in Pete Seeger’s song Where have all the flowers gone”:

“WHEN WILL YOU EVER LEARN, WHEN WILL YOU EVER LEARN?”

The fall of the dollar after Nixon eliminated Bretton Woods.

Well, they will never learn of course. History has taught the very few who are willing to listen that there is no exception.

Every single currency throughout history has been debased until it has reached ZERO as I outlined here.

It seems incomprehensible that presidents and central bankers have not learnt they will all play the role that their predecessors have, in destroying the nations currency.

With their arrogance, they are all obviously hoping that they can pass the baton on so that it won’t happen on their watch. And because most leaders have a relatively short reign in relation to the lifespan of a currency, they often escape even though guilty.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

A Global Liquidity Crisis Is Underway

A Global Liquidity Crisis Is Underway

I’ve been analyzing currency wars for years. In fact, I’ve written a book called Currency Wars, so I have some expertise in the subject.

A new front in the currency wars is emerging, but it has not yet erupted into blatant currency manipulation. That will probably come in early 2022.

First, we’ll likely pass through a major market disruption that will force the dollar significantly higher against other major currencies. When that disruption becomes acute and the strong dollar becomes painful for U.S. exports and export-related jobs, the U.S. Treasury will take steps to weaken the dollar.

Let’s unpack that forecast a bit.

The world has been in a currency war since 2010. That’s when then-President Obama set out to weaken the dollar in order to provide stimulus to the U.S. economy in the aftermath of the 2007-2008 global financial crisis.

The White House and the Treasury knew a weaker dollar would hurt growth in Europe and Japan, but it didn’t matter. The U.S. is the largest economy in the world. If the U.S. goes into recession, it takes the rest of the world with it.

The mission of weakening the dollar was critical to avoid another U.S. recession so soon after the 2007 – 2009 recession. Europe would have to suffer so that the U.S. and the world did not suffer more.

Truce in the Currency Wars

The policy worked. The U.S. dollar hit an all-time low on the Fed’s broad trade-weighted index in August 2011. Not surprisingly, this coincided with gold hitting a then all-time high. The euro surged, and the U.S. economy got the boost it needed.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Inflation Is Winning, and Here’s Why the Fed Seems Content To Let It Happen

The U.S. Treasury publishes its balance sheet annually. The most recent, for fiscal year 2020, is so egregiously out of whack it might be hard to wrap your head around:

Total Assets: $5.95 trillion
Total Liabilities: $32.74 trillion
Net Position (total assets minus total liabilities): -$26.80 trillion

All figures above have been rounded to the nearest billions. The net position also factors in -$3.1 billion in “unmatched transactions and balances,” which is odd. (Looks like everybody has a little trouble balancing the checkbook…)

But the obvious focus? Liabilities outweigh assets more than five to one.

How will the U.S. government try to correct this imbalance? It’s almost certain they will use one of the only tools they have: inflation.

In fact, the latest official inflation numbers have come in, which continue the trend of rising price inflation (see chart):

Consumer prices up 4.7 percent since February 2020

Graph courtesy of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Unlike the Fed, which likes to focus your attention on what Wolf Richter calls its “lowest lowball inflation measure” that ignores important prices, the BLS chart includes food and energy.

That’s bad enough. If, however, we use the same measures the Federal Reserve employed in 1990 like John Williams of ShadowStats does, the picture gets a lot worse:

July PPI Surged to New, Historic Extremes
Tempered by Unusual Factors, July CPI-U Held at 13-Year High for a Second Month, Just Shy of a 41-Year High
ShadowStats Alternate CPI Held at Its 41-Year High

Don’t let the name “ShadowStats” fool you. These numbers are based on the Federal Reserve’s own historic metrics that were retired in favor of the current, less-alarming measures.

Inflation is bad, and it doesn’t seem likely to get better any time soon…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Olduvai IV: Courage
In progress...

Olduvai II: Exodus
Click on image to purchase