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Confiscation, Weaponization, and De-Dollarization

“The dollar’s role as the world’s primary reserve currency is a boon for the United States but a bane for the rest of the world.”

~ Barry Eichengreen

The U.S. Senate has predictably voted to give $95 billion to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, just three days after the House of Representatives green-lit the assistance in a rare Saturday session.

But beyond the big spending, there was a little something tucked into the Ukrainian aid bill that’ll have major implications for you as an American: the confiscation of Russian dollar assets.

The passage of the Rebuilding Economic Prosperity and Opportunity (REPO) Act, as it’s called, adds a whole new dimension to the story that Matt Smith brought to your attention on Monday.

The Dollar Weapon

Once President Biden signs it into law, he’ll gain the authority to seize more than $6 billion in Russian assets held by U.S. institutions.

Now, in case you’re wondering why Russia held these billions of dollars outside of Russia, it’s because that’s what countries do when they have surplus dollars; they put them to work in the safe and trustworthy nation of America.

The joke’s on you, Russia…

But the $6 billion is just the tip of the iceberg.

You see, it’s not about the amount; it’s about how the U.S. sets a precedent for other Western countries to confiscate the nearly $300 billion in Russian state assets currently frozen under their jurisdiction.

To be fair, it’s not the first instance of the U.S. government’s “weaponization” of the dollar… far from it.

But it has become especially pronounced in recent years, targeting adversaries such as Iran, Cuba, Venezuela, Afghanistan, North Korea, China, and, of course, Russia.

But it never affects just these countries alone…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Ukrainian Drone Strikes Target Russian Oil Refineries Again Despite White House Pleas

April 26, 2024

Ukrainian Drone Strikes Target Russian Oil Refineries Again Despite White House Pleas

Just days after the Biden administration signed a new military aid package worth billions of dollars to Ukraine, Kyiv launched a series of suicide drone attacks on Russian oil refineries. Biden’s top officials have pleaded with Kyiv to stop attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure because of the fears that turmoil in crude markets would send pump prices in the US higher ahead of the presidential elections in November.

“Our region is again under attack by Ukrainian UAVs,” Smolensk Governor Vasily Anokhin wrote in a post on Telegram on Wednesday. Kamikaze drones damaged oil facilities in western Russia.

Another drone attack hit the Lipetsk region further south, which is home to steel production plants and pharmaceutical sites, Governor Igor Artamonov said.

“The Kyiv criminal regime tried to hit infrastructure in Lipetsk industrial zone,” Artamonov said.

The Moscow Times pointed out:

A source in the Ukrainian defense sector confirmed to AFP on Wednesday that drones in the service of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) had carried out the attacks.

The source made no mention of the attack on Lipetsk but claimed two oil depots were destroyed in the Smolensk region.

“Rosneft lost two storage and pumping bases for fuels and lubricants in the towns of Yartsevo and Rozdorovo,” the source said, referring to the Russian state-controlled energy giant.

The Financial Times, citing unnamed US officials, recently said long-range drones have hit at least 20 energy facilities deep within Russia so far this year. Kyiv’s drone attacks on Russia’s energy complex have been frightening for the Biden administration, as Brent prices have risen to the $90/bbl level on higher war risk premiums. Higher energy costs feed into inflation as stagflation concerns mount in the US. Also, gasoline pump prices in the US are inching closer to the politically sensitive $4 level.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

EU Prepares to Tighten Screws on Russian LNG Imports

April 26, 2024

EU Prepares to Tighten Screws on Russian LNG Imports

In a move that could reshape Europe’s energy landscape, the European Commission is poised to propose new sanctions targeting Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports. According to Reuters sources close to the matter, the proposed measures will include a ban on shipments within the EU and sanctions on three Russian LNG projects.

The European Commission’s decision comes amid growing concerns over Europe’s reliance on Russian energy, particularly in the wake of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. While the EU imposed a ban on Russian seaborne oil imports earlier this year, it has thus far refrained from taking similar action against LNG imports. However, with imports of Russian LNG surging since the start of the war, accounting for around 15% of EU gas supply, pressure has been mounting on Brussels to act.

The proposed ban on trans-shipments within the EU is aimed at preventing the diversion of Russian LNG cargoes to other destinations. Currently, Belgium, France, and Spain are the largest importers of Russian LNG, with many of these imports being re-exported to other countries, including China. By imposing restrictions on trans-shipments, the EU hopes to ensure that Russian LNG does not find its way to markets outside of Europe.

In addition to the ban on trans-shipments, the European Commission is also considering sanctions on three Russian LNG projects – Arctic LNG 2, Ust Luga, and Murmansk. While the details of these sanctions are still being discussed, they are expected to target projects that are not yet operational, further complicating Russia’s efforts to expand its LNG exports.

The move by the European Commission reflects growing unease within the EU over its dependence on Russian energy. With tensions between Russia and the West showing no signs of abating…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

UK Defense Chief Says Ukraine To Increase Long-Range Strikes In Russia

April 26, 2024

UK Defense Chief Says Ukraine To Increase Long-Range Strikes In Russia

Just as President Biden was signing into effect the newly approved foreign defense package which includes $60 billion for Ukraine, the United Kingdom also rolled out its own massive aid package (though paling in comparison), first unveiled Tuesday.

Britain announced its single largest aid package for Ukraine yet, at the equivalent of $620 million (£500 million). According to UK NATO officials, the arms include Storm Shadow missiles among a total of 1,600 strike and air defense missiles, four million rounds of ammo, 60 boats, and over 400 vehicles.

Even though the White House is busy cautioning that in the coming months Russia is likely to make more gains on the front lines, according to fresh words of Jake Sullivan, British leadership is still talking about “winning”.

*Head of the UK military, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, Via The Telegram*

Defense Minister Grant Shapps, for example, had this to say about new aid: “This record package of military aid will give President Zelensky and his brave nation more of the kit they need to kick Putin out and restore peace and stability in Europe.”

“The UK was the first to provide NLAW missiles, the first to give modern tanks, and the first to send long-range missiles,” he added. “Now, we are going even further. We will never let the world forget the existential battle Ukraine is fighting, and with our enduring support, they will win.”

Britain’s military leadership is also echoing this optimism, with UK defense chief, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, telling Financial Times that the West’s new infusion of military aid will help Ukraine increase its long-range strikes on Russian territory:

Ukraine is set to increase long-range attacks inside Russia as an influx of western military aid aims to help Kyiv shape the war “in much stronger ways”, the head of the UK military has said.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Ukraine War Funding and Failed Russian Sanctions. Is the US Empire Shooting Itself in the Foot?

April 26, 2024

Ukraine War Funding and Failed Russian Sanctions. Is the US Empire Shooting Itself in the Foot?

***

This past weekend, April 20, 2024 the US House of Representatives passed a bill to provide Ukraine with another $61 billion in aid. The measure will quickly pass the Senate and be signed into law by Biden within days.

The funds, however, will make little difference to the outcome of the war on the ground as it appears most of the military hardware funded by the $61 billion has already been produced and much of it already shipped. Perhaps no more than $10 billion in additional new weapons and equipment will result from the latest $61 billion passed by Congress.

Subject to revision, initial reports of the composition of the $61 billion indicate $23.2 billion of it will go to pay US arms producers for weapons that have already been produced and delivered to Ukraine. Another $13.8 billion is earmarked to replace weapons from US military stocks that have been produced and are in the process of being shipped—but haven’t as yet—or are additional weapons still to be produced. The breakdown of this latter $13.8 amount is not yet clear in the initial reports. One might generously guess perhaps $10 billion at most represents weapons not yet produced, while $25-$30 billion represents weapons already shipped to Ukraine or in the current shipment pipeline.

In total, therefore, weapons already delivered to Ukraine, awaiting shipment, or yet to be produced amount to approximately $37 billion.

The remainder of the $61 billion includes $7.8 billion for financial assistance to Ukraine to pay for salaries of government employees through 2024. An additional $11.3 billion to finance current Pentagon operations in Ukraine—which sounds suspiciously like pay for US advisors, mercenaries, special ops, and US forces operating equipment like radars, advanced Patriot missile systems, etc. on the ground. Another $4.7 billion is for miscellaneous expenses, whatever that is.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Russia warns the world is on the brink of a ‘direct military clash’ between nuclear powers

April 23, 2024

Russia warns the world is on the brink of a ‘direct military clash’ between nuclear powers

Russia warned Monday that the risk of a “direct military clash” between Russia and nuclear powers in the West is rising.

“Westerners are dangerously balancing on the brink of a direct military clash between nuclear powers, which is fraught with catastrophic consequences,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in a video message to the participants of the Moscow Nonproliferation Conference.

The comments come after Russia reacted angrily to the U.S. House of Representatives passing a $61 billion foreign aid package for Kyiv at the weekend.

House lawmakers approved the aid Saturday despite long-standing objections from hardline Republicans; the bill now passes to the Democratic-majority Senate, which is expected to approve the legislation later this week before it’s passed to President Joe Biden to sign it into law.

U.S. President Joe Biden and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy react during a joint press conference at the White House in Washington, U.S., December 12, 2023.

Leah Millis | Reuters

The aid is a lifeline for Ukraine, whose forces in the east of the country have had to ration their usage of shells amid shortages of supplies; Russian forces have been making gains in the Donbas region, with Ukraine pleading for more air defense systems, artillery and ammunition to turn the tide in the war.

Ukraine is given a reprieve by the U.S., but faces race against the clock over weapons supplies

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy thanked U.S. lawmakers saying the bill passed by the House “will keep the war from expanding, save thousands and thousands of lives, and help both of our nations to become stronger.” He urged the Senate to pass the bill as quickly as possible.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Russian Refineries Install Nets as Protection From Drone Attacks

April 20, 2024

Russian Refineries Install Nets as Protection From Drone Attacks

Russian oil company Bashneft, part of state-controlled giant Rosneft, has installed metal mesh at its refineries to protect them from drone attacks from Ukraine, Russian media reported on Friday, quoting Radiy Khabirov, the head of the Bashkortostan region where Bashneft is based.

“We don’t stop there. There are a number of solutions there, which I won’t talk about yet. They are classified. But believe me, we worry about this very much,” the Bashinform agency quoted Khabirov as saying.

This year, Ukraine has intensified attacks on oil refineries in Russia, which have reduced Russian refining capacity, and which, reportedly, have the White House concerned about rising international prices.

The United States has repeatedly urged Ukraine to halt its drone attacks on Russian oil refineries due to Washington’s assessment that the strikes could lead to Russian retaliation and push up global oil prices, the Financial Times reported last month, citing sources familiar with the exchange.

The drone attacks from Ukraine on Russian refineries could disrupt fuel markets globally, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said last week, estimating that up to 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) of Russia’s refinery capacity could be offline in the second quarter.

Russia has brought back online some oil refining units in recent weeks, reducing the capacity taken offline by Ukrainian drone hits to around 10%, from 14% at the end of March, calculations by Reuters showed earlier this week.

The refining capacity in Russia that is currently offline due to drone attacks is now estimated by Reuters at around 660,000 barrels per day (bpd), compared to 907,000 bpd offline at the end of March.

Still, maintenance and other outages at Russia’s refineries will actually raise the refining capacity that will be offline this month compared to March, according to Reuters’s data and calculations.

Russia said in early April it could repair all damaged units within two months. Russia’s Energy Minister Nikolai Shulginov has said that all damaged refineries in the country would be restarted by the beginning of June.

Flooding in Central Asia and southern Russia kills scores and forces tens of thousands to evacuate to higher ground

April 18, 2024

Unusually heavy seasonal rains have left a vast swath of southern Russia and Central Asia reeling from floods, with dozens of people dead in Afghanistan and Pakistan and tens of thousands forced to flee their homes in Kazakhstan and Russia.

Authorities say the flooding — the atypical intensity of which scientists blame on human-driven climate change — is likely to get worse, with more rain predicted and already swollen rivers bursting their banks.

Scores killed in Pakistan and Afghanistan

Lightning and heavy rains killed at least 36 people in Pakistan, mostly farmers, over three days, emergency response officials said Monday, as a state of emergency was declared in the southwest of the country. Most of the deaths were blamed on farmers being struck by lightning and torrential rain collapsing houses, The Associated Press quoted regional disaster management spokesperson Arfan Kathia as saying Monday. He noted that more rain was expected over the coming week.

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said in a televised address that he’d ordered authorities to rush aid to the affected regions, where swollen rivers and flash floods have also severely damaged roads.

PAKISTAN-WEATHER — Onlookers gaze towards municipal workers using heavy machinery to level the ground after damage due to floodwaters following heavy rains on the outskirts of Quetta on April 15, 2024.BANARAS KHAN/AFP/GETTY

In neighboring Afghanistan, the country’s Taliban rulers said Sunday that heavy flooding from seasonal rains had killed at least 33 people and left more than two dozen others injured over three days. Abdullah Janan Saiq, the spokesman for the government’s disaster management agency, said the flash floods hit the capital, Kabul, and several other provinces.

He said more than 600 homes were damaged or destroyed completely, with hundreds of acres of farmland destroyed and many farm animals killed.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

AI, Gold and Nuclear War

April 17, 2024

AI, Gold and Nuclear War

So-called artificial intelligence (AI) is taking the world by storm. Meanwhile, gold has shot up like a rocket over the past couple of months.

In mid-February, gold was trading at $1,990. Two months later, gold is trading above $2,400 — a $410 gain in just two months.

So here’s a question:

Is there a connection between AI and gold? It seems like an odd question. But as it turns out, the answer is yes. And surprisingly, there has been for decades. It involves the Cold War between the U.S. and the Soviet Union.

In the early 1980s, the KGB was deeply concerned about the possibility of a nuclear first strike by the United States. At the time, Yuri Andropov was head of the KGB.

Andropov’s fear of a nuclear first strike by the U.S. was based in part on the 1980 election of Ronald Reagan and Reagan’s plan to install Pershing II intermediate-range missiles in Europe.

Those missiles could be armed with nuclear warheads and could strike the Soviet Union within minutes of being launched. This put Soviet nuclear forces on a hair-trigger alert. They adopted a “launch on warning” posture.

This means that as soon as credible evidence of a planned first strike was discovered, the Soviet Union would launch its own first strike to avoid destruction of its forces.

The irony was that the U.S. had no actual plans to launch a first strike, but the Soviet Union didn’t know that. Reagan’s speeches about the “evil empire” did nothing to calm Soviet concerns.

AI and Nuclear Readiness

In response, the Soviets developed a primitive (by today’s standards) AI system called VRYAN. That’s a Russian acronym for: sudden nuclear missile attack.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Europe’s Metacrisis Just Got Worse

April 17, 2024

Europe’s Metacrisis Just Got Worse

The latest conflict between Iran and Israel just made Europe’s already precarious energy and economic situation a lot worse.

Many analysts and politicians are celebrating Europe’s resilience after losing its natural gas supply from Russia.

“Two years on from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, trade in energy products between Russia and the European Union has largely disappeared. The EU has adapted remarkably well to a decoupling that many would have considered impossible.”

Bruegel

There is some truth here but it misses the larger picture. In the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the world has witnessed a major shift in its geopolitical, economic, and social order. These changes have had a particularly large effect in Europe. Events in the Middle East make things even worse.

The Covid-19 Pandemic in 2020 resulted in a re-arrangement of supply chains and trade dependencies, prompting countries to consider the vulnerabilities inherent in globalized production networks. The era of unipolar dominance by the United States has given way to a more multipolar world. The traditional alliances and partnerships that underpinned the post-World War II order are unraveling.

Just before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China and Russia issued a joint statement declaring that their partnership had “no limits” in opposing NATO expansion. They further stated their intention to reshape the global governance system to be more representative of the changing global landscape, challenging the current US-dominated world order.

In early 2024, the BRICS group of emerging-market nations—Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa–expanded to include Saudi Arabia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Ethiopia and Egypt. These countries now hold a dominant position on more than half of the global oil exports, with major implications for oil prices and energy geopolitics…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

U.S. Funds Ukraine Groups Censoring Critics, Smearing Pro-Peace Voices

April 14, 2024

U.S. Funds Ukraine Groups Censoring Critics, Smearing Pro-Peace Voices

American taxpayers are footing the bill for Ukrainian NGOs focused on smearing proponents of a diplomatic solution as “Russian disinformation” agents.

Ukraine’s American-backed fight against Russia is taking place not only in the blood-soaked trenches of the Donbas region but also on what military planners call the cognitive battlefield – to win hearts and minds.

A sprawling constellation of media outlets organized with substantial funding and direction from the U.S. government has not just sought to counter Russian propaganda but has supported strong censorship laws and shutdowns of dissident outlets, disseminated disinformation of its own, and sought to silence critics of the war, including many American citizens.

Economist Jeffrey Sachs, commentator Tucker Carlson, journalist Glenn Greenwald, and University of Chicago Professor John Mearsheimer are among the critics on both the left and the right who have been cast as part of a “network of Russian propaganda.”

But the figures targeted by the Ukrainian watchdog groups are hardly Kremlin agents. They simply have forcefully criticized dominant narratives around the war.

Sachs is a highly respected international development expert who has angered Ukrainian officials over his repeated calls for a diplomatic solution to the current military conflict. Last November, he gave a speech at the United Nations calling for a negotiated peace.

Mearsheimer has written extensively on international relations and is a skeptic of NATO expansion. He predicted that Western efforts to militarize Ukraine would lead to a Russian invasion.

Greenwald is a Pulitzer Prize-winning independent journalist who has criticized not just war coverage but media dynamics that suppress voices that run counter to U.S. narratives. “What they mean when they demand censorship of ‘pro-Russia propaganda’ is anything that questions the US/EU role in the Ukraine war or who dissents from their narratives,” Greenwald has observed.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

‘Devastating to See’: Russia’s Orenburg Region Battles Historic Flood

April 11, 2024

‘Devastating to See’: Russia’s Orenburg Region Battles Historic Flood

Experts say the floods, which have caught the authorities off-guard and left many people to fend for themselves, are just a preview of what is yet to come in the climate crisis.

A view of a flood-hit area in the town of Orsk.Yegor Aleyev / TASS

ORENBURG REGION, Russia – Russia’s southern Orenburg region has been grappling with its worst flooding in decades, with 55 cities and towns fully or partially flooded and thousands evacuated in an unprecedented emergency.

Footage from the cities of Orsk and Orenburg showed entire neighborhoods submerged underwater, with volunteers and emergency workers on inflatable dinghies rescuing people and animals trapped in their homes.

Experts say the floods, which have caught the authorities off-guard and left many people to fend for themselves, are just the beginning of what is yet to come in the climate crisis.

“The scale of the flood is colossal. Many areas, many houses are underwater,” said Oleg, a resident of Orsk, the Ural Mountains city hardest hit by the disaster.

“We need to rebuild and keep rebuilding. I think it will take a lot of time, but [it will be possible] if the authorities help people,” he told The Moscow Times.

In Orenburg, the regional capital, the river embankment, several neighborhoods and a few settlements outside the city have been submerged since the end of last week.

Despite days of round-the-clock rescue efforts, there is still no end in sight to the crisis. Hydrologists expect the Ural River to rise even higher in Orenburg on Wednesday, and the Kremlin said that the neighboring Kurgan and Tyumen regions face “difficult days ahead.”

Russia on Sunday declared a federal state of emergency in the Orenburg region, a move that allows federal forces to get involved in efforts to combat the flooding.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Russia Is Struggling to Repair Refineries Due to Sanctions

April 5, 2024

Russia Is Struggling to Repair Refineries Due to Sanctions

Due to the sanctions, Russia cannot access spare parts from Western engineering companies that have provided refinery equipment in the past, leaving Russian refiners struggling to repair damaged units, multiple industry sources in Russia have told Reuters.

Western firms including America’s UOP and Swiss ABB have supplied parts and equipment to major Russian refineries in the past. After the invasion of Ukraine, they no longer fulfill new orders from Russia, leaving local engineers scrambling to find spare parts and equipment.

One example of such difficulty is Lukoil’s Norsi refinery in Nizhny Novgorod on the Volga River. A turbine malfunctioned there in early January and Russian engineers have struggled to have the equipment replaced since then, according to Reuters sources.

This has left the refinery with a reduced capacity to produce gasoline.

The malfunction at the refinery compounded last month after a fire broke out at the facility following a drone attack.

Since all major Russian refineries use at least some part of Western technology, they could struggle to repair equipment and units that broke down or have been damaged by Ukrainian drone attacks, which have intensified in recent weeks and have taken an estimated 14% of Russia’s refining capacity offline.

Russia claims it can repair all damaged units within two months.

On Wednesday, Russia’s Energy Minister Nikolai Shulginov said that all damaged refineries in the country would be restarted by the beginning of June.

“Repairs are underway at the refineries. We plan to re-launch a number of refineries after repairs in April-May, possibly before the beginning of June,” Russian news agency Interfax quoted Shulginov as saying.

“All facilities that were damaged will be re-commissioned,” the minister added.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Oh Say Can You See?

March 29, 2024

Oh Say Can You See?

“A modern nuc can fit in the trunk of a car. When millions of people can walk across our border with impunity what do you think the chances are we would catch something that size?” — Sam Faddi

That’s Sam Faddis, retired CIA (quote didn’t quite fit in block).

Who among you was not impressed seeing the sudden and total collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge after getting its pylon bonked by the container ship Dali a few hours before the dawn’s early light in Baltimore harbor? In America’s ongoing death-of-a-thousand-cuts, that one literally severed a major artery, but it may take a while to know how badly the wounded colossus known as the USA is bleeding out.

“Joe Biden” emerged from his crypt pronto to state that the federal government would pony-up the cost of building the bridge back better, meant to reassure the public, you’d suppose. But perhaps the real reason was to obviate an otherwise requisite investigation of the crash by ship-owner Grace Ocean’s insurance company — since legal wrangling over responsibility would add more years to the already years-long estimated bridge replacement time-frame. And Gawd knows what else they might discover about how the darn thing came to pass. . . rumors of a Ukrainian captain at the Dali’shelm. . . stuff that the ruling intel blob might not want to get out there, especially given the still-murky role of the joint USA-UK black-op blobs in the Moscow Crocus Theater Massacre just a week earlier.

The Crocus op, you understand, was probably the worst clusterfuck qua Three Stooges blob operational procedure in memory, since four of the six surviving Tajiki shooters were nabbed in a car enroute to the Ukraine border (where they would’ve been whacked into silence, since they failed to martyr themselves at the scene-of-the-crime)…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Most Americans Believe US Will Be in World War Within Next Decade

March 26, 2024

Most Americans Believe US Will Be in World War Within Next Decade

The majority of Americans believe it is likely that the US will be involved in a world war during the coming decade. Under President Joe Biden, the US is preparing for great power wars with Russia and China, engaged in multiple Middle East conflicts, and posturing for a confrontation with Iran and North Korea.

According to a new YouGov poll, 61% of Americans responded that it is very or somewhat likely that a world war would break out in the next five to ten years. About two-thirds of people responding to the poll said they believe the war will turn into a nuclear conflict.

When asked what countries would be aligned against the US, a majority of Americans said that North Korea, Iran, Iraq, Russia, and China. Americans identified NATO members such as France and the UK, as well as Israel and Ukraine, as allies in the coming world war.

Americans are not overly optimistic about the potential conflict. A slight majority believe the US and its allies would defeat Russia. While under half of respondents said the US would lose a war with Russia or against an alliance between Moscow and Beijing.

While most Americans believe a global conflict is on the horizon, they are not interested in fighting the war. More than twice as many respondents said they would refuse service even if drafted than stated, they would volunteer if the war broke out. Americans responded that they were more likely to serve in non-combat roles or if the homeland was threatened.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

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