Oil prices are set to rise by the fastest rate since the 1970s over the next three years, Bank of America said in a new report, joining the growing group of analysts forecasting a return of oil to three-digit territory.
The average price of Brent over the next five years, however, will be between $50 and $70 per barrel, according to the bank, as quoted by The National.
The bank also said OPEC+ might decide to reverse its production cuts now that Brent is trending above $60, but added that a slow return of U.S. shale to international markets might lead to an extension of the production cut agreement to make sure prices stay higher.
“We believe that slower shale growth and oil price stability will likely require a continuation of Opec+’s market management beyond April 2022,” the bank’s analysts said.
OPEC+ is meeting next week to discuss the progress of its agreement in an environment of much tighter supply, and expectations are that some members may push for a production increase. The increase, however, will be moderate, at 500,000 bpd, according to reports.
The last Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee of OPEC+ met in the first week of February, and the meeting ended without many surprises. For the month of February, another 75,000 bpd was added to the quotas—65,000 bpd to Russia and 10,000 bpd to Kazakhstan. For the month of March, production quotas were eased again by the same amount, with the same distribution of the additions.
Russia is one of the extended cartel’s members that will likely call for a further increase in production. Moscow has a tradition of budgeting for pessimistic oil prices, which increases the benefits from each additional dollar benchmarks gain. Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, might like to see much higher prices as its breakeven level, despite the lowest production costs in the world, remains quite high.