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Today’s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh CCII– Hydrocarbons: Our Finite, Master Energy Resource and the Implications Of Its Peak For Modernity

Today’s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh CCII–
Hydrocarbons: Our Finite, Master Energy Resource and the Implications Of Its Peak For Modernity

Sun setting on an oil field.


If you’re new to my writing, check out this overview.


I’m finding that Large Language Models (LLMs) are a fantastic tool for skimming large amounts of information and summarising what it has scanned–it might take me hours/days/weeks to locate, access, read, interpret, summarise in my own words, and then review multiple times for grammar/spelling/flow of thought/etc. a fraction of the data that these computer programmes can take seconds to do. As such, I’ve spent some time using one for the purpose of following some thoughts on Peak Oil, a topic that I have been interested in for 15+ years and continue to keep at the forefront of my thinking when interpreting world events and attempting to better understand our modern, complex societies.

As I’ve asserted repeatedly, energy is everything. Nothing exists without it and it is most certainly fundamental to human complex societies–the more energy we have available and use, the larger and more complex our societies and their various systems become. Yes, our ingenuity and technological prowess have helped us create and build these complexities, but it is all underpinned by energy of one form or another and we have repeatedly leveraged energy to support our various adaptations, technologies, and massive expansion to most corners of our planet. 

Our modern world is dependent upon huge amounts of energy and in particular that provided by a finite cache of hydrocarbons. From an energy perspective hydrocarbons–particularly oil–are the commodity resource that should be considered humanity’s ‘master energy resource’; and it is one that appears irreplaceable given its energy-return-on-investments, density, transportability, and a variety of other characteristics that have led to its primacy in supporting our societal complexities.

And for better or worse, the waning days of this phenomenal and paramount energy resource are clearly in sight (or at least should be). So what are the implications of this for ‘Modernity’?

Let’s explore what the LLM Deepseek (DS) garners from the information it has access to regarding this hugely significant resource.

I asked the following five preparatory questions:

  1. How much oil does the world use per day?
  2. What percentage of oil reserves get extracted within 5-10 years of discovery?
  3. What percentage of discovered oil reserves tend to end up as actually recoverable?
  4. What percentage of recent oil production comes from unconventional sources?
  5. What is the trend for new oil field discoveries for the past twenty years?

My culminating question based upon the responses to the above inquiries:

  1. Given that: the world uses 100 million barrels of oil per day; only 10-30% of conventional oil fields, 20-50% of unconventional oil, and 5-15% of heavy oil can be recovered within 5-10 years of discovery; only 35-45% of conventional fields and 5-30% of unconventional oil is typically recovered; unconventional oil sources provide a significant and growing share of oil production; and that for the past twenty years new oil discoveries have failed to keep up with demand, what are the implications for modern, complex societies?

The response to this last question begins by stating: “The implications of these trends for modern, complex societies are profound, touching on energy security, economic stability, geopolitics, and environmental sustainability.” 

And DS concludes: “Modern societies built on cheap, abundant oil face a decade of reckoning. The choices made now—between clinging to fossil fuels or aggressively transitioning—will determine whether the 21st century sees managed adaptation or chaotic collapse.” (You can find the full responses to my questions directly below my opening comments.)

First, ‘profound’ would be one way to describe what Peak Oil portends for our societies. The peaking and subsequent shortfall in hydrocarbon extraction will send (is sending?) our current societal systems spinning in some very ‘interesting’ ways–including some Black Swan events that few, if any, can envision.

There’s a very good argument that this process began quite a number of years ago and has resulted in such ‘adaptations’ as significant expansion of manipulation/machination within impacted societal systems, especially our economic and geopolitical ones. And this will be/is particularly true for the current global hegemon (i.e., the US-NATO Empire) whose ‘power’ is greatly at risk as a result–continued expansion and control is virtually impossible without massive energy resources to support them.

Second, while I disagree with the ‘solution’ (pursuit of an aggressive transition to ‘renewables’) proposed by DS–not that I asked for one–I am not surprised by it. 

LLMs base their ‘answers’ to questions upon the prompts that are inputted by the person performing the inquiry and the data/information they have access to. Most individuals and groups (including, but especially profit-driven industries, governments, and academic institutions) are firmly entrenched in the denial and bargaining phases of awareness concerning our energy-resource predicament, and they are the ones that have dominated our research, reporting, and conversations about the issue. 

As such, our media and public spaces are flooded with the narrative (and derivations of it) that human ingenuity and our technological prowess can ‘solve’ any ‘problem’ that we encounter–and those that can have leveraged this societal belief to extract ‘wealth’ and reinforced it at every opportunity. On top of this, most have not only been conditioned to believe this tale but want to believe desperately that it is true. So, it is not the least bit surprising that LLMs would ‘conclude’ that we can address the predicament of Peak Oil via our technology of ‘renewables’ and forthcoming ‘clean’ energy ‘breakthroughs’. (I can’t help but think of the saying “garbage in, garbage out”, or in this case: “hopium in, hopium out”.)

Whether you agree with DS’s proposed ‘solution’ to this predicament depends greatly upon your worldview/paradigm/schema/interpretive lens and the stage of awareness/grieving you find yourself presently within. If you do hold this story to be ‘true’, I recommend looking behind the curtain of the ‘renewables-will-save-us’ storyline and especially into the dark corners where is hidden the disastrous impacts upon our ecosystems of the production of these industrial products and their reliance upon massive hydrocarbon inputs.

To sum up the ‘risks’ and ‘solutions’ the LLM DS suggests regarding a peaking of oil resources [along with what I suspect may accompany each]:

-Hydrocarbon price volatility due to supply shocks and geopolitical conflict [expect deflection regarding what is causing price volatility and the ramping up of nationalism, warmongering, and othering in light of geopolitical tensions].

-Risk to economic systems as prices inflate due to higher energy costs [expect dramatic debt-/credit-based money ‘creation’ and significant price inflation–blamed on anything but waning hydrocarbon supplies, money ‘printing’, and wealth extraction by the ruling ‘elite’ and various snake oil salesmen].

-Escalating geopolitical tensions due to resource nationalisation and competition [even more nationalism, warmongering, and othering along with reasons for everyone (except the elite) to tighten their belts as we invest ever-greater amounts of resources into domestic resource exploration/extraction and the military–to help in accessing/controlling non-domestic resources].

-Technological adaptation to minimise reliance upon hydrocarbons [expect the narratives surrounding our ability to ‘solve’ hydrocarbon supply shocks to be ever-present and arguments for gargantuan monetary investments in these technologies and research around them; along with massive wealth gains for those connected to these–completely ‘justifiable’ because they’re ‘saving the world’]. 

-Increasing energy poverty, particularly for the already ‘disadvantaged/marginalised’ [expect those already suffering from our current socioeconomic and sociopolitical systems to take it on the chin even more while our ‘leaders’ argue that just the opposite will occur with our energy-security and military ‘investments’–in other words, even more pronounced socioeconomic inequality and increasing narrative management regarding this].

It’s certainly a fine mess we find ourselves caught up in. Prepare accordingly…


A handful of my recent Contemplations that touch on the subjects discussed above:

-Peak Oil, Economic Growth, and Wildlife Conservation: Envisioning An Alternative Future. March 28, 2025. Website     Medium     Substack

-Imperial Longevity, ‘Collapse’ Causes, and Resource Finiteness. March 7, 2025. Website     Medium     Substack 

-Beyond Peak Oil: Will Our Cities Collapse? February 20, 2025. Website Medium     Substack

-‘Renewable’ Energy: See, Hear, and Speak No Evil, Part 1. January 12, 2025. Website     Medium     Substack; Part 2. January 25. Website     Medium     Substack;  Part 3. January 31. Website     Medium     Substack

US Peak Shale Oil & Gas: When the Walls Come Tumblin’ Down. December 30, 2024. Website Medium Substack

-Sorry, folks, but ‘renewables’ are NOT going to save humanity or the planet. December 1, 2024. Website      Medium      Substack 

Collapse = Prolonged Period of Diminishing Returns + Significant Stress Surge(s), Part 1. October 7, 2024. Website    Medium    Substack; Part 2. October 15. Website    Medium    Substack;Part 3. October 23. Website     Medium     Substack; Part 4. October 28. Website     Medium     Substack

‘Renewables’: The Great ‘Solution’ (NOT). August 20, 2024. Website     Medium     Substack


The detailed DeepSeek responses follow.

  1. How much oil does the world use per day?

As of recent data (2023-2024), the world consumes approximately 100 million barrels of oil per day (mb/d). This figure includes all forms of petroleum liquids, such as crude oil, lease condensate, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and refinery processing gains.  =

Key Insights on Global Oil Consumption:

  1. Top Consumers: 

   – United States (~20 mb/d)  

   – China (~15–16 mb/d)  

   – India (~5–6 mb/d)  

   – European Union (~13–14 mb/d combined)  

  1. Demand Trends:  

   – Oil demand has been rising gradually, driven by emerging economies (Asia, Africa, Middle East).  

   – Developed nations are seeing slower growth due to energy transitions and efficiency improvements.  

  1. Future Projections:  

   – The International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC expect demand to peak between 2030–2040 as renewable energy and electric vehicles expand.  

   – Short-term demand remains strong due to industrial needs, aviation, and petrochemicals.  


  1. What percentage of oil reserves get extracted within 5-10 years of discovery?

The percentage of oil reserves extracted within 5–10 years of discovery depends on several factors, including the type of reservoir, technology, economics, and geopolitical conditions. Here’s a general breakdown:

Typical Recovery Rates in Early Years  

  1. Conventional Oil Fields (Easy-to-extract reserves):  

   – ~10–30% of the total recoverable reserves may be extracted in the first 5–10 years.  

   – Faster extraction occurs in large, high-pressure fields (e.g., Saudi Arabia’s Ghawar).  

   – Offshore and deepwater projects (e.g., Brazil’s pre-salt) may take longer due to complexity.  

  1. Unconventional Oil (Shale, Tight Oil, Oil Sands):  

   – ~20–50% of reserves can be extracted quickly (within 5–10 years) due to hydraulic fracturing (fracking) and horizontal drilling.  

   – However, shale wells decline rapidly (~60–70% in the first year), so continuous drilling is needed.  

  1. Heavy Oil & Oil Sands (e.g., Canada’s Alberta):  

   – Only ~5–15% may be extracted in the first decade due to slower, energy-intensive extraction methods (e.g., steam-assisted gravity drainage).  

Key Factors Affecting Early Extraction  

– Technology: Enhanced oil recovery (EOR) methods (e.g., CO₂ injection) can speed up extraction.  

– Economics: High oil prices incentivize faster development.  

– Regulations: Strict environmental policies (e.g., Norway, U.S. offshore) may delay production.  

– Field Size: Giant fields (>1 billion barrels) take longer to develop but produce for decades.  

Long-Term vs. Short-Term Extraction 

– Most fields produce for 20–50 years, with peak output often 5–15 years after discovery.  

– Example: The Permian Basin (U.S.) saw rapid fracking-driven extraction, while deepwater fields (e.g., Guyana’s Stabroek) take ~5–7 years from discovery to first oil.  


  1. What percentage of discovered oil reserves tend to end up as actually recoverable?

The percentage of discovered oil reserves that end up being actually recoverable depends on geological, technological, and economic factors. Here’s a breakdown of key concepts and estimates:

  1. Definitions  

– Original Oil in Place (OOIP): Total oil in a reservoir (100%).  

– Proved Reserves (1P): Oil that is ~90% likely to be recoverable with current tech/economics.  

– Recoverable Reserves: What can realistically be extracted over time (usually 30–60% of OOIP).  

  1. Recovery Factors by Reservoir Type:
Reservoir Type Typical Recovery Factor Notes
Conventional Oil (e.g., Saudi Arabia, North Sea) 20–50% Depends on pressure, permeability, and secondary recovery (water/gas injection).
Unconventional (Shale/Tight Oil) (e.g., U.S. Permian Basin) 5–15%** (per well) Fracking improves extraction, but wells decline fast.
Heavy Oil/Oil Sands** (e.g., Canada, Venezuela) 5–30% Requires steam or solvent injection (SAGD).
Deepwater/Offshore** (e.g., Brazil pre-salt) 15–40% High-tech extraction but challenging conditions. 
Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR)** (CO₂, chemical flooding 30–60%+ Can boost recovery beyond primary/secondary methods.

 

  1. Why Isn’t 100% Recovered? 

– Physical Limitations: Oil sticks to rocks (residual saturation), and reservoirs lose pressure.  

– Economic Constraints: Extracting the last 20–30% may cost more than the oil’s value.  

– Technological Barriers:Some reserves (e.g., ultra-deep, Arctic) are too difficult with current tech.  

  1. Industry Trends Improving Recovery  

– Digital Oilfields (AI, sensors) optimize extraction.  

– EOR Methods (CO₂ injection, microbes) push recovery rates higher.  

– Nanotechnology & Advanced Fracking** help tap more shale oil.  

  1. Real-World Examples  

– Ghawar Field (Saudi Arabia): ~50–60% recovery (best-case conventional).  

– Permian Shale Wells: ~5–10% per well, but new drilling keeps reserves “replenished.”  

– Alberta Oil Sands: ~10–20% recovery via mining, up to ~30% with in-situ methods.  

Bottom Line  

Globally, only about 35–45% of discovered oil is typically recovered from conventional fields, with some EOR pushing it to 50–60% in ideal cases. Unconventional oil (shale, heavy oil) often recovers far less (5–30%).  


  1. What percentage of recent oil production comes from unconventional sources?

As of recent data (2023–2024), unconventional oil sources (shale/tight oil, oil sands, and deepwater) contribute a significant and growing share of global oil production. Here’s the breakdown:  

Global Oil Production: Unconventional vs. Conventional

Source Share of Global Production Key Regions
Unconventional (Total) ~30–35% (~30–35 million barrels per day) U.S., Canada, Brazil, Argentina
Shale/Tight Oil ~15–18%** (~15–18 mb/d) U.S. (Permian, Bakken), Argentina (Vaca Muerta)
Oil Sands ~5–6%** (~5–6 mb/d) Canada (Alberta)
Deepwater/Ultra-Deep ~8–10%** (~8–10 mb/d) Brazil (pre-salt), Gulf of Mexico, West Africa
Conventional Oil ~65–70%** (~65–70 mb/d) Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE

 

Key Trends

  1. U.S. Dominance in Shale Oil  

   – The U.S. is the world’s **top oil producer**, thanks to fracking (shale/tight oil accounts for ~65% of U.S. production).  

   – The Permian Basin alone produces ~6–7 mb/d (more than most OPEC countries).  

  1. Canada’s Oil Sands  

   – Alberta’s oil sands produce ~3.5–4 mb/d, but growth is slowing due to climate policies.  

  1. Brazil’s Deepwater Boom  

   – Pre-salt fields (e.g., Tupi, Búzios) now produce ~2.5–3 mb/d, making Brazil a top-5 global producer.  

  1. OPEC’s Declining Share  

   – Conventional oil (led by OPEC+) still dominates, but its market share has dropped from ~50% in 2000 to ~35–40% today due to the U.S. shale revolution.  

Future Outlook  

– Unconventional production (especially shale) will remain critical but faces challenges:  

  – Shale decline rates (wells lose ~60% of output in Year 1).  

  – Investment constraints (ESG pressures, fewer new drillings).  

– Deepwater and oil sands will grow moderately, while shale may peak in the 2030s.  


  1. What is the trend for new oil field discoveries for the past twenty years?

Over the past 20 years (2004–2024), the trend in new oil field discoveries has shifted dramatically, with significant implications for global supply. Here’s a breakdown of key trends:

  1. Declining Volume of Discoveries  

– 2000s (Peak Era):  

  – Annual discoveries averaged ~15–20 billion barrels (Gb) of oil equivalent (boe) in the early 2000s.  

  – Major finds: Kashagan (Kazakhstan, 2000), Tupi (Brazil pre-salt, 2006), Jubilee (Ghana, 2007).  

– 2010s (Sharp Drop):  

  – Discoveries fell to ~5–10 Gb/year, with a record low of ~4 Gb in 2016 (Rystad Energy).  

  – Reason: High exploration costs, focus on shale, and underinvestment in conventional drilling.  

– 2020s (Partial Recovery):  

  – Improved technology (AI, seismic imaging) boosted discoveries to ~8–12 Gb/year, but still below replacement levels.  

  – Recent giants: Guyana’s Stabroek Block (Exxon, 2015+), Namibia’s Venus (2022).  

  1. Shift to Offshore & Unconventional  

– Deepwater/Ultra-Deepwater Dominance:  

  – ~60% of new reserves since 2010 came from offshore (Brazil, Guyana, Namibia).  

  – Example: Guyana’s discoveries (>11 Gb since 2015) now produce ~600,000 b/d (rising to 1.2+ mb/d by 2027).  

– Shale’s Short-Term Boom:  

  – U.S. tight oil surged but relies on reserve growth via drilling (not new field discoveries).  

  – Shale adds ~5–10 Gb/year in “technically recoverable” reserves but has steep decline rates.  

  1. Smaller Average Field Size  

– Pre-2000: Average discovery size was ~500 million barrels (Mb).  

– Post-2010: Dropped to ~100 Mb, with fewer “elephant” fields (>1 Gb).  

– Exceptions:  

  – Guyana (Exxon’s Stabroek: 11 Gb+**).  

  – Namibia (TotalEnergies’ Venus: **~3 Gb+**).  

  1. Replacement Ratio Crisis  

– Global oil consumption:~35–40 Gb/year.  

– Discoveries vs. Demand:  

  – Only ~20–30% of consumed oil was replaced by new discoveries in the past decade.  

  – The industry now relies more on reserve growth in existing fields (e.g., EOR, shale drilling). 

     5. Future Outlook  

– Offshore Focus: Brazil, Guyana, Namibia, and the East Mediterranean will drive new supply.  

– Exploration Risks:  

  – ESG pressures limit investment in frontier regions (e.g., Arctic).  

  – National oil companies (NOCs) now dominate exploration (vs. shrinking major oil firm budgets).  

Key Takeaway  

New discoveries have failed to keep pace with demand since the 2010s, pushing the industry toward:  

  1. Smaller, technically complex fields (deepwater, shale).  
  2. Lower-carbon extraction (methane reduction, CCUS).  
  3. Geopolitical shifts (Guyana/Namibia rising, Middle East stabilizing).  

  1. Given that: the world uses 100 million barrels of oil per day; only 10-30% of conventional oil fields, 20-50% of unconventional oil, and 5-15% of heavy oil can be recovered within 5-10 years of discovery; only 35-45% of conventional fields and 5-30% of unconventional oil is typically recovered; unconventional oil sources provide a significant and growing share of oil production; and that for the past twenty years new oil discoveries have failed to keep up with demand, what are the implications for modern, complex societies?

The implications of these trends for modern, complex societies are profound, touching on energy security, economic stability, geopolitics, and environmental sustainability. Here’s a breakdown of the key challenges and potential outcomes:

  1. Energy Security & Supply Crunches  

– Growing Demand vs. Stagnant Discoveries:  

  – The world consumes ~35–40 billion barrels/year, but discoveries replace only 20–30% of that.  

  – Result: Dependence on existing fields (many in decline) and unconventional sources (costly, finite).  

– Geopolitical Vulnerabilities:  

  – Reliance on a shrinking number of producers (OPEC+, U.S. shale, Guyana, Brazil) increases price volatility.  

  – Conflicts or underinvestment could trigger supply shocks (e.g., 1970s-style crises).  

  1. Economic Risks  

– Higher Oil Prices:  

  – Tighter supply + rising demand (especially from Asia) could push prices above $100/barrel long-term.  

  – Inflationary pressure on transport, manufacturing, and food production.  

– Shale’s Limits:  

  – U.S. tight oil has peaked in prime basins (Permian growth slowing by 2030s).  

  – Fracking requires continuous drilling—capital and labor shortages could disrupt output.  

  1. Geopolitical Shifts  

– New Power Centers:  

  – Guyana, Brazil, and Namibia gain influence; traditional producers (Saudi Arabia, Russia) face budget strains.  

– Resource Nationalism:  

  – Countries may hoard reserves (e.g., Mexico’s PEMEX reforms, Venezuela’s sanctions battles).  

– Energy Wars:  

  – Competition over remaining resources (Arctic, South China Sea) could escalate tensions.  

  1. Industrial & Technological Adaptation  

– Efficiency & Substitution:  

  – Airlines, shipping, and petrochemicals will face scarcity-driven innovation (e.g., biofuels, hydrogen).  

  – Electric vehicles (EVs) reduce transport demand but won’t offset industrial/oil-heavy sectors fast enough.  

– Enhanced Recovery:  

  – AI, robotics, and nanotechnology may squeeze 5–15% more oil from old fields, delaying collapse.  

  1. Societal & Environmental Strains  

– Energy Poverty:  

  – Rising prices disproportionately hit low-income households (heating, transportation costs).  

– Climate Trade-Offs:  

  – Societies may delay decarbonization to secure oil (e.g., Europe’s post-Ukraine coal revival).  

  – Or accelerate renewables if oil shocks become frequent (1970s spurred nuclear/solar investments).  

  1. Potential Scenarios 

    1. “Muddling Through” (Most Likely)

– Oil prices oscillate between $80–150/barrel, driving slow adoption of alternatives.  

– Repeated supply crunches spur stop-gap measures (coal-to-liquids, gas-to-liquids).  

         2. Crisis & Collapse  

– A major geopolitical disruption (e.g., war in the Gulf) triggers global recession.  

– Shortages cripple logistics chains (food, medicines) and destabilize governments.

          3. Rapid Transition

– Oil shocks force WWII-scale mobilization into renewables, nuclear, and synthetic fuels.  

– Cities redesign transport (walkability, EVs), industries pivot to circular economies.  

Key Takeaways for Policymakers & Businesses  

  1. Diversify Energy Mix: Fast-track renewables, nuclear, and hydrogen to reduce oil dependence.  
  2. Strategic Reserves: Expand stockpiles for supply disruptions.  
  3. Demand Reduction: Mandate efficiency (CAFE standards, industrial electrification).  
  4. Geopolitical Alliances: Secure partnerships with stable producers (e.g., U.S.-Guyana ties).  

Bottom Line  

Modern societies built on cheap, abundant oil face a decade of reckoning. The choices made now—between clinging to fossil fuels or aggressively transitioning—will determine whether the 21st century sees managed adaptation or chaotic collapse. 


Exploring questions of the impact upon the planet’s ecosystems of the proposed ‘solution’ of an aggressive transition to ‘renewables’ is fodder for a future Contemplation…


What is going to be my standard WARNING/ADVICE going forward and that I have reiterated in various ways before this:

“Only time will tell how this all unfolds but there’s nothing wrong with preparing for the worst by ‘collapsing now to avoid the rush’ and pursuing self-sufficiency. By this I mean removing as many dependencies on the Matrix as is possible and making do, locally. And if one can do this without negative impacts upon our fragile ecosystems or do so while creating more resilient ecosystems, all the better. 

Building community (maybe even just household) resilience to as high a level as possible seems prudent given the uncertainties of an unpredictable future. There’s no guarantee it will ensure ‘recovery’ after a significant societal stressor/shock but it should increase the probability of it and that, perhaps, is all we can ‘hope’ for from its pursuit.”


If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).

Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running). 

If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing. 

Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99

Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps… 

https://paypal.me/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US 

If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.

You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.

AND

Released September 30, 2024
It Bears Repeating: Best Of…Volume 2

A compilation of writers focused on the nexus of limits to growth, energy, and ecological overshoot.

With a Foreword by Erik Michaels and Afterword by Dr. Guy McPherson, authors include: Dr. Peter A Victor, George Tsakraklides, Charles Hugh Smith, Dr. Tony Povilitis, Jordan Perry, Matt Orsagh, Justin McAffee, Jack Lowe, The Honest Sorcerer, Fast Eddy, Will Falk, Dr. Ugo Bardi, and Steve Bull.

The document is not a guided narrative towards a singular or overarching message; except, perhaps, that we are in a predicament of our own making with a far more chaotic future ahead of us than most imagine–and most certainly than what mainstream media/politics would have us believe.

Click here to access the document as a PDF file, free to download.

 

The Bulletin: April 17-23, 2025

The Bulletin: April 17-23, 2025

This past week’s articles of interest…

If you’re new to my writing, check out this overview.


How Climate Change Fuels Increasing Wildfire Disasters

Extended Heatwave in India, Pakistan To Test Survivability

History Will Not Repeat Itself – George Tsakraklides

Zero-Based Extinction: Nature’s Life Support Gets a Sunset Clause

The Structure of Geopolitical Revolutions | Art Berman

Technology Addiction and Lessons

The unregulated link in a toxic supply chain | Grist

The End Of Thinking

What will happen when the world runs out of oil? | 60 Minutes Australia

EIA Says U.S. Oil Production Will Peak in 2027 | OilPrice.com

Unintended Consequences in a Complex World – by Nate Hagens

How Things Break: Hyper-Optimization

Being Certain About Uncertainty – The Honest Sorcerer

2030 Doomsday Scenario: The Great Nuclear Collapse

Poverty and Progress – by Gunnar Rundgren

Our Sad Species | how to save the world

“China Will Never Accept It”: Beijing Warns Countries Against Trade Deal With Trump At China’s Expense | ZeroHedge

What’s “Normal” in a Hyper-Normalized World?

Science Snippets: The Disasters Of Cooking and Heating With Plastic

Pope Francis Failed: Now we Need a New Religion?

From Gridlock to Road Rage: What Collapse Feels Like

The first commercial carbon sequestration plant in the U.S. leaks – Peak Everything, Overshoot, & Collapse

Living In the Shadows


If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).

Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running). 

If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing. 

Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99

Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps… 

https://paypal.me/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US 

If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.

You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.

 

The Bulletin: April 10-16, 2025

The Bulletin: April 10-16, 2025

This past week’s articles of interest…


Living Without Fossil Fuels: How Living Energy Farm Created a Comfortable Off-Grid Lifestyle

German Journalist David Bendels Sentenced for Satirical Post Targeting Interior Minister Nancy Faeser

The Economics Of A Dying Empire

The Sharp Turn: Global Collapse Picks Up Speed

Uruguay – by Matt Orsagh – Degrowth is the Answer

New Trump Orders Aim to Keep Coal Power Alive, Despite Climate and Economic Costs

Economists now say a dire economic slowdown has already begun – MarketWatch

Street Medics For A Just Collapse

Trump Suggests Israel Would ‘Lead’ Possible Attack On Iran | ZeroHedge

Philosophical Reflections on Predicting the Future in an Age of Existential Threats | Collapse of Industrial Civilization

Contamination threatens the last source of clean groundwater in west New Mexico – High Country News

The Spiritual Poverty of Statism, Perpetual manufactured cultural adolescence and their ecological impacts

Water Wars, Begun They Have | ZeroHedge

We are losing soil moisture, why? – by Anastassia Makarieva

THE DEEPER DIVE: The Economic World Order Is Cracking up and Taking the Dollar Down with it

On the Path to War with Iran – Glenn Diesen’s Substack

Peak Population: The Global Reversal Unfolds – by Ugo Bardi

China Halts Rare Earth Exports Desperately Needed by the US – MishTalk

Why Bug Out States Are Not a Good Idea to Move Into

Canadian mayors push federal leaders for action on climate, not pipelines | CBC News

Fox Business pushes “clean coal” and other energy falsehoods to rally behind Trump’s so-called energy dominance plan | Media Matters for America

Trade, Tariffs, Currencies, Colonialism, the Gold Watch and Everything

Election 2025 Part One: Canadian Sovereignty at Stake! Interviews with Politicians and David Orchard. – Global Research

Putting the Earth Back in Model Land | Art Berman

As more communities have to consider relocation, we explore what happens to the land after people leave

Our World Is Paved With Indifference

A Byproduct of Manure Runoff Is Polluting Drinking Water in Thousands of US Communities, According to a New Report – Inside Climate News

How Modern Lifestyles Contribute to Disease – Global Research

No More Heroes Or Seeking Strong Gods

The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada, March 2025: Sales Plunge, Supply Surges, Overall Prices Drop to Multi-Year Lows, Driven by Toronto | Wolf Street


If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).

Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running). 

If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing. 

Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99

Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps… 

https://paypal.me/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US 

If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.

You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.

The Bulletin: April 3-9, 2025

The Bulletin: April 3-9, 2025

This past week’s articles of interest…


Nuclear Infrastructure and Radioactive Threats in a Post-Collapse World

We May Be Directly at War with Russia Already

Green Colonialism Is Still Colonialism

How the US Ran the War In Ukraine

Rewilding 15 Million Acres: Why True Wealth Means More Than Money

Planned blackouts are becoming more common − and not having cash on hand could cost you

Iran, False Flags, and Manufacturing Consent For War

The Amazon rainforest emerges as the new global oil frontier

Everything in Moderation – by Matt Orsagh

Beliefs Versus Facts

Pollinator and Civilizational Collapse

Water Is the New Oil’ as Texas Cities Square Off Over Aquifers – Inside Climate News

Doomed

Chemical industrial farming is unsustainable and does not work: pests evolve immunity – Peak Everything, Overshoot, & Collapse

Net Zero and Other Delusions: What Can’t, Won’t and Might Happen

China Strikes Back With 34 Percent Tariffs, Stocks Plunge Second Day – MishTalk

Great Depression 2.0

Catastrophe Looms Above: Space Junk Problem Grew ‘Significantly Worse’ In 2024 | ZeroHedge

Is a Global Economic Crash Required to Trigger a Social Reset?

Oxygen is running low in inland waters—and human activities are to blame

Did the Bronze Age Collapse Predict Our Future? Ancient Lessons for Modern Civilization

Wars Make the Rich Richer and the Poor Dead

Bye-Bye Saudi America – The Honest Sorcerer

The Collapse of the American Empire – by Ugo Bardi

Words Won’t Cut It – by Rachel Donald – Planet: Critical

The Financial Kessler Effect

Empire Diminished. – by Matt Orsagh

15 Biggest Environmental Problems of 2025 | Earth.Org

How Survivors Spanned The Globe After Earth’s Biggest Mass Extinction – Astrobiology

Pentagon Prepares for Trump to Go Berserk

Maximum Power, Minimum Awareness | Art Berman

3 Shocking Truths Most People Don’t Know About Money in Bank Accounts…

The Doomer’s Dilemma | Collapse of Industrial Civilization

What Are the Rights of Nature? – Inside Climate News

Canada: Liberal Leader Mark Carney Supports Major CBC/Radio-Canada Funding Increases to Combat “Misinformation”

Oil Execs Warn Privately That Trump’s ‘Chaos’ Could Be ‘Disaster’ for Their Industry – DeSmog

“The Bailout Of All Bailouts” Is Coming

We’ve Become Business Partners in the Apocalypse


If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).

Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running). 

If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing. 

Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99

Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps… 

https://paypal.me/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US 

If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.

You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.

 

The Bulletin: March 27-April 2, 2025

The Bulletin: March 27-April 2, 2025

This past week’s articles of interest…

Swedish shoppers boycott supermarkets over ‘runaway’ food prices | Sweden | The Guardian

The future of wetlands: Predicting ecological shifts in the Middle Yangtze River Basin

Agriculture in the Crosshairs: Breadbasket Collapse at 2°C and 3°C

US Government is a Big Money Laundering Operation – John Rubino | Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog

Ukraine Was CIA Regime Change Operation – by Jeffrey Sachs

Collapse: What Would Grok Do? – by Ugo Bardi

Scientists sound the alarm as new study predicts dire consequences of human activity: ‘The power to wipe out entire landscapes’

Clouds may amplify global warming far more than previously understood

States Work To Make Gold and Silver Alternative Currencies To US Dollar

Resistance and the First Amendment: What You Can (and Can’t) Say in a Dying Empire

The Unseen Accelerators of Climate Change and The Final Unraveling | Collapse of Industrial Civilization

Earth’s storage of water in soil, lakes and rivers is dwindling. And it’s especially bad for farming

Earth’s Land Masses Are Drying Out Fast, Scientists Warn – Inside Climate News

Can We Find Unity in Collapse? – by Geoffrey Deihl

Researchers Identify Diets In Mid-Life Linked To Healthy Aging

Foes and Friends of Nuclear Power Face Off Near Three Mile Island

MIT Predicted Society Collapse: Are We Doomed Sooner Than Expected?

From the Archives: So That’s Who’s Screwing Up Everything

Guide to Personal and Household Preparedness

Biodiversity Collapse, Climate Feedback Loops, the Population Bottleneck, and Human Extinction

This Is Collapse. What Do We Do Now?

Honeybee Deaths Surge in US

Ishmael: Chapter 2 | Do the Math

Paris court strips Marine Le Pen of the right to run for public office – at one stroke disqualifying the highest-polling candidate from the 2027 French presidential elections

Biden Lied About Everything, Including Nuclear Risk, During Ukraine Operation

Advanced Economies Are Being Pushed Toward Financial Collapse

Status of US Dollar as Global Reserve Currency: Central Banks Diversify into Other Currencies and Gold | Wolf Street

Ice storm leaves more than 450 000 customers without power in U.S. and Canada

The Loneliness Of Ecological Awareness

The High Price Of War With Iran: $10 Gas And The Collapse Of The US Economy

Rethinking Science, Reclaiming Wisdom | Art Berman

BRACE FOR IMPACT – by Margi Prideaux, PhD – Radically Local

Redrawing Boundaries in a Multipolar World: A New Phase of World War 3



If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).

Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running). 

If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing. 

Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99

Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps… 

https://paypal.me/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US 

If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.

You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.

 

The Bulletin: March 20-26, 2025

The Bulletin: March 20-26, 2025

Threats to U.S. Security: Aging Infrastructure, Fragile Systems, and Information Warfare

The Planet Can’t Afford AI – by Kollibri terre Sonnenblume

The Market Will Crash – Here’s When

Here is how the government will force you to enlist in the army

Sahara flooding, Amazon tributaries drying, warming tipping over 1.5°C—2024 broke all the wrong records

Infrastructure is the collapse indicator no one is talking about

The “Energy Transition” is a Pipe Dream | Jean-Baptiste Fressoz

Health Prepping: Stop Poisoning Yourself, Part 1

True Wealth

Americans See the Risks but Still Do Nothing

The Nuclear War Plan for Iran – Ken Klippenstein

Energy CEOs Ask Canadian Party Leaders To Declare ‘Energy Crisis’, Reduce Oil And Gas Regulations | ZeroHedge

Major-power conflict ‘no longer unimaginable’, Australian intelligence review finds

Forests: The Impossible Mitigation Task – by Ugo Bardi

Trump Invokes Wartime Powers to Boost U.S. Critical Minerals Output | OilPrice.com

How NATO provoked Russia in Ukraine and prevented peace

The Eternal Present: The Good That’s Been Forgotten Has Been Lost

We are in the middle of a climate apocalypse. But do we really care? | The Indian Express

Andean Glaciers Threaten Million People

The Evolution of Modernity – resilience

How Decades Of Factory Farming Paved the Way For Today’s Superbugs Crisis

Is the AI juice worth the carbon squeeze?

The Nuclear Non-Solution – The Honest Sorcerer

The Mad Scramble for Power: Global Superpowers’ Strategies for Energy, Economics, and War

Hegseth Orders Additional Carrier To Middle East Amid Yemen Escalation | ZeroHedge

The Coming Population Crash

A Hidden Risk That Could Trigger Financial Collapse

Iran in the Crosshairs. Mike Whitney – Global Research

Ishmael Overview | Do the Math

How to Die by Living: A User’s Guide to Modern Collapse

Scientists Warn Major Glaciers Won’t ‘Survive This Century,’ With Grave Impacts for Billions | Common Dreams

Scientists identify ‘tipping point’ that caused clumps of toxic Florida seaweed

EPA Considers Giving Oil and Gas Companies More ‘Flexibility’ to Dispose of Highly Toxic Wastewater – Inside Climate News

From deluges to drought: Climate change speeds up water cycle, triggers more extreme weather

Microplastics: a quick beginner’s guide | by The Medium Newsletter | Mar, 2025

Canada Pressures Social Media to Censor Election Content

America’s Self-Destruction Continues


If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).

Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running). 

If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing. 

Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99

Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps… 

https://paypal.me/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US 

If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.

You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.

The Bulletin:  March 13-19, 2025

The Bulletin:  March 13-19, 2025

 


CLICK HERE


The Great Gas Pipeline Caper of 2025 – by Terry Cowan

BlackRock CEO Says American ‘Practicalism’ Can ‘Make Energy Great’ | The Epoch Times

Some Psychology for Responding To a World in Chaos

Can We Feed Ourselves Just out of Our Vegetable Gardens?

The Lost Art of Grieving: Grief as Ritual, Resistance, and Resilience

Welcome to the Era of Energy Realism – by Roger Pielke Jr.

We Have Even Less Time than We Thought to Get Ready for Collapse

Canada’s critical minerals and why Trump wants them

What about installing solar arrays on farms? Isn’t that a good use of land?

You’re Not Special

Acres of Amazon rainforest trees cut down to build road for climate summit

Eukaryotic phytoplankton decline due to ocean acidification could significantly impact global carbon cycle

‘The riskometer has been going up all the time’: Tim Lenton on tipping points – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

When Dissent Becomes a Crime: The War on Political Speech Begins – Global Research

Power and Control- The Vast Censorship Enterprise

The 2027 American War with Canada — A Soldier’s Perspective

The Ponzi Is Crumbling – by Lau Vegys

Mind-Boggling: Microplastics are Blotting Out Photosynthesis

The 7 Fundamental Drivers of Overshoot – by Nate Hagens

The twilight of American hegemony – Collapse Life

Surviving Collapse: Mobility

You’ve Got a Blackout in Pennsylvania | RealClearWire

Doug Casey on Fort Knox, Government Secrecy, and the True Role of Gold

9 Takeaways from the JP Morgan Chase Energy Study You Won’t Want to Miss

Many U.S. bird species seen as reaching population ‘tipping point’ – The Japan Times

Blooming Neo-Imperialism

Europe Faces Late-Winter Test to Its Energy System Resilience | OilPrice.com

Masters of the Universe

What’s the Difference Between “Surplus” and “Waste”? The Waste Is Waste High Quality of Life Economy.

The Global Reset: Energy, Geopolitics, and Market Upheaval | Art Berman

Throwing the Monkey Wrench Into the System

A Civilisation Built on Conflict and Supremacy – George Tsakraklides

Alexa’s Privacy Backtrack: Amazon Pushes All Voice Data to the Cloud

“Beyond Reasonable Doubt”: Former MI6 Head Told Boris Johnson COVID-19 “Was Engineered In The WIV” | ZeroHedge

Degrowth: Sanity in Spiraling Chaos – by Geoffrey Deihl

Saudi Aramco, IEA Chiefs Clash In Houston Over the Future of Oil

Accelerationism

US Treasury Slashes Cash Reporting Threshold to $200, Expanding Financial Surveillance in Border Areas

Trump Is Now At War With Iran

In likely message to Iran, Israeli and US air forces carry out joint drill with heavy bomber | The Times of Israel

US wild bird populations continue steep decline | Climate & Capitalism

Jeff Currie’s “New Joule Order”—A Compelling but Flawed Energy Framework | Art Berman

The Ball Comes to Rest | Do the Math

Trump Says He’s Authorizing Use of Coal for Energy Production | The Epoch Times

Is 100 Years Of Cheap Food Coming To An End?

Shut Up About Trump, It’s Not Resistance

Trump Positions US Military For Imminent War With Iran


If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).

Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running). 

If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing. 

Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99

Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps… 

https://paypal.me/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US 

If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.

You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.

Today’s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh CC–‘Olduvai’: What’s It All About?

Today’s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh CC–
‘Olduvai’: What’s It All About?

Permit me some self-indulgence by way of sharing what my writing is all about for this my 200th Contemplation. This is especially intended for those relatively new to my writing but might also provide some ‘insights’ for those who have been following me for some time.

Sometime in late 2010 I rented the documentary Collapse and my view of the world changed almost overnight.” 

This is how I lead off the ‘About’ section on my personal website that I posted online more than a dozen years ago. It’s been one hell of a rollercoaster ride since that ‘fateful’ videotape viewing which subsequently altered my perspective on almost everything. 

That ‘Star Trek’ future I believed our species and planet were headed towards began to fade rather quickly from my vision. I subsequently travelled through the various stages of grief as my view took on a new, far more uncertain and far less ‘utopian’ perspective.

I have tried to raise awareness with my family and close friends of the impending consequences for and the increasing fragility of our society’s complexities–not with much success, I might add; most prefer to hold onto the comforting narratives of modernity lasting forever and a day. Nowadays, I only discuss the topic within my personal social circle if someone else initiates some concerns.

I believe I have finally reached the stage of acceptance with the realisation that there’s little that our species can do to avoid the negative impacts of pursuing infinite growth on a finite planet (and has resulted in ecological overshoot)–a pursuit that seems to have started off unintentionally and innocently enough, but has become the dominant ‘force’ driving planetary ‘events’ for some time now. Even if humanity were to stop our ecologically-destructive behaviours immediately, the momentum that’s been initiated will ensure some of the worst consequences will still arrive regardless of efforts by our species. 

My fall down the rabbit’s hole of Peak Oil and Ecological Overshoot have resulted in this journey of putting ‘pen to paper’ to express my thoughts. It began as a cathartic exercise with a few chapter drafts of a fictional sojourn by a number of Canadians caught up within and by the repercussions of a failing world. A ‘project’ I initiated due to my long-lived enjoyment of writing and wanting to express my thinking about my reading and ‘research’, even if it was just going to be for my personal use. This eventually transformed into the self-publication of a novel trilogy and the periodic online Contemplations I’ve posted for the last couple of years based on my ‘learnings’. 

My view on things continues to morph and ‘muddy’ (there’s a reason for the saying ‘the more I learn, the more I realise how much I don’t know’). What began as a belief that we could ‘science-our-way-out-of’ the various predicaments we face–especially via our ingenuity and technology–is no longer where I find myself; in fact, far from it. Complexity of the universe and our species’ cognition (particularly its rationalising nature) has me currently questioning almost everything, but especially the dominant ‘stories’ that are told and are meant to help us comprehend (very poorly) the world and continue to pursue ‘business-as-usual’. 

Whether my present beliefs are an accurate reflection of our exceedingly complex world is yet to be determined, I suppose–especially given all the psychological mechanisms, cognitive distortions, and machinations by others that influence my (and everyone’s) perceptions. 

Regardless, below you will find what one of the Large Language Model ‘Artificial Intelligence’ programmes states my writings are all about. These summaries can serve as an introduction and/or detailing of my writing and its orientation for those relatively new to my work which–if the number of subscribers to my various platforms are accurate, and they’re not picking up too many ‘fake’ profiles–has been increasing nicely over the past year or two. 

Before I share these, however, I’d like to take a moment to thank all the people that have purchased close to 700 copies of my novels over the years. I’d love it to be millions more with a television series or major motion picture in the works but, hey, I had a tongue-in-cheek goal of selling 423 copies when I set out self-publishing my initial novel (1 more copy than John Cusack’s character in the movie 2012) and reached that a couple of years ago so all is good. Dwindling sales don’t come close to covering the fees to keep the first novel in print and/or the ever-increasing website/internet fees; however, this was always more of a self-indulgent hobby so, again, all is good. I will, hopefully, continue to keep doing this enjoyable ‘obsession’ for some time. 

As well, I’d like to thank Ron E. who a couple of weeks ago (completely unsolicited) asked how he could financially support my work beyond purchasing the trilogy and motivated me to add the option to ‘Buy Me A Coffee’. A special thank you to Ron and, of course, to the close to 800  ‘followers’ that have signed up to check in on my writing from time to time; I hope you find the writing informative and thought-provoking.

And, finally, a big thank you to the other writers/thinkers with whom I’ve had the pleasure to interact with in a variety of ways. From social media conversations to co-operative writing projects and to personal text messages; your feedback and thoughts are greatly appreciated–even if we don’t always see eye-to-eye. 

Without further ado, I offer the following ‘AI’ summaries in chronological order of my writing. First off is my ‘fictional’ novel, Olduvai, penned mostly in 2012 but had its roots in 2011 after a year of reading all I could in an attempt to better understand the late Michael Ruppert’s claims made in the documentary featuring him, Collapse, mentioned above. 

Second, is my website that was prompted by the company I self-published my novel through (see here) who suggested that I create an online presence to help market the book.

Finally, a summary of my Today’s Contemplations (Website; Medium; Substack) that I have been writing for the past couple of years. 

I believe the summaries have captured relatively well the essence of my work. I leave it to those familiar with it to agree or disagree. For those relatively new to my work, you can check out a ‘mostly’ updated list of my ‘publications’ here


Olduvai Novel

Steve Bull’s novel ‘Olduvai’ is a post-apocalyptic thriller that explores themes of societal collapse, survival, and the fragility of modern civilization. The story is set in a dystopian future where humanity faces a catastrophic breakdown of infrastructure and resources, often referred to as the ‘Olduvai theory’ or ‘Olduvai Gorge theory’. This theory, popularized by Richard C. Duncan, suggests that industrial civilization will have a lifespan of approximately 100 years, after which society will revert to a pre-industrial state.

In the novel, the Olduvai theory serves as the backdrop for a gripping tale of survival as the world descends into chaos. The characters must navigate a collapsing society, dwindling energy supplies, and the breakdown of social order. The story often focuses on the struggles of individuals and groups as they attempt to adapt to a world where technology and modern conveniences are no longer available, and survival depends on resourcefulness, resilience, and often brutal decision-making.

Bull’s ‘Olduvai’ is a dark and thought-provoking exploration of humanity’s vulnerability and the potential consequences of over-reliance on finite resources. It appeals to fans of post-apocalyptic fiction and those interested in speculative scenarios about the future of civilization.


Olduvai Website

Steve Bull’s website, olduvai.ca, serves as a platform for his writings and reflections on topics related to societal collapse, resource depletion, sustainability, and the challenges facing modern civilization. The site is heavily influenced by the ‘Olduvai theory’, a concept popularized by Richard C. Duncan, which suggests that industrial civilization has a limited lifespan and will eventually revert to a pre-industrial state due to the depletion of finite resources, particularly fossil fuels.

Key features of olduvai.ca include:

  1. Essays and Articles: Steve Bull shares his contemplations on issues such as energy depletion, economic instability, environmental degradation, and the potential for societal collapse. These writings often critique the unsustainable practices of modern society and explore possible futures.
  2. Olduvai Theory: The website provides an in-depth exploration of the Olduvai theory, explaining its implications for humanity and how it might play out in the coming decades.
  3. Sustainability and Resilience: Bull discusses strategies for adapting to a post-collapse world, emphasizing self-sufficiency, local solutions, and the importance of community resilience.
  4. Critiques of Modern Society: The site often critiques the over-reliance on technology, globalization, and economic growth, arguing that these systems are inherently fragile and unsustainable.
  5. Personal Reflections: Bull shares his personal thoughts and experiences, offering a candid and often sobering perspective on the state of the world and humanity’s future.

Overall, olduvai.ca is a thought-provoking resource for those interested in peak oil, sustainability, and the potential collapse of industrial civilization. It encourages readers to think critically about the trajectory of modern society and to consider alternative ways of living that are more aligned with the planet’s limits.


Today’s Contemplation

Steve Bull’s ‘Today’s Contemplation’ is a series of essays or reflections that delve into themes related to societal collapse, resource depletion, and the challenges facing modern civilization. Drawing inspiration from the ‘Olduvai theory’—a concept popularized by Richard C. Duncan, which posits that industrial civilization has a limited lifespan and will eventually revert to a pre-industrial state—Bull’s writings often explore the fragility of our current way of life.

In ‘Today’s Contemplation’, Bull discusses topics such as:

  1. ‘Energy Depletion’: The reliance on finite fossil fuels and the potential consequences of dwindling energy resources.
  2. ‘Economic Instability’: The vulnerabilities of global economic systems and the potential for collapse as resources become scarcer.
  3. ‘Environmental Degradation’: The impact of human activity on the planet, including climate change, deforestation, and pollution.
  4. ‘Societal Collapse’: The possibility of a breakdown in social order, infrastructure, and governance as resources become increasingly strained.
  5. ‘Human Resilience’: Reflections on how individuals and communities might adapt to a post-collapse world, emphasizing self-sufficiency and local solutions.

Bull’s work is often critical of the unsustainable trajectory of modern society and serves as a warning about the potential consequences of ignoring the limits of growth and resource consumption. His contemplations are thought-provoking and appeal to readers interested in sustainability, peak oil, and the broader implications of humanity’s impact on the planet.


What is going to be my standard WARNING/ADVICE going forward and that I have reiterated in various ways before this:

“Only time will tell how this all unfolds but there’s nothing wrong with preparing for the worst by ‘collapsing now to avoid the rush’ and pursuing self-sufficiency. By this I mean removing as many dependencies on the Matrix as is possible and making do, locally. And if one can do this without negative impacts upon our fragile ecosystems or do so while creating more resilient ecosystems, all the better. 

Building community (maybe even just household) resilience to as high a level as possible seems prudent given the uncertainties of an unpredictable future. There’s no guarantee it will ensure ‘recovery’ after a significant societal stressor/shock but it should increase the probability of it and that, perhaps, is all we can ‘hope’ for from its pursuit.”


If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).

Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running). 

If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing. 

Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99

Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps… 

https://paypal.me/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US 

If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.

You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.

AND

Released September 30, 2024
It Bears Repeating: Best Of…Volume 2

A compilation of writers focused on the nexus of limits to growth, energy, and ecological overshoot.

With a Foreword by Erik Michaels and Afterword by Dr. Guy McPherson, authors include: Dr. Peter A Victor, George Tsakraklides, Charles Hugh Smith, Dr. Tony Povilitis, Jordan Perry, Matt Orsagh, Justin McAffee, Jack Lowe, The Honest Sorcerer, Fast Eddy, Will Falk, Dr. Ugo Bardi, and Steve Bull.

The document is not a guided narrative towards a singular or overarching message; except, perhaps, that we are in a predicament of our own making with a far more chaotic future ahead of us than most imagine–and most certainly than what mainstream media/politics would have us believe.

Click here to access the document as a PDF file, free to download.

The Bulletin: March 6-12, 2025

The Bulletin: March 6-12, 2025



CLICK HERE


Oil & gas extraction’s move offshore: Trends and risks – Global Energy Monitor 

How Are Microplastics Getting into Our Brain? | Scientific American

Solar and Wind Energy Are Surging But CO2 Is Still Climbing Because of Natural Gas Use | Scientific American

The Collapse of Belief – by Ugo Bardi – The Seneca Effect

The Age of Territorial Expansion | Michael Albertus

Zooplankton study reveals how rising temperatures could lead to population crashes

The Difference Between Hope (Fear) and Courage (No Fear)

Clear-cutting is Clear-cutting, No Matter Where the Trees are From

The Deep State’s War on Truth—Waged with Doublespeak, Delusion and Propaganda – Global Research

President Trump Has Exposed the U.S Side of the Proxy War by Disabling Ukraine Access to U.S. Missile and Drone Targeting Systems – The Last Refuge

“$1 Trillion Labyrinth”: Canada’s Brookfield Investigated By FT For Self-Dealing, Complex Financials | ZeroHedge

As Globalism Breaks, Nations Must Produce Their Own Survival Necessities – Alt-Market.us

EROEI and Civilization’s Forced Decline

Butterfly population in US shrinking by 22% over last 20 years, study shows | US news | The Guardian

Trump is no free speech warrior, he is just as guilty of censorship as Biden

Introducing “Project 451” – by Matt Taibbi – Racket News

A Love Letter to My Old Home – Biocentric with Max Wilbert

Plastic Triggered a New Geological Epoch—and the Evidence May Be in Bird Nests

If You’re Preparing for Collapse, Don’t Forget Your Survival Helmet

Dealing With Crises, Chaos, and Collapse | how to save the world

When Corruption Is the Path – Peak Prosperity

Until Debt Tear Us Apart – The Honest Sorcerer

Science Snippets: WaPo Continues Misleading Its Readership

Climate Change Threatens Earth’s Major Crops, Study Finds – EcoWatch

Going Cold Turkey In Our Addiction Economy

So It Begins: The Disappearing Of Mahmoud Khalil and Authoritarian Capture

Price of Natural Gas Futures Up 140% Year-over-Year: One More Reason for Inflation to Not Back off Easily | Wolf Street

Our Planet-Sized Gordian Knot

We Are Duped Into Blaming Our Problems On Everyone Except Our Rulers

NZ’s glaciers have already lost nearly a third of their ice—as more vanishes, landscapes and lives change

Reuters Fake Fact Check Fails Again – by Paul D. Thacker

Canada First – Trump Unites Canada and Mexico Against the US – MishTalk

URGENT WARNING: Trump is Planning to Invade Canada & Greenland

The Simple Routine That Slashes Your Cancer Risk by 60%

More Guns, Less Butter: Starmer’s Defence Spending Splash – Global Research


If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).

Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running). 

If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing. 

Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99

Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps… 

https://paypal.me/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US 

If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.

You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.

Today’s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh CXCIX– Imperial Longevity, ‘Collapse’ Causes, and Resource Finiteness

Athens, Greece (1984). Photo by author.

 

I thought I would try something a little different in this Contemplation as I work on reading and summarising a chapter from a monograph–Peak Oil, Economic Growth, and Wildlife Conservation. Today’s Contemplation is a Large Language Model Artificial Intelligence-generated summary of three specific questions pertaining to the longevity of ‘empires’, what causes complex societies to ‘collapse’, and what role resource finiteness would play in the longevity of a complex society.

My limited understanding of these computer programmes is that they are exposed to vast datasets of information and then collate this in a summary directed at the query posed. Based upon my personal reading and understanding of the topics I inquired about, the summarised answers below provide a very good synopsis and great starting point for anyone interested in exploring them.

As an aside, I have to wonder how influencing mainstream narratives (something our ruling elite are very good at via numerous avenues) impacts the datasets such programmes depend upon, leading to less-than-accurate summaries/answers to many questions and especially in the sociopolitical and socioeconomic realms–the two areas I would argue that the elite are most interested in ‘managing’ beliefs/perceptions about. But even within areas where the ruling elite may have little skin-in-the-game, and depending upon the prevalent paradigm of the moment, AI-generated responses can simply result in further echoing of the ideas/worldview that are dominant without much critical or outside-the-box thinking involved.

As an example of this is the answer provided to the final question where the impact of finite resources on the longevity of a complex society is proposed to be addressed via increased technological innovation–especially the adoption of ‘renewable’ energy products, given the recognition that our societies are heavily dependent upon hydrocarbons. As I and a few others argue, an increase in mass-produced, complex industrial technologies exacerbates the predicaments we face and are not in any way a ‘solution’. The mainstream zeitgeist, however, is and will probably continue to be that human ingenuity and our technological prowess can address and solve anything that comes our way. There is, after all, a lot of wealth to be made through the pursuit of these technologies and attempting to sustain the unsustainable so it’s important to get that story out and about–repeatedly–and accepted without much in the way of questioning or critical thought.

Our world ‘leaders’ are, if nothing else, fairly consistent in their machinations to ensure they continue to draw revenue streams through whatever means they can control, expand, and/or leverage. And the majority of people outside of the ruling class would prefer to continue and/or improve upon our business-as-usual trajectory rather than think about a less-than-appealing alternative. In fact, my personal experience suggests that the overwhelming majority of people don’t even think about these issues to any degree. But, yeah, let’s put all our eggs in the basket of ecologically-destructive, mass-produced industrial technologies that humanity is so fantastic at spitting out and slap ourselves on the back for our brilliance–Wise Human indeed!

Anyways, without further ado here are the responses I received on my three questions.


How long do empires tend to last?

The lifespan of empires can vary widely depending on numerous factors, including their political structure, economic stability, military power, cultural cohesion, and external pressures. Historically, empires have lasted anywhere from a few decades to several centuries. Here are some examples:

1. Short-lived Empires:
– The Mongol Empire (1206–1368): Lasted about 162 years at its peak, though its fragmentation began earlier.
– The First French Empire (1804–1814/1815): Lasted about 10 years under Napoleon Bonaparte.

2. Medium-lived Empires:
– The Aztec Empire (1428–1521): Lasted about 93 years before falling to Spanish conquistadors.
– The Ottoman Empire (1299–1922): Lasted about 623 years, though its peak power declined significantly after the 17th century.

3. Long-lived Empires:
– The Roman Empire (27 BCE–476 CE in the West, and until 1453 CE in the East): The Western Roman Empire lasted about 500 years, while the Eastern Roman (Byzantine) Empire endured for nearly 1,500 years.
– The Chinese Empires (various dynasties): Some, like the Han Dynasty (206 BCE–220 CE) or the Tang Dynasty (618–907 CE), lasted for centuries, with periods of fragmentation in between.

4. Factors Influencing Longevity:
– Strong Institutions: Empires with stable governance, legal systems, and administrative efficiency tend to last longer.
– Economic Prosperity: Wealth and trade networks can sustain an empire through challenges.
– Military Power: The ability to defend against external threats and maintain internal order is crucial.
– Cultural Cohesion: Shared identity, religion, or ideology can help unify diverse populations.
– Adaptability: Empires that adapt to changing circumstances (e.g., technological advancements, shifting trade routes) are more likely to endure.

On average, empires tend to last between 200 and 300 years, though this is a rough estimate. Many decline due to overexpansion, internal strife, economic decline, or external invasions.


What causes complex societies to collapse?

The collapse of complex societies is a multifaceted phenomenon that can result from a combination of internal and external factors. Historians, archaeologists, and sociologists have identified several recurring causes, often interrelated, that contribute to the decline and fall of complex societies. Here are some of the most significant factors:

1. Environmental Degradation and Resource Depletion
– Deforestation, soil erosion, and overfarming: These can lead to agricultural decline, food shortages, and famine.
– Water mismanagement: Overuse or poor management of water resources can cause droughts and desertification.
– Climate change: Natural shifts in climate (e.g., prolonged droughts, cooling periods) can destabilize societies reliant on specific environmental conditions.

– Example: The collapse of the Maya civilization has been linked to prolonged droughts and deforestation.

2. Economic Instability
– Overextension: Empires that expand too quickly may struggle to maintain control over distant territories, leading to economic strain.
– Resource inequality: Extreme wealth disparity can lead to social unrest and weaken the economic foundation of a society.
– Trade disruption: Loss of trade routes or economic partners can cripple a society’s economy.

– Example: The Roman Empire faced economic troubles due to overexpansion, inflation, and reliance on slave labor.

3. Political Instability and Governance Failure
– Corruption and inefficiency: Weak or corrupt leadership can undermine governance and public trust.
– Succession crises: Power struggles or unclear lines of succession can lead to civil wars or fragmentation.
– Overcentralization: Excessive reliance on a central authority can make a society vulnerable if that authority weakens.

– Example: The fall of the Western Roman Empire was exacerbated by political instability and ineffective leadership.

4. Social Unrest and Inequality
– Class conflict: Extreme inequality between elites and commoners can lead to rebellion or civil war.
– Loss of social cohesion: Divisions along ethnic, religious, or cultural lines can weaken societal unity.

– Example: The French Revolution was fueled by widespread inequality and social discontent.

5. External Pressures
– Invasions and warfare: External attacks or prolonged conflicts can overwhelm a society’s defenses.
– Migration pressures: Influxes of migrants or refugees can strain resources and destabilize societies.

– Example: The fall of the Western Roman Empire was hastened by invasions from Germanic tribes and the Huns.

6. Cultural and Ideological Decline
– Loss of shared identity: A decline in cultural or religious unity can erode societal cohesion.
– Resistance to change: Societies that fail to adapt to new ideas or technologies may stagnate and collapse.

– Example: The decline of the Byzantine Empire was partly due to cultural and religious divisions.

7. Epidemics and Disease
– Population decline: Pandemics can devastate populations, leading to labor shortages and economic collapse.

– Example: The Black Death in the 14th century contributed to the decline of feudal systems in Europe.

8. Technological and Military Stagnation
– Failure to innovate: Societies that fall behind in technological or military advancements may be overtaken by rivals.

– Example: The Aztec Empire was outmatched by Spanish conquistadors due to superior European technology.

9. Interconnected Crises (The “Perfect Storm”)
– Often, collapses result from a combination of the above factors rather than a single cause. For example:
– Environmental stress can lead to food shortages, which trigger social unrest and weaken the state, making it vulnerable to external invasions.

– Example: The Bronze Age Collapse (c. 1200 BCE) involved climate change, invasions, economic disruption, and political fragmentation.

Theories on Societal Collapse

– Joseph Tainter’s “Diminishing Returns of Complexity”: As societies grow more complex, the costs of maintaining that complexity (e.g., bureaucracy, infrastructure) eventually outweigh the benefits, leading to collapse.

– Jared Diamond’s “Five-Point Framework”: In Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed, Diamond identifies environmental damage, climate change, hostile neighbors, loss of trading partners, and societal responses to problems as key factors.

Conclusion

The collapse of complex societies is rarely due to a single cause but rather a combination of environmental, economic, political, social, and external factors. Understanding these dynamics can provide insights into the vulnerabilities of modern societies and the importance of resilience and adaptability.


How will the finiteness of resources impact the longevity of complex societies?

The finiteness of resources is a critical factor that can significantly impact the longevity of complex societies. Throughout history, the availability and management of resources—such as food, water, energy, and raw materials—have played a central role in the rise and fall of civilizations. In the modern era, the finite nature of resources poses unique challenges due to global interconnectedness, population growth, and increasing consumption. Here’s how resource limitations could affect the longevity of complex societies:

1. Resource Depletion
– Non-renewable resources: Fossil fuels, minerals, and metals are finite and will eventually run out or become prohibitively expensive to extract. Societies heavily reliant on these resources (e.g., for energy, manufacturing, or technology) may face economic and social instability as supplies dwindle.
– Renewable resources: Even renewable resources like fresh water, fertile soil, and forests can be overexploited, leading to scarcity and environmental degradation.

Impact: Resource depletion can lead to economic collapse, social unrest, and conflict over remaining supplies, undermining the stability of complex societies.

2. Energy Transition Challenges
– Fossil fuel dependence: Many societies rely on fossil fuels for energy, transportation, and industry. Transitioning to renewable energy sources (e.g., solar, wind) is essential but requires significant investment, infrastructure, and time.
– Energy return on investment (EROI): As finite resources become harder to extract, the energy required to obtain them increases, reducing the net energy available to society.

Impact: A poorly managed energy transition could lead to energy shortages, economic decline, and geopolitical tensions, threatening the stability of complex societies.

3. Food and Water Scarcity
– Agricultural limits: Soil degradation, water scarcity, and climate change can reduce agricultural productivity, leading to food shortages.
– Water stress: Overuse and pollution of freshwater resources can exacerbate water scarcity, particularly in arid regions.

Impact: Food and water shortages can trigger mass migration, social unrest, and conflict, destabilizing societies and straining global systems.

4. Economic Instability
– Resource-driven economies: Societies dependent on finite resources (e.g., oil-exporting nations) may face economic collapse as resources are depleted or demand shifts.
– Inflation and inequality: Scarcity of essential resources can drive up prices, exacerbating economic inequality and social tensions.

Impact: Economic instability can weaken governance, increase poverty, and lead to societal breakdown.

5. Technological and Innovation Limits
– Substitution challenges: While technology can mitigate some resource limitations (e.g., renewable energy, recycling), it may not fully replace finite resources or address all environmental impacts.
– Innovation bottlenecks: Developing and scaling new technologies requires time, investment, and resources, which may be constrained in a resource-scarce world.

Impact: Failure to innovate or adapt to resource constraints could lead to stagnation or decline in complex societies.

6. Environmental Degradation
– Pollution and waste: Overexploitation of resources often leads to environmental damage, such as pollution, deforestation, and loss of biodiversity.
– Climate change: Resource extraction and consumption contribute to greenhouse gas emissions, driving climate change and its associated risks (e.g., extreme weather, sea-level rise).

Impact: Environmental degradation can reduce the carrying capacity of ecosystems, making it harder for societies to sustain themselves.

7. Geopolitical Tensions and Conflict
– Resource competition: Scarcity of critical resources (e.g., water, oil, rare earth metals) can lead to geopolitical tensions and conflict between nations.
– Inequitable distribution: Resource-rich regions may face exploitation or intervention by external powers, while resource-poor regions may struggle to meet basic needs.

Impact: Resource-driven conflicts can destabilize regions, disrupt global trade, and threaten the longevity of complex societies.

8. Social and Cultural Responses
– Adaptation and resilience: Societies that prioritize sustainability, resource efficiency, and equitable distribution may be better equipped to handle resource limitations.
– Resistance to change: Cultural or political resistance to reducing consumption or adopting new technologies can hinder efforts to address resource scarcity.

Impact: Societal responses to resource constraints will play a key role in determining whether complex societies can adapt and endure.

Historical Precedents
– Collapse of the Roman Empire: Overexpansion, resource depletion (e.g., soil degradation), and economic instability contributed to its decline.
– Easter Island: Deforestation and overexploitation of resources led to societal collapse.

– Modern parallels: Current trends in resource depletion, climate change, and environmental degradation raise concerns about the sustainability of modern societies.

Strategies for Longevity

To mitigate the impact of finite resources and enhance the longevity of complex societies, the following strategies are essential:

1. Sustainable Resource Management: Prioritize conservation, recycling, and efficient use of resources.

2. Transition to Renewable Energy: Invest in renewable energy sources and reduce dependence on fossil fuels.

3. Technological Innovation: Develop technologies for resource efficiency, alternative materials, and environmental restoration.

4. Economic Diversification: Reduce reliance on resource-driven economies and promote sustainable industries.

5. Global Cooperation: Address resource scarcity and environmental challenges through international collaboration and equitable resource distribution.

6. Social Adaptation: Foster cultural and behavioral changes that prioritize sustainability and resilience.

Conclusion

The finiteness of resources poses a significant challenge to the longevity of complex societies. While resource limitations can lead to economic instability, environmental degradation, and conflict, proactive measures—such as sustainable resource management, technological innovation, and global cooperation—can help societies adapt and thrive. The ability to balance resource use with environmental and social needs will be critical in ensuring the long-term survival of complex societies in a resource-constrained world.


What is going to be my standard WARNING/ADVICE going forward and that I have reiterated in various ways before this:

“Only time will tell how this all unfolds but there’s nothing wrong with preparing for the worst by ‘collapsing now to avoid the rush’ and pursuing self-sufficiency. By this I mean removing as many dependencies on the Matrix as is possible and making do, locally. And if one can do this without negative impacts upon our fragile ecosystems or do so while creating more resilient ecosystems, all the better.

Building community (maybe even just household) resilience to as high a level as possible seems prudent given the uncertainties of an unpredictable future. There’s no guarantee it will ensure ‘recovery’ after a significant societal stressor/shock but it should increase the probability of it and that, perhaps, is all we can ‘hope’ for from its pursuit.”


If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).

Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running).

If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing.

Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99

Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps…

https://paypal.me/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US

If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.

You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.

AND

Released September 30, 2024
It Bears Repeating: Best Of…Volume 2

A compilation of writers focused on the nexus of limits to growth, energy, and ecological overshoot.

With a Foreword by Erik Michaels and Afterword by Dr. Guy McPherson, authors include: Dr. Peter A Victor, George Tsakraklides, Charles Hugh Smith, Dr. Tony Povilitis, Jordan Perry, Matt Orsagh, Justin McAffee, Jack Lowe, The Honest Sorcerer, Fast Eddy, Will Falk, Dr. Ugo Bardi, and Steve Bull.

The document is not a guided narrative towards a singular or overarching message; except, perhaps, that we are in a predicament of our own making with a far more chaotic future ahead of us than most imagine–and most certainly than what mainstream media/politics would have us believe.

Click here to access the document as a PDF file, free to download.

The Bulletin: February 27-March 5, 2025

The Bulletin: February 27-March 5, 2025


CLICK HERE


The “I Love CO2” campaign continues to gain momentum

The Super Rich Know We’re Doomed

The Psychology Behind the Misunderstanding Of Predicaments

The Milgram experiments: Findings on obedience

5 Things You Can Do This Weekend to Build Personal Resilience

The dark side of going green: Dark triad traits predict organic consumption through virtue signaling, status signaling, and praise from others – ScienceDirect

(Some of) The Central Questions of Our Time

A Monetary Reset Is Coming

A Debt Spiral and US Financial Collapse in the 2030s | NextBigFuture.com

‘Mini-Stagflation’ Will End With A Financial Shock | ZeroHedge

World War III Is Still On The Table: Europe Wants Boots On The Ground In Ukraine – Alt-Market.us

Global debt climbs $7 trillion to record-high $318 trillion in 2024

If Collapse Is A Process, Then So Is Rebuilding

The Local System Builds Community, The Global System Destroys It

The deep sea is a desperate place to drill for more – Peak Everything, Overshoot, & Collapse

Trump, the Unavoidable – by Ugo Bardi – The Seneca Effect

No Escape from Fantasy Land – The Honest Sorcerer

Drill-Baby-Drill for 20 Years: US Natural Gas Production and Exports via LNG & Pipeline Rose to New Records in 2024 | Wolf Street

Trump Moves To Bolster Nation’s Lumber Supplies & Address National Security Risks | ZeroHedge

Europe is Falling & Needs War with Russia – Martin Armstrong | Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog

Science Snippets: Winter Fires, Frost Lost, Droughts Deepen, Precipitation Enhanced by Cloud Feedback

Three essential things to know about microplastics – and how to avoid them | Life and style | The Guardian

We need to stop feeding the beast – by Henrik Nordborg

Report Your Family For Wrong Think, Says German Government Initiative

Trapping Wild Pigs – Doug Casey’s International Man

The Energy Transition That Isn’t

Welcome to the Recession, Trump Hits Canada and Mexico with 25 Percent Tariffs – MishTalk

A chemical ‘trojan horse’: Polymers used in everyday products can degrade into toxic chemicals, study finds

#300: Revolutionary times | Surplus Energy Economics

Energy limits are forcing the economy to contract

Thank God For Shale Oil and Gas

The Biggest Tariff of Them All – George Tsakraklides

Plants Are Losing Their Ability to Absorb Carbon Dioxide as Emissions Rise – EcoWatch

Trump Threatens to Jail Participants of ‘Illegal Protests’ at Schools

The Coming Age of Territorial Expansion: Climate Change Will Fuel Contests—and Maybe Wars—for Land and Resources

Complex Societies Collapse

It Is All About Energy! US in Artificial Intelligence Race Driving Quest for Minerals – Global Research


What is going to be my standard WARNING/ADVICE going forward and that I have reiterated in various ways before this:

“Only time will tell how this all unfolds but there’s nothing wrong with preparing for the worst by ‘collapsing now to avoid the rush’ and pursuing self-sufficiency. By this I mean removing as many dependencies on the Matrix as is possible and making do, locally. And if one can do this without negative impacts upon our fragile ecosystems or do so while creating more resilient ecosystems, all the better. 

Building community (maybe even just household) resilience to as high a level as possible seems prudent given the uncertainties of an unpredictable future. There’s no guarantee it will ensure ‘recovery’ after a significant societal stressor/shock but it should increase the probability of it and that, perhaps, is all we can ‘hope’ for from its pursuit.”


If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).

Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running). 

If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing. 

Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99

Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps… 

https://paypal.me/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US 

If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.

You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.

AND

Released September 30, 2024
It Bears Repeating: Best Of…Volume 2

A compilation of writers focused on the nexus of limits to growth, energy, and ecological overshoot.

With a Foreword by Erik Michaels and Afterword by Dr. Guy McPherson, authors include: Dr. Peter A Victor, George Tsakraklides, Charles Hugh Smith, Dr. Tony Povilitis, Jordan Perry, Matt Orsagh, Justin McAffee, Jack Lowe, The Honest Sorcerer, Fast Eddy, Will Falk, Dr. Ugo Bardi, and Steve Bull.

The document is not a guided narrative towards a singular or overarching message; except, perhaps, that we are in a predicament of our own making with a far more chaotic future ahead of us than most imagine–and most certainly than what mainstream media/politics would have us believe.

Click here to access the document as a PDF file, free to download.

 

The Bulletin: February 20-26, 2025

The Bulletin: February 20-26, 2025

US Flies Bomber Group Over Middle East In Warning To Enemies | ZeroHedge

Bizarre Symptoms of Societal Collapse

Peak Oil. Food. Fascism. Collapse.

Guest post: How the global ‘water gap’ will grow under climate change – Carbon Brief

Bird study finds much larger volumes of toxic PFAS chemicals than previously reported

Trump energy chief says there are upsides to ecological collapse

The ‘Decline’ of Nations: How Elite Surplus and Inequality Lead to Societal Upheaval

The Electrify Everything Myth | Damn the Matrix

The Wider Boundary of Symptom Predicaments

Science Will Not Save Us

Science Snippets: Human Activity Changes Tilt, Rotation of Earth as Arctic Mercury Bomb Poses Threat

Sustainability is destroying the Earth | Deep Green Resistance New York

The Dogs of Chernobyl Are Going Through Strange Genetic Changes. Scientists Are Still Trying to Figure Out Why.

Radioactive leaks found at 75% of US nuke sites – CBS News

Racing to Extinction – by Elisabeth

Action 101: Anatomy of a Campaign

Deconstructing Globalization

Arctic Defence: The Growing Geopolitical Battle for the North | The Epoch Times

Lula pushes oil drilling at mouth of Amazon despite climate risks

A Combination of Supplements and Exercise May Slow Biological Aging

This Next Market Crash Will Break Our Fragile Brains

Solutions: The Art of Avoiding Reality | Art Berman

In 1177 BCE, Civilizations Fell Apart In A Mysterious Simultaneous Collapse | IFLScience

Yves Engler now a Political Prisoner. Protecting Dissident Journalism! The Need for Independent Media! – Global Research

Complexity – Diversity = Fragility – by Eric Keyser

‘Green Grab’: Solar and Wind Boom Sparks Conflicts on Land Use – Yale E360

Scientists discover unexpected decline in global ocean evaporation amid rising sea temperatures

Short-termism is killing the planet – by Jonathan Tonkin

How do you write about collapse, from within in a collapsing world?

Why We’re Failing: We’re Not a Mechanism

The Link Between Soil Health and Water

I Believe The World Is Ending – Does That Make Me Crazy?

The Great Escape | Do the Math

The #1 Warning Sign Capital Controls Are Coming Soon and 3 Ways To Beat Them

Engineered Collapse of the Middle Class

The Great Game Reborn—Energy, Geopolitics, and the Reversal of the Liberal Order | Art Berman

Telling others about peak oil and limits to growth

State of emergency declared after blackout plunges most of Chile into darkness | CNN

Prepping for Others, The True Key to Survival in Collapse

DeepSeek Says Civilisation Is Doomed

Today’s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh CXCVIII–Beyond Peak Oil: Will Our Cities Collapse?

Today’s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh CXCVIII–Beyond Peak Oil: Will Our Cities Collapse?

Tulum, Mexico (1986). Photo by author.

For long-time readers of mine, you will know that I have emphasised repeatedly the importance of energy to human existence and its complex societies. It is the net surplus energy that we have been able to leverage that allows us to continue growing our material throughputs and keep alive our perception of ‘progress’–particularly via our various technological ‘innovations’–and continue to expand (seemingly without limits) our modern complex societies, especially their economies1.

Over the past two centuries in particular, it is the extraction and refinement of relatively easy-to-access and cheap-to-extract, energy-dense petroleum–what some refer to as our ‘master resource’–that has well and truly led to an explosion of trends that began when we first started gathering in large, complex settlements about 10,000-12,000 years ago.

Further, there’s a very good argument to be made that this extraction and use of hydrocarbons is one of the prime causes of a huge leap in our ecological overshoot predicament with its influence upon our various technologies–especially with regard to food production (that has helped to support exponential population growth), resource extraction, and industrialisation.

On the flipside, however, our use of petroleum-derived energy also drives a variety of negative impacts upon the planet and its ecosystems–something ‘growth’ advocates often ignore and/or rationalise away. (Here I would argue that this ‘purposeful’ overlooking of detrimental consequences is primarily to avoid the anxiety-provoking thoughts that arise when one sees these repercussions and recognises their potential for significant and possibly irreversible harm–better to deny these and go along with the majority that wish for a happy ending to this latest experiment in large, complex societies.)

The realisation that hydrocarbons are a finite resource and have seen the easiest-to-access and least-costly-to-procure reserves already extracted has led a number of people to contemplate a future without this fundamental energy resource2. And as with most things, the prognostications about an unknowable future span a wide spectrum of ideas from a return to a stone-age way of life that is ‘short and brutish’3 to a technological-based utopia in sync with the planet’s ecosystems and the limits that exist on a finite planet.

The issues that get ‘debated’ within the ‘Peak Oil-aware community’ are varied and not unlike those that emerge in any complex subject area. The following are only a handful of the subtopics that arise when discussions occur regarding this significantly important resource and our future, and are by no means complete and somewhat overlapping: net surplus energy; energy-return-on-energy-invested (EROEI); diminishing returns; peak timing; conventional vs. unconventional–i.e., types of oil; socioeconomics; sociopolitics; supply vs. demand; ecological impacts; scale required of resources/new technologies to ‘replace’ hydrocarbons’; and biogeophysical limits to continued growth.

I pivoted towards doing archaeological research commentary/summaries in the past year or so to explore what the numerous pre/historical experiments in complex societies tell us about societal ‘collapse’, but came across the article summarised below just as a somewhat contentious debate began to arise within the Peak Oil community regarding the timing of Peak Oil, and the potential reserves that exist and can be extracted by us in our quest to continue growing and supporting our complex, global-industrial societies.

So, I thought it would be interesting to also include summaries of some published articles on the topic of Peak Oil. Below is my first by Dr. Peter Newman that appeared in the Journal of Urban Technology (2007).

The focus of this paper is basically that ‘the right technology can solve the consequences of Peak Oil’. This conclusion is not surprising given the academic focus of the author and the audience that the journal publishes for–its focus is primarily upon sustaining economic growth via ‘smart’ planning and technology.

While there are suggestions made by the author that I fully agree with (such as advocating for localism), there are others that I do not (such as pushing for mass-produced, industrial technologies to counter oil vulnerability). I do not believe we should be pursuing these industrial-based products because there has been increasing evidence that the production of these devices are helping to push greater hydrocarbon demand/use and contributing to the increased broaching of important planetary boundaries as material throughputs grow accordingly. The believers in such technologies to ‘solve’ our various predicaments, however, refuse to acknowledge or rationalise away such evidence; arguing for the most part that there is no other option–mostly ignoring the perspective of those who advocate for a low-/no-tech future.

The question posed in the article title, as to whether cities will ‘collapse’ post-Peak Oil, is in my mind quite clear: they will. All of humanity’s previous experiments in complex societies have ended more or less the same way: a significant simplification (i.e., ‘collapse’). I see little reason or evidence that our globalised, industrialised complex societies will be any different and capable of staving off a return to a far less complex way of living. In fact, I would argue (and have done so repeatedly) that our ‘decline’ may be far more precipitous than in the past given the degree to which we have expanded and become, for the most part, very dependent upon a finite resource that has ‘allowed’ most of our species to lose the skills and knowledge to survive without it.

In fact, it may be that our complex societies are already in the process of ‘collapsing’ but this has been well hidden via narrative management and massive credit-/debt-expansion. Regardless, it is the realisation of this ‘dependency’ that has prompted a concern for some regarding our societal vulnerability to a waning of our master resource and a call for planning in response. The plans to confront oil vulnerability that are highlighted in the summarised article appear to be focussed upon sustaining what is increasingly looking to be unsustainable, being quite blind to a number of issues.

I sense a significant blindness in this article to some specific impacts of declining hydrocarbon availability that cannot be met–or, at least, not well met due to issues of scale–via ‘renewables’ or other innovative technology, but also to the ecological systems destruction wrought by our materials-intensive industries. Instead, we are exposed to an argument that more mass-produced, industrial products are the ‘solution’ to resource decline rather than a reconsideration of the ‘industrial technology as solution’ mythology.

 

Despite the rising evidence that these technological ‘solutions’ are anything but a panacea and actually exacerbating our predicaments, it is my feeling that they will continue to be pursued for a variety of reasons–not least of which are the profiteering motives that are associated with them and the general acceptance by the masses of the marketing narrative (i.e., greenwashing) that surrounds them.


My shorter summary notes of the article can be found below the following post and follow-up comment from a fellow ‘Peak Oiler’ as it is apropos to the above Contemplation. It is from Schuyler Hupp whose insightful commentary within the Peak Oil Facebook group we are both members of I have shared previously. I thank him for giving me permission to do so once again (with some very minor edits):

Energy analysts say that the life cycle of aggregate domestic tight oil production will likely be much shorter than that of conventional oil, which peaked in 1970… So if the peak in aggregate domestic production occurs within the next few decades as some predict, then it would raise a bunch of pretty obvious questions:

1) When will tight oil actually peak?

2) As tight oil goes into terminal decline, what alternative energy resources and technology paradigms will replace oil?

3) What will be the net energy return of those alternatives to oil?

4) Does anyone actually know how to manufacture and maintain those replacements without cheap and abundant fossil hydrocarbons?

5) How long might it take to rebuild the infrastructure of western civilization to accommodate whatever new energy paradigm happens to emerge?

6) If net energy and surplus energy are lower under the new paradigm, with lower economic output and less to go around as a result, how well will societies manage the paradigm shift?

7) If indeed a broader decline scenario ensues, how long might it take before a new social and economic equilibrium is to be reached?

8) How much of a risk is it to assume that technological developments will necessarily materialize, so as to make up for the loss of our most essential resource, the one on which our current civilization is largely based?

Of course oil isn’t the whole energy picture, and although energy has primacy when it comes to economic prosperity, there are other factors to consider such as the broader natural resource base and the health of ecological systems… There’s much food for thought.

PS

I forgot to mention… that chart is for domestic, U.S. production, though it’s implied by “Lower 48 States. There are a number of prominent voices predicting a peak in our tight oil production within the decade. The exact date for global aggregate oil production won’t be known until it’s further behind us, but current data suggests that we may have passed that point as far back as 10 years ago. When tight oil goes into decline it will be a real life lesson in biophysical economics that nobody signed up for; people will have no choice but to adapt.

So far as climate…the range of possibilities is broad, at least from what I’ve seen. When it comes to climate models, when you get to 100 years out, at least the dozen or so I’ve seen… the average surface temperature predictions vary by as much as 400%. It certainly could be that it’s game over for humans and a lot of other species… or it could be that it becomes an evolutionary bottleneck, subsistence to follow… or it could be that things suck, and maybe civilization crumbles, but things somehow continue at a much smaller scale and under a very different paradigm.

Even in the best scenario, I don’t think it would involve 8 billion people living sustainably, or anything close to it. The main takeaway from that oil production data is that economic decline in “developed” nations is at the doorstep. So for a generation or so, it will be a question of how people will adapt physically, psychologically, and socially… Mainly, how people resolve claims on limited resources.

Whatever happens over the longer term, climate wise, is something that will just happen when it happens and to the degree that it happens, regardless of the reality of peaking fossil hydrocarbons, though that certainly won’t hurt when it comes to the climate system. Given the shortcomings of human nature, cognitive and otherwise, there’s no reason to expect preemptive actions toward preventing climate change, certainly not at a broad scale… but people are still going to have to deal with the shorter term challenges with regard to resource limits and economic effects.


Summary Notes

Beyond Peak Oil: Will Our Cities Collapse?
Peter Newman
Journal of Urban Technology 14:2 (2007), pp. 15-30

Acknowledging the inevitable decline in the production of oil fields (and providing a brief introduction regarding the history of this realisation) and arguing that the exact date of Peak Oil is not as relevant as the recognition of it, human societies need to plan for this eventuality as time is running out to prepare adequately. There are four possible scenarios that need to be considered for this planning, especially for urban centres in advanced economies.

  1. Collapse–given pre/historical examples, this is a distinct possibility–especially for those cities that require massive amounts of oil to support their complexities (i.e., those in advanced economies);
  2. Ruralised Cities–a dispersal of urbanites out of the city into the countryside to establish permaculture villages and suburban agriculture is what some envision but is unlikely without a significant population decline as well as the adoption of far more sustainable lifestyles;
  3. Divided Cities–the creation of ‘electrified cores’ for the wealthy few while the remainder of the urban population is on the periphery fighting for survival;
  4. Resilient, Sustainable, Solar City–this is what we should be striving for, an electrified city for all residents.

Arguing that the threat of Peak Oil needs to be taken seriously, the author suggests that the United Nations must take the lead in setting goals for weaning economies off of oil with cities/states creating strategies to accomplish this. Some have begun to explore options, such as the prospects of a Hydrogen Economy.

Cities must plan for significantly reduced car use since they are the factor that most impacts urban vulnerability to oil decline. Public transport must be prioritised (e.g., electric rail lines and buses) as well as mixed land use and denser populations within urban cores and rural lands left for food production.

The impacts from declining oil supplies on agriculture will be significant and we need to halt the expansion of suburban residences onto arable lands. Establishing ‘Horticultural Precincts’ beside urban centres is recommended. Food production needs to become localised and surpluses pursued for trade purposes with nearby communities.

Localism needs to be pushed and innovation in it funded, especially of urban technologies.

A variety of regulations subsidise oil consumption and it is likely that regulations need to be developed to help reduce the use of internal combustion engine vehicles and increase that of hybrid transport. Massive investment in wind farms should occur. As there seems to be no alternatives to hydrocarbons for aviation, unnecessary travel should be reduced via increased pricing.

Advanced economies have virtually no plans for handling oil vulnerability. We need to adapt by using less and shifting our technology.

The more detailed summary notes can be found here.


What is going to be my standard WARNING/ADVICE going forward and that I have reiterated in various ways before this:

“Only time will tell how this all unfolds but there’s nothing wrong with preparing for the worst by ‘collapsing now to avoid the rush’ and pursuing self-sufficiency. By this I mean removing as many dependencies on the Matrix as is possible and making do, locally. And if one can do this without negative impacts upon our fragile ecosystems or do so while creating more resilient ecosystems, all the better.

Building community (maybe even just household) resilience to as high a level as possible seems prudent given the uncertainties of an unpredictable future. There’s no guarantee it will ensure ‘recovery’ after a significant societal stressor/shock but it should increase the probability of it and that, perhaps, is all we can ‘hope’ for from its pursuit.


Some recent and related articles of interest:

What Will Energy Dominance Be Used For? – by Arthur Berman

America’s War On Coal Power-Plants Is Over | ZeroHedge

The Double Bind of Collapse | how to save the world

Ecological Collapse Supersedes Financial Collapse

We Are the Stewards of Our Future – by Nate Hagens

On Human (Over)Population – by Andrea P

Shell’s Flawed Report: The 2025 Energy Security Scenarios

Supercharging the Predicaments We Face

The Renewable Houdini Act – PenguinEmpireReports

Nuclear Fusion Is Just More Bullshit

Solar Panels for Collapse, Are They Worth It? Here’s an Honest Answer.

Overshoot Deficit Disorder – George Tsakraklides

The overshoot myth: you can’t keep burning fossil fuels and expect scientists of the future to get us back to 1.5°C

Averting Collapse Is No Longer Profitable

The world isn’t close to breaking free from coal — in some countries, demand for it is surging

Dr William Rees Our obsolescent brains The climate, economics and overshoot

Peak Oil. Food. Fascism. Collapse.

The Wider Boundary of Symptom Predicaments.


If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).

Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running).

If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing.

Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99

Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps…

https://paypal.me/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US

If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.

You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.

AND

Released September 30, 2024
It Bears Repeating: Best Of…Volume 2

A compilation of writers focused on the nexus of limits to growth, energy, and ecological overshoot.

With a Foreword by Erik Michaels and Afterword by Dr. Guy McPherson, authors include: Dr. Peter A Victor, George Tsakraklides, Charles Hugh Smith, Dr. Tony Povilitis, Jordan Perry, Matt Orsagh, Justin McAffee, Jack Lowe, The Honest Sorcerer, Fast Eddy, Will Falk, Dr. Ugo Bardi, and Steve Bull.

The document is not a guided narrative towards a singular or overarching message; except, perhaps, that we are in a predicament of our own making with a far more chaotic future ahead of us than most imagine–and most certainly than what mainstream media/politics would have us believe.

Click here to access the document as a PDF file, free to download.


1

Although much of the expansion of the past handful of decades can be greatly attributed to a gargantuan increase in debt-/credit-based currencies; including the growth of energy resources.

 

2

Note, however, that some still refuse to accept such finiteness and/or rationalise it away with assertions that a ‘free’ market will adjust to such biogeophysical realities introducing alternatives or humanity will simply colonise other planets and mine passing asteroids for our resource needs once we’ve exhausted our planet’s supplies.

 

3

I would remind readers here that this phrase is often used to describe life before ‘modernity’ and its various technologies but this is not what Thomas Hobbes was referring to when he used it. Hobbes was advocating for strong, central authority as a result of people living in a constant state of fear, lacking the necessities of life, and having to struggle to survive prior to its existence.

The Bulletin: February 13-19, 2025

The Bulletin: February 13-19, 2025

CLICK HERE

 

What Will Energy Dominance Be Used For? – by Arthur Berman

Thirsty For Solutions, Water Scarcity Grips Iraq

Humans will Not Go Gentle into That Good Night

Nine Meals To Chaos

The Double Bind of Collapse | how to save the world

Ecological Collapse Supersedes Financial Collapse

The Crisis Report – 101 – by Richard Crim

We Are the Stewards of Our Future – by Nate Hagens

On Human (Over)Population – by Andrea P

Shell’s Flawed Report: The 2025 Energy Security Scenarios

High-Explosive Drone Pierces Shell Of Chernobyl Nuclear Plant At Very Moment Trump Pushes Ukraine Toward Peace | ZeroHedge

Earthconomics 101: There Is a Killer on the Loose – George Tsakraklides

The War for Mineral Non-Resources – by Ugo Bardi

Are We Doomed? – Biocentric with Max Wilbert

The Tug of War Between Forests and Oceans

The Psychology of Collapse: A Deep Dive in Human Misbehavior

From the Archives: The Epic Failure Of Modern Experts

The Shape of Things to Come – The Honest Sorcerer

Plant Once, Harvest Forever: 15 Perennial Veggies for Endless Abundance – Garden Beds

Science Snippets: Shifts in World’s Largest Ocean Current Linked to Southern Ocean Upwelling During Warm Intervals

Humans Are The Only Animal That Willingly Destroys Their Own Home

How America will collapse (by 2025) | Salon.com

AMOC Collapse: The Looming Climate Catastrophe & Global Consequences

Collapse Dialogue Derailments

The West Faces Uranium Shortage Amid Competition From China and Russia

Money as an Agent of Death – George Tsakraklides

The Story You’ve Been Told About Recycling Is a Lie

Historical Perspective: How the US and the World Fell into the Hands of International Private Bankers – Global Research

Virtual Reality | Do the Math

Prepping isn’t just for preppers anymore—it’s time to get a go-bag | Popular Science

The Bulletin: February 6-12, 2025

The Bulletin: February 6-12, 2025

CLICK HERE

 

The Crises Yet To Come

When efficiency becomes a problem: Jevons Paradox in the Age of AI – Conhecimento Hoje

Supercharging the Predicaments We Face

Please, be a NIMBY – by Elisabeth Robson

Nuclear Fusion Is Just More Bullshit

Break the Consumption Cycle

Why pervasive media propaganda is ultimately self-defeating and destructive to the political class that wields it

Solar Panels for Collapse, Are They Worth It? Here’s an Honest Answer.

Fiji Water Lawsuit Raises Concerns About Microplastics – Newsweek

The Empire Self-Destructs

Overshoot Deficit Disorder – George Tsakraklides

“Recycling” Makes Plastic Pollution Worse

The overshoot myth: you can’t keep burning fossil fuels and expect scientists of the future to get us back to 1.5°C

The end of the dollar has already begun – Collapse Life

The Biggest, Most Corrupt News Organization You Have Never Heard of

Report: Apple Ordered to Provide Gov’t Access to ALL User Data on the Cloud | Headline USA

The Grocery Store Hack That Helps You Avoid Ultra-Processed Foods

The Collapse of the US Elite – by Ugo Bardi

The world isn’t close to breaking free from coal — in some countries, demand for it is surging

Danger of Deep Worldwide Recession in 2025 – Ed Dowd | Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog

World War In the 2030s

299-The Arc Of Inevitability

Dr  William Rees   Our obsolescent brains The climate, economics and overshoot

The Daily: 10 February 2025 – By My Solitary Hearth

12 Simple Things That You Can Start Doing Right Now To Become More Independent Of The System

Not More But Better, Part 1

Earth’s water cycle is off balance for the first time in human history | Climate & Capitalism

Trump Says Talk Of Wanting Canada to Be A Part of US Is Serious | ZeroHedge

In Soviet Germany, the government protests YOU

 

If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).

Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running). 

If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing. 

Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99

Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps… 

https://paypal.me/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US 

If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.

You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.

Olduvai IV: Courage
Click on image to read excerpts

Olduvai II: Exodus
Click on image to purchase

Click on image to purchase @ FriesenPress