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Category Archives: Survival
The Bulletin: March 20-26, 2025
The Bulletin: March 20-26, 2025
Threats to U.S. Security: Aging Infrastructure, Fragile Systems, and Information Warfare
The Planet Can’t Afford AI – by Kollibri terre Sonnenblume
The Market Will Crash – Here’s When
Here is how the government will force you to enlist in the army
Infrastructure is the collapse indicator no one is talking about
The “Energy Transition” is a Pipe Dream | Jean-Baptiste Fressoz
Health Prepping: Stop Poisoning Yourself, Part 1
Americans See the Risks but Still Do Nothing
The Nuclear War Plan for Iran – Ken Klippenstein
Major-power conflict ‘no longer unimaginable’, Australian intelligence review finds
Forests: The Impossible Mitigation Task – by Ugo Bardi
Trump Invokes Wartime Powers to Boost U.S. Critical Minerals Output | OilPrice.com
How NATO provoked Russia in Ukraine and prevented peace
The Eternal Present: The Good That’s Been Forgotten Has Been Lost
We are in the middle of a climate apocalypse. But do we really care? | The Indian Express
Andean Glaciers Threaten Million People
The Evolution of Modernity – resilience
How Decades Of Factory Farming Paved the Way For Today’s Superbugs Crisis
Is the AI juice worth the carbon squeeze?
The Nuclear Non-Solution – The Honest Sorcerer
The Mad Scramble for Power: Global Superpowers’ Strategies for Energy, Economics, and War
Hegseth Orders Additional Carrier To Middle East Amid Yemen Escalation | ZeroHedge
A Hidden Risk That Could Trigger Financial Collapse
Iran in the Crosshairs. Mike Whitney – Global Research
Ishmael Overview | Do the Math
How to Die by Living: A User’s Guide to Modern Collapse
Scientists identify ‘tipping point’ that caused clumps of toxic Florida seaweed
From deluges to drought: Climate change speeds up water cycle, triggers more extreme weather
Microplastics: a quick beginner’s guide | by The Medium Newsletter | Mar, 2025
Canada Pressures Social Media to Censor Election Content
America’s Self-Destruction Continues
If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).
Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running).
If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing.
Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99
Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps…
https://paypal.me/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US
If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.
You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.
The Bulletin: March 13-19, 2025
The Bulletin: March 13-19, 2025
The Great Gas Pipeline Caper of 2025 – by Terry Cowan
BlackRock CEO Says American ‘Practicalism’ Can ‘Make Energy Great’ | The Epoch Times
Some Psychology for Responding To a World in Chaos
Can We Feed Ourselves Just out of Our Vegetable Gardens?
The Lost Art of Grieving: Grief as Ritual, Resistance, and Resilience
Welcome to the Era of Energy Realism – by Roger Pielke Jr.
We Have Even Less Time than We Thought to Get Ready for Collapse
Canada’s critical minerals and why Trump wants them
What about installing solar arrays on farms? Isn’t that a good use of land?
Acres of Amazon rainforest trees cut down to build road for climate summit
When Dissent Becomes a Crime: The War on Political Speech Begins – Global Research
Power and Control- The Vast Censorship Enterprise
The 2027 American War with Canada — A Soldier’s Perspective
The Ponzi Is Crumbling – by Lau Vegys
Mind-Boggling: Microplastics are Blotting Out Photosynthesis
The 7 Fundamental Drivers of Overshoot – by Nate Hagens
The twilight of American hegemony – Collapse Life
You’ve Got a Blackout in Pennsylvania | RealClearWire
Doug Casey on Fort Knox, Government Secrecy, and the True Role of Gold
9 Takeaways from the JP Morgan Chase Energy Study You Won’t Want to Miss
Many U.S. bird species seen as reaching population ‘tipping point’ – The Japan Times
Europe Faces Late-Winter Test to Its Energy System Resilience | OilPrice.com
The Global Reset: Energy, Geopolitics, and Market Upheaval | Art Berman
Throwing the Monkey Wrench Into the System
A Civilisation Built on Conflict and Supremacy – George Tsakraklides
Alexa’s Privacy Backtrack: Amazon Pushes All Voice Data to the Cloud
Degrowth: Sanity in Spiraling Chaos – by Geoffrey Deihl
Saudi Aramco, IEA Chiefs Clash In Houston Over the Future of Oil
US wild bird populations continue steep decline | Climate & Capitalism
Jeff Currie’s “New Joule Order”—A Compelling but Flawed Energy Framework | Art Berman
The Ball Comes to Rest | Do the Math
Trump Says He’s Authorizing Use of Coal for Energy Production | The Epoch Times
Is 100 Years Of Cheap Food Coming To An End?
Shut Up About Trump, It’s Not Resistance
Trump Positions US Military For Imminent War With Iran
If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).
Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running).
If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing.
Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99
Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps…
https://paypal.me/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US
If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.
You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.
Today’s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh CC–‘Olduvai’: What’s It All About?
Today’s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh CC–‘Olduvai’: What’s It All About?
Permit me some self-indulgence by way of sharing what my writing is all about for this my 200th Contemplation. This is especially intended for those relatively new to my writing but might also provide some ‘insights’ for those who have been following me for some time.
“Sometime in late 2010 I rented the documentary Collapse and my view of the world changed almost overnight.”
This is how I lead off the ‘About’ section on my personal website that I posted online more than a dozen years ago. It’s been one hell of a rollercoaster ride since that ‘fateful’ videotape viewing which subsequently altered my perspective on almost everything.
That ‘Star Trek’ future I believed our species and planet were headed towards began to fade rather quickly from my vision. I subsequently travelled through the various stages of grief as my view took on a new, far more uncertain and far less ‘utopian’ perspective.
I have tried to raise awareness with my family and close friends of the impending consequences for and the increasing fragility of our society’s complexities–not with much success, I might add; most prefer to hold onto the comforting narratives of modernity lasting forever and a day. Nowadays, I only discuss the topic within my personal social circle if someone else initiates some concerns.
I believe I have finally reached the stage of acceptance with the realisation that there’s little that our species can do to avoid the negative impacts of pursuing infinite growth on a finite planet (and has resulted in ecological overshoot)–a pursuit that seems to have started off unintentionally and innocently enough, but has become the dominant ‘force’ driving planetary ‘events’ for some time now. Even if humanity were to stop our ecologically-destructive behaviours immediately, the momentum that’s been initiated will ensure some of the worst consequences will still arrive regardless of efforts by our species.
My fall down the rabbit’s hole of Peak Oil and Ecological Overshoot have resulted in this journey of putting ‘pen to paper’ to express my thoughts. It began as a cathartic exercise with a few chapter drafts of a fictional sojourn by a number of Canadians caught up within and by the repercussions of a failing world. A ‘project’ I initiated due to my long-lived enjoyment of writing and wanting to express my thinking about my reading and ‘research’, even if it was just going to be for my personal use. This eventually transformed into the self-publication of a novel trilogy and the periodic online Contemplations I’ve posted for the last couple of years based on my ‘learnings’.
My view on things continues to morph and ‘muddy’ (there’s a reason for the saying ‘the more I learn, the more I realise how much I don’t know’). What began as a belief that we could ‘science-our-way-out-of’ the various predicaments we face–especially via our ingenuity and technology–is no longer where I find myself; in fact, far from it. Complexity of the universe and our species’ cognition (particularly its rationalising nature) has me currently questioning almost everything, but especially the dominant ‘stories’ that are told and are meant to help us comprehend (very poorly) the world and continue to pursue ‘business-as-usual’.
Whether my present beliefs are an accurate reflection of our exceedingly complex world is yet to be determined, I suppose–especially given all the psychological mechanisms, cognitive distortions, and machinations by others that influence my (and everyone’s) perceptions.
Regardless, below you will find what one of the Large Language Model ‘Artificial Intelligence’ programmes states my writings are all about. These summaries can serve as an introduction and/or detailing of my writing and its orientation for those relatively new to my work which–if the number of subscribers to my various platforms are accurate, and they’re not picking up too many ‘fake’ profiles–has been increasing nicely over the past year or two.
Before I share these, however, I’d like to take a moment to thank all the people that have purchased close to 700 copies of my novels over the years. I’d love it to be millions more with a television series or major motion picture in the works but, hey, I had a tongue-in-cheek goal of selling 423 copies when I set out self-publishing my initial novel (1 more copy than John Cusack’s character in the movie 2012) and reached that a couple of years ago so all is good. Dwindling sales don’t come close to covering the fees to keep the first novel in print and/or the ever-increasing website/internet fees; however, this was always more of a self-indulgent hobby so, again, all is good. I will, hopefully, continue to keep doing this enjoyable ‘obsession’ for some time.
As well, I’d like to thank Ron E. who a couple of weeks ago (completely unsolicited) asked how he could financially support my work beyond purchasing the trilogy and motivated me to add the option to ‘Buy Me A Coffee’. A special thank you to Ron and, of course, to the close to 800 ‘followers’ that have signed up to check in on my writing from time to time; I hope you find the writing informative and thought-provoking.
And, finally, a big thank you to the other writers/thinkers with whom I’ve had the pleasure to interact with in a variety of ways. From social media conversations to co-operative writing projects and to personal text messages; your feedback and thoughts are greatly appreciated–even if we don’t always see eye-to-eye.
Without further ado, I offer the following ‘AI’ summaries in chronological order of my writing. First off is my ‘fictional’ novel, Olduvai, penned mostly in 2012 but had its roots in 2011 after a year of reading all I could in an attempt to better understand the late Michael Ruppert’s claims made in the documentary featuring him, Collapse, mentioned above.
Second, is my website that was prompted by the company I self-published my novel through (see here) who suggested that I create an online presence to help market the book.
Finally, a summary of my Today’s Contemplations (Website; Medium; Substack) that I have been writing for the past couple of years.
I believe the summaries have captured relatively well the essence of my work. I leave it to those familiar with it to agree or disagree. For those relatively new to my work, you can check out a ‘mostly’ updated list of my ‘publications’ here.
Olduvai Novel
Steve Bull’s novel ‘Olduvai’ is a post-apocalyptic thriller that explores themes of societal collapse, survival, and the fragility of modern civilization. The story is set in a dystopian future where humanity faces a catastrophic breakdown of infrastructure and resources, often referred to as the ‘Olduvai theory’ or ‘Olduvai Gorge theory’. This theory, popularized by Richard C. Duncan, suggests that industrial civilization will have a lifespan of approximately 100 years, after which society will revert to a pre-industrial state.
In the novel, the Olduvai theory serves as the backdrop for a gripping tale of survival as the world descends into chaos. The characters must navigate a collapsing society, dwindling energy supplies, and the breakdown of social order. The story often focuses on the struggles of individuals and groups as they attempt to adapt to a world where technology and modern conveniences are no longer available, and survival depends on resourcefulness, resilience, and often brutal decision-making.
Bull’s ‘Olduvai’ is a dark and thought-provoking exploration of humanity’s vulnerability and the potential consequences of over-reliance on finite resources. It appeals to fans of post-apocalyptic fiction and those interested in speculative scenarios about the future of civilization.
Olduvai Website
Steve Bull’s website, olduvai.ca, serves as a platform for his writings and reflections on topics related to societal collapse, resource depletion, sustainability, and the challenges facing modern civilization. The site is heavily influenced by the ‘Olduvai theory’, a concept popularized by Richard C. Duncan, which suggests that industrial civilization has a limited lifespan and will eventually revert to a pre-industrial state due to the depletion of finite resources, particularly fossil fuels.
Key features of olduvai.ca include:
- Essays and Articles: Steve Bull shares his contemplations on issues such as energy depletion, economic instability, environmental degradation, and the potential for societal collapse. These writings often critique the unsustainable practices of modern society and explore possible futures.
- Olduvai Theory: The website provides an in-depth exploration of the Olduvai theory, explaining its implications for humanity and how it might play out in the coming decades.
- Sustainability and Resilience: Bull discusses strategies for adapting to a post-collapse world, emphasizing self-sufficiency, local solutions, and the importance of community resilience.
- Critiques of Modern Society: The site often critiques the over-reliance on technology, globalization, and economic growth, arguing that these systems are inherently fragile and unsustainable.
- Personal Reflections: Bull shares his personal thoughts and experiences, offering a candid and often sobering perspective on the state of the world and humanity’s future.
Overall, olduvai.ca is a thought-provoking resource for those interested in peak oil, sustainability, and the potential collapse of industrial civilization. It encourages readers to think critically about the trajectory of modern society and to consider alternative ways of living that are more aligned with the planet’s limits.
Today’s Contemplation
Steve Bull’s ‘Today’s Contemplation’ is a series of essays or reflections that delve into themes related to societal collapse, resource depletion, and the challenges facing modern civilization. Drawing inspiration from the ‘Olduvai theory’—a concept popularized by Richard C. Duncan, which posits that industrial civilization has a limited lifespan and will eventually revert to a pre-industrial state—Bull’s writings often explore the fragility of our current way of life.
In ‘Today’s Contemplation’, Bull discusses topics such as:
- ‘Energy Depletion’: The reliance on finite fossil fuels and the potential consequences of dwindling energy resources.
- ‘Economic Instability’: The vulnerabilities of global economic systems and the potential for collapse as resources become scarcer.
- ‘Environmental Degradation’: The impact of human activity on the planet, including climate change, deforestation, and pollution.
- ‘Societal Collapse’: The possibility of a breakdown in social order, infrastructure, and governance as resources become increasingly strained.
- ‘Human Resilience’: Reflections on how individuals and communities might adapt to a post-collapse world, emphasizing self-sufficiency and local solutions.
Bull’s work is often critical of the unsustainable trajectory of modern society and serves as a warning about the potential consequences of ignoring the limits of growth and resource consumption. His contemplations are thought-provoking and appeal to readers interested in sustainability, peak oil, and the broader implications of humanity’s impact on the planet.
What is going to be my standard WARNING/ADVICE going forward and that I have reiterated in various ways before this:
“Only time will tell how this all unfolds but there’s nothing wrong with preparing for the worst by ‘collapsing now to avoid the rush’ and pursuing self-sufficiency. By this I mean removing as many dependencies on the Matrix as is possible and making do, locally. And if one can do this without negative impacts upon our fragile ecosystems or do so while creating more resilient ecosystems, all the better.
Building community (maybe even just household) resilience to as high a level as possible seems prudent given the uncertainties of an unpredictable future. There’s no guarantee it will ensure ‘recovery’ after a significant societal stressor/shock but it should increase the probability of it and that, perhaps, is all we can ‘hope’ for from its pursuit.”
If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).
Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running).
If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing.
Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99
Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps…
https://paypal.me/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US
If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.
You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.
AND
Released September 30, 2024
It Bears Repeating: Best Of…Volume 2
A compilation of writers focused on the nexus of limits to growth, energy, and ecological overshoot.
With a Foreword by Erik Michaels and Afterword by Dr. Guy McPherson, authors include: Dr. Peter A Victor, George Tsakraklides, Charles Hugh Smith, Dr. Tony Povilitis, Jordan Perry, Matt Orsagh, Justin McAffee, Jack Lowe, The Honest Sorcerer, Fast Eddy, Will Falk, Dr. Ugo Bardi, and Steve Bull.
The document is not a guided narrative towards a singular or overarching message; except, perhaps, that we are in a predicament of our own making with a far more chaotic future ahead of us than most imagine–and most certainly than what mainstream media/politics would have us believe.
Click here to access the document as a PDF file, free to download.
The Bulletin: March 6-12, 2025
The Bulletin: March 6-12, 2025
Oil & gas extraction’s move offshore: Trends and risks – Global Energy Monitor
How Are Microplastics Getting into Our Brain? | Scientific American
The Collapse of Belief – by Ugo Bardi – The Seneca Effect
The Age of Territorial Expansion | Michael Albertus
Zooplankton study reveals how rising temperatures could lead to population crashes
The Difference Between Hope (Fear) and Courage (No Fear)
Clear-cutting is Clear-cutting, No Matter Where the Trees are From
The Deep State’s War on Truth—Waged with Doublespeak, Delusion and Propaganda – Global Research
As Globalism Breaks, Nations Must Produce Their Own Survival Necessities – Alt-Market.us
EROEI and Civilization’s Forced Decline
Butterfly population in US shrinking by 22% over last 20 years, study shows | US news | The Guardian
Trump is no free speech warrior, he is just as guilty of censorship as Biden
Introducing “Project 451” – by Matt Taibbi – Racket News
A Love Letter to My Old Home – Biocentric with Max Wilbert
Plastic Triggered a New Geological Epoch—and the Evidence May Be in Bird Nests
If You’re Preparing for Collapse, Don’t Forget Your Survival Helmet
Dealing With Crises, Chaos, and Collapse | how to save the world
When Corruption Is the Path – Peak Prosperity
Until Debt Tear Us Apart – The Honest Sorcerer
Science Snippets: WaPo Continues Misleading Its Readership
Climate Change Threatens Earth’s Major Crops, Study Finds – EcoWatch
Going Cold Turkey In Our Addiction Economy
So It Begins: The Disappearing Of Mahmoud Khalil and Authoritarian Capture
We Are Duped Into Blaming Our Problems On Everyone Except Our Rulers
Reuters Fake Fact Check Fails Again – by Paul D. Thacker
Canada First – Trump Unites Canada and Mexico Against the US – MishTalk
URGENT WARNING: Trump is Planning to Invade Canada & Greenland
The Simple Routine That Slashes Your Cancer Risk by 60%
More Guns, Less Butter: Starmer’s Defence Spending Splash – Global Research
If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).
Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running).
If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing.
Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99
Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps…
https://paypal.me/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US
If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.
You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.
Today’s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh CXCIX– Imperial Longevity, ‘Collapse’ Causes, and Resource Finiteness

I thought I would try something a little different in this Contemplation as I work on reading and summarising a chapter from a monograph–Peak Oil, Economic Growth, and Wildlife Conservation. Today’s Contemplation is a Large Language Model Artificial Intelligence-generated summary of three specific questions pertaining to the longevity of ‘empires’, what causes complex societies to ‘collapse’, and what role resource finiteness would play in the longevity of a complex society.
My limited understanding of these computer programmes is that they are exposed to vast datasets of information and then collate this in a summary directed at the query posed. Based upon my personal reading and understanding of the topics I inquired about, the summarised answers below provide a very good synopsis and great starting point for anyone interested in exploring them.
As an aside, I have to wonder how influencing mainstream narratives (something our ruling elite are very good at via numerous avenues) impacts the datasets such programmes depend upon, leading to less-than-accurate summaries/answers to many questions and especially in the sociopolitical and socioeconomic realms–the two areas I would argue that the elite are most interested in ‘managing’ beliefs/perceptions about. But even within areas where the ruling elite may have little skin-in-the-game, and depending upon the prevalent paradigm of the moment, AI-generated responses can simply result in further echoing of the ideas/worldview that are dominant without much critical or outside-the-box thinking involved.
As an example of this is the answer provided to the final question where the impact of finite resources on the longevity of a complex society is proposed to be addressed via increased technological innovation–especially the adoption of ‘renewable’ energy products, given the recognition that our societies are heavily dependent upon hydrocarbons. As I and a few others argue, an increase in mass-produced, complex industrial technologies exacerbates the predicaments we face and are not in any way a ‘solution’. The mainstream zeitgeist, however, is and will probably continue to be that human ingenuity and our technological prowess can address and solve anything that comes our way. There is, after all, a lot of wealth to be made through the pursuit of these technologies and attempting to sustain the unsustainable so it’s important to get that story out and about–repeatedly–and accepted without much in the way of questioning or critical thought.
Our world ‘leaders’ are, if nothing else, fairly consistent in their machinations to ensure they continue to draw revenue streams through whatever means they can control, expand, and/or leverage. And the majority of people outside of the ruling class would prefer to continue and/or improve upon our business-as-usual trajectory rather than think about a less-than-appealing alternative. In fact, my personal experience suggests that the overwhelming majority of people don’t even think about these issues to any degree. But, yeah, let’s put all our eggs in the basket of ecologically-destructive, mass-produced industrial technologies that humanity is so fantastic at spitting out and slap ourselves on the back for our brilliance–Wise Human indeed!
Anyways, without further ado here are the responses I received on my three questions.
How long do empires tend to last?
The lifespan of empires can vary widely depending on numerous factors, including their political structure, economic stability, military power, cultural cohesion, and external pressures. Historically, empires have lasted anywhere from a few decades to several centuries. Here are some examples:
1. Short-lived Empires:
– The Mongol Empire (1206–1368): Lasted about 162 years at its peak, though its fragmentation began earlier.
– The First French Empire (1804–1814/1815): Lasted about 10 years under Napoleon Bonaparte.
2. Medium-lived Empires:
– The Aztec Empire (1428–1521): Lasted about 93 years before falling to Spanish conquistadors.
– The Ottoman Empire (1299–1922): Lasted about 623 years, though its peak power declined significantly after the 17th century.
3. Long-lived Empires:
– The Roman Empire (27 BCE–476 CE in the West, and until 1453 CE in the East): The Western Roman Empire lasted about 500 years, while the Eastern Roman (Byzantine) Empire endured for nearly 1,500 years.
– The Chinese Empires (various dynasties): Some, like the Han Dynasty (206 BCE–220 CE) or the Tang Dynasty (618–907 CE), lasted for centuries, with periods of fragmentation in between.
4. Factors Influencing Longevity:
– Strong Institutions: Empires with stable governance, legal systems, and administrative efficiency tend to last longer.
– Economic Prosperity: Wealth and trade networks can sustain an empire through challenges.
– Military Power: The ability to defend against external threats and maintain internal order is crucial.
– Cultural Cohesion: Shared identity, religion, or ideology can help unify diverse populations.
– Adaptability: Empires that adapt to changing circumstances (e.g., technological advancements, shifting trade routes) are more likely to endure.
On average, empires tend to last between 200 and 300 years, though this is a rough estimate. Many decline due to overexpansion, internal strife, economic decline, or external invasions.
What causes complex societies to collapse?
The collapse of complex societies is a multifaceted phenomenon that can result from a combination of internal and external factors. Historians, archaeologists, and sociologists have identified several recurring causes, often interrelated, that contribute to the decline and fall of complex societies. Here are some of the most significant factors:
1. Environmental Degradation and Resource Depletion
– Deforestation, soil erosion, and overfarming: These can lead to agricultural decline, food shortages, and famine.
– Water mismanagement: Overuse or poor management of water resources can cause droughts and desertification.
– Climate change: Natural shifts in climate (e.g., prolonged droughts, cooling periods) can destabilize societies reliant on specific environmental conditions.
– Example: The collapse of the Maya civilization has been linked to prolonged droughts and deforestation.
2. Economic Instability
– Overextension: Empires that expand too quickly may struggle to maintain control over distant territories, leading to economic strain.
– Resource inequality: Extreme wealth disparity can lead to social unrest and weaken the economic foundation of a society.
– Trade disruption: Loss of trade routes or economic partners can cripple a society’s economy.
– Example: The Roman Empire faced economic troubles due to overexpansion, inflation, and reliance on slave labor.
3. Political Instability and Governance Failure
– Corruption and inefficiency: Weak or corrupt leadership can undermine governance and public trust.
– Succession crises: Power struggles or unclear lines of succession can lead to civil wars or fragmentation.
– Overcentralization: Excessive reliance on a central authority can make a society vulnerable if that authority weakens.
– Example: The fall of the Western Roman Empire was exacerbated by political instability and ineffective leadership.
4. Social Unrest and Inequality
– Class conflict: Extreme inequality between elites and commoners can lead to rebellion or civil war.
– Loss of social cohesion: Divisions along ethnic, religious, or cultural lines can weaken societal unity.
– Example: The French Revolution was fueled by widespread inequality and social discontent.
5. External Pressures
– Invasions and warfare: External attacks or prolonged conflicts can overwhelm a society’s defenses.
– Migration pressures: Influxes of migrants or refugees can strain resources and destabilize societies.
– Example: The fall of the Western Roman Empire was hastened by invasions from Germanic tribes and the Huns.
6. Cultural and Ideological Decline
– Loss of shared identity: A decline in cultural or religious unity can erode societal cohesion.
– Resistance to change: Societies that fail to adapt to new ideas or technologies may stagnate and collapse.
– Example: The decline of the Byzantine Empire was partly due to cultural and religious divisions.
7. Epidemics and Disease
– Population decline: Pandemics can devastate populations, leading to labor shortages and economic collapse.
– Example: The Black Death in the 14th century contributed to the decline of feudal systems in Europe.
8. Technological and Military Stagnation
– Failure to innovate: Societies that fall behind in technological or military advancements may be overtaken by rivals.
– Example: The Aztec Empire was outmatched by Spanish conquistadors due to superior European technology.
9. Interconnected Crises (The “Perfect Storm”)
– Often, collapses result from a combination of the above factors rather than a single cause. For example:
– Environmental stress can lead to food shortages, which trigger social unrest and weaken the state, making it vulnerable to external invasions.
– Example: The Bronze Age Collapse (c. 1200 BCE) involved climate change, invasions, economic disruption, and political fragmentation.
Theories on Societal Collapse
– Joseph Tainter’s “Diminishing Returns of Complexity”: As societies grow more complex, the costs of maintaining that complexity (e.g., bureaucracy, infrastructure) eventually outweigh the benefits, leading to collapse.
– Jared Diamond’s “Five-Point Framework”: In Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed, Diamond identifies environmental damage, climate change, hostile neighbors, loss of trading partners, and societal responses to problems as key factors.
Conclusion
The collapse of complex societies is rarely due to a single cause but rather a combination of environmental, economic, political, social, and external factors. Understanding these dynamics can provide insights into the vulnerabilities of modern societies and the importance of resilience and adaptability.
How will the finiteness of resources impact the longevity of complex societies?
The finiteness of resources is a critical factor that can significantly impact the longevity of complex societies. Throughout history, the availability and management of resources—such as food, water, energy, and raw materials—have played a central role in the rise and fall of civilizations. In the modern era, the finite nature of resources poses unique challenges due to global interconnectedness, population growth, and increasing consumption. Here’s how resource limitations could affect the longevity of complex societies:
1. Resource Depletion
– Non-renewable resources: Fossil fuels, minerals, and metals are finite and will eventually run out or become prohibitively expensive to extract. Societies heavily reliant on these resources (e.g., for energy, manufacturing, or technology) may face economic and social instability as supplies dwindle.
– Renewable resources: Even renewable resources like fresh water, fertile soil, and forests can be overexploited, leading to scarcity and environmental degradation.
Impact: Resource depletion can lead to economic collapse, social unrest, and conflict over remaining supplies, undermining the stability of complex societies.
2. Energy Transition Challenges
– Fossil fuel dependence: Many societies rely on fossil fuels for energy, transportation, and industry. Transitioning to renewable energy sources (e.g., solar, wind) is essential but requires significant investment, infrastructure, and time.
– Energy return on investment (EROI): As finite resources become harder to extract, the energy required to obtain them increases, reducing the net energy available to society.
Impact: A poorly managed energy transition could lead to energy shortages, economic decline, and geopolitical tensions, threatening the stability of complex societies.
3. Food and Water Scarcity
– Agricultural limits: Soil degradation, water scarcity, and climate change can reduce agricultural productivity, leading to food shortages.
– Water stress: Overuse and pollution of freshwater resources can exacerbate water scarcity, particularly in arid regions.
Impact: Food and water shortages can trigger mass migration, social unrest, and conflict, destabilizing societies and straining global systems.
4. Economic Instability
– Resource-driven economies: Societies dependent on finite resources (e.g., oil-exporting nations) may face economic collapse as resources are depleted or demand shifts.
– Inflation and inequality: Scarcity of essential resources can drive up prices, exacerbating economic inequality and social tensions.
Impact: Economic instability can weaken governance, increase poverty, and lead to societal breakdown.
5. Technological and Innovation Limits
– Substitution challenges: While technology can mitigate some resource limitations (e.g., renewable energy, recycling), it may not fully replace finite resources or address all environmental impacts.
– Innovation bottlenecks: Developing and scaling new technologies requires time, investment, and resources, which may be constrained in a resource-scarce world.
Impact: Failure to innovate or adapt to resource constraints could lead to stagnation or decline in complex societies.
6. Environmental Degradation
– Pollution and waste: Overexploitation of resources often leads to environmental damage, such as pollution, deforestation, and loss of biodiversity.
– Climate change: Resource extraction and consumption contribute to greenhouse gas emissions, driving climate change and its associated risks (e.g., extreme weather, sea-level rise).
Impact: Environmental degradation can reduce the carrying capacity of ecosystems, making it harder for societies to sustain themselves.
7. Geopolitical Tensions and Conflict
– Resource competition: Scarcity of critical resources (e.g., water, oil, rare earth metals) can lead to geopolitical tensions and conflict between nations.
– Inequitable distribution: Resource-rich regions may face exploitation or intervention by external powers, while resource-poor regions may struggle to meet basic needs.
Impact: Resource-driven conflicts can destabilize regions, disrupt global trade, and threaten the longevity of complex societies.
8. Social and Cultural Responses
– Adaptation and resilience: Societies that prioritize sustainability, resource efficiency, and equitable distribution may be better equipped to handle resource limitations.
– Resistance to change: Cultural or political resistance to reducing consumption or adopting new technologies can hinder efforts to address resource scarcity.
Impact: Societal responses to resource constraints will play a key role in determining whether complex societies can adapt and endure.
Historical Precedents
– Collapse of the Roman Empire: Overexpansion, resource depletion (e.g., soil degradation), and economic instability contributed to its decline.
– Easter Island: Deforestation and overexploitation of resources led to societal collapse.
– Modern parallels: Current trends in resource depletion, climate change, and environmental degradation raise concerns about the sustainability of modern societies.
Strategies for Longevity
To mitigate the impact of finite resources and enhance the longevity of complex societies, the following strategies are essential:
1. Sustainable Resource Management: Prioritize conservation, recycling, and efficient use of resources.
2. Transition to Renewable Energy: Invest in renewable energy sources and reduce dependence on fossil fuels.
3. Technological Innovation: Develop technologies for resource efficiency, alternative materials, and environmental restoration.
4. Economic Diversification: Reduce reliance on resource-driven economies and promote sustainable industries.
5. Global Cooperation: Address resource scarcity and environmental challenges through international collaboration and equitable resource distribution.
6. Social Adaptation: Foster cultural and behavioral changes that prioritize sustainability and resilience.
Conclusion
The finiteness of resources poses a significant challenge to the longevity of complex societies. While resource limitations can lead to economic instability, environmental degradation, and conflict, proactive measures—such as sustainable resource management, technological innovation, and global cooperation—can help societies adapt and thrive. The ability to balance resource use with environmental and social needs will be critical in ensuring the long-term survival of complex societies in a resource-constrained world.
What is going to be my standard WARNING/ADVICE going forward and that I have reiterated in various ways before this:
“Only time will tell how this all unfolds but there’s nothing wrong with preparing for the worst by ‘collapsing now to avoid the rush’ and pursuing self-sufficiency. By this I mean removing as many dependencies on the Matrix as is possible and making do, locally. And if one can do this without negative impacts upon our fragile ecosystems or do so while creating more resilient ecosystems, all the better.
Building community (maybe even just household) resilience to as high a level as possible seems prudent given the uncertainties of an unpredictable future. There’s no guarantee it will ensure ‘recovery’ after a significant societal stressor/shock but it should increase the probability of it and that, perhaps, is all we can ‘hope’ for from its pursuit.”
If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).
Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running).
If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing.
Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99
Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps…
https://paypal.me/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US
If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.
You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.
AND
Released September 30, 2024
It Bears Repeating: Best Of…Volume 2
A compilation of writers focused on the nexus of limits to growth, energy, and ecological overshoot.
With a Foreword by Erik Michaels and Afterword by Dr. Guy McPherson, authors include: Dr. Peter A Victor, George Tsakraklides, Charles Hugh Smith, Dr. Tony Povilitis, Jordan Perry, Matt Orsagh, Justin McAffee, Jack Lowe, The Honest Sorcerer, Fast Eddy, Will Falk, Dr. Ugo Bardi, and Steve Bull.
The document is not a guided narrative towards a singular or overarching message; except, perhaps, that we are in a predicament of our own making with a far more chaotic future ahead of us than most imagine–and most certainly than what mainstream media/politics would have us believe.
Click here to access the document as a PDF file, free to download.
The Bulletin: February 27-March 5, 2025
The Bulletin: February 27-March 5, 2025
CLICK HERE
The “I Love CO2” campaign continues to gain momentum
The Super Rich Know We’re Doomed
The Psychology Behind the Misunderstanding Of Predicaments
The Milgram experiments: Findings on obedience
5 Things You Can Do This Weekend to Build Personal Resilience
(Some of) The Central Questions of Our Time
A Debt Spiral and US Financial Collapse in the 2030s | NextBigFuture.com
‘Mini-Stagflation’ Will End With A Financial Shock | ZeroHedge
World War III Is Still On The Table: Europe Wants Boots On The Ground In Ukraine – Alt-Market.us
Global debt climbs $7 trillion to record-high $318 trillion in 2024
If Collapse Is A Process, Then So Is Rebuilding
The Local System Builds Community, The Global System Destroys It
The deep sea is a desperate place to drill for more – Peak Everything, Overshoot, & Collapse
Trump, the Unavoidable – by Ugo Bardi – The Seneca Effect
No Escape from Fantasy Land – The Honest Sorcerer
Trump Moves To Bolster Nation’s Lumber Supplies & Address National Security Risks | ZeroHedge
Europe is Falling & Needs War with Russia – Martin Armstrong | Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog
We need to stop feeding the beast – by Henrik Nordborg
Report Your Family For Wrong Think, Says German Government Initiative
Trapping Wild Pigs – Doug Casey’s International Man
The Energy Transition That Isn’t
Welcome to the Recession, Trump Hits Canada and Mexico with 25 Percent Tariffs – MishTalk
#300: Revolutionary times | Surplus Energy Economics
Energy limits are forcing the economy to contract
Thank God For Shale Oil and Gas
The Biggest Tariff of Them All – George Tsakraklides
Plants Are Losing Their Ability to Absorb Carbon Dioxide as Emissions Rise – EcoWatch
Trump Threatens to Jail Participants of ‘Illegal Protests’ at Schools
What is going to be my standard WARNING/ADVICE going forward and that I have reiterated in various ways before this:
“Only time will tell how this all unfolds but there’s nothing wrong with preparing for the worst by ‘collapsing now to avoid the rush’ and pursuing self-sufficiency. By this I mean removing as many dependencies on the Matrix as is possible and making do, locally. And if one can do this without negative impacts upon our fragile ecosystems or do so while creating more resilient ecosystems, all the better.
Building community (maybe even just household) resilience to as high a level as possible seems prudent given the uncertainties of an unpredictable future. There’s no guarantee it will ensure ‘recovery’ after a significant societal stressor/shock but it should increase the probability of it and that, perhaps, is all we can ‘hope’ for from its pursuit.”
If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).
Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running).
If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing.
Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99
Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps…
https://paypal.me/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US
If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.
You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.
AND
Released September 30, 2024
It Bears Repeating: Best Of…Volume 2
A compilation of writers focused on the nexus of limits to growth, energy, and ecological overshoot.
With a Foreword by Erik Michaels and Afterword by Dr. Guy McPherson, authors include: Dr. Peter A Victor, George Tsakraklides, Charles Hugh Smith, Dr. Tony Povilitis, Jordan Perry, Matt Orsagh, Justin McAffee, Jack Lowe, The Honest Sorcerer, Fast Eddy, Will Falk, Dr. Ugo Bardi, and Steve Bull.
The document is not a guided narrative towards a singular or overarching message; except, perhaps, that we are in a predicament of our own making with a far more chaotic future ahead of us than most imagine–and most certainly than what mainstream media/politics would have us believe.
Click here to access the document as a PDF file, free to download.
The Bulletin: February 20-26, 2025
The Bulletin: February 20-26, 2025

US Flies Bomber Group Over Middle East In Warning To Enemies | ZeroHedge
Bizarre Symptoms of Societal Collapse
Peak Oil. Food. Fascism. Collapse.
Guest post: How the global ‘water gap’ will grow under climate change – Carbon Brief
Bird study finds much larger volumes of toxic PFAS chemicals than previously reported
Trump energy chief says there are upsides to ecological collapse
The ‘Decline’ of Nations: How Elite Surplus and Inequality Lead to Societal Upheaval
The Electrify Everything Myth | Damn the Matrix
The Wider Boundary of Symptom Predicaments
Science Snippets: Human Activity Changes Tilt, Rotation of Earth as Arctic Mercury Bomb Poses Threat
Sustainability is destroying the Earth | Deep Green Resistance New York
Radioactive leaks found at 75% of US nuke sites – CBS News
Racing to Extinction – by Elisabeth
Action 101: Anatomy of a Campaign
Arctic Defence: The Growing Geopolitical Battle for the North | The Epoch Times
Lula pushes oil drilling at mouth of Amazon despite climate risks
A Combination of Supplements and Exercise May Slow Biological Aging
This Next Market Crash Will Break Our Fragile Brains
Solutions: The Art of Avoiding Reality | Art Berman
In 1177 BCE, Civilizations Fell Apart In A Mysterious Simultaneous Collapse | IFLScience
Complexity – Diversity = Fragility – by Eric Keyser
‘Green Grab’: Solar and Wind Boom Sparks Conflicts on Land Use – Yale E360
Scientists discover unexpected decline in global ocean evaporation amid rising sea temperatures
Short-termism is killing the planet – by Jonathan Tonkin
How do you write about collapse, from within in a collapsing world?
Why We’re Failing: We’re Not a Mechanism
The Link Between Soil Health and Water
I Believe The World Is Ending – Does That Make Me Crazy?
The Great Escape | Do the Math
The #1 Warning Sign Capital Controls Are Coming Soon and 3 Ways To Beat Them
Engineered Collapse of the Middle Class
The Great Game Reborn—Energy, Geopolitics, and the Reversal of the Liberal Order | Art Berman
Telling others about peak oil and limits to growth
State of emergency declared after blackout plunges most of Chile into darkness | CNN
Today’s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh CXCVIII–Beyond Peak Oil: Will Our Cities Collapse?
Today’s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh CXCVIII–Beyond Peak Oil: Will Our Cities Collapse?

For long-time readers of mine, you will know that I have emphasised repeatedly the importance of energy to human existence and its complex societies. It is the net surplus energy that we have been able to leverage that allows us to continue growing our material throughputs and keep alive our perception of ‘progress’–particularly via our various technological ‘innovations’–and continue to expand (seemingly without limits) our modern complex societies, especially their economies1.
Over the past two centuries in particular, it is the extraction and refinement of relatively easy-to-access and cheap-to-extract, energy-dense petroleum–what some refer to as our ‘master resource’–that has well and truly led to an explosion of trends that began when we first started gathering in large, complex settlements about 10,000-12,000 years ago.
Further, there’s a very good argument to be made that this extraction and use of hydrocarbons is one of the prime causes of a huge leap in our ecological overshoot predicament with its influence upon our various technologies–especially with regard to food production (that has helped to support exponential population growth), resource extraction, and industrialisation.

On the flipside, however, our use of petroleum-derived energy also drives a variety of negative impacts upon the planet and its ecosystems–something ‘growth’ advocates often ignore and/or rationalise away. (Here I would argue that this ‘purposeful’ overlooking of detrimental consequences is primarily to avoid the anxiety-provoking thoughts that arise when one sees these repercussions and recognises their potential for significant and possibly irreversible harm–better to deny these and go along with the majority that wish for a happy ending to this latest experiment in large, complex societies.)
The realisation that hydrocarbons are a finite resource and have seen the easiest-to-access and least-costly-to-procure reserves already extracted has led a number of people to contemplate a future without this fundamental energy resource2. And as with most things, the prognostications about an unknowable future span a wide spectrum of ideas from a return to a stone-age way of life that is ‘short and brutish’3 to a technological-based utopia in sync with the planet’s ecosystems and the limits that exist on a finite planet.

The issues that get ‘debated’ within the ‘Peak Oil-aware community’ are varied and not unlike those that emerge in any complex subject area. The following are only a handful of the subtopics that arise when discussions occur regarding this significantly important resource and our future, and are by no means complete and somewhat overlapping: net surplus energy; energy-return-on-energy-invested (EROEI); diminishing returns; peak timing; conventional vs. unconventional–i.e., types of oil; socioeconomics; sociopolitics; supply vs. demand; ecological impacts; scale required of resources/new technologies to ‘replace’ hydrocarbons’; and biogeophysical limits to continued growth.
I pivoted towards doing archaeological research commentary/summaries in the past year or so to explore what the numerous pre/historical experiments in complex societies tell us about societal ‘collapse’, but came across the article summarised below just as a somewhat contentious debate began to arise within the Peak Oil community regarding the timing of Peak Oil, and the potential reserves that exist and can be extracted by us in our quest to continue growing and supporting our complex, global-industrial societies.

So, I thought it would be interesting to also include summaries of some published articles on the topic of Peak Oil. Below is my first by Dr. Peter Newman that appeared in the Journal of Urban Technology (2007).
The focus of this paper is basically that ‘the right technology can solve the consequences of Peak Oil’. This conclusion is not surprising given the academic focus of the author and the audience that the journal publishes for–its focus is primarily upon sustaining economic growth via ‘smart’ planning and technology.
While there are suggestions made by the author that I fully agree with (such as advocating for localism), there are others that I do not (such as pushing for mass-produced, industrial technologies to counter oil vulnerability). I do not believe we should be pursuing these industrial-based products because there has been increasing evidence that the production of these devices are helping to push greater hydrocarbon demand/use and contributing to the increased broaching of important planetary boundaries as material throughputs grow accordingly. The believers in such technologies to ‘solve’ our various predicaments, however, refuse to acknowledge or rationalise away such evidence; arguing for the most part that there is no other option–mostly ignoring the perspective of those who advocate for a low-/no-tech future.
The question posed in the article title, as to whether cities will ‘collapse’ post-Peak Oil, is in my mind quite clear: they will. All of humanity’s previous experiments in complex societies have ended more or less the same way: a significant simplification (i.e., ‘collapse’). I see little reason or evidence that our globalised, industrialised complex societies will be any different and capable of staving off a return to a far less complex way of living. In fact, I would argue (and have done so repeatedly) that our ‘decline’ may be far more precipitous than in the past given the degree to which we have expanded and become, for the most part, very dependent upon a finite resource that has ‘allowed’ most of our species to lose the skills and knowledge to survive without it.

In fact, it may be that our complex societies are already in the process of ‘collapsing’ but this has been well hidden via narrative management and massive credit-/debt-expansion. Regardless, it is the realisation of this ‘dependency’ that has prompted a concern for some regarding our societal vulnerability to a waning of our master resource and a call for planning in response. The plans to confront oil vulnerability that are highlighted in the summarised article appear to be focussed upon sustaining what is increasingly looking to be unsustainable, being quite blind to a number of issues.
I sense a significant blindness in this article to some specific impacts of declining hydrocarbon availability that cannot be met–or, at least, not well met due to issues of scale–via ‘renewables’ or other innovative technology, but also to the ecological systems destruction wrought by our materials-intensive industries. Instead, we are exposed to an argument that more mass-produced, industrial products are the ‘solution’ to resource decline rather than a reconsideration of the ‘industrial technology as solution’ mythology.

Despite the rising evidence that these technological ‘solutions’ are anything but a panacea and actually exacerbating our predicaments, it is my feeling that they will continue to be pursued for a variety of reasons–not least of which are the profiteering motives that are associated with them and the general acceptance by the masses of the marketing narrative (i.e., greenwashing) that surrounds them.
My shorter summary notes of the article can be found below the following post and follow-up comment from a fellow ‘Peak Oiler’ as it is apropos to the above Contemplation. It is from Schuyler Hupp whose insightful commentary within the Peak Oil Facebook group we are both members of I have shared previously. I thank him for giving me permission to do so once again (with some very minor edits):

Energy analysts say that the life cycle of aggregate domestic tight oil production will likely be much shorter than that of conventional oil, which peaked in 1970… So if the peak in aggregate domestic production occurs within the next few decades as some predict, then it would raise a bunch of pretty obvious questions:
1) When will tight oil actually peak?
2) As tight oil goes into terminal decline, what alternative energy resources and technology paradigms will replace oil?
3) What will be the net energy return of those alternatives to oil?
4) Does anyone actually know how to manufacture and maintain those replacements without cheap and abundant fossil hydrocarbons?
5) How long might it take to rebuild the infrastructure of western civilization to accommodate whatever new energy paradigm happens to emerge?
6) If net energy and surplus energy are lower under the new paradigm, with lower economic output and less to go around as a result, how well will societies manage the paradigm shift?
7) If indeed a broader decline scenario ensues, how long might it take before a new social and economic equilibrium is to be reached?
8) How much of a risk is it to assume that technological developments will necessarily materialize, so as to make up for the loss of our most essential resource, the one on which our current civilization is largely based?
Of course oil isn’t the whole energy picture, and although energy has primacy when it comes to economic prosperity, there are other factors to consider such as the broader natural resource base and the health of ecological systems… There’s much food for thought.
PS
I forgot to mention… that chart is for domestic, U.S. production, though it’s implied by “Lower 48 States. There are a number of prominent voices predicting a peak in our tight oil production within the decade. The exact date for global aggregate oil production won’t be known until it’s further behind us, but current data suggests that we may have passed that point as far back as 10 years ago. When tight oil goes into decline it will be a real life lesson in biophysical economics that nobody signed up for; people will have no choice but to adapt.
So far as climate…the range of possibilities is broad, at least from what I’ve seen. When it comes to climate models, when you get to 100 years out, at least the dozen or so I’ve seen… the average surface temperature predictions vary by as much as 400%. It certainly could be that it’s game over for humans and a lot of other species… or it could be that it becomes an evolutionary bottleneck, subsistence to follow… or it could be that things suck, and maybe civilization crumbles, but things somehow continue at a much smaller scale and under a very different paradigm.
Even in the best scenario, I don’t think it would involve 8 billion people living sustainably, or anything close to it. The main takeaway from that oil production data is that economic decline in “developed” nations is at the doorstep. So for a generation or so, it will be a question of how people will adapt physically, psychologically, and socially… Mainly, how people resolve claims on limited resources.
Whatever happens over the longer term, climate wise, is something that will just happen when it happens and to the degree that it happens, regardless of the reality of peaking fossil hydrocarbons, though that certainly won’t hurt when it comes to the climate system. Given the shortcomings of human nature, cognitive and otherwise, there’s no reason to expect preemptive actions toward preventing climate change, certainly not at a broad scale… but people are still going to have to deal with the shorter term challenges with regard to resource limits and economic effects.
Summary Notes
Beyond Peak Oil: Will Our Cities Collapse?
Peter Newman
Journal of Urban Technology 14:2 (2007), pp. 15-30
Acknowledging the inevitable decline in the production of oil fields (and providing a brief introduction regarding the history of this realisation) and arguing that the exact date of Peak Oil is not as relevant as the recognition of it, human societies need to plan for this eventuality as time is running out to prepare adequately. There are four possible scenarios that need to be considered for this planning, especially for urban centres in advanced economies.
- Collapse–given pre/historical examples, this is a distinct possibility–especially for those cities that require massive amounts of oil to support their complexities (i.e., those in advanced economies);
- Ruralised Cities–a dispersal of urbanites out of the city into the countryside to establish permaculture villages and suburban agriculture is what some envision but is unlikely without a significant population decline as well as the adoption of far more sustainable lifestyles;
- Divided Cities–the creation of ‘electrified cores’ for the wealthy few while the remainder of the urban population is on the periphery fighting for survival;
- Resilient, Sustainable, Solar City–this is what we should be striving for, an electrified city for all residents.
Arguing that the threat of Peak Oil needs to be taken seriously, the author suggests that the United Nations must take the lead in setting goals for weaning economies off of oil with cities/states creating strategies to accomplish this. Some have begun to explore options, such as the prospects of a Hydrogen Economy.
Cities must plan for significantly reduced car use since they are the factor that most impacts urban vulnerability to oil decline. Public transport must be prioritised (e.g., electric rail lines and buses) as well as mixed land use and denser populations within urban cores and rural lands left for food production.
The impacts from declining oil supplies on agriculture will be significant and we need to halt the expansion of suburban residences onto arable lands. Establishing ‘Horticultural Precincts’ beside urban centres is recommended. Food production needs to become localised and surpluses pursued for trade purposes with nearby communities.
Localism needs to be pushed and innovation in it funded, especially of urban technologies.
A variety of regulations subsidise oil consumption and it is likely that regulations need to be developed to help reduce the use of internal combustion engine vehicles and increase that of hybrid transport. Massive investment in wind farms should occur. As there seems to be no alternatives to hydrocarbons for aviation, unnecessary travel should be reduced via increased pricing.
Advanced economies have virtually no plans for handling oil vulnerability. We need to adapt by using less and shifting our technology.
The more detailed summary notes can be found here.
What is going to be my standard WARNING/ADVICE going forward and that I have reiterated in various ways before this:
“Only time will tell how this all unfolds but there’s nothing wrong with preparing for the worst by ‘collapsing now to avoid the rush’ and pursuing self-sufficiency. By this I mean removing as many dependencies on the Matrix as is possible and making do, locally. And if one can do this without negative impacts upon our fragile ecosystems or do so while creating more resilient ecosystems, all the better.
Building community (maybe even just household) resilience to as high a level as possible seems prudent given the uncertainties of an unpredictable future. There’s no guarantee it will ensure ‘recovery’ after a significant societal stressor/shock but it should increase the probability of it and that, perhaps, is all we can ‘hope’ for from its pursuit.
Some recent and related articles of interest:
What Will Energy Dominance Be Used For? – by Arthur Berman
America’s War On Coal Power-Plants Is Over | ZeroHedge
The Double Bind of Collapse | how to save the world
Ecological Collapse Supersedes Financial Collapse
We Are the Stewards of Our Future – by Nate Hagens
On Human (Over)Population – by Andrea P
Shell’s Flawed Report: The 2025 Energy Security Scenarios
Supercharging the Predicaments We Face
The Renewable Houdini Act – PenguinEmpireReports
Nuclear Fusion Is Just More Bullshit
Solar Panels for Collapse, Are They Worth It? Here’s an Honest Answer.
Overshoot Deficit Disorder – George Tsakraklides
Averting Collapse Is No Longer Profitable
The world isn’t close to breaking free from coal — in some countries, demand for it is surging
Dr William Rees Our obsolescent brains The climate, economics and overshoot
Peak Oil. Food. Fascism. Collapse.
The Wider Boundary of Symptom Predicaments.
If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).
Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running).
If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing.
Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99
Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps…
https://paypal.me/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US
If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.
You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.
AND
Released September 30, 2024
It Bears Repeating: Best Of…Volume 2
A compilation of writers focused on the nexus of limits to growth, energy, and ecological overshoot.
With a Foreword by Erik Michaels and Afterword by Dr. Guy McPherson, authors include: Dr. Peter A Victor, George Tsakraklides, Charles Hugh Smith, Dr. Tony Povilitis, Jordan Perry, Matt Orsagh, Justin McAffee, Jack Lowe, The Honest Sorcerer, Fast Eddy, Will Falk, Dr. Ugo Bardi, and Steve Bull.
The document is not a guided narrative towards a singular or overarching message; except, perhaps, that we are in a predicament of our own making with a far more chaotic future ahead of us than most imagine–and most certainly than what mainstream media/politics would have us believe.
Click here to access the document as a PDF file, free to download.
Although much of the expansion of the past handful of decades can be greatly attributed to a gargantuan increase in debt-/credit-based currencies; including the growth of energy resources.
Note, however, that some still refuse to accept such finiteness and/or rationalise it away with assertions that a ‘free’ market will adjust to such biogeophysical realities introducing alternatives or humanity will simply colonise other planets and mine passing asteroids for our resource needs once we’ve exhausted our planet’s supplies.
I would remind readers here that this phrase is often used to describe life before ‘modernity’ and its various technologies but this is not what Thomas Hobbes was referring to when he used it. Hobbes was advocating for strong, central authority as a result of people living in a constant state of fear, lacking the necessities of life, and having to struggle to survive prior to its existence.
The Bulletin: February 13-19, 2025
The Bulletin: February 13-19, 2025

CLICK HERE
What Will Energy Dominance Be Used For? – by Arthur Berman
Thirsty For Solutions, Water Scarcity Grips Iraq
Humans will Not Go Gentle into That Good Night
The Double Bind of Collapse | how to save the world
Ecological Collapse Supersedes Financial Collapse
The Crisis Report – 101 – by Richard Crim
We Are the Stewards of Our Future – by Nate Hagens
On Human (Over)Population – by Andrea P
Shell’s Flawed Report: The 2025 Energy Security Scenarios
Earthconomics 101: There Is a Killer on the Loose – George Tsakraklides
The War for Mineral Non-Resources – by Ugo Bardi
Are We Doomed? – Biocentric with Max Wilbert
The Tug of War Between Forests and Oceans
The Psychology of Collapse: A Deep Dive in Human Misbehavior
From the Archives: The Epic Failure Of Modern Experts
The Shape of Things to Come – The Honest Sorcerer
Plant Once, Harvest Forever: 15 Perennial Veggies for Endless Abundance – Garden Beds
Humans Are The Only Animal That Willingly Destroys Their Own Home
How America will collapse (by 2025) | Salon.com
AMOC Collapse: The Looming Climate Catastrophe & Global Consequences
The West Faces Uranium Shortage Amid Competition From China and Russia
Money as an Agent of Death – George Tsakraklides
The Story You’ve Been Told About Recycling Is a Lie
Prepping isn’t just for preppers anymore—it’s time to get a go-bag | Popular Science
The Bulletin: February 6-12, 2025
The Bulletin: February 6-12, 2025
When efficiency becomes a problem: Jevons Paradox in the Age of AI – Conhecimento Hoje
Supercharging the Predicaments We Face
Please, be a NIMBY – by Elisabeth Robson
Nuclear Fusion Is Just More Bullshit
Solar Panels for Collapse, Are They Worth It? Here’s an Honest Answer.
Fiji Water Lawsuit Raises Concerns About Microplastics – Newsweek
Overshoot Deficit Disorder – George Tsakraklides
“Recycling” Makes Plastic Pollution Worse
The end of the dollar has already begun – Collapse Life
The Biggest, Most Corrupt News Organization You Have Never Heard of
Report: Apple Ordered to Provide Gov’t Access to ALL User Data on the Cloud | Headline USA
The Grocery Store Hack That Helps You Avoid Ultra-Processed Foods
The Collapse of the US Elite – by Ugo Bardi
The world isn’t close to breaking free from coal — in some countries, demand for it is surging
Danger of Deep Worldwide Recession in 2025 – Ed Dowd | Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog
Dr William Rees Our obsolescent brains The climate, economics and overshoot
The Daily: 10 February 2025 – By My Solitary Hearth
12 Simple Things That You Can Start Doing Right Now To Become More Independent Of The System
Earth’s water cycle is off balance for the first time in human history | Climate & Capitalism
Trump Says Talk Of Wanting Canada to Be A Part of US Is Serious | ZeroHedge
In Soviet Germany, the government protests YOU
If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).
Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running).
If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing.
Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99
Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps…
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If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.
You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.
The Bulletin: January 30-February 5, 2024
The Bulletin: January 30-February 5, 2024
Trump’s Bold Energy Gamble: It’s Not What You Think | Art Berman
The Geopolitics of Climate Change || Peter Zeihan
The longest 10 minutes of your life have just begun – George Tsakraklides
The Dangers of Propaganda, Language Manipulation, and Thought Crimes
They Don’t Just Tell Us What To Think, They Train Us HOW To Think
Megadroughts are on the rise worldwide
Finally, an answer to why Earth’s oceans have been on a record hot streak | Grist
AMERICAN EMPIRE (Part Two): Holy War – by David Haggith
The Sweet Spot Between Doomscrolling and Hopium Smoking
Tom Cotton Admits The US Doesn’t Actually Care About Spreading Democracy
Surprising science — There’s no such thing as clean energy?
Trump Claims “We Have All the Oil We Need” True or False? – MishTalk
#298: Energy, not money – the sequence unfolds | Surplus Energy Economics
Lots of Solutions, But for Which Problems?
Peak Oil: Requiem for a Failed Paradigm | Art Berman
Our Project Is Self-Contradictory
Towards a WW III Scenario. The Privatization of Nuclear War. Michel Chossudovsky – Global Research
Ukraine Open To Trump Demand To Exchange Rare Earth Elements For Arms | ZeroHedge
EU AI Act Effectively Legalizes Biometric Mass Surveillance
From the Archives: This Is What Inflation Does To Our Kids
Trump Goes All-In On Stealing Gaza For His Zionist Owners
Always Adding More: The Unpopular Reality about Energy Transitions
Today’s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh CXCVII–‘Renewable’ Energy: See, Hear, and Speak No Evil, Part 3
Today’s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh CXCVII–‘Renewable’ Energy: See, Hear, and Speak No Evil, Part 3

In attempting to bolster the mass rollout of supposed ‘clean/green/sustainable’ ‘renewable’ energy technologies (and the necessary ‘investments’, particularly in terms of finite resources–especially energy), the marketers of these industrial products and their enthusiastic supporters have created and pushed a narrative/mythos surrounding them whereby the technologies are perceived as primarily environmentally-friendly but also capable of replacing our master resource: hydrocarbons. An increasing number of people have referred to this approach as ‘greenwashing’, a deceptive marketing strategy to persuade everyone that the technologies are legitimate and their production/use is environmentally-responsible.
As the chorus of critics of these industrial-based technologies has grown and increasingly exposed the erroneousness of their supporter’s assertions regarding the environmental ‘friendliness’ of their production, the cheerleaders have expanded the story surrounding these technologies to include their ability to address in a beneficial manner a variety of other issues humanity confronts: war, security, and prosperity.
My 3-part Contemplation attempts to demonstrate the falseness of these claims; or, at least, that the perspective that renewables are only of benefit is quite narrow and ignores/rationalises away some inconvenient realities. In Part 1 (see Website, Medium, Substack) I address two of the assertions made by those seeking to convince us to support mass production and distribution of these technologies: wars are not created as a result of them, and they do not pollute. In Part 2 (see Website, Medium, Substack) I look at the claim that their use results in greater ‘security’.
As I read the evidence, these assertions not only ‘overlook’ some uncomfortable negative consequences of our pursuit of ‘renewables’ but state the exact opposite of reality. The increasing and monumental ‘investments’ called for by ‘renewables’ supporters actually result in greater geopolitical competition (including war) over finite resources (including hydrocarbons) and significantly increases pollution of our planet–particularly due to the extractive and industrial processes required for their production.
In this post I will consider the claim that the use of ‘renewables’ is quite beneficial due to the jobs and wealth that are generated.

Jobs and Wealth are generated
As with any expansion of industrial production, jobs are created and wealth can indeed be generated. There is little to no debate regarding this observation. And there has been exponential growth in the production of ‘renewables’ experienced over the past several decades. So, yes, wealth is generated and jobs are created via the production of ‘renewables.’

There are several aspects of this growth that must be kept in mind while considering whether this and a massive scaling up of these products is actually ‘beneficial’ to humanity and our planet or not.
From a relatively narrow ‘economic/financial’ point of view, especially as it pertains to individuals and families that depend upon employment income to ‘survive’, growing employment opportunities are fantastic. And for the local to national (even global) economists and politicians that signal their ‘success’ via indicators such as gross domestic product (GDP) and employment statistics, any economic growth is a benefit and must be pursued!
Such wealth ‘creation’ is particularly a motivating factor for the industrialists and ruling elite, who not only push persistently the pursuit of the infinite growth chalice but who have experienced a significant burgeoning of their personal/family wealth over the past few decades. So much so that they are leaving the masses well in the dust in terms of ‘income’, especially in the United States and China where close to half of the world’s wealth is concentrated (see graphic above). Coincidence? I think not.
Leaving aside the significant growth in inequality between the uber-wealthy and the hoi polloi that has accompanied global wealth production, the mythology that has been created surrounding the economic growth imperative is powerful. In fact, it may be one of, if not the most powerful to hold sway in our modern world zeitgeist. Within that worldview such growth is primarily perceived as only of benefit with economic contraction being seen as the most significant thing we must avoid at all costs.
Those ‘costs’, however, tend to be at the expense of the health of our planet’s ecosystems–among other negative aspects (especially socioeconomic disparity) that get left unsaid or rationalised away by our world ‘leaders’ when discussing the growth imperative and/or marketing their latest ‘solely beneficial’ policies. The graphic above shows the almost perfect correlation between the global material footprint (i.e., raw material extraction) and GDP. If one defines wealth generation via GDP, then it would appear that any increase in this metric coincides almost precisely with resource extraction–one of perhaps the most ecologically-destructive activities our species carries out.
Here I must ask critically: Is this really what we want for a species seemingly already well into ecological overshoot (due primarily to our expansion and its material-based requirements) and a planet experiencing the negative consequences of this overshoot, especially a loss of biosphere integrity, changes in freshwater, novel entity dispersal, etc.? When money/wealth–which are potential claims on future resources and their extraction, especially energy–is ‘created’, there is also created more resource extraction, refinement, and industrial production of some nature. More wealth = more ecosystem destruction. (see graphic above showing the material footprint relationship with GDP)

While wealth generation (especially through job creation) appeals greatly to the masses who hold out hope of achieving financial ‘prosperity’ through gainful employment, the illusory narrative about ever-greater prosperity for all seems to me to be mostly about sustaining the unsustainable and ensuring continued exploitation of our planet and continuing ecosystem destruction–and mostly for the benefit of those at the top of our power and wealth structures given that wealth tends to accrue extremely unevenly towards that class of our rather hierarchical complex societies.
So, the creation of evermore ‘wealth’ (via additional units of currency) added to our economies becomes ever-increasing potential claims on future energy and other finite resources (with their extraction and refinement requiring significantly ecologically-destructive processes). How is this in any way, shape, or form ‘beneficial’ except, and particularly for, the ruling elite who own and control the industries and resource lands that are supposedly generating ‘wealth’?
This is a troubling narrative for ‘renewables’ cheerleaders in the sense that the primary motivation given for transitioning to ‘renewables’ has been and continues to be one of reducing the negative consequences on the planet’s ecosystems of hydrocarbon use–especially the greenhouse gas emissions, particularly carbon.
But as I have argued and is perhaps the most obvious misinformed assertion, the continued and/or expanded pursuit of ‘renewables’ actually exacerbates the negative impacts on ecosystems due primarily to the extractive and industrial industries required for their production. How is this not recognised by those arguing in favour of the mass production of these industrial technologies?
In addition, I and others have tried to point out that the production of ‘renewables’ has been additive to our energy mix and serves to exacerbate our overshoot predicament. While the ‘renewables’ advocates often highlight the growing share of electrical-energy production these mass-produced industrial products provide, they leave out of any calculation the growth in electrical generation via hydrocarbons (especially coal)–particularly in those nations where much of the globe’s industrial production is carried out.
For example, in a recent post in the Facebook Group Peak Oil–Twilight of the Oil Age, a member highlighted a CarbonBrief article that focuses upon the plateauing of CO2 emissions in China and suggests that this ‘pause’ is directly due to the mass roll-out of ‘renewables’. Several members of the group challenged this interpretation, suggesting instead that it indicates an economic slowdown and has not been the result of ‘renewables’ being mass produced and adopted. What I pointed out was the additive nature of these technologies to China’s electrical energy production and that while China has been increasing their ‘renewables’, they have also been increasing their hydrocarbon-based electricity generation–reaching record levels (see graphic below).
And while China may indeed be experiencing an exponential increase in ‘renewables’ compared to hydrocarbon use, this is not unusual when a technology is in its infancy. The rate of growth is almost always larger when the base numbers are small. The point, however, remains: ‘renewables’ are adding to China’s energy mix and replacing little if any of that provided by hydrocarbons. This is true also for the world as a whole: ‘renewables’ are adding to the energy production and use by our species.

As for expanding or maintaining our financial and economic systems as constructed, these are among the most-impactful human systems that contribute to our continuing degradation of our planet and its ecosystems.
While the economic argument appeals to many (most?) and is often used by those pushing any number of agendas (especially the pursuit of the infinite growth chalice via economic expansion), it is probably the exact opposite of the trajectory our species needs to follow if we wish to focus upon long-term sustainability (or, at least attempt to mitigate somewhat the fallout of ecological overshoot). Degrowing these systems and the extractive and industrial processes they rest upon should be our primary ideology, not expanding them.
With ‘wealth’ (in the form of currency/money) being a potential claim on future resources (especially energy), the expansion of ‘renewables’ being called for necessitates destructive extraction processes to continue and grow substantially. Is this not paradoxical to the supposed reason for pursuing ‘renewables’? Are we having to destroy the planet to save it?
In the mind of many ‘renewables’ supporters it seems this paradox is ignored or rationalised away. They maintain such destruction is a ‘one-off’ or not anywhere near the negative impacts that hydrocarbons bring to the table (again, ignoring the hydrocarbon inputs into ‘renewables’).
Where is the alternative of halting our pursuit of the perpetual growth chalice or even reversing it via degrowth? It would seem to me that even the discussion of halting growth is mostly verboten in the public sphere except amongst a somewhat marginalised minority–who are often vilified by the perpetual-growth believers. The myth of infinite growth on a finite planet is not only alive and well but vociferously protected by its gatekeepers and adherents. The force shall not be disturbed.

These are not the droids you’re looking for…
As I stated to one of the ‘renewables’ advocates–whom I’ve had ongoing disagreement with over this issue–when I shared the arguments made by those who disagree with their positive assessment of ‘renewables’ (and who countered that all of the critics are obsolete thinkers, haven’t updated their knowledge, have not taken account of new data, and are simply old dogs who can’t learn new tricks): it could be that “the evidence points to a very different conclusion for those scientists/researchers. One of the perhaps most important learnings of my extended post-secondary education was that even the exact same observable ‘facts’ can be interpreted in very different ways; sometimes ways that are diametrically opposed.”1
We all believe what we want to believe, regardless of ‘facts’. For die-hard ‘renewables’ cheerleaders, the negative aspects will mostly be denied/ignored/rationalised away–a response entirely encouraged by the marketers of these technologies. They cannot see (for reasons perhaps of cognitive-dissonance reduction) that these industrial products carry with them exceedingly non-beneficial consequences. They accept, usually without question, the ‘solely beneficial’ assertions made by the products’ manufacturers and the echo chamber of supporters.
One of the aspects that gets lost in this mythos, unfortunately, is the larger issue of societal sustainability–or should I say unsustainability and the evidence suggesting that by pursuing these industrial technologies we are adding fuel to the fire and exacerbating the fundamental predicament of ecological overshoot, making any possible and marginal mitigations all the less likely to be helpful for our species (or any and all non-human ones and the ecosystems humans depend upon for their very existence).

And this is especially true for analyses that focus on singular and/or narrow aspects such as carbon emissions or energy-return-on-energy-invested (EROEI); the latter of which can be useful (if agreement can be had over how to calculate/measure it) in evaluating energy ‘costs’ but tend to ignore completely the environmental/ecological and/or societal ‘costs’. Just because something may appear to be capable of supporting the energy ‘needs’ of industrial society (at least for a relatively short-term duration), does not mean its use is ecologically justifiable. A societal-supporting energy source can (and probably does) carry great ecologically-destructive ‘costs’ with it but is left out of an EROEI calculation.
When I raise such issues as the environmental costs of ‘renewables’, the tendency of advocates has been to either ignore my concern completely or simply rebut that the costs of hydrocarbons are much worse, and we need to reduce carbon emissions regardless of all other ‘costs’.
Without getting deeply into the carbon tunnel vision such rebuttals raise, ignoring all the other negative aspects of ‘renewables’ is highly dangerous in my opinion.

Such responses, however, are not surprising given another argument that is often made by those supporting the widespread use and distribution of ‘renewables’: we need to do something! And that ‘something’ is almost invariably more technology. But maybe we shouldn’t be attempting to sustain the unsustainable via industrial products. Maybe the only thing we need to be doing is deconstructing complex societies, not chasing the (impossible) dream of techno-utopia.
I find the entire narrative surrounding the ‘electrify everything’ mantra faulty–from top to bottom. From the energy-harvesting technologies to the products that would be powered by the stored power. None of it is ‘green/clean’ nor ‘sustainable’. Such claims are little more than marketing propaganda that has been turned into a mythology that cannot be questioned nor criticised.
Mythologies arise to try and help humans explain observed phenomena, and other complex societal issues in a relatively simplistic fashion. Those that meet this need (and especially if they appeal to broader wants/wishes/desires) tend to propagate through a society and become somewhat entrenched, oftentimes providing moral guidance.
It is difficult if not impossible to dethrone mythologies that have become rooted in a society, especially if they tend to alleviate powerful, anxiety-provoking thoughts–such as our complex societies are not sustainable and are actually destroying the ecosystems that we ultimately depend upon for our existence.
Creating a mythology about a product is one of many marketing strategies that seek to resonate with consumers and produce ‘brand’ loyalty. That ‘renewables’ are ‘clean’, ‘green’, and/or ‘sustainable’ are amongst the myths marketers have focused upon to sell their product. It resonates with consumers who recognise/acknowledge the impacts human society has upon our environment and allows them to reduce any cognitive dissonance that may arise. And for the majority that accept the narrative, it creates a sense of shared belief and identity: we, the ‘renewables’ advocates, care deeply about our world and support this industrial product as a ‘solution’ to human destructiveness–and those who challenge our mythos are part of an uncaring ‘other’ who must be silenced.
The myths that have arisen with regard to an energy ‘transition’ are another in a long line of stories told to soothe the savage beast that is Homo sapiens. In this vein, it is successful for the most part: there are a large number of people that believe the claims made about ‘renewables’ without question. But as with the many mythologies that exist and have preceded this one, when one digs below the surface claims the narrative is simple, inaccurate, and misleads.
Want to purchase an electric vehicle or put solar panels up on your property? By all means, do so but please don’t tell me, others, or yourself that you are doing it for any of the so-called ‘benefits’ that cheerleaders of these industrial products go on about–especially their marketers. That’s simply disingenuous.
‘Renewables’ are no ‘solution’ to our various predicaments. The idea that they are is part of a grand lie. A lie that ignores/denies/rationalises away all the glaring negative aspects that accompany them. The lie is readily accepted since it aids the story-telling apes who strive to avoid/reduce significant anxiety-provoking thoughts but it also adds to the height of the cliff directly ahead that our species is running full-steam towards, with the ‘leaders’ (who are actually at the back of the pack but projecting an air of ‘stewardship’ and ‘guidance’) urging on the masses…

As I did with Part 1, I will close with a passage from Charles Hugh Smith in a recent post on the various mythologies our societies hold with respect to technology, political institutions, and financial markets and their ‘ability’ to ‘solve’ all ‘problems’:
“We know we’ve entered the realm of mythologies when expressing doubts about the efficacy of tech, the market or the state unleashes an infuriated indignation that the gods of tech, the market and the state are being questioned, even as the proof of their powers are everywhere.
But once we’re embedded in a mythological structure, then we see play-acting as a legitimate solution.
Here is the real-world situation, stripped of mythology and play-acting: the majority of the core problems are either made worse by tech, the market and the state–Anit-Progress writ large–or they’re beyond the reach of these conventional tools.

This Venn diagram causes howls of protest and shrieks of agony: how dare you! Of course there are tech solutions, market solutions and government solutions to every problem under the sun. What else is there?
To state this out loud is deeply offensive, for we’ve been trained to worship at the altars of technology, the market and the state. It’s considered good sport to deride the limits of state solutions, but it’s anathema to question the limits of technology or the market.”
Recent Articles of Interest
Nevada’s Joshua Trees Bulldozed In Mesquite; Solar Company Defends Solar Farm
This Poet and Tribal Attorney is Being Sued by a Mining Company
Nickel Mines Threaten Indonesia Nomadic Tribes and Forests
Devil’s in the Machine–Driving Electric Car Fake Environmentalism
A Reality Check On Our Energy Transition
Europe: The Fall of the Holy Renewable Empire
‘Green’ Scottish Ferry Emits Far More CO2 Than Old Diesel Ship
Rare Earth Mining In Myanmar’s Chipwi Region Causes Socioeconomic Decline and Environmental Damage
Desert Tortoises Endangered by Approval of Rough Hat Clark Solar Project
Greenland’s Melting Ice Is Clearing the Way For a Mineral Gold Rush
Questioning lithium-ion batteries, fire risks & hydrating dry regions
When Renewables Meet Their Limits to Growth
What is going to be my standard WARNING/ADVICE going forward and that I have reiterated in various ways before this:
“Only time will tell how this all unfolds but there’s nothing wrong with preparing for the worst by ‘collapsing now to avoid the rush’ and pursuing self-sufficiency. By this I mean removing as many dependencies on the Matrix as is possible and making do, locally. And if one can do this without negative impacts upon our fragile ecosystems or do so while creating more resilient ecosystems, all the better.
Building community (maybe even just household) resilience to as high a level as possible seems prudent given the uncertainties of an unpredictable future. There’s no guarantee it will ensure ‘recovery’ after a significant societal stressor/shock but it should increase the probability of it and that, perhaps, is all we can ‘hope’ for from its pursuit.
If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).
Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running).
If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing.
Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99
Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps…
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If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.
You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.
AND
Released September 30, 2024
It Bears Repeating: Best Of…Volume 2
A compilation of writers focused on the nexus of limits to growth, energy, and ecological overshoot.
With a Foreword by Erik Michaels and Afterword by Dr. Guy McPherson, authors include: Dr. Peter A Victor, George Tsakraklides, Charles Hugh Smith, Dr. Tony Povilitis, Jordan Perry, Matt Orsagh, Justin McAffee, Jack Lowe, The Honest Sorcerer, Fast Eddy, Will Falk, Dr. Ugo Bardi, and Steve Bull.
The document is not a guided narrative towards a singular or overarching message; except, perhaps, that we are in a predicament of our own making with a far more chaotic future ahead of us than most imagine–and most certainly than what mainstream media/politics would have us believe.
Click here to access the document as a PDF file, free to download.
I came to this observation after several years of interest in and extensive reading about hominid evolution, especially the physical markers that appear in skeletal remains. The exact same physical attribute was often perceived by different researchers in very different ways that resulted in very different interpretations as to the importance and meaning of the identified characteristic. And then there was the presentation by the university’s psychology department on human intelligence I sat in on where the guest professor began the gathering by asking the participants to consider that if one asks 100 psychologists the meaning of intelligence, you will likely get more than 100 different responses with each highlighting different aspects and resulting in different conclusions even using the same data. The point being that we see and interpret the world in a variety of ways that can sometimes be quite different from each other.
The Bulletin: January 23-29, 2025
The Bulletin: January 23-29, 2025
Collapse or Extinction: The Unholy Double Bind of the 21st Century
US Will Likely Stop Buying Oil From Venezuela: Trump | The Epoch Times
The End of the Regenerative Illusion?
Germany’s Outgoing Economy Minister Warns Europe Not to Over-Rely on US Energy | The Epoch Times
Modern Civilization is Proving to be a Very Fragile Thing
Canada Can’t Afford To Play Trade Chicken With the US
Do Money Supply, Deficit And QE Create Inflation? – RIA
Deforestation and world population sustainability: a quantitative analysis | Scientific Reports
Storm Éowyn: man killed and 725,000 properties without power in Ireland
Misled Climate CO2 Fanatics – Green Energy Is a Road to Nowhere – Global Research
Medical Journal Article Criticises Corrupt Medical Journals
Visualizing Europe’s Dependence On Chinese Resources | ZeroHedge
Gazprom In Turmoil, Forced To Hike Prices On Russians In Middle Of Winter | ZeroHedge
Warming, cooling, or we don’t know?
Homo Sapiens Are Working Overtime to Join ‘The Great Silence’ | Collapse of Industrial Civilization
Where We’ve Been, Where We’re Going
When Renewables Meet Their Limits to Growth
Letter From a Young Canadian: Authoritarianism, Media Propaganda and Repression
World Economic Forum Panel Praises EU Censorship Law
Green Deception: Environmental Activists Serve China’s Energy Agenda | RealClearDefense
Climate change is disrupting food systems across Latin America, UN report says | CNN
‘Last Ice Area’ in the Arctic could disappear much sooner than previously thought
“Landman” vs. the Environmentalists | Mises Institute
2025: On the Brink of the Biggest Oil Shock in History – International Man
The Uncertain Future of Oil: Energy Poverty, Depletion, and ‘Green’ Ambitions
Today’s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh CXCVI–‘Renewable’ Energy: See, Hear, and Speak No Evil, Part 2
Today’s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh CXCVI–‘Renewable’ Energy: See, Hear, and Speak No Evil, Part 2

In Part 1 of this now three-part Contemplation (see Website, Medium, Substack) I introduced some of the claims made by ‘renewables’ cheerleaders. These include the two I attempted to unmask as false in the initial post: wars are not created as a result of them, and they do not pollute.
As I read the evidence, these assertions not only hide/ignore/rationalise away some uncomfortable negative consequences of our pursuit of ‘renewables’ but state the exact opposite of reality. The increasing and monumental ‘investments’ called for by ‘renewables’ supporters actually result in greater geopolitical competition (including war) over finite resources (including hydrocarbons) and significantly increases pollution of our planet–particularly due to the extractive and industrial processes required for their production.
Two additional assertions made by ‘renewables’ advocates need to be addressed: through their use security is improved; and, jobs are created through their production and thereby greater wealth is generated.
In this post I will deconstruct the claim that security is improved through the use of ‘renewables’.
Security is improved
The claim that security is improved with the use of ‘renewables’ hinges on several arguments. Among them is that energy sources are diversified (thereby making the power grid more resilient) and dependence upon imports is reduced.
I will first focus upon the claim that “import dependence is reduced” and thus improves national ‘security’ through increased independence.
Again, as with all the other claims, this one depends mostly upon one’s perspective and could be argued to be accurate (if you can ignore some inconvenient facts) but only after the first generation of ‘renewables’ have been produced and distributed–leaving unsaid, of course, what occurs after the limited lifespan of this first generation of ‘renewables’ reaches its end.
Our globalised markets are greatly intertwined and co-dependent. While there has been a great clamour by some politicians to bring all industry back to their own nations–and some limited amount of this has occurred–this not only can take years/decades to accomplish but the more daunting reality is that many nations do not have the local/domestic materials/minerals to be able to carry this relocalisation dream out completely independent of others. A reindustrialisation of nations would still depend very significantly upon the importation of materials/minerals not present or economically-feasible to extract and/or refine within a country’s own borders.
There are few widely-scaled and industrial-based products that draw their materials and/or component parts from solely national, let alone local, sources. They depend upon sourcing such materials and parts from across the globe, some within their own national borders but very many not and must be imported (see graphic below that shows the growth rate in exports/imports–all have grown and are expected to continue to grow).
One cannot wave a magic wand and make rare minerals or other required resources appear in one’s backyard, or make the refining of such minerals/material economically-viable within their nation. For example, almost all US oil refining is geared towards heavy, sour crude oil that it mostly imports from Canada, Mexico, and the Persian Gulf region; and the light, sweet oil that is increasingly dominating US extraction must be shipped elsewhere to be refined–primarily to Canada, Mexico, and Europe.
Focussing for the moment just upon solar photovoltaic energy, close to 95% of the world’s panels are manufactured by China (78%) and a number of nearby Asia-Pacific nations (15.3%). There are a number of reasons for this but it primarily rests upon the economic aspects that make it far more profitable to produce panels in China and nearby regions. For example, China has far more lax environmental protection laws so that the ecologically-destructive industrial processes necessary to produce panels are less expensive, and remuneration for workers is far less than that in so-called ‘advanced’ economies.
Looking at the materials/minerals required for solar panels, China also significantly dominates the source locations for the extraction and the refining of these, including: silicon, indium, tellurium, gallium, copper, and zinc. This is not to suggest other nations do not extract and refine these, but not to the extent China currently does. And without decimating environmental regulations, greatly reducing remuneration, and/or investing significantly in necessary infrastructure in those other nations that may hold some significant quantities of reserves, the far less expensive Chinese sources will continue to dominate the global market–at least for the foreseeable future; this may change down the road but it is not what currently takes place.

And then there are the hydrocarbon inputs that are required to extract, refine, and distribute the necessary minerals and materials–to say little about such inputs into the manufacturing of the panels (see Part 1). Hydrocarbon imports are important for almost all nations, either because they have no domestic resources and/or no refining capacity. Even some of the largest oil ‘producers’ still require imports if their resources (e.g., light shale oil) do not match their needs (e.g., fuel oil, diesel) as highlighted above.
To claim that the use of ‘renewables’ decreases dependency upon imports is completely inconsistent with reality. (NOTE: the off-shoring of the ecologically-destructive and polluting processes to produce panels also contributes to the mythos in most (all?) so-called ‘advanced’ economies that ‘renewables’ are ‘clean/green’.)
Now, one could argue that once the initial importing of panels via the global market is accomplished the goal of independence is achieved. Perhaps. What happens, however, when the first generation of these products reaches the end of their lifespan?

Recycling the products in some form of a ‘regenerative/circular’ cycle is put forward as the ‘solution’ to this. What is left out of this suggestion are two major roadblocks. First, some components are extremely difficult if not impossible to recycle due to their manufacturing processes–for example, in solar panels: silicon wafers, polymer layers, thin-film materials; in wind turbines: the massive blades composed of fiberglass or carbon fiber reinforced with resin. Second, recycling is extremely energy-intensive, results in significant pollutants/toxins, and the thermodynamic law of entropy assures loss of material/minerals with each and every generation of recycling. Recycling is no ‘solution’.
So, there is not only a need to scale-up significantly the production of ‘renewables’ to achieve the ‘clean’ energy utopia, but to scale-up massively the recycling and, in fact, to figure out how to recycle all the components–as most components have yet to be recyclable (or economically so). Unfortunately, the majority of ‘renewables’ end up in landfills. This is the reality of ‘clean/green renewables’.

It is nonsensical to argue at this time that the adoption of ‘renewables’ decreases greatly/eliminates dependence upon imports. In fact, the opposite is quite true given the scaling up being discussed by ‘renewables’ advocates. Massive hydrocarbon and mineral inputs are required and mostly come from other nations via imports.
That energy sources are diversified by their use seems undebatable. The greater the number of energy sources employed, the greater the diversification. Yes, adding ‘renewables’ to the world’s other energy sources has created an increasing variety of sources, but not in the replacement fashion many hope for–’renewables’ have been additive to the globe’s energy consumption.

But does having diversified energy sources feeding into a society’s power grid improve security of the system in terms of resilience?
As with most things there are pros and cons to such diversification. Let me focus on the cons as they tend to be left unsaid by ‘renewables’ cheerleaders.
First, adding these additional technologies increases the system’s complexity along with its fragility. Systems that become more complex also become more fragile due to introduced vulnerabilities that include the need for increased maintenance and management, increased reliance upon computer systems, increased ‘costs’, and increased integration of various subsystems that can lead to cascading failures when a problem occurs–the blackout of 2003 that impacted more than 55 million users in northeast North America is a prime example, where it was determined a software ‘bug’ failed to alert operators of a need to redistribute power load when lines in Ohio came into contact with nearby foliage; the resulting power surge spread and caused the shutdown of 508 generating units at 265 power plants, and a subsequent loss of power load of about 80% that took several days to rectify1.

Second, the issue of intermittency is significant to any discussion of grid resilience since it is vital that the power load on any electrical network must be balanced immediately with the supply being generated–damage to systems can occur (and lead to cascading failure) if load and supply are not matched precisely.
Wind and solar photovoltaic in particular are intermittent in their harvesting of energy. This intermittency requires a back-up system to provide a constant flow of energy as demanded by our various electrical energy-dependent complexities. The alternative, on-demand systems are mostly hydrocarbon-based, with a handful of massive energy-storage systems (usually battery), that can be called upon at a moment’s notice.
It should be noted that these back-up systems also carry with them further ecological destruction due to the extractive nature of their production. But such systems are integral to ‘renewables’; you cannot have one without the other. And the integration of these subsystems increase the complexity and fragility of the larger electrical power system as discussed above.
Adding complexity to a system, particularly one that is electronic in nature, introduces more and more vulnerabilities and a risk of cascading failures. So, rather than increasing security it would seem that security is decreased with the introduction of diversified energy sources that require complex interconnectivity and management.
And then there’s the level of national/state security and the whole conundrum of resource scarcity, competition over these, and the wars that can and often do result (see Part 1). Such competition over finite resources does the opposite of ensuring security and exposes entire nations to increased insecurity–with the political responses to such issues being to ramp up ‘investments’ in national militaries and associated armament stockpiles furthering resource scarcity due to their monumental ‘costs’ in terms of mineral/material needs (including many that are also necessary for ‘renewables’).
Once again, the reality seems to be the opposite of the supposed beneficial claim: security is not increased due to the pursuit of ‘renewables’ but is actually decreased.
In Part 3 I will discuss the final claim made by ‘renewables’ advocates: jobs are created through their production and thereby greater wealth is generated.
What is going to be my standard WARNING/ADVICE going forward and that I have reiterated in various ways before this:
“Only time will tell how this all unfolds but there’s nothing wrong with preparing for the worst by ‘collapsing now to avoid the rush’ and pursuing self-sufficiency. By this I mean removing as many dependencies on the Matrix as is possible and making do, locally. And if one can do this without negative impacts upon our fragile ecosystems or do so while creating more resilient ecosystems, all the better.
Building community (maybe even just household) resilience to as high a level as possible seems prudent given the uncertainties of an unpredictable future. There’s no guarantee it will ensure ‘recovery’ after a significant societal stressor/shock but it should increase the probability of it and that, perhaps, is all we can ‘hope’ for from its pursuit.
If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).
Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running).
If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing.
Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99
Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps…
https://paypal.me/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US
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You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.
AND
Released September 30, 2024
It Bears Repeating: Best Of…Volume 2
A compilation of writers focused on the nexus of limits to growth, energy, and ecological overshoot.
With a Foreword by Erik Michaels and Afterword by Dr. Guy McPherson, authors include: Dr. Peter A Victor, George Tsakraklides, Charles Hugh Smith, Dr. Tony Povilitis, Jordan Perry, Matt Orsagh, Justin McAffee, Jack Lowe, The Honest Sorcerer, Fast Eddy, Will Falk, Dr. Ugo Bardi, and Steve Bull.
The document is not a guided narrative towards a singular or overarching message; except, perhaps, that we are in a predicament of our own making with a far more chaotic future ahead of us than most imagine–and most certainly than what mainstream media/politics would have us believe.
Click here to access the document as a PDF file, free to download.
I recall with precision the moment the power grid went down at our home. I was working on a table saw in our garage when it suddenly stopped. Having borrowed my brother-in-law’s saw (as mine had ‘died’ the day before while I was working on a home project), I feared I had just done something to cause the borrowed saw to cease operation. I checked the cord of the saw and then our house fuse box. For a few moments I believed that I had caused the outage for our home. It wasn’t for some time that it became apparent that there was something broader afoot…I still tell people the blackout was all my fault.