Today’s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh CCI–
Peak Oil, Economic Growth, and Wildlife Conservation: Envisioning An Alternative Future
Pompeii, Italy (1992). Photo by author.
Following on the heels of my Contemplation that looked at a Peak Oil article that focused upon whether our cities would ‘collapse’ or not as a result of waning hydrocarbons (see: Website; Medium; Substack), I offer a summary and some thoughts regarding the final chapter of the book Peak Oil, Economic Growth, and Wildlife Conversation that forwards the prospects for an alternative future to a ‘collapsing’ one.
The book itself offers a variety of perspectives written by an assortment of academics and other experts on subjects that overlap with energy, economics, and ecology. Below is the Table of Contents from this monograph.
While I only read the final chapter, there seemed to be some conflicting messages within its body: a recognition of our predicaments but the proposal of ‘solutions’ that tend to prolong or exacerbate the mechanisms mostly responsible for our dilemma.
First, on the one hand the editors argue that ‘renewables’ cannot possibly support industrial civilisation, their production consists of ecologically-destructive processes, and the scale of industrial manufacturing being called for by many would result in devastating and significant detrimental environmental impacts. On the other hand, they suggest that we should pursue these technologies to help us with the impending consequences of Peak Oil and climate change.
Another example of such conflicting messaging is the argument that ‘advanced’ economies need to reduce their consumption dramatically but that material throughputs should continue in order for ‘emerging’ economies to grow theirs. This is one of the suggestions that I have heard from a number of people within the ‘environmental’ movement and have some difficulty with.
Is shifting economic growth from advanced economies to emerging ones going to dramatically reduce material throughputs and all the deleterious impacts such activity has on our planet and its ecosystems?
It seems increasingly obvious that advanced economies need to throttle back their consumption dramatically if we are to hope for a reduction in the destruction that has accompanied economic growth systems, but I am not in agreement with the suggestion that this should be shifted towards emerging economies in an attempt to bolster their growth–and consequently their dependence upon modernity’s extractive and destructive industrial systems. Given how far we seem to be into ecological overshoot and the fact that continued material throughput exacerbates that situation, attempts to grow economies anywhere is problematic (and certainly not ‘sustainable’).
In fact, in their discussion on economic growth the authors raise the unsustainability of its pursuit. So, why would we encourage it anywhere? This problematic aspect of complex societies’ chasing of perpetual growth should be obvious to anyone who appreciates the finiteness of resources within the closed system that is our planet.
Unfortunately, many do not see this impediment to continuing growth. I believe this is thanks mostly to the stories that have been created to rationalise it–particularly the tales about human ingenuity and associated technological innovation’s ability to ‘bypass’ the restrictions that the finiteness of resources creates. It is here I would recommend viewing the presentation by the late Dr. Albert Bartlett, entitled Arithmetic, Population, and Energy, that demonstrates how quickly exponential growth can overwhelm a system.
The tendency of many to deny the issues raised in their book and place their faith in technological ‘breakthroughs’ is also discussed. What I believe most of the tech-faithful don’t realise is that the vast majority of such ‘breakthroughs’ never materialise and tend to be marketing/hype to attract investment in the project being highlighted–either directly or by way of government. But ‘success’ in controlled lab settings or with small-scale trials rarely if ever can be scaled up to meet civilisational needs–if such ‘success’ is even ever realised.
Add to this that many ‘innovations’ are energy and/or resource intensive (sometimes even sinks), requiring the destructive extraction and refinement of materials to continue and/or grow. ‘Breakthroughs’ are often simply profit-seeking schemes perpetuated by snake oil salesmen with media complicity through the ‘advertising’ of them. Their hype is meant to attract investors, not ‘solve’ anything for the benefit of society.
Another of the suggestions in the chapter that I have difficulty with is looking to our political systems to steer the establishment of self-sufficient communities. This is, in my opinion, misguided; as I have written about repeatedly. Subscribing to the Conflict Theory of how our governing institutions came to be and have ‘evolved’ (as opposed to Integrationist/Structural Functionalism Theory which the elite tend to push), I hold that our political systems are not the beneficent institutions we have been led to believe and that the political class and media crow on about repeatedly.
The systems’ primary role is and has been to help the ruling caste of society control and expand the wealth-generation and -extraction systems that provide their revenue streams. They ‘kick back’ a portion of this wealth to the masses to support the narratives about them being ‘representative’ of the people and acting in their best interests, but they siphon off most of the ‘wealth’ being generated by society and extracted from Nature. They only care about the environment in their messaging, not in their actions. And they certainly take no responsibility for the consequences of these actions.
Apart from these ‘inconsistencies’, the chapter (and book) cover some of the most important issues that confront our species and planet. Perhaps the most significant aspect raised in this text is the need to protect the planet’s wildlife and the ecosystems that all species depend upon. The options for doing this ‘successfully’, I’m afraid, are few.
If humanity wishes to avoid Nature responding in ways we probably don’t want or will ‘enjoy’, it seems to me that rapid and significant degrowth is the only remaining option. Given the ‘costs’ that would be involved and who the primary societal ‘influencers’ tend to be, I am increasingly doubtful that humanity as a whole will opt for a ‘managed’ path and that Nature will have the final say in our fate.
Time, of course, will tell how this all unfolds.
Some of my personal Contemplations that discuss the above topics:
Collapse Cometh CXCV–‘Renewable’ Energy: See, Hear, and Speak No Evil, Part 1 (Website; Medium; Substack), Part 2 (Website; Medium; Substack), Part 3 (Website; Medium; Substack)
Collapse Cometh CXCII–Sorry, folks, but ‘renewables’ are NOT going to save humanity or the planet (Website; Medium; Substack)
Collapse Cometh CXCI–The Nexus of Population, Energy, Innovation, and Complexity. (Website; Medium; Substack)
Collapse Cometh CLXXXIII-Complexity and Sustainability (Website; Medium; Substack)
Collapse Cometh CLXXXII-Tech ‘Solutions’ Are Us (Website; Medium; Substack)
Collapse Cometh CLXXXI-The Politics of Dancing: The politicians are now dj’s… (Website; Medium; Substack)
Collapse Cometh CLXXI–A ‘Solution’ to Our Predicaments: More Mass-Produced, Industrial Technologies (Website; Medium; Substack)
Collapse Cometh CLXV-Rackets: Keeping the Curtains on Reality Drawn (Website; Medium; Substack)
Summary Notes
Peak Oil, Economic Growth, and Wildlife Conservation
J.E. Gates, D.L. Trauger, & B. Czech (editors)
Springer Science and Business Media (2014)
Chapter 15: Envisioning An Alternative Future (pp. 316-339)
J.E. Gates, D.L. Trauger, & B. Czech
The authors argue that the planetary limits to growth of human activity seems imminent as does the peaking of energy production and economic growth (that will impact human populations directly). On top of this, our hydrocarbon-based industrial civilisation has contributed to destabilising our planet’s climate and the loss of biodiversity and wildlife habitat
With our population continuing to grow due to demographic momentum, in spite of falling reproductive rates in most advanced economies, we must aim to reduce our material consumption within these advanced economies to help them move towards sustainability while those experiencing widespread poverty can pursue economic growth.
A Peak Oil recap is provided with the conclusion that humans have squandered their hydrocarbon reserves on all sorts of frivolous things. Oil has become indispensable and there is no other form of energy that can replace it. A mythology surrounding a new oil boom has arisen in the US but it saw its best energy reserves extracted more than 70 years ago.
Even if new reserves that are inexpensive can be discovered, it would be in the planet’ best interests to stop extracting and burning hydrocarbons since ”exponential growth of our fossil-fuel-driven economy is accelerating biodiversity loss, and potentially contributing to irreversible planetary state shifts” (p. 318)
Whether we can adapt to an elimination of hydrocarbons depends on a number of factors including the rate of decline and lifestyle changes. A number of substitutes and technologies have been proposed to aid our weaning from hydrocarbons but they cannot provide the energy density and the cost and scale necessary is extremely problematic..
While environmentalists have railed against coal and oil, they have failed to consider arguing against all forms of energy production due to the continuing environmental damage from alternatives. And politicians have embraced the ‘green’ bandwagon as a way of providing jobs and stimulating the economy (while many continue to also support hydrocarbons)–they appear more concerned about increasing energy production than what source it comes from, its costs, or the environmental impacts; their actions appear to be mostly about supporting economic growth and business as usual.
The ‘solutions’ that have been proposed to address the various hurdles are insufficient due to issues of scale and dependence upon non-renewables. In addition, the rollout of alternatives have been adding to our energy use and not resulting in a decline in hydrocarbon use.
“Many proponents of industrial-scale solar arrays and wind turbines also fail to acknowledge their detrimental impacts on wildlife species and massive alteration of wildlife habitats in many locations (southwestern deserts, forested mountain ridge-lines, prairie and sagebrush habitats); plus, these devices produce electricity, not liquid fuels that are needed” (p. 320)
Liquid fuel ‘solutions’ carry their own environmental destruction aspects, low EROEI, and have issues of scale. In fact, virtually all ’solutions’ to the predicament of Peak Oil appear to be the result of wishful thinking, delay tactics, and/or for appearance. Disentangling our societies (especially economies) from hydrocarbons is near impossible
-convincing society to pay much more for ‘renewables’ to help us is also near impossible. Hydrocarbons are likely to continue to play a role in the future despite all the negative repercussions as alternatives have not been adopted to the scale required and as a result any action in response to possible catastrophic ecosystem collapse or climate system chaos will be too late.
Peak Economic Growth and Interest On Debt
Economic Growth
All world economies are pursuing growth (usually gauged via Gross Domestic Product; based upon personal consumption, business investment, goods and services exports, and government spending). While GDP is criticised as a measure for a variety of reasons, it does seem to be a good indicator of biodiversity loss. Anathema to economic growth is a stable or declining population/workforce and/or per capita consumption. Regardless, there must exist a limit to economic growth since the materials and energy required are of finite supply, and these limits must be recognised and respected to avoid an extended contraction and/or collapse. Growth rates are not sustainable and current growth has led to a number of negative consequences (e.g., sink overloading, biodiversity loss).
Monetary System
Our credit-/debt-based monetary system is one aspect of our economic system. To maintain this system and GDP growth, new debt must grow faster than old debt (this also ensures that loan principal plus debt is paid off). A decline in the rate of growth of the energy required to sustain these systems is resulting in increasing debt defaults with wealth being transferred to the rich (currently in the US, the top 1% of wealth-holders claim 40% of the total wealth). Such inequality has negative impacts upon social stability and are also destroying our natural assets.
Peak Nature and Earth’s Biodiversity
Mass Extinctions
Based upon past species extinctions, many biologists believe we are experiencing another Mass Extinction and caused primarily by human activity. Current extinction rates are about 1000-10,000 times higher than typical rates.
Threats To Human Health and Well-Being
Extinctions are irreversible and can have profound consequences for humans. “[T]he loss of one keystone species on which numerous other species are dependent could cause a trophic cascade, resulting in the extinctions of numerous species and compromising the functioning of the entire ecosystem. Many species also provide critical ecosystem services, such as processing wastes and recycling nutrients, at no cost to us. Other species aid in the control of pest species in agriculture and forestry, reducing the use of insecticides and treatment costs to society.” (p. 325). Plant pollinators are one such keystone species.
Anthropogenic Causes Of the Sixth Mass Extinction
Most, if not all, human activity is contributing to the mass extinction occurring; for example: ecosystem destruction, overexploitation of resources, land system changes, population growth, agriculture, pollution, introduction of invasive species. Many of these activities stem from our pursuit of economic growth. “Our sheer numbers and activities have made us a force of nature that now threatens the functioning of our planet’s life-support system.” (p. 326)
Reconnecting With the Earth
Most ignore this relatively slowly unfolding tragedy given seemingly more-pressing problems. “Trying to reconcile the cognitive dissonance that occurs in our perceptions of the future, ranging from a utopian, technological paradise to something out of “Mad Max”, can cause much mental stress and discomfort.” (p. 327) It’s easier to believe that all these ‘problems’ will be solved and we can continue with our business-as-usual path.
Existence without hydrocarbons would be vastly different from today’s modern complex societies. Hydrocarbons have provided the energy to grow our industrial civilisation and the benefits of many ‘energy slaves’. Given these are finite, either we will choose to scale them back on our own terms or this will be forced upon us. It is likely that many/most will not support purposeful contraction of their use and our economies, and will tend to blame the usual suspects when this happens. Some will claim to have ‘solutions’ if given enough power, and/or technological ‘breakthroughs’ will be heralded as the answer to Peak Oil.
Moving Toward Sustainability
Any sustainability movement should attempt to address a number of issues (e.g., resource depletion, biodiversity loss, sink overloading, etc.) and biodiversity loss should be a prominent component given its importance but it has not been. Current population growth and consumption are not sustainable (i.e., being maintained without exhaustion of resources or resulting in ecological damage).
“[W]e need to adapt our entire civilization to withstand shocks and roll with the punches of Peak Oil, resource depletion, climate change, and biodiversity loss; in other words, we need to build resilience and redundancy into our human and natural systems to increase their viability, which up until now have been shaped entirely by growth in the human economy.” (pp. 328-329)
To help transition to a shrinking economy, localised self-sufficient communities should be developed with significant rethinking about the many complexities of modern society (e.g., manufacturing, banking, transportation, governance, etc.). A more sustainable economic system is needed and should be founded in ecological economics and aiming to reduce consumption. A more sustainable agricultural system is also required using methods that protect the environment, human health, and animal welfare–practices must protect biodiversity and foster healthy ecosystems first and foremost. Such systems require more intensive manual labour as they are less reliant upon hydrocarbons and their adoption would result in far more people being involved in food production
“However, meeting the needs of a growing population would require producing more food on the same amount of agricultural land—a daunting task without fossil-fuel energy, herbicides, pesticides, fertilizer, and hybrid and genetically engineered (GMO) crops!” (p. 330)
Human Impacts On Earth’s Biodiversity
Human activity impacts natural landscapes in a number of ways but especially edge effects that provide routes for invasive species and are created by such things as power transmission corridors, fencing, and roadways
-in many countries, roadways are the most pervasive form of fragmentation (in the US alone, there are over 6 million kilometres of mapped roads). The continuing proliferation of this particular activity is leading to increasing edge effect impacts, habitat isolation, and species extinction. While there is “little that can be done at this point in time to save pristine ecosystems and their biota…benign neglect by humans could make it even worse, speeding up extinction rates and causing ecosystems to collapse rather than degrade. Humans need functioning ecosystems to provide the ecological services on which our civilization depends for its continued existence.” (p. 332)
Managing the Biodiversity Crisis
There exist a number of operations actively attempting to address the biodiversity crisis but the challenge is beyond environmental; it is human attitudinal and trying to get people to understand the importance of functioning ecosystems and how they support human welfare. This need, however, is “often up against powerful, well-connected and ecologically illiterate developers and interest groups, who feel that their way is the only way, particularly if they can cloak their project around economic growth.” (p. 333) Past compromises to provide mitigation have failed with total protection now being the only viable option that must be communicated to decision-makers.
Human population growth and its associated consumption must be confronted. This is challenging at the best of times, but even more so as we experience energy and resource depletion, economic uncertainty, climate chaos, and social unrest.
Hope For the Future
The hope is to take the steps necessary to save biodiversity but so long as economic growth is pursued that is unlikely to occur. “We need to reassess our long-term vision for human civilization and decide what we must do now to move it toward a more sustainable future for the benefit of the planet and generations yet to come.” (p. 335)
Once we envision where we want to go, we can begin our work to get there. “We envisage a future society distinguished by a stable population and per capita consumption, a more equitable distribution of income and wealth, full recycling of materials, waste streams that the environment can easily absorb or reuse in productive ways, and use of alternative, non-fossil-fuel sources of energy. Populations will be much smaller and in dynamic balance with available resources. Improvements in infrastructure by governments will be made without consumption of fossil fuels or piling on more debt and interest on debt.” (p 335)
Achieving this may or may not be possible and a balance between consumption and the planet’s ability to regenerate resources will eventually occur, either by human choice or Nature’s rebalancing processes. We can do things better and that are ecologically healthier but must reign in the pursuit of wealth/status and develop resilient, sustainable systems. If we cannot do this, we will be confronted by collapse of our modern societies alongside the loss of large portions of our biodiversity.
The more detailed summary notes can be found here.
Recent articles of related interest:
Natural Ecosystems and Climate Stabilization
The Local System Builds Community, The Global System Destroys It
The Energy Transition That Isn’t
Energy limits are forcing the economy to contract
Zooplankton study reveals how rising temperatures could lead to population crashes
EROEI and Civilization’s Forced Decline
How many more species will we let disappear?
Butterfly population in US shrinking by 22% over last 20 years, study shows | US news | The Guardian
Drill Baby Drill, Imperial Trump and the Collapse of American Energy Dominance
Acres of Amazon rainforest trees cut down to build road for climate summit
The 7 Fundamental Drivers of Overshoot – by Nate Hagens
Many U.S. bird species seen as reaching population ‘tipping point’ – The Japan Times
Reality Check: Energy Transition
Saudi Aramco, IEA Chiefs Clash In Houston Over the Future of Oil
US wild bird populations continue steep decline | Climate & Capitalism
Trump Says He’s Authorizing Use of Coal for Energy Production | The Epoch Times
Why OPEC+ is Supporting a Potentially Disastrous Rise in Oil Production | OilPrice.com
The “Energy Transition” is a Pipe Dream | Jean-Baptiste Fressoz
Biodiversity loss in all species and every ecosystem linked to humans – report
What is going to be my standard WARNING/ADVICE going forward and that I have reiterated in various ways before this:
“Only time will tell how this all unfolds but there’s nothing wrong with preparing for the worst by ‘collapsing now to avoid the rush’ and pursuing self-sufficiency. By this I mean removing as many dependencies on the Matrix as is possible and making do, locally. And if one can do this without negative impacts upon our fragile ecosystems or do so while creating more resilient ecosystems, all the better.
Building community (maybe even just household) resilience to as high a level as possible seems prudent given the uncertainties of an unpredictable future. There’s no guarantee it will ensure ‘recovery’ after a significant societal stressor/shock but it should increase the probability of it and that, perhaps, is all we can ‘hope’ for from its pursuit.”
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AND
Released September 30, 2024
It Bears Repeating: Best Of…Volume 2
A compilation of writers focused on the nexus of limits to growth, energy, and ecological overshoot.
With a Foreword by Erik Michaels and Afterword by Dr. Guy McPherson, authors include: Dr. Peter A Victor, George Tsakraklides, Charles Hugh Smith, Dr. Tony Povilitis, Jordan Perry, Matt Orsagh, Justin McAffee, Jack Lowe, The Honest Sorcerer, Fast Eddy, Will Falk, Dr. Ugo Bardi, and Steve Bull.
The document is not a guided narrative towards a singular or overarching message; except, perhaps, that we are in a predicament of our own making with a far more chaotic future ahead of us than most imagine–and most certainly than what mainstream media/politics would have us believe.
Click here to access the document as a PDF file, free to download.
