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Tag Archives: financial markets
Don’t Go Picking Up Quarters in Front of a Steamroller
Don’t Go Picking Up Quarters in Front of a Steamroller Photo by Leroy Evans How did you go bankrupt? Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly. ― Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises Winning the lottery sounds like a dream come true, until you understand most people who win end up broke a few years later. (Most don’t invest their money properly to […]
China Warns Global Financial Bubble Could Burst
China Warns Global Financial Bubble Could Burst Almost three months after markets stumbled when after China’s top banking regulator said he’s “very worried” about risks emerging from bubbles in global financial markets (and China’s property sector) sparking concerns about further tightening in the world’s second-biggest economy and slamming risk assets, China has done it again and on […]
Systemic Risks Abound
Systemic Risks Abound If you wanted to design a system guaranteed to collapse in a putrid heap, you’d make moral hazard ubiquitous and you’d make the system 100% dependent on a hubris-soaked faux savior. For the past 22 years, every time the stock market whimpered, wheezed or whined, the Federal Reserve rushed to soothe the […]
Weekly Commentary: Just the Facts – May 21, 2021
Weekly Commentary: Just the Facts – May 21, 2021 For the Week: The S&P500 slipped 0.4% (up 10.6% y-t-d), and the Dow declined 0.5% (up 11.8%). The Utilities added 0.4% (up 4.7%). The Banks fell 1.0% (up 35.1%), and the Broker/Dealers declined 1.2% (up 22.6%). The Transports sank 2.8% (up 23.7%). The S&P 400 Midcaps […]
Everything is On Fire
EVERYTHING IS ON FIRE “Everything is on fire” – Heraclitus (535-475 BC) What Heraclitus meant was that the world is in a constant state of flux. But the big problem in the next few years is that the world will experience a fire of a magnitude never seen before in history. I have in many […]
What roles for markets and for the state when climate risk is existential?
What roles for markets and for the state when climate risk is existential? Climate system tipping points. From Climate Reality Check 2020 This blog is based on a paper given to the University of Hamburg’s “Unsustainable Past – Sustainable Futures?” conference on 12 February 2021. A video of the presentation is available. In his foreword to our 2018 Breakthrough […]
Rabo: Please Don’t Make Us Look At The Inflation
Rabo: Please Don’t Make Us Look At The Inflation Markets continue to reel: “Risk crumbles”, says Bloomberg. Why? Because there is a plaintive plea from everyone from the Fed and the Treasury down to simple peddlers of exotic derivatives: please don’t make us look at the inflation! Yes, it’s US inflation-data day – and nobody wants to see […]
Here’s How ‘Everything Bubbles’ Pop
Here’s How ‘Everything Bubbles’ Pop But weirdly, and irrationally, bubbles pop anyway. At long last, the moment you’ve been hoping for has arrived: you’re pitching your screenplay to a producer. Your agent is cautious but you’re confident nobody else has concocted a story as outlandish as yours. Your agent gives you the nod and you’re off […]
Would the Last Market Bull With the Last Dollar Please Turn Off the Music?
Would the Last Market Bull With the Last Dollar Please Turn Off the Music? Photo by Pablo Heimplatz on Unsplash Reality always wins in the end. It doesn’t matter if you’re excited about the economy or its outlook. Unless some economic scam is being perpetuated (unlikely), fundamentals always play a factor, and guide the U.S. economy through peaks and […]
The Everything Bubble and What it Means for Your Money
The Everything Bubble and What it Means for Your Money In the aftermath of the Black Plague which swept across Europe between 1347 and 1353, wiping out between 30 and 60% of the population, the European economy changed dramatically. Source: Jeremy Norman – HistoryofInformation.com The Black Plague had a lasting socioeconomic impact; for example, towns […]
If You Don’t See Any Risk, Ask Who Will “Buy the Dip” in a Freefall?
If You Don’t See Any Risk, Ask Who Will “Buy the Dip” in a Freefall? Nobody thinks a euphoric rally could ever go bidless, but as Greenspan belatedly admitted, liquidity is not guaranteed. The current market melt-up is taken as nearly risk-free because the Fed has our back, i.e. the Federal Reserve will intervene long […]
THIS is What a Margin Call Looks Like: the Consequences of Stock Market Mania
THIS is What a Margin Call Looks Like: the Consequences of Stock Market Mania Financial World A couple of weeks ago, we reported on various examples of stock market mania that have exploded in 2021. Now it’s time to examine a major event that could be a clear harbinger for “the big one” to come. It starts […]
Rehypothecated Leverage: How Archegos Built A $100 Billion Portfolio Out Of Thin Air… And Then Blew Up
Rehypothecated Leverage: How Archegos Built A $100 Billion Portfolio Out Of Thin Air… And Then Blew Up One week after the biggest, and most spectacular hedge fund collapse since LTCM, we now have an (almost) clear picture of how Bill Hwang’s Archegos family office managed to single-handedly make a boring media stock the best performing […]
Ponzis Go Boom!!!
Ponzis Go Boom!!! For the past few years, I have been critical of the Ponzi Sector. To me, these are businesses that sell a dollar for 80 cents and hope to make it up in volume. Just because Amazon (AMZN – USA) ran at a loss early on, doesn’t mean that all businesses will inflect […]
Archegos Implosion is a Sign of Massive Stock Market Leverage that Stays Hidden until it Blows Up and Hits the Banks
Archegos Implosion is a Sign of Massive Stock Market Leverage that Stays Hidden until it Blows Up and Hits the Banks Banks, as prime brokers and counterparties to the hedge fund, are eating multi-billion-dollar losses as they try to get out of these secretive stock derivative positions. The implosion of an undisclosed hedge fund, now […]
