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The Great Switch: The Geo-Politics of Looming Recession

The Great Switch: The Geo-Politics of Looming Recession  Is the prospect of looming global recession merely an economic matter, to be discussed within the framework of the Great Financial Crisis of 2008 – which is to say, whether or not, the Central Bankers have wasted their available tools to manage it? Or, is there a […]

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Iran Deploys 2 Warships To Escort Commercial Vessels As Zarif Flies To Beijing After G-7

Iran Deploys 2 Warships To Escort Commercial Vessels As Zarif Flies To Beijing After G-7 The threshold to an armed conflict around the Persian Gulf just got even smaller. On Monday, Iran said it had deployed two warships – a destroyer and a helicopter carrier – to protect the country’s commercial vessels around the Gulf […]

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The G-7 Blues

The G-7 Blues What’s at stake in all these international confabs like the G-7 are the tenuous supply lines that keep the global game going. The critical ones deliver oil around the world. China imports about 10 million barrels a day to keep its operations going. It produces less than 4 million barrels a day. […]

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Weekly Commentary: Comeuppance

Weekly Commentary: Comeuppance The Chinese Credit machine sputtered in July. Growth in Total Aggregate Financing dropped to $144 billion, almost 40% below consensus estimates. This was less than half of June’s $320 billion increase and the slowest expansion since February. The sharp slowdown was beyond typical seasonality, with the month’s growth in Aggregate Financing 18% […]

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Chinese Paramilitary Troops, Tanks Hold Threatening Exercises At Shenzen Sports Stadium

Chinese Paramilitary Troops, Tanks Hold Threatening Exercises At Shenzen Sports Stadium As we shared yesterday, satellite images confirmed President Trump’s warning that Chinese troops were massing on the Hong Kong border. Now, the AFP has published photos showing more military buildup unfolding in Shenzen. The photos show what Reuters reports are hundreds of members of the People’s Armed Police, […]

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‘Fall Armyworm’ Invades China; Wreaks Havoc On Agriculture Lands

‘Fall Armyworm’ Invades China; Wreaks Havoc On Agriculture Lands China’s agriculture ministry warned in June that it found fall armyworms in 21 provinces, across 333,000 hectares of crops. Fall armyworms (Spodoptera frugiperda) are a destructive garden pest that can destroy a variety of crops as well as grasses. Chinese officials are worried about prevention and control measures of the […]

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Chinese Banks No Longer Trust One Another As Repo Rates Skyrocket

Chinese Banks No Longer Trust One Another As Repo Rates Skyrocket For those who have grown bored with the ongoing US-China trade war whose escalation was obvious to all but the dumbest BTFD algos, the biggest news of the past week was that yet another Chinese bank was bailed out by the Chinese government – the third […]

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U.S. Currency Wars With China—Past And Present In a purely political move, the Trump administration (read: the U.S. Treasury) has branded China as a currency manipulator. This is an act of war. After President Trump announced that even more tariffs would be imposed on China, the markets took the value of the Chinese yuan down […]

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Hair-Trigger Nuclear Alert Over Kashmir

HAIR-TRIGGER NUCLEAR ALERT OVER KASHMIR Two of the world’s most important powers, India and Pakistan, are locked into an extremely dangerous confrontation over the bitterly disputed Himalayan mountain state of Kashmir. Both are nuclear armed. Kashmir has been a flashpoint since Imperial Britain divided India in 1947. India and Pakistan have fought numerous wars and […]

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Powell Rate Cut Unleashes Volatility Tsunami

Powell Rate Cut Unleashes Volatility Tsunami It wasn’t supposed to work this way. In the rate cut playbook envisioned by Trump, Powell’s July 31st rate cut was supposed to send stocks higher while crushing the dollar. However, when the FOMC announce a “mid-cycle”, 25bps cut, the outcome was not only a surge in the dollar […]

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Forget Iran, Maximum Pressure Has Shifted to China

Forget Iran, Maximum Pressure Has Shifted to China In the past week the pressure on China by the U.S. has escalated daily. Since the trade delegation came back from China with lunch barely digested the Trump Administration has gone into over drive on demonizing China here at home. From finally declaring China a currency manipulator after years of threats […]

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Tiananmen Square 2.0? Beijing Warns Hong Kong Protesters Will Be ‘Punished’ — Military Intervention Possible

Tiananmen Square 2.0? Beijing Warns Hong Kong Protesters Will Be ‘Punished’ — Military Intervention Possible  As the situation in Hong Kong continues to deteriorate, Beijing has issued a warning that protesters would soon be punished for “criminal acts,” and has refused to rule out military force to quell ongoing anti-government demonstrations, according to The Telegraph.  According […]

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“New Cold War” Unleashing “Geopolitical Chaos”: China Reacts To US Offensive Missiles In Asia

“New Cold War” Unleashing “Geopolitical Chaos”: China Reacts To US Offensive Missiles In Asia China’s Global Times — the communist country’s hawkish, belligerent state tabloid — has responded to the Pentagon’s Friday announcement stating the US is looking to deploy intermediate range ballistic missiles to Asia “within months,” warning “it will certainly trigger an intense arms race in the region.” Its editorial board, long understood as a […]

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The Dragon lays out its road map, denies seeking hegemony

The Dragon lays out its road map, denies seeking hegemony The key merit of China’s National Defense in the New Era, a white paper released by the State Council in Beijing, is to clear any remaining doubts about where the Middle Kingdom is coming from, and where it’s going to by 2049, the mythical date to, theoretically, […]

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Bretton Woods Is Dead: What Next?

Bretton Woods Is Dead: What Next?  French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire has publicly admitted something normally reserved for backroom discussion in the circles of Europe’s governing elite at an event honoring the 75thanniversary of Bretton Woods (the conference which created the foundations for the post WWII world order). At this event, Le Maire stated ever-so candidly […]

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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