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Stocks Slide As CDC Confirms 53 Cases In The US
Stocks Slide As CDC Confirms 53 Cases In The US
Summary:
- Stocks slide as CDC releases new US case numbers
- Italy reports 7th death, 200+ confirmed cases
- WHO says outbreak not yet a ‘pandemic’
- First cases reported in Oman, Bahrain
- WHO kowtows to China in statement
- Wuhan issues order to loosen lockdown, then U-turns
- NHC says outbreak is fading, though situation remains “grim”
- China approves crackdown on wildlife trade after WHO says virus likely came from bats
- Iranian lawmaker says more than 50 deaths in Qom; officials say 12
- Hong Kong bars South Koreans
- more cases reported in SK
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Update (1220ET): US stocks took another leg lower, falling to their lowest levels of the session with the Dow down 1,000 points, following the latest headlines out of the CDC confirming 39 cases of the virus have been detected among the rest of the ~300 individuals from the ‘Diamond Princess’.
The CDC reportedly opposed the State Department’s decision to allow 14 individuals who were confirmed to be infected to travel on the evac flight after their cases were confirmed just before takeoff, thanks to one of the many botched, drop-the-ball moments attributed to Japanese health officials.
This is exactly what they warned about: In addition to the 14 people who were already infected, it appears another 25 were infected on the flight back – where the sick individuals were separated by the rest using duct tape and a thin tarp-like sheet.
That brings total US cases to 53.
Meanwhile, the CD isolated 14 cases outside those who caught the virus aboard the DP.
- U.S. CDC SAYS 14 CONFIRMED CASES OF COVID-19 AS OF FEB. 24, 39 CASES AMONG THOSE REPATRIATED TO U.S.
Six of these cases are believed to be in San Antonio, according to local press reports.
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…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
The Rate Of Diamond Princess Infections Suggest Worldwide Infections Are Much Higher Than Official Reports
The Rate Of Diamond Princess Infections Suggest Worldwide Infections Are Much Higher Than Official Reports
Summary: The Diamond Princess cruise ship is the largest controlled COVID-19 coronavirus infected population outside of China
- 20% of the ship were infected over three weeks
- From this, it suggests the rate of official reported infections (largely in China) is likely too low
- This corroborates well with what our models have been saying: official reported infections are likely too low
- From our models, far more people have likely been infected, but the death rate is also (thankfully) coming in lower than expected – worse than the flu, but perhaps in-line or lower than SARS, and definitely not a death sentence
- Two passengers died last night from the Diamond Princess (male 87 and female 84) after being airlifted from the ship to a hospital a week ago, which implies a 1-2% death rate
- And 14 days might not be long enough to conclusively prevent COVID-19 transmission, from the Diamond Princess experience, although passengers have now been released
The rate of Diamond Princess infections suggest worldwide infections are likely much higher than official reports
- From the log scale chart below, the rate of Diamond Princess infections is much higher than infections suggested by official data (on log charts, lines with the same slope have the same growth rates)
- Additionally, the Diamond Princess growth is very stable along the growth line versus the official data which doesn’t seem to follow a growth trend
- Extending the fitted Diamond Princess line back to Patient Zero shows the first patient likely occurred on 21 January 2020 – in very good agreement with the actual assumed Patient Zero arriving on the cruise on the afternoon of 20 January
- There is a slight possibility that massive quarantines in Hubei and China overall have dramatically slowed the infections rate, but we believe other possibilities are more likely
US Breaks Cruise Ship Quarantine, Flies 13 Infected Americans To Omaha Facility
US Breaks Cruise Ship Quarantine, Flies 13 Infected Americans To Omaha Facility
While China does everything in its power do demonstrate that the number of new cases in both Hubei province where the coronavirus epicenter of Wuhan is located, and across China, is declining with every passing day in a sign that the epidemic is being ringfenced and is gradually coming under control – whether people on the ground actually believe the government which for at least the first three weeks of the breakout was lying and arresting anyone who spread facts about the deadly disease is a different matter entirely and will manifest itself in how quickly China can return to normal – attention has gradually moved to the spread of the virus offshore, where the number of new cases is starting to turn exponential.
As the chart below shows, after growing at a modest pace, the number of people infected outside of the mainland is now accelerating at an alarming pace.
But one rather stunning fact when analyzing the offshore progression of the disease, is that there are now more cumulative coronavirus cases on just one cruise ship – the infamous Diamond Princess which has been quarantined in Japan for the past two weeks – then there are in all other localities outside of China (which begs the question just how many people are infected around the globe and have so far avoided detection).
As a reminder, the Princess Cruises ship was carrying 2,666 guests and 1,045 crew when it set sail and was quarantined after 10 cases of coronavirus were reported Feb. 4. Since then the number of cases on board has exploded, and on Monday alone, Japan announced an additional 99 infections on the Diamond Princess, raising the ship’s total number of cases to 454. And since most of the people on the ship have yet to be tested, the real number of infections may not be known for days.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
