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The Rate Of Diamond Princess Infections Suggest Worldwide Infections Are Much Higher Than Official Reports

The Rate Of Diamond Princess Infections Suggest Worldwide Infections Are Much Higher Than Official Reports

SummaryThe Diamond Princess cruise ship is the largest controlled COVID-19 coronavirus infected population outside of China

  • 20% of the ship were infected over three weeks
  • From this, it suggests the rate of official reported infections (largely in China) is likely too low
  • This corroborates well with what our models have been saying: official reported infections are likely too low
  • From our models, far more people have likely been infected, but the death rate is also (thankfully) coming in lower than expected – worse than the flu, but perhaps in-line or lower than SARS, and definitely not a death sentence
  • Two passengers died last night from the Diamond Princess (male 87 and female 84) after being airlifted from the ship to a hospital a week ago, which implies a 1-2% death rate
  • And 14 days might not be long enough to conclusively prevent COVID-19 transmission, from the Diamond Princess experience, although passengers have now been released

The rate of Diamond Princess infections suggest worldwide infections are likely much higher than official reports

  • From the log scale chart below, the rate of Diamond Princess infections is much higher than infections suggested by official data (on log charts, lines with the same slope have the same growth rates)
  • Additionally, the Diamond Princess growth is very stable along the growth line versus the official data which doesn’t seem to follow a growth trend
  • Extending the fitted Diamond Princess line back to Patient Zero shows the first patient likely occurred on 21 January 2020 – in very good agreement with the actual assumed Patient Zero arriving on the cruise on the afternoon of 20 January
  • There is a slight possibility that massive quarantines in Hubei and China overall have dramatically slowed the infections rate, but we believe other possibilities are more likely

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