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Egypt budget and current account deficits – can Saudi Arabia bail out Cairo?
Egypt budget and current account deficits – can Saudi Arabia bail out Cairo? Arab News reports: KSA pledges SR 30bn Egypt aid 17/12/2015 “JEDDAH: Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Salman has ordered that Saudi Arabia’s aid and investment package to Egypt should be increased to SR30 billion (US$ 8 bn) in the next […]
Egypt update: net oil importer and chokepoints
Egypt update: net oil importer and chokepoints Oil production and consumption Fig 1: Oil production vs consumption After a post-peak decline production has stabilized but consumption has increased relentlessly at a long-term 1.7% pa, slightly below population growth of around 2% pa. Egypt is now a net oil importer. On these trends, the gap between […]
IEA: US$ 40 oil means 3 mp/d less oil by 2020
IEA: US$ 40 oil means 3 mp/d less oil by 2020 You want $40 oil? Yes, please. But according to the World Energy Outlook 2015 of the International Energy Agency, recently released in London, that would mean 3 mb/d less US tight (shale) oil by 2020. That’s about 4% of global crude production. Fly less […]
Saudi Arabia’s fiscal break-even oil price to be around $US 100 mark for the foreseeable future
Saudi Arabia’s fiscal break-even oil price to be around $US 100 mark for the foreseeable future The latest IMF Article IV consultation report on Saudi Arabia was published on 9 September 2015. http://www.imf.org/external/country/sau/ Extract: Government spending has increased substantially in recent years. Consequently, the breakeven oil price rose to $106 a barrel in 2014 from $69 […]
US shale oil too expensive, peaks 1H 2015
US shale oil too expensive, peaks 1H 2015 According to EIA data, monthly US crude oil production peaked in April 2015 at 9.6 mb/d. Fig 1: US crude oil production to June 2015 http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_crd_crpdn_adc_mbblpd_m.htm The above graph shows that US crude production increased by around 4 mb/d between mid 2011 and mid 2015, mostly from […]
Syria peak oil weakened government’s finances ahead of Arab Spring in 2011
Syria peak oil weakened government’s finances ahead of Arab Spring in 2011 While the attention of the world is on the refugee crisis we need to look at the causes of this mass exodus. Fig 1: Refugees walking on Hungarian motorway towards Austria in Sep 2015 In May 2013 the Guardian had an article “Peak […]
Europe oil consumption peaked 2005
Europe oil consumption peaked 2005 This is the 3rd article using data from the BP Statistical Review published in June 2015 Fig 1: Western Europe oil consumption, oil prices in $2014 Total oil consumption peaked 3 times at around 14 mb/d: (1) In 1973, the 1st oil crisis which was triggered by the Yom Kippur war. […]
Asia depends on Middle East for 66 % of its oil imports
Asia depends on Middle East for 66 % of its oil imports This post uses data from the inter area oil movement section of the BP Statistical Review published in June 2015. It is a continuation of an earlier post on Asian oil consumption and production Global trade and Asia’s share Total global oil trade […]
China’s offshore CNOOC started to peak in 2010
China’s offshore CNOOC started to peak in 2010 The China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) is the largest producer of offshore oil and gas in China. Production statistics should therefore be pretty much indicative of what is happening along China’s coastline. Data from annual reports show that net oil and gas liquids production in 4 […]
