US shale oil too expensive, peaks 1H 2015
According to EIA data, monthly US crude oil production peaked in April 2015 at 9.6 mb/d.
Fig 1: US crude oil production to June 2015
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_crd_crpdn_adc_mbblpd_m.htm
The above graph shows that US crude production increased by around 4 mb/d between mid 2011 and mid 2015, mostly from shale oil which took off – with a delay – when oil prices exceeded US$ 80-90. That stellar growth has come to an end, also with a delay, after oil prices plummeted.
Let’s zoom into the period starting with January 2014:
Fig 2: US incremental crude production Jan 2014 – Jun 2015
The April 2015 peak was caused by higher GOM production resulting from production start-ups after lifting the drilling moratorium in 2010. Shale oil peaked one month earlier, after the winter drop. However, month by month production can change and future revisions of data are likely due to reporting delays. What is more important than the month of peaking is the fact that US oil production stopped growing.
(Note: Incremental production is calculated as production minus the minimum production in the period under consideration. The sum of the minimum production is the base production)
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