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Australian Fuel Security Review ignores peak oil in China 2015 (part 2)

Australian Fuel Security Review ignores peak oil in China 2015 (part 2)

Coming back to the 2019 Liquid Security Review
https://www.environment.gov.au/energy/liquid-fuel-security-review-consultation

Figures 9-11 in part 1 show how dependent Australia has become on fuel imports from South Korea and Japan, even China. The Review is aware of this, as shown on this map:

Australia_oil_supply_routes_2019
Fig 18: Australia’s oil supply routes

Note that any military confrontation in the South China Sea would necessitate the re-routing of crude supplies from the Middle East to South Korea and Japan via the Strait of Lombok (East of Bali) or – in the worst case – the Bass Strait as shown on this sketch map of the Centre of Strategic and International Studies (Washington):

SLOC-map
Fig 19: Alternative shipping routes for the Sunda and Malacca Straits
https://chinapower.csis.org/much-trade-transits-south-china-sea/

Similar detours will be necessary if there is a military confrontation in the Taiwan Strait or around the Korean peninsula. Although tensions have eased, the North Korean problem has not been solved. Particularly vulnerable is the refining complex in Ulsan because of its size.

Conflicts are more likely because Asian oil production has peaked and oil demand is growing:

Asia_oil_production_consumption_2005-2017_fill_in-2037
Fig 20: Homework for all State and Federal governments

More details are in following posts:

15/8/2018   Peak oil in the Asia Pacific (part 3)
http://crudeoilpeak.info/peak-oil-in-the-asia-pacific-part-3

12/8/2018   Peak oil in China and the Asia Pacific (part 2)
http://crudeoilpeak.info/peak-oil-in-china-and-the-asia-pacific-part-2

18/6/2018   Peak oil in Asia Pacific (part 1)
http://crudeoilpeak.info/peak-oil-in-asia-pacific-part-1

Asia imports around 16 mb/d from the Middle East, not sufficient for its growing demand. Increasing imports now also come from Africa, South and Central America and the Former Soviet Union (FSU)

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Australian Fuel Security Review ignores peak oil in China 2015 (part 1)

Australian Fuel Security Review ignores peak oil in China 2015 (part 1)

Just a week before a Federal election was called the Australian Minister for Energy, Markus Taylor, released an interim report on fuel security on 4th April 2019 for public consultation (hereinafter called “Review”). The announcement of the report release was done without great fanfare, possibly with the intention not to enter a heated election debate.
http://www.environment.gov.au/minister/taylor/media-releases/mr20190404.html

This report was initiated by the previous Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull in May 2018
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-07/australia-has-limited-emergency-fuel-stocks-left/9734164

The last report (National Energy Security Assessment 2011) was done by the previous government (Resource Minister Martin Ferguson) in December 2011
https://www.energy.gov.au/sites/default/files/national-energy-security-assessment-2011_0.pdf

What has changed since then?

In the 1st part of this article we look at Australian graphs. The Review doesn’t show these details.

Australian oil production has further declined, 3 refineries have closed, oil and fuel stocks have dropped by 45% and fuel imports from Asia have surged. China’s oil production peaked in 2015, oil imports doubled and the South China Sea has been militarized  to secure oil supply routes. Oil prices went through a roller coaster from $110 in 2011 to $30 in Jan 2016 and back up to $70 now. It seems surging US shale oil production can’t keep prices constant at reasonable levels. The media hype about the US being a swing producer isn’t justified.

Australia_oil_production_vs_consumption_1965-2017
Fig 1: Australia in peak oil mode since 2000

Of course, the government doesn’t like the word “peak oil”. To be fair, the Review mentions that Australia’s oil production is in decline while consumption has increased (p 26). The following graph shows monthly production:

Australia_crude_condensate_LPG_production_2010-Jan2019
Fig 2: Crude oil, condensate and LPG production

The uptick in condensate production is a result of increasing offshore gas production. Note that condensate and LPG have lower energy content per barrel.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

NSW power imports in January 2019 heatwave exceed 2 GW, drive up electricity prices

NSW power imports in January 2019 heatwave exceed 2 GW, drive up electricity prices

Maximum demand for electricity increased from 9,500 MW on 13 Jan 2019 (16:00) to a whopping 14,000 MW on 17 Jan 2019 (17:30).

NSW-7days
Fig 1: Heatwave pushing up power demand
20190117 New South Wales
Pic 2: Power generation graph downloaded from Open NEM website
https://opennem.org.au/#/regions/nsw

Downloading the data in XLS format allows us to restack the above graph to show more details on coal:

NSW_power_generation_17Jan2019
Fig 3: NSW power generation with coal stacked first

“Black coal net of pumps” means that off-peak pumping for hydro storage has been deducted from the total coal generation. We see that the off-peak pumps replace only part of the main hydro generation (around 1/3) so Snowy would run dry without replenishment by rain.

Coal fired power generation reached around 9,000 MW by 1 pm and continued at that level until 10 pm. That is 93% of the maximum theoretical capacity of 9,660 MW as per following table:

NSW-coal-generation-capacity_2017-2028
Fig 4: Capacities of coal fired power plants in NSW


https://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/National-Electricity-Market-NEM/Planning-and-forecasting/Generation-information
Note that Liddell’s capacity was reduced to 1,800 MW (which seems to be 4×450 MW). However, the Australia Institute has only 4×350 MW as per December 2018.
http://www.tai.org.au/content/unit-trip-liddell-nsw-2018-12-23
This aging coal plant is scheduled to be closed in 2022 due to ongoing technical problems.

Let’s zoom into generation excluding coal:

NSW_excluding-coal_17Jan2019
Fig 5: NSW power imports and generation without coal

When the demand peak happens between 16:00 and 18:00 solar output is going down. Imports can’t increase due to capacity constraints of interconnectors and also generation availability in other States so hydro has to cover the peak on top of gas.

NSW-interconnectors_2017

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Qatar peak oil

Qatar peak oil

Qatar announces it will leave OPEC

Qatar_Minister_Energy_Dec2018

Qatar to withdraw from OPEC in January 2019
Speaking at a news conference in the capital Doha, al-Kaabi said: “The withdrawal decision reflects Qatar’s desire to focus its efforts on plans to develop and increase its natural gas production from 77 million tonnes per year to 110 million tonnes in the coming years.”

“They say it has nothing to do with the blockade on Qatar and that they have been thinking about it for several months now,” Bellis said, referring to a diplomatic blockade on Qatar by Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates ( UAE ), Egypt and Bahrain.

Since 2013, the amount of oil Qatar produced has steadily declined from about 728,000 barrels per day in 2013 to about 607,000 barrels per day in 2017, or just under two percent of OPEC’s total output.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/12/qatar-withdraw-opec-january-2019-181203061900372.html

Qatar_CandC_liquids_Jan1994-Aug2018Fig 2: All liquids production with EIA data
https://www.eia.gov/beta/international/data/browser/

Qatar_crude_production_2002-Sep2018_Jodi

Fig 3: Crude production and exports (Jodi data)

Oil_Gas4_big

Fig 4: Qatari oil and gas fields (main oil fields: Dukhan, Al Shaheen, Idd el Shargi)

Qatar_crude_condensate_NGL_production_1949-1965-1980-2017

Fig 5: Crude, condensate and NGL production

OPEC’s Statistical Bulletin
https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/publications/202.htm

Qatar-oil-production-consumption_2017

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

European oil consumption after North Sea Peak Oil

European oil consumption after North Sea Peak Oil

Hors-d’oeuvre

On the streets of Paris: 24 Nov 2018

Fuel-protests_24Nov2018Fuel price protests on the Champs Elysees

France-price-fuels_2008-2018https://france-inflation.com/prix-carburants.php

Reunion_truck_gilets-jaunes

20 Nov 2018: The “gilets jaunes” have a hard time to convince truck drivers to join their movement
https://www.francetvinfo.fr/economie/transports/prix-des-carburants/gilets-jaunes-les-routiers-divises_3045615.html

They were more successful on the French island of Réunion in the Indian Ocean, where blocked roads and petrol rationing resulted in empty supermarket shelves, highlighting how vulnerable our just-in-time society is.

Reunion_barrages_25Nov201825/11/2018 Road blocks in Réunion
https://www.linfo.re/la-reunion/societe/barrages-le-point-sur-le-reseau-routier

Reunion_fuel-shortage_Nov2018Petrol lines in St Denis, €20 rationing, shops closed, shelves emptying, medical supply disruptions
https://www.francetvinfo.fr/economie/automobile/essence/la-reunion-une-ile-asphyxiee_3048073.html

Oil statistics

European oil production peaked in 2000 at almost 7 mb/d, with a production plateau above 6.8 mb/d lasting for 7 years between 1996 and 2002. 17 years after the peak, production was around half of what it was at peak.

Europe_production_imports_1965-2017Fig 1: Europe oil consumption, net oil imports and production

BP’s definitions are as follows: “Oil production includes crude oil, shale oil, tar sands and NGLs (natural gas liquids – the liquid content of natural gas where this is recovered separately). It excludes liquid fuels from other sources such as biomass and derivatives of coal and natural gas.

Oil consumption is from inland demand plus international aviation and marine bunkers and refinery fuel and loss. Consumption of biogasoline (such as ethanol), biodiesel and derivatives of coal and natural gas are also included.

Notes: Differences between these world consumption figures and world production statistics are accounted for by stock changes, consumption of non-petroleum additives”

In Fig 1 and 3, net oil imports are calculated as the difference between production and consumption.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Saudi Update October 2018

Saudi Update October 2018

We do not know where the Khashoggi case will go but what is happening in Saudi Arabia is  important for the world.

Jodi data up to Aug 2018, released 19/10/2018  http://www.jodidb.org

Major_crude_exporters_Oct2018Fig 1: Saudi Arabia is crude exporter #1

Note that these are gross exports. The US (which is a net importer of crude) is shown for comparison.

SaudiArabia_crude_prod_exports_2002-Aug2018_JodiFig 2: Saudi crude production and exports

Crude oil exports (red line) have been on a bumpy plateau between 7-8 mb/d since 2011, but in 2018 were actually lower than in 2005 when global crude production first peaked. Increases in production (black line) were modest (compared to Saudi’s claimed reserves of 266 Gb) and mainly used domestically:

Saudi_crude_use_exports_2002-Aug2018Fig 3: Use of Saudi crude production (stacked)

The light green area is stock build, the dark red area stock draw (sitting on top of the production curve) and used as refiner intake. See Fig 8 for more details.

Saudi_direct_burn_2009-Aug2018Fig 4: Saudi direct crude burn in power plants

This is highly seasonal between 300 kb/d in winter and 600 kb/d in summer.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Sydney playing risky and costly metropoly games amid oil price fears (part 1)

Sydney playing risky and costly metropoly games amid oil price fears (part 1)

Sydney must be the only city in the world which closes its most modern heavy rail tunnel, 12.5 kms, designed for its ubiquitous double deckers and used by long distance commuters for an unacceptable long period of 7 months, only to be downgraded to narrow body, seat starved single deck trains, incompatible with the whole of Sydney’s rail system and touted to the public as a “metro”.

Epping_rail_tunnel_closure_Oct2018

Fig 1: Escalators to underground platforms 5&6 at Epping station in early October 2018

Epping_Chatswood_open_Feb2009

Fig 2: First train in Epping – Chatswood tunnel, was not missed by then Premier Rees

The rail tunnel was opened in Feb 2009, 10 years after it was first announced in the Action for Transport 2010 plan. It was in operation for just 9.5 years. That is the life-span of Sydney’s rail infrastructure.

Lee_Lin_Chin_SL1

Fig 3: NSW government’s promotional video

The NSW government’s propaganda machinery even had to employ a well-known TV presenter to sell their replacement bus services to frustrated passengers. Here is the bus job ahead:

Epping-train_1730_23Jul2018

Fig 4: Standing only in a 17:30 double decker to Epping via Macquarie Park in July 2018

This article continues research done 4 years ago:

4/1/2015 Sydney mismanages transition to driver-less single deck trains (part 2)

30/12/2014 Sydney plans to dismantle rail infrastructure built just 6 years ago (part 1)

Would the government even dare to think closing the Lane Cove road tunnel which runs parallel to the rail tunnel, for that period? Not much public resistance was put up against the rail tunnel closure. After 20 years of 2 consecutive governments back-flipping on various permutations of rail links in Sydney’s North-West, the electorate has obviously resigned, knowing that the opposition is just as bad as the government of the day. In a certain sense Sydney’s rail planning seems to mirror the revolving door syndrome of Federal politics on climate change and renewable energy.

PRL_closed

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

What happened to crude oil production after the first peak in 2005?

What happened to crude oil production after the first peak in 2005?

The IEA (in Paris) proudly announced in its latest September 2018 Monthly Oil Market Report that global supplies (of liquids) have reached 100 mb/d in August, an impressive figure. What matters, however, is crude oil production, something the IEA does not show in its monthly reports (only OPEC’s crude oil production is given). We therefore look at data of the US Energy Information Administration EIA which go up to May 2018 at the time of writing this article.

As shown in Fig 1, it is clear that the world’s crude production had a distinctive kink in 2005 which looked like a peak at the time of the financial crisis 2008/09. So what has happened since then? How successful was money printing to rescue the oil production system?

World_crude_production_1994-May2018

In Fig 1, countries are stacked in the order given in Fig 2 where on the left we have countries which have declined since 2005 (red columns group A) and on the right we have countries which increased production after 2005 (green columns group B)

Crude_prod_changes_2005-May_2018

Group A
Countries where average oil production Jan-May 2018 was lower than the average in 2005. At the bottom is Mexico with the highest rate of decline. This group started to peak in 1997, entering a long bumpy production plateau at around 25 mb/d, ending – you guessed it – in 2005. This is down now to 16 mb/d, a decline of 700 kb/d pa (-2.8% pa).Decline-group_1994-May2018

Group B

Countries where average oil production Jan-May 2018 was higher than the average in 2005. At the top of the stack are Iraq and the US, where growth was highest. Group B compensated for the decline in group A and provided for growth above the red dashed line in Fig 1.
The 2018 data have not been seasonally adjusted.

In group B we have a subgroup of countries which peaked after 2005

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

Peak oil in China and the Asia Pacific (part 2)

Peak oil in China and the Asia Pacific (part 2)

South China Sea: ‘Leave immediately and keep far off’

US-Poseidon-over-Zhubi-Reef_Aug2018

Fig 1: U.S. Navy P-8A Poseidon reconnaissance plane overflying disputed Spratly islands

11/8/2018
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dodbqgKn8js
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-asia-45152525/south-china-sea-leave-immediately-and-keep-far-off

Spratly-islands

Fig 2: Subi reef location in the South China Sea

Subi_12_07_17_STITCHED_wm

Fig 3: CSIS image of Subi reef low tide elevation (976 acres reclaimed). https://amti.csis.org/subi-reef/

Estimated_undiscovered_resources_South_China_Sea_USGS

Fig 4: USGS 2010 assessment of undiscovered oil resources
https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2010/3015/pdf/FS10-3015.pdf

According the USGS there is not much oil in the South China Sea. China is securing its oil supply routes as future oil imports are going to increase after production peaked 2010-2015.

China_oil_production_vs_consumption_1965-2017

On average, Chinese oil consumption grew exponentially (!) between 1982 and around 2010 at 6.5% pa. In some years, there were huge variations around this trend. For example in 2004 oil consumption increased by almost 1 million barrels/day, 500 kb/d above the long term trend. This spike was caused by additional fuel oil needed for back-up power generators as there were wide spread power shortages. In the following (Katrina) year 2005 consumption growth dropped to just 150 kb/d as fuel shortages started.

China_Petrol_Shortages_August2005

Smoke and Mirrors in China’s Oil Statistics
June 2008
In recent years, oil product shortages in China have frequently caught the attention of the world. In August 2005, China’s southern manufacturing heartland of Guandong was plagued by closed service stations, fuel rationing and hours-long gas queues, and authorities were forced to send thousands of police to petrol stations in Guangzhou to prevent massive social unrest as drivers scrambled to fill their tanks (Wall Street Journal, August 19, 2005). In May 2006, a diesel shortage hit Guangdong again and lasted for half a month until a 270,000 ton emergency stock of gasoline and diesel fuel were allocated to the local market by China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and China Petroleum and Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) (Xinhua News Agency, May 23, 2006). 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

 

Sydney go on your rooftops and save power for 3 million new immigrants

Sydney go on your rooftops and save power for 3 million new immigrants

The latest report “Integrated System Plan” of the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) assumes that power consumption on Australia’s East Coast will stay rather flat despite government engineered immigration resulting in a population growth of 1.5% pa. This implies a call on all existing electricity consumers to save and provide power for all newcomers.

Let’s first have a look at what is happening with power supplies.

On Monday 16th July 2018, at 18:30, in the middle of winter with a temperature of 12.6 ֯C, total NSW power demand reached almost 12 GW, 300 GW short of 12.3 MW experienced in summer on 7/1/2018 at 16:30.

NSW-power-demand-price_16Jul2018Fig 1: NSW power demand vs wholesale electricity prices

Before and during peak demands we see the spiking of electricity prices The average prices including peaks are 30% higher than the average price without the peaks.

Components_power-bill_ACCC
Fig 2: Composition of residential electricity bills
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-18/components-of-average-power-bill/10010484

The peak demand drives up the wholesale electricity component of bills for residential customers. What do Federal and State government do about it? The Feds are running an ambitious immigration program and the States are approving massive, energy consuming apartment projects.

PolyhorizonFig 3: Polyhorizon, “First highrise opens” Northern District Times 13 June 2018

These structures push up peak demand as shown in this graph of the Parramatta Council:

Parramatta_CBD_peak_electricity_demand_existing_proposedFig 4: Peak demand of skyscrapers

Now back to the data for the 16th July 2018. NSW black coal power generation was around 7.6 GW and power imports from Queensland and Victoria 1.9 GW. In the previous week, on Thursday 12 July 2018, imports reached a whopping 2.2 GW. It is crystal clear that NSW is the Premier energy guzzler State in Australia and utterly dependent on power (and also gas) from neighbouring States.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Saudi Arabia was supposed to pump almost 14 mb/d in 2018

Saudi Arabia was supposed to pump almost 14 mb/d in 2018

Trump_tweet_Saudi_pump_more_30Jun2018

We have to dig a little bit into history to see the context of this remarkable tweet whereby we have to switch between events and later, delayed analysis with the benefit of hindsight.

10 years ago GW Bush visited Saudi Arabia:

President Bush stands with Saudi Prince Salman, right, brother of Saudi King Abdullah, while watching a traditional sword dance at the Al Murabba Palace and Natural History Museum in Al Janadriyah, Saudi Arabia, Tuesday, Jan. 15, 2008. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh)

Fig 2: Sword dance in January 2008
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/bob-cesca/president-bush-shouldnt-p_b_81998.html

15 Jan 2008
“I will say to him [King Abdullah] that, ‘If it’s possible, your majesty, consider what high prices is doing to one of your largest customers,’” Bush said. “In other words, the worst thing that can happen to an oil-producing nation is that the price of oil causes the economy to slow down, because that will inevitably lead to fewer purchases [of oil].”
https://abcnews.go.com/Nightline/Politics/story?id=4136209&page=1

The above ABC News story includes a reference to an interview which co-anchor Terry Moran had with Bush who noted: “If they don’t have a lot of additional oil to put on the market, it is hard to ask somebody to do something they may not be able to do.”

The original video link is broken but the wording has been documented by Gail the Actuary (Atlanta, Georgia) in this Oildrum post.

Obviously, Bush had realized what was going on. 3 years earlier he had already tried it, when oil prices went through the $50 mark.

26 Apr 2005
CRAWFORD, Tex., April 25 – President Bush discussed the surge in oil prices with Crown Prince Abdullah of Saudi Arabia on Monday, but focused on a plan by the Saudis to increase their oil-pumping capacity over the next decade rather than on any short-term efforts to bring prices down.

Saudi Arabia’s plan, which it began discussing publicly weeks ago, calls for spending up to $50 billion to increase its maximum sustainable production capacity to 12.5 million barrels a day by 2009, and to 15 million in the subsequent decade, from about 10.8 million barrels now. The Saudis are currently pumping about 9.5 million barrels a day.

https://www.nytimes.com/2005/04/26/world/middleeast/bush-and-saudi-prince-discuss-high-oil-prices-in-ranch.html

This was the plan:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Peak oil in Asia Pacific (part 1)

Peak oil in Asia Pacific (part 1)

This post uses data released by the BP Statistical Review in June 2018

https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html

Oil production seems to have left its bumpy 6 year long (2010-2015) plateau of 8.4 mb/d and is now back to 2004 levels of 7.9 mb/d, a decline of 6% over 2 years.

Asia_oil_production_1965-2017Fig 1: Oil production in Asia –Pacific

Asia_incr-oil_production_2004-2017Fig 2: Incremental oil production

Base production is the sum of the minimum production levels in each country during the period under consideration. Incremental production is the production above that base production. In this way we clearly see that the peak was shaped by China, sitting on a declining wedge of all other Asian countries together. Note that growing production in Thailand and India could not stop that decline. Now let’s look at the other side of the coin, consumption:

Asia_oil_consumption_1965-2017Fig 3: Asia’s oil consumption growth

There has been a relentless increase in consumption since the mid 80s. The growth rate after the financial crisis in 2008 was an average of 3% pa.

China_oil_consumption_growth_2000-17Fig 4: Chinese oil consumption growth rates

Chinese annual oil consumption growth rates have been quite variable between 2% and a whopping 16% in 2004 which contributed to high oil prices. Fig 4 also shows there is little correlation between GDP growth and oil consumption growth (statistical problems?). There is nothing in this graph that could tell us that the Chinese economy has a consistent trend to become less dependent on oil. In the years since 2011, oil consumption growth was around 60% of GDP growth.

Let’s compare China with the US. China’s oil consumption is catching up fast with US consumption.

Comparison_oil_prod-cons_US-China_1965-2017Fig 5: Oil production and consumption: US vs China

On current trends, China’s oil consumption would reach US consumption levels of 20 mb/d in just 14 years.

Comparison_oil-im[ports_US-China_2000-17Fig 6: US and Chinese net oil imports

Contrary to misinformation by the media, the US is still a net importer of oil. Even blind Freddy can see that there will be intense competition for oil on global markets.

Asia_oil_production_consumption_2005-2017_fill_in-2037Fig 7: Oil supply gap for the Asia Pacific

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

Peak oil in Venezuela: El Furrial oil field

Peak oil in Venezuela: El Furrial oil field

We see the impact of the conventional oil peak in Venezuela. As an example let’s look at the El-Furrial field.

Autopista-Caracas

Fig 1: Not La-Hora-Zero (yet) but low voter turn-out for the May 20 Maduro election
http://800noticias.com/foto-caracas-desolada-este-domingo-en-pleno-proceso-electoralhttps://twitter.com/eutrafico

Location

Where is El Furrial?

It is located 30 km west of the capital Maturin of the State of Monogas (named after a 19th century president, population 1 million) in the North East corner of Venezuela.

Furrial_Maturin_Monagas

Fig 2: Location of El Furrial

Geology

East_Venezuela

Fig 3: Geological setting
http://www.searchanddiscovery.com/documents/2009/10202chatellier/poster

Furrial-trend_map_3Dview_2009

Fig 4: Map and 3D view of 3 fields

Exploration on the northern flank of the East Venezuela basin started in 1978. In 1986, discovery well FUL-1 penetrated 276 m of net oil sandstone and produced up to 7300 bbl of 26° API oil per day. El Furrial turned out to be a giant oil field (6×14 km at 14,000 ft) and 4 years later in 1990 reserves were estimated at 1.2 Gb

In 1999 PDVSA estimated following production profile for the 3 neighbouring fields of El Furrial, Santa Barbara and Carito with a peak around 2006

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Update on Australian oil import vulnerability May 2018

Update on Australian oil import vulnerability May 2018

Iran_crude_oil_loadings_Jan2016-Mar2018

iran-oil-export-destinations-data

How well is Australia prepared? The Turnbull government has just started yet another fuel security review. Similar efforts in previous Energy Security Assessments and Senate Inquiries resulted in little action (see earlier articles on this website below). In fact, the government’s latest Budget 2018 contains numerous projects in oil dependent infrastructure which lowers fuel security.

Roads get $4.5bn in Australia budget but rail spending forced to wait
8/5/2018
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/may/08/australia-federal-budget-2018-road-rail-spending-infrastructure-highways

Minister for the Environment and Energy

Fuel Security Review

7 May 2018

The Turnbull Government will assess Australia’s liquid fuel security to help deliver affordable and reliable energy.

Liquid fuel, such as petrol, diesel and jet fuel, accounts for 37 per cent of Australia’s energy use, including 98 per cent of transport needs.

Over the past two years, we have been focused on securing reliable and affordable electricity and gas. It is time now to consider Australia’s liquid fuel security.

The assessment is the prudent and proper thing to do to make sure we aren’t complacent. It should not be construed as Australia having a fuel security problem.

The comprehensive assessment will look at how fuel is supplied and used in Australia, including our resilience to withstand disruptions both overseas and in Australia.

We have not experienced a significant disruption to fuels supplies since the OPEC oil crises in the 1970s, but there is no room to be complacent.

Australia’s liquid fuel supply increasingly depends on overseas sources and relies on market forces to maintain reliability and affordability. The assessment will identify whether the Government should take further steps to ensure Australia’s domestic fuel supply is reliable.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

NSW fuel consumption and high immigration not compatible with CO2 reduction pathways

NSW fuel consumption and high immigration not compatible with CO2 reduction pathways

On 12/4/2018 a briefing session of the Greater Sydney Commission (GSC) on recently released planning documents
https://www.greater.sydney/greater-sydney-region-plan

took place in the Parramatta Novotel. According to the GSC establishment Act 2015 No 56 one of 9 principal objectives is:

(e) to encourage development that is resilient and takes into account natural hazards,
https://www.legislation.nsw.gov.au/acts/2015-57.pdf

The term “resilient” for the purpose of this legislation is not defined elsewhere in the act. According to the Oxford Dictionary resilient is being “able to withstand or recover quickly from difficult conditions”  https://en.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/resilient

Note that CO2 emissions are not mentioned in this act.

Two of the most “difficult conditions” are oil supplies and climate change. So the question here is:  has the Commission done any calculations to demonstrate Sydney’s resilience in this regard?

GSC_Panel

8m_Sydney_Rod_Simpson

30_min_city_Tim_Raimond

Structure_INSW_Kirsty_Allen
Fig 4: Recommendations on energy
https://insw-sis.visualise.today/documents/INSW_2018SIS_BuildingMomentum.pdf

In Q&A questions had to be submitted in writing:
My question was: “In which document can I find your energy calculations? How much oil, gas and coal will Sydney need in 10, 20 years? Have emission calculations been done? Has resource consumption as a function of alternative immigration scenarios been calculated?”

The host (Craig) sorted and selected the questions. He left out the immigration related part of my question and replaced it with: “And how about resource consumption?” This shows the GSC does not want an immigration debate because it would practically put in question their whole perpetual growth planning.

The Commissioner for Environment, Rod Simpson, answered:

“Good question. So we have actually got a publication where we are looking at the actual energy demand, the water demand across Sydney up on the web. So I encourage you to look at that.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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Olduvai
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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Olduvai III: Cataclysm
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