China peak diesel
Fig 1: Aljazeera video on truck lines October 2021. Shortages could last for months
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sy_uiSlgbIA
BBC reporting:
China rations diesel amid fuel shortages
29/10/21
Petrol stations in many parts of China have begun rationing diesel amid rising costs and falling supplies.
Some truck drivers are having to wait entire days to refuel, according to posts on social media site Weibo.
China is currently in the midst of a massive power crunch, as coal and natural gas shortages have closed factories and left homes without power.
And this latest issue is only likely to contribute to an ongoing global supply chain crisis, say analysts.
“The current diesel shortages seem to be affecting long distance transportation businesses which could include goods meant for markets outside of China,” said Mattie Bekink, China Director at the Economist Intelligence Unit.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-59059093
Fig 2: Comparison Chinese Diesel prices – Brent spot prices
Images of queuing trucks are in stark contrast to what we find when googling for truck sales:
Fig 3: Line-up of new trucks for the Chinatrucks website
https://www.chinatrucks.com/statistics/2020/0221/article_9181.html
Let’s have a look at statistics from JODI https://www.jodidata.org/oil/
Fig 4: China’s diesel demand, refinery output, imports and exports
China’s refinery output of diesel started to hit a ceiling of 3.5 – 3.6 mb/d in 2014. Diesel consumption is a pretty good indicator for economic activities.
Fig 5: China National Petroleum Company: Diesel, gasoline, kerosene production
CNPC’s annual reports show diesel production peaked between 2011 and 2014 at 60 million tons (1.23 mb/d), dropping thereafter to an average of 54 mt pa.
In 2018, Reuters reported:
China’s diesel demand has peaked, gasoline to peak 2025: CNPC research
18 Sep 2018
BEIJING (Reuters) – China’s diesel demand has peaked and gasoline will peak in 2025, while natural gas demand will increase over the next two decades to feed a massive gasification campaign, according to a forecast released on Tuesday by a research arm of a state energy group.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-energy-forecast-cnpc-idUSKCN1LY0Z0
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
