This Contemplation concludes my series exploring the responses of ruling elites to diminishing returns on investments in complexity. I’ve looked at: squeezing of the population (Website Medium Substack); ideological justification (Website Medium Substack); military expansion (Website Medium Substack); scapegoating (Website Medium Substack); and technological salvation (Website Medium Substack). Here I wish to synthesise the common threads that connect these responses, examine the patterns that emerge from their study, and consider what these patterns suggest for our collective future.

A Note on Terminology
For a definition of what I mean by “the ruling elite,” please see the section titled “The Ruling Elite: A Definition” in Part 4 of this series. (see: Website Medium Substack)

Spectre

A Note on Scope and Focus
Before getting too far into this Contemplation I want to acknowledge what I have deliberately avoided addressing. I have purposely focussed in a specific manner upon the dynamics of complex society collapse as a result of diminishing returns on investments in complexity. This is the framework that Joseph Tainter established in his work and that I believe offers the most powerful lens for understanding why large, complex societies get trapped in cycles of escalating complexity and why their elites respond in predictable ways once the surpluses that support a society’s complexity begin to encounter diminishing returns.

What I have not delved into is the broader and perhaps more existentially-threatening context of ecological overshoot–the degree to which our species has breached the planetary boundaries that have kept the planet’s systems within the relatively stable Holocene conditions under which our species’ large, complex societies have arisen. The symptoms of this overshoot are evident in significant resource decline, biodiversity loss, soil degradation, climate chaos, freshwater depletion, chemical pollution, ocean acidification, and the proliferation of novel entities such as plastics and radioactive material. These are the biogeophysical limits that we have transgressed at an alarming rate and continue to breach even further with each passing day.

Diminishing returns on investments in complexity and ecological overshoot are not competing explanations for our predicaments but complementary. The responses by the elite that this series has examined and that arise from diminishing returns lead to an acceleration of resource consumption and ecosystem degradation. The resource base that our societies depend upon is undermined by ecological overshoot and makes diminishing returns more severe and collapse more likely. The two dynamics reinforce each other in a vicious feedback loop.

Let me be clear here about the relationship between these two dynamics. Ecological overshoot is the fundamental driver of our predicament with diminishing returns on our investments in complexity being how overshoot manifests itself within human social systems. The responses of the elite are how the human systems react to the manifested symptom of overshoot. This matters since even if the ruling elite were to act more humanely and rationally, the underlying ecological crisis would remain. Yes, the elite responses are making matters worse and accelerating our decline, but they are not the original sin.

I’ve focussed on diminishing returns in this series because the elite responses are best understood through such a lens. The elite are not responding to ecological overshoot per se but to shrinking surpluses and the diminishing returns that overshoot helps to produce. The responses reviewed are elite attempts to maintain the complexity that supports them in the face of declining returns regardless of the underlying causes of such returns.

How collapse unfolds is best understood through these responses. A very different transition would occur should a society decide to simplify voluntarily as opposed to the typical doubling down on complexity that invariably results in collapse. A voluntary simplification might preserve more of what is worth preserving, whereas the latter is likely to be far more chaotic, violent, and destructive.

Perhaps I will explore the ecological dimension in greater depth in future Contemplations, and what it means for any path forward. This series, however, has tried to illuminate the human dimension of collapse via how the elite respond to the shrinking surpluses that sustain their power, and why their responses inevitably accelerate the decline they are attempting to forestall.

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The Common Threads: What Connects These Responses
A pattern seems to have emerged when societies encounter diminishing returns on their investments in complexity: the elite respond in predictable ways. These responses are not independent strategies chosen at random but a pattern of behaviour that appears to emerge with remarkable regularity across time and societies.

The First Thread: Rationality Within Irrationality
From the perspective of the ruling elite, each response is quite rational. Needed revenue is raised through extractive mechanisms. Legitimacy is maintained via ideology. The acquisition of resources is carried out via military expansion. Blame is deflected by scapegoating easy targets. Salvation is promised by way of technology. These are not viewed as irrational in isolation. The irrationality of them arises with their cumulative impact: each consumes resources that could be better used in addressing the underlying issue of diminishing returns, and they each lead to new problems requiring further problem-solving responses.

This may be the core insight of Tainter’s work on societal collapse: a society that gets trapped in a cycle of escalating complexity tends to consume the surpluses necessary to sustain such complexity once it encounters diminishing returns on its investments. The elite responses that I’ve reviewed in this series are the mechanisms through which this trap is perpetuated. Rather than simplify, the elite double down on responses that accelerate complexity. They put into place policies and actions that end up doing the exact opposite of what should be done to help mitigate the consequences of diminishing returns: simplification.

The Second Thread: The Failure to Simplify
The most rational response to diminishing returns would be a voluntary simplification of society. This could be accomplished via: reduction of consumption; dismantling of unnecessary bureaucracies; surplus redistribution; abandoning the pursuit of economic growth; and an acceptance of lower levels of complexity that would allow for an adaptation to contracting resource availability. As I suggested in Part 1 of this series (Website Medium Substack), this type of response may actually be structurally impossible for our ruling elite since their power, wealth, and prestige derives from the complexity they would need to dismantle. Such a simplification would put an end to the structures and systems that sustain them in their positions at the top of our hierarchical social and wealth structures.

The handful of responses I’ve examined in this series are the ones consistently chosen by a society’s elite because they allow these individuals and families to maintain their positions, at least in the short term. That the responses accelerate societal decline in the long term is of no concern to the elite. They are not necessarily evil or stupid for responding in this fashion–although there is certainly some of such behaviour evident, particularly in retrospect–it’s because the simplification alternative is mostly unavailable on a structural level.

The Third Thread: The Acceleration of Decline
It’s fairly obvious that each response speeds societal decline rather than slowing or stopping it as its pursuit intends. Any resource base is depleted more quickly via extraction. Trust is lost as ideology loses its persuasiveness. Military expansion gets overextended. Society is polarised via scapegoating. Complexity grows exponentially with technology. And while each response is hoped to address the issue of diminishing returns, it actually makes the situation worse. This is the irony: elite responses to diminishing returns are meant to help maintain society, but they end up accelerating its demise as it greatly speeds up resource decline. The escape route–simplification–is unavailable to the elite since it would require them to abandon the very thing they are striving to preserve: their elite status and privileges.

The Fourth Thread: The Diminishing Returns of Responses
Diminishing returns impact each response. As resource bases shrink, extraction becomes more costly. As material conditions deteriorate, ideology loses its persuasiveness. As an empire overextends its military, expansion becomes more expensive. With each round of persecution, scapegoating creates new enemies. And with each new innovation, complexity compounds. To maintain the same level of control and revenue, the elite must escalate their responses as a result. Society thus experiences greater extraction, ideology, military expansion, scapegoating, and technology. Each increase in these responses results in the consumption of more resources and the creation of more problems leading to an acceleration of the decline the responses are meant to forestall.

It’s important here to note how closely related threads three and four above are. The diminishing returns of responses is the mechanism through which decline acceleration operates. The more elites intensify their responses, the more resources get consumed and the more problems that are created. These new problems require further intensification and the use of even more resources. Decline accelerates with each intensification. These two threads are not separate observations but aspects of a single dynamic.

The Fifth Thread: The Foreclosure of Alternatives
Pursuing alternatives to these responses is mostly foreclosed to the elite since their deployment shrinks the window of opportunity for them to choose differently. It’s more difficult to redistribute when extraction is increasing. It’s more dangerous to critique when ideology is strengthened. It’s much more humiliating to withdraw on the heels of greater military expansion. It’s next to impossible to cooperate while scapegoating is escalating. Simplification is increasingly unthinkable as salvation through technology is being pursued. These responses don’t simply fail to solve the problem they are meant to address; they make them much more difficult to address. Each response serves to lock society into a pathway that is increasingly difficult if not impossible to escape.

The Patterns: What the Historical Record Suggests
Records of the past suggest the emergence of several patterns for large, complex societies that eventually collapse.

Pattern 1: The Intensification of Responses Precedes Collapse
For every large, complex society that collapses the responses by the elite appear to intensify in the period just prior to their involuntary simplification. As agricultural yields declined, the Maya constructed more and more monuments. As fiscal crises intensified, the Romans more aggressively debased their currency. Greater numbers of minorities were persecuted in Medieval Europe just as plague and famine struck. And for our modern societies, as social trust is deteriorating, more and more investments are being made into surveillance technology. Such intensification would appear to be a sign of desperation by the elite rather than the strength they portray it as. They are doubling down on failed strategies hoping that more intense application of them will produce a different result.

Pattern 2: The Fastest Collapses Follow the Most Intense Responses
Material and written evidence also point to the conclusion that those societies with the most intense deployment of the responses examined in this series are also the ones that collapse the fastest. Those groups amongst the Maya who practised the most intense agriculture and built the most elaborate monuments were also the ones who collapsed the quickest. The collapse of the Western Roman Empire occurred over just a few generations despite it possessing the most extensive military apparatus and most complex bureaucracy. This evidence would suggest that these responses and their intensification are not protection against collapse. In fact, it suggests that such behaviour accelerates such decline. And the more resources that get funnelled towards complexity’s maintenance, the less that remain to help any form of adaptation or resilience.

Pattern 3: The Legitimacy Crisis Precedes the Material Collapse
The material collapse is actually preceded by a legitimacy crisis. Before the ability to extract resources from the masses to support complexities is lost, the ruling elite appear to lose the trust of the masses. Before their cities were abandoned the Maya kings lost their divine legitimacy. Before the Roman Empire fragmented, the emperors lost their universal authority. And now, before the material foundations of our societies have been totally lost, Modernity’s elite are losing the trust of the people. This would suggest that elite legitimacy is more fragile than our material resources. When the elite lose the trust of the population and stop believing in their right to rule, collapse becomes self-reinforcing. And once collective action can no longer be mobilised by the elite, society fragments into competing factions.

Pattern 4: The Simplification Comes After the Collapse
There is little historical evidence to support the idea that the elite choose voluntary simplification. A decline in complexity almost always follows collapse, not before. Maya cities were abandoned leading to simplification. The Roman Empire fragmented into successor states after its collapse, not before. Modernity is also likely to experience collapse prior to its simplification. This may be the real tragedy of elite responses: they do not allow for voluntary simplification and make it inevitable that it will be involuntary. This causes the collapse to be more chaotic, violent, and destructive than it would have been had the elite led a voluntary simplification.

Pattern 5: The Pattern Repeats
Across both time and culture the pattern of elite responses to diminishing returns on investments in complexity repeats. Specific forms of responses can vary–extraction from the masses, ideological justification, military expansion, domestic target scapegoating, technological salvation–but the underlying dynamic is always the same: diminishing returns are encountered on investments, elites double down on the strategies causing the issues, legitimacy is lost, and collapse follows. The pattern would seem to be structural given the repeated nature of it across different cultures in different times. It’s not simply bad luck or leadership; it’s the structural position of elites within large, complex societies. The pattern appears to repeat for virtually every society organised around complexity where elites benefit disproportionately.

Caution is warranted here. The patterns above are drawn from complex societies that have collapsed, which constitutes the vast majority–if not all–that have ever existed. Virtually every complex society has, in retrospect, undergone some degree of simplification. And most could be described as having “collapsed”–even if it took multiple generations rather than one or two, or even if successor complex societies emerged from their ashes. I don’t offer a prediction of when society will collapse via these patterns. They describe what tends to happen when societies do collapse with their value being their explanatory power, not in any claim to universality.

The Prophecies: What the Patterns Suggest for Our Future
Note that the following prophecies are not predictions in the conventional sense. I realise that it is exceedingly difficult to make predictions, especially if they’re about the future. What I offer instead are extrapolations from the patterns that appear throughout time and place. Informed conjectures, if you will, about what is likely to occur should the patterns hold. History often rhymes and sometimes does actually repeat itself in a variety of ways and to a certain extent. So what I offer are possibilities that warrant consideration not certainties about what will occur. What is in store, then, for our global, industrial civilisation if the pattern outlined above holds?

Prophecy 1: The Responses Will Intensify
I would expect the responses examined in this series to continue to intensify into the future, and exponentially so. As surpluses shrink, it is likely that extraction becomes more aggressive. As elite legitimacy fades, we can expect more strident ideological justifications. As resources become more dear, more desperate military engagements will occur. As social trust falls, domestic scapegoating will become more vicious. And as underlying societal problems worsen, more grandiose technological salvation narratives will emerge.

We can already see intensification occurring in each of these arenas. Significant increases in military spending. Hugely expanding mass surveillance. Hastening currency destruction through the increase in credit/debt vehicles. Never-ending assurances by the elite alongside endless marketing of the benefits of their policies and actions. Increasing domestic polarisation. Proliferation of salvation narratives, especially via technology, and massive investment in them. Modernity’s elite responses are certainly becoming more determined and extreme, not less.

We can actually identify specific forms that intensification will probably take depending on the context. For example, where aging populations mix with high debt (i.e., Japan, Italy, U.S.) extraction is likely to be in the form of price inflation, negative real interest rates, and increased direct and indirect taxation on the middle class. Where rising geopolitical tension is occurring (i.e., eastern Europe, the Middle East, South China Sea) military expansion and foreign scapegoating is most probable. Nations showing strong political polarisation (i.e., Brazil, U.S., India) are probably going to experience domestic scapegoating and increased cultural warfare. And, in those with strong state capacity and technological infrastructure (i.e., China, Singapore) there will likely be an intensification of social control and state surveillance. Note that these are plausible extrapolations from current trajectories, not firm predictions.

Prophecy 2: The Legitimacy Crisis Will Deepen
As material conditions continue to deteriorate I expect that the distrust that currently exists towards the ruling elite will deepen and expand. Rising populism. Declining institutional confidence. Increasing social unrest. The elite will respond as they typically do: with more ideology, scapegoating, and repression. These responses will further erode elite legitimacy. Many nations are already showing this cycle with trust in government, media, and other institutions at historic lows, and worsening. Populist movements are gaining ground. Legitimacy crises are deepening and there seems no obvious means to reverse this trend.

Prophecy 3: The Collapse Will Be Uneven
Collapse tends to be uneven with some nations/regions collapsing before others while others that are more resilient will last longer and/or adapt more successfully. Modernity will not collapse all at once; it is more likely to fragment into different pathways with different outcomes. The uneven nature of collapse will lead to new challenges. More resilient regions will experience incoming migration from collapsing ones. Chaos of the international order will occur as old certainties disappear.

Prophecy 4: The Simplification Will Be Involuntary
Voluntary simplification is impossible for the elite for the structural reasons I’ve highlighted and history shows the elite invariably avoid it. Thus, it will be involuntary and will occur after the collapse. It will be characterised by chaos, violence, and destruction. Trauma will be ever-present during the transition to a simpler world. There will be a loss of technologies, institutions, and lifestyles that we have taken for granted. It’s difficult to imagine the scale of the suffering that will occur and will be made worse by elite responses that delay and distort the transition.

Prophecy 5: The Pattern Will Continue Until It Cannot
I expect the current pattern of the elite doubling down on their responses to diminishing returns that increase and compound complexity to continue until it no longer is possible. Our surpluses will continue to be consumed until they no longer exist. Collapse will continue until it is complete. There is no exit within the system and this is the nature of the trap. The only exit exists by moving through the collapse that is inevitable. It’s not whether it will happen but how long it will take and how much damage gets done.

The Path Forward: What Can Be Done
If the patterns of the past hold–and if my prophecies are accurate–what can be done? Is there a path where the outcomes are less bad? Where some outcomes can be mitigated? None of the following will change the trajectory of collapse for they are not “solutions” to the structural issues; they are suggested responses to them. They are suggestions for what we might attempt as individuals, families, and communities when the larger systems are far beyond our control. They are modest but they are not nothing.

First: Accept the Reality of the Situation
I believe the first thing that any of us should do is accept the reality of our situation. We are on a trajectory towards collapse that cannot be avoided. There’s no policy, technology, or leader that can change this. And the responses that the elite are implementing are serving to accelerate our journey. I realise many would argue that this is defeatist but I would counter that it’s a necessary precondition for any type of meaningful response. If we pretend the situation is manageable, we will continue to invest in responses that make it worse. We can only truly prepare for collapse once we accept the reality of it.

Second: Focus on What Can Be Controlled
We next need to focus on what we can control, which is not much to be honest. We cannot control: the elite; the trajectory of Modernity; or the timing and severity of collapse. We can only control how we prepare for it at the personal, family, and community level. This will require us to develop skills that will be useful in a much simpler society and to cultivate relationships that will provide mutual support during difficult times. It will also mean reducing our dependency upon the complex systems and technologies that are going to fail as society collapses.

Third: Avoid the Traps of Elite Responses
We also must avoid the traps of the elite responses. These are not just elite strategies but are temptations we all face. Extracting resources from those around us. Clinging to ideologies that divide us. Supporting military expansion out of fear. Scapegoating those in our communities or nations that are different. Believing that more technology will save us. We must avoid these traps and instead cultivate the opposite virtues. Be generous to others. Engage in critical thinking. Cooperate with others. Show compassion. Accept limits.

Fourth: Build Alternative Communities
Modernity will not collapse all at once nor occur in all places at the same time. Fragmentations will occur along different trajectories with some communities/regions being more resilient than others. Help make your community more resilient by building simpler alternatives to today’s complex systems. Simpler lifestyles. Local economies. Direct forms of democracy. Different relationships with technology, nature, and each other. Different view of what a good life looks like. There’s no perfect alternative that will survive collapse intact. This is not the point, however. The point is to create alternatives that are likely to be more resilient, humane, and preserve what is worth preserving.

Fifth: Bear Witness
We are living through a pivotal period in human history. The global, industrial civilisation that has defined the past couple of centuries is approaching its endpoint. We can’t avoid this, but we can bear witness to it. We can: document what occurs and tell the truth about it even if it is uncomfortable; record what is being lost; preserve what can be preserved; refuse to participate in the responses implemented by the elite that obscure and distort reality. Bearing witness involves an active commitment to both truth and memory. A way of honouring what is being lost and making sure future generations–should any get through the bottleneck we’ve led ourselves into–have a record of what has happened.

Sixth: Prepare for Specific Intensifications
The five suggestions above are general in nature. There are additional intensifications that can be prepared for more specifically. The evidence suggests elite responses will intensify so it makes sense to prepare for particular forms such intensification will likely take.

Currency Debasement and Financial Repression: When surpluses shrink elites typically debase the currency. Today, we experience this as price inflation, negative real interest rates, and a steady loss of purchasing power for all who hold wealth in cash or bonds. The elite tend to be mostly protected from these through the assets they hold and that tend to appreciate with inflation: real estate, equities, and commodities.

Reducing dependency on cash savings and holding tangible assets like land, tools, equipment, precious metals, and skills that can be traded are advised. Avoid long-term debt since it is a claim on future labour and if currencies are being debased, it can be a crushing burden. Establish local exchange systems like barter networks, time banks, and local currencies that can provide resilience should national currencies fail. Acquire practical skills such as the ability to grow food or repair machines. Develop essential services that may become more valuable as currencies devalue.

Confiscation and Wealth Taxes: Framed as wealth taxes, patriotic contributions, or emergency measures, the elite will attempt to confiscate from the masses. In particular, it will be those visible and immobile assets such as land, buildings, bank accounts, and precious metals. And while they are confiscating from the masses, the elite will protect themselves by transferring their wealth into offshore assets, trusts, or other forms that will be difficult to seize.

Should you have wealth or assets to protect, do not hold them in a single jurisdiction or institution; diversify where they are held. Invest in mobile or less visible forms of wealth like skills, knowledge, and relationships; these are difficult if not impossible to confiscate compared to land, bank accounts, and precious metals. Build community resilience–through mutual aid, cooperatives, or local investment–to share wealth within a community and make it more difficult to target and more likely to be protected. Avoid conspicuous consumption since visible wealth attracts attention and increases the likelihood of confiscation.

Surveillance and Social Control: This is perhaps one of the most visible intensifications taking place. Facial recognition. Data collection. Predictive policing. Social credit systems. These technologies are popping up all over the planet, justified as necessary for security but are serving to help the elite entrench their power and suppress dissent. To counter this trend I would recommend minimising your digital footprint by using encrypted communications, virtual private networks, avoiding unnecessary data collection, and supporting platforms that respect privacy. Surveillance tends to be most effective when people are isolated so build trusted local networks. Be opaque where and when appropriate as not everything needs to be shared and some activities are best conducted quietly and locally. Support organisations that defend civil liberties, particularly in light of narrowing spaces for dissent.

Military Expansion and Geopolitical Conflict: This intensification is already well underway with the US and China engaged in a new cold war, regional conflicts occurring such as those in the Middle East, proxy wars proliferating around the globe, regional powers arming themselves, and the risk of direct conflict between major powers increasing by the day. While there is little that can be done to change this, we can choose to avoid areas that are likely to be conflict zones or leave one if it looks like things are headed that way. Build cross-border relationships with those in other countries or cultures to counteract the dehumanisation that helps to fuel geopolitical conflict. Prepare for the disruption that accompanies war such as interruptions to supply chains, communications, and financial systems. Stockpile basic supplies. Encourage local food production, water procurement, and regional shelter needs. Refuse to participate in the propaganda that is sure to flood our societies, especially the narratives used to justify brutal actions and demonise others. Critical thought will be essential.

Technological Salvation and the Seduction of False Hope: The most seductive of the elite responses may be the technological salvation narrative one, which is why it is the hardest to resist. The promises abound around new technologies and their ability to rescue us: AI will solve climate change, gene editing will eliminate disease, and space colonisation provides an escape hatch from a dying planet. These salvation narratives are promoted by the powerful and wealthy and embraced by the public for their hope. These promises–as I show in my “We’re Saved!” series–are mostly illusory, serving to justify the continued accumulation of wealth and power by a few while deflecting attention from the structural causes of our predicament. They are a form of false hope whose pursuit is accelerating our collapse and leading to a more severe outcome.

Instead of accepting without skepticism the promises made, ask: who benefits from the narrative, what are the costs, what problems will its implementation create, and who is left behind by its use? Resist the temptations of technology and its quick, painless fix promises. There’s no solution in more complexity; in fact, the opposite is needed. Develop low-tech skills and knowledge. Learn how to produce your own food, repair shelters, heal and comfort the sick, and resolve conflicts without the use of technologies that are sure to fail with time.

When I say low-tech here, I am not referring to the complex and mass-produced industrial technologies our world is flooded with. Technology that requires global supply chains, rare-earth minerals, and significant energy inputs are not the technologies we should be pursuing in our quest for resiliency and self-sufficiency. I am referring to hand tools, traditional skills and knowledge, simple mechanical systems, and locally-sourced materials. A well-built compost system. A hand-powered water pump. A rainwater catchment system. Technologies that can be maintained and repaired locally, and without dependence upon our industrial infrastructure are the type I mean and that can actually build resilience rather than undermine it as so much of our technology does.

Decrease your dependence upon the complex, global systems and their supply chains that dominate and leave you vulnerable; instead, build local resilience. The tech narrative we are repeatedly hearing obscures the biogeophysical limits that we have breached at a time when we need to engage with ecological reality, face the limits that exist directly, and accept that there are problems that have no technological fix.

Seventh: Consider Collective Action Where Possible
The six pathways above are fundamentally individual and local, and appropriate given the analysis I have engaged in. Systemic change is almost certainly impossible given the elite are structurally incapable of leading a simplification of societies and the masses lack the means to force it even should a majority of them wish it. There may be, however, some types of larger, collective action that are worthwhile and that some wish to pursue. I do not offer these as “solutions” to our predicament, nor do I believe they will prevent collapse. At best they may help to mitigate the worst of the consequences, build some solidarity, and preserve what is worth preserving.

Local Political Engagement: While international and national politics are mostly beyond the control of individuals and communities, local politics may still offer some democratic accountability. Participating at this level could help to build local resilience. Push for direct democracy as opposed to the “representative” form we’ve been sold.

Mutual Aid Networks: Creating and engaging in reciprocal support systems is another means of building local resilience. Such networks can lead to community members helping each other to meet basic needs, build trust, strengthen social bonds, and provide support during times of crisis.

Cooperative and Community Enterprises: Support economic organisations that aim to keep wealth local, make decision-making more directly democratic, and ensure local surpluses are shared. These are worthwhile endeavours to support and far more resilient and equitable in comparison to corporate capitalism.

Land Trusts and Community Food Systems: Creating systems that can secure access to land and food independent of global supply chains or corporate ownership can provide resilience and local food security, and perhaps model a different and local type of economy.

Solidarity Networks Across Differences: Several of the elite responses are designed specifically to polarise society and prevent coalitions that could challenge elite authority and positions atop our social hierarchies. Building solidarity across the divides that get encouraged by the elite is another form of resistance, and it’s a practical necessity for any form of collective action.

These handful of actions will not prevent collapse; they may not even survive it, but they are worthwhile endeavours to help build resilient and bonded communities. The difficult times ahead will need such communities, and they are a stark reminder to the elite that there are alternatives to their system.

A Note on Realism
Not one of these preparations is going to guarantee safety or successful adaptation. Elite response intensification is likely going to overwhelm individual and community-level preparations in most cases. Preparations, however, are not about guarantees; it’s about increasing the probability of survival, preserving what can be preserved, and maintaining dignity and agency in the face of what are overwhelming forces.

There’s little point in seeking a perfect solution since we face predicaments that can at best be mitigated and perhaps adapted to. Do what can be done based on where you are and what you have. And do it with others who are attempting the same.

A Note on the Limits of Preparation
Here I wish to acknowledge a critique from a reader of my last Contemplation in this series, and one which deserves more than just a passing response. His point that growth is structurally required for Modernity is not lost on me. Growth is necessary to service the ongoing expansion of debt, to access our increasingly degraded resources, and to maintain the level of complexity we have in order to keep our lights on. Any abandonment of growth would not make us immediately better off and it would very likely make things worse, and very quickly. So, where I argued that abandoning growth and conquest could leave us better off, I need to clarify that I was speaking from a long-term perspective–the perspective that elevates the biosphere and future generations relative to our current needs and situation; a sacrifice, if you will, of the now for the possibility of a livable future. I certainly was not suggesting that a choice to stop growing now would result in a soft landing for Modernity. There is no soft landing from the present. Growth is what is driving our path closer and closer to the cliff edge; abandoning it now would most certainly send us over. Continuing to pursue it, however, is leading to a higher fall with an even more devastating impact after collapse–possibly an extinction-level event as some argue.

There were also some legitimate questions asked about preparation that cannot be fully answered by me. Questions that raise some real concerns and that I have no satisfying responses to. For example: How does one defend against those who haven’t prepared? How does one prepare when the timing or outcome of collapse is unknown? Will the tools required for a simpler life be available or repairable post collapse? All I can say in response to these valid questions is that I’m not asserting preparations will save anyone; I’m arguing that such actions may improve the odds, at the margins–this is more or less what my “warning/advice” statement that I’ve included at the end of each Contemplation for the past couple of years is suggesting. A community with some basic preparations is better positioned to absorb some of the coming disruptions as opposed to one that has made no move towards self-sufficiency and resilience. Will such preparations be enough to get to the other side of the transition? Likely not, especially since we have no idea how collapse will unfold but I, personally, would rather have some preparation ready than not.

Finally, it is also not lost on me that even low-tech adaptations have consequences for our ecological systems and depend upon resources that may be increasingly difficult to access; or that some of our modern conveniences will not last forever. These points are important to keep in mind. No amount of preparation can overcome their reality and “solve” them. Preparations, in my thinking, may help some to navigate the transition regardless of how bleak it may be. And, again, as I state in my “warning/advice” statement, that’s perhaps all we can hope for.

Conclusion: Living in the Trap
The responses being implemented by the ruling elite are part of the system we inhabit and not external to us, thus we exist within the trap. As such we are complicit in the drawing down of societal surpluses to maintain our complex systems and delay simplification. We are all trapped within a system consuming itself.

Being trapped does not necessitate passivity; we can choose how we respond to the trap that ensnares us. We can choose to see clearly, prepare for probable consequences, avoid temptations, build resilience and alternatives, and bear witness. Even as the systems around us fall apart, we can live with integrity, compassion, and meaning. This is not necessarily a path to salvation but one that reflects honesty and living well with the time we have.

A Final Reflection: The Wisdom of Limits
The ancient Greeks called it hubris–the excessive pride that results in one’s downfall–and all the responses by the elites to diminishing returns are forms of it. They are attempting to overcome limits that cannot be overcome, refusing to accept the constraints those limits impose. An understanding of limits would entail a recognition that there are many things beyond our control and that we live in a world of finitude where because resources are limited growth cannot continue forever. It would also include the awareness that collapse is a natural part of life’s cycle and that humans are not masters of the universe but one of many species participating in a massive, complex process where we have little to no control.

The wisdom that accompanies this understanding is absent amongst most of our species, especially our elite who with their responses to diminishing returns demonstrate an attempt to deny and overcome biogeophysical limits. They promise that limits can be overcome, growth can continue forever, and that collapse is a past phenomenon that no longer impacts us. This is a false hope and one that usually results in deeper despair for those aware of natural science, our history, and the ever-closer endgame.

Any path forward requires us to reject false hopes and to discover the wisdom that comes with an acceptance of limits. Once we accept that we are finite beings living upon a finite world we can live accordingly. This can be liberating in that it allows us to live in accordance with reality rather than the illusion that has been constructed through fantastical stories and mythologies.

Maybe living in truth with an acceptance of our limits where we can find meaning beyond the pursuit of more is the most important thing we can do moving forward.

Best of luck to each and every one of you on this journey.

Special Offer

If you have made it to the end of this Contemplation, I have an offer for you. Send me an email at olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com requesting a copy of Part 1 of my trilogy and I’ll fire off a PDF of it to you for your “fictional” reading pleasure. If you like the beginning of the tale, please consider ordering the trilogy here: Purchase Book(s) — Olduvai.ca.

What is going to be my standard WARNING/ADVICE going forward and that I have reiterated in various ways before this:

Only time will tell how this all unfolds but there’s nothing wrong with preparing for the worst by ‘collapsing now to avoid the rush’ and pursuing self-sufficiency. By this I mean removing as many dependencies on the Matrix as is possible and making do, locally. And if one can do this without negative impacts upon our fragile ecosystems or do so while creating more resilient ecosystems, all the better.

Building community (maybe even just household) resilience to as high a level as possible seems prudent given the uncertainties of an unpredictable future. There’s no guarantee it will ensure ‘recovery’ after a significant societal stressor/shock but it should increase the probability of it and that, perhaps, is all we can ‘hope’ for from its pursuit.

If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my “fictional” novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the “profits” of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).

Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running).

If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing.

Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99

Feel free to throw in a “tip” on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps…

https://paypal.me/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US

If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.

You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.