IEA: US$ 40 oil means 3 mp/d less oil by 2020
You want $40 oil? Yes, please. But according to the World Energy Outlook 2015 of the International Energy Agency, recently released in London, that would mean 3 mb/d less US tight (shale) oil by 2020. That’s about 4% of global crude production.
Fly less and drive less.
Fig 1: Slide from the WEO 2015 presentation
http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/media/weowebsite/2015/151110_WEO2015_presentation.pdf
Let’s put that into a graph for the $50 scenario:
Fig 2: US monthly crude production
The graph shows a 4 mb/d increase in US crude oil production, mainly tight oil from Texas (Eagle Ford, Permian), North Dakota (Bakken) and Niobrara (Colorado, Wyoming) between 2011 and 2015. The other States plus the Gulf of Mexico and Alaska remained on an undulating production plateau. The red production line descends by 2.5 mb/d over 5 years to 2020, with an oil price of $50 a barrel (dashed black line)
The EIA data for the above graph are from here:
US crude oil
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPUS2&f=M
WTI oil price
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=rwtc&f=m
The latest drilling productivity report from here
http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/
shows some details about peaking tight oil production
Bakken
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