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We’re Supposed To Be Done Finding New Oil and Gas. We’re Not.

April 11, 2024

We’re Supposed To Be Done Finding New Oil and Gas. We’re Not.

We’re Supposed To Be Done Finding New Oil and Gas. We’re Not.

Oil and gas reserves discovered and approved just since 2021 would add an entire year of China’s emissions to the atmosphere. That’s according to a new analysis from Carbon Brief, using Global Energy Monitor Data, and boy is it grim.

A total of 14 billion tons of carbon dioxide are locked up in the new reserves. About 8 billion of that is in brand new discoveries just in 2022 and 2023, with the other 6 billion from previously known reserves newly approved in the last few years. This fossil fuel bonanza is spread around the world, with some areas with brand new or burgeoning industries like Guyana and Namibia playing a big role.

This is not how it is supposed to go right now. In 2021, researchers published a study in Nature that estimated nearly 60 percent of oil and fossil gas needed to remain tucked away in the ground in order to have a chance at limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, the ambitious (and now likely lost) target set forth in the 2015 Paris Agreement. And that was the oil and gas we knew about then.

“Furthermore, we estimate that oil and gas production must decline globally by 3 per cent each year until 2050,” those researchers added. That’s, uh, not what’s happening so far.

Also in 2021, the International Energy Agency released its first “Net Zero by 2050” roadmap, laying out the pathway to actually decarbonize the world’s economy. In it, a familiar refrain: “Beyond projects already committed as of 2021, there are no new oil and gas fields approved for development in our pathway.”

Then, last year, from Oil Change International, an update: …

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Harsh Truth: We’re Using More Oil Than Ever

November 25, 2023

The Harsh Truth: We’re Using More Oil Than Ever

In this age of climate crisis, the world is consuming more crude than ever. Peak oil demand? Not yet. Maybe one day, perhaps even soon, around 2030. For now, however, the global economy still runs on oil.

It will take a while before governments certify it, but every piece of data points in the very same direction: In the past few weeks, global oil demand has surpassed the monthly peak set in 2019 before the Covid-19 pandemic.Expressed in barrels a day, the fresh record high in global oil consumption totals about 102.5 million, likely hit in the last few weeks in July and above the 102.3 million of August 2019. Picture this: We use enough crude to fill about 6,500 Olympic-size swimming pools every day. More than a third of those swimming pools would be needed to quench the thirst of two countries: the US and China.

It’s not unexpected.  The International Energy Agency, which compiles benchmark supply and demand statistics, has anticipated it for months. It was just a question of timing, since oil demand surges during the northern hemisphere summer, when millions of European and American families guzzle gasoline and jet fuel during their holidays. The wholesale cost of refined products, such as gasoline, is surging too.

Granted, the new demand milestone is just one flimsy data point. Global oil consumption statistics are routinely revised, and a final figure probably won’t be set in stone until next year, or even 2025. The margin of error is relatively wide, too, probably at least 1 million barrels a day. But experience indicates that demand is typically revised higher, rather than lower.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

World’s Electric Grids Incapable of Supporting Renewable Energy Goals: Agency

October 20, 2023

World’s Electric Grids Incapable of Supporting Renewable Energy Goals: Agency

While investments in renewable energy have doubled since 2010, power grid funding has remained ‘static.’
Electricity grid capacity available in the world isn’t keeping pace with the rapid growth of “clean energy” technologies, possibly putting governments’ climate goals at risk, according to a recent report by the International Energy Agency (IEA).
In order to achieve climate goals set by global governments, more than 80 million kilometers (49.7 million miles) of electric grids have to be added or refurbished by 2040, which is the “equivalent of the entire existing global grid,” according to the Oct. 17 IEA report. Even though “electrification and renewables deployment are both picking up pace,” there is a risk of the clean energy transition stalling due to a lack of “adequate grids to connect the new electricity supply with the demand.”

“At least 3,000 gigawatts (GW) of renewable power projects, of which 1,500 GW are in advanced stages, are waiting in grid connection queues—equivalent to five times the amount of solar PV and wind capacity added in 2022,” the report noted.

“This shows grids are becoming a bottleneck for transitions to net zero emissions.”

While investments in renewable energy such as solar and wind power, electric vehicles (EV), and heat pumps have been “increasing rapidly”—almost doubling since 2010—the investment in power grids has remained “static” at around $300 billion annually, it said.

The 2015 Paris Climate Accords agreed to hold the global increase in average temperature to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Delays in establishing the necessary power grid could put this target “out of reach,” the report stated.

IEA presented a “Grid Delay Case” scenario in which the modernization of existing power grids and the setting up of new grids don’t happen in a timely manner…

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Europe’s Energy Crisis Is Reshaping Geopolitics

December 7, 2022

Europe’s Energy Crisis Is Reshaping Geopolitics

  • Europe’s energy crisis is fueling a major geopolitical reconfiguration.
  • The IEA is warning that we are currently living through a “global energy crisis of unprecedented depth and complexity,” and that “there is no going back to the way things were.”
  • The financial vulnerabilities emanating out of Europe threaten to destabilize not only some of the more indebted European countries, but also developing nations and net energy importers around the world.

Europe’s energy crisis is about far more than just energy. It’s also the impetus for a major geopolitical reconfiguration at a global scale. No one knows exactly what the world’s energy and political landscapes will look like when the dust settles (which, by the way, will be years from now) but it’s guaranteed that it will be markedly different than it was the day before Russia – historically the largest exporter of oil and natural gas to the European Union by a long shot – illegally invaded Ukraine.

This year’s annual energy outlook from the International Energy Agency (IEA) warns that we are currently living through a “global energy crisis of unprecedented depth and complexity,” and that “there is no going back to the way things were” before the unprecedented dual shocks of the novel coronavirus pandemic and Russia’s war in Ukraine. Together, these events have already reconfigured the energy trade worldwide, but the shockwaves to the global economy are just getting started.

Many look at Europe’s current energy deficit as a kind of heroism, as the European Union has taken a huge economic hit in order to impose energy sanctions on the Kremlin – the one kind of sanction that could really cripple the Russian economy in the hopes of ending the war in Ukraine. “In the struggle to help Ukraine and resist Russian aggression, Europe has displayed unity, grit and a principled willingness to bear enormous costs,” the Economist recently reported.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

IEA Head Warns “Wild West” Energy Scenario Could Unravel Europe

September 26, 2022

IEA Head Warns “Wild West” Energy Scenario Could Unravel Europe

The unity of EU member states could be in jeopardy as a dark winter fast approaches set to trigger a ‘continental scramble’ for energy resources. European countries would be in a “wild west scenario” in their attempt to pursue energy security which would result in souring relations with neighbors and cause worsening fuel and power shortages with risks of social unrest, warned Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency, who was quoted by the Financial Times.

Birol spoke Thursday in an interview at the inaugural Global Clean Energy Action Forum in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, when he explained the energy crisis threatens to shatter EU unity as countries could restrict or stop trading energy resources with neighbors to ensure their own energy security.

“The implications will be very bad for energy, very bad for the economy, but extremely bad politically … if Europe fails this test in energy, it can go beyond energy implications,” Birol said

The head of the Paris-based watchdog energy group was very straightforward about the two possible scenarios:

“EU and members will work in solidarity, supporting each other . . . or there is another scenario, if everybody is for himself.”

Meanwhile, earlier this month, the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, was firm in her state of the union address that the unity of EU member states will prevail through this energy crisis.

But there has already been a breakdown in unity among some member states, as FT explains:

Norway’s Nordic neighbours last month blasted Oslo for “selfish” behaviour as it considered pausing electricity exports while it refilled its hydroelectric reservoirs. 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

IEA Chief: Europe Must Cut Gas Usage 20% To Survive Winter

July 22, 2022

IEA Chief: Europe Must Cut Gas Usage 20% To Survive Winter

After calling on all member states to reduce gas consumption by 15% in the face of the threat of a complete Russian gas cutoff, the IEA says the European Union will need to cut even more in order to get through the winter.

“Even if there is no single accident… #Europe still needs to reduce its gas consumption about 20% compared to today in order to have safe and normal winter months,” IEA chief Fatih Birol said, issuing what he called a “red alert” for energy markets.

The short-term issue with the Nord Stream 1 pipeline may have been resolved, Birol told CNN, but “it’s too early to be happy about this”.

The amount Europe is receiving now from Russia is only about one-third of what it was receiving prior to the force majeure, and the IEA chief warned that even that reduced flow “can be cut anytime”.

After a 10-day pause for regular maintenance, Russian gas flows via Nord Stream resumed on Thursday morning, with orders for gas set at around 40% of Nord Stream’s capacity, the level from before the maintenance after Russia slashed flows in mid-June. Flows early on Thursday were at around 21.5 GWh, compared to 30GWh prior to the start of maintenance on July 11th, and compared to 70 GWh before Russia reduced supplies by 60% on June 13th.

On Wednesday, the European Commission unveiled measures for the bloc to conserve gas to pre-empt a Russian cutoff, asking member states to reduce consumption by 15% until next spring.

According to Birol, this won’t be enough to ensure a smooth winter for Europe, and there is no alternative to consumption reductions.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Motorway speed limit reduction and Sunday driving ban to tackle reliance on oil suggested

July 15, 2022

Motorway speed limit reduction and Sunday driving ban to tackle reliance on oil suggested

Included in the plan is a ban on driving cars in cities every Sunday, as well as a suggestion to cut speed limits on motorways by 6mph (PA)

Included in the plan is a ban on driving cars in cities every Sunday, as well as a suggestion to cut speed limits on motorways by 6mph (PA)

Reducing the speed limit on motorways and banning Sunday driving are ideas suggested to cut Britain’s reliance on oil.

The International Energy Agency has proposed a ten-point plan to reduce global demand by 2.7 million barrels a day.

Included in the plan is a ban on driving cars in cities every Sunday, as well as a suggestion to cut speed limits on motorways by 6mph.

Also included in the plan is working from home three days a week, and using high-speed night trains instead of planes where possible.

Worcester News:

These are the other suggestions put forward by the IEA:

  • Reinforce the adoption of electric and more efficient vehicles
  • Avoid business air travel where alternative options exist
  • Promote efficient driving for freight trucks and delivery of goods
  • Increase car sharing practices to reduce fuel use
  • Alternative private car access to roads in large cities
  • Make public transport cheaper

Petrol prices rose every day last month as drivers were hit by a new record monthly hike.

RAC analysis shows the average cost of a litre of fuel at UK forecourts rose by 16.6p last month, from 174.8p to 191.4p.

That is the highest monthly increase in records dating back to 2000.

The surge in prices added more than £9 to the cost of filling a typical 55-litre family petrol car.

The RAC’s fuel spokesman Simon Williams said: “The rate at which pump prices have been rising over the last four weeks is hard to comprehend.

“Not a day in June went by when petrol prices didn’t go up, even though the price retailers pay to buy in fuel went down.

“There’s no doubt that drivers are getting an incredibly raw deal at the pumps at a time when the cost-of-living crisis is being felt ever more acutely.”

Worst Of Global Energy Crisis Could Be Approaching, IEA Head Warns

July 12, 2022

Worst Of Global Energy Crisis Could Be Approaching, IEA Head Warns

The bullish narrative for oil markets builds as the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) and a new Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) report, all separately, warned Tuesday about a further global squeeze on energy supplies.

IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol told the audience at a global energy forum in Sydney that “the world has never witnessed such a major energy crisis in terms of its depth and its complexity.” 

Birol continued and offered this apocalyptic warning:

“We might not have seen the worst of it yet … this is affecting the entire world.”

He explained that the global energy system is fracturing, and many factors contribute to this, including geopolitics, such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

“And as a result, we see that the entire energy system is going through a crisis. 

“Oil, natural gas, coal, and electricity prices, they’re all going up of the roof. Why? Very simple. Russia, the country that invaded Ukraine, is the largest exporter of oil and natural gas.”

Birol also said winter in Europe would be “very, very difficult,” adding this may have severe implications for the global economy.

Besides Birol’s warning, OPEC’s first oil-market outlook for 2023 suggests no relief, and crude output would need to increase even though many of its 15 members are already pumping at or near full capacity. OPEC expects global oil demand growth to exceed supplies by 1 million b/d next year.

The outlook for 2023 indicates supply strains will persist, and increasing production is desperately needed (something the group could have trouble with because of years of underinvestment and political instability).

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

IEA: Europe Will Have To Cut Gas Usage By Nearly One-Third

June 30, 2022

IEA: Europe Will Have To Cut Gas Usage By Nearly One-Third

In the first quarter of next year, the countries of the European Union will have to cut their usage of natural gas by up to 30% in preparation for a complete stoppage of Russian gas flows, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

IEA Director Fatih Birol on Tuesday said that “a complete cut-off of Russian gas supplies to Europe could result in storage fill levels being well below average ahead of the winter, leaving the EU in a very vulnerable position.”

“In the current context, I wouldn’t exclude a complete cut-off of gas exports to Europe from Russia,” he stated.

Citing technical issues related to the Nord Stream pipeline, Russia earlier in June cut flows of gas to Germany by 60%.

Plans to boost natural gas storage filling in Europe would not withstand a full Russian cut-off if it were to happen between now and the fourth quarter of this year.

By the first of November, the European Union should have its gas storage filled to 90%; however, a complete Russian cut-off would reduce that significantly, leading to another surge in natural gas prices, which have already tripled year-on-year, according to Bloomberg, citing figures from the ICE Endex.

European natural gas prices remained steady from Monday to Tuesday, in part due to a resumption of the flow of Russian gas through the TurkStream pipeline, which was undergoing maintenance. The pipeline has a 31.5-billion-cubic-meter capacity, Bloomberg reports.

On Tuesday, Dutch front-month gas futures dropped 0.2% at the close.

Also steadying natural gas prices in Europe on Tuesday were new estimations for demand, which could see a drop due to sunnier weather that can better support solar energy.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

IEA: Europe Should Prepare For Complete Russian Gas Shutdown

June 23, 2022

IEA: Europe Should Prepare For Complete Russian Gas Shutdown

  • IEA chief Birol said that Europe should prepare for a complete suspension of Russian gas supplies.
  • Birol advised European governments to keep nuclear power stations running and take other contingency measures.
  • Germany, Austria, and the Netherlands are restarting coal power plants.

Europe should prepare for a complete suspension of Russian natural gas deliveries, the head of the International Energy Agency told the Financial Times in an interview.

“Europe should be ready in case Russian gas is completely cut off,” Fatin Birol told the FT. “The nearer we are coming to winter, the more we understand Russia’s intentions,” he added. “I believe the cuts are geared towards avoiding Europe filling storage, and increasing Russia’s leverage in the winter months.”

As a means of countering the worst effects of such a scenario, Birol advised European governments to keep nuclear power stations running and take other contingency measures, too. These other contingency measures seem to focus on demand.

“I believe there will be more and deeper demand measures [taken by governments in Europe] as winter approaches,” Birol told the FT, adding gas rationing was a distinct possibility in case of further cuts to Russian gas supplies.

In the past three months, Russia has cut off supply to several European countries that refused to pay for gas in rubles. It has also substantially reduced the flow along the Nord Stream, effectively cutting off supply to France and reducing flows to Germany by some 60 percent.

Gazprom and its equipment maintenance service provider Siemens Energy have blamed the reduction on a turbine delivery delay resulting from new Canadian sanctions against Moscow. Germany has blamed Gazprom.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Oil markets are pricing in long-term supply deficits and OPEC+ will face historic lows in spare capacity, warns IEA

June 17, 2022

Oil markets are pricing in long-term supply deficits and OPEC+ will face historic lows in spare capacity, warns IEA

Fatih Birol, head of IEA
IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. 
Anadolu Agency/Getty Images
  • The IEA issued a warning for global oil markets Wednesday, saying supply challenges will persist.
  • Three million barrels per day of Russian crude will disappear as sanctions set in, the IEA predicts.
  • “Severely restricted refining capacity is causing markets to price in long-term supply deficits in key refined products,” the report said.

The current turmoil across energy markets is set to worsen in 2023, as OPEC+ will face severe supply challenges while fuel prices will stay high, the International Energy Agency warned in its first forecast for next year.

The Paris-based think tank said Wednesday that global oil supplies will “struggle” to keep up with rising demand.

In particular, it highlighted that Russian barrels will disappear from this year’s market at a rate of 3 million barrels per day as more sanctions set in. That result in overall OPEC+ production falling by 520,000 barrels per day next year.

“OPEC+ would have to further tap into its dwindling capacity cushion, reducing it to historic lows,” the IEA said in its report.

Over recent months, oil prices have skyrocketed thanks to dwindling stockpiles and repercussions from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In March, the price of Brent crude briefly hit $139 a barrel. It’s hovering near $120 Wednesday.

US gas prices, too, have surged, recently breaking the $5-a-gallon threshold for the first time ever. And the IEA warned prices will stay high for a while as refineries live “hand-to-mouth” amid low crude and product inventories.

“Severely restricted refining capacity is causing markets to price in long-term supply deficits in key refined products,” the agency said. “This translates into a structurally elevated product price outlook.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

IEA chief warns of summer fuel shortages and a triple energy crisis that will outstrip the oil shocks of the 1970s

June 1, 2022

IEA chief warns of summer fuel shortages and a triple energy crisis that will outstrip the oil shocks of the 1970s

gas station
International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol has warned of a triple energy crisis that could be “much bigger” and longer lasting than the 1970s. 
Getty
  • The US and Europe face fuel shortages as summer vacations get underway, the head of the IEA told Der Spiegel.
  • Fatih Birol warned of potential diesel, petrol, and kerosene shortages, and said the current energy crisis was worse than the 1970s.
  • “We have an oil crisis, a gas crisis and an electricity crisis simultaneously,” he said.

The US could see fuel shortages this summer once people start taking their vacations — and Europe could take a particular hit from the lack of supply, the head of the International Energy Agency has warned.

“When the main holiday season starts in Europe and the US, fuel demand will rise,” Fatih Birol told Der Spiegel. “Then we could see shortages — for example, in diesel, petrol or kerosene, particularly in Europe.”

Birol also told the German newspaper that the energy crisis now underway will be more severe and longer-lasting than the oil price shocks of the 1970s, given it’s applying pressure on three fronts.

“Back then it was just about oil,” he said in the interview published Tuesday. “Now we have an oil crisis, a gas crisis and an electricity crisis simultaneously.”

Oil prices spiked in 1973 and 1979 as the Yom Kippur War and the Iranian Revolution interrupted Middle Eastern crude exports. Geopolitical events have hit the market again in 2022, as western nations impose sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

IEA: Current Energy Crisis Is “Much Bigger” Than 1970s Oil Crunch

June 1, 2022

IEA: Current Energy Crisis Is “Much Bigger” Than 1970s Oil Crunch

  • IEA Chief Birol: The world faces a “much bigger” energy crisis than the one of the 1970s.
  • Back in the 1970s, the crisis was just about oil.
  • Birol: The world, especially Europe, could face a summer of shortages of gasoline, fuel, and jet fuel.

The world faces a “much bigger” energy crisis than the one of the 1970s, the Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Fatih Birol, told German daily Der Spiegel in an interview published on Tuesday.

“Back then it was just about oil,” Birol told the news outlet. “Now we have an oil crisis, a gas crisis and an electricity crisis simultaneously,” said the head of the international agency created after the 1970s shock of the Arab oil embargo.

The energy crisis started in the autumn of last year, but the Russian invasion of Ukraine made it much worse as the markets fear disruption to energy supply out of Russia, while Western governments are imposing increasingly restrictive sanctions on Moscow over the war in Ukraine.

The EU agreed late on Monday to ban most of the imports of Russian oil, leaving pipeline supply exempted from the embargo, for now. This will further tighten already tight crude and product markets.

The world, especially Europe, could face a summer of shortages of gasoline, fuel, and jet fuel, the IEA’s Birol told Der Spiegel.

Fuel demand is set to rise as the main holiday season in Europe and the United States begins, Birol added.

Upended crude oil flows add to reduced global refinery capacity resulting in low inventories of products, including in the United States.

Refinery capacity for supply, globally and in the U.S, that is now a few million barrels per day lower than it was before the pandemic.

IEA calls for driving restrictions and air travel curbs to reduce oil demand

March 19, 2022

IEA calls for driving restrictions and air travel curbs to reduce oil demand

Energy agency warns 2.5mn barrels a day of Russian oil exports could cease from next month

The International Energy Agency has called for member countries to adopt “emergency measures” to cut oil demand in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, including driving restrictions, lower speed limits and curbs on air travel.

Fatih Birol, head of the energy watchdog, on Friday warned that such steps might be necessary because “oil markets are in an emergency situation . . . and it may get worse”.

As much as 2.5mn barrels a day of Russian oil exports could cease from next month due to the impact of the war and consumer boycotts of Russian crude, he said. Russia is one of the world’s largest oil producers. The IEA has proposed 10 measures to reduce oil demand by 2.7m b/d within the next four months, which it said would help balance potential loss from the Russian market. “As a result of Russia’s appalling aggression against Ukraine, the world may well be facing its biggest oil supply shock in decades,” Birol said. He urged IEA member countries — which include many of the world’s largest energy consumers such as the US, Japan and Germany — to cut demand now, “to avoid the risk of a crippling oil crunch”.

The measures include cutting speed limits on highways by 10kph, which would save 430,000 b/d, reducing business air travel and taking trains instead of planes where possible.

Working from home three days a week would also help cut oil demand, along with making public transport cheaper or even free. Many of the proposals would cut down on driving, including banning private cars from cities on Sundays and limiting private car access to roads in large cities.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Nuclear Power Is No Solution For the World’s Energy Problems

February 18, 2022

NUCLEAR POWER IS NO SOLUTION FOR THE WORLD’S ENERGY PROBLEMS

Nuclear power is no solution to the world’s energy problems. Not even close.

It’s important for electric power but electric power is not even 40% of the world’s energy supply—nor is it expected to increase much over the next 30 years.

IEA projects that nuclear power will account for only 5.5% of world energy supply in 2050 (Figure 1). That’s an increase of only 0.5% from 2020.

Figure 1. IEA most-likely scenario is for nuclear to account for 5.5% of world energy supply in 2050—an increase of 0.5% from 2020. Source: IEA & Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

Nuclear power has limited application beyond electric power generation and some heating capability. Yet the outlook is not much better for nuclear to increase as a major source of electric power either. IEA’s most-likely scenario is for nuclear to account for only 12.5% of electric power supply in 2050 (Figure 2).

Figure 2. IEA most-likely scenario is for nuclear to account for 12.5% of electric power supply in 2050. Source: IEA & Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

Electric power currently accounts for about 39% of world energy supply (Figure 3). IEA estimates that it will only increase to about 41% by 2050.

Figure 3. Electric power will increase from 39% to 41% of world energy supply by 2050. Source: IEA & Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

EIA’s International Energy Outlook 2021 is largely in agreement with IEA’s assessment of both electric and nuclear power. Unlike IEA, however, EIA provides data to account for the considerable energy losses during power generation, transmission and distribution. The losses amounted to 64% in 2020 (Table 1).

Table 1. EIA electric and nuclear net power to the electric grid and energy losses. Source: EIA and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

When losses are included, net electric power to the grid is expected to increase from 19% in 2020 to 28% in 2050 (Figure 4) instead of 41% in IEA’s evaluation shown above in Figure 3.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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