The US Energy Information Administration publishes Tight Oil Production Estimates by Play each month (can be found at link above.) I noticed this month that the estimates seemed different than I remembered so I checked earlier estimates I had saved on my computer. The chart below compares estimates from Dec 2018 to April 2019 (where the last month of data in the estimate is Dec 2018, Feb 2019, March 2019, and April 2019).
As is clear from the chart the February and March estimates have each been revised lower over the past two updates. If this should continue, we might see relatively flat tight oil output for all of 2019.
I have revised my estimate for future US tight oil output to a 400+/-100 kb/d increase in monthly average tight oil output from December 2018 to December 2019.