The EIA continues to have problems with updating its World oil production website. Consequently, this month’s report is again a shorter version of previous posts because the EIA’s International Energy Statistics update for June and July is not available. Information from other sources such as OPEC, the STEO and country specific sites such as Brazil, Norway and China are used to provide a short term outlook for future output and direction for a few of these countries and the world.
Where STEO data was used, the ratio of C + C to All Liquids was calculated. The average for the last six months up to May was used to project June and July production and in a few cases August production.
World oil production and projection charts are presented at the end of this post.
The current May International Energy Statistics has been updated to correct for the missing condensate production in the previous Russian file and is used for this report.
July Non-OPEC oil production increased by 520 kb/d to 52,245 kb/d and is up 1,706 kb/d from May. Close to 500 kb/d of the June increase is related to the EIA’s condensate correction for Russia in the EIA’s updated May International Energy Statistics. In the previous EIA May report, Russian condensate was not included in Russian production.
Using production data from the November 2023 STEO and the updated May EIA International Energy Statistics, a projection for Non-OPEC oil output was made for the period August 2023 to December 2024. (Red graph). Output is expected to reach 53,377 kb/d in December 2024, which is 969 kb/d higher than the December 2019 peak of 52,408 kb/d. August production is expected to increase by 27 kb/d.
From August 2023 to December 2024, oil production in Non-OPEC countries is expected to increase by 1,105. Note that production is expected to be relatively flat till May 2024.
July Non-OPEC W/O US production increased by 455 kb/d to 39,286 kb/d.
…click on the above link to read the rest…