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The Most Outrageous 2020 Oil Predictions

January 3, 2021

The Most Outrageous 2020 Oil Predictions As we approach the close of 2020, we’re reminded of one statistical certainty when it comes to oil price predictions. If you set anything other than a range, you will be proven wrong. And even for the forecasters and predictors that do set a range, the likelihood that the […]

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U.S. crude output to decline more than previously forecast in 2020 -EIA

December 8, 2020

U.S. crude output to decline more than previously forecast in 2020 -EIA NEW YORK (Reuters) -U.S. crude oil production is expected to fall by 910,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2020 to 11.34 million bpd, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Tuesday, a steeper decline than its previous forecast for a drop of […]

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EIA tight oil estimates

May 26, 2019

EIA tight oil estimates The US Energy Information Administration publishes Tight Oil Production Estimates by Play each month (can be found at link above.)  I noticed this month that the estimates seemed different than I remembered so I checked earlier estimates I had saved on my computer.  The chart below compares estimates from Dec 2018 to April […]

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The EIA’s Optimistic Outlook

March 22, 2019

The EIA’s Optimistic Outlook Most of the data below is taken from from the EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook. The data through February, 2019 is the EIA’s best estimate of past production and all data from March 2019 through December 2020 is the EIA’s best estimate of future production. However in most cases February production is highly […]

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U.S. ‘’Oil Weapon’’ Could Change Geopolitics Forever

March 21, 2019

U.S. ‘’Oil Weapon’’ Could Change Geopolitics Forever In a dynamic that shows just how far U.S. oil production has come in recent years, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Monday that in the last two months of 2018, the U.S. Gulf Coast exported more crude oil than it imported. Monthly net trade of crude oil […]

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The U.S. Is The World’s Top Oil Producer, But For How Long?

September 14, 2018

The U.S. Is The World’s Top Oil Producer, But For How Long? The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Tuesday that the U.S. likely surpassed Saudi Arabia and Russia earlier this year to become the world’s top crude oil producer. The EIA based its disclosure on preliminary estimates in its Short-Term Energy Outlook which […]

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Peak U.S. Shale Could Be 4 Years Away

February 25, 2018

Peak U.S. Shale Could Be 4 Years Away U.S. shale production growth has outperformed even the most bullish forecasts, forcing OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) to revise up American supply growth projections month after month. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) also expects shale/tight oil to continue to grow in all possible modeled […]

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Oil Market Supply Imbalance Getting Worse, Not Better

November 13, 2015

Oil Market Supply Imbalance Getting Worse, Not Better Oil futures prices (WTI) plunged 12.5 percent this week from $47.90 on Friday, November 3 to $41.96 yesterday morning, November 11. The main reason is that the global supply imbalance is getting worse. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest report indicates that the world supply surplus (production minus […]

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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