Yes, Something Broke
In this missive, we are just going to focus on the “WTF!” moment of this past week. In order to do this properly, I need to start with last week’s missive where we asked the question “Did Something Just Break?” In that article we addressed very specific concerns about interest rates and the problem they were going to cause.
“Speaking of rates, each time rates have climbed towards 3%, the market has stumbled.”
Chart updated through Friday.
“If you note in the chart above, a short-term ‘warning signal’ has been triggered which suggests that if rates remain above 3%, stocks are going to continue to struggle. The last time this occurred was in May when rates popped above 3%, stocks struggled and bonds outperformed.”
We also updated the pathway analysis for the highest probability outcomes over the next couple of months.
Chart updated through Friday – pathways remain unchanged
While the majority of the pathway’s accounted for a continued corrective, consolidation, process through the end of the year. It was Pathway #3 which came to fruition.
“Pathway #3: The issue of rising interest combines with a break in the economic data, or another credit-related event, and sends the market heading back to test supports at 2800 and 2750. This would likely coincide with a more severe contraction in the economic data which is not an immediate threat. Nonetheless, we should always consider the risk of an unexpected, exogenous, event. (10%)”
The recent sell-off coincides with the rising concerns of higher rates coupled with deterioration in economic growth heading into 2019. To wit:
“As such, our best initial take is that yesterday’s repricing of US growth was an overdue gut-check following last week’s monetary and oil supply shocks.”
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
