Texas Oil and Natural Gas Update- Sept 2016
Dean has provided his monthly update for Texas Oil and Natural Gas. The most recent month’s estimate is often volatile and may be ignored, the June and May estimates are likely pretty good (within 1% and 2%), the April 2016 estimate is likely to be robust(within 1% of the final value). The June EIA estimate is 240 kb/d lower than Dean’s estimate (about 7% too low). The numbers above the lines are for Dean’s estimate and the numbers below the lines are the EIA estimates for each month.
The change in the correction factors over time is shown in the chart above in kb/d, this amount is added to the RRC estimate to get the “corrected” output given by Dean’s estimate. The average is the April 2014 to July 2016 average shown by the dotted lines (T and T-1 only). T is the most recent month reported, T-1 is the month before month T, etc.
The chart above shows how Dean’s estimates have changed over time, wth estimates from Jan 2015 to July 2016. I have dropped the final 3 data points from each of the estimates, except for July 2016 where only the final month (July 2016) was dropped. Most months there was a tendency to underestimate output (except for the final 3 months of the estimate which is not shown in most cases). March 2016 was a notable exception, but even in that month’s estimate output was only too high by 0.6% relative to the July estimate after the most recent 3 months are dropped. By contrast the Nov 2015 estimate was 1.6% too low. The final 2 points of the July 2016 estimate in the chart above might be high or low by a few percent, but the April 2016 data point of 3434 kb/d for TX C+C output is likely to be within 1% of the final value.
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