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OPEC Update, September 18, 2022

September 19, 2022

OPEC Update, September 18, 2022 The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) for September 2022 was published recently. The last month reported in most of the OPEC charts that follow is August 2022 and output reported for OPEC nations is crude oil output in thousands of barrels per day (kb/d). In most of the OPEC charts that […]

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OPEC Update, March 2021

OPEC Update, March 2021 The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for March 2021 was published this past week. The last month reported in each of the charts that follow is February 2021 and output reported for OPEC nations is crude oil output in thousands of barrels per day (kb/d). The numbers at the left side of the […]

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US Light Tight Oil (LTO) Update

US Light Tight Oil (LTO) Update I have updated my scenarios for US LTO output, based on both EIA tight oil output data and average well profile data from Enno Peters’ shaleprofile.com. I have also created a scenario for the Niobrara shale oil play and for “other US LTO” which excludes the Permian Basin LTO, […]

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Estimating Texas Production-Bridging the Gap

ESTIMATING TEXAS PRODUCTION-BRIDGING THE GAP (Details for the chart above are explained in the post.) The Texas Railroad Commission (RRC) had the oil and gas production reported online in early 2005, and became fully online for producers and the public on Feb 14, 2005. At the time it was set up, it required the producers […]

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US Crude plus Condensate and Tight Oil, Jan 2018 Update

January 26, 2018

US Crude plus Condensate and Tight Oil, Jan 2018 Update From Dec 2016 to Dec 2017 US Tight oil output has increased by 975 kb/d based on US tight oil output data from the EIA. For the entire US we only have EIA monthly output estimates through Oct 2017. Over the Dec 2016 to Oct […]

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Texas Update- November 2017

November 23, 2017

Texas Update- November 2017 Dean Fantazzini has provided his latest estimates of Texas oil and natural gas output. His analysis is based on RRC data only. Each RRC data set from Jan 2014 to Sept 2017 for crude and from April 2014 to Sept 2017 for condensate and natural gas are used in the “all […]

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The Future of US Light Tight Oil (LTO)

The Future of US Light Tight Oil (LTO) The future output from the light tight oil (LTO) sector of the US oil industry is the subject of much speculation. Above I present some possible future output scenarios based on a simple model of US LTO, the scenarios are compared with the EIA’s 2017 Annual Energy […]

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Texas Oil and Natural Gas Update- Sept 2016

October 1, 2016

Texas Oil and Natural Gas Update- Sept 2016 Dean has provided his monthly update for Texas Oil and Natural Gas. The most recent month’s estimate is often volatile and may be ignored, the June and May estimates are likely pretty good (within 1% and 2%), the April 2016 estimate is likely to be robust(within 1% […]

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Overview of the Northern Deepwater Gulf of Mexico

September 10, 2016

Overview of the Northern Deepwater Gulf of Mexico The post that follows is a guest post by southlageo, a geologist with over 30 years of oil industry experience. In this post, I will address 3 topics relating to the Northern Deepwater Gulf of Mexico – 1. Historical oil production 2. One view of the future […]

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Texas Oil and Natural Gas- June 2016

Texas Oil and Natural Gas- June 2016 Dean has shared his estimates for Texas Oil and Natural Gas output. Texas (TX) C+C output was revised lower by -10, -17, -22, -18, and -52 kb/d for Nov 2015 through March 2016 respectively. Output in April 2016 increased by 27 kb/d from the revised March 2016 estimate […]

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Texas Update May 2016 and Eagle Ford Output Estimat

Texas Update May 2016 and Eagle Ford Output Estimate Dean has provided me with his latest update for Texas Oil and Natural Gas production. Texas C+C output has increased slightly over the first 3 months of 2016. Texas C+C output was 3549 kb/d in March 2016, about 39 kb/d higher than February. Texas crude output […]

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EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook and the Seneca Cliff

EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook and the Seneca Cliff The scenario above shows an Oil Shock Model with a URR of 3600 Gb and EIA data from 1970 to 2015 and the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2016 early release reference projection from 2016 to 2040. The oil shock model was originally developed by Webhubbletelescope and presented […]

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World Crude plus Condensate Decline Rate

World Crude plus Condensate Decline Rate There is concern that World C+C may decline steeply after the peak, I believe those concerns are over blown. There is always the possibility that there could be a severe recession due to high debt levels, high oil prices or potentially due to both problems in combination. War and […]

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Texas Oil and Gas Production March 2016

Texas Oil and Gas Production March 2016 Most of the charts that follow were produced by Dean Fantazzini and are in barrels of output per day for oil, condensate, and oil plus condensate except where noted. In my opinion Dean’s estimates for Texas output for the most recent 24 months are the best that I […]

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Coal Shock Model

Coal Shock Model The eventual peak in World fossil fuel output is a potentially serious problem for human civilization. Many people have studied this problem, including Jean Laherrere, Steve Mohr, Paul Pukite (aka Webhubbletelescope), and David Rutledge. I have found Steve Mohr’s work the most comprehensive as he covered coal, oil, and natural gas from both the supply and demand […]

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