Texas Oil and Gas Production March 2016
In the chart above corrected output is 3477 kb/d for TX C+C in Jan 2016, an increase of 73 kb/d from Dec 2015. Note that from May 2015 to Dec 2015 the most recent month’s estimate has been about 28 kb/d too high on average, so actual Jan 2016 output might be about 3450 kb/d.
The chart above compares Dean’s corrected C+C estimate with both the EIA estimate and RRC data which is incomplete for the most recent 24 months. The “RRC error %” is Dean’s “corrected” divided by RRC data minus one times 100 and is read from the right axis.
Texas oil output was 3014 kb/d in Jan 2016 based on Dean’s corrected estimate, an increase of 73.5 kb/d from Dec 2015.
The corrected Texas condensate output was 463 kb/d in Jan 2016, a decrease of 1 kb/d from Dec 2015.
The chart above is in thousands of cubic feet per day. The Jan 2016 corrected estimate is 2381 million cubic feet per day, a decrease of 176 million cubic feet per day from Dec 2015.
The chart above shows how Dean’s estimates have changed over time from April 2015 to Jan 2016. Notice especially the big change in the estimates from April to June 2015, after that the estimates seem to converge nicely from June 2015 through Jan 2016. My guess is that the data processing in Texas has been improving dramatically over the past 7 months.
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