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The UK’s Green Gilt is Marketing Puff and a Pointless Distraction
The UK’s Green Gilt is Marketing Puff and a Pointless Distraction The UK attracted a record £137 bln order book for its £10 bln Green Gilt. But what does the Green Gilt achieve? Its marketing puff. It may disguise how ill-considered and ultimately self-defeating the Government’s rush to looking green has been. No matter how […]
Is Evergrande a symptom of deeper malaise?
Is Evergrande a symptom of deeper malaise? Evergrande’s imminent default is rocking markets – but few believe the collapse of a Chinese property developer could trigger a global financial crisis. What if Evergrande is just a symptom of a deeper malaise within the Chinese economy and its political/business structures? Maybe there is more at stake […]
China’s Crackdown on Debt, Tech & Evergrande Sends Frazzled Wall Street Titans to China
China’s Crackdown on Debt, Tech & Evergrande Sends Frazzled Wall Street Titans to China The property sector and its debts are possibly the biggest financial mess in China’s history. The crackdowns by Chinese authorities on some of the biggest hype-and-hoopla industries have sent investors heading for the exits. There is a crackdown on debt to […]
It’s all connected: The natural gas market and its casualties
It’s all connected: The natural gas market and its casualties Natural gas was supposed to be the so-called bridge fuel to the low-carbon renewable energy economy. It was abundant, cleaner to burn than oil and coal, and more and more available to anyone who wanted it as a global market in liquefied natural gas (LNG) […]
Rabobank: As With Evergiven, Evergrande Is Just The Symtpom Of Far Larger Problems
Rabobank: As With Evergiven, Evergrande Is Just The Symtpom Of Far Larger Problems It’s Ever Something On 23 March, the giant cargo vessel Evergiven got stuck in the Suez Canal and blocked it for six days. Obviously, this dominated global headlines. Even Joe Shmoe could see global supply chains were not operating efficiently because of […]
Evergrande Misses Debt Payments Due Monday As World’s Richest Banker Says China’s “Lehman Moment” Has Arrived
Evergrande Misses Debt Payments Due Monday As World’s Richest Banker Says China’s “Lehman Moment” Has Arrived Wall Street analysts have been churning out commentary this week proclaiming that while Evergrande’s troubles pose a serious threat to the Chinese economy, it’s potential collapse doesn’t represent a “Lehman Moment”. As Thursday’s bond-interest deadline looms, analysts at Mizuho […]
The case for contingency planning
The case for contingency planning LONG-ODDS BET OR A PORTFOLIO OF SCENARIOS? An intelligent investor – as distinct from a gambler – doesn’t put all his or her money on a single counter. He doesn’t stake everything on a single stock, a single sector, a single asset class, a single country or a single currency. […]
The Inflation Train Isn’t Anywhere Near Full Speed
The Inflation Train Isn’t Anywhere Near Full Speed Public domain photo from National Park Service Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and other members of the Fed have been using the term “transitory” to downplay the threat that the last 16 months of skyrocketing inflation would last. But inflation has been sharply on the rise since March 2020, with only […]
Riptide in the World Economy
Riptide in the World Economy COMMENT: Marty, I think the storms are creating dangerous rip currents that just suck swimmers out to sea here in Jersey. Never hear about that in Florida. I guess that and taxes are what made you leave. LOL DK REPLY: Actually, I was caught in one when I was a teenager. My uncle […]
Former Lehman Trader On “China’s Lehman Moment”
Former Lehman Trader On “China’s Lehman Moment” My name is Larry McDonald, that is the UK cover above. In the years before the failure of Lehman Brothers, I ran a successful distressed credit business at what was the 4th largest investment bank in the U.S. – becoming one of the most consistently profitable traders in […]
What Comes After Mind-Blowing Free-Money Blow-Off Spike in Retail Sales? A Spike Doesn’t Spike Forever
What Comes After Mind-Blowing Free-Money Blow-Off Spike in Retail Sales? A Spike Doesn’t Spike Forever Powered by price increases. Total retail sales – not adjusted for inflation, now a big factor – inched up 0.7% in August from July, to $619 billion (seasonally adjusted), up a stunning 18% from two years ago and 15.1% from a year […]
Wrong for a different reason
Wrong for a different reason Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez – A well-meaning but not particularly bright left-leaning US politician – made a stir earlier this week by wearing a figure-hugging dress emblazoned with the slogan “Tax the Rich” to the prestigious 2021 Met Gala. Since the slogan was clearly political, it wasn’t long before the various political […]
The Negative-Sum Economy
The Negative-Sum Economy There are tides and seasons in the comments I field for posts here on my blog, certain questions that get asked at regular intervals, certain saliva-flecked tirades I can count on getting whenever certain things appear in my writings or happen in the world. One of the more frequent of the questions […]
Ministry of Manipulation: No Wonder Trust and Credibility Have Been Lost
Ministry of Manipulation: No Wonder Trust and Credibility Have Been Lost Now that every financial game in America has been rigged to benefit the few at the expense of the many, trust and credibility has evaporated like an ice cube on a summer day in Death Valley. Here is America in a nutshell: we no […]
