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The EIA’s Questionable Numbers

July 3, 2015

The EIA’s Questionable Numbers

The EIA’s, on June 30th, published its Petroleum Supply Monthly. I Think their numbers are just way too high. I compared them with the EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report. The chart below shows the Results.

EIA Post 1

I averaged the weekly numbers and converted them to monthly data. They were pretty close for the first three months of 2014 but then they begin to diverge. Of course they were much closer earlier but in the Petroleum Supply Monthly has, over several months, been revised upward. The Weekly Petroleum Status Report is never revised.

In April, the Petroleum Supply Monthly shows US C+C production 322,000 barrels per day above the weekly average of the Weekly Petroleum Status Report.

EIA Post 2

The Petroleum Supply Monthly shows US production increased 387,000 barrels per day in the two months January to March. That is an increase when oil rigs were being stacked by the dozens. They show Texas up 312,000 over those two months and New Mexico up 52,000 bpd. That means they think the Permian, which is mostly in Texas but partly in New Mexico, was really booming during those two months.

 

EIA Post 3

The EIA has crude production continuing to climb during April, up 396,000 bpd January to April. The Gulf of Mexico, which had been down slightly the previous three months, was shown up 104,000 in April, giving them a gain of 71,000 bpd over the three months.

But obviously Texas is where all the action is.

 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Bakken by County

June 30, 2015

Bakken by County

North Dakota publishes monthly ND Historical Barrels of Oil Produced by County. This data however does not include confidential wells. But they do estimate, by county, their confidential well production here: Oil and Gas Production Report

All charts are in barrels per day and are only for the last 16 months in order to get a better and expanded view of what each county is doing.

North Dakota Expanded

First a sixteen month view of all North Dakota production. North Dakota production, in April, stood at  1,168,636 bpd. That is 17,631 bpd below their production last September, seven months previous. North Dakota production is down 59,385 bpd since the high reached in December.

McKenzie

McKenzie County April production stood at 413,671 bpd, 31,555 bpd below their high in December.

Mountrail

Mountrail County production stood at 255,384 bpd in April, 36,132 bpd below their peak in September.

 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Are We Headed For Global Warming Collapse?

June 28, 2015

Are We Headed For Global Warming Collapse?

This is the first of several posts I will do on Global Collapse. I am not saying, right here anyway, that civilization as we know it will collapse, but I am asking the question: “Can collapse be avoided?” This post will deal with global warming and the associated climate change.

Collapse Post 2

Right now CO2 is higher than it has been in over 20 million years. But it has been higher, a lot higher.

The chart below was published in the Worldwatch Institute’s State of the World 2015 and the source of their data was Goddard Institute for Space Studies

Collapse Post 11

What this chart clearly shows is that global warming, so far, is primarily a northern hemisphere phenomenon and mostly above 60 degrees latitude.

Arctic still heating up twice as fast as rest of planet. Annual average temperatures have continued to rise for the region as a whole throughout the recent slowdown in the pace of warming globally, according to a new analysis of conditions above 60 degrees north latitude.

Collapse Post 3

The ocean, especially the arctic ocean, is warming much faster than the atmosphere.

In fact, the loss of reflective sea ice is part of the reason Arctic temperature has risen three times faster than the global average in recent decades. This effect, known as Arctic amplification, has consequences for nearby land ice, too.

But why is the Northern  Well for one reason that’s where most of the people are. That’s where most of the CO2 emissions comes from. But… don’t the air mix from north to south?

 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

New International Energy Statistics.

June 24, 2015

New International Energy Statistics.

The Eia has finally updated their International Energy Statistics with data through February 2015. All data in the charts below are Crude + Condensate and is in thousand barrels per day with the last data point February 2015.

World

World C+C dropped 477,000 bpd in January and another 65,000 bpd in February for a total decline of 542,000 bpd. World C+C stood at 79,160,000 barrels per day in February.

Non-OPEC

Non OPEC C+C declined 244,000 bpd in January and another 100,000 bpd in February for a total decline of 344,000 since December. Non-OPEC C+C production stood at 46,656,000 bpd in February.

OPEC C+C

OPEC C+C, in February 2015 stood at 32,504,000 bpd, down 1,451,000 bpd from its peak in April 2012. However according to the OPEC MOMR their crude only is up 1,000,000 bpd from February to May.

 

Bakken April Production Data

June 13, 2015

Bakken April Production Data

The North Dakota Industrial Commission is out with the April production Data for theBakken and all North Dakota.

Bakken Production

Eight month of flat to down production from the Bakken.

Bakken Amplified

I have shortened the data to 16 months here to give a better picture of what is really happening. North Dakota reached an 8 month low. North Dakota, in April, was 17,631 barrels per day below their September 2014 production. The Bakken was only 11,024 below September 2014 so conventional wells seem to be dropping off pretty fast.

The Baken is 54,599 bpd below their peak in December and all North Dakota is 59,385 bpd below their December Peak.

As usual there was very little adjustments in the previous months data. Bakken March production was adjusted down by 114 barrels per day while North Dakota production was adjusted down by 81 barrels per day.

Bakken BPD Per Well

Bakken BPD per well has been dropping for four months now. Bakken bpd per well now stands at 116, down 4 from March. All North Dakota bpd per well is now 96, down 3 while conventional wells bpd per well is 23, down 1 from March.

Bakken Wells Producing

Bakken wells producing increased by 107 while North Dakota wells producing increased by 101.

The North Dakota rig count now stands at 75, down 7 since Wednesday.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

World Oil Output Last 3 Years

June 4, 2015

World Oil Output Last 3 Years

The EIA publishes every possible energy stat for the USA and hardly anything for the rest of the world. Well, anything current for the rest of the world anyway. TheirInternational Energy Statistics is already five full months behind and working on six. December 2014 is the last international oil production data we have.

Anyway during this lull in other data I decided to look at the last three years of international data, from December 2011 to December 2014. All data is in thousand barrels per day.Post 1

World C+C production was flat for most of 2012 and 2013 but in late 2013 production took off and has increased by about 3 million barrels per day above the average for 2012 and 2013. December C+C production was 79,300,000 BPD.

Post 4

While total C+C production has increased by 3,000,000 BPD over the last three years the top ten gainers have increased just over twice as much, 6,200,000 BPD.

And just who were the big C+C production increasers for the last three years. Keep in mind this is the total change, or increase, over the last three years, not total production.

Post 2

The largest gainer, by a wide margin, was the USA. Iraq and Canada were runners up and the rest were also rans.

Almost everyone else had declines.

 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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