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The Trade Wars Begin: U.S. Imposes 256% Tarriff On Chinese Steel Imports

The Trade Wars Begin: U.S. Imposes 256% Tarriff On Chinese Steel Imports Two weeks ago, when looking at the latest import price index data, we showed something disturbing: China has become an all out exporter of deflation. As the chart below shows, In November, import prices from China decreased 1.5% over the past 12 months, the […]

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Saudi Arabia Continues to Ramp Up Oil Output in Face of Market Glut

Saudi Arabia Continues to Ramp Up Oil Output in Face of Market Glut Saudi Arabia increased its exports of oil during October, shipping out more crude than it had in the previous four months, aggravating a supply glut that has severely depressed oil prices and revenues to oil producers. But the desert kingdom reportedly is […]

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All Roads Lead To Peak Oil

All Roads Lead To Peak Oil I follow the JODI World Oil Database primarily because it is now four months ahead of the EIA international data base. I make some adjustments however. I use the OPEC MOMR “secondary sources” for all OPEC data where JODI also uses the MOMR but uses their “direct communication” data instead. The […]

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Azerbaijan Currency Crashes 50% As Crude Contagion Spreads

Azerbaijan Currency Crashes 50% As Crude Contagion Spreads OPEC blowback continues to ripple around the world. With Russia’s Ruble pushing back towards record lows against the USD, and Kazakhstan’s Tenge having tumbled to record lows, the writing was on the wall for Azerbaijan. As Bloomberg reports, the third-biggest oil producer in the former Soviet Union moved to a free […]

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Epocalypse Soon: The Great Economic Collapse is Happening

Epocalypse Soon: The Great Economic Collapse is Happening  I use the term “epocalypse” to name the last days of the global economy as we know it — a global economic collapse of biblical proportion. It is economic, epochal, an apocalypse that will change the world and a collapse … all in one word that sounds the right size for what I’m talking about. […]

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The zombie apocalypse in oil: Why it’s a bad sign for all of us

The zombie apocalypse in oil: Why it’s a bad sign for all of us The dramatic drop in oil prices has created what are called “zombie” companies, oil companies which can still afford to pay interest on huge debts, but little else. If oil prices stay low, the problem is likely to spread and become an […]

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Oil Prices and Global Growth

Oil Prices and Global Growth  CAMBRIDGE – One of the biggest economic surprises of 2015 is that the stunning drop in global oil prices did not deliver a bigger boost to global growth. Despite the collapse in prices, from over $115 per barrel in June 2014 to $45 at the end of November 2015, most […]

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Financial War over Oil Reshapes World, Will End with Much Higher Prices

Financial War over Oil Reshapes World, Will End with Much Higher Prices Low oil prices are the wreckage from a war – a financial war. By Larry Kummer, Editor of the Fabius Maximus website: Oil sell-off after OPEC makes even ECB look good. Better to have announced something, even if less than hoped for, than nothing […]

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Oil Producer’s Currencies Are Collapsing As Brent Breaks Below $40

Oil Producer’s Currencies Are Collapsing As Brent Breaks Below $40  Not helped by weakness in China trade data, questions over global growth and inflation expectations are growing. Oil-exporting nations  (and growth-linked currencies) are getting monkey-hammered… Just when traders thought the bottom was in… As Reuters notes, with lower oil prices likely to add to global deflationary […]

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Egypt update: net oil importer and chokepoints

Egypt update: net oil importer and chokepoints Oil production and consumption  Fig 1: Oil production vs consumption After a post-peak decline production has stabilized but consumption has increased relentlessly at a long-term 1.7% pa, slightly below population growth of around 2% pa. Egypt is now a net oil importer. On these trends, the gap between […]

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Oil May Plunge to $20, Signalling Economic Disaster: “The Numbers Are Dreadful And Unprecedented”

Oil May Plunge to $20, Signalling Economic Disaster: “The Numbers Are Dreadful And Unprecedented” The price of oil has long been a key indicator of economic health and stability. And that index is tanking fast. In the last few years, dramatic overproduction of oil has become a major tool of geopolitical conflict. As prices have plummeted from […]

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The Case For Peak Oil

The Case For Peak Oil All charts below were created with data from JODI, the EIA and OPEC MOMR. It is in thousand barrels per day and the last data point is September 2015. World crude oil production has taken off during the last two years due primarily to US shale oil production and higher […]

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OPEC’s Bad Bet By The Numbers

OPEC’s Bad Bet By The Numbers What will happen to the economic fortunes of OPEC members if it turns out the Saudis and their Gulf Arab allies (UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar) bet on the wrong horse in November 2014? With the wager Saudi Oil Minister Al al-Naimi announced on market forces as the cure for […]

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OPEC’s Strategy Is Working According To Cartel’s Latest Report

OPEC’s Strategy Is Working According To Cartel’s Latest Report OPEC, which has been exceeding its own oil-production cap during the past year, says output was down in October and forecasts a production drop overall next year because of the persistent low price of oil. The cartel’s Monthly Market Report, published Thursday, said its 12 members extracted […]

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OPEC Crude Production Down in October

OPEC Crude Production Down in October  OPEC has published their OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report with crude only production numbers for October 2015. The charts are “Crude Only” production and are in thousand barrels per day. OPEC 12 was down 256,000 bpd in October. OPEC uses secondary sources such as Platts and other agencies to report their production numbers. […]

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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