OPEC’s 2015 World Oil Outlook
In all cases below I chart crude when it is available and “liquids” only when no other option is available. The data is in million barrels per day.
Here is their medium term outlook chart. Notice they expect both OPEC and Non-OPEC crude to decline in 2016 but Non-OPEC crude starts a slow recovery in 2017. They say OPEC crude will not start their recovery until 2019.
Here is their long term outlook. Notice the tremendous growth in “Other Liquids”, whatever that is.
OPEC expects Non-OPEC crude to be down in 2016 but to begin a slow recovery in 2017. I think that outlook is way too optimistic.
OPEC thinks their short term production has peaked and will decline by 100,000 barrels per day next year and hold on a flat plateau until sometime after 2010.
Adding OPEC and Non-OPEC crude we see that OPEC thinks World crude production will decline next year but begin a slow increase starting in 2017. Also notice that OPEC’s estimate of current crude production is well below what the EIA says is being produced and even below JODI’s production numbers. I think this is because OPEC does not count Condensate. Other than that I do not have an explanation.
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