Home » Posts tagged 'ron patterson'

Tag Archives: ron patterson

Olduvai
Click on image to purchase

Olduvai III: Catacylsm
Click on image to purchase

Post categories

Post Archives by Category

OPEC August 2019 Oil Production

September 15, 2019

OPEC August 2019 Oil Production

The OPEC charts below were produced from data published in the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report.

The OPEC 14 was up 136,000 barrels per day in August.
Nothing happening in Algeriaexcept a slow decline.
Ditto for Angola.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

USA Oil Production

September 3, 2019

USA Oil Production

The Real Reason Why US Oil Production Has Peaked

Raymond James recently estimated that over the last three years the U.S. decline rate for oil has doubled from 1.6 to 3.2 million barrels per day. The drilled but uncompleted well inventory (“DUC”) is back to normal, so the number of wells being drilled and the number of wells being completed is now about the same. We need over 12,000 new horizontal oil wells completed each year to hold production flat and the number of completed wells will need to go up each year. 

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (“EIA”) forecast at the beginning of this year was that the U.S. shale oil plays were just getting started and that production would increase by at least 2 million barrels of oil per day (“MMBOPD”) each year for several more years.

Now if you believe that U.S. shale production will increase by 2 million barrels per day each year for several more years, then I have a bridge that I think you might be interested in. But let’s just play “what if”, or what if it really did increase by 2 million barrels per day for the next five years.

According to the EIA’s Drilling Productivity Report, December 2018 shale production, all basins, was 8,232,750 barrels per day and the legacy decline, for all basins, averaged 6.14 percent per month or 505,737 barrels per day.

Legacy decline of over one million barrels per day would be a crippling requirement of shale producers. But not to worry, that is simply not going to happen. Now total US production did increase by two million barrels per day 2018. In fact, according to the EI.s Monthly Energy Review, US production increased by 2,064,000 barrels per day in 2018. But for the first 7 months of 2019, total US production has declined by 54,000 barrels per day.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

USA and World Oil Production

August 6, 2019

USA and World Oil Production

The USA data below was taken primarily from the EIA’s Petroleum Supply Monthly while some were taken from the EIA’s Monthly Energy Review.

I have some bad news to report. The EIA no longer published World production data or Non-OPEC production data. This data had previously been published in the Monthly Energy Review.

The Monthly Energy Review’s data was one month behind the Petroleum Supply Monthly but now they jumped two months and are now one month ahead of the Petroleum Supply Monthly. They now publish the previous month’s numbers, June in this case, but now publish only US data. The Petroleum Supply Monthly is unchanged.

EDIT: The Petroleum Supply Monthly does publish some, incomplete, world data… through April or one month behind their USA data. I will use that with an explanation and comments next month.

The closest I can come to World oil production, through June, is the combined production of OPEC, Russia, the USA, and Canada. This is 70% of total World Production.

Here is the other 30% of World oil production. However, this data is only through March. Unfortunately, I can never update this chart because the EIA no longer publishes the data

This 30% of World oil production peaked in late 2015 and has declined an average of 450,000 barrels per day per year every year since.

Actually, in 2015 these countries averaged about 32% of World oil production but now averages about 29%.

I have no other source for World oil production. The IEA publishes quarterly projected data for the World and Non-OPEC. But this data is total liquids and only quarterly projections that bears little resemblance to actual C+C production.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

June 15, 2019

OPEC May Production Data

The below charts, unless otherwise noted, were taken from the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report. The data is through May, 2019 and is in thousand barrels per day.

OPEC crude only production was down 236,000 barrels per day in May but that was after April production had been revised upward by 82,000 bpd.

Iranian April production was revised upward by 43,000 bpd and Saudi Arabia April production was revised upward by 24,000 bpd.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

OPEC March Data and Saudi Report

April 10, 2019

OPEC March Data and Saudi Report

The below OPEC charts were taken from data in the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report. All data is through March 2019 and is in thousand barrels per day.

There was another big decline in OPEC production in March, down 534,000 barrels per day.

The decline was mostly Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, and Iraq.

Iran, Libya and Venezuela are exempt from quotas. Everyone except Saudi Arabia are near their quota. Saudi is over half a million barrels per day below their quota.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The EIA’s Optimistic Outlook

March 22, 2019

The EIA’s Optimistic Outlook

Most of the data below is taken from from the EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook. The data through February, 2019 is the EIA’s best estimate of past production and all data from March 2019 through December 2020 is the EIA’s best estimate of future production. However in most cases February production is highly speculative so I drew the “projection” line between January and February.

Understand the above chart is Total Liquids, not C+C as I usually post. As you can see the EIA expects world petroleum liquids to keep climbing ever upwards.

This is the EIA’s data for OPEC all liquids with Production data from April 2019 through December 2020.

Notice the EIA expects OPEC production to keep declining through December 2020. Also they expect total liquids to decline slightly faster than crude only. This is interesting since neither condensate nor other liquids are subject to OPEC quotas.

About two years ago I made note that the EIA expected Non-OPEC to plateau but they expected OPEC to keep increasing into the future. Now they have completely reversed themselves as they expect all future growth, at least for the next two years, to come from Non-OPEC countries.

The below  chart is from the EIA’a Monthly Energy review and is C+C through November 2018.

Virtually all crude oil increase since 2016 has come from three countries, USA, Russia and Canada. The spike upward (circled) in October and November 2018 was partially due to OPEC prepping for cuts. Every OPEC country made heroic efforts to increase productio during those two months in order to increase their quota. Quotas were set in December.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

OPEC November Production Data

December 13, 2018

OPEC November Production Data

All the below OPEC data is from the latest OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report. The data is in thousand barrels per day and is through November 2018.

OPEC  15 was down 11,000 barrels per day in November but that was after October production was revised upward by 67,000 bpd.

OPEC production was 32,965,000 barrels per day in November. The revised October numbers, 32,976,000 was an all time high.

Above are the major revisions. All other revisions were in the low single digits.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

OPEC October Production Data

November 14, 2018

OPEC October Production Data

All OPEC data below is from the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report The data is through October 2018 and is in thousand barrels per day.

OPEC 15 crude oil production was up 127,000 barrels per day in October. that was after September production was revised upward by 13,000 bpd.

OPEC production will likely be up a bit more in November but down considerably in December.

Iran down 156,000 barrels per day in October due to sanctions.

Iraq production has been flat lately. They are obviously pumping every barrel they possibly can.

Kuwaiti crude oil production has been relatively flat for 6.5 years. During that period their oil rig count increased from around 20 to a high of 44. It has recently dropped to 35 however. It should be obvious that they are producing flat out.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

OPEC September Production Data

October 12, 2018

OPEC September Production Data

The below charts were created with data from the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report and the data through September 2018.

OPEC crude only was up 132,000 barrels per day in September to 32,761,000 bpd. that is still 650,000 barrels per day below their all time high in October of 2016.

August production was revised up by 63,000 bpd so production was actually up 195,000 bpd from what was reported last month.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

OPEC August Production Data

September 13, 2018

OPEC August Production Data

Data for the OPEC charts below are from the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report. All OPEC data are through August 2018 and in thousand barrels per day.

OPEC 15 crude only production was up 278,000 barrels per day in August to 32,565,000 bpd. Most of that increase was Libya, up 256,000 bpd.

July OPEC production was revised down 38,000 barrels per day.

Sanctions are beginning to have an affect on Iranian production.

Iraq reached a new high in August, but just barely. They had 4,649,000 bpd. Their previous high was 4,642,000 bpd in December 2016.

Libya was the big gainer in August, up 256,000 bpd to 926,000 bpd. They are still fighting rebels however. They will likely be down slightly in September.

I think Saudi Arabia will hold pretty close to this level for awhile now.

Venezuela’s decline continues. They are now over 1,100,000 barrels per day from their average in 2015.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

EIA’s Latest USA & World Oil Production Data

September 5, 2018

EIA’s Latest USA & World Oil Production Data

These first charts are taken from the EIA’s Monthly Crude Oil and Natural Gas Production. The data are through June 2018 and is in thousand barrels per day.

US C+C production was up 231,000 barrels per day in June to 10,674,000 bpd, an all-time high.

Texas was up 165,000 barrels per day in June to 4,410,000 bpd.

New Mexico was up 5,000 barrels per day in June to 657,000 bpd.  The Permian extends into New Mexico.

North Dakota was down 16,000 barrels per day in June to 1,220,000 bpd.

Oklahoma was down 3,000 barrels per day in June to 526,000 bpd.

Colorado was down 24,000 barrels per day in June to 423,000 bpd.

California was down 2,000 barrels per dayin June to 462,000 bpd. California peaked in February of 1987 at 1,109,000 bpd.

Alaska was down 45,000 barrels per day in June to 451,000 bpd. June, July, August, and part of September are the prime maintenance months for Alaska. The maintenance includes pigging the pipeline and overhauling the pumps along the pipeline.

The Gulf of Mexico was up 154,000 barrels per day in June to 1,658,000 bpd. Just a couple of years ago the EIA was predicting the GOM to be at almost 2 million barrels per day by now. I really don’t think that is going to happen anytime soon.

I wanted US Less Permian but the EIA doesn’t break it out that way. So I will just have to settle for all the Permian plus Eagle Ford and East Texas. East Texas is in decline while Eagle Ford is still increasing. But my point is the rest of the US seems to be settling out to about where it was in 2015.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

U.S. & World Oil Production and ExxonMobil Outlook

August 4, 2018

U.S. & World Oil Production and ExxonMobil Outlook

Here are the latest oil production numbers from the EIA. All data is in thousand barrels per day unless otherwise noted.

The USA through May 2018. The upward surge has stalled for the last two months. US production was down 30,000 bpd in May.

It is a little astonishing how close the Texas chart resembles the USA chart. Texas is, by far, the USA’s largest producer. As Texas goes, so goes the USA. Texas production was up 20,000 bpd in May.

North Dakota production has increased significantly in the last two months. They were up 67,000 bpd in April and up another 25,000 bpd in May.

Gulf of Mexico production was down 99,000 bpd in April and down another 75,000 bpd in May.

Alaska was down only 1,000 bpd in may but that was 12,000 bpd lower than last may. They are now entering the maintenance season. Expect huge drops in June and July.

The EIA data in this chart is through April and the National Energy Board data is <b>estimated</b> through December 2018. The EIA data is usually lower than the NEB data but they both agree on April production.

World crude oil production was up 326,000 bpd in <b>April.</b>

Non-OPEC production reached a new peak in April, up 405,000 bpd to 47,159,000 bpd. Most of that increase was Canada, up 317,000 and the U.K., up 111,000 bpd.

Here I am adding a few charts and comments from ExxonMobil’s 2018 Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040. Their text is in italics. Any bold in their text is mine.

• Technology improvements lead to wind, solar and biofuels increasing, with a combined growth of about 5 percent per year
• Non-fossil fuels reach about 22 percent of total energy mix by 2040
• Oil continues to provide the largest share of the energy mix; essential for transportation and chemicals
• Natural gas demand rises the most, largely to help meet increasing needs for electricity and support increasing industrial demand

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

OPEC May Oil Production

June 14, 2018

OPEC May Oil Production

All OPEC data below is from the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report. All OPEC data is in thousand barrels per day and is through May 2018.

OPEC 14 Crude oil production was up 35,000 barrels per day but that was after March production had been revised down by 32,000 bpd and April production was revised down by 89,000 bpd.

Nigeria’s April production was revised down by 27,000 bpd and Saudi Arabia’s April production was revised down by 58,000 bpd.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

USA and World Oil Production

June 5, 2018

USA and World Oil Production

All data below is from various sources. All US data is from the EIA. Unless otherwise noted is in thousand barrels per day.

US C+C production through April, 2018. For the last 8 months, the average increase in US production has been 168,000 bpd. Most of this has come from the Permian.

This chart is through February, 2018. US net imports peaked in 2006 and have dropped about 9.5 million barrels per day since then.

Alaska through March, 2018. Alaska’s decline has definitely slowed.

GOM through March. The resurgence in GOM production seems to have petered out about a year and a half ago and is now holding at about 1.7 million barrels per day.

North Dakota through March. Has shale production peaked in North Dakota? It does appear that they are having trouble increasing production in the last six months.

Texas through March, All that increase in US production has come from Texas, primarily from the Permian. For how long and for how much will this increase continue? I have no idea but guesses will be welcome in the comments below.

This data is from the Canadian National Energy Board and is through December, 2018. They say all data from September 2017 through December 2018 is an estimate. They are expecting production to bottom out in May 2018 and then increase for the remainder of the year.

This data is from the Russian Minister of Energy and is through May, 2018. Russian production has been almost flat for the last three months. Data from the Russian Minister of Energy averages about 400,000 barrels per day higher than the EIA’s estimate.

China through February, 2018. China is clearly in decline though the decline seems to have slowed.

Mexico through February, 2018. Mexico is in a slow decline though the decline has slowed in the last few months.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

OPEC April Production Data

May 14, 2018

OPEC April Production Data

The OPEC charts below were created with data from the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report. The PDF File can be downloaded from here: OPEC MOMR All OPEC data is through April 2018 and is in thousand barrels per day.

There was little change in OPEC production in April.

OPEC production was  up 12,000 barrels per day in April but that was after February production had been revised down by 74,000 bpd and March production revised down by 39,000 bpd.

I am going to forgo commenting on each country unless there is something dramatic happening.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Post navigation

← Older posts

Olduvai IV: Courage
Click on image to read excerpts

Olduvai II: Exodus
Click on image to purchase

Click on image to purchase @ FriesenPress