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Tag Archives: interest rates
They’ve Done It Again
They’ve Done It Again The stars are back in their courses. The angels are back in the heavens. And the Perfections are back within sight… For merely 148 trading days after bottoming… the S&P returned to record heights today. The index closed the day at 3,389 — eclipsing its February 19 height of 3,386. Thus […]
Blain’s Morning Porridge – 21st August 2020 – John Law’s MMT revisited
Blain’s Morning Porridge – 21st August 2020 – John Law’s MMT revisited “Earlier today apparently a woman rang the BBC and said she had heard that there was a hurricane on the way. Well if you are watching, don’t worry, there isn’t.” It’s blowing a full hooley out there this morning, which is very bad news […]
As the Bubble Slowly Pops, the Economic Chain Reaction Is Now in Progress
As the Bubble Slowly Pops, the Economic Chain Reaction Is Now in Progress Much has been written about the economic consequences of covid-19, yet, just as in many of the analyses of the Great Depression and the 2008 crisis, the years of accumulating debt preceding the event do not attract the attention they deserve. Covid-19—or […]
Central Bank Crisis Expanding
Central Bank Crisis Expanding QUESTION: Hi Marty.You mentioned in the blog that all European sovereign debt may end up being converted into perpetual bonds. Will it be through debt mutualization or will each country have each own Consol? Could you please elaborate on how this conversion would affect pension funds, banks, social security and individual investors? […]
After the Fed Punts, the ECB Throws Another Hail Mary
After the Fed Punts, the ECB Throws Another Hail Mary Last week FOMC Chair Jerome Powell and company did, essentially nothing, at their June meeting. They held interest rates at 0.25%, did not expand QE nor did they indicate any changes. This wasn’t what the market wanted, as the bond were pushing the Fed to […]
US Money Supply – The Pandemic Moonshot
US Money Supply – The Pandemic Moonshot Printing Until the Cows Come Home… It started out with Jay Powell planting a happy little money tree in 2019 to keep the repo market from suffering a terminal seizure. This essentially led to a restoration of the status quo ante “QT” (the mythical beast known as “quantitative […]
Minsky Melt-up Explained?!?
Minsky Melt-up Explained?!? America (and the world at large) are in the midst of an entirely predictable demographically driven crisis, between an economic/financial system requiring infinite growth and a very finite human/physical world (detailed HERE, or HERE). This mismatch will only become more acute for decades to come. As the growth of demand is decelerating, central banks […]
What Horrified Fund Managers, Banks & UK’s Pension Minister Said About the Bank of England’s Sudden “We Don’t Rule Out” Negative Interest Rates
What Horrified Fund Managers, Banks & UK’s Pension Minister Said About the Bank of England’s Sudden “We Don’t Rule Out” Negative Interest Rates “The stimulus the country urgently needs is not experimental and dangerous monetary policy.” Andrew Bailey, the recently appointed governor of the Bank of England (BoE), is considering going where no other BoE […]
Here’s What Would Happen If The Fed Launched Negative Rates
Here’s What Would Happen If The Fed Launched Negative Rates On Thursday, May 7, an unprecedented event took place: after a violent repricing in Eurodollar contracts as near as November 2020, for the first time ever the market was pricing in that negative interest rates are not only coming to the US, but would arrive […]
The Way of the Tao Is Reversal
The Way of the Tao Is Reversal As Jackson Browne put it: Don’t think it won’t happen just because it hasn’t happened yet. We can summarize all that will unfold in the next few years in one line: The way of the Tao is reversal. This is the opening line of Chapter 40 of Lao Tzu’s 5,000-character […]
Powell Needs To Immediately Address Negative Rates Or He Will Lose Control
Powell Needs To Immediately Address Negative Rates Or He Will Lose Control Today was a historic day, not for the latest algo-driven meltup in stocks, but because for the first time ever, fed fund futures priced in negative rates, first in January 2021 and shortly after, as recently as November 2020. In response to the […]
Banks Will Not Bail Out The Economy
Banks Will Not Bail Out The Economy These days, we hear a lot that banks were the problem in the 2008 crisis and now they are the part of the solution. Banking was not the main problem of the 2008 crisis, but one of the symptoms that indicated a more serious disease, the excess risk taken by […]
Credit Markets – The Waiting Game
Credit Markets – The Waiting Game Everything and the Kitchen Sink After the first inter-meeting rate cut in early March, we opined that further rate cuts were a near certainty and that “not-QE” would swiftly morph into “QE, next iteration” (see Rate Cutters Unanimous for the details). As it turned out, the monetary mandarins did not even […]
The House that Ben Built
The House that Ben Built Yes, this collapse does portend to be far worse than the last and it’s a very different type of financial collapse too. After credit markets froze in the subprime crash of 2008-2009 Ben Bernanke and the Fed conjured up a number of monetary tricks to keep the system afloat. POMO, […]
Fed Disaster: S&P Futures Crash, Halted Limit Down; Gold, Treasuries Soar After Historic Fed Panic
Fed Disaster: S&P Futures Crash, Halted Limit Down; Gold, Treasuries Soar After Historic Fed Panic The Fed may have a very big problem on its hands. After firing the biggest emergency “shock and awe” bazooka in Fed history, one which was meant to restore not just partial but full normalcy to asset and funding markets, Emini futures are […]
