When we discussed Saudi Arabia’s shocking decision on Saturday to reverse on years of prudent oil policy following Friday’s stunning collapse of OPEC+, with the kingdom now set to obliterate the OPEC cartel by flooding the market with heavily discounted oil in hopes of sending its price plunging, crippling competitors (such as US shale producers) and capturing market share (a repeat of what Saudi Arabia unsucessfully attempted back in Nov 2014), we made the following assessment on what the Saudi decision could to the price of oil once oil resumed on Sunday:
According to preliminary estimates, with Brent trading at $45, a flood of Saudi supply as demand is in freefall, could send oil into the $20s if not teens, in a shock move lower as speculators puke on long positions in what Goldman calls periodically a “negative convexity” event…. Oil traders are looking to historical charts for an indication of how low prices could go. One potential target is $27.10 a barrel, reached in 2016 during the last price war. But some believe the market could go even lower.
… those wondering what is the worst case scenario for oil prices, consider that Brent traded at an all time low of $9.55 a barrel in December 1998, during one of the rare price wars that Saudi Arabia has launched over the last 40 years… similar to just now.
In retrospect, one difference between the oil supply shock of 1998 and now, is that back then there was no concurrent demand shock. Instead, to find the last combo of both a positive oil supply shock and a massive negative demand shock, one would have to go to the depths of the Great Depression as Rapidian Energy notes in a WSJ article:
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…