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“I’ve Never Seen A Market Like This”: Goldman Sees Shortages Of Everything, “You Name It, We’re Out Of It”

February 7, 2022

“I’ve Never Seen A Market Like This”: Goldman Sees Shortages Of Everything, “You Name It, We’re Out Of It”

It’s probably not the endorsement Biden’s flailing administration wanted.

In a time when social networks have been swamped with photos of empty shelves from across the nation, Goldman’s head commodity strategist and one of the closest-followed analysts on Wall Street, said he’s never seen commodity markets pricing in the shortages they are right now.

“I’ve been doing this 30 years and I’ve never seen markets like this,” Currie told Bloomberg TV in an interview on Monday. “This is a molecule crisis. We’re out of everything, I don’t care if it’s oil, gas, coal, copper, aluminum, you name it we’re out of it.”

In a reversal of the event from April 2020, when WTI oil briefly hit a negative $40 per barrell as speculators paid others to take deliverable oil contracts off their hands as they had no storage for it, futures curves in several key markets are trading in super-backwardation – a structure that indicates traders are paying bumper premiums for immediate supply. The downward sloping shape in prices is generally taken to mean commodities are severely undersupplied.

The shortage of, well, everything has translated into record price of virtually all commodities: the Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index, which tracks 23 energy, metals and crop futures, has touched a record this year. That has been driven in part by surging oil prices, which have hit their highest level since 2014 and earlier today Brent rose as high as $94, assuring even more pain at the pump.

Separately, assuring even more pain for logistics, Bloomberg notes that diesel futures are in their strongest backwardation since 2008, excluding expiry days.

Additionally, all six of the main industrial metals traded on the London Metal Exchange moved into backwardation late last year, in a rare synchronized bout of tightness last seen in 2007.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Gold “Underpriced,” Heading Back to $2,000: Goldman Sachs

July 13, 2021

Gold “Underpriced,” Heading Back to $2,000: Goldman Sachs

Gold Underpriced, Heading Back to 2,000 Says Goldman Sachs

Image by Zlaťáky

This week, Your News to Know rounds up the latest top stories involving gold and the overall economy. Stories include: Gold’s path to $2,000 is open, falling Treasury yields are a major tailwind for gold, and gold, silver and platinum all make for good investments in the current climate.

Goldman Sachs: Gold underpriced at $1,800, ready to move back to $2,000

Even though gold met many bullish expectations last week by consistently closing above $1,800, Goldman Sachs analyst Mikhail Sprogis thinks the move could be the start of a much larger uptrend. Sprogis, who had already called for $2,000 gold in a previous note, stuck to his forecast and said that gold is well-positioned regardless of which direction stock markets are headed.

As of right now, Sprogis said that gold is being pressured by what is likely excessive optimism, with investors buying into stocks and betting on a strong global economic recovery. If inflation expectations remain mitigated as they have been after the latest Federal Reserve meeting, Sprogis says that gold is scheduled to move up gradually with subdued real interest rates and a rise in emerging market wealth.

Interest rates matter for gold because sovereign bonds, especially U.S. Treasury bonds, are viewed alongside gold as safe-haven assets. Unlike gold, bonds pay interest to investors. So when bond yields drop, the opportunity cost for holding gold instead of bonds diminishes. Lower interest rates make gold a more attractive safe haven.

Gold’s price rise could be much quicker and stronger if the global economy disappoints or if “transitory” inflation emerges as a bigger threat than is currently believed. In this scenario, Sprogis said prices will be supported further by gold’s current undervaluing and relatively low portfolio allocation among the majority of investors.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The UNFAIRNESS Economy

April 11, 2020

The UNFAIRNESS Economy

Bailouts for the rich. Barely anything for you.

Award-winning investigative journalist Matt Taibbi penned perhaps the most iconic condemnation of the bankers who created (and subsequently got bailed out during) the Great Financial Crisis:

The first thing you need to know about Goldman Sachs is that it’s everywhere. The world’s most powerful investment bank is a great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity, relentlessly jamming its blood funnel into anything that smells like money.

Tens years later, we find ourselves facing another crisis which, while triggered by the coronavirus instead of housing loans, has similar roots in a financial system made vulnerable by the unfair plunder of big banks and hedge funds — who are now being bailed out at vastly higher expense than in 2008.

Sadly, it seems we’ve learned very little over the past decade.

And as $trillions and $trillions in “rescue” stimulus are starting to be deployed by Congress and the Federal Reserve, it’s once again the financial power elite and corporate boardroom bigwigs who are receiving immediate and complete relief from the consequences of their actions.

But what will regular folks like you and me get? Crumbs, if anything.

And as taxpayers, we’re ultimately footing the bill (once again).

Given his intensive knowledge of the inner workings of Wall Street and its entanglement with the DC political machine, Taibbi explains how the inequity, abuse and fraud in today’s “Unfairness Economy” has become standard operating procedure — and will remain so until a serious enough social uprising takes place.

First, watch this 2-minute trailer:

And then click here to enjoy Peak Prosperity’s full interview with Matt Taibbi:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Gold Gains 3% To $1,672 and Silver Surges 5% To $15.40; Goldman Warns Of $3 Trillion Explosion In U.S. Debt

April 7, 2020

Gold Gains 3% To $1,672 and Silver Surges 5% To $15.40; Goldman Warns Of $3 Trillion Explosion In U.S. Debt

◆ Gold surged 2.9% and silver by 5% yesterday, with futures leading the way higher with gold reaching it’s highest price in more than seven years

◆ Investors are diversifying into safe haven gold to hedge themselves from the coming destruction of balance sheets, trillions and trillions of fiscal and monetary stimulus and a likely economic depression

◆ JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Jamie Dimon has blamed the pandemic on creating a “major major downturn” (see News below) and potentially an economic depression

◆Goldman Sachs have warned that the emergency “stimulus” may lead to an explosion of US national debt by about $4 trillion in just two years (see News below). This is not including the trillions in monetary stimulus by the Federal Reserve to bail out Wall Street including most large financial service providers including the mortgage sector and banks

◆ The “Everything bubble” is bursting before our eyes which is evident in the stock market crashes. Property and bond market bubbles will soon burst and confidence in the dollar and other fiat currencies will soon begin to evaporate

◆ Gold’s utility as a safe haven is again being experienced by those who own it. Gold is outperforming and has delivered a 12% dollar return in 2020 year to date, exactly when they need a safe haven and a source of returns as stocks and other assets under perform. Gold has seen even greater returns in other currencies and is 15% higher in euros and 19% higher in pounds year to date.

◆ The only major asset to outperform gold year to date is the U.S. 30 year bond. This out performance is unlikely to continue as the 30 year bond cannot go much higher. We are near 0% interest rates despite the appalling fiscal, financial and economic outlook for the U.S.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“The Biggest Decline Ever”: Goldman Now Sees US GDP Crashing 34% In Q2

March 31, 2020

“The Biggest Decline Ever”: Goldman Now Sees US GDP Crashing 34% In Q2

Just over a week ago, when we reported on the ongoing feud between Goldman and JPM to come up with the most terrifying GDP forecast for the US, and when we asked if a Second Great Depression has begun after Goldman’s chief economist Jan Hatzius slashed his Q2 GDP forecast from -5% to -24%, we said “we expect Goldman to take the machete to this analysis as well in the coming days, because if the US economy is indeed paralyzed for at least one quarter, then all of GDP could be lost.”

We were right, because early on Monday morning Goldman’s Haztius did just that, and in a report titled “The Sudden Stop: A Deeper Trough, A Bigger Rebound”, he writes that he is “making further significant adjustments to our GDP and employment estimates. We now forecast real GDP growth of -9% in Q1 and -34% in Q2 in qoq annualized terms (vs. -6% and -24% previously) and see the unemployment rate rising to 15% by midyear (vs. 9% previously).”

Detailing the assumptions behind his latest revision, Hatzius explains that he has increased his estimates of the peak hit to services consumption, manufacturing activity, and construction, “in light of new evidence on the severity of the hit across the different sectors” and now expects the level of GDP in April to be 13% below the January/February trend, as shown in Exhibit 1. “We assume that this drag then fades gradually by 10% each month in the services industry and by 12.5% in the manufacturing and construction industries.”

Behind the core of the drop Goldman sees a 19% annualized drag from services consumption on Q2 growth, on top of a 3pp drag on Q1 growth. as shown in the next chart.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Texas Or Canada: Where Will Oil Hit $0 First

March 30, 2020

Texas Or Canada: Where Will Oil Hit $0 First

Looking at the future of oil prices, Goldman was downright apocalyptic in its short-term forecast, when in a note published this morning, the bank’s chief commodity strategist Jeffrey Currie speculated that as the current production glut “shock” cripples the crude transportation networks, “a producer would be willing to pay someone to dispose of a barrel, implying negative pricing in landlocked areas.” To wit:

The global economy is a complex physical system with physical frictions, and energy sits near the top of that complexity. It is impossible to shut down that much demand without large and persistent ramifications to supply. The one thing that separates energy from other commodities is that it must be contained within its production infrastructure, which for oil includes pipelines, ships, terminals, storage facilities, refineries, and distribution networks. All of which have relatively small and limited spare capacity. We estimate that the world has around a billion barrels of spare storage capacity, but much of that will never be accessed as the velocity of the current shock will breach crude transportation networks first, which we are already seeing evidence of around the world. Indeed, given the cost of shutting down a well, a producer would be willing to pay someone to dispose of a barrel, implying negative pricing in landlocked areas.

A quick look at two of the most popular landlocked oil producing areas demonstrate that Goldman is spot on, and as the following chart shows as of this moment Texas Midland WTI was trading at just baove $10/barrel, while the price of oil produced in the notoriously landlocked Western Canada, as represented by Canada Western Selected index, was just above $4 per barrel, or a little more than what a gallon of gas costs in California.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“This Is The Largest Economic Shock Of Our Lifetimes”: Goldman Sees Negative Prices Amid Oil Devastation

March 30, 2020

“This Is The Largest Economic Shock Of Our Lifetimes”: Goldman Sees Negative Prices Amid Oil Devastation

Over the weekend, we reported that with the oil industry oversupplied by a mindblowing 20 million barrels daily as roughly 20% of total global output ends up unused in a world economy that has ground to a halt, and instead has to be parked in storage either on land or sea, the unthinkable is about to happen: oil storage space is about to run out, and as that happens the price of oil will continue sliding ever lower and lower until it finally goes negative as some such as Mizuho’s Paul Sankey predict it will, over the next few months, leading to an unprecedented shockwave across the global energy market.

Then overnight, more eulogies for the oil market emerged, with Bank of America writing that oil has now slumped “into the abyss” and it expects to see the “steepest decline in global oil consumption ever recorded, with our base case reflecting a 12mn b/d drop in 2Q20 and a 4.5mn b/d contraction on average for the year” and on a net basis, BofA now expects global oil demand to contract by almost 17mn b/d in April with consumption recovering modestly into 3Q20 and beyond.

The bank also adjusted its oil price forecasts for 2020 and 2021 down to $37 and $45/bbl for Brent and to $32 and $42/bbl for WTI respectively, but in the near-term, it sees both benchmarks temporarily trading in the teens in the coming weeks.

However, by going all “there will be blood” on oil, BofA has only caught up where Goldman has been for the past two weeks, ever since it predicted that the “physical end was near.” Meanwhile, in a note of unprecedented gloom, Goldman now says that “the physical end is here” as the coronacrisis goes global.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Oil Plunges To 17 Year Low As One Bank Predicts Negative Prices

March 17, 2020

Oil Plunges To 17 Year Low As One Bank Predicts Negative Prices

Late on Tuesday, WTI plunged as low as $26.20 taking out the lows from the 2015/2016 oil recession, and sending it to a level last seen when US president was George W. Bush, people were listening to Get Busy by Sean Paul and Dogville was one of the most popular movies: May 2003.

While there was no immediately clear catalyst, earlier in the day, Goldman’s commodities team published a report in which they discuss the need for commodity prices to drop below cash costs to generate supply curtailments as demand losses across the complex are now unprecedented, as Goldman now believes oil use is down an unprecedented 8 million b/d:

Large commitments from core-OPEC for April/May deliveries pushes the net supply increase near c.3m b/d, which, when combined with the demand losses, results in an April/May surplus of 7mb/d, which will likely breach system capacity during 2Q20.

As Goldman’s Jeffrey Currie wrote, “the system strain creates a physical end, even though when COVID-19 will end is unknown, pushing our forecasts to shut-in economics. We now forecast 3m GSCI -25%.” As a result of price wars in oil and gas and uncertain policy responses in bulks and base metals, all a direct result of the sharp fall in demand resulting from the COVID-19 containment measures, Goldman has cut its 2Q Brent price target to just $20/bbl from $30/bbl.

But that was not the worst of it for what little is left of oil bulls.

Outdoing not only Goldman, but virtually every single bearish oil analyst in existence, Mizuho’s Paul Sankey not only estimated that Goldman is too optimistic by half, calculating a whopping 15MM b/d in oversupply currently, but that crude prices could go negative – yes, as in you would be paid to take delivery – as Saudi and Russian barrels enter the market.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Assume Crash Positions: Goldman Cuts Brent Price Target To $30 “With Possible Dips Near $20”

March 8, 2020

Assume Crash Positions: Goldman Cuts Brent Price Target To $30 “With Possible Dips Near $20”

When we discussed Saudi Arabia’s shocking decision on Saturday to reverse on years of prudent oil policy following Friday’s stunning collapse of OPEC+, with the kingdom now set to obliterate the OPEC cartel by flooding the market with heavily discounted oil in hopes of sending its price plunging, crippling competitors (such as US shale producers) and capturing market share (a repeat of what Saudi Arabia unsucessfully attempted back in Nov 2014), we made the following assessment on what the Saudi decision could to the price of oil once oil resumed on Sunday:

According to preliminary estimates, with Brent trading at $45, a flood of Saudi supply as demand is in freefall, could send oil into the $20s if not teens, in a shock move lower as speculators puke on long positions in what Goldman calls periodically a “negative convexity” event…. Oil traders are looking to historical charts for an indication of how low prices could go. One potential target is $27.10 a barrel, reached in 2016 during the last price war. But some believe the market could go even lower.
… those wondering what is the worst case scenario for oil prices, consider that Brent traded at an all time low of $9.55 a barrel in December 1998, during one of the rare price wars that Saudi Arabia has launched over the last 40 years… similar to just now.

In retrospect, one difference between the oil supply shock of 1998 and now, is that back then there was no concurrent demand shock. Instead, to find the last combo of both a positive oil supply shock and a massive negative demand shock, one would have to go to the depths of the Great Depression as Rapidian Energy notes in a WSJ article:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Goldman Issues Shocking Warning On Systemic Threat From Supply-Chain Collapse

February 24, 2020

Goldman Issues Shocking Warning On Systemic Threat From Supply-Chain Collapse

Having desperately avoided any discussion of a worst-case coronavirus scenario – or frankly any scenario that did not involve all time highs for stocks – for over a month, suddenly the market is obsessing with what a complete paralysis of China could mean for the world, not just in terms of millions in small and business companies shuttering and the financial sector collapsing under the weight of trillions in bad loans, but specifically how global supply chain linkages could cripple commerce across the world as corporations suddenly find themselves unable to find economic alternatives if China indeed goes dark.

However, as long-time readers may recall, the problem with trying to model supply chains shocks, especially in today’s “Just In Time” world, is that this task is virtually impossible as such a simulation very quickly reaches impossible complexity, something we first described in 2012 in our article “A Study In Global Systemic Collapse“, which referred to the FEASTA article titled “‘Trade-Off: Financial System Supply-Chain Cross-Contagion” which showed that contagion within supply chains could quickly lead to wholesale, systemic collapse due to non-linear bifurcations between sequential phase states.

Not for nothing, this is how we described the study back in 2012: “think of the attached 78-page paper as Nassim Taleb meets Edward Lorenz meets Malcom Gladwell meets Arthur Tansley meets Herman Muller meets Werner Heisenberg meets Hyman Minsky meets William Butler Yeats, and the resultant group spends all night drinking absinthe and smoking opium, while engaging in illegal debauchery in the 5th sub-basement of the Moulin Rouge circa 1890.”

And while there was far more in the report, one section was notable – the one discussing how relentless central bank intervention has made the global system far more brittle, or as Taleb would call it, extremely not anti-fragile:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Chinese Firms Ask For Billions In Loans Amid Virus Outbreak

February 10, 2020

Chinese Firms Ask For Billions In Loans Amid Virus Outbreak

In response to the economic paralysis brought about by the coronavirus, Chinese banks are offering billions of dollars in loans to Chinese companies, according to two banking sources via Reuters.

About 300 Chinese firms, including top food delivery company Meituan Dianping and smartphone maker Xiaomi, have requested upwards 57.2 billion yuan ($8.2 billion) in loans to prevent a hard landing as China’s economy grinds to a halt.

The sources said the firms seeking loans are either the hardest hit or have an active role in the control of the virus outbreak.

Evercore ISI Chairman Ed Hyman warned last week that China’s GDP growth could post “zero for the first quarter … China is really slowing and that’s worrying people for sure.”

“We are so solid,” Hyman said. “It’s not the virus, it’s the trade that matters. People are not going out. They are not shopping, and that’s what’s hurting particularly China.”

The scale of disruption in China is already staggering and is already spreading worldwide… and fast, China is effectively shut down and goods are now stranded in floating quarantines.

As Goldman noted here, the overall impact on global growth is about a 2% cut in Q1…

Extended factory closings and supply chain disruptions have forced many companies to request loans for “fast-track approvals and preferential rates,” the sources said.

The sources reviewed several lists of companies that Chinese banks will be distributing loans to. They said no official data is showing total loans requested.

The list includes pharmaceutical firms and restaurants, who’ve requested help from banking authorities.

“Banks will have the final say on lending decisions,” one of the sources said. “The interest rates are likely to be on par with those offered to banks’ top clients.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Wealthy Are Hoarding Physical Gold

December 11, 2019

The Wealthy Are Hoarding Physical Gold

The world’s rich are hoarding gold – this according to data buried in a recent Goldman Sachs note to clients.

In the note published over the weekend, Goldman recommended diversifying long-term bond holdings with gold, citing “fear-driven demand” for the yellow metal.

Hedge funds and other large speculators boosted their bullish bets on gold by 8.9% through the week ended Dec. 3, according to government data released last Friday. That represents the biggest gain since the end of September.

The Goldman note cited political uncertainty and recession fears as the catalyst for the move toward gold. It also mentioned worries about a wealth tax, increasing interest in Modern Monetary Theory (essentially money-printing) and the current loose central bank monetary policy.

Data buried in the note also revealed that owning physical gold appears to be the preferred method to “hedge against tail events” by the rich.

Since the end of 2016 the implied build in non-transparent gold investment has been much larger than the build in visible gold ETFs.”

Goldman said the data is consistent with reports that vault demand is surging globally.

Trade data implies that gold in storage has increased far more rapidly than is reflected by financial market instruments, indicating a widespread preference for physical gold instead of gold-linked financial assets … Political risks, in our view, help explain this because if an individual is trying to minimize the risks of sanctions or wealth taxes, then buying physical gold bars and storing them in a vault, where it is more difficult for governments to reach them, makes sense.
“Finally, this build can also reflect hedges by global high net worth individuals against tail economic and political risk scenarios in which they do not want to have any financial entity intermediating their gold positions due to the counter-party credit risk involved.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“Not A QE” Begins: Fed Start Buying $60BN In Bills Per Month Starting Next Week

October 11, 2019

“Not A QE” Begins: Fed Start Buying $60BN In Bills Per Month Starting Next Week

Just one day after we laid out what Goldman’s revised forecast for the Fed’s “NOT A QE” will look like, which for those who missed it predicted that the Fed would announce “monthly purchases of about $60BN for four months, split across Treasury bills and short maturity coupon Treasuries, in order to replenish the roughly $200bn reserve shortfall and support the pace of growth in non-reserve liabilities”, the Fed has done just that and moments ago – well ahead of consensus expectations which saw the Fed making this announcement some time in November – the US central bank announced it would start purchasing $60BN in Bills per month starting October 15. This will be in addition to rolling over “all principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of Treasury securities and the continued reinvestment all principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities received during each calendar month.”

In short, the proposed schedule is virtually identical to the one Goldman “proposed” yesterday, one which sees the Fed purchase a grand total of $100BN or so in TSYs the near term, and one which is meant to “engineer a one-off level shift of roughly $200bn over the course of four months.“

But wait there’s more, because just as today’s surprising spike in repo use suggested, mere “NOT A QE” may not cut it, and just in case, in order to provide an “ample supply of reserves”, the Fed will continue with $75BN in overnight repos and $35 billion in term repos twice per week, “at least through January of next year.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

How Much Will Oil Surge When Trading Reopens

September 15, 2019

How Much Will Oil Surge When Trading Reopens

Now that Goldman has successfully sparked a near-frenzy of chaos, confusion (and market buy orders) ahead of tonight’s trading open, the only question is how high will oil surge. And according to some preliminary estimates, oil analysts expect crude prices to jump at least $5 to $10 a barrel at 6pm on Sunday after some 5% of world oil supply was pulled off the market after a drone strike hit a critical Saudi oil facility.

Saudi Aramco lost about 5.7 million barrels per day of output after several unmanned aerial vehicles on Saturday struck the world’s biggest crude-processing facility in Abqaiq and the kingdom’s second-biggest oil field in Khurais. And with Saudi Arabia admitting that it could take weeks to restore full production, Bloomberg reports that the Trump administration is ready to deploy the nation’s emergency oil reserves and help stabilize markets if needed.

While oil slumped 3% last week, dropping amid expectations of an Iran detente following John Bolton’s departure, expect a violent reversal when trading reopens tonight.

“This is a historically large disruption on critical oil infrastructure and these events represent a sharp escalation in threats to global supply with risks of further attacks”, wrote Goldman chief commodity strategist Damien Courvalin. “These events are therefore set to support oil prices at their open on Sunday, especially given recent growth concerns and low levels of positioning. The magnitude of such a price rally is difficult to estimate in the absence of official comments on the timeline and scale of production losses.”

Still, one can try to make some educated estimates of what happens next, with consensus gravitating to a $5-10 spike in kneejerk response.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Goldman: Here’s Why The Fed Is About To Shock The Market

June 16, 2019

Goldman: Here’s Why The Fed Is About To Shock The Market

As discussed earlier, and as both Bank of America and JPM explained, the biggest risk for the market next week is if the Fed not only doesn’t cut – the market assigns a very low probability to such a “pre-emptive” move – but fails to signal an aggressive dovish reversal in the form of a rate cut in July. And yet, despite its upbeat outlook – it still expects the S&P to close the year at 3,000, Goldman’s strategists are certainly taking the over on how hawkish the Fed will sound next week.

As Goldman’s chief economist Jan Hatzius writes, the bank expects “unchanged” policy at the June 18-19 FOMC meeting and sees the subjective odds of a June cut at only 10%. More importantly, while Goldman looks for a dovish tilt to the proceedings it won’t be nearly enough to appease markets that have aggressively priced rate cuts in the fall.

Barring an unlikely surprise on the funds rate, we expect the market to focus on four key developments:

the statement’s policy stance/balance of risks paragraph,
the number of participants projecting cuts in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP),
the extent of dovish changes to the statement and economic forecasts, and
the tone of Powell’s press conference.

Rather than Goldman’s standard “Then and Now” table, the chart below “plots the setup for next week’s meeting across three dimensions, as well as their averages ahead of three major dovish shifts: September 2007 (at which the Fed abandoned the hiking bias and cut 50bps in response to subprime turmoil), September 2010 (formally signaled QE2), and March 2016 (scuttled the hiking cycle until global risks abated). Here, Hatzius also shows the three-month evolution of these four variables: stock prices, IG credit spreads, and consensus GDP growth.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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