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The European Energy Crisis Is About To Go Global

The European Energy Crisis Is About To Go Global It was only a matter of time, really. In a globalized world, energy crunches can hardly remain regionally contained for very long, especially in a context of damaged supply chains and a rush to cut investment in fossil fuels. The energy crunch that began in Europe […]

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UK Tells People To Stop “Panic Buying” As “Winter Of Discontent” Fears Emerge

UK Tells People To Stop “Panic Buying” As “Winter Of Discontent” Fears Emerge UK politicians are in utter panic as similarities to the 1970s-style “winter of discontent” of shortages and socio-economic distress could rear its ugly head in the coming months, according to Reuters. A significant driver in what could very well be a hellacious winter […]

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US Meat Prices To Remain Elevated Amid Depleted Reserves

US Meat Prices To Remain Elevated Amid Depleted Reserves Beef, pork, and chicken in US cold storage warehouses have yet to recover from pandemic lows and could continue to support higher prices. New United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) data shows beef reserves dropped 7.7% from a year ago in August, poultry supplies fell 20%, […]

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The UK’s Green Gilt is Marketing Puff and a Pointless Distraction

The UK’s Green Gilt is Marketing Puff and a Pointless Distraction The UK attracted a record £137 bln order book for its £10 bln Green Gilt. But what does the Green Gilt achieve? Its marketing puff. It may disguise how ill-considered and ultimately self-defeating the Government’s rush to looking green has been. No matter how […]

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Is Evergrande a symptom of deeper malaise?

Is Evergrande a symptom of deeper malaise? Evergrande’s imminent default is rocking markets – but few believe the collapse of a Chinese property developer could trigger a global financial crisis. What if Evergrande is just a symptom of a deeper malaise within the Chinese economy and its political/business structures? Maybe there is more at stake […]

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China’s Crackdown on Debt, Tech & Evergrande Sends Frazzled Wall Street Titans to China

China’s Crackdown on Debt, Tech & Evergrande Sends Frazzled Wall Street Titans to China The property sector and its debts are possibly the biggest financial mess in China’s history. The crackdowns by Chinese authorities on some of the biggest hype-and-hoopla industries have sent investors heading for the exits. There is a crackdown on debt to […]

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It’s all connected: The natural gas market and its casualties

It’s all connected: The natural gas market and its casualties Natural gas was supposed to be the so-called bridge fuel to the low-carbon renewable energy economy. It was abundant, cleaner to burn than oil and coal, and more and more available to anyone who wanted it as a global market in liquefied natural gas (LNG) […]

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Why did the Taliban Win? Lessons From Ancient History

Why did the Taliban Win? Lessons From Ancient History How did the Taliban manage to defeat the most powerful army in the world? One word: corruption. It is not new, it has already happened in many other cases in history. Here, I propose a comparison of the recent Taliban campaign with the case of the Numidian wars […]

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Rabobank: As With Evergiven, Evergrande Is Just The Symtpom Of Far Larger Problems

Rabobank: As With Evergiven, Evergrande Is Just The Symtpom Of Far Larger Problems It’s Ever Something On 23 March, the giant cargo vessel Evergiven got stuck in the Suez Canal and blocked it for six days. Obviously, this dominated global headlines. Even Joe Shmoe could see global supply chains were not operating efficiently because of […]

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Evergrande Misses Debt Payments Due Monday As World’s Richest Banker Says China’s “Lehman Moment” Has Arrived

Evergrande Misses Debt Payments Due Monday As World’s Richest Banker Says China’s “Lehman Moment” Has Arrived Wall Street analysts have been churning out commentary this week proclaiming that while Evergrande’s troubles pose a serious threat to the Chinese economy, it’s potential collapse doesn’t represent a “Lehman Moment”. As Thursday’s bond-interest deadline looms, analysts at Mizuho […]

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The case for contingency planning

The case for contingency planning LONG-ODDS BET OR A PORTFOLIO OF SCENARIOS? An intelligent investor – as distinct from a gambler – doesn’t put all his or her money on a single counter. He doesn’t stake everything on a single stock, a single sector, a single asset class, a single country or a single currency. […]

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The Inflation Train Isn’t Anywhere Near Full Speed

The Inflation Train Isn’t Anywhere Near Full Speed Public domain photo from National Park Service Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and other members of the Fed have been using the term “transitory” to downplay the threat that the last 16 months of skyrocketing inflation would last. But inflation has been sharply on the rise since March 2020, with only […]

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Riptide in the World Economy

Riptide in the World Economy COMMENT: Marty, I think the storms are creating dangerous rip currents that just suck swimmers out to sea here in Jersey. Never hear about that in Florida. I guess that and taxes are what made you leave. LOL DK REPLY: Actually, I was caught in one when I was a teenager. My uncle […]

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Former Lehman Trader On “China’s Lehman Moment”

Former Lehman Trader On “China’s Lehman Moment” My name is Larry McDonald, that is the UK cover above. In the years before the failure of Lehman Brothers, I ran a successful distressed credit business at what was the 4th largest investment bank in the U.S. – becoming one of the most consistently profitable traders in […]

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What Comes After Mind-Blowing Free-Money Blow-Off Spike in Retail Sales? A Spike Doesn’t Spike Forever

What Comes After Mind-Blowing Free-Money Blow-Off Spike in Retail Sales? A Spike Doesn’t Spike Forever Powered by price increases. Total retail sales – not adjusted for inflation, now a big factor – inched up 0.7% in August from July, to $619 billion (seasonally adjusted), up a stunning 18% from two years ago and 15.1% from a year […]

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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