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The Sword of Damocles

The Sword of Damocles

An economic worst-case scenario for the Israeli-Palestine war (Free)

On Tuesday, I published a post on X (Twitter), which summarized an economic worst-case scenario for the Israeli-Palestine war. It included 10 points:

  1. The conflict escalates into a regional war with the U.S. becoming directly involved.
  2. OPEC responds with an oil embargo.
  3. Iran closes the strait of Hormuz.
  4. The price of oil reaches $300/barrel.
  5. Europe succumbs into a full-blown energy crisis due to LNG shortage.
  6. Massive spike in energy prices reinvigorates inflation with central banks responding accordingly.
  7. Financial markets and the global banking sector collapse.
  8. Debt crisis engulfs the U.S. forcing the Federal Reserve to enact yet another financial market bailout.
  9. Petrodollar trade collapses.
  10. Hyperinflation emerges.

In this entry, I go through each step.

History rhymes?

In October 1973, Israel fought the Yom Kippur War against a coalition of Arab States led by Egypt and Syria. As a result of this, the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries proclaimed an oil embargo against western countries supporting Israel. In six months, the price of oil rose by nearly 300%, globally, and even more in the U.S., which at that time had become dependent on the Middle-Eastern oil.

In the current time, in the worst-case, Israel launches a major counter-offensive against Palestine leading to a declaration of war, to Israel, from Iran and Syria (others may join too). In this situation, the U.S. would be almost surely forced to respond and take part in the defense of Israel. The Ford carrier strike group (which includes world’s largest warship, USS Gerald R. Ford) has been dispatched to eastern Mediterranean and the Biden administration has been reported of considering sending another carrier strike group to eastern Mediterranean. There are also rumors of U.S. military cargo planes making routine trips to Israel.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

The New Global Oil Market Order Hangs In The Balance After Hamas Attacks Israel

The New Global Oil Market Order Hangs In The Balance After Hamas Attacks Israel

  • Palestinian political and military organisation Hamas launched coordinated multi-pronged attacks by land, sea, and air against Israel last weekend.
  • The potential for the Hamas attacks on Israel to suck in other Arab states into the conflict, and for it to then become another proxy war could have major ramifications for a large number of countries.
  • Soaring oil prices as a result of renewed tensions in the Middle East could lead to economy-crippling levels of inflation in the West.
Missile

In what turned out to be extraordinary timing, October 3 saw a Western coalition of France’s TotalEnergies and Italy’s Eni, plus Qatar Energy, apply for the second licensing round on oil and gas blocks 8 and 10 in Lebanese waters, while only four days later Palestinian political and military organisation Hamas launched coordinated multi-pronged attacks by land, sea, and air against Israel. Lebanon is a core member of the Iran-dominated Shia Crescent of Power, which both China and Russia have long seen as the foundation stone for their expansion of power across the Middle East as a whole, as analysed in depth in my new book on the new global oil market order. Lebanon’s political and military organisation, Hezbollah – like its Palestinian counterpart Hamas – vows Israel’s destruction and praised Hamas for its “heroic operation” against Israel on October 7. Both paramilitary groups receive multi-layered support from Iran’s financial, intelligence, and military networks and each of these support facilities are inextricably linked to China and Russia, as also fully examined in my new book. The potential for the Hamas attacks on Israel to suck in other Arab states into the conflict, and for it to then become another proxy war – to add to that still raging in Ukraine – between the U.S. and Russia (and China) appears large…

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Why Israel Blows Up Media Offices & Targets Journalists

Why Israel Blows Up Media Offices & Targets Journalists

Rather than reduce the cruelty, the Israeli government keeps trying to reduce accurate news coverage, writes Norman Solomon.

Palestinian solidarity demonstration in New York City on May 11. (Andrew Ratto, CC BY 2.0, Wikimedia Commons)

Israel’s missile attack on media offices in Gaza City last weekend was successful. A gratifying response came quickly from the head of The Associated Press, which had a bureau in the building for 15 years: “The world will know less about what is happening in Gaza because of what happened today.”

For people who care about truth, that’s outrageous. For the Israeli government, that’s terrific.

The AP president, Gary Pruitt, said “we are shocked and horrified that the Israeli military would target and destroy the building housing AP’s bureau and other news organizations in Gaza.”

There’s ample reason to be horrified. But not shocked.

Israel’s military began threatening and targeting journalists several decades ago, in tandem with its longstanding cruel treatment of Palestinians. Rather than reduce the cruelty, the Israeli government keeps trying to reduce accurate news coverage.

The approach is a mix of deception and brutality. Blow up the cameras so the world won’t see as many pictures of the atrocities.

Of course, there’s no need to interfere with journalists documenting the also awful — while relatively few — deaths of Israelis due to rockets fired by Hamas. In recent days the Israeli government has spotlighted such visuals, some of them grimly authentic, others fake.

The suffering in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is tragically real on both sides, while vastly asymmetrical. During the last 10 days, as reported by the BBC, 219 people have been killed in Gaza. In Israel, the number was 10. In Gaza, at least 63 of the dead were children. In Israel, two.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Netanyahu Threatens All-Out War After 90 Rockets Fired From Gaza

Netanyahu Threatens All-Out War After 90 Rockets Fired From Gaza

Monday witnessed significant escalation over Gaza as Palestinian Islamic Jihad sought to avenge the deaths of three commanders killed in Israeli air strikes on Gaza and Damascus the day before. 

Israeli media counted some 90 total rockets fired at Israel from the Gaza Strip throughout the day since the attacks began Sunday night, with the IDF claiming its Iron Dome defense system had intercepted the vast majority which came near populated areas.

Israeli airstrike on Gaza City on Monday, February 24, via AFP/The Times of Israel.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had earlier threatened to initiate broader war if the rocket fire didn’t cease. Despite an Islamic Jihad spokesman announcing a unilateral cease-fire by the early evening, the rocket fire was reported as continuing later into the night Monday. 

“We are now hitting with planes, tanks, and helicopters,” Netanyahu said while inspecting an Iron Dome unit in the south. “I’m talking about a war,” Netanyahu, who is entering a final week of campaigning before Israeli national elections, had further told Israel’s Army Radio station. “I only go to war as a last option, but we have prepared something you can’t even imagine.”

He also appeared to threaten to kill the heads of Hamas and Islamic Jihad if the rockets continued, saying:

“We will continue to strike until the calm returns. If there isn’t quiet, you’ll be next.

Some 30 rockets were initially fired out of the Gaza Strip on Sunday night, and it continued to escalate through Monday.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

How a Small Group of Pro-Israel Activists Blacklisted MintPress on Wikipedia

How a Small Group of Pro-Israel Activists Blacklisted MintPress on Wikipedia

For over ten years, Wikipedia has been a key focus of right-leaning, pro-Israel groups that have effectively weaponized the online encyclopedia as a means of controlling the narrative when it comes to the state of Israel’s more than 50-year-long military occupation of Palestine. 

For over a decade, pro-Israel and ultra-nationalist Israeli settler groups have sought to weaponize the popular online encyclopedia, Wikipedia, through concerted covert editing campaigns, offering Wikipedia editing courses to West Bank settlers and even formal alliancesbetween Israel and Wikipedia to allow Israelis to create and edit content in a variety of languages.

In recent years, this alliance between pro-Israel partisans and Wikipedia has stepped up, largely in response to the growth of the Boycott, Divest and Sanctions (BDS) movement, which seeks to pressure Israel to comply with international law with respect to occupied Palestine and the blockaded Gaza Strip. As a consequence, news outlets that consistently report on the success of BDS, such as MintPress News, have been targeted on Wikipedia by such partisans, who recently succeeded in blacklisting MintPress as a “reliable source” on the online encyclopedia.

In early June, a small number of partisan Wikipedia editors privately voted to blacklist MintPress News from use as a source on the online encyclopedia website at the behest of a Wikipedia editor who took issue with MintPress’ coverage of current events in Venezuela and Syria. At no point was MintPress ever asked to comment or allowed to respond to any of the allegations made and MintPress is unable to appeal the decision.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Hamas Launches Nearly 100 Rockets In An Hour On Israel In Massive Escalation


Hamas Launches Nearly 100 Rockets In An Hour On Israel In Massive Escalation

Palestinian militants launched over 90 rockets into Israel within the span of merely an hour early Saturday following following a tit-for-tat series of escalations that began with Gaza border incidents on Friday, including two Palestinians shot by Israeli soldiers during protests. Explosion caused by an Israeli airstrike in Gaza City on Saturday, May 4. Image source: AP/Times of Israel

According to early reports, there have been no casualties in Israel following the intense volley, and on the Gaza side one person has died as a result of Israeli Air Force retaliatory strikes with three others wounded, according to the Palestinian Ministry of Health. 

There are some unconfirmed reports of injuries on the Israeli side, including injuries of Israeli civilians after a rocket reportedlyimpacted a school in a town called Kiryat Gat. The IDF confirmed its Iron Dome defensive measures were active throughout the morning.

Embedded video

Replying to @sotiridi

#Breaking: Just in – Video of a rocket from #Gaza fell into a field in the region of #Ashkelon, destroying partially a side of a building, where one male was critically injured after debris hit him from the explosion in #Israel.

The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) launched a massive counterattack on Gaza targeting Hamas and Islamic Jihad, the IDF Spokesperson confirmed. 

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Triumph of Evil

The Triumph of Evil

The murder of Jamal Khashoggi inside the Saudi Arabian embassy in Turkey is unprecedented in its audacity. The response from Washington and the Canadian government is to sell more weapons to Saudi Arabia, weapons that are being used by the Saudis in their destruction of the Yemeni population. The Russian response, if the report I saw was not fake news, is to sell the Saudis the S-400 air defense system. https://on.rt.com/8pd0

What we can conclude from this is that armament profits take precedence over murder and genocide.

Genocide is what is going on in Yemen. I heard a report today on NPR that Yemeni are dying from starvation and from a cholera epidemic that has resulted from the Saudi destruction of the infrastructure in Yemen. The aid worker giving the report was obviously sincere and upset, but had difficulty connecting the high death rate to the Washington-sponsored war, blaming instead a 20% devaluation of the Yemen currency that raised food prices out of the reach of most Yemeni. She said that the solution to the crisis was to stabilize the currency!

It is difficult to understand why in the Western media and among Western politicians there is so much demonization of Iran, Syria, Venezuela, North Korea, China, and Russia. It is not these demonized countries that are murdering people in their embassies, conducting wars of aggression (war crimes under the Nuremburg Standard), and embargoing food and medical supplies to the populations that are being bombed. These crimes are being done by Saudi Arabia, Israel, and the United States and its NATO vassals.

Obviously, the Yemeni, like the Palestinians, don’t count. Their slaughter doesn’t cause a moral ripple in the West.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“Declaration Of War”: Trump Jerusalem Decision Sparks Outrage, Warning Of “A Fire With No End In Sight”

“Declaration Of War”: Trump Jerusalem Decision Sparks Outrage, Warning Of “A Fire With No End In Sight”

Today at 1pm, president Trump will announce the U.S. recognizes Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, but will sign a waiver delaying the relocation of the U.S. embassy from Tel Aviv to there for 6 months. Trump’s decision to unilaterally recognize Jerusalem upends decades of American policy in the Middle East and risks inflaming violence in an already-tense region. And sure enough, the announcement prompted an immediate – and furious – response sparking Arab, Muslim and European opposition to a move that would upend decades of U.S. policy and risk potentially violent protests.

While Israel naturally welcomed the news, Palestinian officials declared the Mideast peace process “finished”, calling it a declaration of war, and Turkey announced it would host a meeting of Islamic nations next week to give Muslim countries’ leaders an opportunity to coordinate a response.

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and Jordan’s King Abdullah II, warned him the announcement would have “dangerous” repercussions for regional stability. Separately, the Palestinian delegate to the United Kingdom said on Wednesday that President Trump’s move to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel signals “a declaration of war” in the region. “He is declaring war in the Middle East, he is declaring war against 1.5 billion Muslims, hundreds of millions of Christians that are not going to accept the holy shrines to be totally under the hegemony of Israel,” Manuel Hassassian told BBC 4 Radio’s “Today.”

The Palestinians seek east Jerusalem as the capital of a future independent state and fear that Trump’s declaration essentially imposes on them a disastrous solution for one of the core issues in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. “There is no way that there can be talks with the Americans. The peace process is finished. They have already pre-empted the outcome,” said Palestinian official Hanan Ashrawi. “They cannot take us for granted.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Justin Trudeau’s Shame: Extending Carte Blanche to Israel

Justin Trudeau’s Shame: Extending Carte Blanche to Israel

Here’s a Middle East multiple choice question for you (warning: one of these will get you condemned by the government of Justin Trudeau).

Would you rather that the Palestinian people 1) once again take up armed struggle in order to end Israeli occupation of their land or 2) pursue a non-violent strategy of Boycott, Divestiture and Sanctions (BDS) until such time as Israel recognizes the rights of the Palestinian people?

Advocating a return to the use of violence against Israel may or may not get you condemned by the Prime Minister. But it is definitely not okay to advocate for the non-violent BDS campaign. This was made clear by the government’s support of a Conservative resolution opposing the campaign “which promotes the demonization and de-legitimization of the State of Israel,” and called upon the government “to condemn any and all attempts by Canadian organizations, groups or individuals to promote the BDS movement, both here at home and abroad.”

This is a sickening violation of Canadians’ basic rights enshrined by Justin’s father 35 years ago. As the NDP’s Thomas Mulcair (who once described himself as an “ardent supporter of Israel”) said, the resolution “makes it a thought crime to express an opinion.” The NDP and the Bloc, joined by three Liberals, voted against the resolution.

That the Liberal government is so in alignment with Israel lobby groups raises a number of questions: Just who actually makes Canadian policy towards Israel? Did Trudeau think this through at all – such as, is this in Canada’s interests? But perhaps more to the point, is it even in Israel’s interests? Does the Trudeau government have some brilliant ideas about how to get Israel to the bargaining table? Or does it believe the current situation doesn’t need resolving? It smacks of political cowardice

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Abbas says Israel igniting ‘religious war’ – Middle East – Al Jazeera English

Abbas says Israel igniting ‘religious war’ – Middle East – Al Jazeera English.

Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian president, has accused Israel of igniting a “religious war” by allowing Jewish worshippers to visit an Islamic holy site in occupied Jerusalem.

Speaking at a ceremony on Tuesday in the West Bank city of Ramallah marking the 10th anniversary of the death of Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat, Abbas said the visits by the Jewish worshippers were provocative and that Palestinian worshippers would defend the site.

His remarks came as Israeli troops shot and killed a Palestinian demonstrator in clashes near the southern West Bank city of Hebron.

Imad Jawabreh, 21, was hit in the chest by bullets on Tuesday, Palestinian medics said, adding that the shooting occurred on a main road at al-Arroub refugee camp.

The official Palestinian news agency reported that a Palestinian man was shot in the chest and died while standing on the second floor of his house.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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