The recent deployment of missile launchers and jet fighters on Woody Island of the Paracel islands have put the spotlight on the South China Sea (SCS).
Fig 1: The 200 mile Economic Exclusion Zone claimed by China around Woody Island and the overlapping 108 nm range of the HQ-9 SAM system. Image via ISI. [Image Sat International] http://defense-update.com/20160218_woody_island_hq9.html
In this post, we focus on oil production around the SCS.
Oil production (crude and NGLs)
Fig 2: Black triangles denote country peaks, the red triangle shows the SCS peak
Oil production in 2015 was down around 14% from the peak in 2001.
Fig 3: China dominates all of South China Sea’s adjoining countries
Fig 4: China’s monthly production 2013-2015
Although production in 2015 was higher than in 2013 and 2014 it seems that production in the 4thquarter will not be much different from the previous years. A 100 kb/d difference is just 1% of China’s 2015 demand of 11.2 mb/d (IEA January Oil Market Report, p 57)
Chart of the Day: No turning back for China’s oil production
21/11/2015
China’s domestic oil production likely peaked this year and is about to enter a long-term structural decline, according to Nomura.
http://www.scmp.com/business/commodities/article/1881188/chart-day-no-turning-back-chinas-oil-production
Fig 5: Production of 3 oil majors in China
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
