Peak oil in the South China Sea (part 1)
The recent deployment of missile launchers and jet fighters on Woody Island of the Paracel islands have put the spotlight on the South China Sea (SCS).
Fig 1: The 200 mile Economic Exclusion Zone claimed by China around Woody Island and the overlapping 108 nm range of the HQ-9 SAM system. Image via ISI. [Image Sat International] http://defense-update.com/20160218_woody_island_hq9.html
In this post, we focus on oil production around the SCS.
Oil production (crude and NGLs)
Fig 2: Black triangles denote country peaks, the red triangle shows the SCS peak
Oil production in 2015 was down around 14% from the peak in 2001.
Fig 3: China dominates all of South China Sea’s adjoining countries
Fig 4: China’s monthly production 2013-2015
Although production in 2015 was higher than in 2013 and 2014 it seems that production in the 4thquarter will not be much different from the previous years. A 100 kb/d difference is just 1% of China’s 2015 demand of 11.2 mb/d (IEA January Oil Market Report, p 57)
Chart of the Day: No turning back for China’s oil production
21/11/2015
China’s domestic oil production likely peaked this year and is about to enter a long-term structural decline, according to Nomura.
http://www.scmp.com/business/commodities/article/1881188/chart-day-no-turning-back-chinas-oil-production
Fig 5: Production of 3 oil majors in China
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
