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ASIA, AUSTRALIA, BP STATISTICAL REVIEW, SOUTH EAST ASIA, VIETNAM

August 17, 2020

Peak oil in Asia Update June 2020 (part 3)

Fig 22: The peak of the largest producer China determined the Asian peak

From the countries in Fig 22 the 3rd and 4th largest oil importers are Thailand and Indonesia with approximately 1 mb/d each.

Fig 23: Thailand is the 3rd largest net importer in Asia …

Fig 24: … closely followed by Indonesia

Fig 25: Indonesia had higher oil consumption growth rates

Number 5 net importer is Australia with half million barrels/day

Fig 26: Australia’s net imports have dropped by 150 kb/d in 2019 due to a production increase

Fig 27: Vietnam experienced a tripling of net oil imports in the last 4 years
Fig 28: Malaysia is net importer since 2011

Fig 29: Other Asian countries have doubled net imports since 2015

Fig 30: By 2010 all these countries had become net oil importers

Previous links:

Peak oil in Asia Update June 2020 (part 2)
https://crudeoilpeak.info/peak-oil-in-asia-update-june-2020-part-2

Peak oil in Asia Update June 2020 (part 1)
https://crudeoilpeak.info/peak-oil-in-asia-update-june-2020-part-1

Peak oil in Asia: where will the oil come from for the Asian Century?

September 26, 2019

Peak oil in Asia: where will the oil come from for the Asian Century?

Asian oil production peaked above 8 mb/d for the period between 2008 and 2016 (with spikes in 2010 and 2015). The 2015 peak was mainly caused by peak oil in China. Since then Asia’s decline  was almost 800 kb/d or 9%.

Asia-Pacific-oil-production_BP-1965_2018
Fig 1: The Asian oil peak lasted 8 years

The rest of Asia peaked already in 2000 (the year Australia peaked) followed by a very modest decline of 1.1% pa. Let’s go through the countries one by one.

In the following, net oil imports are defined as the difference between oil consumption and production. Please see the note at the end of this post.

Indonesia_oil_production_vs_consumption_1965-2018
Fig 2: Indonesia is in terminal production decline since the 1990s
Australia_oil_production_vs_consumption_1965-2018
Fig 3: Australia’s net oil imports
Malaysia_oil_production_vs_consumption_1965-2018
Fig 4: Malaysia is a net importer since 2010
Vietnam_oil_production_vs_consumption_1965-2018
Fig 5: Vietnam’s net imports are increasing fast
Thailand_oil_production_vs_consumption_1965-2018
Fig 6: Thailand was always a net importer

Thailand’s consumption increases faster than production.

India_oil_production_vs_consumption_1965-2018
Fig 7: India’s consumption exceeded 5 mb/d in 2018

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Former Prime Minister Howard assumes US shale oil will provide for China’s oil demand growth

November 4, 2017

Former Prime Minister Howard assumes US shale oil will provide for China’s oil demand growth

Australia in Today’s World – some observations from former PM John Howard
https://aiiansw.tidyhq.com/public/schedule/events/16630-australia-in-today-s-world-some-observations-from-former-pm-john-howard

John Howard was happy to report that Chinese GDP growth is 6% and that a great future lies ahead for Australia.

In Q&A I asked him:

“Are you aware that Chinese oil production peaked in 2015? Therefore China is now where the US was in 1970 when US production peaked. That was followed by the Nixon shock in which the US cancelled the convertibility of the US$ to gold. In 2016, China’s oil demand growth was around half a million barrels per day. Multiply this by 10 years and where will 5 mb/d come from?”

Here are a couple of graphs which highlight the situation:

China_crude_production_2002-Jul2017_JODIFig 1: China’s oil production

China_demand_by_product_2015-Sep17_IEA-OMR

Fig 2: China’s oil demand by fuel

Note that only 24% of fuels (and 18% of growth) is petrol which means electric cars won’t help much.

Asia_oil_production_consumption_2005-2016_fill_in-2036

Fig 3: Asia Pacific oil production vs consumption

The above is my favorite graph to show that there cannot be perpetual growth in the “Asian Century”

Howard’s answer:

“I was never asked this question….from US shale oil I guess”

Let’s have a look at the US crude oil projections from the Energy Information Administration done in January 2017:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Peak Oil in Asia (part 1)

June 23, 2016

Peak Oil in Asia (part 1)

According to data recently published in BP’s 2016 Statistical Review Asian oil production remained at around 8.3 mb/d for 4 years now.

Asia_oil_production_1965-2015

Fig 1: Asian oil production

We see the dominance of China (52% of total). The peak for all other Asian countries together was already in 2000, 15 years ago, followed by decline of around 0.9% pa which has now accumulated to around 600 kb/d (equivalent to 60% of Australia’s consumption). Since 2000, China was able to offset this decline and grow the Asian system but this has stalled now as confirmed by the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics in China.

China_crude_oil_production_Jun2013-May2016

Fig 2: China crude oil production

Data are from here: http://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=A01

No matter how this Asian production plateau evolves it is dwarfed by ever rising Asian consumption. Let’s have a look at net oil imports country by country, alphabetically:

Australia_oil_production_vs_consumption_1965-2015

Fig 3: Australia’s oil balance

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Peak oil in the South China Sea (part 1)

March 6, 2016

Peak oil in the South China Sea (part 1)

The recent deployment of missile launchers and jet fighters on Woody Island of the Paracel islands have put the spotlight on the South China Sea (SCS).

Fig 1: The 200 mile Economic Exclusion Zone claimed by China around Woody Island and the overlapping 108 nm range of the HQ-9 SAM system. Image via ISI. [Image Sat International]   http://defense-update.com/20160218_woody_island_hq9.html

In this post, we focus on oil production around the SCS.

 Oil production (crude and NGLs)

Fig 2: Black triangles denote country peaks, the red triangle shows the SCS peak

Oil production in 2015 was down around 14% from the peak in 2001.

Fig 3: China dominates all of South China Sea’s adjoining countries

Fig 4: China’s monthly production 2013-2015

Although production in 2015 was higher than in 2013 and 2014 it seems that production in the 4thquarter will not be much different from the previous years. A 100 kb/d difference is just 1% of China’s 2015 demand of 11.2 mb/d (IEA January Oil Market Report, p 57)

Chart of the Day: No turning back for China’s oil production

21/11/2015
China’s domestic oil production likely peaked this year and is about to enter a long-term structural decline, according to Nomura.
http://www.scmp.com/business/commodities/article/1881188/chart-day-no-turning-back-chinas-oil-production

Fig 5: Production of 3 oil majors in China

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Asia depends on Middle East for 66 % of its oil imports

July 1, 2015

Asia depends on Middle East for 66 % of its oil imports

This post uses data from the inter area oil movement section of the BP Statistical Review published in June 2015. It is a continuation of an earlier post on Asian oil consumption and production

Global trade and Asia’s share

Total global oil trade steadily increased by 4.7% pa up to the US recession year of 2007, stagnated through the financial crisis but resumed growth in 2010, albeit at a much lower rate of 1.4% pa. In 2014, growth was only 0.5% while the volume of trade reached a record high of 56.7 mb/d.

Fig 1: Global oil trade and Asian oil imports

22.9 mb/d (40% of the global total) were imports into Asia, a whopping 9.6 mb/d up from 13.4 mb/d (30%) in 2001. That is +740 kb/d pa. Where did this oil come from?

Fig 2: Asian oil imports as part of global oil trade

Out of these 22.9 mb/d of Asian imports some 15.1 mb/d or 66% came from the Middle East, making Asia absolutely vulnerable to what is happening there.

Fig3: Asia oil imports time series

After the financial crisis in 2009 Asia’s total imports increased by an average of 4.7% pa (2014: 3.4%) while  imports from the Middle East increased by only 2% (2014: 1%).  This means that Asia has diversified its imports into West Africa, the Former Soviet Union, South & Central America and others. The share of the Middle East of total imports has therefore decreased from 73% in 2010 to 66% in 2014.

 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Asia’s oil consumption at record high while production peaked in 2010

June 24, 2015

Asia’s oil consumption at record high while production peaked in 2010

The annual BP Statistical Review has come out, as usual in June. In this post we focus on the Asia Pacific region. This is important because the Australian government has offered the help of “Team Australia” to build the “Asian Century”. The question no one asks (or wants to ask) is how much oil there is to carry Asia through the decades to come. No one can give an answer of course but it is clear that if past oil consumption and production trends continue the region will slide into a huge oil crisis.

Overview

Oil production in the Asia Pacific peaked in 2010 (China offshore!) at 8.4 mb/d while consumption continued to increase to 30.9 mb/d.

Fig 1: Asia-Pacific oil production and consumption

The difference between consumption and production (net imports) is now 73% of consumption, up from 68% ten years ago.

Oil consumption changes

Let’s zoom into the last 10 years. Consumption growth dropped from 6.2% in 2009/10 to 1.5% in 2013/2014 but this is still an annual 440 kb/d. If this reduced consumption growth were to continue an extra 2.2 mb/d would be needed by 2020 and 4.4 mb/d by 2025.

Fig 2:  Asia’s oil production and consumption changes since 2005

Since global crude oil production started to peak in 2005 (base year in above graph), Asia did remarkably well to suck additional oil out of the global market, around 6 mb/d

 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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